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US: Obama 47, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/17-19)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/17-19,08; 789 LV 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 42

 

Comments
PortlandRocks:

1 hr 13 min. to RAS VA poll. Then at 6PM EST a bunch of RAS polls including NC, FL, OH, CO, and NV! This will put an end to any "slide" argument if Obama holds are increases his lead in these BG states.

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Indiana4Obama:

Obama holding a good 5 pt lead...the key is keeping it in this ballpark over the next couple of weeks.

We'll see how the Powell endorsement and the 1/2 hour prime time helps.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Republican Party ID: +1
Democratic Party ID: -1

McCain: +1
Obama: -1

This underlines the importance of GOTV.

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douglasfactors:

McCain gains in Rasmussen and Hotline, Obama gains in R2K and Zogby, no change in Battleground, and some old polls drop out of the RCP average.

Yawn.

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Adrian B:

The polls are coming together and showing it's a +5/6 point race for Obama. Always add a couple onto Ras take a couple off Kos.

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PortlandRocks:

Indeed. YAWN. Obama's 5 point lead is a MINIMUM in my eyes. I think people will be in for a big surprise come election day. These state polls are NOT in McCain's favor and some BG's FAR from within the margin of error. Colorado and VA have pulled away from McCain with Nevada nearing this status as well. Who cares about OH and FL... Bonus at this point.

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mandalorianarmy:

Florida starts voting today and Obama is making a huge push here to get us all to vote early.

I will be casting my vote for Obama today!

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jonny87:

@PortlandRocks

i hope your right.

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PortlandRocks:

I wish EVERY damn state would goto a mail only election. This would help to prevent fraud as your address has to be verified. It encourages people to verify their registration always so they get their ballot as they cannot be forwarded. I am in OR. We have this system. No lines. Last night I could sit down with a beer, vote slowly, read about every initiative, research using the internet, etc. There is no way you could argue any system is better than this!

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PortlandRocks:

jonny87 I am right. Bush had a polling average UNDER 2% in 2004 heading into election day. If Obama is at 4% average come election day he will have DOUBLE the chance of winning that Bush did per polling. I would feel pretty good about that. Plus these national polls are POPULAR vote polls, not electoral college polls. Do you see ONE state poll giving you concern?:)

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mirrorball:

Speaking of early voting. A professor at George Mason University has posted this running tally of early voting figures. I stumbled across it on either Politico or Salon.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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jonny87:

whats the deal with CO? why arent mccain and obama bothering to travel there?

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Trosen:

Voted in Miami today. AA/Early voting turnout is explosive. New paper ballot system is massively complicated though and there were a bunch of problems already. 2 of the 3 computers they used to confirm/process people crashed within 10 minutes of the polling place opening. the massive printer they use to print the ballot stalled. Lines will be long.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

PR,

You can be sure that, if elected, Obama will be doing everything in his power to get SOS's to institute vote-by-mail in every state. This election is only phase I of our little "community organizing" project. When we're done, voting will be a snap for everyone, and the GOP will have to make a major shift to the center or face a generation in the minority.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@ThatMarvelousApe

How awesome would that be. No more of this vote fraud stupidity. The only problem I see is how do you include people that don't have permanent addresses or who live in different states. I'm not familiar with how someplace like OR handles that but it does sound like a small technical challenge to me.

Not that I think vote-by-mail is a bad idea it just might take some refining.

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jonny87:

mirrorball,

georgia has been updated once again

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

early voting now accounts for 21% of votes cast in 2004

AA turnout currently 35.6% compared to 25% in 2004 CNN exits.

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tar_heel:

This poll (like Zogby) has to be taken with a grain of salt. Apparently party ID changed in reps favor, D40, R37, so the tightening in this particular poll may be a result of methodology only. In any event, it's no more realistic than Daily Kos. We're looking at a 5-point race with some daily fluctuations, down from 7-8 points a week ago. The state polls will tell a lot

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Some people are predicting that Obama's massive advantage in early voting will swing the exit polls slightly in McCain's favor on election day. Look for GOPers to be rejoicing and Democrats to be pissing their pants on the afternoon of 11/4, only to have the race reflect the polls when the numbers start coming in. I am certain a good time will be had by all.

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mysticlaker:

I think Colorado is done for Obama and all internal polling for Obama and McCain must show this. It's the firewall in the west. I think at the end of this week you'll see a western swing through NV, NM, CO, and maybe ending back in MO again.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

FLASHBACK: http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

RealClearPolitics predicted the following:

"We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President."

It just goes to show that cherrypicking polls and distorting reality is a pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. McCain benefits from a lazy electorate predicting an Obama landslide. He needs the electorate to reflect LV1. If people feel a sense of urgency, it will instead reflect RV and he is looking at a route.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

AngryDwarf,

Presumably, you would still have limited precincts for the homeless and mobile.

mysticlake,

Palin is spending the day in CO to turn out the vote in Colorado Springs, so I suspect McCain still thinks he can pull it off. We will know more when Ras releases his numbers.

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Trosen:

Whether he thinks he can pull it off or not he needs to try.

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mysticlaker:

@angry:

I agree they still have some "hope" there, but I don't think mccain has been there is weeks.

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cinnamonape:

MarvelousApe:

Wouldn't this all depend on when the SoS releases the results of the absentee/early voting. If they release them initially it would show a huge Obama result...but if they aded them in later in the evening it would indicate the opposite. IIRC I've seen both patterns depending upon the County/State.

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Trosen:

I'm pretty sure cinnamon is right and Election Night exit polling includes abentee and early voters.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

cinnamonape,

The SoS won't release absentee/early voting numbers until the polls close. So if a large segment of Obama's voters do early voting, we will likely see media exit polls in the mid-afternoon that overstate McCain's support. This will be followed by much rejoicing on the right ala Kerry 2004 and probably a few hundred suicide attempts on the left. This is not really a matter of importance, but if it does happen, it will be fun to watch.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Of course, I could be mistaken.

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jonny87:

when was the last time obama swinged through the west?

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mirrorball:

Biden just spent, or is spending, two or three days in Colo. Not sure if Obama has any immediate plans for a trip.

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cinnamonape:

I think I saw that both Biden and Obama were to make a visit to Colorado later this week.

On a more technical note. Why do people keep saying that the State polls "lag behind" the National polls. It would seem that the State polls would be more influenced by local campaigning activity and ads, and would actually show trends that might be longer term (from much earlier polls from the same pollster). Thus a poll might show narrowing at the national level, but a State poll might show a large increase simply due to the distance from the previous poll for that state.

Wouldn't a better comparison be with contemporaneous polls made in the State v. Nationally at the same time...both previously and with the most recent pair?

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BridgeportJoe:

Palin is spending the day in CO to turn out the vote in Colorado Springs, so I suspect McCain still thinks he can pull it off. We will know more when Ras releases his numbers.

First Read had a good point -- we've seen some pro-Republican surprises here in the recent past. Strickland was outpolling Allard for most of the fall in 2002, and Allard ended up winning by a few points. Personally, I think that was due to GOP advantages that no longer exist (a better turnout operation, significant registration edge, a pro-Republican national climate), but I can't blame people for thinking that if McCain can close his national deficit to 1-2 points, he can upset Obama in the state.

But if you are McCain, you concentrate almost everything on this state and Virginia. Obama's easiest path to victory is Kerry + IA + NM + one of CO or VA. He's got to think that if he wins VA, it will be because of factors that means he's already won FL and NC. And ditto CO and NV, MO, and OH.

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jonny87:

mirrorball,

i can understand one side sending the vp to a state to keep it ticking over, to maintain the status quo(presumably a lead), but ive no idea why both campaigns would kind of half compete in a state.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

"On a more technical note. Why do people keep saying that the State polls "lag behind" the National polls."

This is just one of those things that is said that has no basis in any data or reality.

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Mike A.:

so Rasmussen has 52-45 lead for Obama in CO. :)

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SoloBJ:

IF Obama didn't make the "spread the wealth" comment, we wouldn't be seeing Joe the Plumber" on the news nor would McCain have had an outlet to call Obama a socialist. Without that, what would McCain have been left with to talk about at this point?

I think that comment by Obama is an ironic mistake on his part and had he not said it, I think he would be better off than he is now. Hopefully, it will be short lived and not come back to haunt him.

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KipTin:

I support mail-in ballots, but...

I take it PortlandRocks meant addresses were "verified" because ballots are mailed to the addresses... but these are mailing addresses, of which many are P.O. Boxes. So not really fail-proof in terms of physical residency.

Actual verification is done by county auditors... signatures are supposed to be verified/matched with updated voter registration records. If that voter registration database is not good and/or not easily accessible, then could be systemic failures with potential for both voter fraud and voter disenfranchisement.

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Keep VA Red:

how does Oregon keep people from committing fraud with its mail-only ballots? It seems too easy to steal them from someone's mailbox and just mail them back en masse. People steal stuff from the mail all the time for identity theft. Why wouldn't they do it for election theft too?

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"On a more technical note. Why do people keep saying that the State polls "lag behind" the National polls."

ThatMarvelousApe: "This is just one of those things that is said that has no basis in any data or reality."

That's not true. Then nation is being polled an average of six times a day. Even most battleground states are not being polled every day.

We can't tell if the Powell endorsement, for example, is having an effect at the state level till after the important states are polled, hence the 'lag' in state numbers.

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JCK:

I think the state polls "lag" only in the sense that national polls are taken daily, and state polls less frequently.

When Obama started his climb in the polls about a month ago, we first saw the trend in the national tracking polls, and only (days) later did we see leads appear and/or grow in FL, VA, CO, NC, etc.

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tar_heel:

Agreed, SoloBJ. That was the one moment in the campaign where I felt like tearing my hair out. If McCain comes back to win this thing, that one comment will be widely regarded as the turning point. I wish Obama would point out to the American people that he was just stating the obvious in referring to progressive taxation, a concept that both he and McCain endorse. After all, why wouldn't we have a flat tax if part of our tax philosophy was not to "spread the wealth" around?

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Keep VA Red:

@Solo

I don't think it will be short-lived because it shows who he truly is. Like McCain said at his rally, it's the first honest answer anyone has gotten out of the guy in two years!

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jonny87:

SoloBJ,

i could not agree more. bad bad gaffe

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Thatcher:

@jonny87 -

those GA numbers are AWESOME! If turnout % is similar (maybe 2-3% higher) than 2004 - that means a total of about 4.5 million voters will vote in GA this election. Doing the math, already more than 15% have already voted - and the AA vote is currently about 5% larger of the pie than in 2004.

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tar_heel:

keep VA red--for info on who McCain "truly is," read his bio in the recent issue of Rolling Stone. I'm not sure you want to go there.

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Keep VA Red:

@tar heel

A flat tax is not progressive. That's the point of it. Under a flat tax, everyone pays the same % of their income over a certain amount. The only progressive feature of it is that the first X dollars of everyone's income is exempt from taxation.

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1magine:

RAS: 52-45 in CO

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1magine:

Sorry make that VA

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DTM:

On Colorado:

McCain cannot afford to give up on Colorado, but it is a problem for him to make a personal swing there when he also needs to be blitzing the eastern states he is defending.

On state polls lagging national polls:

As far as I know this is solely because of more sporadic polling in states, meaning it is not that voter preference in the states actually takes more time to change that voter preference nationally, but rather that the state polls needed to register any such change come out more slowly. And national polls are not perfect leading indicators anyway, because the distribution of national support can shift over time.

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Mike A.:

where VA link?

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jonny87:

1magine,

where are these CO numbers from???

not from the other day right?

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Mike A.:

CO was released today on Ras

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Mike A.:

opps maybe friday :)

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jonny87:

ill take them VA numbers

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KipTin:

Regarding the Hotline Poll... it seems that some of you did not read the narrative--

"Obama's 5% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release is his smallest advantage in the tracker since the poll conducted 10/5-7.

- After leading white LVs by just 2% as recently as 8/10, McCain has now held a 9% margin for three consecutive days.

- The enthusiasm gap between the candidates is now 16%. 68% of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastically supporting the Dem nominee, while 52% of McCain supporters say the same. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/12, the gap was 21% -- with 65% enthusiastically for Obama and just 44% enthusiastically for McCain."

--------

This correlates with info from Rasmussen poll...

"Obama’s lead has been in the four to six point range on each of those eight days.

This suggests that the race may be tightening a bit. Prior to the past week, Obama had enjoyed a five to eight point advantage for several weeks."
-----

In addition to "Joe the Plumber" acting as an invaluable tool to discuss "spreading the wealth"... the ACORN issue is probably also helping McCain.

Today's Rasmussen poll on ACORN--
"Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters say they have been following news stories about the group. Only 10% say they have not followed news about ACORN at all.

Among those who say they are following news stories about ACORN Very Closely, belief that the group is deliberately registering illegal voters and that Obama or his campaign is affiliated with it exceed 60%."

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tar_heel:

Keep VA Red:

It seems that you have misunderstood my point. My argument was simply that McCain and Obama do not differ as fundamentally as the latest Rep. ads suggests. A progressive tax rate is one that spreads the wealth around. We've had one of those for ages, and both major candidates favor it. So if you don't want to "spread the wealth around," vote for a libertarian candidate or a Republican who favors a flat tax.

As it is, Obama's tax hike would be three percent of net income over $250,000. That's hardly a major policy shift that spreads the wealth around.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Keep

So is that the same rally where he had 75,000 people?

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tar_heel:

Keep VA Red:

It seems that you have misunderstood my point. My argument was simply that McCain and Obama do not differ as fundamentally as the latest Rep. ads suggests. A progressive tax rate is one that spreads the wealth around. We've had one of those for ages, and both major candidates favor it. So if you don't want to "spread the wealth around," vote for a libertarian candidate or a Republican who favors a flat tax.

As it is, Obama's tax hike would be three percent of net income over $250,000. That's hardly a major policy shift that spreads the wealth around.

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Chester:

@ Thatcher

you;re looking at the Oct 13 poll; new one coming. I expect about 7%; I think Obama will soften slightly.

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Indiana4Obama:

Is that really the VA number? That's a 7-pt improvement for OBama compared to their VA Poll last week.

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political_junki:

BASED ON RAS OBAMA HAS 10!!!!! POINT LEAD IN VA :))) This is up 7!! points from the 10/12 poll

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1magine:

My apologies the site said today but the link goes to Friday and it was CO.

Sorry.

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jonny87:

carzy VA numbers

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1magine:

THIS IS THE VA NUMBERS:

Monday, October 20, 2008
Email a Friend Email to a Friend

Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

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Indiana4Obama:

Wow...Huge, huge number for Obama in Virginia. Especially since Ras has shown the smallest VA spread of any other state pollster.

Mccain and Palin will undoubtedly be spending LOTS of time there over the next 2 weeks.

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orange24:

THANK YOU THATCHER-
I was so hoping those Ras VA numbers would be good news - and they are!

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drdr:

Obama +10 in VA in Ras. Of course most of that support is from the communist North VA, not the "real" Virginia in the South.

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Chester:

HOLY CRAP IT IS THE RIGHT POLL!!!!

10% ON RAS!!

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DecaturMark:

Ras

VA

O 54
M 44

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Thatcher:

@drdr -

LOL!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Thatcher

Ooh that is going to sting. Winning Virginia makes up for a lot of electoral college sin if you know what I mean.

The path to victory is paved in blue...

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PortlandRocks:

WOW it's OVER. 10% in Virginia! WOW.

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jonny87:

thats one half of the firewall looking good, 6 hours until we see CO

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political_junki:

I think the 7 point jump is effect of McSame campaigning there. Until he hadnt started campaining VA things were going smoothly :)

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Indiana4Obama:

You would think that the Powell endorsement only solidifies VA for Obama, and I'm assuming the full effect of Powell isn't included in that polling.

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1magine:

10 F-IN POINTS IN VA!!!!!

I hear the church bells in the distance growing louder. I hear the solitary man dig into the frozen Earth. I see the sun rising over the mountains, and I once again believe. Once more I have hope.

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BOOMFAIL:

THANK YOU VIRGINIA!!!!!! (Even "real" Virgina) :)

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zen:


RE: spread the wealth comment

I'm quite shocked by this comment,too.
even i'm favoring the progressive tax program, the way he expressed sounds very odd to me.
I don't know where he got this expression.
even as an obama supporter, i myself have resistence to this expression.
now, the final argument from Maccain campaign is this... and it is more resonating than ayers attack.
I wish, collin powells endorsement can offset this gaffe... I also think he has to explain this comment to people in any context....
Because even I want to listen to his explanation. My capitalisist identity is quite disturbed.

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1magine:

Our long National Nightmare is almost at an end.

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fed:

without VA mcCain´s path to 270 EV is almost 0%

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Inkan1969:

Yowza.

Last week:

CO: Obama 52%
McCain 45%

NV: Obama 50%
McCain 45%

This week

VA: Obama 54%
McCain 44%

And these are RASMUSSEN polls. The polls that are the least unstable.

It really looks like Virginia is solidifying in Obama's favor, along with Colorado and Nevada. Those states plus NM, IA and the Kerry states were the Obama firewall. Now let's work on the Obama landslide.

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mirrorball:

Does that include the "real" Virginia?

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Indiana4Obama:

I'd like to see Obama spend a lot of time in VA and Colorado over the next 2 weeks.

Maybe 1 visit to PA to shore up that state, 1 more to MN to shore up that state, a couple of visits to NH to counter what happened during the primary, and the rest in MO/VA/CO/FL/OH/NC.

I wouldn't mind seeing him back here in Indiana, but I don't expect it.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Where is boomshak to tell us what an outlier this is? Something isn't right here.

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boomshak:

BIZARRE:

Rasmussen has Obama's NATIONAL LEAD shrinking from 6 to 4 yesterday, but his VA lead exploding to +10.

Strange things are afoot.

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hou04:

VIRGINIA! VIRGINIA! VIRGINIA!

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OneAngryDwarf:

Oh good I was getting worried...

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KipTin:

CNN also poll showing tightening race from earlier Obama 53-McCain 45 to Obama 51-McCain 46. Obama lead +8 down to +5. Again correlating with daily tracking polls.

Possible reason--
Would McCain mostly like carry out Bush policies?
Previous CNN poll: 56 Yes-43 No
Today's CNN poll: 49 Yes-50 No

Now that is significant.

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tar_heel:

I love those VA numbers--but will caution that the actual interviews took place on Oct. 16, the day after the final debate. So they are not as up to date as we would like.

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mysticlaker:

I agree with someone else that said McCain really messed up when they talked about "real virginia".

What has been strange to me is that through the whole campaign M/P have been pushing people away, instead of trying to bring them in. From the repub acceptance speeches, not clamping down on the hate at the rallies, pro-America, etc...It's showing itself in spades now.

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jonny87:

zen,

i dont think his capitalist mask slipped momentarily releasing a raging socialist. just an inartful way of expressing his tax policy.

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Pat:

Obama up by 9 in Ohio in a new sulf University poll.

National polls = McShame's numbers getting better in deep red states. Who cres?

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Indiana4Obama:

The term "spread the wealth" isn't a specific economic/tax policy as much as it is a phrase to reflect the goal of capitalism.

In the 90s you heard very often the idea of everyone being able to enjoy prosperity. That's the basis of "spreading the wealth,"...an economic policy that helps ensure the vast majority of Americans move ahead versus a small percentage.

This old notion of taking money from the "Rich" to give to welfare mothers and others who don't work or don't deserve it is a tired notion that should go away forever.

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masselo:

Suffolk University Poll:

Missouri
Obama 44
Mccain 45


Ohio
Obama 51
Mccain 42

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mandalorianarmy:

Just like in the primary, popular vote totals don't count for anything.

Obama is playing an electoral vote game and he is winning.

If it were a football game, McCain would be getting close to Obama's total yards but Obama still has a 2 touchdown lead.

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jonny87:

before anyone goes nuts about VA, its a few days old.

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political_junki:

@zen:
"jonny
i dont think his capitalist mask slipped momentarily releasing a raging socialist. just an inartful way of expressing his tax policy."

my thoughts exactly.

On another note, amazing election year. Seriously who would have guessed 6 month that on Oct, VA "maybe" going dark blue but OH remain yellow.....!!

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SoloBJ:

Yes jonny87, a gaffe on his part. I see from RAS polling that "Joe the Plumber" gets his best reviews from middle-income voters which are the people that Obama is targeting.

On another note, McCain only has $47 million to spend in October and has to defend a bunch of states. Obama has a ton of money and I'm hoping in his 30 minute ad next week, he will explain the "spread the wealth" comment, lay to rest the socialist remarks and boost/further solidify his support.

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Indiana4Obama:

Obama has a great chance at Missouri. I think you'll see him back there again before the election. His crowd responses in St Louis and KC were amazing.

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political_junki:

@jonny:
it is from 16. by then Obama had slipped in natl polls.

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Batony:

Suffolk:

Ohio:
Obama: 51%
McCain: 42%

Some Republicans in Ohio are already focusing on the 2010 Governor's race

Missouri:

McCain: 45%
Obama: 46%

Poll taken Friday through Sunday.

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jonny87:

CNN:

"It's clear from the final presidential debate that one of McCain's top priority was to distance himself from Bush," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It looks like McCain has convinced growing numbers of Americans that his policies would be different than Bush. The next task is to convince voters that his policies would be better than Bush's and on the economic front at least, that may be a more difficult task."

...just because he said im not george bush???

the mind boggles

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Thatcher:

@Kip Tin -

On the CNN polls - the last time Obama was under 50% was the beginning of September. As long as he stays 50%+ ... it doesn't matter what McCain gets.

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Batony:

Sorry, Missouri should be:

McCain: 45%
Obama: 44%

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1magine:

Be worried. Be very worried - read the post on the MO race and Tester. BO is desperate for volunteers and phone calls. People in NC need to have the Ballot explained to them. You can't just vote Dem down the line, you must also vote Dem for Pres. Opposite of TX. Very confusing ballot - wonder why?

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OneAngryDwarf:

@SoloBJ

To add to your thoughts, Obama is swimming in money we saw some Obama ads here in AZ last night and I was wondering why he would be doing that. From Bloomberg today it appears that he and the DNC have more money than they know what to do with.

My bet is that a lot of Obama ads in a lot of states are going to go unanswered for the rest of this campaign.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a4Pz1EAmXk50

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maddiekat:

This gaffe that you keep speaking of was another attempt by Republicans to take 5 or 6 words out of a 5 minute conversation and twist it into a position. If you listen to the whole conversation it is obvious to any thinking person that what Obama was saying is it is time the working class in this country got a tax break opposed to the rich enjoying the fruits of Bush and McLiars tax cuts.

Also by looking at the state polls in comparison to the tracking polls it is obvious that the South is being over sampled and some of the red states are very red.

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vmval1:

VA - O+10

- following statement to be repeated in an arrogant french accent:
And zen, you steek ze fork in him like so....ah yees, eeet iz bootiful, ee eez definatly *d o n e*

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Indiana4Obama:

The 16th was 4 days ago...how much is a 10 pt lead going to "evaporate" in 4 days?

Okay, MAYBE Obama really only leads by 6-7 pts in Virginia. The Powell endorsement could have offset any Obama slippage anyway. Either way, this poll has to be a disappointment for Mccain.

Virginia may stay red, but Mccain has a lot of work to do between now and the election.

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Trosen:

There's nothing "weird" about it. McCain is solidifying his base, and actually losing ground with independents in crucial states he needs. He's gaining in popular vote and slipping in EV hopes. The "tightening" is meaningless.

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1magine:

*********************************************************
Suffolk Poll out:


Obama Leads by 9 in Ohio, McCain Edges in Missouri

Last update: 12:03 p.m. EDT Oct. 20, 2008
BOSTON, Oct 20, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Suffolk University Poll Shows McCain Votes driven by Factors External to the Candidate
With just over two weeks left before the presidential election, voters in the key state of Ohio are giving the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 9-point lead (51 percent - 42 percent) over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.
In Missouri, McCain led by 1 percent (45 percent to 44 percent) statewide. He also led the bellwether test of Platte County, Mo.
"If Ohio goes for Obama, it could be the tipping point that will usher him into the White House," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "At least today, the probability of an Ohio win is supported by the high-single-digit lead in the statewide poll coupled with the Perry County bellwether, which showed Obama leading by 4 percent."
In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.
What drives McCain voters is not always the man himself, but other factors, such as a vote against Obama or support for Palin.
Obama voters were more excited by their candidate, but some were voting against President George W. Bush:

OH Voters for McCain MO Voters for McCain
Factors Percent Percent

Vote for McCain 49 66
Vote for Palin 8 4
Vote against Obama 15 21


OH voter for Obama MO Voters for Obama
Percent Percent

Vote for Obama 71 73
Vote against McCain 10 6
Vote against Bush 12 14

"Obama's strength is two-fold: More people are driven to vote for Obama because of Obama; in addition, any anti-Obama McCain voters are offset by anti-Bush Obama voters who may not be motivated by Obama, but are motivated against George Bush," said Paleologos.
"Joe the Plumber," a spectator who asked a question at an Obama rally, dominated the last presidential debate and the media coverage thereafter. However, in both battleground states, the impact on the presidential race is minimal.
In Ohio, 68 percent of respondents said they recognized "Joe the Plumber," but only 6 percent said that Joe's story will make them more likely to vote McCain; 4 percent were more likely to vote for Obama; and 85 percent were not affected. A similar finding was recorded in Missouri, where 80 percent had heard of the presidential plumber; 8 percent were more likely to vote McCain; 3 percent more likely to vote Obama; and 86 percent not affected by his story.
The Suffolk University Ohio poll was conducted Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The Missouri poll was conducted Friday, Oct. 17, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The margin of error on each study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from both surveys were likely voters from Ohio and Missouri.
Separate from the statewide poll, there were 312 respondents from the Ohio bellwether of Perry County and 204 respondents from the Missouri bellwether of Platte County. Both sets of statewide and bellwether marginals as well as cross-tabulation data from both states will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site - www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, Oct. 20, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.
SOURCE Suffolk University

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"before anyone goes nuts about VA, its a few days old."

Yes, after the Powell endorsement, I expect to see this lead expand to at least +12.

____________________

fed:

That MO poll has a huge problem, on Saturday 175000 Dems were not home

____________________

Inkan1969:

Suffolk says that McCain edges Obama out by 1% in MO, but Obama blows McCain out by 9% in Ohio? Uh, yeah....

____________________

pion:

@Zen:

All he meant was that the tax policies under Republicans always favored the rich under the assumption that wealth would 'trickle down'. That philosophy led to an economic expansion without accompanying growth in the real income of the vast majority of Americans; that income in fact declined over the last 8 years.

His basic point was about a progressive tax plan that cuts taxes for the middle class and lower income workers while simultaneously raising taxes on the wealthy to what they were under Reagan; the expectation is that it will result in *both* economic expansion and a real rise in wages after inflation is taken into account.

____________________

jonny87:

i wish it was true, but theres no chance obamas 9 clear in OH.

____________________

GrampsMcCain:

Obama loses 2 points of the national lead and gains 4 points in Virginia? I think the national polls are undercounting Obama's support.

____________________

tar_heel:

The CNN poll suggests the same five-point spread as an average of all the daily trackers. No real news there. Their previous poll was from Oct. 3-5, before the final two debates. I do think that McCain has been able to define his policies a little better in the course of the last two weeks. By necessity, they aren't exactly the same as Bush's, but the overall penchant for deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy remains. That has been the Reps. platform since Reagan, whom both Bush and McCain say they admire.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Link to suffolk

http://www.suffolk.edu/31491.html

Boom, what don't you understand? The US election is like 50 individual elections that get added together. Obama learned perfectly from the master of this (Bush/Rove)...We go for the states that are going to push us over the edge and go to town on them. What Obama has done has push him national numbers up in early October and is riding that in the states the last two weeks. He started to put the resources on the key states to get him to victory and will push them through till Nov 4th. A 10 point lead can drop to 5 in two weeks, but a 5 point lead in the battlegrounds is plenty for victory. The national numbers don't real mean much anymore.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"Be worried. Be very worried - read the post on the MO race and Tester. BO is desperate for volunteers and phone calls."

Nothing is more pathetic than a concern troll.

____________________

vmval1:

@fed:

gold...

____________________

muckinello:

Good news from Ras on VA. That is better than expected (by me).
Let's see the other polls. Would just want to see Obama comfortably ahead in CO and would still call it a positive day!
Two weeks to go!

____________________

Batony:

That Rasmussen Va poll is odd. No one here in Va thinks McCain is down by that much.

McCain is using Ayers, like anyone cares about Ayers. Wright was sitting there on a golden platter, but he uses Ayers who people like me are too young to even know or care about. McCain deserves to lose. And McCain is in PA again!! I want to see those damn INTERNALS.

____________________

1magine:

MO poll was done SAT? With 175,000 Obama voters out at rallies? Why do I think that that's worth 3-4%?

No matter. MO is not nearly a tipping point. Obama's path to 270 has always been Kerry + NH, IA, NM and CO. He is double digits with those EVs. If VA, NC, OH, MO, NV come along for the ride it's gravy. Helps to show a mandate for change.

____________________

jonny87:

maddiekat,

its the soundbite that matters.

____________________

DTM:

Just a casual reminder, here is the quote in context:

"My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody. If you’ve got a plumbing business, you’re gonna be better off if you’re gonna be better off if you’ve got a whole bunch of customers who can afford to hire you, and right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody."

This is clearly not socialism. Rather, it is pragmatic capitalism--what Obama is saying is that business owners need customers, and so even business owners eventually end up being hurt when the economy is not performing well for the middle class.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"That Rasmussen Va poll is odd. No one here in Va thinks McCain is down by that much."

But everyone I know voted for McGovern!

Republicans need to get used to the following phrase: "Silent Majority"

____________________

Chester:

I hope Obama doesn't get too greedy. He shouldn't be going after Missouri, West Virginia, or ND. He should focus on Vir, Flor, and the Western states (keep Biden there on the 'second front'). I'm glad he's in Orlando today... as soon as the World Series starts Floridians are going to care less about the election... bad news for McCain who needs lots of Flor news coverage to turn things around, but bad news for Obama is Game 6 is on Oct 29!

____________________

Pat:

The reason for the discrepancy between State polls and national polls:

Obama is running a State level campaign targeting all those 8 or 9 important swing States. He has the money, he can do it.

McShame does not have enough money and so he is running a national campaign trying to get free press by making controversial comments.
Only deep red states are getting deeper. Who cares????

____________________

zen:

@Indiana4obama, jonny87

Thanks for your explanations...

but still, i feel so pity .... without this commnet obama would be now up 10 point.

this is another "Bitter comment"
Oh, i hate this.

____________________

vmval1:

@Batony:

"That Rasmussen Va poll is odd. No one here in Va thinks McCain is down by that much."

Um actually, he's probably up by more after the Powell endorsement...

____________________

Chester:

New CNN / Opinion (not poll of polls), has Obama +5.

____________________

jonny87:

@Batony

your not the only who wants to know why both candidates are competing furiously in a state where one is supposedly 13 points clear???????

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"He shouldn't be going after Missouri"

Obama invested a massive amount in MO infrastructure early on, and as the recent Rasmussen poll showed (it had him up by 6), it is now paying off. It would be foolish to abandon Missouri, especially since MO + VA would allow him to suffer an upset in PA.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Let me remind folks a 5% poll lead on election day IS A LANDSLIDE if it holds. State polls in BG states STILL do NOT look good for McCain. Bush lead by about 1.8% in 2004 on average heading into election day. Enough said:) 14 days folks!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Chester

I wouldn't worry too much about Obama going into new states at this point in time. He and the DNC have so much money that they probably can't buy any more air time or field offices in the existing BG states to make a difference.

By going into new states and helping downticket D's in the House and Senate O is probably trying not just to win the presidency, but to make sure that he has a Congressional Mandate that he can use to govern.

____________________

zotz:

The McCain campaign has really been bad in VA. McCain's brother called northern Virginian's "communists". Then that McCain spokesman talked about N. Virginia not being "the real Virginia". Then the Rep campaign chairman was caught on tape telling workers to compare Obama to Osama and McCain had to rebuke him. Alln this is having an effect.

____________________

Chester:

My guess on why the national polls are dropping while the state polls are flat or rising is that the socialist rhetoric has hit a chord with the solid red states; I expect he's up about 40 in OK right now! Those guys hear that word and they start foaming at the mouth.

McCain is increasing his base support which is helping him nationally but not in the battleground. He's still not aggressively targeting the middle which is astonishing to me.... he should be on the offensive now, wearing his bio like a badge to try to dampen Powell's effect.

____________________

jonny87:

your not the only one*

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Chester how is game 6 bad news for Obama. He will be on television on every network BEFORE the game starts. This will only increase viewership for folks tuning into the game early. Wow you guys are really grasping.

____________________

KipTin:

Yes, the Rasmussen poll for Virginia is dated October 16, whereas Powell did not endorse Obama until yesterday October 19.

Why Obamanation puts so much emphasis on Powell is puzzling. It was Colin Powell who helped Bush get the U.S. into Iraq. Remember his U.N. presentation of false information? What happened to the Anti-Iraq War/Anti-Bush? And if Powell was fooled by Bush to go along, then what does that say about Powell's judgement?

I honestly think that most people will just see another black guy endorsing Obama.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

You guys say the democrats are not socialist or communist ... but yet, they seek to silence opposition to their Fuhrer ...


http://www.nypost.com/seven/10202008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/dems_get_set_to_muzzle_the_right_134399.htm

they also seek to end secret ballots in union elections ....

and to repeal right to work laws that keep people from being force to join unions in return for exercising their right to have a job.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Chester -

Obama needs to be "greedy" - the vote needs to be run up. If the state totals are squeakers or national is a squeaker - then the hole ACORN thing becomes a GOP lawsuit about the validity of the election. It's not my opinion about ACORN - but it's a game piece for the GOP.

Also - to solidify a mandate - Obama needs to show strong in as many states as possible and run up that national % number ...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Obama shouldn't be going after MO? Are you on crack? so 1 poll shows down 1 in MO and he should give up. ROFL. 175,000 people in two days to his rallies and SEVERAL polls showing large leads. Yah..SMART post there Mr.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

And right on cue here come the trolls. Huge poll numbers for Obama and voila they are here to tell everyone how we are going to be forced to swear an oath of fealty to our new communist/socialist overlords.

This is an interesting phenomenon that seems to happen everytime good poll numbers for Obama show up.

Alright I've had enough for today, time to go make some money. Hope everyone has a good one.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"What happened to the Anti-Iraq War/Anti-Bush? And if Powell was fooled by Bush to go along, then what does that say about Powell's judgement?"

That's some desperate spin, but if you want to imply that McCain himself has "bad judgment," then go right ahead. Regardless, FAIL!

"Keep VA Red"

FAIL!

____________________

burrito:

@Chester:

"... but bad news for Obama is Game 6 is on Oct 29!"

Actually, I do not think those are bad news for Obama. He has a time slot just before the game ... people will be watching, while waiting for the game to start ... although I think that many will have made up their minds by them, I think that Obama will press for the GOTV and the importance of this election ... keeping the excitement going ...

____________________

vmval1:

@Keep VA Red:

Blah blah blah socialist.
blah blah blah Nazi
blah blah blah terrorist

Thank the sweet baby jesus that we're getting rid of your party at all levels of govt for the next 4 years at least.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Keep VA Red:

The "Fuhrer" in WWII was a fascist ... with much of the similar policies as Bush/Cheney.

____________________

southern angler:

This poll is showing another slide for Obama.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

Indeed, the sudden influx of trolls is hilarious and telling.

____________________

KipTin:

Obama's 2-minute ads are great for making a snack. Obama's 30-minute ad will be great for making dinner. People have to eat, and what a good time to do so. The Obama campaign needs to really use cognitive research on the average person's attention span... especially regarding "talking heads."

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Keep VA Red I love your state!:) Must be awesome to see your party losing so badly there!

____________________

pion:

@KipTin: I'm not a big Colin Powell fan because of his role in the war. For me, his endorsement is non-consequential.

On the other hand, I can see that Powell could influence people (however slightly) who supported GWB and the war but have soured on the Republican agenda.

____________________

Batony:

Palin packs in another 11,000 in CO. at 8am on a Monday morning...damn.

Anyway so McCain and Palin are campaigning again on Wednesday in Ohio on Wednesday. Good grief. It's sad the major party candidate can't campaign by himself.

Getting back to PA, again I want to see these internals. Cindy and Rudy were there all weekend, McCain is making three stops tomorrow, Tom Ridge is on "bitter and clings to guns and religion tour"...I mean come on show me the internals.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

@vmal1

you are blinded by your belief in your alleged savior ... even your sacred prophets the NY Times predicts that Obama/Pelosi/Reid will push so far to the left that the Democrats will suffer a backlash of epic proportions ... we may well lose this one, but we'll be back stronger than ever ...

____________________

JCK:

Yes, the VA poll may be a couple days old, but Obama's lead has expanded since the previous poll.

If he's anywhere near 54% in VA, it's going to be very very hard for McCain to reverse the tide.

54-44 means only 2% are undecided or voting for "other." That's not a lot of undecided voters to sway.

Anxiously awaiting the 6pm release from Ras (CO, FL, NC, MO).

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"This poll is showing another slide for Obama."

LOL!

"Obama's 2-minute ads are great for making a snack. Obama's 30-minute ad will be great for making dinner. People have to eat, and what a good time to do so. The Obama campaign needs to really use cognitive research on the average person's attention span... especially regarding "talking heads.""

Ahahahaha! Oh desperation, you are truly the mistress of hilarity...

____________________

Chester:

@ Burrito:

I thought Fox hadn't picked up his slot because it's running during the game... my mistake if it's before (that is actually good news).

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin you are sounding pretty desperate, just so you know. And Batony, WOW Palin can draw the base. EXCITING!:)

____________________

fortleemets:

Does anyone believe that there is a "Bush effect"? I.e., given the fact that Bush has a 24% approval rating, people are embarrased to admit to pollster that they are voting for a republican but will, in fact, end up voting for McCain in the booth.

____________________

jonny87:

any chance mccain has given up on VA (goes occasionally so its not obvious) so just has to flip PA???

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"you are blinded by your belief in your alleged savior ... even your sacred prophets the NY Times predicts that Obama/Pelosi/Reid will push so far to the left that the Democrats will suffer a backlash of epic proportions ... we may well lose this one, but we'll be back stronger than ever ..."

Mmmmm, the empty threats of an electoral LOSER. Delicious. Num num num.

____________________

Chester:

@ Kiptin:

"Great for making a snack!" Those 2 minute ads are among the most effective I've ever seen! They project him into living rooms, with no negative bull****, and he talks about policy which is what people want to hear. I expect to see a new one soon.

____________________

Batony:

The two things if I am an Obama I worry about in CO and VA is the religouis right in CO and the religious right and military in VA. They are still very powerful in each state and have great turnout efforts in each state.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Palin packs in 11,000...in Colorado Springs?

SHOCKING!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Fox actually is airing the Obama 1/2 hour and the World Series will start 1/2 hour later! ROFL Must KILL the righties to see that!

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"Does anyone believe that there is a "Bush effect"? I.e., given the fact that Bush has a 24% approval rating, people are embarrased to admit to pollster that they are voting for a republican but will, in fact, end up voting for McCain in the booth."

Wow, you guys ARE getting desperate...

____________________

jonny87:

fortleemets,

something like this happend in the UK...check 'shy tory

____________________

Keep VA Red:

@Thatcher ... Fuhrer is simply the German word for "leader" ... but you guys are probably a bit fascist too ... I'm sure you would all like to kill all the conservatives to make you little socialist utopia a little better ...

____________________

mysticlaker:

All CNN numbers:

I hope you like! The number that should be reported is the second number because that is what is happening in most states. Plus, just that huge advantage on RV's is impressive. It'll be really intersting to see how LV models change after this year (if they do which I think they will)....


CNN:

LV (983) Horse Race:
Obama 51
McCain 46

LV w/3rd Party:
Obama 49
McCain 43
Barr 2
Nader 3

RV (1058) Horse Race:
Obama 53
McCain 43

RV w/3rd Party:
Obama 51
McCain 40
Barr 1
McKinney 1
Nader 4

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Batony,

I think you're correct...VA and CO are two states I'll be sweating out no matter what the polls say for the very reason you suggest. But Obama's success in the primaries makes me hopeful.

I think both states will be very close regardless of what the polls say.

____________________

zen:

re: Powells endorsement

I don't think it will sway the voters.
However, it can solidify the soft voters of obama... i read in rasmussen among 50 percent of obama supporters 44 percent is totally commited... that means 6 percent can still change the mind... Maybe this endorsement can hold that soft voters... Anyhow, Ayers-terrorist attack won't work, that's for sure now. Maybe W buffet has to give interview regarding Obamanomics to disperse this socialist attack.

____________________

UpperLeft:

did you guys see the Georgia early voting numbers? More people have already voted early than voted in all of 2004, and almost 36% AA.

Funny itsnt it how CNN's headline says "race tightening" when their own #'s for RVs say Obama is up by 11 pts?

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"something like this happend in the UK...check 'shy tory"

Jonny, your persistent "concern" is transparent.

Most state polls use automated surveys.

Automated surveys = no incentive to lie

The rationalizations I'm seeing here are f'n hilarious.

____________________

southern angler:

Report on the black VOTER turn out in Charlotte.
I spent roughly an hour at the polls today. I only counted four blacks compared to aprox. two hundred whites. The messiah visited NC a couple days ago. Sorry I'm not impressed.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

That's a good point. Non-battleground states probably look more like a LV model. Battleground states probably look more like an RV model.

____________________

KipTin:

Again.. read up on "attention focus" regarding cognition. Obama only "talks"... not a way to keep people tuned in.
---------

Yesterday on a Sunday talk show Newt Gingrich coined the term "REPO"... Reid/Pelois/Obama... in talking about one-party government. These are not the centrists of the Democratic Party and many people may indeed vote against such a liberal combo.

Wall Street Journal also wrote a good article about REPO.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"I spent roughly an hour at the polls today. I only counted four blacks compared to aprox. two hundred whites. The messiah visited NC a couple days ago. Sorry I'm not impressed."

Ah, more desperate concern trolling.

Sorry Trolly McTrollerton, the hard data about NC early votes shows that you are DEAD WRONG about who is turning out.

____________________

DTM:

The Powell endorsement is not about persuading strong anti-war Democrats--they are already on board. It is about helping Obama among moderate Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. And even then it is not so much about getting them to change their mind if they were supporting McCain, but rather hardening the support of the ones who were already leaning to Obama but had some reservations.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

LV (983) Horse Race:
Obama 51
McCain 46

LV w/3rd Party:
Obama 49
McCain 43
Barr 2
Nader 3

RV (1058) Horse Race:
Obama 53
McCain 43

RV w/3rd Party:
Obama 51
McCain 40
Barr 1
McKinney 1
Nader 4


So Obama is up 5 points...or 6 points...or 10 points...or 11 points. Maybe 1 point or 37 points? Why not? CNN is "Gallupfied" here. Might as well just release 20 polls based on different models, all with different results.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

>>Again.. read up on "attention focus" regarding cognition. Obama only "talks"... not a way to keep people tuned in.

Psychobabble won't save your failed party, Internet Freud.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Guys, kipTin is a very angry old woman living in a nursing room who is disappointed that Hillary didn't win the primaries.She still can't get over it so don't pay attention to her
It would be a waste of time an energy

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

More violence from Republican fascists: http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=307949

You guys can't alienate independents fast enough!

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"Guys, kipTin is a very angry old woman living in a nursing room who is disappointed that Hillary didn't win the primaries.She still can't get over it so don't pay attention to her
It would be a waste of time an energy"

This one was probably lying about being a Clinton supporter back when that was the hip thing for GOP trolls to do. Clinton will likely be Senate Majority Leader in 2009, making the right's collective head explode.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

@Ape

Here is the prophetic piece of the NYT on what your guys will do to the country and the backlash ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/opinion/14brooks.html?_r=1&scp=10&sq=backlash%20democrat&st=cse&oref=slogin

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin you still sound worried:) I would be too!

____________________

tar_heel:

southern angler--I wonder if you went to one of our public libraries down in heavily Republican South Charlotte--you're right, there are few African Americans in line. But that micro-reality defies the facts in the state as a whole.

____________________

DTM:

By the way, Obama is a pragmatist and a consensus-builder. So while I know it is in the current electoral interests of McCain supporters to claim he is going to try to round up all the conservatives in America and send them to reeducation camps, what is actually going to happen is that he is going to try to work with conservatives and the politicians who represent them.

____________________

vmval1:

Gallup poll:

Pls refer to my comment above regarding forks and being done.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"Here is the prophetic piece of the NYT on what your guys will do to the country and the backlash ..."

David Brooks? Why not just link to a Bill Kristol op-ed?

DOUBLE FAIL!

____________________

DecaturMark:

Good #s from Gallup for Obama

____________________

Batony:

@ThatMarvelousApe:

C'mon now. As an independent, things like that don't influence your vote. People like me are independents for a reason, we think both parties are full of it. That's why I have this nagging fear of Washington being controlled by 1 party.

____________________

Pat:

WOW, WOW, WOW.

Have you seen Gallup!

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Anyway, Obama is up today in Gallup in all the models -

52-41 RV

52-43 LV Expanded

50-45 LV Traditional

____________________

sunnymi:

@Batony, you said "That Rasmussen Va poll is odd. No one here in Va thinks McCain is down by that much."

Ask McCain and his campaign to repeat the 'Real Virginia' and 'Communist Northern Virginia' a few more times and come election day you might feel today's margin was better!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Gwww.gallup.com

RV

O 52
M 41 (-1)

LVI
O 52 +1
M 43 -1

LVII
O 50 +1
M 45 -1

____________________

tar_heel:

Gallup shows even better numbers for Barack:

RV O 52 M 41
LV O 52 M 43 (expanded)
LV O 50 M 45 (traditional)

Now even Gallup's traditional model is in line with other polls. Overall, no tightening today, as the polls offset.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Gallup widening for OBAMA!

____________________

jeepdad:

Yep, Obama up in all Gallup scenarios.

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

The CNN LV screen is eliminating about 25% of registered voters. That is way more restrictive than 2004, where 12.5% of RV stayed home, and historical voting patterns, where you usually see 15-20% of RV no-show.

Doing the math, Obama is leading 58-33 among nonvoting RV in the CNN poll. Putting half of them back in to approximate historical actual voter/RV numbers, and you get an Obama lead of 53.5-44.4.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

@DTM

HA!HA!HA!HA!HA!HA! .... ROFLMAO

IF YOU THINK REID/PELOSI/OBAMA ARE GOING TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLAT OUT IGNORE EVERYTHING THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO SAY YOU ARE DREAMING ...

THEIR ARE SALIVATING OVER THEIR LOOMING OPPORTUNITY ...

____________________

Chenna:

Wow!! Gallup just out.

RV
Obama 52
McCain 41

LV
Obama 52
McCain 43

LV(Trad.)
Obama 50
McCain 45

Could this be the rest of post debate bump or just were the trend is going? I watch Morning Joe this morning and Tucker Carlson even said he thinks this is a 10 pt. race. That says something.

____________________

Chester:

Obama picked up 2 points in both LV Gallup models!

5% and 9%, with 11% among RVs!

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"As an independent, things like that don't influence your vote. People like me are independents for a reason, we think both parties are full of it."

Tell yourself what you need to, but I've spoken to numerous independents and moderate Republicans who are either voting Obama or sitting this one out because they are DISGUSTED with McCain and the GOP base.

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

"HA!HA!HA!HA!HA!HA! .... ROFLMAO

IF YOU THINK REID/PELOSI/OBAMA ARE GOING TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLAT OUT IGNORE EVERYTHING THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO SAY YOU ARE DREAMING ...

THEIR ARE SALIVATING OVER THEIR LOOMING OPPORTUNITY ..."

Time for your meds!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Golly gee Beav. Looks like several National polls even are going the WRONG way, If you're McCain. Muahahahahaahahaha!

____________________

McShame:

So Obama goes up in 3 trackers, down in 2 trackers. So much for "tightening". Keep in mind Hotline adjusted its weightings again giving Democrats only a 3 pt advantage.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

DTM is the one that needs meds ... she's hallucinating about REPO being consensus builders ...

____________________

vmval1:

@Keep VA Red:

Could you please wipe the drool of your chin.

____________________

DTM:

By the way, I generally think divided government is best as well. But under the current circumstances, I think the GOP needs to spend a little "time in the wilderness" so that it can reinvent itself as a modern and principled conservative party--or, if necessary, to be replaced by a modern and principled conservative party.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

other than covering her ass on the bailout, when have you ever seen Pelosi actually try to build a consensus with the Republican party????

____________________

Viperlord:

Did Keep run in here after we caught him BSing in the other thread?

____________________

fed:

Do not argue about national polls. At this point in time, what really counts are the battleground States.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

My 94 year old RACIST uncle is voting for Obama. I've known this man my whole life. X Military, makes racist remarks all the time, when we asked him so you "voting for good 'ole McCain." He screamed "HELL ****ING NO." "I hate that guy!"

We sat their stunned. Righties you can spin all you want but I've literally heard 50 stories like this from friends in my own circle.

My best friend grew up in an evangelical family from AR. These are people who have NEVER in their life voted for a DEM because you just DON'T vote for baby killers no matter how good Dems are economically in history.

This year? The entire family OBAMA.

I'm sure many of us have similar stories.

____________________

Mister H:

New Gallup dailies are out.

Obama now has an 11-point lead overall. That is a drop of -1 for McCain.

But here is where it gets VERY interesting: In the Likely Voters (Expanded) column, Obama leads 52%-43%, with Obama GAINING 1 and McCain LOSING 1. In the traditional model, Obama is now up by 5 points...again with Obama GAINING 1 and McCain LOSING 1.

For a long time now, many conservatives have relied on that traditional set, hoping that it would be the key number this election season. But 5 points (I believe) is a high for Obama in that set.

The dailies are all over the place....but personally, I think that we may see Obama trend UP...especially after the Powell endorsement.

____________________

Inkan1969:

IBD/TIPP is stable

http://www.tippoline.com

Obama +5.3 as opposed to yesterday's +5.1.

____________________

DTM:

@Keep VA Red

Again, I know it is in your political interests to claim such things, and I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you have actually convinced yourself of their truth (although an unbiased survey of Obama's history as a legislator and proposals during this election would suggest otherwise).

But assuming Obama does in fact become President, you will be pleasantly surprised, at least relatively speaking, with how Obama treats conservatives and their representatives. Again, he is far too pragmatic to do anything else.

____________________

mrzookie:

TIPP/IBD:

Date McCain Obama Undecided Spread
October 20 41.4% 46.7% 11.9% +5.3 Obama
October 19 41.5% 46.6% 11.9% +5.1 Obama

____________________

scjmcy2k:

New Gallup, Obama up 11

____________________

Inkan1969:
____________________

Dan:

@PortlandRocks
"My 94 year old RACIST uncle is voting for Obama."

cool! My step-grandmother told me last week (paraphrase) "I really like Joe Biden. Im not voting for monkey-ears, but Im voting Obama-Biden!"


I'll gladly put up with a racist comment if it gains Obama/Biden a vote! If the Dem draw is strong enough to overpower old racism, then we're in pretty good shape.

____________________

vmval1:

IBD/TIPP unchanged - essentially O + 5.3

____________________

sunnymi:

The last question asked by Suffolk in both OH and MI voter surveys reveals interesting information:

Ohio
Those polled voted 44-43 in favor of Bush in 2004 whereas they support 52-42 in favor or Obama now. That is a 11-point swing in favor of the Democrat.

Missouri
Those polled voted 52-44 in favor of Bush in 2004 whereas they support 45-44 in favor or McCain now. That is a 7-point swing in favor of the Democrat.

____________________

Connor:

When Rasmussen tightens, Gallup almost always expands. WTF?

____________________

1magine:

Full Gallup up: Although the absolute percentages supporting Obama and McCain have varied in a narrow range for nearly the past three weeks, Obama's lead shrank to six points late last week, only to expand again in recent days. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup's latest three-day rolling average, from Oct. 17-19, spans a weekend when McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, drew a huge television audience and much post-show media coverage for her cameo appearance on NBCs "Saturday Night Live." Also, on Sunday former Secretary of State and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Colin Powell, delivered a strong endorsement of Obama for president -- calling his candidate "a transformational figure" who is capable of being "an exceptional president."

The Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll shows no shift in support for the candidates between Saturday and Sunday to suggest that either of these events had any immediate impact on voter preferences.

Gallup's modeling of likely voters indicates the race is somewhat tighter if we assume that voter turnout patterns will be similar to those seen in most presidential elections from 1952 through 2004. Using this "traditional" definition of likely voters, which takes into account respondents' history of voting as well as their current interest in the campaign and self-reported likelihood of voting, Obama leads McCain by five points, 50% to 45%. This is slightly better than the two- to three-point leads he held among this group late last week.

An alternative expanded likely voter model shows what would happen if turnout reflects voters' self-reported likelihood of voting and campaign interest, but is not assumed to be dependent on their voting history. Under that scenario, Obama leads by 9 points, 52% to 43%. -- Lydia Saad

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I've never seen my friends and family so eager to vote. I'm telling you, this is nationwide. I know the right likes to look at crumbs being thrown their way with small blurps in the tracking poll. The fact is the RIGHT WRONG track # is at historical lows. This will NEVER favor the incumbent party. If Oboma is leading by 5 with the most CONSERVATIVE #'s then it's going to be a landslide folks. Laugh all you want about the $150 million but do you understand Obama can now completely DRAIN his war chest? This is a nation EASILY swayed by commercials, don't try to let yourself think that this tv advantage doesn't matter. It's over.

____________________

muckinello:

To all conservatives (like keepVAred, which does not appear to happen):
You had your chance:
-8 years as POTUS
-12 of the last 14 in congress
-majority of SCOTUS
and you SCREWED IT UP! The Bush economy expansion never "trickled" down to the middle and low classes (real salaries are lower now than when you started running the country). And in the meantime you messed up the banking system (which now is socialized thanks to you)
No matter how you "twist" it, the Country is ready for a more progressive agenda.
So, keep up the good work and taling points such as "ayers", "hussein", "he's a socialist", "joe the plumber", "retzko", "wright", "liberals, liberals, liberals", "pelosi, ried, biden" etc. etc.
The good work will pay off (for Obama)
Two weeks, THEN VOTE!

____________________

boomshak:

WITH GALLUP, EVERYONE IS NOW COMING IN AROUND 5 POINTS (RCP Avg 5.2):

CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/19 3000 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/17 - 10/19 1211 LV 2.9 50 44 Obama +6
Hotline/FD 10/17 - 10/19 789 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/17 - 10/19 2340 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
GWU/Battleground 10/13 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
IBD/TIPP 10/14 - 10/18 1072 LV 3.0 47 42 Obama +5

CONCLUSION:
It is safe to say that this is about a 5 point race right now, at least among traditional likely voters. Since we have never tested the "expanded model" we have no idea how accurate it will be. Gallup is the only one using this model, which leads one to believe the other pollsters are suspect of it as well.

So, a 5 point race. If that holds, McCain will get slaughtered on election day. We'll see if things tighten some more.

BIDEN'S MAJOR GAFFE:
Biden came out today saying there is a very high chance that Obama will be tested with a major international incident during his first 6 months in office (I can't imagine Team Obama "wanted" him to bring that up).

Anyway, we'll see if that gets any traction.
All things remaining the same, I expect a normal further tightening to the right until election day of a few points. If Obama is +3 on Nov 4, he will probably still win and America will lose.

____________________

Kile Thomson:

No Surge ?

____________________

southern angler:

I now understand why Bush picked Powell. I just heard Powells original speak promoting the Iraq war. He was very convincing.

Also Joe Biden guarranteed an international crisis if Obama is elected. He goes on to say the crisis will occure within the first 6 months of a OBAMA administration, not McCains. He believes that terrorist will "Test Us".

Thanks Joe for the "hesds up".

____________________

jonny87:

ThatMarvelousApe

about 'shy tory'

i didnt have time to finish...

i dont believe it will be a significant factor. uk elections are much shorter, but this election has been going for so long i doubt anyones still 'shy' about saying there republican.

plus rightly or wrongly(definetly wrongly) palin has made republicans proud to call themselves republican

and whilst mccain may be a jerk, there are positive reasons to vote for him so theres no reason to be shy.

____________________

muckinello:

@boom
probably still win and America will lose.
Yes, America wil lose it's most inept president ever and will lose it's most inept presidential candidate ever!

____________________

boomshak:

@muckinello:

And although the Democrats promised us the sun, the moon and the stars if elected in 2006, they bear NO RESPONSIBILITY for anything bad that has happened, right?

2 years. No results. No responsibility.

I expect you'll be singing the same song 2 years from now if Obama wins. "The economy isn't Obama's fault. This is George Bush's economy!"

Yep, I can hear it now.

____________________

Viperlord:

Muckinello: Amen to that.

____________________

vmval1:

Warren Harding will be glad that he's been replaced at the bottom of the list.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak why do you think the WORLD wants Obama so bad as much as 55 % of the US? They are desperate for the US to show true leadership again that has been lacking for 8 years under Bush. What a HORRIBLE president. Then McCain picks the %(*()@%*$ as his running mate. BRILLIANT. The pick showed Americans that the GOP is more about power than true leadership. Hell, your party has DESTROYED everything it's touched.

____________________

Mr Average:

Could anyone answer one of these 3 questions I have about Gallup's poll today?

How can Gallup's expanded number of LV's interviewed be lower than his number of traditional LV's? It has been like that for 3 days: are the numbers reversed or is there another possible reason?

Secondly, the number of traditional (or expanded) likely voters went down dramatically in one day (2590 out of 2798 RV's on Sunday; 2340 out of 2774 RV's on Monday). In other words turnout just went down from 92 to 84%. So yesterday it must have been around 70 per cent. Is that even possible?

Thirdly, in 2004 89% of registered voters actually cast a vote. How can only 84% of Gallup's registered voters be likely to vote in his most optimistic guess?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak do you have the MENTAL CAPICITY to understand that ANY congress would be hard pressed to get ANYTHING done with a Senate majority of 1? FAIL.

____________________

Viperlord:

I think Grant might qualify as worse than Harding actually, but Buchanan may have been worse than either.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Booms first rational post! It's a miracle!

(Your tipp numbers are wrong though - it's updated to 47-41 for today).

____________________

wakeup:

DTM,
I do not have much time... do you remeber your point about payroll taxes? I slept on it and I beg to differ. Are you saying Obama will lower worker payroll taxes?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boomshack could you tell me what the Republican congress did for 6 years besides suck Bush's dick?

____________________

Mister H:

What's hilarious is that, according to Boomshak, there is apparently nothing substantial regarding the FACT that Gallup's dailies have him back up to a high of 11-points overall...and a trending UP in the expanded and traditional models.

Tell us, Boomshak...what has been so "traditional" about this election season so far?

Do you HONESTLY believe that even in the midst of record early-voting that has already begun (and everyone agrees that it is pro-democratic so far) that the "traditional" model is even going to matter?

Also consider this: Obama now has a fresh $150-million to spend. It is the perfect case of "You can't take it with you." He has less than a month to spend that money.....AND the money that is reportedly STILL coming in!!

____________________

vmval1:

C'mon Boom - you're a smart man. Sometimes, to win in the long run a catharsis is required.

Get rid of the a**holes who caused all the problems we're in. Get in the new generation of conservatives, Jindal, Romney et al

____________________

vmval1:

@Mister H:
I've actually wondered that... what do they do with any money thats left over?

____________________

Viperlord:

Remember, boom thinks the economy was great until the Democrats took Congress, he thinks they magically caused the economy to sour. (Bush had done a fine job of wrecking it before then)

____________________

ricbrig:

TIPP online is constant at 5.3%
Gallup is going up, Ras down and I think it's time to take a break from national polls cheap thrills.
However, if VA number are about real (I thin +3% is real), McCain will have to rely on... welll..nothing

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

I remember in 2001-02 people noted that Osama Bin Laden had this smug smirk all through that video where he discusses the 9/11 results with three others. He looked self satisfied, and disdainful of the people he made suffer. When the first video after Tora Bora came out, Bin Laden had a dour facial expression, even as he was trying to blurt out defiant rhetoric. I remember reading one military commentator note this and say, "At least we wiped that d--- smirk off his face."

I felt the exact same way when I read boomshak writing, "So, a 5 point race. If that holds, McCain will get slaughtered on election day." All these days he's been using the polls to put us through Hell with his sneering high school bully attitude. Now the polls have compelled him to put up with a McCain lost. I'm then glad to see the polls at least wipe the ---- smirk off his face. Let him put up with a victory for Obama, the U.S. public, and the free world.

____________________

chgo1:

I know NC is a beautiful state as I have been their many times but the right wingers on this site from NC are down right delusional..is it something in the water?

Here is McInsane soliciting the Russians for campaign contributions..always a good idea!

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/McCain_camp_hits_up_Russian_ambassador.html?showall

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow I may be partisan but I will give a BIG round of applause to McCain supporters at a recent rally. It's brought tears to my eyes. The Christian guy for McCain told the racist... "Are you trying to make us lose?" LOL Smart kid.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/20/muslim-mccain-fans-confro_n_136203.html

____________________

muckinello:

@boom:
Of course I know that economy goes in cycles and most of it is outside the President reach. However, we went through an expansion under Bush and the lower classes never saw the result of it. I am lucky enough to be making good money but believe that, as a Country, we should be pulling for the less fortunate and not for the "haves and have mores" (or what Bush called his crowd).
Deregulation brought millionaires all over Wall Street but now main street is where the pain is and they did not share the benefits of any of the republican policies.
Enron and the banking collapse are all on the shoulders of the deregulators and those are in the republican files (Graham???).
We know there will be sacrifices and I am ready to do my part but would like to help the ones that cannot reach the end of the month and not Halliburton or Exxon executives!

____________________

1503er:

On this day in 2004:

Kerry: 291 EV
Bush: 247 EV

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct20.html

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

I'm still waiting for boomshak to explain to me how, given the Separation of Powers Doctrine, the Legislative Branch can usurp the powers of the Executive Branch to actually run the government. Apparently, he's never read Articles I and II of the Constitution.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

1503er that's right Mr. intelligent. 2004 is JUST LIKE 2008:) FAIL.

____________________

1503er:

Let's not get into a discussion about who's intelligent and who's not. I'm just showing those who are interested what the numbers were in 2004.

____________________

jonny87:

@PortlandRocks

nice work

that guy felt so small lol!

____________________

boomshak:

@Viperlord:

Remember, boom thinks the economy was great until the Democrats took Congress

The economy was OUTSTANDING in Nov, 2006. To deny that is just to be an idiot. GDP over 4%, Unemployment under 5%, Record Stock Market, Record Corporate Profits.

____________________

tjampel:

PPP NC Oct 20

Obama 51
McCain 44

This one poll makes me happier than anything else I've seen in the last week, given the movement from O+3 to O+7. PPP is the best pollster in NC, as they are based there and have done more polling and more accurate polling there than anyone else, including SUSA and Ras

____________________

jeepdad:

Sorry if already posted:

New PPP poll in NC:

51-44 Obama (+7)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1020562.pdf

____________________

muckinello:

1503er:
On this day in 2004:

Kerry: 291 EV
Bush: 247 EV

Today in 2008:
Obama/Biden 364
McCain/Palin 174

____________________

Chester:

@ Boomshak:

"The economy was fabulous until 2006"
Do you really think this crisis originated AFTER 2006???

____________________

tjampel:

taken in tandem with VA's bombshell it's clear that SOCIALISM LIVES! in the South!

let's hear it for Karl Marx, patron saint of regular folks in VA and NC

____________________

Stonecreek:

@ Mr. Average

You are correct. The raw numbers underlying the Gallup RV, LV1, and LV2 are nonsensical and have been that way for a couple of days. I emailed Gallup about this but have received no response. Previously, they were showing the expanded LV to have a larger population than the traditional LV -- which you would certainly expect. The fact that Gallup is obviously misposting raises some question about the accuracy of the rest of their operation. By the way, they've always leaned Republican.

____________________

1503er:

If you can't see the point about my post then I can't help you.

____________________

jonny87:

these state numbers are good. maybe this is what happens when you have a 4-1 cash advantage for the battlegrounds!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Good news from PPP in NC. I've been out the past couple of weekends canvassing for Obama and I don't find these poll results surprising--although everyone knows it will be close here. Powell's endorsement and the tire-slashing incident in Fayetteville yesterday will undoubtedly help Obama with Independents.

____________________

WhereisMitt:

1503er,

Here is my initial problem with that electoral-vote link you provided. The Votemaster's methodology is as follows:

"Some people have said I should average over some time interval, but when I did that in early October, there was massive objection to the idea, so I am going to stick with the most recent poll from here to election day. No more discussion. It is the most objective system."

To me, that was his fatal mistake. Had he stuck with a moving average of the polls instead of just taking the most recent one, Florida and Iowa would have been in Bush's column, giving him an additional 34 EVs, putting him at a total of 281 and Kerry at 257. Bush would be predicted to win, which is what happened.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Read the ppp briefing on NC:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

--------------------------------
Today is the first time I've truly believed that if there is no major shift in McCain's direction nationally over the next two weeks, Barack Obama really will win North Carolina.
------------------------------------
Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

Barack Obama is out to his largest lead yet in a PPP survey of North Carolina, and his remarkably strong standing with white voters in the state is the main reason.

In both 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush won about two thirds of white voters here, but Obama is holding John McCain to a 55-39 lead with that group, almost halving the margin by which the GOP won them in the last two elections. McCain will likely need to increase his lead with whites by at least ten points if he's going to win North Carolina.

Obama's gains are being fueled by very strong performances with two of the fastest growing voter blocs in the state: suburbanites and independent voters. He is up 56-38 in suburbia, where Bush won convincingly in 2004, and has expanded his lead with independents to 51-33. He is now leading or tied in every region of the state except the lily white Mountains, and he's made large gains there as well compared to recent Democratic performance.

Obama also continues to unify his party here. As recently as August he was receiving the votes of only 69% of Democratic voters but that figure is now up to 82%. If a Democratic candidate in North Carolina gets anywhere in the ballpark of the same level of support within his own party as the Republican one does he'll win, and Obama's 82% is not that divergent from the 88% of Republicans McCain is getting.

The economy continues to poll as the top issue for more than 60% of voters in the state, and with those folks Obama is up 62-35.

Today is the first time I've truly believed that if there is no major shift in McCain's direction nationally over the next two weeks, Barack Obama really will win North Carolina.

____________________

muckinello:

@ Boomshak:

"The economy was fabulous until 2006"

But it never "trickled" down! Real salaries went DOWN under Bush. Multimillionaires are the winners but 90% of the Country has less money to spend now than in 2000! (contrary to what happened under Clinton).
That's the real measure. Who gives a **** about corporate profits? Do you see any of them after the executives end their orgy?

____________________

1503er:

The Electoral-Vote map had Kerry up by 10% points in New Mexico on this day in 2004.

Sound familiar?


____________________

boomshak:

A LARGE REASON FOR THE FACT EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE GATHERING AROUND OBAMA +5:

We are down to the final stretch. These pollsters make money because people hire them for being accurate. Nobody wants to be the outlier. Nobody wants to take a big chance 2 weeks out.

So Obama +5 is a "safe" pick.

It is clear Obama is not running away with it, and if McCain surges, they can go to Obama +2 or +3 without it appearing to be a major shift.

So it looks like a close election (at least in the popular vote) and they can all end up with a % point or two of the final result. Or, if they whole pack is wrong, they can say "well, everyone missed".

There is just no benefit to any of these pollsters to go out on a limb here and risk ridicule by missing badly.

Further evidence for my "pollster collusion" theory is that many of these polls were 8 and 9 points apart just a week ago - now they are all about the same.

____________________

ricbrig:

Anyway I have a technical observation.
We have seen that the RCP average has dropped from 8 to 4.8 in just a couple of days. This is due, largely, to the drop of polls which gave 2 digits advantace for obama. These were date oct 12-13 so until oct 18 the average was made on 5 days polling at least. Now basically on 3. Am I missing something? Am I the only one here to have problems with this rolling average with different intervals?
Not that it would change a lot but surely keeping the average interval constat will show a smoother process. In this way the perception is that something dramatic happened between wednesday and sunday (the debate, Joe the plumber but that is fully in by sunday).

____________________

KipTin:

Thanks... 1503er... that "electoral-vote" for this day puts things in perspective--


Barely Bush ( West Virginia 3%
Virginia 3%
North Carolina 3%
Ohio 2%

Barely Kerry ( Florida 1%

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak are you feeling ok? That was a reasonable post!

____________________

1503er:

boomshak,

Your theory would only be valid if you assume that the pollsters don't take into account the results of their own polls.

It's entirely possible that the reason why all the pollsters coalesce around a number (whether it's 8-9% or 5-6%) is because that's the actual number they are finding in their surveys.

____________________

boomshak:

ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY BACK MCCAIN BY A MILE (ARMY TIMES):

http://hillbuzz.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/armytimes.jpg

____________________

mysticlaker:

Boom you ass...They all pick up the same trends. That is why they are valuable. Stop you crying bitch!

Why don't you pick up the phone and call 1000 people tonight randomly, and let us know the result. Or you can just spew **** like usual.

I don't recall one person here saying there was a conspiracy when Obama was losing in mid-Sept because of the pollsters conspiring.

____________________

political_junki:

@1503er:
You are cherry picking, from the very source that you got your number: If you check a few days before or after most of the times Bush is ahead or they are tied, it has no correlation with what is going on now, but if it helps you sleep better for the next couple of week it is allright by me

____________________

muckinello:

@1503er
2008 is not 2004. We can all agree that things may change in the last two weeks but the intensity and drive of the Obama campaign will not change.
By now in 2004 Kerry had already pulled out from MO and most likely also CO and NV putting all his chips in FL and OH. Obama situation is different and with 150M in September he can campaign and advertise hard in all red toss-up states.
Again, 2008 is not 2004

____________________

chesirecat47:

As a staffer in NC, it is amazing to see that we really have a shot. I trust PPP and Civitas more than any other pollster. Don't get complacent though!

____________________

political_junki:

boomshak:
"ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY BACK MCCAIN BY A MILE (ARMY TIMES)":
So what?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin desperate. Desperate.:) Comparing 2004 to this election is HILLARIOUS. National security was KEY in '04. And now? NOT!

____________________

1503er:

Your welcome. That's all I was trying to do was give people some perspective.

I distinctly remember that Kerry was hyped to win. Even on election day the exit polls showed him winning places like Florida.

This notion that 2008 is somehow vastly different from 2004 is a joke. There's nothing but anyone's speculation to suggest that it is different. That hasn't been proven. And neither has Obama's supposed ground game.

I'll seriously consider moving out of this country if McCain/Palin win and ESPECIALLY if Palin somehow ends up as president.

But I'm also not delusional to think this thing is over. There is a lot more out there suggesting the race is more fluid than most of the posters on here would have us believe it is.


____________________

McShame:

@ 1503er:

You are comparing 364 vs 291? That is a massive lead that Obama has in terms of EVs. Even if the actual number drops 40-50 points, that is still a landslide. Secondly, we are forgetting that Obama has a huge cash advantage over McCain and can afford to put his resources in traditional red states. Kerry didn't have this luxury. Bottom line, your man is in trouble and time is running out.

____________________

1503er:

My man?

According to you my man (Obama) is not in trouble; that he's going to win in a landslide.

____________________

vmval1:

Im confused...

@1503: who are you actually supporting?

____________________

1503er:

vmval1,

I'm voting for McKinney (because I live in CA and can afford the luxury of voting for a liberal 3rd party candidate), but I'm hoping for an Obama victory.

That's what's funny about t his site. If you're not 100% a rah rah monster for Obama and try and look at things with a more objective or questioning eye then you're labeled an idiot, stupid, a McCain supporter, etc. etc.

____________________

DTM:

@wakeup

No, my point wasn't that Obama is cutting federal payroll taxes. My point was just that there is in fact such a thing as a federal payroll tax, and so it should be accounted for along with the income tax when discussing who pays what in federal taxes (and you should really include the employer's contribution as well). And one implication of this is just that making certain tax credits refundable does not mean that those people who do not pay federal income tax are necessarily getting a net cash transfer from the federal government. For that to be true, their total refundable tax credits would have to more than offset their payroll taxes.

____________________

tjampel:

2004 and 2008 are spoken of as being very different election cycles, not based on speculation, but on a ****load of polling. If statistics and mathematics are valid subjects these days (perhaps not in a creationist curriculum?) then the 100,000 or so interviews Ras conducts on party ID, plus a thousand or so polls showing affiliation and choices in all 50 states and nationwide, plus state statistics on new voter registration and changes in party affiliation all demonstrate a much different electorate right now than 4 years ago.

DO happen, countries get invaded and bombed....even ours, sadly, and Presidents do declare martial law in various places around the world, and candidates do get caught in bathrooms doing weird stuff, but, barring that please show us one reason, just one, why all of these statistics and trends indicated by the same are meaningless or can be expected to spontaneously reverse themselves in a few days.

____________________

tjampel:

Whoops...first sentence of last paragraph got cut off. Should read...

Will these trends hold for the next 15 days. Well, cataclismic events DO happen, countries get invaded and bombed....even ours, sadly, and Presidents do declare martial law in various places around the world, and candidates do get caught in bathrooms doing weird stuff, but, barring that please show us one reason, just one, why all of these statistics and trends indicated by the same are meaningless or can be expected to spontaneously reverse themselves in a few days.

____________________

tjampel:

Make that cataclysmic

____________________



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MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR