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US: National Survey (Quinnipiac 4/14-19)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
4/14-19/10; 1,930 registered voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

National

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 10 (chart)
Reps: 11 / 83 (chart)
Inds: 38 / 50 (chart)
Economy: 40 / 55 (chart)
Health care: 40 / 55 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
20% Approve, 71% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
31% Satisfied, 69% Dissatisfied (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 33 / 47
Democratic Party: 32 / 52
Tea party movement: 32 / 31

Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
39% Approve, 53% Disapprove (chart)

 

Comments
GARY WAGNER:

Now, Quinnipiac, the pollster that liberals can't help but love will be villified for publishing a poll that doesn't paint the rosy picture they want to see.

It's been a month. Where is that big bounce that was supposed to come along with passing the healthcare destruction bill? The last Quinnipiac poll (2 days after passage) had healthcare at 40% approve, 49% disapprove. Looks like the approval gap has moved from 9% to 14%. That's a 50% increase.

I see here that Republicans now hold the edge on favorable/unfavorable over democrats. A 52% unfavorable for democrats along with a 71% unfavorable for congress is just one more indicator of what is building for November.

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rdw4potus:

WOW. Repubs more favorable than dems? 14 point healthcare spread? Obama under 45%? If this isn't an outlier, the dems are so royally screwed...

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Field Marshal:

Tea Party is AS POPULAR as the Democratic party and the GOP is a point ahead! In addition, the Tea Party is NET FAVORABLE!

That just blows up in the face of the race-baiting libs, huh?!

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Farleftandproud:

This poll has some serious flaws. Since moderates and progressives have fairly high favorables for Obama, and I also looked at approval by religion. I know they are probably correct about white evangelicals with low approval for Obama, but mainline protestants according to this poll were almost as low. As one of those myself, and their teachings of social justice, I know very few that favor GOP policies. I can speak for United Church and Evangelical Lutheran of America. As for white catholics, I also was a bit surprised it was only 35 percent.

I think they overpolled conservatives. I was really surprised at the results.

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CUWriter:

Not surprising that the Dems are in "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" mode with immigration, financial regulation, etc. The numbers only moved a little after HCR, and what little they've moved has been against them. It's not going to change, even as the economy starts its uneven recovery, so why not just pass whatever the heck they can pass?

And I'm being serious. It's the right strategy. They're screwed come November no matter what they do so they may as well pass everything they can.

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CUWriter:

Yes, yes, every poll has serious flaws if it doesn't show everyone being on board with Obama's agenda. Come on now, do you think everyone has it wrong and R2K is the only one close to reality, or is it more likely that the consensus is fairly accurate?

Look, I agreed with a lot of Bush's agenda (not all of it mind you, especially not the profligate spending and expansion of gov't power to allegedly serve the social conservative agenda) but I was under no illusions that the majority of voters agreed with me come fall 2006. That's just how it goes. You can trust that you're right and the populace is wrong and that's totally fair. In fact, if you have those kinds of convictions, good for you. Better than the wishy washy masses that blame everyone for their own problems or don't understand how even the hugely powerful levers in DC and Wall Street can't create economic catastrophes, just exacerbate them and hamper natural economic recoveries.

But don't shoot the messengers when they deliver a message you don't like. The polls are what they are and they show a voter population that personally likes Obama but doesn't like his domestic policy (they like much of his foreign policy actually) and don't like any politicians right now but are willing to vote for the GOP because they're not the ones in power. That's just reality and you have to acknowledge it.

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Farleftandproud:

Than again if this poll is correct and White catholics and some of the more liberal protestant groups have that low of an opinion of Obama around the country, than perhaps some of my theories of their being a racial bias are correct.

I don't know what more Obama can do other than do his job and realize our country was in a mess before he became president. Perhaps he is missing something in his PR with the white working class and he needs a new strategy. Obviously, if this poll is correct he doesn't just have a problem with White evangelicals which have had low favorability of Democrats in general. As for the rest of the white community, Obama has to find some way to win back Independents. The Brady foundation gave obama an F for doing absolutely nothing in new gun laws. Maybe Obama needs to make a statement on this issue and communicate it better. As for abortion, nothing has really changed that much since Bush was president other than federally funding family planning organizations in nations that do not have safe medical conditions, and where many pregancies are unsafe.

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Farleftandproud:

I still believe Gallup more than anyone on this kind of poll. Maybe not generic ballot, but I notice some pollsters, ask more difficult questions than do you approve or dissaprove. I believe Rasmussen more than this on Obama because they only include people who are faithful voters. I think there are some questions that mislead people with PPP and QUinipiac on Obama and the issues.

Based on experience, I can say that more liberal protestants like United Church of Christ, Evangelical Lutheran of America and Dutch Reformed are at ods in theology and politics with the more conservative Christians like Southern Baptists, Weslyan and Pentecostal. For instance many mainline churches are open and affirming which means they encourage openly gay people and the conservative churches, more or less would try to change or transform them and believe that being gay is curable and is something to be ashamed of. Issues like these carry a lot of political weight. Catholics are usually split down the middle; there are some very culturally conservative ones and some that are more progressive. Lets face it, Michael Moore and Pat Buchanan are both Catholic and attend church regularly, but compare their philosophies.

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CUWriter:

I'm a white Catholic who is very much against Obama and I assure you my friend I'm no racist. Thanks for assuming you know anything about my faith, it's influence on my politics and how racist I am.

What Obama could do to get in touch with the "white working class" as you put it, is reduce the size of government and stop spending. Regular folks aren't stupid, they know that even though they're not paying more in taxes now they will be doing so in the very near future to pay for increasing entitlements and discretionary spending that is going nowhere but up, or else face financial ruin by massive inflation or sovereign debt default. Since the last two will never happen (and thank God for that) only the first scenario makes sense.

And for the record pal, Nancy Pelosi is also a white Catholic, and while I'd just be silent out of respect for the office of the president if I met Obama, I'd probably have to be held back from slapping Pelosi's face and calling her exactly what she is: A heretic and a total insult to Catholicism.

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Farleftandproud:

Well he has fairly high approval among jews. There goes the theory that he has a lousy Israel policy.

If this poll were accurate Democrats would not be able to outspend Republicans most quarters since it is the white folks that have the money to contribute to Democratic campaigns. I wish QUinippiac would make it clearer as to how they ask people these questions and be more like Gallup and Rasmussen and have an up or down answer.

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Rockym92:

Farleft, please stop with the racist garbage.

Why are you so amazed that Obama has low approvals? The main reason can only be racism? How about the fact that unemployment is still at 9.7%? Think thats a little more likely than racism? Damn straight it is. Clinton was right around this level or even lower and the economy wasnt even close to as bad as it is now. Were you and other libs blaming racism then?

I'm actually shocked that his approval is still this high. It could easily be 5-7 points lower considering the mess we're still in. Alot of people still want to believe in Obama and give him a shot, but more will lose faith as the economy takes a very very slow road to recovery. Only when unemployment gets below 8% or so will his approval get a noticable bump, not when his skin color gets lighter.

Can we please stop bringing up racism in damn near every poll we see? Pretty please?

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Field Marshal:

It's a racist poll, that's for sure.

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Ryan:

"Than again if this poll is correct and White catholics and some of the more liberal protestant groups have that low of an opinion of Obama around the country, than perhaps some of my theories of their being a racial bias are correct."

Really? If they have a low approval rating of Obama then they are racist? By the same logic, that means if black catholics approve of Obama it is due to a racial bias as well. Just get over your race claims. A majority of white people voted for him, and now many of them think they made a mistake. That does not make them racist.

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Farleftandproud:

The bottom line is I don't believe that people are as racially biased as this poll shows, but according to this poll, I saw no polling data for hispanics or asians. You can all look at the data above, but when they talked about religious affiliation someone clearly messed up.

If this poll were correct, the major supporters of Obama would be African American, Hispanic, Jewish, and the rest of his major supporters are atheist or agnostic. I am not going to believe for a second that is true.

Most people have a religious preference even if they don't practice their faith. Most people will say what it is.

I would like to see Obama react to this poll and see what he would say because I can only speculate.

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Farleftandproud:

Okay, I'll give racism a rest,unless I am talking about Limbaugh or Beck. I still believe that Obama's last name and theory he is a foreign entity would not have been the case if he were white and had a name like Mike Jones. Clearly John Kerry could have faced the same problems with his approval as Obama is now had he won. Too many Americans are not optimistic about politicians in general, and when they see change happening too fast they get scared.

Obama's approval will likely go down, and the GOP will gain seats, but once they are back in power, the public will see that they haven't changed one bit since Bush was president, and in fact have gotten worse.

Believe it or not, I will give W. tons of credit for being openminded. He didn't promote these harsh immigration policies, and encouraged an amnesty, similar to what Bush is doing now, and he had one of the most diverse cabinets of any president prior to Obama.

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CUWriter:

Beck is just a lunatic and Limbaugh is an entertainer first and foremost. However, I assure you that the "far right," of which I am a member, doesn't give a damn about Obama's skin color or familial history. Sure, there are loonies that clamor "where's da birf certificate?!?!" but there are also nutjobs on the left that claim that 9/11 was an inside job explicitly perpetrated by Bush so he could kill Arabs. So please, enough of that nonsense.

We on the right simply view big government as a real danger to the freedom and prosperity of the people. Yes, government needs to exist because human beings are imperfect. So we need police, a military, a justice system to prevent the powerful from enslaving the powerless and rules to keep the marketplace relatively fair (not in terms of results, but in terms of access) etc. But excessive regulation, taxation, debt and power concentrated in the hands of people who are clearly not responsive to the will of the people is horrendous.

Quite frankly, I think it's crazy that everything is debated at the federal level. That's antithetical to what our Founding Fathers imagined. Yes, it's an interconnected world and we're a superpower, but we debate EVERYTHING at the Federal level now. Abortion, gay marriage, gun laws, public health laws, the environment, etc. It's ridiculous. If one state wants to allow abortion and gay marriage, restrict guns within the scope of the Second Amendment and provide health care for everyone, fine! Let them do it! And if another wants to do the opposite, good! Then let businesses and citizens decide where they want to live/work/set up shop based on those conditions.

I have no desire to see us return to the Articles of Confederation, but we are never going to be a homogenized society (and that's a good thing) so why pretend like we will be? Why not return to real federalism and give people real choices?

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Rockym92:

Thank you farleft.

I think that if Hilary was president right now, her approval would be a good 5% lower than Obamas. I'm sure she wouldnt have 95% approval among african americans and i really doubt that whites would have a higher approval of her, (maybe women slightly?). My guess is whites would actually be lower on average if Hilary was pres.

Just think about when the economy turns around and unemployment is noticablely lower, you get to rub it in all the conservatives faces that Obama is popular and cruising to re-election. If the economy is turned around by then, i guarantee you that will be the case. That being said....

Daniels/Paul 2012!!!

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kingsbridge77:

Farleftandproud said, "I still believe Gallup more than anyone on this kind of poll."

See, Gallup is an awesome pollster as long as it has Obama higher than other pollsters. But if Gallup dare show Obama in a decline, liberals will pounce. I remember spokesman Gibbs criticizing Gallup one time, when Gallup had Obama at 47% for the first time. Gibbs compared Gallup to the work of a "six year old." See link: http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/1209/w_h_mocks_gallup_7386fd84-4620-4e10-b7cd-3550967127b1.html

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Stillow:

I see farleft yet again couldn't resist his accusations of racist....unbeleivable. Some of you libs are so totally dense its amazing you can get dressed inthe morning.

Obama is in trouble becaus eof his liberal policies. I don't ccare how you cut the pie, there are simply far far more people in the country who lean right than are liberal. When you govern this far to the left, its inevitible your approval will begin to drop.

Libs have no clue what the real world is. They totally convinced themsleves that passing HCR would be their salvation....everyone would come together and singing songs....the world would unite behind them, they owuld put a dagger in the GOP's heart....and the Dems woudl be sitting on 70 percent approval and could do whatever they want.

Ooooops, there's real life again getting in the way. Must be racism.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Tsk tsk. This poll is a hate crime.

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Farleftandproud:

Can someone defend me from the left? Glen Beck did say once that Obama should pick a "gay black, handicapped woman" right on fox. Now I don't agree with Hannity, but I give him credit for not being racist. Of course he can make strong opinions but he at least has some facts to base his agenda on.

If I have offended anyone, I apologize. Can someone find some polling on Bill Clinton's approval based on race and ethnicity in 1994? I would be curious to know how it compared to Obama.

I seriously hope this poll's data is wrong because there had to have been a reason Obama won the white vote in 2008 and there clearly has to be a reason now why he his numbers are declining faster among whites than other groups.

Only Obama himself can address this problem and time will tell if my theories on race in America are correct. I seriously hope I am wrong.

Lets say Colin Powell had challenged George W. Bush in the GOP primary in 2000, who would have won? Be honest.

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Farleftandproud:

Sure HCR in it's final legislative form wasn't that popular but about 10 percent of those who don't like the new health care reform are those who were upset the public option wasn't in the bill. I wasn't pleased with that either. When the public option was on the table, the American people overwhelmingly supported it but when the blue dogs tried to water it down, that was when support for HCR went out the window.

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GARY WAGNER:

Oh my God! Again with the racist crap.

Did you know, Farleft, that Obama is the most pro-abortion president in history? Did you happen to know that Catholics - yes even WHITE catholics do not support a president who tried to pass a bill in the Illinois senate making it illegal for a doctor to provide treatment to a baby born alive in a botched abortion attempt? What makes you think Catholics - or any Christians would support Obama? Because you do? If you look at all of the polls that break it down, you will see that among people who attend church regularly, Obama has an approval in the low 30's.

But of course, this is just all racism again.

Then you throw the Jews in there for good measure. Of course they support him - he's a democrat. Take a look at the voting record of Jewish people over the past 60 years to see why that matters.

Maybe it would surprise you that Obama has a 7% approval rating in Israel. How long will he hold the American jewish voters with Israelis disliking him that much?

Saying "gay black handicapped woman" makes someone a racist? How about Harry Reid's comment that it was a good thing that Obama was a clear-speaking light-skinned african american? How about Bill Clinton saying that 10 years earlier, Obama would have been serving him coffee in the oval office? How about Biden saying that it was good that Obama seemed to be a "clean man".

Talking about blacks and whites doesn't make anyone racist. And despising a black person doesn't make a white person a racist - unless they despise them because they are black.

And now you blame people not supporting the healthcare destruction bill because of blue dogs? This is just so ridiculous it is getting funny. I'd be laughing if it wasn't for the racist stuff. That is riling me up more every time I hear it.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"If one state wants to allow abortion and gay marriage, restrict guns within the scope of the Second Amendment and provide health care for everyone, fine! Let them do it! And if another wants to do the opposite, good!"

CUWriter,

The problem with this argument is that it means that Americans will have different rights and opportunities based on their state of residence.

The same argument was made by people opposed to civil rights - some hid their racism behind this kind of states rights argument, and some truly believed it.

But the same argument was made: "If some states want to allow blacks and whites to attend the same schools and be allowed to mingle in the same places of business, fine!" But they believed that their state should be able to uphold the property rights of business owners to choose their customers, and the rights of local school districts to organize how they saw fit.

States rights has been used to oppose reforms throughout American history. In my opinion, federalism the way you conceive it died when the south lost the civil war. Ever since then, it's kind of been understood that the states are soveriegn only in matters the federal government doesn't care about.

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Ryan:

"Glen Beck did say once that Obama should pick a "gay black, handicapped woman" right on fox."

I'd suggest looking up the words "facetious" and "sarcastic" when you get a chance.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Maybe it would surprise you that Obama has a 7% approval rating in Israel."

It's amazing to me that conservatives care about public opinion in Israel but nowhere else. Did you care when Bush's popularity was in the toilet throughout western Europe or the Muslim world? I consider Germany & France better and more important allies than Israel. Isreal tends to be erratic. Europe is far more aligned with our goals & values, despite the disagreements that do exist.

People have forgotten that Reagan and Menachem Begin did not get along either. They disagreed far worse than Obama and Netanyahu. Israel was not happy at all when Reagan pulled out of Lebanon.

Although I do like Israel for one reason - they have single payer health care.

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Stillow:

aaron - Israel is our strongest ally inthe middle east....some would argue our only ally there.

What is France gonna do? They poke us in the eye every chance they get. What good is an ally in hard times if all they know how to do is say "We Surrendur". yes, I am being partyly comical here....but to say France as a more important ally than Israel is irresponsible and naive.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Can someone find some polling on Bill Clinton's approval based on race and ethnicity in 1994?"

You have to do a lot of digging to find stuff like public opinion polls from the time before sites like this existed to catalogue them. It's pretty easy to find polling from the early 2000's on, when blogging got popular. Finding older ones would probably require setting foot in a library.

We do have exit polling, though, and Bill Clinton got the same percentage of whites in 1996 that Obama did. Clinton did 5 points better among hispanics and 9 points worse than Obama among blacks, that more or less equalizes out. So the race gap was basically the same for Clinton.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

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Aaron_in_TX:

"but to say France as a more important ally than Israel is irresponsible and naive. "

I would say you're not thinking strategically. What can Israel do to help further our interests? They cannot contribute troops to any of our wars; we cannot intervene in any of their actions because we would forever alienate ourselves with the entire the muslim world. Most of our relationship involves holding them back.

France can contribute thousands of troops to our wars if they wanted, but we have failed to convince them of the value of doing so. They do have 3500 in Afghanistan but they refuse to increase them. Our trade, business relationships are much stronger and more important with Europe, not to mention the cultural and ethnic ties.

We need their help in case of a major action far more than we need Israel.

The Israel-U.S. relationship benefits them, but there is very little benefit to us. The most likely end result of that relationship will be a war.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The Israeli alliance is a cold war relic. It was more important when they were helping hold the Soviets from increasing their presence in the middle east while we were mired in Vietnam.

Since the demise of the USSR, they have mostly been a problem.

The only benefit I can imagine that we get from them is whatever intelligence assets they share. They also buy weapons from us, but the net advantage is probably negated by the other forms of aid they get from us. I doubt that cooperation has ended over a disagreement about 1200 stupid houses.

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YeswecanObama:

Gary Wagner's statement is clearly wrong about Obama being the most Pro-abortion president ever. They said that about Bill Clinton as well and will say it about any Democrat, because that is what extreme pro lifers are programmed to think. That legislation in IL you were talking about, was done in cases where a woman could have serious health complications. Again, the righties twisted the facts to portray Obama as a baby killer. Obviously even with Sarah Palin on the ticket, the typical "baby Killer" stereotypes that Democrats are given by religious freaks didn't work. I have given up discussing politics period with pro-life extremists. I'll lose every time, so it is pointless to engage in it.

About half of our country supports a woman's right to choose, and even among pro-life people, they think that Roe Vs Wade is the law of the land, but abortion should happen under certain circumstances.

Ryan, I took Glen Beck at his word. There was nothing funny about his statement about picking a black, gay, handicapped woman. If he thinks that is a joke, he needs to learn a lesson. He also thought poisoning Nancy pelosi was funny too. If Glen Beck keeps opening his mouth, and says stuff like that, I think the FBI should question him as to just how far his sick humor could be acted on.

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kariq:

Q-polls are generally well regarded, but they do come up with some odd results on occasion. I recall that they had a poll showing Obama leading McCain by 13 points (or somewhere in that ballpark) in October 2008. No one else was showing results anywhere near that, so the key was obviously an outlier.

This poll looks to be fairly close to what other polls are showing, though a little GOP leaning. Obama's approval of 44% is a little lower than other pollsters are finding, even Rasmussen. The healthcare plan is a little less popular than most polls show. All in all, it may add up to a slight conservative/GOP lean versus other pollsters, but not enough to make the poll an outlier. It seems as likely to be right as anything put out by Gallup right now.

There's no doubt that if the election were held today, the Democrats would be in trouble. Their best hope is that the economy grows substantially in the next two quarters, otherwise it'll be the GOP's night.

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