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US: Obama 46, McCain 42 (IBD/TIPP-10/19-23)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily(IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP)
10/19-23/08, n=1,008 likely voters, margin of error +/- 3.5
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 46, McCain 42


 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

ahhh and so the last stubborn hold out falls... maybe Monday we'll be treated to a new AP poll showing Obama +5... any pollster going into Nov 4th with a less than Obama 4% lead will have massive egg on their face.

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scottkj:

funny how they post this IBD poll, when they did not post yesterday's showing 1pt lead....hmmmmm

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JCK:

Still waiting for the great Obama collapse of '08.

I mean, Boom predicted it. So it must be true.

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BarackO'Clinton:

What will be the Drudge headline about "2004's most accurate pollster?"

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Cephme:

@ScottKJ
They who? Pollster? It was posted here yesterday and caused some pretty hefty debate. It is figured in to the trend, about 10 from the top in the data listing.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@BarackO'Clinton

I'm sure it will be right after the retraction of the Ashley Todd story.

Drudge is such a tool.

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scottkj:

@Cephme thanks didn't see it.

How about ABC....where are there internals showing how they weigh voters?

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ctj:

Am I correct in thinking that since this poll still has an absurd # for McCain among the youngest group that Obama's lead would probably be larger if they polled that group correctly?

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mysticlaker:

mccain surge?

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Cephme:

@ScottKJ
Can't help you there.
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1077a9Tracking5.pdf

goes in to the questions they asked but I did not see the weighting in there and don't have time to look further. Headed out for the night.

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metsmets:

SURGE!

So 18-24 voters in this poll are moving towards Obama.

MASSIVE MO
Obama picked up 8 pts overnight. Today 30% as opposed to 22% yesterday.

I still think the two to one advantage that McCain has enjoyed with this age group is SUSPECT.

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Cephme:

@ScottKJ
PS The reason this poll is found further down the list is that it has a longer period than most of the others. It is a 5 day poll instead of a 3 day, and I believe the order is based on some formulation of the "age" of the poll, making this slightly "older" that the ones that come out from the 3 day polls on the same day.

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Matthew6:33:

Chin up, McCain fans-

Rasmussen now has McCain within margin of error in New Hampshire-


Election 2008: New Hampshire Presidential Election
Obama’s Lead Cut to Four in New Hampshire
Friday, October 24, 2008 Email to a Friend
The presidential race in New Hampshire has grown closer, with Barack Obama now leading John McCain 50% to 46%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

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orange24:

I think all media outlets are really excersizing a lot of restraint in not reporting this racist incident by a McCain campaigner in PA - even MSNBC. This could be the knock-out blow to the McCain camp. If Ayers is on the table, this should be too.

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scottkj:

@ Matthew.

YES MCCAIN BACKERS...keep the faith. I'm in WA state (liberal mecca) and I go out every evening and wave my MCCain banner and get honks from most cars. We are out there in masses, the media is just hiding us.

The media will have some splainin' to do on Nov 4,5.

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deeznutsrepubs:

What are you talking about orange? It is on the top of the stories list at cnn.com


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/24/mccain.sticker/

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AZAndy:

This is not an accurate poll. As Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com pointed out this morning: IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?

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boomshak:

Obama is a failure.

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boomshak:

MORE PROOF BIG ADVANTAGE IN EARLY DEM TURNOUT IS BULLSH*T:

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=102386&catid=339

Early voter numbers show tight situation in Colorado

DENVER - Marla Soukap is one of thousands of voters in Colorado who decided to vote early. Soukap has traditionally voted by mail.

On Wednesday, she dropped off her mail ballot at one of Denver's early voting centers. This year, she turned in her ballot partially because of her concerns about potential problems at the poll.

"There have been just too many reports coming in from other states already with problems with voting machines, and I don't want to be in long lines in November," said Soukap.

According to early voting statistics posted by Colorado's Secretary of State on Tuesday, 96,104 mail-in ballots were returned by Democrats. Republicans turned in 99,306. When looking at the number of voters who showed up at early voting centers, 9,173 were Democrats and 6,309 were Republicans.

"When you actually add it all together I'm not sure if it's much more than a wash," said Norman Provizer, Political Science Professor at Metropolitan State College of Denver.

Provizer says while it may be an early "wash," early voting is something Democrats are actively courting.

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boomshak:

@orange24:

I think all media outlets are really excersizing a lot of restraint in not reporting this racist incident by a McCain campaigner in PA - even MSNBC.

No the "restraint" is being show by the MSM in NOT reporting about the election donation fraid being perpetrated by the Obama campaign.

This story about the chick being attacked is just one nutty girl doing something stupid.

The Obama corruption is pervasive yet no news.

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Oldy75:

Boom prove the corruption... Wait no proof, if you could even offer a sliver of real proof the MSM would have to cover it.

Story=Fail

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johncoz:

Boom, when the story about "just one nutty girl" first broke it was plastered over right-wing blogs around the nation. Now that this turns out to be a piece of race-baiting, everyone goes quiet. Rank hypocrisy.

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boomshack:

johncoz:

Boom, when the story about "just one nutty girl" first broke it was plastered over right-wing blogs around the nation. Now that this turns out to be a piece of race-baiting, everyone goes quiet. Rank hypocrisy.

The only difference, I would add, is that she did not have her own Rev. Al Sharpton. If Pat Robertson had any cojones, he'd be like all up in that Ashley Todd.

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biasbipartisan:

Call me crazy but I think that it is funny that the 18-24 is O 30% and M 64%.
There is an asterisk next to it which denotes 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size.
Telling

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jobloblo:

You can recompute the underlying demographics in the poll using elementary linear algebra. For instance, among the poll's respondents, the conservative/moderate/liberal breakdown is...
conservative: 41%
moderate: 52.4%
liberal: 6.6%
To put it mildly this is suspect. And look at the region breakdown. You need to seriously overpoll the south to get that end result.
Also, let's assume that they basically did not poll ANYONE in the 18-24 bracket (which is the only excuse one can think of). In other words, let's assume that the weight of these voters is close to negligible. Then the rest of the age demographics is the following
25-44: 37%
45-64: 26%
65+: 37%
Note the sudden and mysterious disappearance of baby boomers!
Also (judging on the last few polls of these guys) 30% of Americans live in rural areas (whereas US census puts it around 20%)
In other words, McCain and Obama are in a very tight race among old people living in rural areas of southern states. I'm sure McCain is thrilled to know about that...

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Fioreb:

Perhaps it would be wise to follow the guidelines offered a couple of days back. The up and downs coming out of the daily snapshot is anything but noise. The only irrefutable data point is the Obama has led in each and every poll since the week after the conclusion of party conventions and the trend has remained stable at the national level with some fluctuation in key battleground states. Should things stay as they are Obama would cling the presidency (projections across media strata put him at 273 to 300+ electoral votes). I am looking forward to see what will happen between now and November 4.
Btw I would love to hear the meaning McCain supporters give to the +3 points to Obama in this poll compared to that of yesterday. Did I read correctly that this poll is weighted on 4-5 days? If so a +3% could mean that a bad data point was dropped at the beginning of the day series or yesterday % for Obama went through the roof.

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truth seeker:

jobloblo: you came to the same conclusions I did. I called them to ask about these problems ... I got laughter on the other end of the call ?!

I don't know if they are serious about their work ...

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TJIRISH34:

Has anyone read Investor's editorial pages? It's soo far to the right... BTW that AP poll showing Obama up 44-43. Atlamtic Monthly whatisname reporter looked at the poll. Poll shows 48% of the likely voters identified themselves as evangicals. I don't have link but that is what the poll shows in it's internals. Article said most pollers count half that amount as evangicals when polling. It's a flawed poll.

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GlassHalfFull:

Hey Scott - I live in WA, too, and in a district with a Republican congressman. And around here, McCain signs and stickers are so rare that you notice every one. Obama signs and stickers are everywhere, so common they blend into the background.

Maybe if you looked close, you'd see that the people honking are flipping you off with their other hand.

On Nov. 4, the main reason I'll be happy is that Obama will have a huge mandate to get the country moving in the right direction again. Knowing how miserable it will make all you McCain delusionists will just be a perk.

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Obama008:

Sorry but this has to be said about this poll.

What the ****.

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