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US: Obama 47, McCain 42 (IBD/TIPP-10/14-18)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily(IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP)
10/14-18/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 40


 

Comments
cjk002:

There is something wrong with this poll. It has McCain beating Obama by 10 points among 18-24 year olds. It also shows Obama getting just 88% of the black vote while McCain gets 11%

Does this seem right to anyone?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm

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political_junki:

They are also tied among women!

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WhereisMitt:

The internals do look odd. Yet, they manage to come to a believable result, Obama up 5 points.

Something odd happened to the 18-24 cohort between the day 3 and day 4 releases.

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bill kapra:

Anything at all on state polls today?? I've seen nothing!

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political_junki:

Another silly internal:
Obama can tie McCain in the South???

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mysticlaker:

see http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for today's state polls.

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BOOMFAIL:

This pollster has to be on drugs. Internals show Obama leading in the Midwest 45 to 42. All recent polls in the midwest have Obama near 10 points up, and over 10 points in WI alone. (Not to mention Obama's state of IL.) Perhaps they have the geographical skills of Palin??? IL, WI, MN, MI, OH, etc.

While a 5 point lead 2 weeks out is still significant, I am having trouble with the internals of this poll.

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Observer:

Today's trackers

Gallop (Trad) +3 (O up 1)
Zogby.............+3 (M up 1)
Rasmussen.....+6 (O up 1)
IBD/TIPP.......+5 (M up 2)
Hotline...........+7 (no change)
Kos.................+7 (no change)

As you were really. Lead is now Obama +5 with no obvious outliers either way.

McCain it seems needs to run faster and faster every week just to say level according to Rasmussen. Once again they have announced a small increase in their Dem sample:

Next Week: 39.7 Dem/33.0 Rep
This Week: 39.3 Dem/33.0 Rep
10/6 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.3 Rep
9/30 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.5 Rep
9/23 Week: 39.0 Dem/33.6 Rep
9/16 Week: 38.7 Dem/33.6 Rep

This is just odd. By any reckoning McCain has reduced Obama's lead from 1/2 weeks ago yet Rasmussen respond by continuing to increase the Dem sample! Rasmussen pro-Republican? Not on these figures. Has he changed his spots or is he overcompensating?

It seems to me that the changes in Dem/Rep are a lagging indicator of Obama's recent surge. Interesting to see how the Obama lead on Rasmussen has not strayed very far from the Dem/Rep polling advantage.

Rasmussen seems to be getting out exactly what he puts into his poll. If there is a late surge by either side, say in the last week Rasumssen might not pick it up since it might mean a jump up or down in the Dem/Rep identification as well.

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1magine:

This is the real state of the race according to Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx

Tracks since last June. This race is not really as close as Rep would like. But not so far away Dems can't completely screw the pooch.

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KipTin:

You guys are over-analyzing a singular tracking poll. WHY? Isn't Obama far enough ahead for your liking?

FYI: Black vote for McCain only 7%. Not unusual.

-------

Geographical skills of Palin. What the heck? What is that relevancy? I do not see where "Midwest" states are limited to IL, WI, MN, MI, OH, and etc (?).

The U.S. Census defines the Midwest region as twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

So I guess it is the "etc." states that left you confused and math challenged.

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RossPhx:

Polling was limited only to pro-America parts of the country.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Get over it libs...young people are waking up and realizing that Barack Obama's plan for America is seriously flawed. That's why Obama is losing about 10 points among young people. Obama should have realized he could not take young voters for granted, yet with his support of gay "rights" and higher taxes, he has squandered this opportunity to connect with young folks.

McCain is proud to be leading in the vote among 18-24 year olds.

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cinnamonape:

"This is just odd. By any reckoning McCain has reduced Obama's lead from 1/2 weeks ago yet Rasmussen respond by continuing to increase the Dem sample! Rasmussen pro-Republican? Not on these figures. Has he changed his spots or is he overcompensating?"

ASFAIK We've never ever been provided an assessment of how and why Ras ascertains his partisan figures. So there is no way we can determine what component is causing him to change them upward or downward.

It may be that he has come to face the fact that large numbers of people are "affiliating themselves" with the Democrats in his poll or other polls.

Does he even ask the question about party affiliation in his polls? If he does then how is this used in his "weighting"? Or is it only used in his measure of partisan preference for candidates- in the cross tabs?

But I suspect if he started seeing a massive increase in people stating "I affiliate myself with the Democrats" far above stated registration figures...he'd change his "weighting method". Perhaps he's simply coming around to the way other polls "weight" and ignore partisan weighting...and use only inflexible demographic factors like age, gender and race.

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mysticlaker:

The internals don't get close to any other poll. None. Either the internals information is typed wrong, or this poll is fundamentally flawed.

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political_junki:

alankeyesisawesome:
PLEASE PLEASE, I want what you smoke man! My weed doesnt work as good as yours :)
What are you a boomshak wanna be? lol

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alankeyesisawesome:

@political_junki

I don't smoke pot...in fact, I support jail time for those who do...maybe minimum of 3 months for first offense, one year for a second offense.

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political_junki:

alankeyesisawesome:
OK then, lol. you should be put in nut-house if you are not high and you say this stuff :)

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mandalorianarmy:

Please stop responding to alankeyes. He's a troll of the worst kind.

Besides, the real Alan Keyes is running fro president and you see how much support he has.

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mysticlaker:

HaHa alankeys:

We are about to decriminalize position of up to 1 oz in Massachussets? Don't bother coming here...

PS. Gov Palin says she's smoked pot in her life...What's her punishment?

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/29/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4397109.shtml

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DTM:

Rasmussen's trailing party ID weights do indeed create a smoothing effect. That tends to make McCain supporters mad when they think McCain is gaining, and Obama supporters mad when they think Obama is gaining. Personally, I think his approach makes sense if Rasmussen is the only poll you are going to watch, but is largely redundant if you are doing something like watching the charts here at Pollster.

By the way, just because two different polls are outside the MOE from each other doesn't mean one or the other is an "outlier". Rather, different models can lead to significantly different results, but such "house effects" don't imply one or the other poll is an outlier.

Generally, if you are calling more than about 1 in 40 polls an "outlier" because they favor the candidate you don't like, you are probably misusing the term.

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KipTin:

Do you guys even have a clue about statistical sampling? Why do you expect everything to match? What do you not understand about "random" and "sampling error?" Polls are based on probability. Think of coin flips. Over a large numbers of flips heads and tails will be near equal. But the flips are not heads, then tails, then heads, then tails, etc. Nothing so neat and tidy as you guys keep trying to force from the polling data.

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KipTin:

Thank you DTM for your common sense discussion on "outlier."

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political_junki:

KipTin:
Obviously you are the one who doesnt have any clue about statistical sampling.

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KipTin:

So Palin "inhaled" when it was legal in Alaska. Should we also punish her if she legally drank beer or wine? Why this stupid obsession about Palin?

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political_junki:

KipTin:
I think you have the obsession about people having obsession with Palin. We were just joking around. Geez, are you the grumpiest person in this forum or what! lighten up

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KipTin:

If you are going to call me clueless... political_junki... then maybe you should point out where you disagree.

Bad habit of yours... calling other people clueless, stupid, etc. without focusing on the issue. Otherwise just namecalling on your part.

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political_junki:

@KipTin:
"Over a large numbers of flips heads and tails will be near equal. But the flips are not heads, then tails, then heads, then tails, etc. Nothing so neat and tidy as you guys keep trying to force from the polling data."

My point is this paragraph of yours. It doesnt make sense what so ever.

"Nothing so neat and tidy as you guys keep trying to force from the polling data.""

very neat results can be extracted if sampling size is big enough.
and it is not heads or tails since it the election case they are not equally likely

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KipTin:

Continually denigrating Palin may be "joking around" to you, but it is not funny. And in contrast the same Palin-bashers cry "racist" against anyone who would "joke around" about Obama.

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political_junki:

KipTin:
It is funny and many other people including herself find it funny, why else she went on SNL???????????????
You are the only one who doesnt find it funny :)

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BOOMFAIL:

@kiptin re: Palin having no clue about geography.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hN6DFQyDs

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KipTin:

It is your reading comprehension problem again. What do you not understand about probability of coin flips?

FYI... Coin flips helps explain "probability" and "random" because you do not seem to understand those concepts.

The only way to eliminate "sampling error" is to have a huge sample approaching the population being sampled. In this case, sampling error will be effectively removed on electon day after everyone votes. In the meantime, ignoring sampling error (and expecting "neat results") shows one's ignorance of statistical polling.

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mysticlaker:

Obama finds Obama funny. We are glad to make fun of Obama if you can come up with creative jokes...

Palin just gives us so much material, it makes it too easy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5SWQJWm6Tg

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DTM:

@KipTin

If I could eliminate two phrases from the usual discussion of polls, it would be "outlier" and "statistical tie". Frankly, I sometimes wonder if the concept of a margin of error is doing more harm than good, since sampling error is actually a curved distribution. But then I remind myself that it is step forward that people are aware of the concept of sampling error at all.

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political_junki:

@KipTin:
I have a masters in engineering, I understand probability. It is not my reading comprehension problem it is your extremely bad grammer.

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KipTin:

Why are you so biased as to take a simple misspeak (northwest instead of northeast) and use it to say that Palin has no clue about geography? This is similar to Obama misstating the number of states when he was in Oregon during the primaries.
--------

What you guys have to say about Palin is not meant to be "funny" but rather to be disparaging. Palin is classy in that she takes a lot of that garbage and makes it humorous. But some of that garbage is never funny.

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Observer:

DTM

I'm sure you're correct about what outliers. But like a lot of technical jargon the term has acquired a popular, not strictly accurate meaning as well.

I use it to mean a result which seems to be out of line with most other results. But I do try to bear in mind that sometimes it is the single outlier that turns out to be correct and the consensus that is wrong.

At the moment I would settle for a single outlier with a McCain lead. Then I could call it predictive of a future trend rather than an outlier!

Maybe it will happen sometime this coming week. There are after all an awful lot of plumbers out there.

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political_junki:

KipTin:
Problem here is neither Paling nor anybody else, it is your lack of sense of humor. Lighten up! What are you a school master?

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KipTin:

My bad grammar? You mean "syntax," right? And if you had trouble understanding me then maybe you should have asked for a clarification instead of calling me clueless. But I know you just could not help yourself because you are so conditioned to call others names instead of having a civil discussion. (I take it you are not a "civil" engineer.)

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Bigmike:

Any libs nervous about the numbers over the last few days? The national trend line on this site warms my little conservative heart.

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Batony:

I wonder if the Colin Powell endorsement will have unintended consequences. I just keep looking at the map, and the places Obama has to win...NC, VA, FL, OH, CO, NV and MO....have deep pockets of red, who are not exactly thrilled with Obama and now with a prominent black Rep. saying he is voting for Obama I don't know. Obama found out at that diner in NC, that there is still some resistance to him.

The media is not doing Obama any favors by claiming it's over. That infuriates voters.

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BOOMFAIL:
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BOOMFAIL:
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BOOMFAIL:
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chgo1:
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mathrocker:

@BigMike

Not really, there is no movement towards McCain if you look at the state polls that matter; deep red states getting darker means nothing.

The effect of Colin Powell's endorsement today will be telling by Tues/Weds, let's just see where the trackers rolling averages are by midweek before you get too excited

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cjk002:

@Batony:

Colin Powell is one of the most respected African Americans in the country, by both blacks and whites. This endorsement will probably help almost everywhere.

Obama only needs to win 1 or 2 of the states you mentioned to get to 270, by the way.

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Batony:

By the way, Tina Fey cannot hold a candle to Palin as far as looks. Even though Fey is 6 years younger. That was so obvious last night.

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BOOMFAIL:
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Bigmike:

mathrocker

I am not TOO excited. That's about all we con's have to be excited about. Numbers that are a little closer together than they were a few days ago.

I am a big Powell fan, I wish he had run. His endorsement won't change my vote. But maybe I won't worry quite as much IF Obama wins, since Powell seems to have some level of confidence.

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DTM:

@Observer

The problem with the "popular" sense of "outlier" as applied to polls is that it ends up being an excuse for cherry-picking. Basically, whenever there is a decent amount of spread between poll results, people just end up calling the best polls for the candidate they don't favor (or the worst polls for the candidate they do favor) "outliers" so that they can ignore them entirely, as opposed to including them in whatever averages or other analysis they are doing.

Now if people wanted to say just that certain polls seemed on the "high side" or the "low side" for a certain candidate relative to the other polls available at the same time, those would seem like appropriate terms for the polls people are identifying as "outliers". But of course that wouldn't license cherry-picking. And again, I think the whole point of calling a lot of polls "outliers" is so that people can just ignore whatever polls are on the high side for the candidate they don't like (or the polls on the low side for the candidate they do like).

In the end, though, I don't really care that much--resolute poll cherry-pickers are only fooling themselves. I just wish they wouldn't misuse statistical terms when rationalizing their cherry-picking.

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BOOMFAIL:

@chgo1

I found this interesting in the link about McShame's health: "But another peculiar facet of the Times story involves the McCain campaign's refusal, as of this weekend, to turn over Sarah Palin's medical information."

Perhaps there's more to the pregnancy story afterall ???

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mandalorianarmy:

Man Tina Fey is way hotter than Sarah Palin, she was just in that Sarah Palin garb. Check this picture out:

http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/famecrawler/2008/04/08-15/tina-fey-entertainment-weekly.jpg

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Batony:

@Cjk002:

That's the key...he needs to win just one. I'm not saying it's impossible, but of those states he needs to win, when was the last time any of those states voted for a Democrat.

I think we "pundits" and I'm guilty of it as well, tend to overestimate political endorsements. Sometimes they can have the opposite effect. Like Kennedy endorsing Obama over Hillary which pissed of the women in Mass and Obama got crushed there.

Now Powell will get demolished by right-wing radio in those states we mentioned where they are still strong...I just don't know. I wish he would have kept the two Republican judges comment and the Sarah Palin comment to himself.

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MNlatteliberal:

Just back from a day of canvasing for DFL (Democrat Farm Labor), and sorry to see about all the fun I missed here. I see Obama's numbers are improving, and the trolls frolicking in the tall grass. Life goes on.

Which brings me to Kip Tin,
Kip, don't mean to nit pick, but do you honestly believe that good grammar is possible without proper punctuation or syntax? Just curious.

Carry on

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mysticlaker:

@batony

Yes, any black person supporting a black person is racist. You are so right. Just like any white person who supports a white person is racist. Your logic is perfect.

Don't you understand this is why you are losing this election? Your party has narrowed, and can't bring enough hispanics, moderate whites, or aa's to the table. Mccain may be the death of republicans for the next 20 years. It's good to see many people cheering this on.

Speaking of NC, Obama has pride and dignity, allowing him to go into any situation and show he is a fine gentleman like that diner. Unlke McCain, who just shows how stupid he is everytime he opens his mouth (see this AM on foxnews regarding robo calls).

Have fun! Don't forget to use bleach to keep your Klan outfit nice and white!


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Batony:

@mandalorianarmy:

Sorry, but no way Tina is hotter than Sarah. Why don't we see a pic with Sarah all made up and then we can accurately judge.

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Bigmike:

BOOMFAIL

Perhaps a lot of crap is true.

I could sit here all day and say perhaps Obama is a Muslim, but that wouldn't make it true.

Save perhaps. When you have something you can back up, let me know.

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DTM:

@Bigmike

Obviously people who want Obama to win (which is not exclusively "liberals") would probably have prefered the polls to just keep getting more and more favorable for him. But if they were being realistic with themselves, they had to have known the polls were likely to level out at some point, and that there was a good chance they would actually tighten a bit before stabilizing again.

The obvious question, though, is whether we are just seeing such an expected leveling/minor-tightening, or in fact an actual change in the fundamental dynamics of the race. And it is just too soon to tell the difference.

So, I think it is understandable that McCain supporters would have a bit more hope right now, and Obama supporters a bit more trepidation. But personally, I'm just waiting for more data.

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mandalorianarmy:

Ah but as Powell said today, what if he was a Muslim? Would that disqualify him from being president?

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Batony:

@mysticlaker:

Huh? I called Colin Powell racist? Wow you must have me mistaken me for someone else. However, it is completely understandable for blacks of Colin Powell and John Lewis AGE to switch their backing to Obama. It doesn't mean they are racist at all. It is call racial pride. And that's just the facts. Now we can be politically correct on here and say it's b/c Obama is this or that, but the fact is he is black.

My side is losing the election? I don't have a side in this election. Just b/c I try to bring some balance to this site, does not mean I am voting for McCain.

Obama has pride and dignity, but he is also arrogant as hell.

Klan outfit? You must be old to use a klan reference. You are the idiot, unless the klan allows nonwhites to join.

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MNlatteliberal:

DTM:

@Bigmike

Obviously people who want Obama to win (which is not exclusively "liberals") would probably have prefered the polls to just keep getting more and more favorable for him

Actually, DTM, I for one, would prefer the polls to tighten a bit next week to put the fear into my fellow liberals/democrats/whatever, so that they get their butts out there volunteering, canvassing, driving folks to polls, challenging at the polls - anything to help the cause.

Because even though the Obama presidency is pretty much in the bag, we need coattails. We need him to blow McCain out of the water by as large margin as possible to provide our US Senate and House candidates as much of a boost as possible.

If on Nov 4th we wake up DETERMINED and ENERGIZED to do our part, then the margin is in the bag. Then we do get 58-59, and maybe even the magic 60 in the Senate. Then maybe we get the 20+ gain in the House.

Closer poll margins will guarantee us a larger GOTV. All imho, of course.

Having said that, I will be equally happy with a double digit Gallop lead going into Nov.4.

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mysticlaker:

@bathony

Sorry, that was meant of a different thread for someone else. My bad.

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Bigmike:

DTM

Things usually tighten a little right at the end. I think it is a little soon for that.

Also, what movement there is stared a little too early for it to be the 3rd debate or Joe the plumber. I am kind of scratching my head regarding a cause.

If some states don't move from where they are, if the polls are to be believed, it won't really matter. That is the more info I am waiting for. Will the states start moving the same direction.

mandalorianarmy

I was just making an example of things I could sit here and claim.

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mathrocker:

@BigMike

Glad to hear it alleviates some of your concerns :)

I don't think it will change the mind of too many staunch R's, but should help carry a larger chunk of those infamous 'undecided' folks these last few weeks.

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Bigmike:

mathrocker

As I said, I have tremendous respect for Powell. But I am not sure he moves a lot of votes. Mainly because he has been out of the spot light for a number of years. On the other hand, it sure doesn't hurt to have his endorsement. I don't see that as moving anyone toward McCain.

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cinnamonape:

BTW I just came accross this on a site called:

http://savagepolitics.com/?p=2233

I thought it might be interesting as to why Zogby has been out of the loop.

"Zogby: McCain Is Gaining, Race TightensSunday, October 19, 2008 11:14 AMHeadline above from Newsmaxhttp://zogby.com/

Sign up and they poll you every week."

If there has been an intensive effort by right-wing sites like savage nation to disrupt on-line polling it could have a major impact.

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mathrocker:

@Batony

I don't think race really played a factor at all in Powell's decision. McCain picking Palin played a much more significant role.

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DTM:

@MNlatteliberal

Fair enough, and I probably should have more clearly stated that I wasn't intending to speak for all Obama supporters.

@Bigmike

One possibility is that it was just the absence of something really dramatically bad happening to McCain in the last ten days or so--the market bottomed out 10/10, there have been no major stunts like suspending the campaign, and the debates are likely cumulative at this point. It might also be that going more aggressively negative (something that started over last weekend) has had a base-rallying effect for McCain.

But honestly, I really am waiting for more data before speculating too much.

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mathrocker:

@BigMike

Out of the spotlight yes, but the name recognition is still there. We'll see, it's not a gamechanger in and of itself, but like you said it certainly doesn't hurt. Takes a lot of bite out of the inexperienced argument.

The 1-3 days worth of press it will bring is probably a bigger issue at this point.

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Bigmike:

mathrocker

And therein lies McCains shortcoming, as far as campaigning goes.

He can't seize the headlines and make people stand up and notice him. The one time it happened, it was a plumber who did it.

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cjk002:

@cinnamonape:

I am registered with Zogby and I get polled every couple of weeks, and I can teel you that some of their questions could be classified as push polling. The last survey I took asked 6 negative questions about Obama on guns, immigration, and abortion, while asing none about McCain.

Combine that with the fact that Zogby weights their polling based on the 2004 voter turnout demographic which favored Republicans and you can see why their polling shows a much tighter race.

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HillaryForMcCain:

To my fellow dems that supported Hillary:

An Obama victory will be an end to Hillary's chances for becoming President. Never forget how we were treated by his campaign. If McCain wins, there is no way we can lose in 4 years. We will win every state...guaranteed.

As difficult as it may be, please vote for McCain. I have heard from many in the party that Hillary will continue to voice support for Obama but we must realize this is what she has to do. Hillary will serve our party much better in the long run. Obama will be a disaster and guarantee Republicon control for years to come.

We've waited 8.. We can wait 4 more.

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Kile Thomson:

fake Hilary supporter

lol

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Commander_King:

I voted Hillary in the primaries and im voting Obama now.

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cjk002:

@HillaryForMcCain:

Aside from the fact that you're obviously a fake, do you really think Hillary wants Sarah Palin to be elected Vice President? If Palin does win, she'll be so horrible that she could prevent another woman from getting elected for 50 years. Hillary knows this, that's why she's supporting Obama.

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