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US: National Survey (PPP 12/4-7)


Public Policy Polling (D)
12/4-7/09; 1,253 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 47% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 83 / 14 (chart)
Reps: 11 / 84 (chart)
Inds: 46 / 47 (chart)

Do you support or oppose President Obama's approach to Afghanistan?
47% Support, 37% Oppose

Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
39% Support, 52% Oppose (chart)

Are you opposed because it gets government too involved in health care or because it would not involve government enough?
90% Too much government involvement
6% Not enough government involvement

Who would you rather have as President right now: George W. Bush or Barack Obama?
50% Obama, 44% Bush

Do you support the impeachment of President Obama for his actions in office so far?
20% Yes, 67% No

Party ID
39% Democrat, 34% Republican, 27% Independent/Other (chart)

 

Comments
change:

If you believe that there are more Republicans in the country then Independents, I have some ocean front property in Idaho to sell you. my little sister could do better then that!

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Farleftandproud:

This poll is full of crap. You are right. the GOP makes up only 22 percent of of our population. Dems still outnumber them by 10 percentage points.

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stevie314159:

The "who did you vote for in 2008?" question had Obama +2 over McCain.

That's not quite how it went if I recall.

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Farleftandproud:

All this GOP Speculation that their strategy is actually working will soon come to an end. When a health care bill is signed and when by next Spring our unemployment rate is coming down. What many people don't have is faith. I trust Obama that things will turn around, and it will be gradual, but by next 2010 election I think the GOP will be moving on to new issues of fear like immigration. They have wanted Obama to fail since day 1, and when I think of the benefit of the doubts the Dems gave to Bush in the beginning, the GOP has treated Obama like crap right from day 1.

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A Rasmussen poll from last week puts the percentages at 36% Dem, 33% Rep, 31% Ind. So, based on Rasmussen, this poll might be a little heavy on the Dem side.

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A Rasmussen poll from last week puts the percentages at 36% Dem, 33% Rep, 31% Ind. So, based on Rasmussen, this poll might be a little heavy on the Dem side.

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Field Marshal:

And if the economy doesn't turn around, Obama can just keep blaming Bush and Reps, right? Or say the economy is racist.

I surely hope so. We've never had a president who was this immature and continuously blamed others for the problems facing this nation. Obama's inauguration speech was a pathetic display. I mean, not even Lincoln who inherited REAL problems, never mentioned his predecessor. But Lincoln had class, Obama lacks it.

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Pluoticus:

Wow! 90-6! I guess that "not liberal enough" horse pucky argument it toast.

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Stillow:

Ya 90 is a HUGE number......the Dems are hell bent on organizing a mass suicide for themselves.

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LordMike:

Whatever... PPP polls have similar selection biases to the rasmussen polls... automated calls... only the really motivated answer the poll... i.e. republicans.

Ipsos has the "not liberal enough" at 25%. Anyone who has been through the nightmare of the American health care system knows that it needs a heck of a lot more reform than the extremely mild measures being proposed in congress...

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Field Marshal:

LordMike,

The automated response polls were shown to be the most accurate for the 2008 election.

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LordMike:

Yes, and back then, Democrats were way more motivated to answer the phone and answer the poll...

It acts as a nice likely voter screen, however, there is no election for another 10 months, so there will be some selection bias until the campaigns start up next year.

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RussTC3:

Yeaaah, I'll pass, thank you.

Field Marshal
According to PPP President Obama won the 2008 election by two points. Reality: He won by seven.

I wonder if they'll skew their upcoming polling to compensate for their poor sampling. If we see a correct picture of the 2008 electorate in their January poll but no change/little change in approval for the President, we'll know they did.

But who cares about credibility right?

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CUWriter:

Tom Jensen is diametrically opposite of Scott Rasmussen in his politics. So there's no slant there. As for "only the motivated answer the calls" how does IVR put off more people than live callers? You're just as likely to hang up when you hear a live telemarketer as when you hear a recording if you're not open to the first few seconds of the message. You're just way off here LordMike. And furthermore, guess who are the only folks who vote in a midterm election? The motivated.

I don't even need to start with farleftandproud; dude has zero concept of what is happening in the world. Now, obviously things can improve economically and politically for the Dems between now and November. But they can also get worse or largely be unchanged. And keep in mind that Clinton lost 54 seats to the GOP when the recession of the early 90s was already over! So there are no givens at all, but the trends seem pretty consistent right now. Obama is now hovering around 50% approval, but now just below that mark (exception for Bloomberg I guess) as opposed to last month when he was just above it overall.

These numbers are also very, very soft. The approve/disapprove on the economy and health care, the two biggest issues right now, is far lower than overall approve/disapprove. Obama's favorable image is what is keeping him somewhat afloat now. That worked for awhile for Bush as well; his favorable/unfavorable was always higher than approve/disapprove because people liked the kind of guy he is. Same goes for Obama. But eventually that gap shrinks and it's always bad news for approve/disapprove.

2010 elections are now just less than a lifetime in politics away, but I really, really doubt they'll be better than "average" for a midterm, meaning the Dems can kiss their 60 seat majority in the Senate and a big chunk of their advantage in the House goodbye.

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CUWriter:

RussTC3: Don't you get it? The electorate is changing right now. That's the thrust of most of these polls. The youth are now disengaged (as usual) and minorities aren't as inspired to answer the phones, loudly support potential policies and get out and vote.

Just as the employment figures don't take into account folks who have stopped looking for work, polls cannot account for those who have disengaged entirely from politics. But would you say that unemployment figures from ADP and BLS can't give us a decent snapshot of what is happening in the labor market? Of course it does. Same goes for these polls.

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Field Marshal:

Lordmike,

Yeah, they were more motivated. And according to recent polls, they are no longer more motivated and the reps are which stands to reason the reps will do much better in 2010. So, doesn't that translate to it being more accurate predictor of election results? Maybe not overall populous opinion but definitely election results.

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RussTC3:

CUWriter
The poll asked who you voted for in 2008, not "looking back on 2008, who would you vote for".

2008 election polling showed that whether you asked registered or likely voters or even all adults, the difference between the polls was fairly small.

There is only one correct response to that question:
Obama: 53
McCain: 46

Period.

PPP is polling registered voters, not likely voters and for them to be so off the mark on such a basic question (that sets the tone for the rest of the survey's responses) is unacceptable. They undersampled Obama's verifiable 2008 support by SIX POINTS (47 vs. 53). That's HUGE.

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CUWriter:

Cool story hansel. Except that you clearly have no understanding of how polling works. I can't believe that a guy who hasn't taken a statistics class since freaking high school gets this and you don't.

We've already established the fact that when a share of the electorate is depressed they tend not to be politically engaged, not to vote and also NOT TO ANSWER POLLS. It doesn't matter if they are RVs or LVs. You're going to get numbers about previous elections twisted when a share of the electorate is depressed and that's what we have now. You have McCain voters more likely to answer the phone about polls because they're pissed. When you weed out for LVs with an actual question, you're going to see an even bigger effect.

The electorate is different than it was in 2008. Period. The people who are likely, somewhat likely or even somewhat unlikely to vote (basically all RVs) are different from RVs just one year ago. That's why you are getting a different result. And honestly, you'd get a different result from the '08 elections even if you polled all adults. If you can't understand that, just look at the Pollster composites for absolutely everything; health care reform, Obama approve/disapprove overall and on the issues and even favorability.

Plenty of time for it to change, but this poll is squarely on target with others. So if you're a lefty and you're looking for straws to grasp at for now you can simply say the midterms are a long ways away (very true) or you can take your absurd argument that all these polls are precise but not accurate.

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RussTC3:

Nah, sorry. If this was a likely voter pool I'd agree with you, but they sampled registered voters.

However, I believe we've discovered why Rasmussen is so low. I bet he's happy he doesn't have to show complete cross tabs. That provides him nice to cover to continue his push-polling.

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Field Marshal:

Russ,

Shouldn't matter if its likely or registered. Likely just means they voted in the last two elections. That could just mean they were Dems upset with Reps in office. Now that Dems are in office, they may not be as enthused any longer. If they are not motivated to vote and thus not motivated to answer the automated polling, the automated polling is probably pretty accurate.

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