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US: Obama 47, McCain 42 (Economist-9/27-29)

Topics: PHome

Economist /
YouGov-Polimetrix
9/27-29/08; 1,000 Adults, 4%
Mode: Internet Panel

National
Obama 47, McCain 42

 

Comments
kerrchdavis:

Right on track to be a tie race by Sunday...oh...wait..

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PortlandRocks:

Yawn. OMG you guys. Guess who is voting Obama? Just released today... I can't believe he's sharing this with anyone.

http://www.620kpoj.com/pages/you_gotta_see_this.html

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boomshak:

@kerrdufus,

You are aware that Obama +2 by Sunday is a tie, right?

It all comes down to tonight and Sarah Palin. If she blows it and she might, you can rest assured Obama will take the win.

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kerrchdavis:

Or, as boomshak and kiptin would say, 1% above the margin of error and thus 1% above a statistical tie and thus 1% above a tie thus basically a tied race.

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PortlandRocks:

Yah Obama will lose 5 points in Rasmussen if Palin does well. LOL I am done responding to WINDBAGBOOMSHAK.

Here is something funny:

http://www.620kpoj.com/cc-common/gallery/display.html?album_id=136213

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

You liberals are so ignorant. That little bit of biased humor from Homer Simpson is just going to piss off the Republican Base. You get that don't you?

This is why football players don't make derogatory comments about the other team before the big game.

Lol, your arrogance will be the end of you yet.

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PortlandRocks:

Do you guys know that a statistical tie is +2? I didn't know that since +2 could really be + 4. Ya see:) Per the polls their margina ALWAYS say + and -, not just -. Awww only looking at the facts YOU want to consider ROFL.

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

He could easily lose 3 in Gallup by then. Rasmussen is slower to change direction than Gallup.

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sunnymi:


Boomshak, no matter how many times you say it tonight's debate will not, I repeat will not, have a determinant effect on this election.
If she does well the race might get closer but this debate alone will not flip the race.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

Actually, an Obama 2% lead would be a STATISTICAL tie within the margin of error. 14 national polls showing Obama with a 2% lead is a 2% lead. Right now, every national poll shows Obama with a 5%-11% lead.

But thats ok, keep spewing the BS.

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boomshak:

Well, apparently the stock market isn't convinced the House will pass the pork-laden Senate Bill.

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PortlandRocks:

kerrchdavis I no longer respond to WINDBAGBOOMSHACK. Could you explain to him that pissing off people already voting for FAILURE doesn't really matter to me? Thanks:)

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

AHH! yes, the fine print. So when you said the race would be TIED this weekend, you meant it would be STATISTICALLY tied (within MOE) in ONE poll (gallup?)?

AHh, that makes sense. So, if this Sunday we have 11 polls with Obama +8 the gallup poll with Obama +3, I guess you'll be right: Its a tied race.

Idiot.

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Flashlight:

I still cannot believe McCain pulled out of Michigan, when he's only down by an average of 5?

Why not wait until after the debate?

His internal polls must be painting a very dark picture indeed.

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boomshak:

@kerrchdumbass:

It will be amusing to see how the MSM suddenly starts to report a massive economic turnaround a day after Obama wins.

McCain has run a dogsh*t campaign so far and he is up against it here. But tonight is huge. We'll see.

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PortlandRocks:

Obama will lose -5 in Rasmussen and -3 in Gallop and -7 in CBS and and and and Why? Because Palin will prove to the United States that she is the 1st VP in history to move polls and elect the next president. I can't wait to see it! TIE BY SUNDAY! ROFL

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Robi:

boomboom:

the pork part was to appease the house reps. Plus, the market also responds to other news.

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faithhopelove:

McCain is now 0 for 7 in today's national polls; in yesterday's national polls he went 0 for 12.

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sunnymi:


Boomshak, did you not see this analysis this morning showing Obama could win the election even if he is leading by 1-point come election day.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/01/politics/main4492711.shtml

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boomshak:

@kerrchdinglebrain:

Yes, I have said "statistically tied" many many many times. Which makes sense because "statitically tied" when it comes to polling is "tied" by definition.

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PortlandRocks:

I am more excited about the upcoming PRESIDENTIAL debate Tuesday.

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miatch:

Boom,

didn't you say the other day the republicans figured out a way to save the economy?

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nick-socal:

@boomshak: "Well, apparently the stock market isn't convinced the House will pass the pork-laden Senate Bill."

I hope to hell it doesn't pass the House. The failure of this bill is not what's having a negative impact on people's retirements. What's having the negative impact is that our economy is in shambles. Evidenced by the latest numbers out today. Tomorrow comes the jobs report... it'll be ugly.

No, the House needs to defeat this bill as well and start from scratch on a meaningful top-up solution to this problem. Let's drop the 'crisis' posturing and get something real done.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

keep telling yourself that tonight is huge buddy. A woman trying to convince America that shes not as dumb as she sounds is going to decide who becomes President.

btw, I like how a Homer skit is going to sway this election.

Did it ever occur to you that if your candidate is running a dog**** campaign, he might not be the best person to run the country?

fail you pathetic troll.

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DecaturMark:

@boom

Gallop changed faster because it's party ID changed. Compare apples to apples. Ras tries to maintain a consistant Party ID ratio. It changes slower because there is virtually no change form one day to the next. And while I have your attention, many times a tracking poll changes "significantly" because a big day may drop off. It does not neccessarily mean that one side had a good night. It is most likely a combination of the two: a decent night was dropped and a decent night came on board. Hence a tracking poll.

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PortlandRocks:

I'm confused what does +/- mean when pollsters give a margin of error. OH! So the PLUS sign (+) means that the 2% lead could also be 4?
I love math!

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douglasfactors:
Yes, I have said "statistically tied" many many many times. Which makes sense because "statitically tied" when it comes to polling is "tied" by definition.
Proving once again that boomshak is utterly innumerate.
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kerrchdavis:

@portland

well, logic isn't one of boomshanks strong suits.

@boom

So tell us Boom. If 50 national polls have Obama at +4 and the MOE is 4 for all, is the race tied?

Please show us all your awesome reasoning skills.

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PortlandRocks:

nick-socal good point. It should FAIL so we can work a BOTTOM up approach. Hillary was RIGHT about the foreclosure stop so banks can work out mortgages in jeapardy. This would make sense. Of course, who wants to make sense in Washington.

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PortlandRocks:

kerrchdavis lets get married. We both share San Francisco values:)

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Flashlight:

Today's Republican talking point: Sarah Palin can save the ticket with an impressive performance tonight (i.e. she doesn't make huge mistakes.)

So regardless of how she does tonight, they'll be hyping up a media story for the next two days about how her debate performance is turning the whole thing around.

But this is symptomatic of everything that's been wrong with the McCain campaign. Jump from one big attention grabbing stunt to the next and then try and spin it out like one isolated story can win them the election.

Well, guess what? The American people are tired of the side show circus freaks. They're flocking to Obama by the million because he's remained calm, reasonable, sensible and smart throughout the whole campaign. No gimmicks. No stunts.

No drama: vote Obama.

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Tyler:

Boomshak, you still haven't defined what you mean by "statistically tied". There's no generally agreed-upon meaning for that phrase. Do you mean that Obama's lead will be less than 1x the poll margin of error? less than 2x the MOE? half the MOE?

As I've posted several times, the MOE gives a range with a non-negligible probability of containing reality, but probability is continuous, and the distinction between negligible and non-negligible probability is arbitrary. A "statistical tie" in any reasonable sense is a poll result in which the probability that the result gives the wrong leader is non-negligible. But again the point at which you separate negligible from non-negligible is arbitrary - you need to choose such a dividing line.

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PortlandRocks:

OMG I just figured this thing out. McCain was 0 for 12 in yesterdays national polling. He's 0 for 7 today... that's +5. OBAMA's IN TROUBLE!

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jamesia:
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nick-socal:

@PortlandRocks, thanks buddy for pointing out my obvious typo. Duh! I did mean bottom-up. *feels silly*

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Tyler:

By the way, if anyone hasn't seen this yet, it's hilarious:

http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/01/debate_training_biden_learns_w_1_9211.php

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thoughtful:

@Everyone

There is still a lot of churn and maybe 10% undecided.

Obama support appears firmer than McCain support.

Liklihood is far more on a landslide than a narrow McCain/Palin win.

I believe that Obama has largely overcome the Race issue, I don't think McCain has overcome the age issue.

Palin's performance is vital tonight, not enough to make any real impact in the polls only the top of the ticket can do that.

If McCain doesn't come well on top in the next debate on Tuesday by this time next week - +12% average instead of +7.25% in the the 4 trackers (5 with GWU recaliburated).

Let's do an re-evaluation tomorrow afternoon.

@Boomshak

No Chance. Never happy morning again for John McCain

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PortlandRocks:

ROFL

Lieberman: Palin should avoid 'IQ test'
By ANDY BARR | 10/2/08 3:44 PM EDT Text Size:



Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman thinks that in order for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to beat her Democratic rival, Sen. Joe Biden, in tonight’s debate, she needs to keep it from turning into an “IQ test.”

“What she needs to do tonight is get this public consideration of her back to who she is and her strong points and, frankly, get it away from being a, kind of, IQ test — she's plenty smart — getting it away from being a, sort of, final college exam,” Lieberman said on MSNBC

Lieberman added though that despite Palin not knowing “every detail,” he expects that voters will respond well to the Alaska governor.

“Whether she can answer every detailed question, I don't think that ultimately matters to the American people,” the Connecticut senator added. “She doesn't know every detail, all the questions senators deal with, but, frankly, that's her strength.”

“I think the point is, who is she as a person? I think that's what people are ultimately looking for,” Lieberman said.

The McCain surrogate predicted that voters will see “a typical middle-class American who got angry at her government and decided to get involved.”

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boomshak:

Loose Lips Strike Again
Jennifer Rubin - 10.02.2008 - 3:24 PM
Yesterday Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had this to say: “One of the individuals in the caucus today talked about a major insurance company — a major insurance company — one with a name that everyone knows that’s on the verge of going bankrupt. That’s what this is all about.” Well, lo and behold–various insurance companies’ stock has been crashing today.

Now Reid is trying to undo the damage. USA Today has this report:

Today, however, Reid’s office sought to clarify the comment. His spokesman, Jim Manley, said Reid “is not personally aware” of any particular company being in trouble and has “no special knowledge” on the topic. Reid, the spokesman said, meant to refer in general terms about the financial sector and “regrets any confusion his comments may have caused.”

You may recall Sen. Chuck Schumer’s remarks about IndyMac sent that institution over the brink. This is all further evidence of an appalling lack of judgment and discretion by Senate Democrats.

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nick-socal:

Let's not talk about lack of judgement by either party. Iraq War anyone?

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kerrchdavis:

@boomskank

blah blah blah zZZzzzZZ

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:
ROFL

"Lieberman: Palin should avoid 'IQ test'"

I agree, incredibly poor choice of words, but as one reads the article, it is clear he didn't mean to say she is dumb, he meant to say she should stay away from "Who is the Treasurer of Kazakhistan?" type questions.

Anyway, the McCain Campaign seems intent of giving the Obama Campaign a plethora of soundbites that can be taken out of context.

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Robi:

BTW I will never believe that McCain will "veto every bill" with pork in it if he even can't cast a "no" vote for one.

Seriously, he doesn't think that his vote for one of the most publicized bills to date would be noticed? What was he thinking?

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak

I am in broad agreement with you, but would include virtually all Republicans in the same boat as these dense Democratic politicians.

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kerrchdavis:

@Robi

Good point, I actually hadn't thought of that. Thats just further proof that McCain will say anything to get elected.

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cinnamonape:
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Trosen:

hah.. classic Tyler.. love this quote:

"You look like a jack-o-lantern taking a difficult crap."

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thoughtful:

@cinnamonape

Thanks for reminding Boomshak -"Its a statistical tie"

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kerrchdavis:

@portland

well, if you're a really really good looking young girl, lets go! ;)

j/k!

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richieBr:

@boomshak

"Well, apparently the stock market isn't convinced the House will pass the pork-laden Senate Bill."


That's not what the market was reacting to. The market was reacting to a horrible jobs report, a horrible factory orders report and troublesome news from GE, IBM, Marriott, the automakers and others.

If the bailout deal goes south again in the House, expect a 1,000 point drop in the DOW starting the moment the 218th "NO" vote is recorded.

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Robi:

boomshak:

Do you agree with me that McCain is full of it when he says he will "veto every bill" with pork when he voted yes for this pork bill? It's ok to concede a point.

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boomshak:

@richieBr:

If you take out the fact that about 50,000 jobs were temporarily lost due to the hurricans, the job report, although not good, was far from horrible.

There can be no doubt that this ECONOMY GIVEN TO US BY THE DEMOCRAT CONGRESS is a mess.

ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN JANUARY OF 2006:
GDP: 4.2%
Unemployment: 4.7%
Gas Prices: $2.33/gallon

ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN OCTOBER OF 2008:
GDP: 2.8%
Unemployment: 6.1%
Gas Prices: $4.15/gallon

Gee, thanks Democrat Congress! Great job there! Way to lead!

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PortlandRocks:

kerrchdavis you're a straight male? DAMMIT!

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PortlandRocks:

I didn't realize the DEM congress of LESS THAN 2 years could do so much damage. Thats shocking after 10 of a Republican congress and 8 of their president. Wow those DEMS!

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kerrchdavis:

@Portland

roflmao! with a girlfriend of 2.5 years that thinks Palin is a joke even more than I do ;)

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PortlandRocks:

I won't tell her about your young girl comment:)

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PortlandRocks:

If our employers only knew how much time we spend here.

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boomshak:

WHAT DID THE DEMS PROMISE US IN 2006?

1. Growing the GDP - FAIL!
2. More and better jobs - FAIL!
3. A common-sense approach to lowering gas prices - FAIL!

And what is Barack Obama promising us now?

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Tyler:

@PortlandRocks

You have to remember republican logic:

- If things are doing well under Republican control, they get the credit
- If things are doing well under Democratic control, it's a delayed effect of the most recent Republican administration/congress.

- If things are doing poorly under Republican control, it's a delayed effect of the most recent Democratic administration/congress
- If things are doing poorly under Democratic control, it's their fault

Under these rules, it's simple to see why everything good in the 90's was due to Reagan, everything bad from 2000 through 2006 was Clinton's fault, and everything bad from 2006 to the present is the Democratic congress' fault.

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nick-socal:

Hmm so as of today McCain has to basically run the table on CO, NV, VA, OH, FL, and NH. I guess he could afford to lose one of the smaller ones like NV or NH but that's it, he'd still have to win OH, FL, VA, CO, and either NV or NH. I guess that's why he pulled out of MI but man that's a tall order.

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

You promised us you would change the world if we gave you power. Instead you clearly f*cked it up. Now you say "It's not our fault!"

For Chrissakes man, you are IN F*CKING POWER! When the hell does it start becoming your fault?

When you took power from Republicans the economy was in great shape, now it sucks and you see NO correlation? What if it had gotten better instead of worse, would you now be claiming no credit.

Liberal fool.

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Tyler:

@boomshak

...and hmm, what was the reason we didn't get the reform voters asked for in 2006? Oh yeah, Republicans threatening to fillibuster everything and it's mother and the senate.

Which is why getting as close to 60 Democratic senators as possible is just as much a priority in this election as electing Obama.

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marctx:

This is what McCain said:
``And the first big-spending pork-barrel earmark bill that comes across my desk, I will veto it. I will make them famous, and you will know their names.''

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nick-socal:

@boomshak come on bro. Listen the Dems hold Congress but here's the thing, they don't hold a veto proof majority AND they don't even hold the filibuster proof majority. Do some research man, there's a grip of legislation that got killed in committee before it could go to the floor for a vote because the Republicans started to filibuster it. I grant that Harry Reid is a douche bag and should have let the Republicans filibuster on on and on looking like fools, but that's besides the point. The point is that contrary to what you believe, it's not reality.

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Tyler:

I'll note that I do concede that it is partially the congressional Democrats' fault that much of the time they don't have the balls to stand up to Republicans' bad ideas and fear public opinion too much, but it's not that they have bad ideas - they just need a clear majority (and remember a majority in the senate is effectively 60).

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boomshak:

@Tyler:

Please take this moment to list for me THE GOOD THINGS THAT HAPPENED DURING THE 2006-2008 DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS:

Oh that's right, we won the war in Iraq. We all know how you helped with THAT.

Would the Dems have won in 2006 if they had run on this:

"If you elect us, 2 years from now, we will be on the brink of another Great Depression. Our entire banking system will be in shambles. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers will be bankrupt. Unemployment will be over 6% and gas will cost over $4 a gallon."

How many seats do you think you would have won on THAT platform?

And yet, here we are.

But NONE of it is your fault? If NONE of what has happened in the last 2 years is your fault, WHY THE HELL ARE YOU IN POWER?

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Robi:

fillibuster is a word everyone should learn.

BOOMBOOM> ANSWER MY PREVIOUS QUESTION:

Is it hypocritical to vote for a bill with pork when your position is to "veto every bill" with pork?

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Tyler:

@marctx

It still doesn't make sense that he's voting for a bill that he claims he would veto if president. Why would the office he holds dictate his stance on whether or not a bill should pass?

I am a supporter of the bailout (even with the unfortunate pork), but the hipocrisy is that McCain says he opposes all pork, but what he really means is he opposes pork unless there's something else in the bill that he likes. He just doesn't say what he means because that's not as appealing to voters.

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boomshak:

@nick-socal:

Please list for me all of the Democrat Legislation which Republicans have blocked the last 2 years that would have solved our current problems?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

I can't wait for this.

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MB1122:

@Boom

You're not going to get any argument out of me that the Dems haven't pushed against the Repubs HARD enough since 2006 (hence the worsening stats you cite), but the downward spiral we have been in for over a year and a half is unequivocally the fault of the previous Republican Congress combined with a Republican president, just as the ****-can that the economy was in in 1992 was the result of 12 years of Reaganomics. Come on.

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PortlandRocks:

ROFL. Let me tell you what the DEMS have done Min. wage raised PASS. (1st in in HOW MANY years?) Ethics and earmark reform PASS. Barred pensions for corrupt congressment PASS. Honest leadership and open gov. act PASS. Tax relief for small businesses PASS. 21st century comptetitive act PASS. Legislation to combat price gouging PASS. Increased pay for troops PASS. Increased funding for vets by 6.7 BILLION PASS. Voted to increase funding by 3.6 BILLION for VETS Health Care PASS. 911 Commissions reccomendations PASS. COPS improvement act of 2007 PASS. Homeland security bill PASS. Medicare can now directly negotiate with pharmacutical companies PASS. HEALTH CARE for chidren PASS. Bill to cut studen loan rates PASS. Head start bill PASS. Increase in college grants PASS.

Ok I'm tired, the list goes on and on and many issues don't always make the national news.

I could also go into the list of bills that were VETO'd by the idiot at the white house. Shall we go there?

Any more questions windbag?

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marctx:

Pork requests:

McCain 0
Obama 1,000,000,000 or 1,000,000 per day in office

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nick-socal:

No boomshak the Iraq War was 'won' way back when we stormed into Baghdad and planted our flag so many years ago now. Remember, to win a war you must defeat the opposing nation's army, over throw their government and install your own friendly government. Well, guess when that happened? What is going on now is an occupation and we are improving in some areas and keeping the status quo in others. You CANNOT win an occupation. Obama understands this. McCain doesn't.

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PortlandRocks:

Yes ... that's right. The American public, BASED ON THESE POLL #'s, are CLEARLY blaming the DEM congress for everything, not the Republican party. MY BAD:) WINDBAG.

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boomshak:

Seriously guys, what Democratic Legislation that would have solved all of our current problems did the Republicans block?

Let me summarize the Democrat Congress achievements of the last 2 years:

1. Valerie Plame Investigation
2. Valerie Plame Investigation
3. Valerie Plame Investigation
4. "The War in Iraq is Lost"

That about sums it up...

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ticketstub:

Hey...this conversation just reminded me of something...Remember when Republicans were SO aghast that Democrats would even consider using a filibuster against judicial nominees that they threatened to used the nuclear option to get rid of the ability to filibuster?

Man, those guys sure came around, didn't they?

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PortlandRocks:

Dems certainly didn't have much help from the 49% percent of congress which is Republican. Or how about the senate? Most were too busy frequnting bathroom stalls in airports.

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

You are trying to be funny, right?

Give me the list of Dem Legislation that would have kept Gas at $2.33 a gallon, GDP over 4% and Unemployment under 5% that the Republicans blocked.

C'mon man.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Okay wait lets address this first:

"Oh that's right, we won the war in Iraq."

Let's all read that again:

"we won the war in Iraq."

I'll just point out a few of the things that are ridiculous about this statement:

1. In which at-peace countries does the US have a military presence that has 25-50 soldiers killed every month?

2. If we won the war in Iraq already, why is McCain saying that a main reason to elect him is that he wants to win in Iraq, while according to him Obama does not?

3. If we won the war in Iraq already why the hell are tens of thousands of troops still there?

Okay but let's move on from that - you want to know why the current economic disaster is not the fault of the current Democratic congress. It is partially the fault of the Democratic congress, but only because they did not act quickly and decisively enough to fix the mess that the Republicans made in deregulating the banking industry. You cannot name one thing that the Democratic congress has done to _cause_ this mess - their failure was a failure to stop it pre-emptively. So while they're not innocent, it's still absurd to say "Well, Fred set your house on fire, but it burned down because the fire department's response time was slow. And the fire trucks were slow largely because Fred put a bunch of barricades in the road. But we're charging fire department with arson and making Fred the new fire chief."

____________________

boomshak:

Guys, I am STLL waiting.

List for me theLEGISLATION BY DEMOCRATS that would have prevented the problems we now face but that was blocked by Republicans.

You have stated that NONE of this is your fault and it was only because the Republicans blocked all your great ideas.

Ok, what GREAT IDEAS?

____________________

Robi:

marctx:

McCain voted for a pork bill.

YESTERDAY

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ticketstub:

@boomshak

Here, without doing any research, I can think of one off the top of my head.

The Republicans filibustered the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act just earlier this year, I believe.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Karl Rove is still walking the streets - Valerie Plume Investigation - fail

They can't even get that right!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak YOUR PARTY WAS IN CHARGE FOR 10 years in CONGRESS AND 8 years in the presidency. WHAT DID YOU DO? God man..you are freakin' DELUSIONAL.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Valerie Plame investigation? In the last two years? Libby was indicted in 2005 and convicted in January 2007. The investigation took place during a Republican-controlled congress.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Tyler you're perfect man! "Well, Fred set your house on fire, but it burned down because the fire department's response time was slow. And the fire trucks were slow largely because Fred put a bunch of barricades in the road. But we're charging fire department with arson and making Fred the new fire chief."

I'm a firefighter and this just has me rolling. Believe it or not people do try to blame US for their mistakes.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Can you hear BOOMWINDBAG in Feb. 2009? Obama's been president for one month. He's been president for a MONTH AND WE STILL HAVE THIS DEFICIT! JESUS! ROFL Fail.

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johncoz:

@nick-socal

It's actually worse than that for McCain, since MO, IN and NC are all in play as well.

Meanwhile, Palin can sink McCain tonight, but she can't save him.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Tyler

Your analogy is spot on :)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

In the meantime BoomWindBag is busy using "the google."

____________________

Paul:

Compared to 2004 exit poll for ideology, this Economist poll understates Obama lead. In this poll, liberal, moderate, conservative split is 20-41-38. In 2004 split was 21-45-34.

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boomshak:

@Tyler:

"1. In which at-peace countries does the US have a military presence that has 25-50 soldiers killed every month?"

How many civilians were murdered in Chicago, IL this year?

http://timwheatley.org/www/2008/09/05/2008-328-chicago-murders-247-iraq

"328 people have been murdered in the Chicago area this year.
247 U.S. Troops have been killed in Iraq this year."

Iraq is safer for our troops than Chicago is for Civilians - and which candidate for POTUS comes from Chicago?

And this:
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/crs-stats-show-troop-deaths-at-peacetime-rate
-

" You cannot name one thing that the Democratic congress has done to _cause_ this mess - their failure was a failure to stop it pre-emptively."

You can't be serious. Democrats BLOCKED legislation to regulate Freddie and Fannie. Duh.
-

So owned.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

No one is going to go to the effort of researching legislation to form a convincing argument against someone that has made it abundantly clear that, no matter what, he is going to remain delusional, stubborn and ignorant.

waste of time fail.

____________________

nick-socal:

"Iraq is safer for our troops than Chicago is for Civilians - and which candidate for POTUS comes from Chicago?"

Hogwash! There's 3 million people in Chicago for a death rate of 1 out of every 9,146 residents. In Iraq there is roughly what, 130,000 troops? That's 1 out of every 526 troops.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

God this is HUMEROUS. I'm glad America is placing the blame on the people in charge for 10 and 8 years, CLEARLY per polling.

____________________

boomshak:

@Portland,

At the end of the Republican's Congressional Leadership, the numbers looked like this:

ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN JANUARY OF 2006:
GDP: 4.2%
Unemployment: 4.7%
Gas Prices: $2.33/gallon

And you ask "what did "Republicans do?"...

Well, THAT.

P.S., What did Democrats do?

ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN OCTOBER OF 2008:
GDP: 2.8%
Unemployment: 6.1%
Gas Prices: $4.15/gallon

That.

Honestly, if the tables were turned and Republicans had taken power in 2006 then things went to sh*t, you would be telling me not to worry, it was really all the Democrats fault?

Huh?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

what a stupid argument. So your standard for whether we are technically at war or not has to do with whether there are more soldier deaths in said conflict than on the streets of Chicago?

you tool.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Tonight Sarah Pailin will put the final nail in the presidential careers of Romney, Guliani, Thompson, Huckabee, Obama, and Biden.

Boomshak you are a great American.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@greg

"Tonight Sarah Pailin will put the final nail in the presidential careers of Romney, Guliani, Thompson, Huckabee, Obama, and Biden"

tomorrow, you will look like a very, very stupid person.

____________________

Connor:

@boomshat

You tard. Off the top of my head: How about the Renewable Energy Jobs Creation Act? Or all the griping about Webb's new GI Bill which McCain and Bush fought until the media shamed them into going along with it?

Those are two very very high profile pieces of legislation that Republicans spent months blocking (and in the first case, are still blocking).

And then there's SCHIP expansion...

You really are completely stupid, aren't you?

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak: "And what is Barack Obama promising us now?"

If somebody were to run on the platform of removing your bowels through your ears, they'd instantly have my vote. I know you're not a TOTAL idiot, because you occasionally make good posts, and I've seen a few with a lot of insight. You DO, however, choose to make a lot of really stupid posts, which removes any chance you have of getting any respect from anybody on these boards.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

More people have been killed in Chicago this year than American troops in Iraq. Good job Barry. Losser HA HA

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdufus:

"No one is going to go to the effort of researching legislation to form a convincing argument against someone that has made it abundantly clear that, no matter what, he is going to remain delusional, stubborn and ignorant."

Dude, this Forum is Cluelessville and you are the Mayor!

So what you are saying is that there really is ALL KINDS OF GREAT LEGISLATION BY DEMS THAT WOULD HAVE SAVED US ALL BUT WAS BLOCKED BY REPUBLICANS but it just isn't worth your time to look it up for me?

Dude, why do you even need to look it up? You should KNOW it if it is so obvious.

You have just been owned.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@boomshak:

I’ve been trying my best to ignore you, but we’ve been through this before. Here’s our exchange from September 18th. Can’t let you try to get away with this again. Please, I begging you. Go back to high school and take a civics class.

Napoleon Complex:
boomshak:
How about the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007 that was written by Democrat Brad Miller of NC and passed the House, but was blocked in the Senate by Republicans. The mortgage and banking industries went nuts when this was introduced and used all of their lobbying power to kill it in the Senate. Sorry, got you again.
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:29 AM
____________________
boomshak:
@Napoleon Complex:
How exactly was it "blocked" in the Senate by Republicans? Democrats control the Senate! - duh.
If it was like most Dem Bills, it probably contained language calling for unconditional surrender in Iraq.
Posted on September 18, 2008 10:58 AM
____________________
Napoleon Complex:
@boomshak:
Have you never heard of the filibuster? To get it out of committee, they would have to have a floor vote. The Dems couldn't get a floor vote, because it requires 60 votes to cut off debate by the Republicans. They only have 50 or 51 votes. Jesus, would you back to high school and take a civics class?
Besides, you asked for one example of what the Dems had tried to do to prevent the current crisis. Now, since you have no legitimate argument, you have to throw in this b.s. about surrending Iraq. Pathetic.
Posted on September 18, 2008 11:06 AM
____________________


____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@bookshak:

I guess I own you.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Be intellectually honest. You can't compare battle deaths to a murder rate. That's apples and oranges. Why don't you compare the number of soliders killed in Iraq to the number of police officers killed in Chicago? Or even the US? Do it per capita if you want to feel really obviously wrong today.

And again, if we won, why are we still there in such great numbers, and doing so much of the deadly work?

____________________

boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

Ok genius.

Name for me the DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATION that has been blocked by Republicans that would have saved us from the current mess.

I am STILL waiting.

Nancy Pelosi said "Democrats have a common-sense approach to lowering gas prices..." What exactly was that approach? Blocking all off-shore drilling?

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Kerrchdavis.....to late I already feel stupid by trying to help poor misguided liberals. I thank you for your opinion never the less.

____________________

Connor:

@boomshat

Back again for a "spanking," eh you sick troll?

Once again: can we get on a conference call with you and marctx the day Obama wins? I promise we won't say a word. We'll simply listen!

We will listen, boomshat, you ridiculous masochist.

____________________

boomshak:
____________________

MB1122:

@boomshak

"Seriously guys, what Democratic Legislation that would have solved all of our current problems did the Republicans block?"

You're nothing if not entertaining Boom :) I love it - "DAMMIT THE DEMS HAVEN'T SOLVED ALL OUR PROBLEMS - SEE? SEE HOW BAD THEY SUCK?!?!"

You want to know the efforts by the Democrats that the Republicans blocked and/or slowed?

link: http://democrats.senate.gov/journal/entry.cfm?id=277868&

First let's go back to last year (within the first 6 months of the Dems coming to power):
# in the first half of the first session of the 110th Congress, there were THIRTEEN cloture votes on motions to proceed – each one wasting days of Senate time. (110th Congress, Roll Call Votes #44, 51, 53, 74, 129, 132, 133, 162, 173, 207, 208, 227, and 228)
# In comparison, in the first sessions of the 108th and 109th Congresses combined, there were a total of FOUR cloture votes on motions to proceed.

FOLLOW THE LINK ABOVE FOR MORE SPECIFICS

THEN this year -
link: http://democrats.senate.gov/journal/entry.cfm?id=303202

we see the repubs block legislation for CHILDREN'S HEALTH INSURANCE, EQUAL PAY FOR EQUAL WORK, HEATING/COOLING ASSISTANCE FOR LOW INCOME FAMILIES, and LOWERING PRESCRIPTION DRUG PRICES.

Seriously boom. Just do a LITTLE googling - it's not hard.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

no boom, you owned me by predicting that the race would be tied this weekend. In fact, you owned us all.

I didn't say that there were all kinds of great legislation. I said no one is going to take the time to try to convince a biased right wing lying tool like yourself of something that you will ultimately find an excuse to reject anyway.

I would have more luck trying to convince a klan member to vote black than any of us would trying to convince you to think logically, rationally and most of all fairly.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerrchdavis

Get your racist attitude elsewhere you baffon !

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

Now please, tell us all how the race is going to be tied this weekend you pathetic nut?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

And his Iraq #'s completely discount the thousands upon thousands of MURDERED children, women, and men who had NOTHING to do with Bush's problem with Saddam. Sad. Typical right wing but case. How CHRISTIAN of you.

____________________

MB1122:

"The strategy of being obstructionist can work or fail...and so far, it's working for us"

- Republican Whip Trent Lott (Roll Call 4/18/07)

____________________

voteforamerica:

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

____________________

[nemesis]:

VivalaRevolucion:

"@ Kerrchdavis

Get your racist attitude elsewhere you baffon !"

Proof once again that Republicans are masters at taking things completely out of context and creating lying smears with them.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

Bozama and Baffoniden will be taken by a landslide by mid-October .. The tide is turning as seen on today's CO and VA polls..

____________________

Viperlord:

Oooh, poor misguided liberals. I feel sorry for you you deluded ignorant conservative. See, I can do it too.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Viva

"Get your racist attitude elsewhere you baffon !"

Um, I don't have a racist attitude. Even if I did, what the hell are you saying? Get it elsewhere? like amazon? target?

Why don't you learn to speak English and then come back?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I am loving the fact that Americans have thrown Republicans in the TOILET where they belong, yes, the airport bathroom stall THUGS.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ nemesis

may be your Masters but not mine ...

____________________

Viperlord:

Wow, are the McCainiacs (I can also use silly names@) unable to read polls that don't show McCain in the lead?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Desperation has officially SET IN. LOVE IT!

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerrchdavis

You just proved my point .. Your racism is obvious from your posts .. now attacking hispanics! You are a KKK in disguise amigo ..

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Vivala

Here, try them:

http://www.rosettastone.com/

With hard work and consistency, you might be putting coherent sentences together BEFORE the election.

tool.

____________________

[nemesis]:

VivalaRevolucion:

Ok, nothing you say actually makes sense, you can't spell (it's buffoon you idiot), and you apparently can't understand what you're reading either. I'm with kerrchdavis. You need to go learn the language and then come back... or don't, we won't mind if you stay away.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

VivalaRevolucion today's CO and VA poll? McCain down 1 in CO with a 12% Repub weighting advantage? ROFL Depserate. Kerrchdavis is no racist. You're a silly closet case. Go find a bathroom stall somewhere THUG. It's what you people do.

____________________

Viperlord:

Kerrchdavis has yet to make a single racist remark while conservatives here (Not you but others) have made several.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerrchdavis

I guess seeing Bozama and Baffooniden slip through is making you loose control ... I would suggest a nice Maritni , some popcorn and enjoy Palin putting the rug over your Babbling Biden...

____________________

[nemesis]:

VivalaRevolucion:

Oh yeah, one more thing, that CO poll you're referencing is 1.5 weeks old... not exactly relevant today.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Vivala

lol! Look, learn English and then get back to me when you understand what I am saying

I will admit to being prejudiced against stupid people such as yourse..oh, whoops! sorry, learn the language first, we'll talk later.

____________________

MB1122:

@Boom

Did you read Napolean Complex's post above (about the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007)? doesn't look like it.

____________________

Viperlord:

*Deep breath* HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I guess you've never seen Palin do a interview or talk period.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ PortlandRock

I guess you just joined Kerrchdavis KKK club.. May be you can learn civility from Viperlord .

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I love all of the cheerleading from the thugs after completely raping our great nation for 8 years. Completely destroying everything they touch. Sex scandals, pastors, molestation, the economy, war, disgust after disgust. And now they are so desperate. Waiting for the smallest sign of hope and optimism. You guys should really just give it up. America is unhappy. 80% believe the country is going in the wrong direction. I know dems hate it when I tell you this but IT'S OVER. The race is all but over. We will glide to Nov.

____________________

Viperlord:

Kerrchdavis has not made a single racist remark. Period. End of story. Stop the spinning.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerrchdavis

May be you can teach me your language Master of the English Language ..

____________________

PortlandRocks:

VivalaRevolucion you fool. I'm a gay hispanic, half white mind you. Did you have anything else to say to me loser?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Vivala

Everyone here is in the "I know how to speak English" club.

Why don't you come back when you make sense? Calling people racists when they're not means you're either stupid or you don't understand what you are reading.

I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt...for now.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Viperlord

This is so nice of you .. I admire your civility ..

____________________

PortlandRocks:

These aren't Republicans posting here. They are NEO-CONS. Crazy right wing molestors.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Neo Cons will rape you then make you pay for your own rape kit. Typical.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Vivala

Here you go: http://www.learnenglish.de/

You better vote for Obama. He'll give you free college tuition for community service.

run along, the grown ups are trying to have a conversation.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Kerrchdavis

You are such a bigot .. and all these guys like Viperlord trying to defend your KKK roots ..

____________________

Viperlord:

I'm not sure whether that was sarcasm or not, but thanks anyway. *Gives courtly bow* And, correct Portland. Republicans are quite tolerable. Crazy neo-cons aren't.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

VivalaRevolucion let's recap the past 10 days. I know facts are hard for you to determine. Give me a call if you have any questions.


RCP Average 09/26 - 10/01 -- 49.0 43.3 Obama +5.7
Gallup Tracking 09/29 - 10/01 2747 RV 48 43 Obama +5
Rasmussen Tracking 09/29 - 10/01 3000 LV 51 44 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/28 - 10/01 800 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/29 - 10/01 908 RV 47 42 Obama +5
Marist 09/28 - 09/30 943 LV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Time 09/26 - 09/29 1133 LV 50 43 Obama +7
CBS News/NY Times 09/21 - 09/24 LV 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 09/22 - 09/23 689 LV 49 44 Obama +5

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Vivala

www.dictionary.com

look up "bigot." C'mon man, English is not that hard. In the meantime, look up "tool." It should have a picture of you, holding a hammer.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Viva Obama!:)

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Viperlord, Portland

btw guys, thanks for the defense :D

____________________

Viperlord:

@Vivla: Your hopeless. No racist comments have been made by anyone. If you can't read well enough to tell that, I might as well stop trying.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ PortalndRock

Send your number .. Tides are turning and Obamas numbers are less good ... a fact is a fact .. This trend continues, Obama is gone by Mid-October ..
And BTW , polls are great and fun , but the real poll is in November ... and then I may call you .. Adios Amigo ...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

kerrchdavis we left coasties always stick up for each other.

____________________

1magine:

Honestly boomy, what I don't understand is - if you know Sydney has run a piss poor campaign - why would you want to see him win. If you have been studying these things, you would know that history is clear that candidates run their campaign the way they will eventually run their administrations.

Even though busy wushy ran on being a compassionate conservative he ran the campaign of a nasty neo con, filled with yes men, and stacked his appearances with partisans b/c his strong distaste for dissent, - hence how he ran this country. You want a clearer picture - the campaign made it an absolute first rule for the second debate that no media would have access behind the candidates or would be allowed to take pictures or go behind the candidates during the debate. While the media has generally failed to report this insane rule, they readily dismissed the clear box poking out of his jacket. You think we forgot about that one. Oh please - GWB cheat or lie to gain an advantage. It seems like such a DIUYUUUUHHHH moment now, but there are always clues. IE BO found lots to agree with Sydney about during the first debate and Sydney ridiculed him for it. You probably wont - but maybe someone else will think about this.

____________________

zotz:

VivalaRevolucion-
You know you don't sound like a Hispanic. You sound like a fat redneck pretending to be a Hispanic.

Why is that?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

man, some really confused people in this world.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

VivalaRevolucion could you direct me to YOUR polls. Your special little poll showing a trend the other direction? This is comical.

I'm waiting VIVA OBAMA!

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Lord Kerrchdavis

Thank you for the english lesson O master of the language.

I looked up tool and saw a picture of you and there was a hammer but only a part of it was seen !

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@imagine

I made that point to him earlier, I'm still waiting for a response

@portland

hell yeah! ;)

@zotz

Its like a redneck and a troll had an illiterate child

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Viva! I'm waiting! Was it this set of #'s out of Colorado?

RCP Average 09/19 - 09/28 -- 49.0 44.6 Obama +4.4

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 49 48 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 794 LV 51 47 Obama +4
Ciruli Assoc. 09/19 - 09/23 501 LV 44 43 Obama +1
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7

____________________

boomshak:

@Napolean:

H.R. 3915: Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007

Can you please give me a link explaining exactly WHY the Republicans in the Senate opposed this? I have been Googling for 15 minutes and can't find an explanation.

I see that it passed easily in the House with bipartisan support.

From what I have read, there is far more to the Bill that just what is in the title and the failure may have had something to do with Illegal Immigration.

Anyway, since you are convinced it failed ONLY due to lobbying by the mortgage industry, please provide the link that explains that.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Or Viva..You MUST be referring to FLORIDA?

RCP Average 09/27 - 09/30 -- 48.6 45.6 Obama +3.0

CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 770 LV 51 47 Obama +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/30 - 09/30 532 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Suffolk/WSVN 09/27 - 09/30 600 LV 46 42 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 836 LV 51 43 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ zotz

How did you know I was your brother ? See you later tonite for some pig ears bro --

____________________

PortlandRocks:

or Virginia?

RCP Average 09/27 - 10/01 -- 49.0 46.6 Obama +2.4

Mason-Dixon 09/29 - 10/01 625 RV 45 48 McCain +3
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 684 LV 53 44 Obama +9
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 436 LV 51 45 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 50 47 Obama +3

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Or is it the +1 poll in OHIO?


RCP Average 09/27 - 09/29 -- 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0

SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@vivala

No, no, no...you were supposed to look up "tool." Of course when you look up "cool" theres a picture of me.

Ahh, whats the point? You're a delusional freak anyway.

Tell us Vivala, what is your prediction for this weekend? Who is going to be leading the polls on Monday morning?

Please..show us what an idiot you are.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

well good night amigos .. Hope you waste the rest of your pathetic evenings on the internet .. I will go now as at least I have a life ...

____________________

boomshak:

@1magine:

"Honestly boomy, what I don't understand is - if you know Sydney has run a piss poor campaign - why would you want to see him win."

I have never really liked McCain. Romney was my man. However, I am scared to death what America will look like when the party that goes to speak at DailyKos Conventions takes total control.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I forgot you didn't need NC to win Viva:)

Rasmussen 09/30 - 09/30 700 LV 47 50 Obama

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boom no worries fear monger. The country will probably end up more like the Clinton years than the Bush years. You'll be really ok!

VivalaRevolucion BUH BYE.

____________________

1magine:

Ive pointed this out before - there are still about 30% of the people in this great nation of ours who think bushy has literally been a God send. Despite everything they love him. Life is too short to speak to people like that, you must just trust that in successive generations the genetic mutation will occur less frequently.

____________________

Viperlord:

About all this evil liberal crap, I think I'll just quote a certain famous President.

"If by a 'Liberal' they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people — their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties — someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a 'Liberal,' then I'm proud to say I'm a 'Liberal.'-John F. Kennedy.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boomshak... I gotta say..Wouldn't you be better of out campaigning in NC then on here wasting time spinning the party line to the partisons? I mean..don't you live in NORTH CAROLINA which your boyfriend Rasmussen shows Obama now up by 3? GET OFF YOUR BUTT NEO CON! They are counting on you!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I know and Boom is CLEARLY that 30%. It's just frustrating to those of us (70%) who have actually watched them DESTROY the United States.

____________________

Viperlord:

What I find amusing about this assumption we're all Democrat partisans, is that I'm not. I'm a moderate liberal, I agree with conservatives whenever they manage to come up with something good, and if a Republican comes up with some good ideas, I'll agree with them.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

WOW this is telling. This is a STRATEGY just hoping the LEFTY candidate DOESNT REALLY have the #'s even though every poll indicates so? LOL WOW

McCain camp discusses strategy, voters
18:21 | 02/10/2008
McCain campaign conference call

October 2, 2008


Mike Duhaime, Political Director, McCain-Palin 2008

Greg Strimple, Senior Adviser, McCain-Palin 2008


On deciding to stop ads in Michigan:

DuHaime: In Michigan, there will be scaled back operations. Resources will move to Maine where we will be opening up an aggressive campaign, as well as Ohio and Penn.


We aren't planning on doing any advertising there (in Michigan); if it begins to swing back in our favor we will go back there.


Strimple: The RNC had their best fund raising month since Oct. 2000. We're looking to turn the page on this financial crisis and focus on Obama's risky record. We have seen strong returns in absentee ballots in many states.

On winning votes in key states:

DuHaime: One of the decisions our campaign has made is to let Obama spend his resources there (Indiana) until we got closer to the election. In my years of polling I have never seen someone with a more liberal imagery among the electorate. I believe he is going to have a hard time winning votes and it will have been money spent in vain.


Strimple: The focus of our campaign is suburban women and independents. The equation in all of these states is different, and we do have, I believe, a large democrat voting block and that will make a difference in the end.

On why McCain is behind in Florida:

Duhaime: In Florida, Obama has spent an incredible amount of money throughout the summer. All of the states that we talk about right now are of course states which are not safe states in any direction… we feel confident about Florida; generally a democrat who is successful in a state like some of the ones we are talking about is a centrist democrat (not the case with Obama).

____________________

PortlandRocks:

And that's McCain's plan! WOW. LOL

____________________

boomshak:

UT-OH. THIS HEADLINE FROM DRUDGE:

"UK ambassador delivers frank assessment of 'decidedly liberal' Obama in secret letter to British PM Gordon Brown... LONDON TELEGRAPH to reveal all in leaked letter... Developing..."

This one might sting a bit.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Uh oh! Someone in a foreign country wrote an opinion on Obama! ITS OVER! UH OH! LOL

____________________

kerrchdavis:

sounds serious...lol

____________________

zotz:

Viperlord-
I am not so much a Democrat as I am an anti-Republican. Some things Obama says I strongly disagree with. But at least he has some common sense. I used to think of McCain that way (in the 90s) but he has been totally brainwashed by the neocons. Now I believe he is actually more dangerous than Bush.

____________________

Viperlord:

I'm betting he made it up anyway. And even if not, Europeans have been shown to MASSIVELY prefer Obama.

____________________

Viperlord:

And what happened to the right wing line on how Gordon Brown is a Obama hack?

____________________

1magine:

Portland no offense - but I've met Clinton, I know Clinton and thank God almighty - BO is no Bill Clinton. I thinke he has wisely learned the economic model that worked to end the deficits of the prior 12 years and leave us with the largest surplus in history.

BC and his philandering and grand standing ego however really helped newtygurl divide the country. BO I believe will help bridge many of our divides. I heard him speak about the number of abortions in this country as unsettling. That we all agree we must find a way to reduce the number of teen and unwanted pregnancies. It was a wow moment for me personally. Not criminalization, not abortions for all, not overblown rhetoric, but an understanding of the issue and a real desire to reach out to all concerned to find common ground to address a sensitive problem.

____________________

boomshak:

OUCH! THIS ONE IS GONNA LEAVE A MARK!

"Exclusive: Barack Obama is 'aloof' says British ambassador to US"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3125120/Barack-Obama-is-aloof-says-British-ambassador-to-US.html

____________________

1magine:

Portland no offense - but I've met Clinton, I know Clinton and thank God almighty - BO is no Bill Clinton. I thinke he has wisely learned the economic model that worked to end the deficits of the prior 12 years and leave us with the largest surplus in history.

BC and his philandering and grand standing ego however really helped newtygurl divide the country. BO I believe will help bridge many of our divides. I heard him speak about the number of abortions in this country as unsettling. That we all agree we must find a way to reduce the number of teen and unwanted pregnancies. It was a wow moment for me personally. Not criminalization, not abortions for all, not overblown rhetoric, but an understanding of the issue and a real desire to reach out to all concerned to find common ground to address a sensitive problem.

____________________

boomshak:

Exclusive: Barack Obama is 'aloof' says British ambassador to US

"Barack Obama is a "decidedly liberal" senator "who was finding his feet, and then got diverted by his presidential ambitions", according to a frank verdict delivered to Gordon Brown by the British ambassador to the United States."

____________________

Viperlord:

Oh dear. Somebody has a opinion that runs contrary to what almost all Europeans think. IT'S THE END! Boom is really grasping at straws now.

____________________

AlanSnipes:

McCain troops are retreating from Michigan!

Sarah Palin studied for her pap test!

She lost at charades to Stevie Wonder!

She took the Pepsi Challenge and chose Jiff!

These are of course within the margin of error.

____________________

zotz:

boom-
In Britain the word "liberal" is not as much a pejorative term as it is here. Churchill was a member of the Liberal party for twenty years.

____________________

boomshak:

Marc Ambinder - Obama Insiders say his numbers are "artificially high"...

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/mccains_now_playing_defense_ob.php#more

"For their part, Obama aides declined to characterize McCain's electoral strategy. They fear that Obama's numbers are artificially high, and that the race will tighten somewhat before November 4. They also worry that McCain, who's been running a mix of positive and negative television ads, will dump his money into an entirely negative campaign in October, one that would question Obama's fitness, patriotism and identity."

COMMENT:
These campaigns run internal polling without the benefit of BS weightings. They actually want to know THE TRUTH. They know Obama isn't running away with this like the MSM polls would lead is to believe.

____________________

Viperlord:

Is it just me or does he just get more desperate and desperate?

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

What does "decidedly liberal" mean in England that is different than the US? I mean, Obama's voting record has been "decidedly liberal", has it not?

He was "decidedly liberal" in the primaries. Only now is he suddenly "moderate".

____________________

boomshak:

@Viperlord:

It's just you.

____________________

zotz:

"Decidedly liberal" would be no more of an insult than "decidedly conservative".
Only since Reagan has the word "liberal" become a put down. In fact Kennedy and Johnson were called liberals and it wasn't concidered an insult.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:
____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"OUCH! THIS ONE IS GONNA LEAVE A MARK!"

Why? Do you really think anyone in the United States cares what the British ambassador thinks?

____________________

boomshak:

@Napolean,

That article doesn't say that Republicans filibustered it due to pressure from Mortgage Bankers. You are making a logical leap.

____________________

boomshak:

FUN WATCHING INTRADE:

I always find it amusing to watch Intrade during these debates. You can tell how each candidate is doing based upon the trading.

During the McCain/Obama debate, Obama's lead shrunk from 16 to just 4. Then after the debate when all the talking heads tried to convince us that Obama really won, his lead went back to 16.

So anyway, watch it during the debates. It's fun :)

____________________

zotz:

Boom- Are you responsible for this?

"Barack Obama's campaign is receiving increasing complaints about scam pollsters involved in dirty tricks operations to discredit the Democratic candidate."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/03/uselections2008.barackobama1

____________________

slinky:

I expect Sarah Palin to win the debate tonight, and I expect Biden to make at least one gaffe. If either of these is not the acknowledged opinion of nearly every commentator, then Biden will have won, and McCain's prospects will have considerably dimmed.

Again, Palin wins before she enters the auditorium in St. Louis, just by showing up. Biden loses simply by acting like, well, like Biden. You'll see.

____________________

change:

@ slinky

first of all if sarah palin doesn't mention that her proximity to Russia enhances her foreign policy experience- thats a win. I mean this women is truly clueless; she's running for VP but couldn't name a single supreme court case decision other then roe v wade= pathetic! this is a shameless joke by the McCain! is he serious about her? hahahahahaha

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:
Boom- Are you responsible for this?

"Barack Obama's campaign is receiving increasing complaints about scam pollsters involved in dirty tricks operations to discredit the Democratic candidate."

Lol, nope sorry. It's called "push polling" by the way and its done by both sides every election.

Obama needs to grow a set and stop crying.

____________________

change:

@boomshak

Rasmussen Obama is winning 51-44, i hope you aren't going to argue that Rasmussen has sold out to Obama, you Republicans have held that brand in high regard!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@boomshak:

I’m making a logical leap? You set up a fallacious cause and effect argument that the Democrats ruined the economy during the two years they had simple majorities in Congress, and I’m making a logical leap by showing you a Wall Street Journal article from 2007 entitled “Banks Fear Democrat Bids To Aid Mortgage Borrowers”?

Do you realize how ridiculous you are?

____________________

boomshak:

@change:

I think Ras is a bit high, but in a reasonable range and I like his modeling, so EVS.

Anyway, all the polls up till now don't matter. If Sarah stinks up the joint, Obama will win. If Sarah is amazing and Biden blows it, we may have a whole new race.

____________________

Tarp Lazer:

Boom - you are retarded. If you think you can pin a giant financial crisis on two years of Democratic control of Congress. This is a large, complicated issue that not surprisingly has a variety of origins. Some of this **** has its roots in legislation passed in the early 1980s. Plenty of people on both sides of the aisle share blame. Instead of just parroting the party line, why don't you do some research. Instead of posting on this website 10 hours a day, take a half-day off and go do some reading on this subject - you might in face learn something.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

It's fun watching Intrade when McDole is 35 points down!

____________________

boomshak:

RNC shatters monthly fundraising record

The RNC raised nearly $66 million in September, breaking its all-time record.

Committee spokesman Alex Conant credited the haul to the strength of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

The figure is a reminder that, despite her recent slip-ups, Palin injected an extraordinary boost into the GOP grass roots.

The next best month for the RNC was in October of 2000, when they raised $43 million.

____________________

Basil:

OK booboo,

Re the Atlantic article:

So you think that if the Obama people don't say that the most optimistic polls are real, it's because their internal polls are telling them it's probably a "statistical tie"?

Obama has a significant EV lead at the moment, but if we've learned nothing in the last two "elections" it's that R's get nasty and thuggish when they feel threatened.

So it's good of you to remind me and my fellow Obama supporters of what his aides already know: that we can't rest until the neocon nightmare is buried as deeply as possible by an Obama Tsunami.


____________________

vmval1:

Palin has absolutely won this debate. She has blown away the perception that she is a drooling mess.

____________________

Viperlord:

Wow, Biden TOTALLY blew away Palin, she blatantly lied and dodged the question many times, and Biden called her on it. A total victory for Biden.

____________________

boomshak:

@Viperlord:

Dude you are seriously on drugs. Palin was amazing and won.

This is a new race again tomorrow.

____________________

Viperlord:

Who's on drugs? She was caught lying and BSing multiple times, kept rambling and avoiding the questions, and was totally outperformed.

____________________

boomshak:

Luntz Focus group just declared Palin the WINNER almost unanimously. The group declared Obama the winner last time.

____________________

Bigmike:

Biden did no harm, which was his job.

Palin hit it out of the park.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Sorry, but all Palin succeeded in doing was not looking quite as stupid as in her interviews. She was repeatedly slapped by Biden, who caught her in numerous lies, and wouldn't stand for more of the same Republican tactics. She lost badly, but not nearly as bad as some expected. By no means a win for Palin.

____________________

boomshak:

Lol, you people are delusional. Palin clearly won. Not even close.

Nevertheless, I expect a CNN poll showing Biden won by a mile. This time they will remember NOT to give us their sample.

____________________

slinky:

Palin and Biden each got digs into the other. If there was a winner, it was by a hair. I did not see the debate as having a winner.

Biden made no major gaffes, as I predicted he would. So in that sense he won.

Palin was roughly as strong as I expected.

Those who thought Palin would roll over were mistaken. And, some of those are people who think she won the debate.

You see, only Repub. loyalists would consider holding their own against Biden as winning.

Republican loyalists, and those who were morbidly fearful that Palin would look like an idiot.

She didn't of course, and so they conclude she won.

But, she didn't win.

Who won?

No one. It was a draw.

____________________

[nemesis]:

How can the repubs be spinning this as a win... even the FOX poll shows Biden winning the debate 56% to 44%. That's FOX News. With 45000 votes... Kinda seems more like a massive Palin loss instead of a win.

____________________

As you can see after watching the debate Sarah Palin has no plan for the economy, and no plan to end this war in Iraq. She did not give one specific detail. McCain and Palin are all frosting and no cake. McCain and Palin are all about phony imagery with no substance. I don't trust McCain and Palin. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

boomshak:

CBS Flash Poll:

Ok, do I even need to show this because you KNOW what it's going to be:

Biden: 46%
Palin: 21%

Lol, what a steaming pile.

Meanwhile Drudge has it 73% Palin, 24% Biden and FoxNews has it 88% Palin and 12% Biden.

So pick your poll. That CBS thing just cracks me up. I mean, you just KNEW. Now they will lead their whole news cycle with how Biden killed Palin.

____________________

boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

"How can the repubs be spinning this as a win... even the FOX poll shows Biden winning the debate 56% to 44%. That's FOX News. With 45000 votes... Kinda seems more like a massive Palin loss instead of a win."

Lol, huh? The FoxNews Text Message vote gave Palin the win 88% to 12%.

____________________

boomshak:

Anyway, it really doesn't matter what we think. What matters is what white women voters that lost confidence in Palin thought.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Go to the FOX News online poll. with 51000+ votes, it actually went as high as 57% in Bidens favor.

____________________

boomshak:

{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...

BIDEN

26% 36,921
PALIN

73% 105,075
NEITHER

2% 2,667

Total Votes: 144,663

____________________

[nemesis]:

C'mon boomshak, really? the Drudge Report? You always joke about the Rush Limbaugh poll... Well you just posted one. The Drudge Report carries about the most right-wing garbage I've seen ANYWHERE online. Compared to them, FOX News actually IS "fair and balanced."


____________________

[nemesis]:

HAHAHAHAHAHA, FOX actually reset their poll because Biden was doing too well, that's priceless. They had well over 51,000 results, and now they have half of that.

____________________

boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

Let's be honest with each other. All of these post-debate polls are EXTREMELY BIASED one way or the other. As with CNN last week, they gave Democrats a 14 point sampling advantage (oops).

Anyway, let's see how Gallup and Rasmussen move over the next week or so. I don't trust any of these MSM polls. They are too invested in Obama victory.

____________________

boomshak:

Palin was at least as good tonight as she was at the convention, and you know how that turned out.

Love him or hate him, Frank Luntz and his "focus groups" almost always end up being right.

Last week, they had Obama winning. This week, almost unanimously they had Palin winning. We'll see.

P.S., Geesh, Biden has one terrible botox job on his forehead.

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak:

Honestly, I believe you're right, usually these polls (web-based) are extremely biased based on the type of people that usually visit the site. Fox has a republican bias, where as CBS probably has a democratic bias. I'm seeing a lead again on the FOX poll for Biden, with all the votes restored.... either something screwy happened for a minute on their servers and they got it fixed, or something went weird on my computer.

BTW: Please keep your posts like this last one at 11:46. It's actually enjoyable discussing with you like this. (Even if I think you take the MSM thing a little far)

____________________

boomshak:

Wow, over 1 million text messages in the FoxNews poll. Palin gets 86% of the vote.

____________________

boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

Just between you and me since it is late and not too much traffic here.

Let's be honest again, we are here in this chatroom because we like to argue about politics. No minds will be changed by anyhthing we say here. We are not activists, we are commentators.

What I think is funny is how obsessed everyone seems to be with me. I guess that's what happens when you are the only conservative in a room full of liberals.

____________________

[nemesis]:

I'm actually going to bed. Getting late here. Talk to you all later.

____________________

vmval1:

@Boom:

Evening. I'll take over from nemesis. :D

____________________

vmval1:

You really think this was a gamechanger?? She did well but I don't think well enough to alter the race.

____________________

vmval1:

Fox website has him winning 60 - 40.

____________________

H2OPlus:

@Boomshak

You're right in several respects about your treatment in this chatroom. You are one of the few right wing radicals here with far more moderates and liberals.

You're wrong though: there are other right wing radicals here besides you.

You're right: people here like to argue politics - it's a competitive experience very much like taking someone on in fencing, boxing, darts or chess.

Why do you get picked on? Well, you're an easy mark. People don't like to lose arguments and yours are easy to refute. It doesn't take much skill or talent to do so.

For one thing, you don't do a good job interpreting data. So they much rather jump on you rather than someone who is in danger of making them look like a fool.

You're also wrong about changed minds. You do not understand the many factors at play here.

First, do not focus on just your exchange with others. For every one person who writes a response, there are about 7-10 who read.

Second, do not be so narrow minded as to limit your interpretation of "changed minds" to simply being a change in vote. For instance, the selection of Palin stirred $10 million of donations for Obama and about $8 million for McCain within 24 hours. While most of these folks did not change their vote, they did change their minds about donating money. We all know the value of money in campaigns.

Third, change can also take the form of learning about the wedge arguments the other side is using. I watch FOX for that reason. I get a very good read on the talking points the rad right wants to emphasize. I also learn those from you and other rad right people. I have also come to change my mind about wedge arguments moderates and liberals can use.

For instance, from watching Hillary and now seeing McCain falling into the same trap, a Florida business man expressed it best on PBS: "Experience in this election is being seen as someone who has been a part of the system that has gotten us into these problems."

I've also learned from a poster on these boards that perhaps the electorate is tired of a tough talking cowboy who alienates allies and emboldens terrorists (which McCain seems to be as well - tough talking). Maybe the electorate's temperament is one of let's see what a cool, wise and personable person could do. The cowboy didn't work, so maybe the quiet one who is willing to talk to anyone might.

So, maybe . . . just maybe . . . you should change your views on change and realize that the change Americans want is more than a change of Republicans.


____________________

saywhat90:

i dont think it will change anything electorally speaking or in the polls maybe a point but no more than that. one thing everyone here is forgetting is this is john mccains camapaign. the polls didnt go down because of palin. they went down because of mccain. it was mccains erractic performance that hurt him not sarah. so he not sarah must bring over the undecided. women didnt leave because of sarah it was because of mccain and his poor economy stance. it was his failed political stunts that got him in this mess. had he not been wishy-washy mccain would still have a lead

____________________

Paul:

In the final analysis, from an electoral college point of view, I have Obama solid at 260 and assuming a tie goes to Obama at 269, based on where we stand now, he still needs one of the following to go over the top:

Win NH and NV (tie)
Win CO (tie)
Win one of following: OH, IN, MO, VA, NC, FL

I have to assume these states are where Obama will spend most of his time.

Which combination is least likely? - NH and NV both going Obama. Most likely - CO or VA.

In terms of watching the results on the evening of Nov 4 ---

1. Part of Indiana closes polls at 6pm EST.

2. Part of FL, part of NH, VA close polls at 7pm EST. A positive Obama announcement in VA or FL almost seals the deal. A positive announcement in NH would mean no tie unless the other Obama state is NV. Part of Indiana closes polls at 7pm. A positive Obama announcement in Indiana would almost seal the deal.

3. Polls close in NC and OH at 7:30 EST. A NC or OH Obama win almost seals the deal.

4. Part of NH, part of FL, MO close polls at 8pm EST. Again Obama win in NH means no tie unless the only other state won is NV. Win in FL or MO means Obama almost wins.

5. CO closes at 9pm EST. If Obama has not closed the deal yet, we will have to wait until CO votes are announced. A CO Obama win with no other option from above list means tie. I would suspect many would appreciate less stress with Colorado plus NH if NH has already announced Obama. That would put Obama over the top.

6. NV polls close at 10pm EST. At this point if Obama has not won, pro Obama folks may want to call in sick Wed --- it may be a long long night or even into next day. If CO has been announced Obama, with no other state from above won yet, it is a tie. To be safe, pro-Obama voters will need Nevada. There is no other state left that is not already been granted to McCain or Obama.

Long night?

____________________

wouldbe moonbat:

First of all, I am not an American. But if I were I would almost certainly be a Democrat because:

1) I don't care much for Jesus and if he were real, I am sure he wouldn't care much for me.

2)I don't own a gun.

3)I agree with abortion. In fact, judging by the participants on your daytime shows it becomes clear that there should be many, many more of them.

So that's a bit about me, if you don't like it - tough.

So the point of Sarah Palin is to appeal to Walmart mom's? It is a sad reflection of the world we live in that choosing the person with the nuclear launch codes to the worlds greatest arsenal of WMDs may rest with this group of individuals.
So I have an idea.
Since the greatest 'democracy' can take away votes from criminals, black people and anyone else who may endanger glorious America by voting for liberals, why don't the liberals disenfranchise Walmart moms?

It would be simple enough to do, and the liberal media could engineer it directly. You see a Walmart mom wants to vote but only if it doesn't interfere with her important schedule. So how about, on November 4, NBC broadcast a 24 hour uninterrupted final episode of Days of Our Lives where the entire cast are killed off. Hey presto, Walmart moms stay glued to the screens all day and we are all saved from the disastrous consequences of letting them make a decision that is clearly beyond their mental faculties.

On a separate note, since this election seems to be about who was the first to be most right about the many disasters created by the Bush Admin. here's something you all should know. I knew EIGHT YEARS AGO that a Bush presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. I was right then, I've been right all along and I am right, more than ever now.

So make me your President!

____________________

boomshak:

MSM REACTION TO PALIN/BIDEN DEBATE:

Not to worry folks, the script for this one was written before the debate began.

The Polls from CBS and CNN? Well, they have learned their lesson from last time and are not releasing the PARTY AFFILIATION weightings of their respondents. Not surprising as CNN was exciriated last time for their 14 point advantage to Democrats.

Anyway, the rediculousness continues:

CBS has Biden winning by 26 points (good lord) and CNN by 14 (sigh).

Just for some equally innacurate and biased "Conservative" voting, Drudge has:

BIDEN

30% 74,065
PALIN

68% 165,599
NEITHER

2% 4,091

Total Votes: 243,755

and FoxNews TextMessage Poll had Palin winning with 86% of the vote with over 1 million votes cast.

I mention these two because they are just as accurate as the liberal MSM polls.

THE TRUTH:
Joe Biden sounded quite knowledgeable, unless of course you understand that he quite eloquently stated 10 separate complete falsehoods as fact. But people expect that Biden, after 35 years in the Senate, would be something of a policy wonk.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, was on a different mission. To win back the White Female Vote where she exploded after the convention but has since fallen off.
She did that last night in spades.

P.S., Come on CBS/CNN, show us you party affiliation weightings.

____________________

boomshak:

What I find frustrating is that CNN/CBS and every other MSM outlet will lead their news tody with the fabricated numbers showing Biden crushing Palin.

Then all pf the sheep who didn't watch the debate will tune in and see, oh Biden won. Then Gallup and Rasmussen will poll everyone in 3 days after they have been influenced by the BS MSM polls and talking heads and THEY will also think Biden won because they have been told so.

CNN: Huge win for Biden!
FoxNews!: Huge win for Palin!

What else did we expect?

____________________

vmval1:

@boomshak

You are completely wrong about her winning back the White Female vote. She did absolutely not do that. If anything, she may have made a dent with males. The 'female' worm on CNN's undecided Ohio voters was consistently higher for Biden than Palin.

Time will tell, but I think you will se her favourability amongst white women drop over the next few days. This was not the home run that McCain needed. At best, it will be a 2 point shift - At absolute best...

____________________

Rames1980:

Boomshak - again the word is "ridiculous". And CBS and CNN conducted actual polls, whereas the Drudge figure is an online "vote" on a conservative website. It's a real outlier in the sense that it's methodology doesn't allow it to be compared to the CBS and CNN polls, which are actual polls.

Face it - Palin lost the debate, but she didn't talk of dinosaurs or otherwise make herself appear a complete basket case so she didn't do as badly as some Republicans feared.

The net effect of this debate is likely something like +1 for Obama, nothing major, just from looking at the undecideds in the two polls mentioned above.

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

You may be unaware of this, but CNN is COMPLETELY in the tank for Obama. Everything they do is designed with one goal in mind: get Obama elected.

The meme before the debate from Team Obama was that Palin would track well with men but have no impact on women. Guess what CNN's "worm" did? Exactly what Obama's Team suggested - shocker.

THE LUNTZ GROUP - After the debate was almost unanimous that Palin won. This is the same Luntz whose group last week that said Obama won.

____________________

boomshak:

Chris Matthews, if you can believe it: “I think she’s an extremely appealing politician. Her energy level was much better than Biden’s. I think Biden lost a little speed there during the evening. I think she came across terrific in terms of presentation.”

____________________

boomshak:

THE PROBLEM WITH CNN'S POLL:

"CNN’s post-debate poll, taken solely of debate watchers, has Biden winning 51-36. It’s worth noting that in that sample, whatever it might be, 54 percent believed before the debate that Palin was not an acceptable choice for vice president. That needle moved 5 points in her direction among those polled, 81 percent of whom said she did better than they expected."

So in this "fair-and-balanced" poll, 81% expected her to suck before the debate started? Lol, I can't even imagine what the sample must have looked like to come up with that number.

____________________

boomshak:

In order to come up with 500 "Independent Voters" on the spot like that, you have to hav them pre-arranged. Most likely from your database of viewers.

CNN viewers gave Biden and 'A' last night and Palin a 'D'. So a poll made up of CNN Viewers will unsurprisingly favor Biden.

____________________

boomshak:

FOCUS GROUP WARS:

"Two focus groups: Luntz’s focus group on Fox in St. Louis has Palin winning 20-4. CNN’s focus group in Ohio has Biden 20-12."

'Nuff said.

Although I think Luntz has more credibility as his group had Obama winning last week.

____________________

vmval1:

@Boomshak:

CNN are absolutely biased. So are FOX. - But its a stretch to say that they picked a bunch of people who had already made up their minds and called them 'undecideds'

Just because Luntz had Obama winning last week doesn't mean anything in context of todays debate. Also, the FOX website has Biden winning 61 to 39. Palin definitely won the expectations game (It was almost impossible for her not to). She didn't have a meltdown live on stage, but she didn't turn in a gamechanger either.

Like I said, time will tell.

On another note, Ifill was fantastic! She couldn't have been more balanced.

____________________

vmval1:

Krauthammer is as rightwing as they come, so it is interesting to read his take on all this. Note the last line.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obama_passing_the_reagan_thres.html

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

Let's be honest shall we? Internet polls are not scientific by any stretch. I am SURE that the DailyKos kids determined they would bomb the FoxNews Online Poll with a vengeance.

Meanwhile Palin supporters were busy texting Palin votes like mad to Fox where she got over 80% of 1 million votes.

As a matter of fact, I personally kept looking for a way to vote on Fox Online and couldn't find the poll.

BOTTOM LINE:
None of these "flash polls matter as they are all just loaded with bias and scientific innacuracy.

What matters is what the national and state polls from Rasmussen and Gallup look like in a week. These are the two independent pollsters with BIG reputations on the line and I doubt they want to be very wrong this close to the elections.

____________________

boomshak:

Where the hell is the FoxNews Online Poll? I still can't find the damned thing! There is no link to it that I can see on the cover page.

____________________

vmval1:

@Boomshak:

Forget what the MSM and all the other bull**** artists are saying. Do YOU (personally) think she turned in a game changed last night.

____________________

vmval1:

It is very poorly placed.

http://elections.foxnews.com/

look at the bottom of the page - 'Question of the Day'

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

Wow, ur kidding? No wonder no Republicans found it to vote. I'm sure however that dailyKos emailed everyone on where it was.

____________________

vmval1:

:D What are you saying about your Republican brethren?

____________________

boomshak:

"Women In Colorado Focus Groups Prefer Palin To Biden"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/independent-women-in-colo_n_131479.html

"In two different Colorado focus groups of married and unmarried women conducted directly after Thursday's vice presidential debate, respondents broadly agreed that Sarah Palin came off better than Joe Biden.

The married and unmarried focus groups of 10 women each were organized by the Womens Voices, Women Vote organization, and conducted by the firm of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research.

But whether or not the women identified said they were independent, undecided or more likely to support one candidate or the other -- virtually all of them said they came away from the debate with a better impression of Palin than each respondent had going in. The same was true even for respondents who thought Biden won the debate on points.

If these 20 women were any indication of the electorate at large, the McCain camp played the expectations game perfectly. One woman reported "gritting her teeth" at first, expecting Palin to fail in a big way, though she soon became comforted by Palin's "down home" poise.

"Palin was more genuine. She's a mom," one said. "She's more herself, just the way she talks -- it's down to earth," said another. Most of the women also said her "say it ain't so Joe" line was "hysterical," and that the "extra credit" line about her brother's class was endearing as well.

Biden, by contrast, was tagged with being "more arrogant," "Mr. Slick" and too lawyerly in his diction -- someone who the women found it difficult to relate to, outside of his tearing up at the mention of losing his first wife. One woman suggested he "get a refund" for his hair plugs.

"He seemed like a good old boy," one remarked.

"He changed his stances when Obama asked him to be VP. There's gotta be some truth to that, she [Palin] wouldn't just make that up," said another.

On the war, Biden seemed to do well with the women in the focus groups. Many wondered what Palin meant by "victory" in Iraq. But as an issue, Iraq ranked behind the economy as a concern for those who were vocal in the focus groups."

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

":D What are you saying about your Republican brethren?"

Hey I have an IQ of 140 and I couldn't find it, lol. Face it, that is obscure place to put an important poll.

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

I have HD TV and Biden looked downright scary to me. His eyes are almost drooped shut and his forehead has NO LINES on it at all. Hell, I'm 48 and my forehead is more wrinkled than that!

____________________

vmval1:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/biden-dominates-debate-ac_n_131455.html

On the other hand, Frank Luntz just quizzed his focus group on FOX (which was, strangely enough, sponsored by Budweiser, owned by Anheuser-Busch, of which Cindy McCain's Hensley company is the third largest distributor). Nearly all of them thought Palin did an excellent job and, perhaps, won the debate. When she talked about responsibility -- both on Wall Street and in Washington - the dial numbers went extremely high. Many respondents, meanwhile, said she came off as a "regular American." However, only three respondents in the group said they had moved towards voting for the McCain-Palin ticket.

Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin.

____________________

vmval1:

@Boomshak:

But do you think she changed the game?

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

@Boomshak:

"But do you think she changed the game?"

Hard to say. It's a weird election season. Let me ask you this. What happened after the Convention? McCain/Palin surged 15 points on Gallup and 9 points of Rasmussen. Was she any less impressive tonight?

Anyway, who knows. I expect a CLOUD of MSM polls doing everything in their power to show this made no difference.

Put yourself in my shoes for a second. Can you imagine how you would feel the the entire MSM was pounding the crap out of Obama every single day with every breath and praising McCain like he was the second coming? It gets discouraging and annoying.

I mean, really.

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boomshak:

I know this. If McCain runs the same campaign for the next month he has for the past 3, Obama wins in a walk, and deservedly so.

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vmval1:

Don't get discouraged - its all cyclical. The country will simply go to hell if only 1 party runs it all the time. The republicans have been at the wheel for 8 years, and it really is time for a change. In 4 (hopefully 8) years time, Bobby Jindal will be ripe (45), and I will probably vote for him then.

I thought John McCain was a very very good man. Until he picked Sarah Palin as his veep. It felt like he was selling his soul. He would've been absolutely fine if he picked Romney - hell I would have seriously considered voting for him if he picked Jindal. But Palin... She will have the nuke codes - NOT GOOD

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vmval1:

*she might have the nuke codes - NOT GOOD

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thoughtful:

Good Morning Boomshak

Your Girl did well last night.

Biden did better than expected as well.

McCain unfortunately is the McCain you think he is. He is the one running for President.

He married into money, he married into office.

He hasn't got the intellect, the temperament or know how to be President of the United States. You should thank the good lord he will be soundly beaten.

Never happy mornings again for John McCain

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vmval1:

Morning Thoughtful. Easy boy... still a month to go... don't jinx him.

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thoughtful:

Good Morning vmval1

John McCain is simply unelectable. VEEP debates no difference but if they do.

I thought Biden was really good, really measured, really disciplined.

Ifill was very relaxed with Palin, they got to her before hand. So Palin had a lot less pressure on her than otherwise. She didn't answer or ignored at least 6 questions.

However Palin did much better with women last night than she has been doing, which was no where near enough. We are voting for a President.

On the question of what would happen if a misfortune happened to McCain she was entirely unconvincing. As that was the main business -
FAIL.

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thoughtful:

@vmval1

Sorry to have spooked Boomshak, he doesn't like going one on one with me any more.

Do you Boom?

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Rames1980:

"Anyway, who knows. I expect a CLOUD of MSM polls doing everything in their power to show this made no difference."

This is firmly in the tin-foil hat category. The biases of US MSM have been the topic of academic study and they're found generally to bias in favor of the Republicans, not Democrats. Republicans complain about them because they feel the MSM isn't biased enough in their favor.

The debate unfolded exactly as predicted - Biden won, but Palin didn't completely collapse. The format was designed to protect Palin from one-on-one with Biden specifically to prevent her from totally collapsing. I think US voters should think, if it's a good idea to have a VP who has to be protected like this. Would you send Palin to Moscow for tough negotiations with Vladimir Putin?

It's no wonder both CNN and CBS polls put Biden on top of this exchange. The presidency or vice presidency are larger things than cramming a hockey mom with foreign policy for 4 days. I mean, come on!

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vmval1:

@Thoughtful:

Boom is OK! :) He's the classic case of vinegar and honey. Speaking rationally with him is much more effective than screaming abuse at him.

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thoughtful:

@Rames1980

She was no pitbull with lip stick.

Biden didn't feel the need and really didn't want to go after her.

The talk about Ifill's potential bias before hand neutralized her.

But bottom line this was as much of a flunk for Palin as Dan Quayle's by what wasn't answered and what wasn't said.

Biden didn't have to say she was no Ronald Reagan or hillary Clinton as it was so self evident how intellectually shallow she was last night.

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thoughtful:

@vmval1

Boomshak's a good guy!

I hope I don't push abuse in his direction, if I do he has my absolute apology,

I disagree with his poll or navel reading, I disagree with his his "Alice through the Looking Glass" view of the world.

MSM is paid for by advertisers and most of those are of GOP persuasion, so I disagree about wholesale DEM bias.

He will not front up what is happening in his own State of North Carolina.

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boomshak:

INTERESTING COMMENTARY ON THE POLLS WITH WHICH I CONCUR:

"According to most media accounts, last night's vice presidential debate was a thriller. Sarah Palin received much of the focus due to her lackluster performances in recent television interviews. But I stated in a blog post prior to the debate that pundits should not dismiss Palin, because many of her failings of late could result from her lacking the experience engaging the national media. Also, many Republicans said that Palin had been overly handled but that they were now "freeing Sarah." Well, she certainly seemed more comfortable, poised, and well versed last night, just like she did in some of her earlier outings. Biden pulled in a great performance as well -- given his tremendous experience.

Several polls have emerged since the debate which try to tell viewers "who won." All of these polls are hopelessly flawed.


CNN/Opinion Research
CNN declares on its website that "Debate Poll Says Biden Won, Palin Beat Expectations." The specifics of the poll show that 51% of those polled thought that Biden did better, while 36% gave the nod to Palin. But the poll does not disclose the party affiliation or candidate preferences of the individuals surveyed. Evaluating performance in a debate that lacked any real "knockout" punch will inevitably turn on partisan preferences. So, this poll is absolutely useless without information concerning the ideology and politics of the individuals evaluating the candidates.

This same problem plagued CNN's polling of the presidential debate. Then, the headlines declared Obama the winner, and the national media reprinted the results widely. But if you actually read the full article, rather than the headlines as many people do, the pollster actually conceded that the survey polled far more Democrats than Republicans and that if one adjusted for party affiliation, the result was a "tie." Remarkably, the latest CNN poll does not give us any information regarding the party affiliation or candidate preferences of those surveyed. It simply declares Biden the winner.


CBS News
CBS News also released a poll concluding that Biden won the debate. On the surface, this poll seems to avoid CNN's mistake of not telling the reader the candidate preferences of the individuals polled. Why? The poll purports to provide the opinions of "uncommitted" voters.
Well, like a good lawyer, I read the fine print, and I found that uncommitted includes voters who are truly undecided and voters who have already chosen a candidate, but who "could still change their minds." So, some of the individuals polled are already leaning towards a candidate. The poll fails to provide a breakdown of their choices.

Studies show that people tend not to change their minds this late in an election cycle. So many of these so-called uncommitted individuals are probably sold on a candidate and probably thought that candidate won the debate. Because CBS News does not reveal what portion of the uncommitted voters actually preferred a candidate or the party affiliation of those polled, it is difficult to isolate bias in this survey. Accordingly, the poll is worthless.


Drudge Report and FoxNews
I have seen several websites citing to polls on the Drudge Report and FoxNews.Com. Unlike CNN and CBS, however, these media outlets have not officially released the results of the polls. The Drudge Report poll shows that Palin won by a landslide, while the FoxNews.Com polls shows that Biden won.


This category is very easy to dissect, mainly because both polls are online surveys. First, the polls are just as bad as the CNN and CBS polls because they fail to provide information about the candidate preferences of those who participated. Also, web polls in general are highly biased and inaccurate. You have to own a computer to participate (which could exclude older or poor people). But more relevant in this instance, you have to read the particular web page that conducted the poll in order to vote. Also, it is commonly known that people often "flood" webpages that they usually do not visit in order to influence the results of online polls. Thus, these polls fail to provide random samples and are thefore easily dismissed.


So Who Really Won?
The debate was very interesting, and I think objective commentators, to the extent that such exist, would find that Palin exceeded expectations and connected better to voters in terms of her style, but that Biden was more seasoned and specific. Beyond that, the person you wanted to win probably won. So who needs the polls anyway?"

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boomshak:

MY TAKE ON WHY OBAMA IS WINNING:

I have said from the beginning that the CHANGE people want in this election is COMPETENCE.

This election will come down to Independents as Democrats and Republicans seem evenly split along partisan lines. Independents, by nature, are not political ideologues (else they would not be Indenpendents). They just want someone 1) who's views seem reasonable and 2) who projects COMPETENCE.

One the first point it is a TIE. Both Obama and McCain are running as moderates and neither seem completely nutty, so that's a wash.

On the second point, Obama is the clear winner as his campaign seems HIGHLY COMPETENT and well-tuned while McCain often seems to be just flailing about. Obama seems to be following a clearly defined strategy while McCain seems to just be "reacting".

To sum it up, Obama comes across as "PRO-ACTIVE", while McCain cokes across as "RE-ACTIVE". After 8 years of "RE-ACTIVE" Bush governance, America is tired of that.

THE PALIN EFFECT:
I think one of the major reasons Palin helps (or hurts) McCain is that she reflects upon his competence. People doubted it before the Convention, but then when she blew everyone away with her speech, even Rush (who HATES McCain) started calling him "McBrilliant". As Palin started to stumble though, she reflected badly on McCain's judgement and thus his competence.

THE BOTTOM LINE:
I think that McCain will surge some after this debate, not because of who won or lost on points, but because Palin once again reflects well on John McCain's COMPETENCE in choosing her.

Still, unless McCain runs a MUCH better campaign over the next month, Obama will likely win.

LAST WORD:
Although I disagree with Obama's politics and I think his current "moderate" transformation is complete horsesh*t, I do admire his intelligence and focus.

On the other hand, history is full of despots who were both intelligent an focused. Right now, Obama is a "foxhole convert" to moderation, but once the heat of battle is ended, he will revert back to his wild liberal ways.

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boomshak:

"McCain cokes across"

McCain COMES across - lol, freudian slip?

____________________

boomshak:

JOE BIDEN’S 14 LIES TONIGHT


1. TAX VOTE: Biden said McCain voted “the exact same way” as Obama to increase taxes on Americans earning just $42,000, but McCain DID NOT VOTE THAT WAY.


2. AHMEDINIJAD MEETING: Joe Biden lied when he said that Barack Obama never said that he would sit down unconditionally with Mahmoud Ahmedinijad of Iran. Barack Obama did say specifically, and Joe Biden attacked him for it.


3. OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING: Biden said, “Drill we must.” But Biden has opposed offshore drilling and even compared offshore drilling to “raping” the Outer Continental Shelf.”


4. TROOP FUNDING: Joe Biden lied when he indicated that John McCain and Barack Obama voted the same way against funding the troops in the field. John McCain opposed a bill that included a timeline, that the President of the United States had already said he would veto regardless of it’s passage.


5. OPPOSING CLEAN COAL: Biden says he’s always been for clean coal, but he just told a voter that he is against clean coal and any new coal plants in America and has a record of voting against clean coal and coal in the U.S. Senate.


6. ALERNATIVE ENERGY VOTES: According to FactCheck.org, Biden is exaggerating and overstating John McCain’s record voting for alternative energy when he says he voted against it 23 times.


7. HEALTH INSURANCE: Biden falsely said McCain will raise taxes on people's health insurance coverage -- they get a tax credit to offset any tax hike. Independent fact checkers have confirmed this attack is false


8. OIL TAXES: Biden falsely said Palin supported a windfall profits tax in Alaska -- she reformed the state tax and revenue system, it's not a windfall profits tax.


9. AFGHANISTAN / GEN. MCKIERNAN COMMENTS: Biden said that top military commander in Iraq said the principles of the surge could not be applied to Afghanistan, but the commander of NATO's International Security Assistance Force Gen. David D. McKiernan said that there were principles of the surge strategy, including working with tribes, that could be applied in Afghanistan.


10. REGULATION: Biden falsely said McCain weakened regulation -- he actually called for more regulation on Fannie and Freddie.


11. IRAQ: When Joe Biden lied when he said that John McCain was “dead wrong on Iraq”, because Joe Biden shared the same vote to authorize the war and differed on the surge strategy where they John McCain has been proven right.


12. TAX INCREASES: Biden said Americans earning less than $250,000 wouldn’t see higher taxes, but the Obama-Biden tax plan would raise taxes on individuals making $200,000 or more.


13. BAILOUT: Biden said the economic rescue legislation matches the four principles that Obama laid out, but in reality it doesn’t meet two of the four principles that Obama outlined on Sept. 19, which were that it include an emergency economic stimulus package, and that it be part of “part of a globally coordinated effort with our partners in the G-20.”


14. REAGAN TAX RATES: Biden is wrong in saying that under Obama, Americans won't pay any more in taxes then they did under Reagan.

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thoughtful:

10/3 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 51 , McCain 40

@boomshak

I agree with the greater parts of your thoughts.

Obama is a moderate just ask any of us Radicals. He is acceptable to most of us as he does understand and respect our point of view.

I don't agree that McCain is a moderate in foreign affairs he is more radical than Dick Cheney/Don Rumsfeld.

With regards to the polls today is going to be another bad day for John McCain.

I can't see on Tuesday on the eve of the next debate McCain witin - 6% on the average of the 5 trackers.

Palin solidified the GOP base, she has very little appeal to moderates, and centrists. I disagree with you also in that I consider that she does and already has broken the"do no harm" rule.

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Rames1980:

Boomshak:

Are you going to follow up with a post on Palin's lies?

The expectations game really set the bar low for her, allowing her to cross even though she had a Couric-style incoherent ramble when replying to the question on Cheney's attempts to dis-associate the vice-presidency from the executive.

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thoughtful:

GWU/Battleground: Obama 50, McCain 43

It's going to be over + 8% Obama on the tracker average today. I will include GWU/Battleground in tomorrow's average, although it is probably fully adjusted today.

We will soon find out if Rasmussen has stuck on +7% or moved to + 8%.

Gallup +7% at least!

Diageo/Hotline up from +5% to ?

Going to be interesting day and interesting weekend through to Tuesday's debate in the polls. I expect a wild really wild debate on Tuesday!

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