Articles and Analysis


US: National Survey (Post 3/23-26)

Topics: poll

Washington Post
3/23-26/10; 1,000 adults, 3% margin of error
903 registered voters, 3% margin of error
*Results are for all adults except where otherwise indicated
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Post: story, results)


Obama Job Approval
53% Approve, 43% Disapprove (chart)
Health Care: 48 / 49 (chart)
Economy: 45 / 52 (chart)
Afghanistan: 53 / 35
Federal budget deficit: 43 / 52
Immigration: 33 / 43

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Adults: 47% Democratic candidate, 43% Republican candidate
Registered voters: 48% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 50 / 45
Republican Party: 40 / 55
Sarah Palin: 37 / 55 (chart)
Tea Party Movement: 41 / 39

On another subject: overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the changes to the health care system that have been enacted by Congress and the Obama administration?
46% Support, 50% Oppose (chart)

(IF OPPOSE) Would you support or oppose an effort to cancel these changes in the health care system, either by a new vote in Congress or through the courts?
86% Support, 9% Oppose

Do you think the Republicans in Congress did or did not make a good faith effort to cooperate with Obama and the Democrats on health care reform?
31% Did, 63% Did not

Do you think Obama and the Democrats in Congress did or did not make a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on health care reform?
48% Did, 47% Did not

Party ID
34% Democrat, 24% Republican, 38% independent (chart)


Speedo Bandit:

What and obviously skewed poll. These numbers should be thrown in the trash.



I wouldn't dismiss it so easily. The poll could certainly be an "outlier" but we're kind of in a new dynamic here. Let's see what other nat'l surveys fully post-HCR say. Plus, this is adults, not even registered voters, let alone likelys. And they are showing the "enthusiasm gap" wayyyy down, which I doubt Dems can keep as low 'til Nov (God knows they wanna try!). But the poll in itself, showing more Dem enthusiasm and actually acknowledging that nationally there are more Indys now than GOPers? The #s make sense in that context, if only that context alone.






I for one thinks its kinda cute watching libs actually buy into what liberal media like the Post / ABC puts out. I think they actually beelive the liberal media which makes it even more funny to me. These same libs jump and down and get all excited when Daily Kos releases a new poll with stuff they like. Then they all stand around with that deer in headlights look when things actually don't add up to what there media masters told them was true.

Its a good sideshow to get libs that feeling of warm and fuzzy they need so much, but that's the extent of it, just a sideshow.




I know you are seething inside about your taxes going up, in addition to the fact that the useless gop and tea party nutjobs went for broke and came up empty, but it's ok I am here to tell you that the poor, the disadvantaged, and the downtrodden 100% appreciate the sacrifice you are making (Ooh! Those undeserving, welfare sucking, SOB's are taking my money that I sweat bullets for!) with your wallet and your country thanks you for it.



I am actually very pleased with the numbers here.

BOBO got a nice 7-9 point bump right after the passage in both Gallup and Ras dailies. Ras had him at -9 net on 3/21, then up to just -2 on the first 3 days of past-passage polling on 3/26. As of today it's back down to -6 net negative.

Gallup had him tied at 47 as recently as 3/18, it went up to 51-42 in the first full 3 days after passage, and now it's back down to tied at 46, one of his worst numbers ever.

This WaPo poll obviously oversamples Dems and low income respondents, and yet this heavily pro-BOBO group still is heavily against Health Care junk that just passed.

a) Congress approval went down even lower since the passage. Lowest since 1994 in fact, in their own trend.

b) Item 8, support/oppose changes to healthcare - post passage oppose near all time high in their own trend since 8/09.

C) Item 9, happy/unhappy about the changes 47-51.

d) Item 10, will require EVERYONE to make changes to to their coverage - 60%, despite all the BOBO's lies on the subject.

e) Item 12, quality of HC overall in the long run better - 37, worse 44. Quality of YOUR HC better - 18, worse 44. Trend is not BOBO's friend here either.

f) Item 13, in the long run cost - will increase for YOU - 55%, cost increase overall 60%.

g) Weaken/strengthen Medicare 48/23

h) Increase deficit - 65%

And so on and so on and so on. Questions 5, 27, 32, 33, 34 held for later release. CANT WAIT.

This is pretty damning for BOBO and especially congressional Dems. This sample is VERY friendly on everything Dem, but they still have enough brains to despise this HC junk, AFTER the passage. fugly.



Here's the only bump that matters:

76% of registered Democrats are enthusiastic to vote this November while 75% of registered Republicans are enthusiastic.

As for all these great numbers form Staty Polly, how will folk feel in a few months when none of these predictions would come to pass? I never thought Americans would be so gullible to right wing propaganda and lies, but the HCR debate proves that wrong... The good news is that when the lies don't materialize, well then... things change... it certainly will take longer than a week, though, for Americans to figure that out. It took 4 years for Americans to figure out that Iraq was a giant boondoggle. Expectations are low... they should be easy to exceed.

Obama should have chosen a more liberal model for HCR rather than Romneycare... it probably would have been more popular... and even if it wasn't, a better policy would have resulted.


76% of registered Democrats are enthusiastic to vote this November while 75% of registered Republicans are enthusiastic.

Who told you this statistic is among registered voters? As far as I know, this is a poll of "adults," not "registered voters."



Read the quote again:

"76% of REGISTERED Democrats are enthusiastic to vote this November while 75% of REGISTERED Republicans are enthusiastic."

Now, maybe registered means registered at Macy's for their baby showers, but my guess is, when they say registered, it means registered voters.


Now, maybe registered means registered at Macy's for their baby showers, but my guess is, when they say registered, it means registered voters.

In which of the two links provided by Pollster.com is that quote contained?



The enthusiasm gap stat is so useless that Republicans had a 2% enthusiasm edge over Democrats in October, 2006 in the Washington Post poll, yet the Democrats went on to win 31 House seats one month later. The stats are in the results page of the new WAPO poll posted in this thread.


Field Marshal:


I didn't realize you were clairvoyant. Which prediction do you not think will come to pass? The increase in the deficit which the CBO says WILL happen? The gutting of medicare which is explicitly in the bill? That premiums will not increase that was also shown by the CBO to not be happening in the private market as well as was shown to occur in RomneyCare where premiums jumped double-digits for several years?

It is going to be extremely funny when the deficits increase exponentially and premiums also rise to see the Dems scramble to place blame on the reps or the insurance companies.

Obama is going to be toast in 2012 when people see their health insurance costs skyrocket and the elderly have trouble finding a doctor that accepts medicare.



There are few expenses during the pre-2014 initiation phase. Savings are accrued during this period to balance the startup costs in 2014. Other than some funds being allocated towards high risk pools in the states, there is little money being spent during this startup phase. The strongest deficit reduction of HCR is in the beginning, and at the end (after startup costs are implemented in the first few years after 2014). So, the deficit from HCR won't be an issue in 2012.

As for the Romneycare premium issue. Premiums in ALL of the Northeast are high and the increases in rates are no different in "socialist" MA as they are in NY, VT, NH, MN, NJ, etc. The costs of medical care are simply higher in these regions than anywhere else. BTW, unlike these other states, MA is now implementing strong cost cutting measures... measures that would have been impossible without the near universal pool that they now have. The current HCR law also implements other cost cutting measures that Romneycare does not.

The elderly should have no more problems finding a doctor in the future than they do now. Payments are not set to be reduced until after the IMAC commission starts in 2014, and doctors are quickly moving away from being independent sole proprietors to salaried employees of large medical centers. These centers are required to take Medicare patients by law (due to federal matching funds--they are what's called "consignment" hospitals. Almost every major hospital is a consignment hospital).

The taxes on high end plans do not even start until 2018, and there are limits to what insurers can charge starting in 2011. They must meet an 85% cost ratio, and any further price gouging would prevent them from participating in the exchanges in 2014.

No one can predict the future with any certainty, but if one is going to try, it's better to use facts rather than talking points.



Sure, enthusiasm stat is important, but in this case, not particularly conclusive.

76% of reg Dems are enthused to vote, but FOR WHOM?

Item 25. Are you much more likely to support/oppose (your rep who voted for HC)

27/35 support/oppose among all reg voters.

Some of those Dems are enthused to vote out HC voters, it appears.

Of course, keeping in mind that this is just one sample, and one that can't be taken too seriously at that.



I still don't get all the fuss. Strategically this whole thing is unfolding exdactly how I said it would. I've been saying for months on this site the best thing would be for the Dems to pass this on a partisan vote. My only fear is that some republicans would be stupid enough to vote for it, which they did not....and they will be rewarded by winning back the House this November.

Now there is early talk Dems will be pushing for a national sales tax, which of course bugs me, but really hurts the lower class. Obama and his Dems will impose a national sales tax because they know there's simply no way to pay for this stuff. When you combined the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, a weak job market and other new taxes in HCR along with a upcoming natioanl sales tax you will simply stall the economy into a double dip recession. Big O will drop to the 30's in approval and a republican will win in 2012 and take back the Senate. Then HCR will be repealed or defunded.....well the parts that won't already have been tossed out by the scotus, which some parts will be obviously.

Dems didn't learn there lesson in NJ or VA, nor did they learn a lesson from MA. When new taxes starting hitting people and there premiums start going up, things will get pretty ugly for our blue freinds.

Oh ya lets not forget rising gas prices....we are up about a dollar since this time last year here and it keeps eeking upward. Oh ya and lets not forget America will probably have its credit rating downgraded before the end of 2011...making all the spending Dems like to do even more expensive.

A perfect storm is brewing and its targeting the Dems. If the GOp does not screw it up, they will benefit big time...all they need to do is keep saying NO to all the crap.

Heheheh, just as I am writing this my local news just reported on ANOTHER hidden gimmick in HCR....apparantly all Americans will be auto enrolled in a long term care program which we all ahve to pay on each month....estimate as some may pay upwards of $250 a month, hwile the average americans will see a new tax on his paycheck of about $150. I love it......punitive taxation is going to destory the Democratic party.


Field Marshal:


I agree, the facts are key. And you seem to revel in the fact that people wont see the true cost until after the re-election. Timed perfectly for Obama.

There may be no real spending but there will be new taxes and much HIGHER premiums. Those will take effect next year and most people will see large, double-digit increases just like in Mass when Romney Care was made.



Every day since the bill was signed, companies announce another billion dollars in taxes they are getting hit with. A local medical device manufacturer here in Northern Indiana has announced they will be hit with $160 million per year in new healthcare taxes and $50 million in healthcare insurance increased costs. They might have to lay off 800 employees because the Chinese are trying to enter the artificial joint market and there is no profit margin to spare. This bill might put them under.

My company will have to raise our health insurance premiums by 25% beginning next January. That information is out there right now. The benefits are theoretical and all in the future. These costs are hitting right now.

This along with the taxes everyday people start paying immediately on bandaids, tampons, canes, walkers, wheelchairs, breast pumps, and thousands of other items and the negative parts of this bill are hitting the general public much sooner than Democrats gambled.

Then everyday there is a new report like the NYT article by the former head of the CBO that said that the gimmicks in the HCR bill hide $675 billion in deficits. All of this in a month when unemployment went up in 27 states.




Anohter good point. Company after company right now is coming out saying they are going to be hit with huge amounts of tax increases. Verizon, John deer, etc, etc...all announcing huge hits to there bottom lines along with having to raise premium rates on there employees by pretty big numbers.

People will start feeling the pain shortly. And this thing will have nothing but Dem fingerprints all over it. Guess what these tax increases mean for companies? that's right, LAY OFFS!!!

This is basically death for the Dems by slow acting poison. As people start losing jobs, seeing there premiums go up and getting absolutely no real benefit, watch out!

Death by poison!



Stillow, et.al.:

I'll speak softly in case you haven't woken up from your dream.

This year is shaping up to be more 1982 than 1994 because the US is transitioning from a conservative era to a more progressive/liberal era and that will stoke the kind of apocalyptic talk and crazy right wing backlash that you speak of and that we saw in the news last week.

Consider that Reagan was facing a similar political scenario in 1982, when his approval ratings were lower than Obama's are now. There was talk then of Reagan not even being renominated. The left was as apoplectic as you are with its talk of Reagan's getting us into a nuclear war and gutting the economy with his tax cuts (and that was by admission of his own budget director). The Democrats won seats in the fall of 1982, but in the end the conservative policies seemed to steady the country and we embarked on the conservative experiment that righted many of the liberal excesses of the 1960s and 70s.

This fall, the Democrats will lose seats, but I don't think they'll lose their majorities in either house of Congress. Obama is slowly letting the country know that we do need our problems fixed and if the Republicans only say no, then they will be part of the problem, not the solution. And Obama will be reelected in 2012 because he will get more legislation passed and, like Reagan, will run against the party that almost destroyed the American economy.

I understand the anger and motivation of the Tea Party, and they will find some successes this fall. But they will also scare the wits out of moderates and independents who only want jobs and a decent life and do not share in their threats to "take our country back" (from whom?). The health care bill will not be repealed and, worse for the Republicans, if they persist in painting all progressive legislation as the doom of the country, they will marginalize themselves and have a convention that will make the disaster of Houston in 1992 look like a Kumbaya love-in.

And about New Jersey, clearly you don't live anywhere near here, but I can tell you that Christie's education cuts are massive and unpopular. He has cut the legs from under one of the best state public school systems in the country and will force much larger classes, cutbacks in popular sports and arts programs, and the net effect will be perhaps a $300 decrease in the average property tax bill.

This country is moving to the left my friend and its going to leave some of the old conservative constituencies behind as we modernize and move forward. If the Republicans can come up with some decent ideas, and they do have some I'll admit, they can be part of it. But simply opposing will not mean anything but short term gains and long-term losses.

I look forward to your responses




Its impossible to transition toa liberal/progressive country......because we don't have the money to do that. We are already 14 trillion in debt...and O's spending projectiosn will ahve us over 20 trillion in less than a decade. those are not sustainable numbers and you can't operate a country, neither liberal or conservative oweing that much money. the country's financial system would simply collapse.

So come down fro mthe clouds for a moment...wheather you like it nor not, sheeer economics will put us back into a more fiscally conservative era. Did you miss NJ, Va and MA? The people are saying NO to big spending and big g'ment, not the other way around.

As people end up having to pay more and more out of pocket to get less and less in services, then you will see a major backlash against liberals in elections.

To put it simply, there is not enough money out there to pay for liberalism....we eitehr financiallycollapse as a nation or we swing abck the toher way....and all recent electiosn sayign we are swinging back the toehr way...to a more fiscally conservative way of thinking.




It's interesting to me that you see the deficit as a purely liberal product, as if conservative politicians haven't had anything to do with it. It's always seemed to me that neither party/movement is willing to do what is necessary to balance the budget. I thought the Bush era showed that conservatives couldn't do it. Clinton and the Republican congress looked like they almost had it, but obviously it didn't happen. Let me know if you see that differently.

As for the elections, I'm surprised you put so much stock in state elections. National elections as recently as 2008 seem to suggest that the country is more prepared for liberalism than you claim. I think there's a small sample size problem with reading too much into state elections that are so influenced by non-national issues and the quality of the candidates themselves.

Given that Obama's numbers seem to be leveling off at a 50/50 split (as well as the theoretical house ballots), it's hard for me to see a powerful backlash against the liberalism that the electorate just put in office 18 months ago.


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