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US: Obama 45, McCain 42 (IBDTIPP-10/9-14)

IBD-TIPP
10/9-14/08; 872 LV, 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 45, McCain 42

By Eric Dienstfrey on October 15, 2008 4:34 PM |

 

Comments
m913:

13% undecided? What are these people waiting for? Maybe they just cannot see much difference between them?

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alankeyesisawesome:

Wow, McCain is SURGING!!!!!

Take that Obama bin Laden!

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DTM:

@m913

If you look at the crosstabs, there is a disproportionate number of undecideds in the independent/other category. Personally, I'd interpret that as people more just being unwilling to commit to an answer in advance, as opposed to not seeing a distinction at this time.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

I'd be reluctant about anticipating a McCain "surge."

The Dow lost eight percent of its value on the day of the last debate, the one that will focus on domestic issues. John McCain has several options:

(1) Appease boomshak, alankeyesisawesome, Sean Hannity, and the rest of the lunatic fringe by bringing up Obama's "radical associations." Downsides: no one outside the lunatic fringe is buying it, and today's events make that rhetoric seem desperately irrelevant.

(2) Focus on the issues and get hammered for espousing the GOP's extremely unpopular economic orthodoxy.

(3) Launch some new program, make some new promise, or do something else unexpected. Problem is, there are but so many rabbits McCain can credibly pull out of his hat. At some point, his gimmicks start to look like, um, gimmicks.

Whichever path he chooses, his defeat will continue becoming more inevitable. He's finished, and I think he knows it.

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ashley:

Yes, witness the mighty -1 point surge!

McCain was only -2 in yesterday's IBD poll.

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bpd1069:

CNN has just updated their map - has Obama at 277.

First MSM outlet to do so...

I smell a landslide.

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IndependentThinker:

Of course McTitanic is SURGING, all average polls show him behind by more than +7 and CNN/pollster/RCP have his path to the presidency narrow. He's surging so much that now he's using a big deal of his resources to defend VA,NC states that didn't vote for Democrats for decades. Those Republicans just can't understand that mathematically all polls can't show the same results, their results depend on their party ID weightings

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BOOMFAIL:

@alankeyesisawesome:
"Wow, McCain is SURGING!!!!!
Take that Obama bin Laden!"

People like you make me sick. Hope you benefit from the Rethug policies of the last 8 years
Stupid F%ck

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alankeyesisawesome:

@BOOMFAIL:

Wow, another angry Demoncrat who needs to resort to namecalling! Shame Shame Shame!

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IndependentThinker:

@alankeyesisawesome

Are you losing your bearings?
You're the first one who used namecalling by saying "Obama bin Laden"
Apparently truth hurts
If you weren't a Stupid F%uck as BOOMFAIL said you would let it go as I and other democrats do so far

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BOOMFAIL:

I am not calling alankeyesisawesome any names. Just clearly stating the fact that her reference to the soon to be President Obama being equivalent to the most dreaded terrorist known to man is the sickest thing one can do. This is soon to be the president for God's sake. I do however stand by my judgement on her intelligence.

DUMB F%CK

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DTM:

I think we may need a wiki about our frequent posters. For example, I think it is pretty clear that "alankeyesisawesome" is a parody troll.

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NHBlue:

A parody troll, I think so. But it goes to show how absurd the Republicans have become that they're indistinguishable from parodies. You can say the most ridiculous things under a conservative alias, and no one knows whether or not it's a joke.

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IndependentThinker:

Just-released Rasmussen polls

NM : O 55 / M 42
MA : O 62 / M 34
Kansas : O 41 / M 54
IL : O 56 / M 39`

I like the NM one, a state won by Bush 4 years ago that justifies the McCain's SURGE :-)

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alankeyesisawesome:

@IndependentThinker

To you and those others who are accusing me of name-calling...well, maybe I am, but I feel a moral obligation to do so. In these sort of instances, one has to do what is required out of respect for God's will, and that's what I believe I am doing here. As many of you atheist idiots do not believe in God, this does not apply to you.

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Schill:

this poll always has a high number of hispanics undecided--like 26%--they need to hire a hispanic speaking pollster--and the urban areas and the east and west which have the highest popularity, Obama leads by 20 to 25 percent, overall the lead is still 3%, impossible.

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Viperlord:

He has a moral obligation to name-call and lie? LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL.

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Viperlord:

Lying and name-calling is the opposite of moral, something the Far Right and it's followers don't understand.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Viperlord:
Well, it is the difference between killing an enemy in a declared war, rather than an actual murder.

As there has been a declared war in this election the secular humanists on unborn babies and the traditional family / marriage, I should be able to take whatever means necessary to engage in the quest for moral righteousness...whether or not I have to lie, cheat, etc. We just need to get McCain/Palin elected, he will put enough justices on the supreme court to overturn Roe v. Wade, something that's badly needed. If Jesus Christ were alive today he would not cast a vote for Obama.

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metsmets:

If Jesus Christ were alive today he would not cast a vote for Obama.

He isn't an American citizen so he doesn't have a vote. I suspect Bush wouldn't have allowed him into the country because he had radical views..

"37"Then the righteous will answer him, 'Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? 39When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?'

40"The King will reply, 'I tell you the truth, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers of mine, you did for me.'

Doesn't sound like a Republican position, does it?

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NW Patrick:

Karl Roves Map: http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0042/McCain-Obama_10_14_08.pdf

How about that WA Post story about McCain cell towers? WHAT A MAVERICK working against free shit from lobbiests!

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MNlatteliberal:

@alankeysisgod, whatever happened to turning the other cheek? being a pagan atheistic godless communist, means that i am perpetually misinformed and sidetracked by the devil (btw, how do we know you are not the voice of the devil? the devil, after all, is very subtle), but i have heard that turning the other cheek was very much a focal point of christianity. one of the tenets, one might say, were one so inclined.

what say ye, alankeysisawesome?

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NW Patrick:

What does Jesus say about calling your new wife a C**NT and leaving the 1st one after she was mangled in a car accident?

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alankeyesisawesome:


@metsmets

I mean if he were an American citizen...and very much likely as we are the most Christian nation out there!

And as for those biblical passages, that applies to private charity, not government charity. You see, private Charity can be based upon Christian tenets...and any sort of nonreligious charity is completely and utterly worthless....just face it.

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wakeup:

MN,
(from earlier) No, no, I only meant that the constitution decides who is qualified to be president.

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metsmets:

@alankeyesisawesome

I go to a local church that will and does perform gay marriages. We have a large gay membership - Democrats and Republicans. We are not "declaring war" on your view of marriage and we respect your right to not conduct such ceremonies in the church of your choice. We do not feel the state of California should redefine marriage if it deprives some of its citizens of the benefits of marriage. We do not believe in discrimination.

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NW Patrick:

McCain's third debate loss in a row begins in 10 min! Stand by!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@MNLatteLiberal

I'm not falling for that...you want me to turn the other cheek...well, what happens when I look back and the institution of marriages is ruined because we allowed homosexuals to marry, and then subsequently people were allowed to marry sheep? I think that is terrible, I'm not turning the other cheek for that.

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MNlatteliberal:

wakeup, does it say in the constitution that one always has to be born in the United States to be considered a natural born US Citizen?

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome LOL yah. Don't let gay's marry. You think the divorce rate is through the roof now due to the mockery evangelicals have made of marriage! Just wait!:)

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick


I won't address your question because we're here to talk about the presidential race and polling, not talk about unsubstantiated claims about McCain.

Next!

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wakeup:

NYT just announced that Obama won the debate easily...

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Southern Dem:

alankeysisgod:

I was under the impression that Christians weren't supposed to pass judgment.... you know, Matthew 7:1? You should know that by heart, considering I, a "pagan atheistic godless communist" can recite it word for word.

RE: If Jesus Christ were alive today he would not cast a vote for Obama.

What the hell does being an American citizen have to do with the way Jesus would vote? If you remember, Jesus was a Middle Eastern... and Republicans like do declare war on... Middle Easterners! And since he had no oil, your political party would have killed him.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@metsmets

I'm sorry to say, but just based on your description of the church, it does not sound like it is a Christian church. You cannot cherry-pick specific bible verses and discard all others.

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metsmets:

and any sort of nonreligious charity is completely and utterly worthless.

@alankeyesisawesome

Why, because it doesn't lead to eternal salvation? Is that all you are concerned with?

It was a parable taught by Jesus Christ about how the true follower would behave and thus identifed as a true follower. By his or her actions.

I will vote for candidate who best reflect that view. And continue my private charity...

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wakeup:

MN,
I know what you are getting at... US military bases count as US territory.

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Southern Dem:

You know, it seems lately that most of the gays are republicans (think the bathroom fiasco that the Republican senator had... LOL!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick

My parents are also evangelical Christians and they have been married for over 30 years. So no logic in your argument! Also, it is the atheists that have the highest rates of divorce, I bet. Haven't seen any studies about it but pretty sure it's the case.

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MNlatteliberal:

alankeysisgod, of course you are not turning the other cheek; that much is obvious. the issue is not you per se, but the central tenet of christianity as it pertains to the alan keys of this christian republican world in general? do they reject turning the other cheek because the devil got to them?

and once again, how do we know that you are not the devil?

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NW Patrick:

No dems are just out and proud gays. Republicans are in the closet..it's sad.

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metsmets:

@alankeyesisawesome

We consider ourselves to be a Christian Church - part of a major denomination that help found the United States. We said a prayer after Bible Study last night to the same Jesus that you believe in. We believe that the gospel is valid for gay people too. We don't condemn them or consider them less worthy of God's love...

..apparently you do..

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alankeyesisawesome:

@metsmets:

Exactly...we need to kill 2 birds with one stone...allow people to realize salvation and feed them as well. It is the most efficient way to provide charity and by only feeding them, you are just throwing away money into people's mouths.


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MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup, of course they do, but only after August 4, 1937. I forget when McCain was born.

(and no, you have no idea what i am getting at, btw, but nice try :)

here is a hint, though:
Btw, does Mexico count as a US Base?

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alankeyesisawesome:

@metsmets:

Of course we need to love the sinner hate the sin...But we cannot just
sit idly by and approve of that sin being committed, which is
apparently what your church does.

Well, I've apparently won this debate here, now gonna go off and watch the real one. Of course McCain will win.

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MNlatteliberal:

debate comment #1:
mccain - bad choice of tie, makes him look even more bland than he is. where was cindy to dress him up? and stripes on TV? pah-leez

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bmrKY:

"alankeyesislame:

Well, I've apparently won this debate here, now gonna go off and watch the real one. Of course McCain will win."

Dude, you need to stop hitting the acid.

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MNlatteliberal:

nice, Obama has a stellar hit with the first answer. stays at the very top throughout the 1st response. meanwhile, mccain is flatlining with his rebuttal about joe the 280K/yr plumber

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MNlatteliberal:

mccain is losing the middle with joe the plumber story, women faster than men.

obama is still flat with the details, ah, going up when talking about the middle class bracket. nice! soundbites, is all the americans can digest.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Like McCain knows someone who only makes 280K/yr, unless that is the contractor he uses on his AZ homes.

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MNlatteliberal:

mccain is STILL losing them with joe the plumber! I don't think America is sympathetic to the $280,000 joe the plumber.

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MNlatteliberal:

Ohio undecided response to Obama's answer to Q2 hits the ceiling again. McCain is still flat, a minute into his response.

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is doing better than in the first two debates, but the voter response is still below Obama's. Especially with women.

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MNlatteliberal:

Bob saved McCain's butt with that "time", as McCain ventured into his favorite planetarium outer space and the meter dipped. not fair! give McCain enough rope to hang himself, even if it takes another minute!

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OneAngryDwarf:

Yawn... McCain is recyling the "I'm going to cut spending" crapola.

Perhaps he doesn't realize that Billion is more than Million.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Nice Obama with the Fox News dig.

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is flat lining with women on Q3. OK with men.

Nice answer from Obama on crossing over to the other side of the isle. Not registering with the undecideds though. He ought to mention 10 billion a month we won't be spending in the war!

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OneAngryDwarf:

Ooh here it comes, the "terrorist" question...

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zotz:

Here it comes!

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MNlatteliberal:

I like this advertising question from Bob. Nice!

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is flat! Goldwater gets ZERO traction with the voters.

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OneAngryDwarf:

McCain lames out. Brings up the townhalls? Say what? If Obama had agreed to do the town halls he wouldn't be a terrorist?

Say what?

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is not mentioning Ayers! chickenshit!

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OneAngryDwarf:

Nice turn it back to the issues. Way to go O.

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MNlatteliberal:

Obama /looking McCain in the eyes/: John, 100% of your ads have been negative.
McCain /blinking at Obama like a doll/: it's true.

LOL

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zotz:

I think McCain has got the men.

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OneAngryDwarf:

MN I'm watching CSPAN and they don't have the needles. What does the CNN focus group look like during this discussion of negative ads?

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MNlatteliberal:

NICE!!! OBAMA CONFRONTS MCCAIN on "kill him and terrorist! And MCCAIN LOSES IT, interrupting him. Not going to play well.

Erratic.
Another interruption!
LMAO

McMELTDOWN

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zotz:

McCain is getting angry.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Just wanted to come on to comment about how everything is going during the debate...overall, McCain is very calm & collective, focusing in on the economy.Barack HUSSEIN Obama is erratic, all over the place, engaging in personal attacks. Looks like Obama is gonna blow at any time.

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is FLAT during the negative ads and he is avoiding the issue now.

Obama was a bit better with the response from the audience. Nice, reasoned answer with the needle up about 80%, 1Agnry, esp. women.

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zotz:

Obama is getting the women.

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MNlatteliberal:

Ooooh, Obama is going to unleash it now on ACORN. McCain wandered into it. It's on his shoes now.

Obama brings up Ayers!
Bull by the horns.

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain looks constipated during Obama's response on ACORN. The turtleman's got something up his sleeve. he is grinning

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MNlatteliberal:

McCain is below 50% with both men and women on Ayers. The first time the meter dipped below 50%!

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zotz:

Obama has passed the test. Obama stayed cool and McCain is stumbling. It didn't work!

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BOOMFAIL:

Joe the Plummer???

Obama passed the Ayers test with flying colors!

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MNlatteliberal:

zotz - fwiw, agree with your assessment thus far.

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BOOMFAIL:

Intrade's taking off for Obama as well!

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MNlatteliberal:

women just don't like Palin, period

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MNlatteliberal:

McFail just lost men too with the Iraq War non-sequitor. Nice

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jonny87:

im an obama supporter...but i aint sure hes winning this debate

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zotz:

Obama aced the VP question. It looks like the women don't like McCain's answer. I think Obama is too cautious in criticizing Palin. It's like a taboo.

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OneAngryDwarf:

The party at my house keeps telling McCain to let Obama finish. Seems to me like he is being rude again.

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MNlatteliberal:

jonny87, are you watching the meter on CNN?
it tells a great story: mccain had 'em and lost 'em. somewhere between joe the plumber and iraq.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Uh McCain is starting to condescend again. Yuk!

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MNlatteliberal:

@1Angry, McCain was at his worst during the time Obama brought up Palin's rally battle cries of terrorist and kill him. 3 times. And the meter caught it. They HATED McCain's interruptions.

Since then, McCain chilled and is more civil.

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zotz:

I thought the line would go up when McCain mentioned drilling. It didn't go up.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Good the mood here seems to be tracking the CNN meters then.

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zotz:

Great! I saw McCain roll his eyes! Keep doing that!

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OneAngryDwarf:

The angry old man strikes again!!!

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MNlatteliberal:

@1Angry, are you perchance in Ohio, surrounded by indecisive women? (If so, keep them away from boomshack; they are vulnerable)

oooh, mccain just lost women again. below 50% on the nafta thing. wonder why? he is flat attacking obama and bringing up Hoover. Americans have no clue who the f Hoover was! "Hoover, isn't that a vacuum?"
McFlat.

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BOOMFAIL:

Obama's doing great. Keep looking into the camera! One more debate where even if this was a tie, (which it is not) McCain is NOT knocking him out by any means. Keep up the great job Obama.

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MNlatteliberal:

through the roof on healthcare for Obama! Stellar.


McCain is flat: his coldheartedness shows through.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Oh god not Joe the plumber again...

Memo to McCain staff, we don't care about Joe the plumber.

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mirrorball:

omfg: Enough with Joe the Plumber!

Was he a Marvel or DC Comics character?

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MNlatteliberal:

McFail holding steady below 50% with women criticizing Obama's hcare

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BOOMFAIL:

Joe the Plummer AGAIN! McCain dips WAY below 50 when he keeps bringing the plummer up. WTF with Joe the plummer?!?!?

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NW Patrick:

McCain loses every debate because he talks about Obama more than anything he will DO for the country. He's obsessed with President Obama!

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jonny87:

MNlatteliberal,

yeh ive got cnn on, dont think obama did aswell on the economic issues as in the previous debate, nor did obama have much up his sleeve for ayers. (altho healthcare is always a massive winner for obama)

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OneAngryDwarf:

I love it when Obama hits McCain on the tax credit thing. Makes me smile.

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vmval1:

McCain has performed better today. I am going to predict (in honour of Boomshak) that the polls will give a narrow win to McCain

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NW Patrick:

McCain looked so petty talking about ACORN and Ayers. Did anyone notice the change of subject when McCain went right into the economy. It was so akward.

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CaliforniaIndie:

The "0 penalty" line from Obama looked like an uppercut. McCain was practically star-struck.

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MNlatteliberal:

the undecideds just do not like anything even remotely confrontational. Obama was riding 100% w both men and women until he began explaining the drawbacks of McPlan. Now he has 80-90 women and 60 men.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Enough about Joe already, no one cares.

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vmval1:

Hey I just worked something out! He's simply replaced "My Friends" with "Joe the Plumber"

Seriously... think about it

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OneAngryDwarf:

How come Obama explains John's health care plan better than John does?

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MNlatteliberal:

"big government at its best" earns McFail the lowest dip of the debate. Now McCain is in the shithouse with men AND women - 40%

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IndependentThinker:

I am tied of references to Joe the plumber
Joe the plumber doesn't represent all Americans

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alankeyesisawesome:

Obama looks like he's getting whipped...this is definitely a turning point in the election. The best part is when McCain brought up Palin's autistic daughter, only to result in an attack from Obama.

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zotz:

Obama aced the health care question. McCain seems to be uninspiring. Whoa! Women went down when McCain mentioned Joe the plummer. Obama has destroyed McCain's plan and McCain responds with sarcasm. Not convincing!

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Ryan in MO:

Senator Government?

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Pat:

McCain just droped to 15.7 on intrade. They don't like his performance.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Here it comes, "legislate from the bench."

Yawn...

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