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US: Obama 45, McCain 40 (IBD-TIPP-9/2-7)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily /
TechnoMetrica Institute of Public Policy
9/2-7/08; 868 RV, 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 45, McCain 40
(August: Obama 43, McCain 38)

 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

Wow! Didn't expect to see that!

Today's Gallup of 49%-44% suggested that McCain held the lead in last night's survey by about 2%. Gallup's write up today is laughably bad because they set up McCain for failure if he doesn't hold the lead in one month; Only Carter failed in that regard.

Meanwhile Rasmussen has it tied again, ARG still Obama +1, ABC was Obama +1 in LV, and now this... Showing even growth for both candidates.

When Gallups Saturday sample drops off and the poll goes back to McCain +1/+2, then the GOP may start to sweat again as the Bounce won't hold.

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Uri:

Wouldn't read much into this one, since it covers 9/2-9/7 and is hence ancient news.

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Jeff:

Yeah, but that 40% is as much an outlier as the 54% was in Gallup yesterday. Maybe the two ends of the extreme will wind up negating each other.

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pion:

This is just one poll that needs to be reproduced, but it is encouraging. The McCain supporters think their candidate can win on McCain's new 'change' message (before, I did not care much for listening to McCain speak but every time I hear him say 'change is coming to Washington' it makes my laugh so hard that I tune in just to hear say it!) with no new economic policies as compared to Bush, a foreign policy that seeks to outdo Bush (it's a bit sad to see Bush figuring things out in the twilight of his presidency---what a waste of an administration) and a message of 'taking on' earmarks which make up a whopping 1 percent of the federal budget with a VP candidate that comes from Alaska, the hungriest state for earmarks. I simply don't believe Americans are going to fall for it in the midst of the collapsing financial and housing market, with the Republian VP candidate being investigated for abuse of power in her own state. In some ways, I wish McCain actually had concrete new policies to offer instead of insulting our intelligence.

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Hope Reborn:

Real Clear Politics is a sham. If you take a look at their averages, they're carrying both the Daily Gallup tracker AND the Likely Voter Gallup Poll of +10 McCain.

Yet this poll, just released, and taken mostly over the span of the same period, is not included into the averages.

What a sham. Poll averages are not supposed to be selective; that is unless there is a reason to believe something is wrong with the poll. There is nothing to suggest there is anything wrong with this poll. With as many polls showing the race tied right now, to include the +10 Outlier rather than the more modest +4 finding, and not include this finding in the average is to totally destroy all credibility of RCP.

Pollster to call RCP on their selective bias.

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pion:

Sorry, I just noticed the dates for that poll so it probably doesn't mean much.

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serpounce:

Hope,
I think it's not included due to the dates, and I believe the two Gallup polls are conducted separately, so I don't see anything wrong with not counting them. This poll is a bit of sunshine for the Obama campaign, but since it includes at least some pre-RNC polling, it is rather dim.

Regardless, what's important is to look at polls over the next week, not whether RCP includes one poll or another.

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Lionidze:

The Today polls don't compute. If you look at the internal workings, the people who were not listed as "likely voters", but were "registered" voters, would have to have supported Obama by 70% in order to obtain the results the two polls claimed. It is highly questionable whether that could occur and it is highly questionable whether that percentage of Obama supporters, who have a high enthusiasm level, would not have been among the "likely" voters. There probably was some poor weighting going on that had the registered voters up 4% for McCain and the likely voters up 10%. It's more likely the registered voter poll was more accurate and the likely voter poll was an outlier of some proportion.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Hope Reborn:

I've been noticing that about RPC lately - what used to appear to be a seemingly moderate website has starting tilting right, and the example you gave is one of many.

I actually emailed John McIntyre to express my concerns and he actually wrote back and asked why I thought the site was right-leaning. I gave several examples and of course he didn't write back.

These guys are on Fox News and Hugh Hewitt so they can no longer be considered non-partisan.

Just like almost every other political site on the Internet, RCP has become a partisan sham.

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Snowspinner:

What a stupid period of time to poll over.

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The Gallup polls are flawed (yet again, like every poll that has shown good news for McCain) by serious oversampling of Republicans. Basically Gallup created the impression of a major swing in McCain support by changing the proportion of Republicans polled up to an equal level with Democrats, in spite of the fact the registered Democrats out number registered Republicans by about 4:3.

The people at Gallup must be smart enough to realize what they are doing. And it's Gallup that consistently does this crap.

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boomshak:

9/2 - 9/7? Why the heck would anyone poll during that period? Weird.

Again, they don't expose their sample demographics so accept the findings at your own peril.

The bottom line - overall this race is close and McCain has the momentum. The PROBLEM for Obama is that he needs to be ahead by at least 5-8 points a week before the election as people always move to the right at the end.

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