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US: National Survey (Politico / GWU 9/7-9)

Topics: National , poll

Politico / George Washington University / Tarrance Group (R) / Lake Research (D)
9/7-9/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Tarrance Group release)

National

State of the Country
28% Right Direction, 63% Wrong Track (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
43% Republican, 43% Democrat (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
25% Approve, 63% Disapprove (chart)

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 49% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 53 / 44 (chart)

2012 President
45% Republican, 42% Obama

Party ID
31% Democrat, 26% Republican, 33% independent (chart)

 

Comments
Paleo:

This poll in presidential races has been Republican-friendly, so a tie in the generic is good news for Democrats.

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cmbat:

Rut-roh. Giant silence from the right-wing peanut gallery.

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Field Marshal:

You mean on the 3-point lead for the generic Rep over Obama or the one single poll that shows a generic congressional ballot tied which, as history has shown, indicates a large swoon for the GOP? LOL.

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jack:

I guess democrats believe that since the generic is tied, then the Reps. and dems. will split seats, resulting in a net loss of zero seats for the Democrats. Dream on.

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melvin:

As more Americans learn about the wingnuts the gop have nominated, the more the Country is going to vote for Democrats.

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lat:

The Tea Party is God's gift to the democrats this year and is a double gift to Obama. I have said all along the dems are going to get their asses kicked in 2010 from the day Obama got elected (historical norms suggest that for the last 100 years). I still say they will lose seats and I want the gop to take the house. It's going to be a blast watching Johnny Bonehead have to deal with this lunatics en masse when he is trying to negotiate legislation.

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Field Marshal:

As more Americans learn about the wingnuts the gop have nominated, the more the Country is going to vote for Democrats.

Hopefully they won't forget about the wingnuts the Dems nominated and got elected over the last 4 years and the damage they have done to this country. I'm still betting the electorate will want to take a chance on possible GOP wingnuts versus keeping the current crop of Dem wingnuts that they KNOW will be destructive to the nation.

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melvin:

The media is 100% behind the GOP to recapture the house, because not one media person has asked the Republicans about debates...Not one teapartier is going to debate its opponents..Back in 1994 the GOP was very anxious to debate the Democrats,but this year you wont find a one....The nominees for Governor,Senator,and Congressman in the Republican party don't want to debate period,and the only network the major nominees in the republican party would go on is Fox News...Where in the hell is the major media? This is an outrage,and i cant believe the Republican party is getting away with this...The Major Networks are so worried about not having a story to talk about on election night that they is letting the GOP get away without debating its opponents, all because the Major Networks want a big story to talk about for weeks after the Midterms,and the Networks wont get one if the Democrats win back both Houses in the Congress.

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melvin:

FM: You are the best Republican on here who talks with good sense,and i don't consider you or StatyPolly a wingnut, because you guys really care about the Republican party future,but FM you have to agree with me that the GOP has nominated some crazy ass people.

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Field Marshal:

I wouldn't say they are crazy. That is the media talking and the left-wing partisans regurgitating it. I would say they are nominating people way outside the establishment/political class. This is congruent with the emergence of the TEA party- a revolution against the two-party inside-the-beltway system.

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Mike E:

Politico? Are you kidding me? What happened? Did a bunch of Obama lovin journolisters get tohether and make up some numbers that make "teh one" look good.

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melvin:

OMG: Scott Brown wonders if the Republican party dislikes Moderates..I got news for you Senator Brown HELL YEAH THEY DO!!!..Where in the hell have you been Senator Brown trying to find your ugly daughter a hubby,because i got news for you,and Senator Snowe,Graham,and Collins...YOU GUYS ARE NEXT ON THE TEAPARTY HITLIST.

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Cederico:

Again the generic ballot is much closer. With this poll, the CBS/NYT, the AP and PPP polls all showing a basic tie...I think it is fair for us to assume that the House going GOP is not a done deal.

My firm belief is that is DEMS can increase their voter participation they will hold both houses of Congress. They would still have significant losses in the House but not enough to lose control. I think these new polls give my belief some real validity.

If I were a DEM strategist I would continue the focus on the economy...blame Bush and GOP for getting us in this mess, state the DEMS rescued/stabilized it and the GOP is obstructing DEM efforts to get it growing faster. I would aggressively attack the GOP on favoring "tax cuts for the rich" while emphasizing my support for middle class tax cuts. Lastly I would highlight the "extreme" Tea Partyish positions of many GOP candidates --- privatizing Social Security, eliminating Medicare, etc.

This is a template to win for DEMS in this very difficult climate. Polls show (Gallup, new CBS, new Battleground) that the public doesn't blame Obama and the DEMS for the economy instead they blame Bush, they favor the DEMS tax cuts proposal and they are against GOP plans on Social Security and Medicare. And lastly the public has grown increasingly negative on the Tea Party movement so paint the GOP as hostage to it.

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Field Marshal:

melvin,

If you had a choice between Evan Bayh or Chuckie Schumer in a primary, who would you vote for? I would say most, if not all, libies on here would say Chuck Schumer. Does that mean you hate moderates?

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CompCon:

You people trying to pretend that this year isn't going to be a bloodbath for democrats is beyond pitiful now.

This is just among one of the very few polls that still show the dems ties with the reps (with 14% undecided).

Even with a tie in the generic ballot, especially something coming from far left-wing radical politico, the democrats lose the house.

This has both sides at only 43%. Which way will that 14% go? Only 44% Approve of Obama, so they're sure not going to vote for one of the toadies from his party so they can go help him destroy the country the rest of the way.

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Stillow:

hmm

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Aaron_in_TX:

"a revolution against the two-party inside-the-beltway system."

That was what they said after 1994, and those people ARE the establishment now.

For the most part, tea party people don't say much different from conservative republicans, they don't like republicans like Castle, who was someone who fit his state well.

In order to have a majority in America, you have to attract moderates. You cannot win consistently without them. Right now the democratic caucus houses most of the moderates. If the republicans continue to nominate hard line candidates, they will cede the middle to the democrats.

Most Americans do not want to eliminate social security or medicare. Some of the tea party people are against the philosophical principles of those programs (Angle). Most Americans just want them fixed and made sustainable. They feel the democrats aren't doing that. That doesn't mean they want them eliminated.

I read an article where the reporter asked one tea party protestor if he wanted medicare eliminated, like some in the tea party leadership do. He answered "No, my wife is sick. She needs it." So even the tea partiers themselves are unsure what they want, they just know they are unhappy right now.

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Stillow:

What is a moderate? Castle? He is a liberal. He voted for cap and trade, gets an F fro mthe NRA, said he woudl not vote to repeal HCR....he votes more with Dems than his own party, he is a RINO, not a moderate. If he wants to vote like a lib, he should join the Dem party and get out of the GOP.

Libs are trying to purify there own party, they just keep fialing....Bennet in CO, Lincoln in AR....libs just do not have the numbers to do it...conservatives do.

For a long time the Dems have been pushing the GOP to be more like them...and people are finally fed up. Dems won't admit it, but they are scared to death about conservatives retakignt he GOP....

We do not need any RINO's...Dems like rino's because when they pass crap legislation the rino's are used to say see, look, bi partisan, blame them too! If a guy is going to vote 90 percent of the time with the other party, then he belongs in the toher party....Castle voted against HCR, but ONLY because the Dems didn't need his vote...had he been the deciding vote, he would have gladly followed Pelosi.

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Field Marshal:

That was what they said after 1994, and those people ARE the establishment now.

Yup, if they are still around. This is why Tea partiers favor turnover, or even term limits.

Right now the democratic caucus houses most of the moderates. If the republicans continue to nominate hard line candidates, they will cede the middle to the democrats.

If you include the house, then probably, but the Dems currently hold most of the 100 competitive seats. After November 3rd, the GOP will be where most house moderates reside. In the senate, i would completely disagree with you, definitely more GOP moderates today and will be more after Nov.

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Field Marshal:

Welcome back Stillow!

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Stillow:

aaron - Time to come abck to Earth now. Cons and tea partiers do not want to get rid of SS or medicare, they want them altered and reformed so we can actually pay for them. Dems want the status quo.

and in case you missed it, so called Indy's or moderates as some call them have been running rightfor the past 18 months. Fiscal insantiy fro mthe left has driven them right.

The liberals new trick is to label everyone but liberals extremists. Extremist has become the new racist for the left. Sinc ehte whole your a racist thing stopped working, its now your an extremist.

The Dem party has moved so far left that anyone in the middle or right is an extrmeist to them. Meanwhile they are engaged in record spenidng, record deficits and seizing entire segments of our economy....and anyone who comes along and calls for SS reform is an extremist. Anyone who supports tax cuts and smaller g'ment is an extremist......liberals have driven themselves insane.

The tea party is soemthing Dems were not prepared for. They have no idea how to respond to this grass roots movement. At first they called the old ladies thugs and nazi's...now they have moved to extrmeist. It is not going to work. Conservatives now have a ground game for the left to contend with....the tea party is basically like acorn on steroids....and without the aid to hookers.

Dems talk about embracing moderates....which is a load of crap...sinc there party has moves so far left its about to fall off the bridge....recall the Gallup poll where msot americans now support the GOP in every major area on which party has better solutions.

The Dems have moved into la la land and while doing so are screaming extremist at everyone else. And they also try themselves to rid there party of what they call dino's...they tried and failed in CO and AR. They despise lieberman and wanted im out to by booting him in the primary.

Keep whining Dems................

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melvin:

FM: Of course ill vote for the Senator Schumer over Byah,but at the sametime i wont vote against Byah if i lived in Indiana, because he voted for a Republican bill....That's the difference between the Republicans,and the Democrats,because Democrats don't kick they're candidates out, if they vote for Republican bills.

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Stillow:

FM - Thanks. Feeling so much better. Though I cannot eat bread and potatos for 6 months......so I may end up plunging myself off a bridge shrotly.

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Field Marshal:

Fantastic post Stillow. Glad your back!!

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Stillow:

melvin - really, how about Lieberman? You kicked him out be nominating a far mroe liberal guy in the primary forcing him to run and win as an Indy...................

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Field Marshal:

Or how about Halter in AR. He didn't win the primary but he forced Lincoln to move way left essentially ruining any chance she had at re-election.

Both parties are moving away from centrists since today the electorate has fast and easy information on every candidate thanks to the internet and 24-hour news cycle.

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Paleo:

"He didn't win the primary but he forced Lincoln to move way left essentially ruining any chance she had at re-election."

LOL. Good one.

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tjampel:

Thank goodness for that. As a direct result of Halter's campaign Lincoln (with considerable help from Grassley) pushed through a very strict transparency provisions for derivatives trading. No way she'd have done that otherwise.

Of course this DOES suck, if you work on Wall St.

Grassley's lucky he didn't have to face a TP challenge himself for cooperating with the enemy.

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Cyril Washbrook:

I think the overarching point is that Lincoln probably would have lost whether she "tacked left" or not. Ignoring partisan/ideological bickering for a second, the reality is that the majority of ordinary people would still be unable to define what derivatives are, let alone understand how you could tack left or right on the issue.

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