09/28-30,08; 902 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 42
If the current map holds, here are the Obama paths to the Presidency based on the current "toss-ups":
Either FL or OH and NO OTHER STATES WON puts him over the top. It's possible, but I still think these stay red. Otherwise:
- MN, CO, and NH
- MN, CO, and NV
- VA and CO
- MN and VA
- MN and NC
- MN, NV, NH, and one other state OR subtract NH and add any 5 EVs
- IN and MN
- IN and VA
- IN and CO
- IN and NC
- IN, NV, and NH
I'm sure there are a bunch of others I'm leaving out but these are some of the main ones. So basically, let's assume the strong and light blue states hold for Obama, which I believe they will. I also believe despite their "toss up" status, MN stays blue, IN and NC stay red. That said, he has so many strategies to close the deal. Either:
a)Dump all resources into FL and OH and game over. This is a risky strategy because the Republican ground machines I believe will deliver these states red no matter what.
b) Go all out on the VA/CO strategy. He's got slight leads in these states. Might be the best scenario.
c) Close the deal in MN and then push hard in either VA or CO and close NH. I think MN holds blue without major resources diverted there anyway.
d) Work off the NC strategy (tempting with the 15EVs).. but that's risky. Hard for me to imagine NC actually goes blue on Election Day despite the recent #s. So what do you guys see as the best Obama closing strategy?
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:44 AM
Wow - if you adjust sensitivity to the model to make it slightly more sensitive to the current trend, then BO is at or well above 50% across the board.
Election is far from over; as Chuck T reminds us with 34 days to go, it was 34 days ago BO was nominated, since then Palin, hurricane, R convention, JM bounce, SP interviews, economic collapse and debate. With JM still in the race - there will be allot more drama still to come. Look for a wedding, a new love interest, an evil twin, a kidnapping, a funeral and Gilligan finally almost makes it off the island....
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:50 AM
This is 3-5 point race after two weeks where everything possible went obozo's way.
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:51 AM
Epic fail boom. He's leading by twice the amount Bush was leading Kerry, and Kerry was frankly pathetic at the time. And there's this/ http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081001/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_battlegrounds
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:56 AM
Trosen - MN is staying blue trust me. I am concerned that NH is lagging, but if VA and CO hold NH b/c meaningless. BO has the resources and I believe will continue to push hard in NH, CO, VA, NV,OH, FL and NC in that order. Remember if he gets NH and CO he's at 269 - that should do it for him. And that is his fire line.
After that if he can take just one of the others - VA, NV, OH, FL or NC he wins.
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:57 AM
Hey guys, boomshak is calling it a 3-5 point race. We all believe him right? He's shown that he's completely fair and balanced, right?
There is no poll that is as biased or as wrong as you consistently are boom.
fail. yet again.
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:59 AM
It seems like Obama's best bet is to focus on VA, CO, MN, and NH (to hedge the bets). OH and FL might go but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. At this point I think he needs to keep the broad approach going. It will tax McCain's camp(energy, focus, and money), and you don't know what the map will look like in two weeks as 1magine notes. That's when you start doubling down on certian states.
OH already voting throws a bit of a wrench into it though. Advantage to the better ground game there, I think.
This just in: Palin, with McCain's help (of course!) calls Couric out on "gotcha" journalism. No word yet on whether or not Palin can define "gotcha" journalism. Either way, between claims of "gotcha" journalism and sexism, Palin claims her inferior answers are superior in their folksy feel, and thusly superior overall. At any rate, she has clearly made the case that not making sense is perfectly sensible, and will reply to any question she doesn't know the answer to with: "Gotcha!" or "I'm a lady".
Oh, and by the way, we've just learned that Biden's experience in Congress is clearly a hinderance to the Obama campaign via interview with Palin. No word yet on how McCain's (lengthier) experience effects his campaign.
News for the day:
* McCain's angry interview with the DesMoines Register yesterday.
* McCain campaign's push back against the Q poll
First it was the national polls now they are pushing back against state polls. What next? they will push back against the results on Nov 4!
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:01 AM
Might I point out that every 2-candidate race in the last 100 years in which the winner had a margin of at least 5 points was a 350+ EV landslide for the winner?
5 points nationally is huge in presidential races.
Man, there are so many polls today showing huge Obama leads that I don't know which one to post in.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:02 AM
Wait is the McCain campaign actually seriously arguing against the polls in the press?
Holy crap is that ever a bad sign for them. Usually campaigns take the "we don't look at polls, we just run the best campaign we can" public face. Bickering about poll results is a sign of desperation.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:04 AM
Uhh boomy? You do realize that 5% of registered voters is roughly 10 million people? That is it generally translates to well over 330 electoral votes. You understand that? That is a fairly clear mandate for a country who's leader has taken the largest surplus in history and created the largest deficit in history, allowed us to be attacked on our soil by terrorists, attacked and destroyed a sovereign nation on false pretenses and killed 4,000+ of our best and brightest, stripped the Justice Department, shredded the US Constitution, tortured, lied and has been an enormous international and national laughing stock - - AND STILL 30% OF THE COUNTRY SAYS, "OH YEAH, THAT GEORGE BUSH FELLOW, DOING A GREAT JOB. I'D VOTE FOR HIM AGAIN IF I COULD..." That only leaves 70% of the electorate to work with, BO is regularly pulling 50% of that group. I think that's pretty damn impressive. Clearly you don't - given your capacity for rational thought, no one is surprised.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:07 AM
"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.
Agreed this is a VERY bad tactic. Then you make the poll you lost the news of the day. Not smart, guys. Not smart.
Also kind of like boomshack. "methinks the lady doth protest too much"
PS that is 50% of the total not of the remaining 70%. To most that would/should be clear - but I'll just make sure I am.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:08 AM
That is exactly what I've been thinking for the last two weeks. When Obama was down in the polls during the RNC bounce, he just brushed it aside. Imagine where we'd be if he freaked out like McCain is doing now.
They have to fight the polls. It's like a popularity contest.. if people perceive Obama well ahead and a concensus, there are actually people out there that will pull the lever for the guy perceived to win. I was watching CNN about a month ago and a waitress in OH said this "I will vote for the next candidate to talk about jobs. The 1st guy to say the word gets my vote." Yep..those are the kinds of voters perception effects:)
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:10 AM
McCain: "These polls are laughable."
The Voice of Reason: "Actually sir, you and your campaign are laughable."
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:11 AM
Well, PA finally turned blue in the pollster map (and other maps as well ... the evidence was just too much) ... next are CO, MN and FL ...
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:14 AM
I want to see some more polling in NH, I'm getting sick of looking at a dead tie there.
Noise in DC circles - JM campaign strenuously objecting to Thursday debate on grounds the moderator is biased. Will SP pull out of debate until a new moderator is chosen? Right now I think their top picks are Sean Hannity and Fozzy Bear (SP is reportedly afraid of Kermit).
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:15 AM
I should add that the polls proabably are outliers (slightly)...but it's still a horrible strategy to argue against them in the press. Also, the point about their internal polling putting them 7 up in FL? What the hell was that? Way to make your camp look like it hasn't a clue as to what is going on; nor how to run a poll.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:16 AM
Yeah just heard that 7% - Betcha scares a bunch of college kids into volunteering across the state for BO.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:18 AM
clarifying, I meant the Q polls
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:19 AM
I love all of this talk about "Internal" polling. Guys... they don't speak to God. Campaigns polls the SAME WAY all of the major pollsters do. THEY CALL. Jesus. LOL
And Boomshak... This is a very interesting link from PEW Research. What is so terrible about a 9 percent dem ID advantage. That is Pew's estimate. Look at this and weep:
Rasmussen using a 6% advantage is a CONSERVATIVE # so Obama being up 6, I'LL TAKE IT. 7% party advantage in the ABC news poll and Obama up 4? I'll take it!
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:20 AM
Boom would have a one word response to your Lombardo graph:
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:23 AM
McCain pushback on Florida polls: “Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans."
While you can certainly make the case that FL is not as much as +8 to Obama, their poll shows it just as far away from the average as Quinnipiacs. Further the reason why Quinnipiac had Obama up by eight was that McCain was only winning the white vote by 5 (50-45), nothing to do with oversampling blacks or undersampling Cubans.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:27 AM
I'm telling you, McCain is losing control. If the perception is landslide and Dems smell blood which we are, people will swing wildly to Obama. Watch for it. I've said for months this is Reagan all over again, people were unsure, Mondale even lead post convention. But then Regan took the national stage at the debate, people were like WHO IS THIS GUY, oh, he's not so bad, we like him. It's over.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:28 AM
Good God that's a great grpah. Ripe for third party. I know, everyone thinks this at the end of an election year and it never happens. A center right party would do well as the elephants are diving into the sea. Anybody know if this has precident (diving ID)?
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:29 AM
Time is out with another poll showing Obama at 50%, ahead of McCain by 7%. White women are the reason, how about Sarah :-(?
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:32 AM
I too have been echoing Reagan Redux to everyone who will hear it. And I've been mostly laughed off. The fundamentals of this election have been constant throughout. Obama was a virtual unknown. It took time for people to come around. The epic fail of the Bush administration is John McCain's unshakeable albatross. Not to mention, Obama is one of the most gifted politicians since, well, Reagan himself.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:37 AM
What I find interesting about the McCain campaign pushing back against the Quinnipiac polls is that now they're citing their internal numbers, which I believe is something they've never done before. When they held their conference call on the Wash Post/ABC poll last week, one of the aides even said they don't share internal numbers.
fyi Portland, I think you mean Carter. Mondale was 1984.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:38 AM
McSame has to be worried about Florida because although no other poll has showed Obama with this lead, virtually each poll has the race tighter and tighter. 1% or 2% is nothing near safe.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:42 AM
What's worse than sharing them is not sharing them with any details. We're 7 up. Trust us. Riiiiight. Probably a poll of cuban and white men 50-60.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:44 AM
Wow! That poll from Time showing O 50 M 43 is going to cause a lot of lost sleep for the McCain campaign.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:45 AM
CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation will release new state polls out of Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia later Wednesday!
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:47 AM
I agree. This would be a ripe time for Ron Paul to step in, if he really wants the Libertarian Party to rise.
Obama on CNN now sounding VERY presidential.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:53 AM
From the McCain camp, "Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans."
That must be why the Auld Sod was out blustering in Iowa yesterday. Their "internals" must show him up by something like 20% in Iowa. I mean what with all that over sampling of white people being perpetrated by the external polls and evil MSM.
@boomfail, Obama always sounds Presidential.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:54 AM
McCain has to do this to at least shore up some degree of hope with his supporters. If they look at these polls and start to lose enthusiasm and/or give up, he's toast. Obama would be doing more or less the same thing. Denying he's losing and saying the "internals" look good. Although in Fl rather than saying he's winning by 7, It would seem to make more sense to say "We know it will be a close race in places like FL, but we feel good about our chances there." Rather than further fire up the Obama supporters there to work even harder. Then again, little McCain has done or said lately has made much sense.
I wrote last night:
I think the bar is so low for Palin that she has essentially already won the debate.
Biden will be even if he doesn't make a gaffe. (Fat chance).
So, I expect some Obama attrition.
But, then when Frontline airs on October 14, I expect significant McCain attrition; most of the Obama problems will have been discounted.
And, in response to the just announced Billy Joel/Bruce Springsteen concert on October 16, I expect some bounce.
So, I would say, it will be very interesting, and I very much doubt that McCain will overtake, but, never say never.
In any case, I believe that McCain/Palin if elected, will rival GWB/cheney for worst government of US ever. So, if they actually do get in, to quote someone we know... "... this sucker is going down...".
Posted on September 30, 2008 11:06 PM
Since VA is in question, I am actually thinking about going into the field and working for someone using my own two legs and hands for the first time in years and years and years.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:55 AM
@obama the nutch
let's see if he comes out of his nitch.
i dare say, he is constitutionally unable to lead by sticking his neck out of his safe zone.
FYI: i spell this correctly:>@
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:57 AM
If Obama wins FL this election will be over before the polls close out here in CA.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:58 AM
I don't know how anyone could read this and not know deep down inside, whether you are liberal or conservative, that it will take a leader, a REAL leader to bring this country back to greatness.
Read this people.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:02 PM
If Obama wins FL, McCain will have lost so badly they'll probably take away his Senate seat.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:03 PM
Someone made an excellent point comparing the 1980 Reagan campaign. It was a change election and Reagan was perceived a s right-wing lunatic with an itchy nuclear trigger-finger (which at least to to the former, he kinda was). But after the RNC and the 1st few debates he put those fears to rest as people saw him as a nice, balanced guy they could trust. That is exactly what is happening now with Obama after the 1st debate. (Even though on the merits of pure "debating," it was at best a draw for Obama, IMO) Now, this will NOT be a landslide of 1980 proportions... but the similarities are certainly there.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:04 PM
nick-socal. i'm in socal too. my election night party will be awesome when the election is called at 8pm PDT :) !!
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:05 PM
according to my rss reader (bloglines), pollster's rss feed has not updated since saturday. anybody else have a problem with the feed?
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:08 PM
Don't count on starting that party before the West coast results come in. Remember in 2000 FL was called for Gore before it magically got "too close to call." Like I said before.. we are working like hell to put FL in play. We are making McCain sweat losing it. But to make it actually go blue and stay blue? A tall order.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:13 PM
I think this election is in the bag for Obama. With Colorado going blue all he needs to take is minnesota and hes won. Thats not even mentioning the possibility of OH, FL, VA or NC turning blue this year.
Im going door knocking in TX this weekend!!!
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:14 PM
I think many of us would like to hear more about the Hispanic community in FL. I know they have trended Republican in past elections. How do you see the race there?
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:15 PM
zotz - The Cubano community trends Republican 'usually'... not the whole hispanic community. I put usually in quotes because Obama's stance on Cuba is enticing them away from McCain.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:19 PM
If you really think that McCain and the Repugs are not that concerned about the polls, a new ad featuring Wright, Rezko and Ayers just hit the airwaves. Repugs really are one horse ponies in the end!
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:20 PM
FYI...jamesia... The Palin comments refer to "gotcha soundbites" and not "journalism." BIG DIFFERENCE.
Yes, Florida was called by media for Gore based on exit polls. Yes, Florida had vote count issues, but that did not account for the entire sampling error of those polls. That is why so many caution about reading way too much in polls. Even election day (ultimate poll) with the entire population (as opposed to a small sample) is not always definitive right away.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:26 PM
FL will go blue because of 2 words: Housing, Seniors
The Rep. House has basically stated that they prefer that the thousands of homeowners in FL lose their homes. Right or not its suicide
Second seniors will over react just like the stock market did, when they see that their retirement has lost 7-8%
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:27 PM
Wright, Rezko, and Ayers should be on the airwaves. A not so gentle reminder that Obama still needs to answer to his long-time close associations with these particular "thugs."
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:28 PM
Obama has already denounced Wright, he had limited connections to Ayers and they were on a schoolboard that conservatives also sat on. Rezko is a nobody and any connection he has to Obama is tenuous at best. This is pure smear from the McCain and a desperate attempt to distract from any of the real issues.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:32 PM
zotz.. I can tell you that Obama has made definite inroads with Hispanic voters. With that said, it's still a solidly Republican base. Anything perceived as being anywhere on the same side of the political spectrum as Castro/communism is completely rejected by Cuban-American voters. However, some of the more draconian Republican measures like denying visitation and some commerce to families separated by the lack of relations that the Bush Administration has refused to let up on have created a small opening for Obama, which he has jumped on. So, he has made a small dent. But don't expect a major shift in the South Florida voting demographics from the last 2 elections. But even a minor nudge can help the Obama campaign.
KipTin you guys are desperate. It's over.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:33 PM
Retired seniors are probably not fully involved in the stock market as they are already retired and most have more accessible stable accounts.
Specific source for stating "The Rep. House has basically stated that they prefer that the thousands of homeowners in FL lose their homes." Are you referring to the "bankruptcy" change that the Black Caucus wants included and was excluded? Or the funds being directed to fund for use by groups like ACORN and Urban League and was excluded? Or something else?
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:34 PM
Evolve, don't count on all the seniors coming Obama's way. Still a lot of disgrunteld Hillary voters (and others) who drank the not-so-subtle race-baiting kool aid (doing that dirty work so McCain didn't have to).
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:35 PM
Obama gets it. Bill Clinton right now on CNN campaigning for Obama. Gore and Kerry didn't use him. FAIL. GOOD JOB OBAMA. SMART move. The man can SPEAK whether you like him or not. And people love him.
This ad basically means there is no October surprise and the polling is accurate and McSHAME is toast!!!!
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:36 PM
If McCain loses, does that mean Kiptin and Boomshak are both out of a job?
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:37 PM
Over four weeks to go until election and PortlandRocks says "It's over." Now that is a form of optimistic desperation, like clinging to certain polls and dismissing others.
Bottom line: EVERYONE knew that the Wright, Rezko, Ayers would be a topic in the general election. You should read the Chicago Tribune and find out that questions on Obama's associations with these guys have actually not ever disappeared.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:38 PM
Im not sure if Obama should use the Clintons. I think he should be aiming for a totally 'new' kind of presidency away from the established, bush-clinton-bush-clinton philosophy.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:39 PM
If all you have is old news then the contest is over. If there is something new, not based on innuendo, rumors or people cutting deals to save their skin, the time to see it is before the public makes their mind up. You sound like you are grasping at straws.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:42 PM
If one thinks that Obama has "limited" connections to Ayers, then you are not aware of the Chicago Annenberg Project. Check it out.
Denouncing Wright is not going to erase 20 years of association with a guy Obama called his mentor.
Obama also had +20 years associated with Rezko (now convicted felon) who Obama also called a mentor. Now Rezko is in the news because he is supposed to be sentenced on Oct. 28 and is reported in talks with feds to reduce his sentence by providing info on others.
What do all FOUR have in common? Chicago political machine. Not a label that Obama wants to advertise.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:45 PM
DaveAustralia I respectfully disagree. Bill is still VERY popular as is Hillary. It won't hurt. They will be out for Obama in full swing this month.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:46 PM
KipTin, IT's OVER. Look at the trends, look at the polls, Americans are now familiar with and comfortable with a Barack Obama presidency and won't be fooled this time. It's OVER.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:47 PM
8 national polls have been released today (the 6 posted here plus a Time poll and a Democracy Corps poll). All of them show Obama ahead of McCain.
Over the past week, Obama has campaigned in FL, NC (with Biden), VA (with Biden), MI (with Biden), CO, NV, and WI. Tomorrow, he campaigns again in MI. Saturday, he campaigns in PA with Springsteen. Last Saturday, Hillary campaigned for Obama in MI. Today, Bill Clinton campaigns in FL for Obama. Also today, Michelle Obama campaigns in CO and MO. Upcoming is a Biden-Hillary tour of PA, beginning in Scranton.
During this same time period, McCain has had 1 joint appearance with Palin in OH, a disastrous visit to IA yesterday (see his angry interview with a newspaper there), and a visit to MO (today).
What is McCain's strategy? Does he have one? Why was he in IA in the first place, given that it is likely out of his reach?
KipTin keep dreaming of a big scandal. You don't think this has ALL been vetted by the media through a lengthy primary? You're desperate man.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:49 PM
Old News? Innuendo and Rumors? Hardly. You guys are delusional if you thought that Obama's Chicago connections would not reappear in this General Election.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:53 PM
You see Kiptin, Boomshak et al, we can RESPECTFULLY disagree about something. Thats something many republicans have lacked the ability to do. Anyway onto my main point, whilst I like that there for Obama and I thought Bill was a great president (and hilary would have been a great president) I just want to see a move forward but yes I guess your right that Obama does need them campaigning and it is a good thing for Obama that they are campaigning. In particular I think Bill was great on the daily show the other night.
So Obama has a 20 year association with Rezko? Yeah right, and what about McCain's 90% voting record with GWB!!! Who do you think the American people care about more? Rezko or Bush?
KipTin you are pathetic. Now your candidate will look even more pathetic draggin up old gossip stories. Shall we look into the Keating 5? Shall we look into McCain's political pastor calling the Catholics the great whore? How about a commerical showing McCain voting against MLK day or his SUPPORT of the confederates in SC.
Pure utter JOKE. This is why McCain is losely badly in every poll, states swining wildly to Obama, We've SIMPLY HAD ENOUGH.
NOW GO AWAY. FOR GOD SAKES WOULD YOUR PARTY PLEASE NOT TOUCH ANYTHING AS YOU HAVE COMPLETELY SET THIS COUNTRY BACK 20 years.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:54 PM
but the media is adamant about not letting this get out or that whatshername made obama give his lonely little speech.
he was a nutch, looking for his nitch safe and sound in the illinois legislature, no sticking out his cowardly neck. not as if he had a senate seat in congress on the line. not as if it was a systemic belief to make him go camp out with sheehan and walk with her. HECK NO!!
that would have been daring and idealistic and courageous.
nope, obama the nutch for prez!!
you go get em sunny, but carefully, parse your words, split hairs, shadow box the past instead of lead for the future.
Listen to the desperation! Look for it!:) LOL
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:55 PM
FYI: During the primary it was often stated that this would again appear in the General Election. And now Rezko is a convicted felon soon to be sentenced. The Chicago Annenberg Project has been unearthed. And Wright was never going away, even after Obama's "race" speech which few now remember.
I am not dreaming of a big scandal. I am a pragmatist that knew this was coming. Why are you guys so surprised?
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:56 PM
Obama's race speech was one of the greatest speeches ever given in American political history. I dont think its going away any time soon, in fact I think it will be played for many years to come
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:59 PM
What is coming? McCain puts out a commercial? SO WHAT. It will be seen as desperation, mark my words...
Great analysis from Nate: McCain's TOAST.
Quinnipiac broke its sample into two halves: pre-debate and post-debate. For all intents and purposes, these are two separate surveys, and so that's how I list them. Obama gained ground in the post-debate versions in all three states (OH, PA, and FL).
More importantly, however, the polls represent significant gains for Obama since the last time Quinnipiac had been in the field in early September, particularly in Florida, where he had been 7 points behind before.
The McCain camp is going a little crazy over these polls. Usually, when a campaign does something like that, it's worried about morale. But do their complaints have any basis in fact?
Quinnipiac's polls have shown a slight Democratic lean this cycle -- they've been 1-2 points more favorable to Dems than contemporaneous polls of their states. From what I can tell, their head of polling (Peter Brown) has fairly conservative politics, so I don't know that it can be called a partisan lean. But that is the side that the polls have tended to end up upon nevertheless.
At the same time, they are highly-rated polls, use large sample sizes, and have plenty of rich trendlines for comparison. Is it possible that they are outliers to a certain degree? Possibly -- maybe even probably -- but as I intimated yesterday, with Obama's surge nationally it was inevitable that we were eventually going to get an oh sh*t set of state polling for Obama. There clearly seems to have been some movement toward Obama in Florida, as well as in Pennsylvania, where the Morning Call tracker has had him gaining a point literally every day since its inception. Ohio, I am somewhat less convinced about, but InsiderAdvantage also gives him the lead there (as well as a 6-point lead in Virginia).
The most critical point may be that the McCain campaign now faces something of a Hobson's choice. In terms of states where they had hoped to play offense, Michigan began to break away from them a week or so ago, and now Pennsylvania -- which had initially reacted well to Sarah Palin -- seems to be doing the same. But if all they're doing is playing defense, that gives Obama so many scratch-off tickets -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and perhaps Indiana, Nevada, and Missouri -- that it's essentially inevitable that he'll get lucky in one or more of those states, several of which he already appears to have the lead in.
My gut instinct if I were the McCain campaign is that it might be time to pick one of Pennsylvania and Michigan -- whichever state my internals liked better -- and consolidate my offense there. McCain certainly can't be spending time in Iowa, where he spent much of yesterday, but where he has never led a single public poll against Obama.
You miss something
"Wright, Rezko, and Ayers should be on the airwaves "
Actually they have never been out of the airwaves
Guess what Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly along with their buddies on Fox News still talk about them on a daily basis.There's obviously a part of voters that are still listening to those stories over and over on Fox news but seemingly that doesn't give any boost whatsoever to McP"al"inocchio ticket
If you follow surveys closely you will realize that his last political gimmick doesn't work, now his approval rating is getting lower and lower.I promise you if he launches an ad featuring rev Wright/Rezko etc that will backfire straight to his face cause the public might see it as a desperate move to change the subject from the economic crisis that affects their daily pocketbook to something they already know about
(FYI: McP"al"inocchio already run an ad featuring Rezko 2 weeks or so ago ...)
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:00 PM
See, what you are missing, my friend is that even if the Rezko, Ayers and Wright stuff comes back out, McCain has already damaged his credibility with his lying commercials and his make-stuff-up politics.
This whole thing started to turn to Obama when McCain lost his credibility. Who is going to believe anything he says that isnt voting for him already?
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:05 PM
The problem with "hail mary's" is you can only throw so many before everyone realizes your offense if a joke.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:07 PM
I actually think that alot of the polls have shown a disadvantage to the democrats. The democrats now have far more members than the republicans and whilst trying to remain 'bi-partisan' many polls havent shown that. For example they estimate 300,000 new voters have registered in VA and that they favor Obama on a 2-1 basis. http://hamptonroads.com/2008/09/firsttime-voters-taking-lead-virginias-new-registrations
Obama to win in a reaganesque landslide
Old gossip? Really? What is your definition of "old" as well as "gossip?"
Funny... comparing Obama's contemporary Chicago "roots" to the Keating Five (1989). And BTW you guys do keep bringing up the K-5 and I keep reminding you that four of those five were Democrats.
What else? I have no idea who McCain's political pastor is, but remember Obama also has another longtime religious mentor Father Phleger. McCain also publicly apologized for voting against MLK day. Why do you think he went to Selma as well as spoke on the anniversary of MLK in Memphis (where Obama was AWOL).
And also his apology for dismissing the Confederate Flag in South Carolina as "not an issue" (which is NOT supporting the Confederates.) Geesh. Obamanation sure plays fast and loose with facts.
And although stated before... I am not a Republican.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:09 PM
I have never watched Fox News.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:11 PM
Well im actually a conservative, I voted for the conservatives in my own country(Australia in case anyone hadnt guessed haha) but now studying in TX im supporting Obama, so im not exactly some socialist hack. But I am wondering if yur not republican then what are you?
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:13 PM
You should watch Fox news. If only to see what the crazies have to say.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:14 PM
who gives a damn what you think.... You cant vote anyway.
McCain will win this election and it will be because America realises the real issues going on. FOR ****S SAKE!!!! Obama supported someone who wanted to bomb america.
You liberals are scumbag america hating pieces of crap sandwiches.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:27 PM
yup I cant vote, but im campaiging for Obama and i have made more than enough votes for him. Plus your a knob
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:32 PM
Looks like the Dem 527s are going after McCain's Keating affiliations..finally.
Posted on October 1, 2008 1:53 PM
McCain and Palin have NO economic plan and NO plan to end the war in Iraq. Iraq has a 79 million dollar surplus while we have huge budget and trade deficits. A Republican is a Republican. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on October 1, 2008 2:07 PM
McCain is not going to win Minnesota. Obama and Biden need to keep our states blue, and win Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, where they have leads, and they will win the election.
If on election night you see that Obama has won Virginia, as he has a good chance of doing, then he will win the Presidency. The Virginia votes will be counted before Colorado on election night because Virginia is in the eastern time zone.
Obama has a very good chance to win the swing states of Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, AND the suprise win could be North Carolina where independants favor Obama. Missouri and Indiana are possible wins for Obama as well.
What about Florida and Ohio? It would be nice to win at least one of them, especially Florida. A Florida or Ohio victory would assure an Obama win. If Obama wins both, then it will be a landslide victory for Obama.
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on October 1, 2008 2:27 PM
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