Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 46, McCain 46 (Pew-9/9-14)

Topics: PHome

Pew Research Center
9/9-14/08; 2,509 RV 2.5%, 2,307 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(release)

National
Registered Voters:
Obama 46, McCain 44
(August: Obama 46, McCain 43)

Likely Voters:
Obama 46, McCain 46

 

Comments
PHGrl:

Goodness.. do they have anything from say--- LAST YEAR?!

As Chuck Todd says-- 7 days is a LIFETIME in politics..

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

Best McCain can do is a tie after the convention media lovefest last week? Look out beeloooowww!!!

____________________

TheHustler:

We are back to where we were before the conventions. McCain's bounce has faded but so has Obama's so neither side should get too comfortable.

____________________

thoughtful:

Pews a good pollster and this is how it was. But since then:

My opinion is the election turned on the Lies and as soon as McCain said Fundamentally Sound Economy he lost his credibility.

Out of touch, no credibility and a Liar. He won't come back. He'll be down some more tomorrow by 1 or 2.

____________________

Rippleeffect:

Are you guys reading what's going on right now with the DOW?

McCain this morning said...
http://www.politicshome.com/mobile/blog.aspx?id=2938

" Today we need a plan that doesn't wait until the system fails. I am calling for the creation of the mortgage and financial institutions trust -- the MFI. The priorities of this trust will be to work with the private sector and regulators to identify institutions that are weak and take remedies to strengthen them before they become insolvent. For troubled institutions this will provide an orderly process through which to identify bad loans and eventually sell them."

What happens today? Gov't announces...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
"The report on CNBC said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering the formation of an entity like the Resolution Trust Corp. that was set up after the failure of savings and loan banks in the 1980s."

If there's an RTC-like entity, "it's going to take a lot of the bad debt off the balance sheets of these companies," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York. That would alleviate many of the pressures causing the credit crisis, he said, and open up the credit markets again. But Fullman noted, "the devil's in the details."

""Bear markets are very sensitive to news. And on a scale of 1 to 10, this one is a 13," he said.

In late afternoon trading, the Dow soared 411.66, or 3.88 percent, to 11,021.32. "

I'd like to ask Obama what his plan was to get things rolling again. He's yet to offer any ideas beyond just attacking McCain for being "out of touch"

____________________

marctx:

first the market recovers +400. then McCain takes the electoral map lead for the first time on Pollster.com!!!!!

____________________

mccainandpalinareliars:

Yeah, I don't know if mccain will even be ALIVE until 11/4. The guy has to be facing so much stress after lying like a dead mule the last few weeks. The press is finally calling him on it. Poor gramps.

____________________

StuffOfInterest:

Definitely old, but at least it adds more points to the national trend graph. That graph is really interesting now for how fast McCain goes up and down in the last couple of weeks.

____________________

Chip Green:

The internals are horrible. I am disappointed in Pew.

White Voters: 82% (77% in 2004)
Men: 50% (46% in 2004) More men than women!
65+: 23% (16% in 2004)

This poll is garbage. Obama improves his numbers with women (by 3%) and stays even with men but goes down overall from the previous month! Huh?

____________________

Chip Green:

Sorry Mccain actually went up +2 with women in this poll. Still, why does Pew figure more older white men will be voting this year than ever before?

____________________

KipTin:

McCain facing stress???? I think in relative terms that running for President is less stressful then say... almost 6 years as a POW.

____________________

serpounce:

@Chip Green

Apparently it's been a good month for the sex change industry!

____________________

thoughtful:

@Rippleeffect

Dead cats bounce!

____________________

KipTin:

I am listening to the Obama speech on CNN. Talk about lies. He directly stated that the failure AIG would have put many many Americans at risk (WRONGLY implying that the insurance component of AIG would have failed... which is NOT even close to the truth. AIG insurance was the solvent component and would have survived in tact.)

____________________

c y:

well the rcp avg is now obama +1.9%

the dow is +400pts today and it looks like the govt is adopting Mccains plan.

Its been a rough week for us Mccain supporters but I am feeling abit better.

Hopefully the economy will stabilize and start to receed as an issue abit.

i await the traking polls tomorrow.

____________________

player:

This poll is solid. It actually tracks McCain's forward progress and 5 point pickup over the past few months which is basically in line with his own party's conservatives coming on board. He needs to continue to move forward,and I suspect that he will. He needs to come out against the 'fairness doctrine'. This gives him the talk radio hosts and audience.

____________________

boomshak:

Race is a tie despite 24/7 BJ from the press for Obama and an endless coloscopy for McCain.

On to the debates.

____________________

JFactor:

This is "an old poll" because a lot of things have happened since 9/9-14. McCain was then still in a good shape, not that he's in a toilet now. Obama is again slighly in the lead but only slightly.

And remember, if Obama is slightly in the lead AND that McCain has solified his support in traditionally red states it means that the support for Obama is coming from swing states/slightly blue states. On the other hand, it could be that Obama's gaining a bit of ground in Georgia for example. Not enough to compete there but enough that the national polls are affected.
________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

KipTin:

Yes, that the Pollster map gives McCain the electoral vote lead is significant.

Starting to mirror the RCP electoral map (except for Montana and West Virginia which are toss-ups on Pollster).

____________________

zotz:

"Race is a tie despite 24/7 BJ from the press for Obama and an endless coloscopy for McCain."

I am surprised you are old enough to vote.
This humor is puerile.

____________________

marctx:

I wonder if McCain's gains in these northern most states are because Palin is from Alaska? I don't see any political significance. It must be cultural.

From Minnesota department of natural resources:
"The moose is Minnesota's largest wild animal, and Minnesota is one of the few states that have moose."

____________________

Tybo:

3 obama states go yellow.
wow!

____________________

KipTin:

My state has moose. Also do not forget about the "hockey moms" in these states. And we all have "northern accents" too. Sometime mistaken for Canadians.

____________________

boomshak:

Guys, face it, this one is gonna come down to the wire. Even Rasmussen is saying this is starting to look like 2004 all over again.

We'll ask President Kerry how that turned out :)

@zotz:

Peurile? Did you have to look that word up before you used it? Nevertheless, you didn't disagree with my statement, did you?

____________________

Tybo:

moose are nice.. kind of like Oil tanks with legs..

____________________

boomshak:

Is it just me or does it seem that as the national map trends Obama, the state maps trend McCain?

____________________

HaloFan:

What are the two most populated states in the usa?

____________________

HaloFan:

@boomshack
when do you think the repubs. should start attcking obama about rev. wright and (the lsit goes on)?

____________________

Tybo:

boomshak:
Is it just me or does it seem that as the national map trends Obama, the state maps trend McCain
....

It could just be a delay from the convention bounce.
Or it could be that McCain is actually up.

I'd expect a drop over the next 5-7 days since the media has been carrying Obama's water...
and then aswing back to McCain

____________________

boomshak:

CABLE RACE, WED, SEPT 17

FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,921,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,839,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,561,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,184,000
FOXNEWS HUME 2,108,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,854,000
CNN COOPER 1,719,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,716,000
CNN KING 1,646,000
MSNBC HARBALL 1,145,000

Do we need any more proof that America is center/right?

____________________

boomshak:

Tybo:

I think Palin took on myhtological proportions early as Republicans and Reagan Democrats felt their Savior had arrived as foretold by prophets of old.

Then due to unprecedented pounding by the MSM (most of which was based upon lies - admit it), Palin seemed to be mortal after all.

In general, we humans, don't like it when our gods turn out to be mortal and we punish them for disappointing us.

However, now Palin is working from reduced expectations. She is a fast study and will just get stronger. i expect her support to increase an solidify.

Obama, on the other hand, continues to be just a flashy talker in an empty suit. he is like a beautiful house with no foundation. It looks great until the first hurrican blows in and then we are left with just a pile of sticks.

We'll see, two point race by the end, center/right country chooses center/right ticket.

____________________

Evolve:

@boomshak

Those numbers are nice but they don't mean anything. You haven't included any facts that could be used to show that the country is center/right ... for example things that can skew your numbers, #of liberal shows compared to conservative, You didn't include all shows just the one that fit your argument. No daily show, no AC show, no Larry king etc. .... My gut fealing is that the country is center left and the only thing I have to support this is that all the polling houses give dems a 5-10% advantage in their data and that by all accounts the dem. new voters out pace rep. 5-1

____________________

Evolve:

@boomshack

sorry I stand corrected, I do see AC and King in your numbers. Thou that doesn't change the basics of my argument.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak the left doesn't watch fox news because we are in school, volunteering, attending music events, enjoying life not scared of everything and other people. If you'd like to see a difference between left and right go visit Portland, OR, then go visit Memphis, TN. Let me know which city you think is more livable. K?

____________________

boomshak:

@Evolve,

In the last 60 years, Democrat Candidates for President have gotten more than 50% of the vote 2 times. During that period Republican Candidates have gotten over 50% 7 times.

Democrats have not gotten over 50% at all in th last 30 years. During that same time, Republicans got over 50% 4 times.

Since 1948, Democrats Candidates for President have receiced on average 46.20% of the vote. Republicans have received 49.16%

Name one Democrat Congressman who took a Republican Seat in 2006 who ran on a liberal agenda?

CONCLUSION:
America is a CENTER/RIGHT country.

____________________

boomshak:

I'VE TAKEN OUT MY CRYSTAL BALL THIS MORNING AND HERE IS WHAT I AM SEEING:

Obama's recent surge can be attributed to 3 things:

1. The economic meltdown and the resulting "anybody but them" backlash towards Republicans.
2. The "defrothing" of the Palin Iconic Bubble.
3. Just some really awful ads run by McCain (Obama fumbled on his own 2 yard line and McCain threw an interception in the endzone).

WHAT I SEE GOING FORWARD:
1. The market is way oversold here and should rally quite strongly on effective and decisive actions taken by the Bush Administration and the Fed. The Dow could be 1500 off its recent lows by election day. You have heard of peaking too early? The economy tanked too early to benefit Obama in 2 months.
2. Gas prices will be down close to $3.00 a gallon by election day. People vote with their pocket books.
3. Sarah Palin will have become less "iconic" and more "substantive and reliable" by election day. She will have gone in people's minds from smoke to fire.
4. I think that John McCain may have learned his lesson on the idiotic ads, whereas (if the recent "McCain is a Bigot" ad) is any indication, Team Obama is taking the A-Train to Stupidville.
5. If this race looks really close coming down the stretch and the Left thinks it may lose, look for the MSM and Moonbat 527 groups to become increasingly shrill and extreme in their attacks on McCain/Palin. Obama must either disavow them and risk alienating the fringe portion of his base, or say nothing and sound less and less like a "post-partisan, new type of candidate".
6. With all the looneys in the world, there is a good chance someone will blow up somebody or some country will invade some other country and America's attention will refocus on security, massive winner for McCain.

CONCLUSION:
This will likely be a 1-2 point race and look more like 2004 than most people think. The economy will likely be surging, gas and food prices will be lower and people will feel better about their futures.

If the economy is in recovery, Obama loses the "we're not them" advantage and if there is international unrest, McCain increases that advantage.

As we look back on Nov 5th, the talking heads will probably surmise that Obama surged too soon and that the recovering economy/international unrest saved McCain's bacon.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Balls that bounce come back to the ground.

There is not much of an Obama surge (yet), more the flattening out of the McCain bounce.

So don't panic, much would appear to depend on the debates.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful,

I think you would agree with me that nobody is gonna run away with this thing. Only one poll on one day put Obama over 50% at the height of his post-convention surge.

To win this thing (3rd party candidates likely will not factor at all), Obama will need to do something Democrats have only done twice in 60 years and not at all in the last 30 years - get more than 50% of the popular vote.

Right now, there is a still a lot of "benefit-of-the-doubt" built into Obama's support as, you will have to admit, that support is based largely upon his promises for the future as opposed to his deeds of the past.

As a matter of fact, to believe Obama will actually govern as he is now campaigning (a moderate on taxes, defense and government spending), we have to copletely discount everything we know of him from his last 10 years in office.

Not only is Obama saying to the electorate, "Believe I can do things I've never done", he is saying "Believe I won't do the things I have done".

As they say, "past is prologue". Prior behavior predicts future actions. That's why we have things like credit scores.

It is almost as if Obama expects someone to sprinkle "change dust" on him on Inauguration Day and turn him into a true "Agent of Change" backed up by actions and not just talk.

If being an "Agent of Change" were declared illegal and Obama was arrested, would there be enough evidence from his last 10 years in office to convict him?

Obama preaches "Change We Can Believe In", because it takes a big dose of faith to believe that Obama can actually CHANGE anything as opposed to just pontificating about it. There are "talkers" and there are "doers". If the last 10 years provides any prism into the future, Obama is the former.

Actually, there is one clear-cut example of change that Obama has brought about in the last 10 years. He has CHANGED pretty much every position he ran on in the Primaries. That is REAL CHANGE I can see with my own eyes.

CONCLUSION:
All other things be equal, the conservative tide always rises the last week before the election as people choose substance over style, especially during troubling times as these are.

Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak it's time for reality to set in. I'm worried about your health!

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR