Pollster.com

I'll give you the Reuters/Zogby poll...it's their first published so they're model may cause the race to appear closer. But this one? The shift just seems to great. And tied on the economy? Have to call this one an outlier until I see other polls showing it this close. The biggest outlying factor here isn't so much the 2pt gap but the economy question - even in the polls that are showing the race in the low single digits, Obama leads on the economy question.

Well if there was any doubt if this is a Republican Polster...

Party ID

Dems 40%
Reps 38%
Ind 18%

Yesterday they gave the Dems a 5% advantage in Part ID which was already to low!

Man, some weird polling going on out there.

Polls that have traditionally been rough on McCain (CBS, Reuters/Zogby, DemCorps and Hotline) all now show a VERY close race.

Polls that have favored McCain (Rasmussen, Battleground) show a blowout.

Weirdness.

I think the Ayers thing is starting to stick though. Even CNN is reporting that Obama has been lying about his relationship with Ayers.

Does anyone really believe independent voters favor McCain on the economy by +8? Please.

Party ID
D 40%
R 38%
I 18%

McShame tied on the economy on this poll. Riiiiigggggghhhhhtttt.

I got some swamp land I can sell ya Joe Six pack if you believe this one!

BOOMSHAK:
People could care less about Ayers, you are just wishful thinking.
Obama's numbers may drop but it wont be because of Ayers.

Boom.. the Ayers story has legs only in your brain. Even Illinois GOP members say it's all boloni. However, keep talking about it: I am sure plenty of Americans will drop the economy to follow your subject.
RCP has Obama +5.3, that's where he is, WITHOUT margin of error!

Give me a break, even Rasmussen gives the Dems a 6% sampling advantage, and that's a conservative estimate. The party ID on this poll is completely bonkers.

Obama supporters, please explain to me why Americans should accept Obama as an EXPERT on the economy?

1. What economic experience does he have?
2. What major enterprise (other than an election) has he ever managed and how did it turn out?
3. What is his brilliant economic plan that will save is from a great depression?

It's all smoke and mirrors.

@political_junki:

BOOMSHAK:
"People could care less about Ayers, you are just wishful thinking."

Perhaps not, but they care about being LIED TO about Ayers and now even CNN has called him out on it.

You got to love a polster who changes party ID by 3% without even mentioning it.

Fail

Can someone link me to the Hotline Poll, I can't find it.

BOOM:

"Obama supporters, please explain to me why Americans should accept Obama as an EXPERT on the economy?"
1-People in general trust democrats more.
2- You ask why "should they?" They already do, you have to ask "Why do they?"

@boomshak

I really do wonder why you do this; the people who follow these threads aren't persuadable. Everyone here is already firmly behind a candidate, so why do you subject us to the endless streams of absurdity and outright lies? All it does is annoy people, undermine your candidate, and make you look a complete fool.

I'd really hoped that after your infantile temper tantrum and pouting session yesterday you would finally give up. However, you seem to have gotten even worse today. Please, stop lowering the level of discourse and wasting everyone's time.

Boom, a link in the CNN website for the story would help.. could not find it.. hmm.. probably is NOT newsworthy.. except for you that is!

boomshak:

Link or it didn't happen.

And I mean a credible site--like, you know, CNN itself.

maddiekat:

"You got to love a polster who changes party ID by 3% without even mentioning it."

You know, I sure don;tg here much sqwauking from you guys when Dems get a 9-16 point cushion.

Did it ever occur to you that people are becoming so disgusted with Obama's lies that they are changing party affiliation in droves?

Rasmussen's Party Affiliation numbers are an average of 56 weeks and lag a week behind in being changed.

Any sudden changes in the electorate are not recognized.

Ill take Obama up 2 or 3 with a 2% DEM party ID advantage. Let's see how well that works out since the national average is somewhere around 10%.

GWU has Obama +7.

@Noah Jigaboo:

If you knew anything about polls at all, you'd know that this one is obviously an outlier in the worst way.

@NW Patrick:

I think what has happened here is that Hotline has caught a sudden shift from Independents to Republican affiliation.

People are upset that Obama is lying to them about Ayers as reported on CNN.

The buzz on the Palin bump after the convention was that the national movement was primarily based on red states getting redder, not on any significant movement in the swing states. We might be witnessing a similar movement here, where Palin's debate performance and an aggressive message from the McCain campaign may have a polarizing effect. By solidifying support in traditional republican states, McCain would get movement in national polls but minimal change in state polls.

Hmm I think the race might be tightening again. Why I don't know, wonder if McCain got a good day of polling because of the stock market yesterday which makes no sense. But who knows.If Gallup tightens again then you know something is afoot. This does make me nervous though. We Dems could still blow this thing. Although if Obama has a good performance in the debate tonight, maybe he will bounce back up.

boomshak

Here is a link for you.WEEP

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/07/politics/main4505539.shtml

Yep, it's official, everybody thinks McCain will win. That explains why Intrade shows Obama with a nice cushy 40.4% lead in probability of winning the election.

@Boom

Why don't you talk about the CNN poll with Obama at 53-45?

Why don't you talk about the 175,000 absentee ballots requested in Ohio? You made the claim in another thread that Obama has no ground game.

http://www.10tv.com/live/content/local/stories/2008/10/07/vote.html?sid=102

Why don't you talk about John McCain's shady dealings with Keating 5, U.S. Council for World Freedom, and Pastors Hagee, Parsley, Falwell and Robertson?

You can point to all of Obama's guilt by associations but you can't ignore McCain's. You're right the American people don't like being lied to which is why Obama has a statistically significant lead.

So does that mean McCain "pals around with nazis?" By Palin logic, yes. Will Obama or Biden say something so repugnant? No.

The Hotline margin plummets by four while Rasmussen and Battleground stay constant.

WTF?

@BOOMSHAK

Actually I agree with Boomshak that Obama's experience level is low. I also think McCain's is too. McCain has never really led a thing, and his entire career has been on the public dole, like Obama. McCain has been a loner, and he clearly doesn't like to "administer" things. He's impulsive and often irresponsible. Obama has administered an enormously successful campaign, and he's run community organizations successfully, and he's never been seen as pie-in-the-sky in his short legislative career. But in an important way, I have to agree that the candidate-centered system of celebrity politics has made being an experienced official a huge disadvantage. That's not McCain's or Obama's fault. I think from a purely bureaucratic standpoint, I would easily select Obama as the more talented "organizational" person, and he seems, thus far, to show more level-headedness. But there is no denying that Obama's promise rests in some important way on a faith based on some obvious talent. As someone who worked for Goldwater -- in Chicago of all places -- and having voted for republicans from time-to-time, and as a fiscal conservative, I can say with total sincerity (although I could be wrong) that I feel strongly that Obama and the Democrats for this time in history will be the better stewards of our economy. The GOP has totally jettisoned fiscal sense, and while I am not happy with all liberal programs, continuing with these foolish, unwanted tax cuts for the wealthy is dumb and we have to "socialize" the costs of our health care system and go the way of every other nation on the planet with whom we compete (I favor, by the way, cutting capital gains, with the exception of gains on unimproved property).

@ boomshak:

Ayers is just one more untrue smear from Sarah Failin' and John McCan't. Nothing else.
see the truth here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/us/politics/04ayers.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=Ayers&st=cse

while I would be more worried about McCain being on the panel of a radical group:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_iran_contra;_ylt=Ai3M8HMMRfXJ6.qa7esyxWOyFz4D

Hmm. Maybe Obama won’t win in a landslide.

That will mean he has a mandate from people to NOT govern like he ran, as a MODERATE. If he governs like a MODERATE, there will be hell to pay. Just ask GW Bush a la 2000.

[sarcasm flag - you never know...]

douglasfactors

The Hotline Poll changed party ID overnight by 3%. It was 5% which was to low and now it is a joke. If Obama is in the lead with a 2% party ID advantage this race is a blowout!

boomshak

Obama's skills are organizational and bringing the best guys in, and making a judgement call.

Isn't that the story of his political carerr and this campaign.

Clinton's stump speech on the economy went something like that. "He called his experts in then he called my experts in, then he considers, weighs up and makes a decision."

That is how good CEOs work

McCain Linked To Private Iran-Contra Group. wow.

Why are we hearing more about the fact that McCain belonged to a group of Nazi collaborators? Weren't these guys involved in the Iran-Contra affair when McCain was a member?

I'm suspicious why CBS and Hotline decided to dramatically lower their party ID advantages. Any thoughts? STATE REGISTRATION #'s are in the high single digits, even above 10% in some cases + DEM. So what gives?

This poll is probably flawed, but people who are saying that Obama has this sewed up are kidding themselves. The way the electoral votes fall, Obama has to have a pretty big national-popular-vote advantage to turn the appropriate states.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I think a three point popular vote advantage will be just enough for Obama to eek out a win, and anything less than that is probably McCain land, and if you don't think the polls can turn 5 points in a month or so think again.

Obama has a really solid base of states, I don't see michigan, PA, Iowa or minnesota going to McCain, but I doubt he will win VA or OH. Not impossible, but just doesn't seem likely, even if he's up in the polls right now. Forget about NC. Basically he has to win Colorado and New Hampshire, and I don't think that either one is a done deal. I'd rather be Obama than McCain (who has to successfully defend ALL of these states) but I'm feeling way less than secure that the key states will fall our way.

Just a little reality check.

I think the networks are trying to develop a narrative suggesting that the race is closer than it is. They are definitely changing the parameters within their polling methodology to favor McCain.

Boomshak, CNN's not reporting he lied, they reporting that noted liar John McCain is now accusing Obama of lying...

For some time I have questioned the LV models that are being used. I believe that one of two things are happening:
1. Both gallup and Rasmussen are purposely reporting large Obama leads in the hope of luring Obama supporters into a false sense of security. Although this theory is highly conspiratorial, I don't put anything past McCain supporters. After all they did send out 1 million absentee ballots in Ohio to mislead obama supporters into absentee voting mistakes.I think they have concluded that they can't win in Ohio if the turnout of AA's is super high.
2. My more plausible assessment is that Rasmussen finally changed is LV screen to maintain a larger % of AA's and students because I think they have come to believe they will actually show up. This was my gripe with Rasmussen before and I think he finally decided that an AA participation rate at least as high as Whites was appropriate. In all likelihood it will be higher.

In McCain's wet dream Palin-Porn scenario, he still comes 2 points short... Going to be a long Nov 4th.

All I can say is strange race. Conflicting polls, just weird.

maddiekat, that's an excellent point. All the prognosticators have E.D. going with Dem affiliation by at LEAST 6%, and that's with very conservative estimates of new voter turnout. This poll would be much more concerning if it was in line with the typical party ID that all the other polls have shown. Also, there's no way in hell I buy a "tie" on who better handles the economy. That's a friggin joke. There are hardly any polls where you can find McCain within 20 over the last few weeks on that issue. If you're trying to tell me this poll represents some sort of "Ayers effect," then why the economy #s? It's horsecrap. As for the McCain/Iran-contra thing. That will garner even less voter interest than the Ayers stuff. G.H.W. Bush's fingerprints were all over than and no one cared. They won't care that McCain's are either.

Oh yeah, florida- I see it as more in the Colorado category than the OH category, but no shoo-in by any means.

@boomshak

I'll tell you why Obama is better on the economy it is his advisors. Who are John McCain's advisors? Oh yeah Phil Gramm, the economic terrorist that us the deregulation legislation for the two largest corporate busts in history (Enron, Lehman Brothers)

Do you really want to talk about your guy and the economy?

I'll go with Rasmussen:) Hotline samples 900 people, Rasmussen 3000. In addition, 2% Dem party advantage is just about irresponsible. Every single state is reporting a huge surge in DEM registration and the #'s are in the high single digits, not 2.

Forget even the party affiliation thing. Show me one other poll, ANY other poll in the past month that has McCain within 10 points on who would better handle the economy. It's lunacy.

Boris,

Obama and dems-for this time in history- better stewards of our economy?

Not without a totally clean slate. You dems have GOT to get rid of Frank, Dodd, Pelosi, and Reid before you'll see anything close to good stewardship. If these are the kind of rocket scientists you want on your side, God help us all. Obama will do NOTHING to oppose these four.

Noah J. is presumably the return of the similarly named troll who spouted racist nonsense recently, yes?

They originally started with an 8 point pro Dem weighting in early sept. They moved in down in mid-Sept. They move it down now, when all indications are that it should be betwee 6-10% Dem rating.

I hate to sound like boom, but this is a real fail.

I think what has happened here is that Hotline has caught a sudden shift from Independents to Republican affiliation.

And yet you completely ignored this possible interpretation when other polls were showing high Dem IDs that you didn't like. Again, we all need to make a distinction between weighting poll results by party ID and simply reporting the stated party ID of the sample. The former will tend to smooth out a tracking poll; the latter won't, and if the sample changes from day to day, so will the top line results.

2. What major enterprise (other than an election) has he ever managed and how did it turn out?

Like it or not, modern US political campaigns are major enterprises, and running them effectively is the principal way in which the US electorate judges the competency of candidates for national office.

Trosen,

The 30%+ Obama supporters that pay no taxes at all, would certainly say Obama would do a better job on the economy. Their government handouts will increase under Obama, so they'll be happy. It's the rest of us taxpayers that will suffer, and you know it.

boomshak

I think that Intrade agrees with me (Obama + 40). After McSlime makes a fool of himself tonight this race is over. Magoo is a fool and I really do not think that the average American wants to see a candidate and his running mate for all practical purposes suggest violence against Obama. There performances on the National stage border on criminal, and I can not believe that it would inspire any rational person to vote for McCain. The Republicans do believe that the average American is stupid, but in the end this is going to bite them in the a#s.

EARLY VOTING IN OHIO CASTS DOUBT ON OBAMA'S "AMAZING GROUND GAME"...

"A weeklong period in which Ohioans could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot ended Monday with turnout that didn't quite match the expectations of election officials — or the campaign predictions that preceded it.

As of Monday evening with polling sites still open, projections were that about 4,000 to 5,000 voters in the state's four largest counties would have taken advantage of the policy, which survived multiple court challenges.

Elections officials were surprised by the low turnout.

"With all the hoopla we were anticipating a whole lot more," said Steve Harsman, the elections director in Montgomery County, home to Dayton.

Overall, between 20,000 and 25,000 people were expected to have voted early in person in the four counties, beginning Sept. 30. The four counties include the state's largest urban areas — Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Dayton — and the focal points of campaign get-out-the-vote efforts.

About 1,300 people had taken advantage of the opportunity in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and is the state's most populous.

The early voting window was expected to benefit Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, as his campaign and supportive advocacy groups drove members of typically Democratic constituencies — the homeless, college students and poor people — to the polls."

It's a monumental fail. Not to mention, even if R turnout exceeds all of Pat Buchanan's wildest wet dreams of Sarah Palin wearing nothing but a hockey mask, and somehow McCain brings the #s on the economy to a draw, he STILL loses by 2. Nightmare..

OBAMA'S BIG PROBLEM WITH TOUTING HSI "TURNOUT MACHINE":

Many Democrat Voters may feel that the polls will be so crowded due to the big "turnout machine" of Obama that their vote really isn;t that important.

They may also feel that Obama can run away with it without them.

Overconfidence never works out well.

These aren't presidential race polls--they are party affiliation polls. With 90%+ party loyalty on either side, any reweighting just winds up changing the final numbers arbitrarily.

Boomshak is very right--there is some wierd stuff going on.

Early voting everywhere is almost always heavily dominated by older, wealthier, more conservative voters. The question is how much of the Obama campaign is connected to maxing out the early voting. Of course, Obama's ground game could fail, but I think it is largely invested in turning out voters on election day.

@boom
"Overconfidence never works out well"

So does underconfidence. I think both blocks will be equally motivated (or un-motovated). Economics are tilting it clearly. And all McCain has is a bunch of left-over re-heated issues that he took out of the freezer. Very few will eat them and those are already McCain accolytes already. Look at the indies, and they are steadily coming to the light.

It's very sad that young college-age voters are so easily persuaded by packaging. Their liberal college professors-who never worked for a living-fill their minds full of Ayers-type America hate and embarass students that don't agree with them. They force them to conform to group-think and lambaste the students that have minds of their own. It's been going on for four decades now, but by their 30's most people wake up to the truth. It's amazing what real work does for people's minds.

Look, I said yesterday that this race will tighten up. There are just too many undecideds and people who will change their minds before election day.

On the contrary, people do care about Ayers, etc...b/c they really don't know Obama. Don't underestimate the effect. This is not the Democratic Primary where people will sort of look the other way.

One other thing...Obama said in his speech on Sunday, that "McCain was running out of time". I cringed when he said that. The last thing Obama wants to sound like, is overconfident.

Remember the first rule of poll analysis, folks. All the polls I like are right, all the polls I find disappointing use wildly bad methodology.

Using that criteria, this poll seems unusually insightful. lol.

Is the ridiculous party ID margin the result of reweighting or a failure to weight?

Don't be suprised about this poll.
their Party ID weighing is outlier.

Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

you can check the link.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100708.htm

Hey, folks, Hotline indicates that people who responded by saying the economy was the most important issue favored Obama by 9% over McCain. Clearly their poll underrepresents the % of folks who say the economy is most important. Whether their polling method (e.g., partisan weight) under-estimates the Democratic vote remains to be seen, but the fact that they clearly have a smaller % of people worried about the economy than other polls do suggests their approach sucks.

Next round of Palin Polls.How many wing nuts are there?

Fav 25% Neg 75%
Very Fav 25% Very Neg 75%

Good luck!

@never
It's very sad that young college-age voters are so easily persuaded by packaging. Their liberal college professors-who never worked for a living-fill their minds full of Ayers-type America hate and embarass students that don't agree with them. They force them to conform to group-think and lambaste the students that have minds of their own. It's been going on for four decades now, but by their 30's most people wake up to the truth. It's amazing what real work does for people's minds.

This is exactely the description of Liberty university of Jerry Falwell, where religious dogma indoctrination is rampant.

The brightest minds and the reason of our success came out of our universities, as such I applaud the WORK of the professors. They actually WORK for a living, shaping our leaders of tomorrow!

richardkreed:
"Remember the first rule of poll analysis, folks. All the polls I like are right, all the polls I find disappointing use wildly bad methodology.

Using that criteria, this poll seems unusually insightful. lol."

I think that's kind of a given Rich. But when the cross-tabs are wildly off in terms of every other poll over the last few weeks, it raises an eyebrow. Show me a few more polls where Party ID is near equal, and the candidates are polling near-equal on the economy, then I'll say there's something to the perceived "tightening" in the polls that the McCain supporters here are hyperventilating over.

When I was a lot younger we ony had the Gallup poll and no one questioned it...no one analysed and everyone beleived it. The ability to put "faith" into something you don't understand is comforting.
Now with vastly MORE polls and in depth analysis I am not convinced that we know much more, only that we found out what we don't know and it seems like a lot!

I think a reasonable person can conclude that if ALL the polls show Obama ahead by some margin that he is in the lead. Much more than that is a question of who ya beleive.

Democrats =
people that work for or live directly or indirectly off the government for the benefit of themselves.

Republicans=
people that work for non-government entities and gladly take care of themselves and others.

Obama supporters should be happy about this poll. It should help to make sure nobody writes McCain off or gets complacent. I think a few of the state polls are a bit bloated right now, but I could be wrong.

I called this one Boom's poll assoon as I saw it.

are they not trying to move the ID weighting and demogrphics to 2004 national exit numbers?

You know the whole poll is distorted this is a 3 day tracker. According to Boomshak McCain had to have led with the poll of 300 that was taken yesterday.

These guys got off to a good start, but why change their ID which was essentially very similar to Rasmussen's?

I suppose MSM may pick up on it now.

NeverMetAnHonestLib why does Palin's husband HATE America? Why would he want to leave the United States? Why did Palin support this organization as well?

My tenant, who I take as a little bit paranoid (or maybe right) beleives that the polls always are manipulated to keep a race moving in and out and in the news....the tabs seem to suggest that.

@boomshat

"Obama supporters, please explain to me why Americans should accept Obama as an EXPERT on the economy?"

Phil ****ing Gramm.

my fellow libs:
dont get all hot and bothered the moment u see a poll with low showing for our man.
by chance and chance alone, this should happen a certain small percentage of the time.
treat this as the outlier that it is, and look at the larger trend, the bigger picture...

I don't think Obama is an expert on the economy....he is far more intelligent and able to understand what his advisors (like Robert Reich) tell him than MCain or his brain dead mate.

@NeverMetAnHonestLib

I agree with you about the libs, but I cannot in good conscience put the Palins so close to the presidency. They are traitors to America and support a party whose motto is "Alaska First" and which advocates secession. That is pure treason and I cannot understand why the MSM is not exposing these traitors. I can only imagine it's because they don't care if Alaska secedes and takes its oil and natural gas with it. That would probably benefit their radical environmental agenda.

laguna:

robert reich??? LOL! He would be better off asking Bill for advice on cigars.

@Nevermet:

You never answer what is below. Could you?

---

@NeverMetAnHonestLib:

"Non-taxpers should not be allowed to vote. That would absolutely decimate Obama's campaign. More than 30% of Obama supporters pay NO taxes and want the rest of us to support them. BYW, they make up a HUGE portion of those getting polled.

America was built on the idea that people should not have taxation WITHOUT representation. People that aren't taxed DESERVE NO REPRESENTATION, and NO VOTE."

1. Logical error:

"No taxation without representation" means "If you pay taxes, you have to get representation"; it does not mean "If you have representation you have to pay taxes". Paying taxes is a sufficient condition for representation, but not a necessary one. You are committing a pretty basic fallacy here.

2. Factual error:

If you buy a gallon of milk, or a loaf of bread, you are paying taxes. It could well be that more than 30% of Obama's voters are poor, but they still buy milk and bread, and thus they pay taxes.

So nevermet, you are a disaster in both fronts. Pobre animalito de Dios!

Posted on October 3, 2008 3:05 PM

The Huntsman:

I agree that Obama could be the messiah, but I couldn't in good conscience vote for someone that spent years in Iran studying the

@ Boris

While I see myself more as a fiscal moderate than a fiscal conservative, I fully agree with you. By the way, you posting is a model of constructive, well-argued post.
Cheers!

"Boris_Dieter:
@BOOMSHAK

Actually I agree with Boomshak that Obama's experience level is low. I also think McCain's is too. McCain has never really led a thing, and his entire career has been on the public dole, like Obama. McCain has been a loner, and he clearly doesn't like to "administer" things. He's impulsive and often irresponsible. Obama has administered an enormously successful campaign, and he's run community organizations successfully, and he's never been seen as pie-in-the-sky in his short legislative career. But in an important way, I have to agree that the candidate-centered system of celebrity politics has made being an experienced official a huge disadvantage. That's not McCain's or Obama's fault. I think from a purely bureaucratic standpoint, I would easily select Obama as the more talented "organizational" person, and he seems, thus far, to show more level-headedness. But there is no denying that Obama's promise rests in some important way on a faith based on some obvious talent. As someone who worked for Goldwater -- in Chicago of all places -- and having voted for republicans from time-to-time, and as a fiscal conservative, I can say with total sincerity (although I could be wrong) that I feel strongly that Obama and the Democrats for this time in history will be the better stewards of our economy. The GOP has totally jettisoned fiscal sense, and while I am not happy with all liberal programs, continuing with these foolish, unwanted tax cuts for the wealthy is dumb and we have to "socialize" the costs of our health care system and go the way of every other nation on the planet with whom we compete (I favor, by the way, cutting capital gains, with the exception of gains on unimproved property)."

@NeverMetanHonestLib:

Republican states on average receive far more government money than they pay in taxes. The states that contribute the most and receive the least are DC, NJ, NV, CT, NH, MN, IL, DE, CA, and NY.

Suggests maybe blue states are just fed up carrying everybody else. Seems like a true conservative would support their quest for self-reliance.

Here is the link on my data:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-09-2007/0004678869&EDATE=

@NeverMetAnHonestLib:

I don't care about Obama and I especially don't care about McCain. He has been a sellout to the left for his whole career and only tells us honest conservatives what we want to hear now that he needs us to get elected. I'm voting for Bob Barr. Sure, that probably will help Obama, but I know his presidency will fail anyway and that will just help us rebuild the Republican party the way it SHOULD be, from the ground up again.

I see a lot of Mccain supporters who are angry at "libs" and Obama supporters angry at rightwing nuts. I am in the latter group and wonder what the McCain supporters find so compellng in the record of the past 8 years that they want another dose????

The Huntsman:

I agree that Obama could be the messiah, but I couldn't in good conscience vote for someone that spent years in Iran studying the... Qu'ran, and communist manifesto before coming to the states to study black liberation theology and organizing a govenrnment overthrow. :)

LATIMES ACCUSES BIDEN OF A "string of falsehoods and gasbaggeries" FOR HIS DEBATE PERFORMANCE:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-goldberg7-2008oct07,0,6074234.column

"But what about Biden? Overwhelmingly, the professional political class proclaimed that he blew her away on "specifics" and "knowledge" and "seriousness." The New York Times said Biden avoided making any gaffes, "while showing a clear grasp of the big picture and the details." The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib proclaimed on ABC's "This Week" that Biden avoided any "verbal excesses or rhetorical flourishes."

The Associated Press called Biden the "master senator ... rattling off foreign policy details with ease."

And that's true in a sense. Biden was at ease; he easily rattled off a string of falsehoods and gasbaggeries.

According to the master senator, the U.S. and France "kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon." Afterward, according to Biden, "I said and Barack said, 'Move NATO forces in there. Fill the vacuum, because if you don't know -- if you don't, Hezbollah will control it.' " Perhaps Biden meant to say the U.S. and France kicked Syria out of Lebanon. But even this is woefully glib. Syria never fully abandoned Lebanon. And there was no "vacuum" for Hezbollah to fill. The terrorist group was already firmly in control of southern Lebanon and part of the government. No one remembers Biden and Obama fighting for the stupidly impossible NATO move either.

Biden insisted it's "just simply not true" that Obama has said he'd "sit down with [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad," even though in the primaries Biden criticized Obama for exactly that.

Biden bragged about how he and Obama have focused on Pakistan, insisting that "Pakistan's weapons can already hit Israel and the Mediterranean." Um, no. Their missiles don't get halfway there.

The constitutional law professor scornfully mocked Dick Cheney because the vice president "doesn't realize that Article I of the Constitution defines the role of the vice president. That's the executive branch." Wrong. Article I defines the Legislature, Article II the executive branch. Both define the role of the VP.

He flatly said that McCain voted with Obama on a tax hike. He didn't. He said McCain's healthcare plan amounted to a tax hike. It doesn't. Biden said we "must" drill for oil, but that ain't how he's voted. He said he's for clean coal, but just this month he passionately insisted to a voter that "we're not supporting clean coal" and vowed "no coal plants here in America." The scrapper from Scranton boasted about bonding with the common folks at a restaurant that's been closed for two decades."

QUESTION:
So what's the deal with all these left wing MSM outlets coming out with attacks on Obama/Biden? First CNN and now LAT.

Hell just froze over and is selling the extra ice.

GW/Battleground Tracking has Obama up 7 points today also so the trend seems to be maintainin. 2 or 3 outliner polls showing a supposedly closer race are of little consequence. An average of today's polls so far (GW/Battleground, Zogby, Rasmussen, Daily Kos, Hotline) has Obama up by 6 and the Gallup isn't even up yet.:)

In addition to the 4 national polls posted here so far today, 2 others have been released this morning: Battleground has Obama up 7, and ARG has Obama up 4.

In national polls released today, McCain has gone 0 for 6.

Always be concerned when liberal media APPEARS to attack their own. They're simply trying to lure a few unsuspecting into reading/watching so they can overwhelm them with liberal propaganda. It's simply "bait and switch."

Unfortunately, some will follow blindly and get hooked.

Never trust the MSM. Never. Never. Never.

NeverMeetAnHonestLib

How much does McCain pay you troll?

Question: What's with Boomshak citing op-ed columns by National Review editors published in the LA Times as being from the "left wing MSM"?

Though I do love that you didn't quote the part where Goldberg said Palin is "bad at being a dishonest politician."

maddie:

He earmarks a few dollars my way.

OK... NOT an outlier. I will keep repeating this until you guys quit mis-using the term.

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Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/4-6 by FD; surveyed 908 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

Actually, I mentioned this before: The INDEPENDENTS are underepresented if compared to Rasmussen "unaffiliated." So I would guess that many people tend to ID themselves with whom they are leaning toward. That in itself may skew the poltical ID depending on which time period the polls cover.

Rachael Maddow had a guest on last night saying how McCain is proposing to cut 1.2 trillion dollars from Medicare/Medicaid programs. That should go over well in Florida with the seniors.

Just because someone on ultra-lib MSNBC Maddow's show says it makes it true? Hardly. Similar to FALSE accusations Obama campaign made regarding McCain's social security position.

And I am guessing that her audience is not overwhelmingly senior citizens.

Palin bump, from the debate

@KipTin
Since you and I seem completely aligned on alternative Energy....why would support McCain whose record on doing anything is abysmal.

@KipTin

BTW, any chance you will be at the Solar Conference next week in SD?

MACK IS MAKING A QUIET COMEBACK. YOU GO BOY!

YA HE IS. GAllUP UP TO +9 FOR OBAMA. LEAD CONTINUES TO GROW.

@sotonight

McCain wants to get down to about a 10-15 point deficit so he can REALLY sneak up on Obama QUIETLY.

I try hard not to cherry pick my polls, but man, when a poll like this happens it's hard not to. Three tracking polls show a flat race or a one point move. One shows a sudden tightening.

Hotline (and to a lesser extent Zogby) are seeing something nobody else is seeing. Now, in a good, scientific field what we'd do is look at the data closer on everybody, try to figure out the possible causes for what Hotline is seeing, test theories and explanations, etc.

But since polling data is treated as some proprietary secret, we won't get that. Instead we'll get stupid political commentary trying to explain a result without evidence, because it's based on topline polling data and not real information.

Bleh.

@kiptin

Actually it wasn't Maddow who said it. It was Holtz-Eakin, McCain's econ advisor, who told the WSJ that they would cut 1.2 trillion in Medicare to pay for McCain's health care plan.

It's not that people think Obama is an expert on the economy, but they trust him and his economic team (similar ideas to Clinton's such as: we don't have a person to waste) more than they do McCain, who admits he doesn't know that much about economics despite all his experience, and his team, led by people like his good friend Mr. Deregulation/Whiners Phil Gramm, formerly expected to become Treasury Secretary if McCain won, and a very heavy concentration of lobbyists.

nevermetanhonestlib: if you don't let people vote if they don't pay income tax or directly pay property tax, I assure you they would have no moral obligation to obey YOUR law. Go back to the 18th century.

This is a very strange result. Since this is a daily tracking poll, for McCain to get within two points of Obama means that he actually polled AHEAD of Obama by like two points in yesterday's sample after days of being down by AT LEAST 4 or so points.

If their odd trend continues, McCain will move a point or so closer, possibly even tied, in tomorrows report. Odds are, however, it'll swing back to where Monday's sample should have been and show the same results but with both candidates increasing their support (guessing 47/45 Obama).