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US: National Survey (YouGov 8/28-31)

Topics: National , poll

YouGov / Economist
8/28-31/10; 1,000 adults
Mode: Internet
(YouGov release>)

National

Obama Job Approval
42% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 75 / 20 (chart)
Reps: 6 / 92 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 59 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
12% Approve, 65% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Adults: 43% Democrat, 37% Republican
Registered voters: 45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
28% Right Direction, 57% Wrong track (chart)

 

Comments
jack:

Very bad news for Obama.

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ath716:

Checkout the generic ballot chart using only YouGov's results. It shows essentially no change in support for either party from the end of April, 2009 to today. Just two straight lines, and a Dem advantage of about 4 points all along.

Does this strike anyone as odd?

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Field Marshal:

ath,

On page 14 of the release, it does show some tightening on their registered voter generic question congruent with other generic polling done recently showing a move towards the GOP.

But Obama's approval and the right direction/wrong direction results are not good for the president and democrats this November.

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Paleo:

1000 adults on the internet? A total disconnect between job approval and the generic? Next.

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RussTC3:

ath716
Who cares?

This poll has two things going against it:
1) It's a weekly tracker and
2) It's an internet poll

Ignored...regardless of its results.

Period. Just like Zogby and any other Internet poll.

____________________

ath716:

Field Marshall:

They only show tightening on their graph because of this week's result. They show no change in the aggregate over the past 17 months, just a lot of fluctuations that cancel each other out from month to month.

I think its fishy.

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CompCon:

@ath716: "Checkout the generic ballot chart using only YouGov's results. It shows essentially no change in support for either party from the end of April, 2009 to today. Just two straight lines, and a Dem advantage of about 4 points all along."

Maybe they just make up those generic ballot responses. Pollster.com is one of the only sites that will even put their poll results into their composite totals - and that's because they used to be owned by this polling company, before huffington post bought them.

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StatyPolly:

Internet polling indicates that most internet poll responders smoke crack.

I don't know how Sabato gets his "careful district by district analysis" since I doubt he has more than a handful or so of district polls, but current generic, which has proven exceedingly accurate over many elections, points to 80+ seat gains.

Gotta love Charlie Cook's contortions.

"Mr. Cook's current estimate is that they are in line for a 35- to 45-seat gain. "But frankly, I think we're being very conservative with that," he added. "The odds of it being higher than that range are a lot better than lower."

So the odds of it being higher than that range are A LOT better than lower, huh?

Careful, Charlie. A guy your age and physical shape? tsk tsk. You may cause permanent damage. Any half-way respected yogi would tell you to get in balance. Put the range where the odds of "it" being higher than that range are exactly equal to the odds of "it" being lower than that range. 75-85 will relieve the pressure from your spine and hips.

Also, Bieber called and he wants his hair back!

Poor Charlie.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I don't put much stock in the yougov polls. The internet self-selection is just a little disconcerting to me.

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Farleftandproud:

Isn't it interesting how when Rasmussen has Obama at 48 percent approval, and a liberal pollster like this has him at 42, all the righties, love to think this poll is accurate on Obama's approval. Yet, on the generic, they will say this poll is dead wrong? It figures.

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Farleftandproud:

I don't think the Democrats will lose the senate. If they lose the house, it isn't going to be a huge gain, because I have looked at the maps. It is possible that Murray or Feingold could lose by 1 or 2 points, and I think all but ARK, ND and Indiana will be close. I don't even think Castle will run away with it.

Scott Murphy in NY 20th may have the advantage of being from Gillibrand's district, but he has bent over backwards to reach out to voters, and focus on a variety of issues. In this district jobs have been created and the economy has grown over the past 2 years since Bush left office.

I predict that in the south, the losses will be the greatest, and would ad Ohio and PA, because those two states seem to move to extremes and lack loyalty. I predict that there will be some districts where loyalty counts more than party affiliation, which is why outside the South, enough Congressmen and women can win by small margin victories.

This scenario in my book could mean at best Democrats losing 30-35 seats and keeping the house, or losing 40-45 and losing it.

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tjampel:

Because the right wingers aren't interested in being dispassionate searchers for the truth.

They see a result they like and they utter triumphal shouts about it; see one they hate and they ignore it or trash the pollster

And...Dems here do the same damn thing time and time again.

There's really little difference; it's human partisan behavior at its worst. I'm guilty of it too.

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Fred:

question I have for you all: Do you think Obama's Iraq speech was good or not? Think it will help his approval, make it worse, or make no difference? Especially interested to hear the takes of dems on this one.

I personally thought the speech was poorly given, though, on paper, may have looked alright. He looked stiff and very much like he was too focused in on the teleprompter, and showed no emotion. I think it doesn't give him a bounce but doesn't hurt him either. We'll see.

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StatyPolly:

Fred, BOBO's job approval made a remarkable comeback in both daily trackers the past two weeks. Gallup had him above water for the first time in about 5 weeks or so.

I think that's because the people approve of the job he is doing much better when he is out on vacations.

I doubt that Iraq speech/(read) is gonna help much further though.

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Bart DePalma:

Why does Pollster.com include garbage internet polling? It is a bit irritating to have to uncheck this category to see the average of actual polling on the interactive chart.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Do you think Obama's Iraq speech was good or not? Think it will help his approval, make it worse, or make no difference?"

I thought it was one of his better speeches. I listened to it on the radio, though, so I'm not sure how he looked. My guess would be it has a minimal or no effect on approval since Iraq has moved waaay down the ladder as an issue.

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melvin:

The only way Obama can turn this economy around would be if he raises taxes,because if you go back in check your history the past 110 years every President that have cut taxes starting with Obama, the Bush's,Reagan,Carter,Ford,Kennedy, Nixon,Ike,Hoover,Coolidge,and Taft have seen the economy approve just a little or have seen the economy go into a Depression or very bad Recession....The Presidents that raised taxes starting with Clinton,LBJ,Truman,FDR,Wilson,and Teddy Roosevelt saw a Economic boom.....The best Economies the past 110 years was spent under Presidents that raised taxes significantly...The GOP always say cutting taxes create jobs,but if you go back the past 110 years in check to see if the Republicans were right about the tax issue,you will find how misleading the GOP has been about the tax issue for 110 years,because cutting taxes don't work period,it only makes matters worst...The proof is in the pudding.

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Field Marshal:

He looked like he was reading a teleprompter so the same as he normally looks.

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melvin:

The United States for the 1st time since the great Depression is giving out more then the Country is taking in.The American people wants the Govt to help them out in they're time in need,but at the sametime the American people don't want to see they're taxes increase period to help pay for it...How can this Country continue to pay for Domestic programs, disasters,and Wars without raising taxes? This Country is going to become bankrupted if this continues.

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nick283:

Right winger here. This poll sucks because it is an internet poll. I still think Ras, SurveyUSA and PPP (when it is doing likely voters) are the most accurate of the ones that do individual races.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"He looked like he was reading a teleprompter so the same as he normally looks."

You mean like Bush on the aircraft carrier in 2003?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/foreigndesk/detail?entry_id=16052

Every president since LBJ has used the damn teleprompter. It's a useful tool, you can look at your audience while giving your speech instead of constantly looking down.

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