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US: Obama 44, McCain 43 (AP-Gfk-10/16-20)

Topics: PHome

AP-Gfk
10/16-20/08; 800 LV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 44, McCain 43

 

Comments
boomshak:

test

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Jimbo77:

LANDSLIDE.

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PortlandRocks:

Note - Obama's RV lead in this poll is +10. How do you have a 9 point discrepency in RV vs LV? Outlier here. WOW. See Nate for further proof this poll is crap.

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maddiekat:

13% undecided / HA HA HA HA

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IndependentThinker:

Excuse me AP even Fox News has Obama +9
This one is a big outlier, I would not be surprised if boomCLUELESS jumps on this one but that's not gonna change the fact McTitanic is sinking faster than expected and will definitely hit the bottom of the sea on Nov 4th

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boomshak:

WOW, WHAT A DAY AT THE POLLS!

Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1

Gallup, Hotline and IBD/TIPP all SHRINK Obama lead by 2. GWU/Battleground lookin good at O+2 and now AP O+1 (I'm still shocked at this one as AP us uber-liberal).

Here's what IBD/TIPP had to say:

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

On State Polls, Mason-Dixon went from O+3 to M+2 in Florida since their last poll.

Perhaps the rumors are true that we are hearing from the field regarding internal polls - this sucker is closer than people think.

And now the dreaded thing has happened. 2 NATIONAL POLLS have been published showing it is TIED 2 weeks out. Obama did NOT want this.

Now it's gettin good.

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KipTin:

The only "crap" here are biased remarks by Portland Rocks. You don't even know what an outlier means, do you? Why do you continue to ignore sampling error?

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Centrist_Dem:

This poll is, to say the least, extremely questionable. Its numbers just make no sense. Neither candidate is higher than 44%? 13& undecided? The AP story basically says 'the fact that this poll is totally different from practically every other shows that we're right and everyone else is wrong.' Uh... sure.

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

Note - Obama's RV lead in this poll is +10. How do you have a 9 point discrepency in RV vs LV? Outlier here. WOW. See Nate for further proof this poll is crap.

No, actually, you are misreading that. His lead amongst ALL ADULTS polled was +10. His lead amongst RV's was +5 and amongst LV's +1. That is a normal spread.

This poll is HORRIBLE NEWS for Obama and is confirmed by GWU/Battlefield.

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[nemesis]:

Actually, 0 polls have been published showing the race tied. Nice try though.

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katocat:

How did I know this would be the Poll du' jour for Boom and Kip today?

LOL.

Outlier.

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mac7396:

AP = Fail! Drudge poll of the day.

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PortlandRocks:

KipTin you're stupid, like Palin. If 10 or more polls show a 6 - 10 point lead, and 2 or 3 show a 1 or 2 point lead, who's the outlier?

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak BUT BUT.. you told me yesterday Rasmussen was the grand daddy of all pollsters.. and Obama gained 2 in that poll. Is AP now the best? Do tell me daddy!

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LordMike:

McCain's waterboy, AP's Ron Fournier, conveniently left out the leaners in his topline... Add leaners and Obama is up 50-46... whoops!

If the race is so close, why is McCain pulling out of so many states and focusing on PA, where they say their internals are "only" 8 points down... only!

If it was closer, they wouldn't be pulling this stupid go for broke strategy of theirs...

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boomshak:

I am telling you people, Obama has peaked too early and all momentum will be to Mccain last two weeks.

McCain and Asarah are finally 9whew) on their game and saying the right things. Also, they are finally putting out some damned terrific ads, even here in NC.

Personally, I think Obama is over-exposed. I mean here in NC, its like 100 ads a day. It does get annoying. And his half hour show you guys are so excited about? Be careful. If he comes across as preening and arrogant, you may be screwed.

All KINDS of movement to McCain here in a number of well-respected polls.

P.S., FoxNews Poll is done by OpinionDynamics, not Rasmussen. OpinionDynamics always polls Dems high.

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PortlandRocks:

Obama +6 in Rasmussen today. You know, Booms BEST pollster. Yesterday with all of the +10's coming out we were told to "pay attention" to RAS. I am:) +6 baby!

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KipTin:

Oh, yeah... I forgot to add that the differential between RV and LV is the likely voter model, and who will likely vote is a real unknown this year.

Read this article... "How many polls does it take to screw up an election?"

http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=a3894827-4373-4f9b-a0e9-ebbc88036375

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak god you are the dumbest **** I have ever seen in my life. 1 poll and now Obama's in trouble yet your GODLY poll Rasmussen shows movement today to Obama. LOL FAIL!

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PortlandRocks:

6.8% RCP average less than 2 weeks from election day. Bush won with a good margin with a 1.5% RCP average. McCain has to make up 5% in less than 2 weeks to make this even close! HA!

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KipTin:

Do you guys remember the half hour TV of Perot talking head and his charts? Did not work too well. What can Obama do to hold the typical American's attention for 30 minutes?

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PortlandRocks:

From USA TODAY, be afraid trolls, very afraid!:)

Indications of who's voting early, based on election data and interviews:

• Florida: Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting by nearly 3-to-2 among 630,000 voters, according to the state Republican Party. But Democrats are closing that gap in early in-person voting; Monday's opening day produced nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats among 150,000 voters, says McDonald at George Mason University. President Bush carried the state with 52% in 2004.

• Ohio: In Cuyahoga County, which Democrat John Kerry won by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004, nearly 45,000 people who affiliate with Democrats in primary elections have cast ballots, compared to 10,000 who vote in GOP primaries. In Hamilton County, where Bush won 53% in 2004, three in five early voters are affiliated with Democrats.

• North Carolina: Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1 among 480,000 early voters. Bush won the state in 2004 with 56%.

• Georgia: More than 750,000 people have voted, nearly 25% of the 2004 total. Voters don't register by party, but 36% of early voters are black — up from 22% in 2004.

• Colorado: More than 150,000 people have voted absentee by mail. The party ratio — 81,000 Republicans, 76,000 Democrats — roughly matches overall registration.

• Iowa: Nearly 200,000 people have voted so far, including 100,000 Democrats and 54,000 Republicans. That's a greater ratio than 2004, when 194,000 Democrats and 141,000 Republicans voted early. Bush won Iowa in 2004 by 10,000 votes.

• Nevada: In Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early and absentee voting by a 2-to-1 margin — higher than their 60%-40% registration edge and Kerry's 52%-47% margin in 2004.

•New Mexico: More than 230,000 people have voted early or absentee, and Democrats have a 62%-to-38% advantage over Republicans. That's about the same as the Democratic registration edge in a state that Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004.

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paradski:

WOW WHAT A DAY FOR POLLS!

FOX 10/20-21/08 936 LV 40 49 +9D
Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby 10/19-21/08 1214 LV 42 52 +10D
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 10/19-21/08 1100 LV 41 51 +10D
Rasmussen 10/19-21/08 3000 LV 45 51 +6D
Gallup 10/19-21/08 2331 LV 44 52 +8D
ABC/Post 10/17-20/08 1324 LV 44 53 +9D
NBC/WSJ 10/17-20/08 1159 RV 42 52 +10D
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16-20/08 773 LV 42 50 +8D

VERY BAD NEWS FOR MCSAME

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boomshak:

TWO NATIONAL POLLS SHOWING WITH THE MOE:

The Governor of PA begging Obama to come back there as his state slips away. McCain gaining 5 points in FL in Mason-Dixon Poll.

You moonbats go ahead and cling to your silly 14 point leads. Get complacent. This is a horserace two weeks out and McCain is SURGING.

I love days like this cause I know it really make you moonbats sweat.

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PortlandRocks:

Now it's time for a game of NAME THAT OUTLIER!

FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/19 - 10/21 1208 LV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/19 - 10/21 2299 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/17 - 10/20 1324 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

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PortlandRocks:

AND AND AND a great poll out today in PA +11 Obama. McCain lost a point with all his campaigning ROFL This is fun.

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maddiekat:

Boomcrap

I thought you said yesterday that Rasmussen was the only poll to pay attention to. You are worse then Drudge or Limpig. Also as far as the TIPP Poll, it shows McCain leading among 18-24 year olds 53 to 43. If that isn't bad enough explan this...Dems O 87 M 5 / Reps O 7 M 84 / IND O 42 M 38 making this poll absolute junk.

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boomshak:

@KipTin:

Feel the over-exposure...

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PortlandRocks:

Boom how come you didn't mention the other Mason Dixon poll from VA showing your boy LOSING his lead in that poll? This was the LAST pollster to claim a McCain lead and now that's gone. Fact, if you don't win PA, it's OVER. And you won't:) Smart people know it's over.

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PortlandRocks:

FACTS - Kerry states, Colorado, NM, IA, and NH... OVER. VA? Way over. Add Missouri, LANDSLIDE. You guys are really ****ed:)

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tipping_point:

this poll is a load of crap for one, the poll is not a outlier i grant you that boomshak, but this poll has so major problems in terms of RV and LV it's theoretically impossibility to go from obama plus 10 among RV's to obama only plus 1 among LV's and if you listen to chuck todd boomshak which you should cuz he is a conservative like you he says pollster get into gray ares when they try to account for turnout using outdated models of voter turn. like in this gfk's poll LV's they are under weighting the youth and AA turnout in LV. when all exit polling thus fare in the battle grounds show early voter being majority black or obama by huge margins, be objective and get the facts.

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douglasfactors:

Outlier or not, it's OLD.

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jamesugw:

I hate to say it - but Boom may be right. New CBS poll puts a tie.

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boomshak:

PA Governor 'Nervous,' Sees McCain Surge
By Mark Impomeni

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/22/pa-governor-nervous-sees-mccain-surge/

Oct 22nd 2008 11:00AM

Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell has written two separate memos to the Obama campaign in recent days begging for Sen. Obama to come back and campaign in his state. In the memos, Rendell, a former Hillary Clinton supporter, admits to being "a little nervous" about Obama's chances in the Keystone state. Rendell says that the McCain camp is making a strong push for Pennsylvania, with Sen. McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin spending significant time and resources there recently.

Rendell wants Sen. Obama to return to his state and make three appearances to blunt McCain's momentum. He recommends a visit to what Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) labeled "racist" Western Pennsylvania, followed by an appearance in the capital of Harrisburg and a "large rally" in Philadelphia. But Obama's presence alone will not seal the deal, according to Rendell. So he wants the Obama campaign to bring Sen. Clinton and former president Clinton along with him, presumably to smooth things over with Pennsylvania's small townspeople, whom Obama once derided as "bitter" gun-loving religious zealots.

The Obama campaign has been nervous about Pennsylvania since Clinton trounced Obama by 10 points in the primary there. The selection of Joe Biden as his running mate was as much about Biden's Scranton roots as it was about his foreign policy experience. And the campaign has good reason to worry. Obama's own internal polling shows him with only a two-point lead in the state. It's probably closer than that given that internal polls are notoriously skewed toward the campaign conducing them. If Obama follows Rendell's advice and makes an emergency swing through Pennsylvania, it will be more telling of Sen. McCain's chances in the election than any public poll result.

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Pat:

@boomshak,

K E E P D R E A M I N G!

How many times do you want to be wrong and humiliated? Every week we go through this. And every week you tell us that by Sunday the race will be tied. You have to look at the average of the polls and not just a single poll. Your favorite polls (RAS, FOX, Zogby) show a widening of the gap.

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mmoldenh:

bookshak... why don't you take a look at the realclearpolitics average of all polls whose aggregate is the most accurate indicator? Are you paid to be this dumb or does it just come natural?

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IndependentThinker:

Surprisingly boomSTUPID dismisses in his polls list the brand new Fox News poll and the Zogby one he used to like but not today

You and McTitanic will be **** deep deep inside ... on Nov 4th, mark my words

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boomshak:

@tipping_point:

this poll is a load of crap for one, the poll is not a outlier i grant you that boomshak, but this poll has so major problems in terms of RV and LV it's theoretically impossibility to go from obama plus 10 among RV's to obama only plus 1 among LV's

You are misreading the poll. The +10 is amongst ALL ADULTS. The poll is only +5 amongst RV's and +1 amongst LV's. This is quite typical.

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mmoldenh:

@boomshak,

Why do you always post information irrelevant to the poll at hand? If we're this obsessed with polls, don't you think we'd have already hear about Gov. Rendell?

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boolean_radley:

Leave boomshack alone. He's chosen to go the way of Alabama, South Dakota and Kansas.

Have fun building your base back up from those smoldering embers.

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PortlandRocks:

Ed Rendell says this in public? You trolls are easy to fool. Obama hasnt been there in 10 days. Do you consider you might be being set up? ROFL

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Pazienza:

But much buzz today surrounds the apparently inadvertent leak of an internal poll by Barack Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania that supposedly showed the Democrat leading there by only 2 percentage points -- a much-slimmer margin than independent surveys have recorded for him and one that would make the race for the state a tossup.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/pennsylvania-in.html


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PortlandRocks:

jamesugw what CBS poll?

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boomshak:

@jamesugw:

I hate to say it - but Boom may be right. New CBS poll puts a tie.

Where are you seeing this? I haven't seen it posted. Are you serious or pulling our leg :)

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mac7396:

By all means let's grasp onto an AP poll that has data as far back as 10/16 when McCain hit a mini-surge. I'm sure that will be much more up to date than polls from 10/19-21

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Pat:

@boomshak,

You are really naïve. If Rendell was worried, he would pick up the phone and call Obama. He would not have to announce it publically. This is s trap. Obama's camp has been very strategic all along. You will find out soon.

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maddiekat:

Obviously pulling your leg

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

Ed Rendell says this in public? You trolls are easy to fool. Obama hasnt been there in 10 days. Do you consider you might be being set up? ROFL

Nope.

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PortlandRocks:

If there is a CBS poll today CBS doesn't know it.

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boomshak:

@maddiekat:

Obviously pulling your leg

That thought had occured to me as CBS would be the LAST poll on earth to show this tied :)

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PortlandRocks:

So Boom the DAILY tracking poll of PA shows Obama up 11, 10 yesterday. Tell me again about these "magic" internals and how they are so different and privy to info. the public pollsters don't have. IDIOT.

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jamesugw:

Re- CBS poll...sorry, Boom and KIpTin, I'm mistaken. But did it feel good that there was good news from a serious pollster? Did it? Aw.....

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PortlandRocks:

jamesugw thanks I almost had a heart attack. LOL

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paradski:

O is outspending M by 1.1 mill in PA. It's another rope-a-dope. He want's M to think there is a chance in PA... Sucka!

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syrac818:

Boomshak,

You've got to stop, dude. I feel like I'm watching somebody replace their intelligence with emotion, and it's getting worse every day.

Stop.

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Rollin08:

Lol jamesugw

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boomshak:

@jamesugw:

Re- CBS poll...sorry, Boom and KIpTin, I'm mistaken. But did it feel good that there was good news from a serious pollster? Did it? Aw.....

Lol, CBSNews a SERIOUS pollster? ROFLMAO! Really you should take that show on the road...

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zvelf:

Including this poll, RCP shows the average of all "non-partisan" national polls to be Obama by +6.8. It had narrowed to +5 for Obama only a few days ago. Between Powell's endorsement, the 100,000 turnout at the St. Louis rally, and the reporting of the $150 million in campaign contributions in September, Obama looks to have begun widening his lead again. With less than 2 weeks to go, he's only a point down from his peak a week and a half ago.

McCain has closed the gap some in Florida and Ohio, but Obama has increased his lead in Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia. Needless to say McCain has to take all five battlegrounds plus Pennsylvania and Nevada to win. Obama leads in all seven. Short of a terrorist attack, his leads in PA and VA are practically insurmountable at this point.

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KipTin:

Rendell is worried about voter turnout for Obama. A recent example: Democratic primary when the turnout in Philadelphia was depressed. I read one number of only 53%.

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PortlandRocks:

It is embarassing Boom. a few days ago ZOGBY rocked. Now Obama's up 10 in Zogby. Months ago it was GW, until Obama went up 13, now it's 2, it's GW again. FAIL. Yesterday it's ALL ABOUT RAS. Obama gains 2 in RAS and in his own words the race is AMAZINGLY steady with Obama over 50%. How do you feel about RAS today buddy?

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Completely ridiculous.

All respondents: Obama 47, McCain 37 (O+10)
Likely voters: Obama 44, McCain 43 (O+1)

The LV screen does an exception job of screening out Obama voters almost exclusively--young, minorities, etc. Yes, these groups have traditionally lower turnout rates, but not to the degree that this survey cuts them by. It's simply not credible.

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MichaelJason:

LOL. This poll is absolutely pathetic. 13% undecided? I'll bet Boomshak will cling to this poll as he does his guns and religion. :)

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maddiekat:

Boomshak

Please explain the internals of the TIPP poll please.

Dems O 87 M 5
Rep M 84 O 7
Ind O 42 M 38

It doesn't make sense

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IndependentThinker:

@boom****ED
@KipTinOldAgryWoman

Get freaking life
You can cherrypick any of them but that wouldn't be enough to alter the truth which is there's no sign whatsoever that the race is tightening
Did you watch Scott Ras on FOX News today? he said if things hold like this McTitanic is DONE


RCP Average 10/15 - 10/21 -- -- 49.8 43.0 Obama +6.8
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/19 - 10/21 1208 LV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/19 - 10/21 2299 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/17 - 10/20 1324 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

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boomshak:

FLORIDA SURGE?

USA Today:

Florida: Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting by nearly 3-to-2 among 630,000 voters.

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@KipTin:

For a primary? That's amazing turnout--the bar was just really, really high this year.

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PortlandRocks:

As Ive said ALL ALONG, you are better off watching the RCP average on a daily basis. This gives you a true idea of movement, who's ahead, trends, etc. God we are all guilty of freaking out over every jump. Obama has a clear, clear lead of about 6-7 points.

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laguna_b:

AP/Gfk Poll: Presidential Race Very Close
A new AP-Gfk poll shows the presidential race much closer than other recent polls. Sen. Barack Obama just barely edges Sen. John McCain, 44% to 43%, among likely voters.

However, when you look at total respondents to the survey, Obama's lead grows to ten points, 47% to 37%.

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katocat:

Never give up Boom & Kip... This place would be boring if noone was around pretending they like McCain.

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jamesugw:

KipTin - really, give it up. Take up another hobby. Boomshak can be a bit much - but in his defence, at least he's entertaining and colourful, and this site wouldn't quite be the same without him.

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MichaelJason:

Boom, once again you are wrong. Foxnews abandoned Opinion Dynamics for Rasmussen. CNN now uses Opinion Dynamics instead of Gallup.

BOOM=FAIL

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@Boomshak:

Republicans ALWAYS dominate absentee voting in Florida, and most other states, because they tend to be older, more likely to be in the military, and more rural (so they have a harder time voting in person). So don't get too excited yet--the interesting numbers are in genuine early voting.

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johncoz:

Boom,

Among other problems, this poll is ancient history -- it went into the field last Thursday. Here is my weekly graph for the 3-day trackers up to last night -- note that the numbers and trends comport with all the major poll aggregators, including Pollster, and have been further confirmed by Rasmussen and Gallup's convergence today.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3194/2962718755_5e9cebde07_b.jpg

Finally a reminder from your own fingers:
============
boomshak:

Anyway, for the next 3 weeks, watch Rasmussen.

Posted on October 13, 2008 8:08 AM

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MichaelJason:

Boom fails to mention the part of the article, where although McCain leads by absentee ballots, Obama MAKES up for it with early IN PERSON voting!

LOL

BOOMFAIL!

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Louis:

See 538 on the likley voter screens being used and why the ones showing a major difference are wrong.

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Pat:

@boomshak:

Regarding Florida absentee ballot, you would expect that republicans out-number dems. I think these are seniors who can not get to the polls.

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paradski:
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jatchwa:

Could someone explain to me what possesses some of your to respond to Boomshak? Or what possessed me to bother asking?

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thunkaboudit:

I'd really love to hear a heartfelt explanation as to how someone supports McCain so rabidly as boomshak does...

I'm truly baffled as to how anyone can love McCain at this point. He and Palin have been passively supporting and even stoking hate, divison, racism and bigotry. They're the ONLY reasons McCain is even close to Barack. Anything that McCain claims to be is long gone... he's sold his soul to the same people that have given us the last 8 years. The decision to put Palin as VP was HORRENDOUS. His foreign policy will drive America further down the toilet of the world. If he were to get elected and would be another big step backwards from even Bush.

Any takers? I'm not looking for Republican BS talking points.

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SwingVote:

Boomshack and KipTin, if you really believe McCain will win, you can make a fortune out of it. Go ti intrade and bet on McCain, which is traded at $13 now. You will get $100 when he is elected.

In my opinion, if you do so, you'll lose $13 rather than profiting $87 :)

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mac7396:

MichaelJason:
Boom fails to mention the part of the article, where although McCain leads by absentee ballots, Obama MAKES up for it with early IN PERSON voting!

Michael you could have stopped after your first two words ("Boom fails") because that pretty much sums it up.

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Mike Farrace:

Actually, I can find no mention of registered voters in this poll, only total respondents and likely voters. And there is no evidence of what questions were asked to determine likely voters.

One interesting thing was that 45% of respondents identified themselves as Evangelical Christian. Obama was preferred on all issues by good margins except national security. 68% thought Obama would win. Interesting take on polls which ask whether respondents are Evangelical here:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/08/beware-evangelical-polling-ahead.html

Generally, there seems to be no agreement on what the actual percentage is, nationwide. Lots of stories cite a 2000 number of 42%, others are as low as 8%. All have different definitions, so comparisons are difficult if not impossible. Anyone have any decent data of the percentage of evangelicals in the US?

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Stonecreek:

Hot off of the Rasputin website:

"Only 15% Say Madonna Good Role Model for Women"

It's the game-changer we've all been waiting for! Boomshack prevails! McCain will now waltz to victory!

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KipTin:

I am not "cherry-picking" the polls and neither Boomshak nor I have said anything that deserves the denigration by Independent Thinker.
------

Hey... jamesugw... what is your problem? I only explained why Rendell is in the news. BTW: I have AA friends in Philly and they were not happy about the LOW turnout for Obama in the primary.

From CNN... Governor Ed Rendell told a mostly African-American crowd in north Philadelphia-- “In the primary, only 53 percent of the registered voters in Philadelphia turned out. Twenty-four days from today, 53 percent will not cut it. It will not cut it if we want to make sure that Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States. We need to turn out at least 75 percent.”

So what do you have to say about that????

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spazboy:

Boom, once again you are wrong. Foxnews abandoned Opinion Dynamics for Rasmussen.

Fox uses OD for national polling and Ras for state polls.

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Ryguy:

boom, just curious, do you intend to answer anyones questions about why you suddenly switched from ras which you loved when it was close to this which you love because its close. certainly seems to demean you entire argument... just like every other thing that you say.

i also loved this line

"im telling you people, obama peaked too early"

oh how many things are funny about that. first off all for you to start anything with im telling you people automatically requires laughter. how often do you tell us people something only for it to be completely wrong? seems like youve been doing it for...oh... i dont know, years now? second of all, the obama peaked too early is an argument youve made EVERY SINGLE WEEK. dont you see a pattern or are you that delusional? every week you come on here and basically copy and paste the same thing. and every week the poll averages dont change, and you retreat to your dark corner until one or two more polls favors you, during which time you bash whatever poll you liked last week and pick this new poll as the one we all need to follow.

ugh... luckily theres less than 2 weeks left before you change the argument from mccain surging to why youre happy obama won so that us libs have it blow up in our face.

____________________

Stonecreek:

"Anyone have any decent data of the percentage of Evangelicals in the U.S.?"

As far as I can tell, virtually 100% of them are in the U.S. No one else seems to be plagued with them.

____________________

Louis:

Mike farrance:
Total respondents = registered voters. Non registered are screened out.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@KipTin:

"I am not "cherry-picking" the polls and neither Boomshak nor I have said anything that deserves the denigration"

This is bull****, you're the worst coward I've ever seen.

____________________

MichaelJason:

I heard from a friend that CNN is releasing some swing state polls that have "swung dramatically to Obama".... anyone have information on that?

____________________

chgo1:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

Ron Fournier's AP publishes a poll where 44% of those surveyed were born-again evangelicals. The actual 2004 percentage of born-again Christians was 23% according to the CNN exit polls.

Gee..I wonder why it's so close....LOL

____________________

KipTin:

FYI--- I never stated that I thought McCain would win... but I still have some hope because I am not looking forward to "REPO-rule" (Reid/Pelosi/Obama).

This ugly behavior in attacking people who do not support Obama is why I call you guys "Obamanation."

Those who support Obama and are respectful of other people who chose another candidate are not considered Obamanation.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Time/CNN Poll: Obama Leads in Key Red States
The latest Time/CNN poll shows Obama leading in four of five battleground states that went to President Bush four years ago.

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%

North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%

Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%

West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%

____________________

straight talk:

McCain is going to suffer on election Day! The word on the street is McCain does not have a strong Gotv effort goin right now! Obama has almost 50+ offices in the battleground states. Plus he is transporting college students to the polls! Yes McCain will be in Fl this WK, but make no mistake about it, his GOTV effort better improve or this thing won't even be close. I was just watchin McCain and Obama! And the difference I noticed in the two is, who is motivating the early voting and who is not? It is Obama! Just my Opinion! I think Fl. is about a tie, so the GOTV must come, if not SHUT THIS PARTY DOWN!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Yes, McCain leads by 1 nationally but is losing all the red states. HAHA.

Praise Jesus!

Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46
North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46
Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44
West Virginia: McCain 53, Obama 44

Just wanted the full list...

Praise Jesus!

____________________

johncoz:

@kiptin

You are cherry-picking polls. Heaven's above, you are on a site that shows the national spread as +6.8, which is identical to the RCP average, despite their different methodologies. You've got to desperate to be clutching at a little poll that went into the field last Thursday.

As for Rendell, he's doing exactly what the Obama campaign is doing everywhere -- pouring on the pressure for GOTV. The slickest campaign in recent political history is not stupid enough to sit back and coast to victory.

____________________

Louis:

Kiptin:
I say you and boomshack are cherry pickin. If we are arguing the merits of a the candidate I would consider all coments equal. But to argue that Obama is not well ahead in the polls requires a type of "alice in wonderland" logic that no intellegent person can take seriously.

____________________

jamesugw:

KipTin - apologies! I completely mis-read something you posted. Sorry.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

"Boom, once again you are wrong."

"how often do you tell us people something only for it to be completely wrong?"

roflmao! Once again, how can 1 person be so consistently wrong about EVERYTHING?

Boom, please, tell us. Isn't it embarrassing to be wrong CONSTANTLY? How does it taste when you pop those turds out of your mouth?

____________________

Rames1980:

"As Ive said ALL ALONG, you are better off watching the RCP average on a daily basis."

Agree 100%. The national trend tool on this site is also good, you can set the sensitivity to high to see more rapid changes. When there are a large number of daily polls, it's likely that every day there will be 1-2 polls that show a much tighter race than the average, or the actual state of the race.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@johncoz

Praise Jesus!

____________________

straight talk:

OBama is crushing McCain in Virginia!

____________________

OGLiberal:

I know we'll hear about how CNN is liberal and their polls suck and that you need to subtract +3 from their results because of bias but based on those state polls - and almost all of the national polls that were published today/this week - isn't it abundantly clear that this AP poll is a complete piece of garbage? It just should not be taken seriously. You want to believe that Obama is only up 3.7 like TIPP says, go ahead. It's better than this poll. But, but, but....the TIPP poll shows Obama trailing McCain by 10, 53-43, among voters 18-24. Yeah...right.

I think Rasmussen has it about right...this is a 6pt race nationally at this point. He's got 4% undecided. Give 1.5% of those to McCain, .5% to Obama, and 1% to third-party candidates and you've got an election day result of Obama 51.5 v McCain 47.5, with "Other" getting 1%. Sounds about right.

____________________

Mike Farrace:

Louis -- Thank you, yes. I was referring to boomshak's comment that registered voters were +5 Obama vs. +10 total and +1 likely. Registered voters are not broken out separately from total respondents as he seems to be saying.

____________________

rational exuberance:

I might get in trouble for saying this, but I think we should give Boomshack a break. After all if it was Obama who was down in all the national polls and had virtually no path to 270 and then there was this outlier that appeared to show things were tightening up, who among us wouldn't grasp that straw and hang onto it for dear life. I would just assume the polls at both the state and national level show this race as being very close to further motivate Obama supporters to get out the vote.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@KipTin

Nobody cares whom you support
Whom you're voting for doesn't matter
People on this blog are only tired of your partisanship, you partiality and your insanities

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin Rendell is doing an excellent job of keeping Dems in his state engaged and not taking anything for granted. Oh have dems learned:) I'm loving this. Great CNN results. VA - even the mason dixon +2 is a great result since they were the LAST pollster in that state to show a McCain lead. Adios VA GOP!

____________________

Some of the things wrong with this poll.

http://www.donkeyelephantrace.com/2008/10/beware-of-ap-gfk-poll.html

Very screwball poll.

____________________

HaitianObama:

This Poll is a big BS.. i just read the internal data... it's OBAMA +10RV, then how come LV is just +1... AP better get his stuff straight... Haitians
for OBAMA/BIDEN

____________________

OGLiberal:

@rational exuberance

"After all if it was Obama who was down in all the national polls and had virtually no path to 270 and then there was this outlier that appeared to show things were tightening up, who among us wouldn't grasp that straw and hang onto it for dear life."

None of us. We're Democrats. If we were in the McCain supporters' shoes, we probably would have given up 2 or 3 weeks ago, conceding the race to McCain, saying our party sucks and we pick sucky candidates. The wingers, however, are so nuts that they can find a diamond in even the biggest load of crap.

____________________

political_junki:

@KipTin:
"Those who support Obama and are respectful of other people who chose another candidate are not considered Obamanation."

Geez, I am sure all of them are relieved that by your standards they are not going to beconsidered Obamanation, they will send you their gratitude :)) As if anybody cares about your analogy.
You are just a bitter grump person, I would have said even if you were a Obama supporter .

Look at boomshak he supports McCain, nobody calls him grump or bitter!
By the way as for BOOMSHAK:


REMEMBER BOOMSHAK : IN THIS ELECTION YOU HAVE HAD ZERO CORRECT PREDICITON SO FAR AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE THAN 50 STARTING FROM THE ROMNEY WIN IN THE PRIMARY. TALK LESS, EDUCATE YOURSELF MAN!

____________________

Jeff:

How in the world do you get 8% "other/neither" AFTER you've read off Barr and Nader's names? The "undecideds" were actually only 1%; they also got a 3% "refused". I think there was something about this poll that just ticked people off; there was a sizeable poll of Obama supporters that decided "for whom will you vote" was nobody's business.

____________________

Jeff:

Make that "sizeable pool of Obama supporters" (sted poll).

____________________

HaitianObama:

Mysticlaker, are those new polls? please, let m e know so i can star having a FIESTA.....

____________________

katocat:

Say what you like, Obama is still winning... even in this poll.

: P

____________________

KipTin:

No... Independent Thinker... You are the rude partisan who insanely uses disparaging and offensive language to attack other posters on a daily basis.
---------

So Portland Rocks how does your defense of Rendell apply to me? I only reported what he said in support of the facts.
---------

Definitions of an "outlier"--

-An outlier is an observation that lies outside the overall pattern of a distribution (Moore and McCabe 1999).

-Outliers are atypical (by definition), infrequent observations; data points which do not appear to follow the characteristic distribution of the rest of the data.

http://www.uta.edu/faculty/sawasthi/Statistics/gloso.html

Bottom line-- The aggregate of these polls have samples at both low and high ends of the range, but none are so extreme at to be outliers. Mark Blumenthal wrote about this a month or two ago.

____________________

green baby green:

@ Boomshak

Sorry to pile on here, but you really cherry pick everyting! (polls, early voting, etc...) This is the same thinking that got us into Iraq. Is that really you W??? We all know you're not working much these days Georgie boy!...

____________________

Ryguy:

oh what a surprise. boom couldnt answer a question because he knew he was busted, and now hes moved on to another topic... about how the msm bias is the reason hes killing mccain in these latest cnn polls.

man boom, you are so predictable! just once i wish you would do something surprising... you know, like maybe predict something correctly. or answer a question honestly.

____________________

KipTin:

Well... political_junki...you have been irresponsibly/unjustifiablly rude to me so many times I can understand that you have always seen me as a "bitter grump person" but it is actually you who has displayed such behavior. Mostly you do not like reading facts, or opposing views, or even someone calling you out on your bad behavior.

And as for Boomshak... you guys are always denigrating him especially when he is right on target. Some of the names he is called I will not repeat here because they are so offensive.

I bet you cannot name one McCain supporter here on Pollster that has never been called vile names by Obamanation.

____________________

Rollin08:

LOL KipTin quit using Obamanation then. It's ok, it's all in good fun. Actually you can use Obamanation. I was a little put off by the impostors yesterday but who cares is someone says boomFAIL or something.

____________________

political_junki:

@KipTin:
I wasnt rude to you. I said you are grumpy and bitter and honestly you are, ateleast that is how you appear from your messages.

As for boom, you dont need to defend him, he is a tough guy, he can handle 3 forums like this alone.

"I bet you cannot name one McCain supporter here on Pollster that has never been called vile names by Obamanation."

We only have 3 McCain supporters posting on the forum here, it is a small sample size to draw conclusions on

____________________

Vox:

HELP! ??

Ok. I shall be clear. This is my first post here, and ONLY because of the AP poll released today 10/22/08.

I've been reading these polls far too long, but I do not understand where this one is coming from.

One poster noted it reflected 44% Evangelicals.

Now as many Evangelicals as there are praying for us, 44% of the American population isn't Evangelic. And that's of "likely" voters. Total respondents reported 45%.

Then there's the 54% who say McCain/Palin attacks are "mostly unfair" but 59% who say Obama attacks ARE FAIR.

Now my instinct is to say that the guys/gals who did this poll had no idea what they were doing. Those are just some of the inconsistencies.

If you'd post "an intelligent and civil" analysis of this, I'd be interested.


____________________

political_junki:

@VOX:
"If you'd post "an intelligent and civil" analysis of this, I'd be interested."

Dude, it is the Amazon jungle here, you are looking for civil analysis :) Seriously ?
(just kidding, or not !)

____________________

Vox:

OK.

Bring in the pythons and piranha, but I'd sure like to know what this one means before being nibbled to death than ingested whole.

____________________

political_junki:

@VOX:
I wish I could help you but I have no numbers or data on Evangelicas and their percentage etc...

____________________

mysticlaker:

@vox
23% of electorate is evangelical according to 2004

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297138/
---------------------------------------------

PRAISE BE TO BOOMSHAK. ALL MIGHT SEER! ALL PRAISE BOOMSHAK.

BOOMSHAK, the man and the freeper
BOOMSHAK, the cut and paster
BOOMSHAK, the main stream media destroyer
BOOMSHAK, the enemy of Bill Moyers

PRAISE HIM WITH GREAT PRAISE

____________________

wagthedog1001:

WOW! This is amazing. On the strength of one poll suddenly the whole tone of the race has shifted toward McCain with absolutely NO precipitating event that could have explained it. Suddenly all of the other polls are wrong.

Must be those cool clothes Sarah got a Needless Marckups!

One thing for sure, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

GOTV, VOTE, and WORK for OBAMA.

____________________

wagthedog1001:

WOW! This is amazing. On the strength of one poll suddenly the whole tone of the race has shifted toward McCain with absolutely NO precipitating event that could have explained it. Suddenly all of the other polls are wrong.

Must be those cool clothes Sarah got at Needless Marckups!

One thing for sure, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

GOTV, VOTE, and WORK for OBAMA.

____________________

Theodulf:

Let's see... where did those 9 percentage points go to? Well, let's go into the internals and do some multiplying...

All respondents: 517 Obama, 407 McCain
"Likely voters": 407 Obama, 344 McCain
Dropped by the "Likely voters" filter:
165 Obama, 63 McCain

My goodness, 72% of the people who were screened out were pro-Obama! Let's dig a little further:

All respondents: 23% (253) in the 18-29 age bracket
"Likely voters": 15% (120) in the 18-29 age bracket

So 53% of the under-30 respondents, or 133 people, were weeded out in the "likely voter" screen! What is their screen exactly, I wonder? Surely they aren't throwing out all the first-time voters?

____________________

RussTC3:

I love how the Adults sample has Obama up by 10 points, but then the likely voter model shrinks his lead to 1. LOL

Oh well, outliers are outliers. What are you gonna do?

____________________

Jeff:

If you were running a Presidential campaign in trouble only 2 weeks before the election, facing a daily barrage of 5-10% + leads for your opponent wouldn't it be kinda handy to get a poll out there that said the race was a lot closer? Just to cast doubt?

The problem McCain is facing now is getting his own people to show up. I think the excitement for Obama and the historic nature of saying "I voted for the first black President" will keep his turnout strong. McCain on the other hand... Republicans hate losers. If they don't think this is winnable you'll see a lot of them, at the 11th hour, washing their hands of McCain and saying he was a loser and didn't deserve to win because he just wasn't CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH.

____________________

KipTin:

All one has to look at regarding youth being (or not being) likely voters is historic data.

For example: In 2004, 47% of 18-24 year-old citizens turned out nationally, and 66% of citizens 25 years & older turned out.

Nationally, youth voting declined by 5 percentage points from 1972-2004 (i.e. 52% in 1972).

____________________

KipTin:

Actually, I voted in Democratic primaries for the first major-party African American candidate for President of the United States (Shirley Chisholm) as well as the second major-party African American candidate (Jesse Jackson). I have already participated in history... because I liked Shirley's and Jesse's messages.

But I find the idea of voting for someone for PRESIDENT to make history just because they are black to be a really lame reason for voting for Obama. Even my black Philly friend has legitimate reasons for voting for Obama rather than just race. We respectfully disagree on the candidates.

Most importantly my vote is directed against one-party rule as well as I agree with McCain on several issues. I do not want to make history with the REPO agenda (Reid/Pelosi/Obama).

____________________

Schill:


Get Breaking News Alerts

never spam
Share Print CommentsA new poll was released earlier today by the Associated Press that seemed to make imply that the race was tightening on a national scale. The Associated Press said:

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
AmericaBlog looked over the methodology, however, and a found that the poll skewed far too heavily in favor of Evangelical Christians. Click here for the complete breakdown:

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally flaw

____________________

RossPhx:

You know that $150 million that Obama raised last month? This polling company got $1.5 million of it, from the campaign's Apathy Prevention program.

____________________

Knyght:

RossPhx,

I am intrigued by your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I finally voted. Here in Texas, the lines were long on Monday and Tuesday. I got in around 2:30 PM and the place was full.

____________________

shirefox:
____________________

Chickadee:

Rural voters were also oversampled: 36% of respondents and 33% of likely voters described themselves as living in rural areas; only 20% of Americans live in rural areas.

____________________

doomshak:

Hi, how do you like my new name? I chose this name to reflect the doomed nature of my candidate, John McCain's, campaign.

All I see in the future is gloom and doom, gloom and doom. We are doomed. Obama the Black man is going to whip my White Southern butt. I feel so humiliated.

____________________

Rollin08:
____________________



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