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US: National Survey (Resurgent Republic 6/20-23)

Topics: National , poll

Resurgent Republic (R)
6/20-23/10; 1,000 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Resurgent Republic release)

National

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 88 / 9 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 87 (chart)
Inds: 44 / 51 (chart)

State of the Country
27% Right Direction, 64% Wrong Track (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 49 / 45 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 32 / 50
Harry Reid: 19 / 36
Reps in Congress: 36 / 49
Dems in Congress: 40 / 49

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Not terrible for a Republican pollster. Dems in Congress havea 4 point edge, but why didn't they include John "Tanning Salon" Boehner? They don't want us to think that the guy who they are almost certain will be house speaker is viewed by the public.

For Pelosi, that isn't terrible either, but I think if I were a independent or Conservative I would be able to connect better with Reid than Pelosi. Reid has had a bad rap, and has been misclassified as a liberal when he really is a Democratic populist. His record many issues is quite moderate.

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kevin626:

Seems odd that Obama would have the same approval rating as favorable rating. Usually the favorable is higher then the approval.

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melvin:

How can the Gop expect to gain control of Congress when their approval rating is worst then the Democrats? Back in 1994 the Gop approval rating was about 58%.What this poll is telling you is the American people dont trust the Republicans.

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iVote:

Like FLAP said, it's funny how a Republican pollster won't even poll their own Speaker-to-be John Boehner (or, as I like to call him, The Annoying Orange.)

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tjampel:

Melvin;

I think you're totally wrong.

Take any individual race, represented by a freshman or sophomore Dem in a district that voted for Bush in 2004 and either McCain or barely for Obama in 2008. Most of these Dems are at risk, not so much because they are personally unpopular but rather because voters are unhappy with the state of the country and hold the majority party at fault (rightly or wrongly), especially in light of the fact that their natural tendency is to side with Republicans (they are center or right center districts in the first place).

In these districts, running as a Dem against an opponent who generally hasn't been part of the Washington establishment is extremely tough.

Firstly you're seen as part of the problems of the country rather than the solution. The economy is still bad and you're party and, by extension you, are being blamed for failing to do anything about it. Additionally health care reform is still unpopular in many of these districts as well and, if you voted for it you're being blamed for that too, though, as I've stated in other posts, this blowback may die down as we approach November and some popular HCR items kick in. You're also being blamed for the oil disaster because the leader of your party is perceived as lacking in leadership on this issue and you get to share some of that dissatisfaction as well. All this translates right now to a 1 point or so generic advantage to Republicans among RVs and a 5 point one among LVs (I'm extrapolating here based on a small Ras house effect).

Secondly, your opponent isn't associated with these problems, generally. He/she has a clean slate (unless there are local issues/scandals to leverage), even if voters know next to nothing about him/her. They are not part of the Washington establishment and you are.

Charismatic Dems have some ability to make up these structural disadvantages, if they're running against a loon or unpersonable candidate, but they are still vulnerable to a good media campaign attacking their party (which they vote with more often than not) for doing all kinds of terrible things to the country. There's still a lot of anger and it's not hard to tap into it.

Thirdly your previous margin of victory may well have been razor thin and, even if it wasn't, it's at least partially, if not mostly attributable to the fact that 2008 was a change election and the wind was squarely at your back; you're running into a headwind now.

There is a built in advantage for Dems in that they can get something like 48.7% of the popular vote and be about even in the House. However, as LV replaces RV, if enthusiasm doesn't increase amongst Dems look for consistent 5-6 point Republican generic advantages. That translates to 40+ seats changing hands.

The salvation for Dems, if there's to be any is that anger can be tapped by both groups. Republicans, as seg points out, are the party that many angry voters would like to vote for but they haven't yet made the sale. They haven't given moderates a positive reason to vote for them. They've made their case that Dems haven't delivered on the econmomy; they've yet to show that they will do any better.

Dems need to do two things and do them quickly.

1. Nationalize the election, if that's at all possible at this point, by using fear...fear of most extreme Republicans becoming THE Republican Party proper, rather than merely it's base. I'm talking about the people who kicked out Bennett in Utah, Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, Bachman, et, al.

Whatever candidate is running show that this candidate will support an agenda dictated by the hard right and that this means major changes in popular entitlements. It's an old technique and, if you can find really good quotes (Angle has a few that I've heard) and use them with some good visuals, it can be effective.

2. Act before Republicans get their act together enough to develop a positive agenda of feel-good platitudes to take before the American people and tout as the solution to our problems. Don't let them score any points on offense. They really haven't done this yet, so it's not too late. But I'm sure it's in the works and may be launched any day.

For Dems to have a chance to hold the House Republicans need to be kept on the defensive. There's plenty of quotes and video to use because there are far more instances this cycle of very conservative candidates firing up their base through rhetoric which may not be so palatable to centrist voters. I expect that DCCC will be spending a lot of time watching video and listening to radio airchecks over the next month; they really don't have more time than that.

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Farleftandproud:

You have probably watched Forrest Gump with him saying "life is like a box of chocalates" with Boehner it would be having to meet with Obama and the Democrats for a bipartisan bill, Boehner will say "life is like drinking a garlic milkshake".

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