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US: Obama 47, McCain 43 (IBD/TIPP-10/21-25)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily(IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP)
10/21-25/08, n=886 likely voters, margin of error +/- 3
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 43
(10/20-24: Obama 46, McCain 42)

 

Comments
blakec:

Nice job pollster... I was told McCain would be leading by today in this poll, so I'm assuming this is a typo.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Even IBD now has Obama ahead by 4, I think Zogby will be boom's fav poll from here on out. That "tease" about Gallup showing a tightening race? RV's 51-42 same as yesterday, LV 1 50-45 down from 51-44 yesterday, LV 2 52-43 up one point from yesterday. Steady as she goes.

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mysticlaker:

Yay. I was told also. It must be a typo. Boom, can you correct it please?

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RussTC3:

The internals of this poll are just too out of whack to believe. Especially the A18-24 breakdown.

At least Obama has narrowed McCain's margin in this group down to 11 points. LOL

I haven't looked too deeply into this, but if you assume 9% turnout for this demo (exit polls have 18-29 at 17%) then you have to add two points to Obama's total.

And that's assuming Obama +11 within the group, which could actually be much higher.

Very, very odd poll.

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There has now been time for data to drop out of the 18-24 range, and it is still out of whack, that means they are consistently polling a bad sample.

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Atomique:

Yeah, this poll is basing its weighting data on the 2004 turnout. If Obama is up four according to the demographic breakdown of the 2004 electorate, then that means this is going to be a real blowout in 2008.

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asquared:

Don't tracking polls always sample the same group? If so, why does the size of the sampling always change?

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Viperlord:

And I care about this ****ty poll why?

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Angus Mc:

Way oversamples the South.
Totals are:
Northeast: Obama +20
Midwest: Obmama +2
South: McCain +10
West: Obama +16

If you added them all together and assumed equal weighting (25% each) that would be Obama +7.0. So IDB/Tipp must have the South as about 40% of the sample.

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Northeastern Republican:

if not for any other reason, they were the best predictor in 2004. makes for interesting reading.

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BarackO'Clinton:

OMG! SHOCK POLL!

The surge is working!

lol...drudge...

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The_Huntsman:

It's fine for Drudge, boomshak, and McCain to crow about this poll and Zogby... but to anyone who takes a minute to look at the internals and weighting, it's obvious that even a small Obama lead will translate to several points more in reality.

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blakec:

"There has now been time for data to drop out of the 18-24 range, and it is still out of whack, that means they are consistently polling a bad sample. "

Isn't this poll a 5 day sample and not a 3 day sample?

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PlayingItStraight:

Tracking Polls DO NOT generally call the same people. Those are generally panel surveys.

The question is whether or not your sample is or is not representative of the general population in terms of the result. You can have a valid topline even if the internals don't seem to make sense. However, I would question a poll whose internals appear a bit off -- or a lot off.

I do think it is a mistake to assume that the cell phone issue is ONLY a youth issue. More and more people do not answer their landlines unless they know the caller -- especially older households. And cell phone only is penetrating older demographics as well.

If anything, the methodologies that pollsters use are tending to understate undecided voters because the entire methodology pushes to classify voteres one way or the other.

I think the SCSU MN poll -- regardless what you think about the poll -- makes this clear. Their methodology did not have this shortcoming. This would be consistent with some of the shocking outcomes MN has produced over the years -- like Ventura beating HHH in the Governor's race.

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douglasdao:

IBD - Investors Business Daily = Far-right wing agenda. The story that they were the "most accurate" in 2004 is often stated, but never backed up. Regardless, they have been consistently pro-republican slanted this cycle. If even they have Obama ahead beyond the MoE, then Obama has a big lead.

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RWCOLE:

Would be interesting to find out the demographics and political affiliation of the "refused" population....it may be a growing bias.

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[nemesis]:

WOW, I can't believe I'm seeing this. SD is pink and Georgia is yellow. Absolutely insane.

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Kjartan:

The difference of the graphs 2004 and 2008 is remarkable:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html

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boomshak:

Obama is not ahead by 4 in this poll. This rounding bullsh*t. Obama is only ahead by 3.2. Nice job Pollster - not.

46.5% to 43.3%

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rami:

@nemesis

Yes that's impressive, but as i'm a chronical worrier, I'd rather see BO increasing his lead in the already blue states (306 EV's, more than enough), that close the gap in AZ or GA.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

We missed you! We were afraid you had capitulated and were hospitalized ;)

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boomshak:

HUGE HUGE HUGE DAY POLLING FOR JOHN MCAIN YESTERDAY - A GAME CHANGER!

Zogby goes from O+12 to O+3 (in yesterday's one-day polling) over 3 days. Gallup drops 2 for Obama from +7 to +5 amongst LV's (which means he probably polled only +3 like Zogby). IBD/TIPP drops from O+4 to O+3 (3.2 actually).

This means that 3 national tracking polls had it O+3 yesterday!

During last few days, McCain has surged in WI, NC and NH according to Rasmussen!

Yeah baby, Obama is done!

This race is tightening up fast!

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zigmeister:

boomshak baby:
Check out the 2 AZ polls listed today. Your guy can't even hold ground in his home state! Makes my day! :-)

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MNLatteLiberal:

boom, wb.
did you see, i started a support group for ya?

Save the Red Foundation for Boomshak Sanity (SRF4BS). You are my first charter member. Pick a number between 1 and 5 for your membership.

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political_junki:

"HUGE HUGE HUGE DAY POLLING FOR JOHN MCAIN YESTERDAY - A GAME CHANGER!"

We missed you too man! Welcome back :-)

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boomshak:

I refuse to consider state polling that gives Democrats 15 point sampling advantages, sorry.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

It is too bad the Arizona polling had to come out today or else the tightening thing would have been good news.

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Chester:

@ Boomshak:
Thank You!!! The worst thing that could happen now is complacency! The more voices we have like yours we have on Fox and, hell, why not CNN, the more the Obama camp will stay motivated!

The worst thing that could happen now is for the Dems to become complacent... there are 9 days left.. an election can be lose in a week if the team ahead gets lazy!

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political_junki:

This is from Rassmussen:
"Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. "
Boom: Dont tell me suddenly you prefer zogby over Rass, or maybe you do, do you? :-)

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Northeastern Republican:

to be fair, as of now john mccain appears to be holding his home state. in 2000 the democratic presidential nominee could not carry his. in 2004 the democratic vp nominee could not carry his.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

Take a DEEEP BREATH...sit down and read this excellent analysis I copied from the other thread....
carl29:

thoughtful here is my "comparison analysis" from the last three Sundays, so you can see the trend:

Sunday, October 26, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.7% McCain 44%
Obama +1.3, McCain -1 from the previous Sunday.

Rasmussen, Obama 52 McCain 44
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup**, Obama 52 McCain 43


Sunday, October 19, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 49.4% McCain 45%
Obama -0.8%, McCain +0.3% from the previous.

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.8 McCain 45.1
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 44

Sunday October 12, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.2 McCain 44.7

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.9 McCain 42.8
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 45

Posted on October 26, 2008 4:20 PM

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MNLatteLiberal:

boomshak:

"I refuse to consider state polling..."

attaboy!

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Cho:

and another great spot for boom to make a fortune on intrade, where obama reached a new all-timehigh of 87.8% chance to win today.

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boomshak:

MORE OBAMA WINGBAT THUGGERY:

Obama followers vandalize homes in Gainesville

http://hillbuzz.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/vandal1.jpg?w=510&h=586

Twenty-five residents of a Gainesville neighborhood woke up this morning to discover their homes had been spray-painted with an obscene comment about the 2008 presidential race. Several businesses were hit as well.

“This is clear voter intimidation,” Corey A. Stewart, At-Large Chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, said. “The residents targeted by these hoodlums all had McCain for President yard signs in their front yards.”

“Having your home defaced with obscenity because of political beliefs is a hate crime” Stewart said, “This is terrorizing the community.”

“Voter intimidation will not be tolerated in Prince William County. The residents notified the police. I am asking our Commonwealth’s Attorney to investigate. I will seek state and federal investigations as well. Prince William County must be safe for freedom of speech. If we can catch the reprobate who did this, we’ll prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law.”

Stewart added: “We’ve had ACORN and other nuts kicking around down here in Prince William for weeks. I suppose this was bound to happen eventually. But we won’t stand for it.”

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orange24:

Yeah baby, Obama is done!

Yeah, may as well fold up the tents. We gave it a great run, but boom says it's over, so that's that. Nice try, but I guess we'll have to shoot for 2012. Who cares if there's a dozen polls that show a double digit Obama lead? Clearly, those are all outliers. Who cares that the electoral path for McCain is quickly becoming a mathmatical impossibility? Boom says it's over, so lets all just give up. It was nice while it lasted...

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

"MORE OBAMA WINGBAT THUGGERY:"

Kinda like the chick with the backwards B? McCain suppoerters will do ANYTHING to try to win this one.

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SoloBJ:
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orange24:

MORE OBAMA WINGBAT THUGGERY:

You're not really going there are you, boom? If you haven't finished carving the "O" in your cheek yet, you better get moving. Obama is on his way to NC to see you.

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political_junki:

Today in Denver 100,000! people went to the bigO's campaign event!
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iD-73OJ4XvlVoOkaJpUuzv9OQCBw

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Cho:

but seriously boom, as your assessment of the situation differs so greatly from the markets, have you ever considered to take the chance and make money off it?

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boomshak:

IT'S MOMENTUM BABY:

Zogby - McCain momentum
Gallup - McCain momentum
IDB - McCain momentum

It's just beginning. Obama is collapsing.

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JerryTheAngel:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 43%.

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political_junki:

BOOM:
Gallup - McCain momentum?
whats up boom? bull****ting and lying as usual?

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political_junki:

BOOM:
This is from Gallup:
Where is the momentum?

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's likely voter estimates continue to show Barack Obama with a significant lead over John McCain. The traditional model estimates Obama with a 50% to 45% advantage in Oct. 23-25 polling, and the expanded model has Obama leading by 52% to 43%.

h7piwogabeg2rmxli8uika

f

Both models have shown fairly stable results since Gallup began tracking likely voter preferences in early October. In the traditional model -- which identifies likely voters based on current voting intentions and self-reported past voting behavior -- Obama's support has ranged narrowly between 49% and 51%, while McCain's support remains in the 44% to 47% range. Today's 50% to 45% Obama advantage matches the average for this model to date.

The expanded model -- which identifies likely voters based on current voting intentions only -- has generally shown Obama doing slightly better, with his support averaging 52% and ranging from 50% to 53%. McCain has averaged 44% in this model, and his support has been between 42% and 46% since early October.

Obama currently holds a 51% to 42% lead over McCain among all registered voters, which equals the average for October to date. That nine percentage point average lead is easily Obama's best of the campaign; his average lead was two points in September, three points in August, four points in July, and three points in June. In April and May, when Obama was still campaigning against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination, McCain and Obama were essentially tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential election trial heats. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones

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JerryTheAngel:

Barack Obama has vaulted to a 15-point lead over John McCain in New Hampshire, according to a new Boston Globe poll, a significant gap in a state that McCain considers his second political home and has long been a swing state in the race for the White House.

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orange24:

IT'S MOMENTUM BABY:

But, I thought we were only supposed to watch Rasmussen for the rest of the election? Please, boom, tell for good exactly which poll to watch for the rest of the election. We're lost without your insight. Please, give us hourly updates on exactly which poll is the "real" poll.

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straight talk:

McCain has 2-3 more days to change the trajectory of this race before Obama dominates the news and television media. Wensday Obama is Campainging with Bill Clinton in FL. Obama is going primetime that night! His poll numbers is going to go up again! So McCain get out IA and PA and fight! Because The O Team is going for the Landslide victory. LANDSLIDE ALERT! LANDSLIDE ALERT!

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zigmeister:

Boomshak:

**NEWS FLASH**
Obama followers vandalize homes across the nation:
Backwards "B"s were carved with dull knives all over homes with McCain signs out front. Oh wait, never mind, the homeowners did it themselves!

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political_junki:

By the way BOOM:
I forgot to answer to your this mornings ramble:
We have a liberal majority senate ----> Deal with it BOOM!

We have a liberal majority congress ----> Deal with it BOOM!

We will have a liberal president ----> Deal with it BOOM!

And you want to use box office sell of a movie to prove US is a right/center country?

BOOM:
How pathetic is that?

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bill kapra:

abc/wapo down to 7 52-45

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Pazienza:

Zogby writes today: In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611

IBD/TIPP (most accurate tracking poll in 2004)today: Obama 46.5 McCain 43.3

On Meet the Press (9/14/08) Chuck Todd said the following: On the Sunday before the election, he better be at 48 or above. Anything less than that--because he's going to lose 70 percent of the undecideds. I think the McCain folks know this; I think the Obama folks know this. So the key now is to get his numbers to 48 or above.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26702299/page/5/

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boomshak:

AN HONESTLY DESCRIPTION OF INCREDIBLE MEDIA BIAS TOWARDS OBAMA FROM ONE OF YOUR OWN:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6099188&page=1

Media's Presidential Bias and Decline

If you think the media bias towards Obama is bullsh*t, you need to read this piece by an ABC reporter.

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boomshak:

@bill kapra:

abc/wapo down to 7 52-45

Yep, polls left and right are closing by 2 points or more in one day. Even friggin ABC/Post. I thought Obama polled better on the weekends?

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iVote:

Is this just typical weekend tightening, or is it true McCain momentum?

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orange24:

I thought Obama polled better on the weekends?

I thought we were supposed to be tied today?

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political_junki:

"I thought Obama polled better on the weekends?"

What a moron, what do you have an IQ of 25? Every body knows Obama polls worse on weekends, you havnt learned that after this long on this site?

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CaliforniaIndie:

No. Last weekend showed the same closing of the polls across the board - until our man, Zogby, registered a 12 point expansion on Tuesday-Wednesday. Obama's not a weekend poll guy, or at least his crowd doesn't pick up the phones - who knows? He seems to hit his highs mid-week in announced polling (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday polling days).

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mac_1103:

Obama is not ahead by 4 in this poll. This rounding bullsh*t. Obama is only ahead by 3.2. Nice job Pollster - not.

46.5% to 43.3%

First of all, everybody rounds. You never complain when the rounding favors your guy. Second, McCain gained 0.7%. Yesterday, he lost 0.4%. That's called noise, not momentum. There were bigger swings in this poll last week, but those were also back and forth. Again, no consistent trend either way.

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laguna_b:

@Pazienza
"IBD/TIPP (most accurate tracking poll in 2004)today: Obama 46.5 McCain 43.3"

A broken clock is perfectly correct twice a day. One data point has zero statistical value....especially when compared to a trend and grouping of datapoints that refute the assertion.

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CaliforniaIndie:

If this is how McCain measures passion and enthusiasm, his campaign really is in trouble.
----------------------------------------
McCain dismissed questions this morning about polls show him dropping further and further behind Obama, saying they are "all over the map" depending upon the turnout model. A new Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll showed the race narrowing to five points, with Obama at 49 and McCain at 44.

"I choose to trust my senses as well as polls. And the enthusiasm at almost all of our campaign events is at a higher level that I've ever seen," McCain said. "I see intensity out there and I see passion."

Yet McCain's crowd of about 2,000 people inside the gymnasium at the university paled in comparison to the enormous gathering in a Denver park today for Obama. Estimates for Obama's crowd exceeded 100,000 people, according to city officials.

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laguna_b:

I hope carl forgive my plagerism but his analysis was very pursuasive and sober....Like Obama...

Take a DEEEP BREATH...sit down and read this excellent analysis I copied from the other thread....
carl29:

thoughtful here is my "comparison analysis" from the last three Sundays, so you can see the trend:

Sunday, October 26, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.7% McCain 44%
Obama +1.3, McCain -1 from the previous Sunday.

Rasmussen, Obama 52 McCain 44
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup**, Obama 52 McCain 43


Sunday, October 19, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 49.4% McCain 45%
Obama -0.8%, McCain +0.3% from the previous.

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.8 McCain 45.1
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 44

Sunday October 12, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.2 McCain 44.7

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.9 McCain 42.8
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 45

Posted on October 26, 2008 4:20 PM

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Pazienza:

laguna_b:

IBD/TIPP has ALWAYS shown Obama to be under Chuck Todd's key "48%".

John McCain vs. Barack Obama
Release Date McCain Obama Undecided Spread
October 26 43.3% 46.5% 10.1% +3.2 Obama
October 25 41.9% 45.8% 12.2% +3.9 Obama
October 24 42.3% 45.8% 11.9% +3.5 Obama
October 23 43.7% 44.8% 11.6% +1.1 Obama
October 22 42.0% 45.7% 12.3% +3.7 Obama
October 21 40.9% 46.9% 12.1% +6.0 Obama
October 20 41.4% 46.7% 11.9% +5.3 Obama
October 19 41.5% 46.6% 11.9% +5.1 Obama
October 18 39.8% 47.2% 13.0% +7.3 Obama
October 17 40.6% 45.9% 13.5% +5.3 Obama
October 16 41.6% 45.2% 13.2% +3.6 Obama
October 15 41.9% 45.2% 12.9% +3.3 Obama
October 14 41.9% 44.8% 13.3% +3.0 Obama
October 13 42.7% 44.8% 12.5% +2.1 Obama

http://www.tipponline.com/

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keithb:

I agree with those that pointed out the demographics that do not add up. According to the numbers, they skewed towards southen conservatives who are 18-24 yr old. I do not think anyone believes he is losing the 18-24 demo and winning the 65+ demo.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

All you the Republicans on this site should really stop talking about the polls. Whatever momentum is in the system is going to work itself out.

If I were you guys, I'd be more worried about the civil war thats breaking out in the Republican ranks.

Yesterday, both McCain and Obama spoke in Albuquerque. The McCain campaign expected 5,000 and a few hundred showed up. The Obama campaign expected 20,000 and 45,000 showed up.

McCain better go grab Palin. Stop by Neiman Marcus for some more hot clothes, and head for Ohio. If there is a problem, he needs to use his bipartisan peace making skills to quiet Palin's people.

If she secedes from the McCain camp, he's toast. She's his get out the base tool.

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johncoz:

@boomshak and Paziena

Tipp has a unique distinction, since having entered the fied on 10/13.

If you take the mean and standard deviation of each day's national polls (all of them -- no cherry picking), then Tipp's reported support for Obama is outside the standard deviation each and every day.

This is truly remarkable, particularly since on most days he is the only pollster to do so, and he managed to fall outside the SD even on days he recorded the largest spread.

But his figures for McCain's support have been consistently within the standard deviation.

What does this tell us? That Tipp's model is both methodologically flawed and deliberately skewed for his client.

The evidence is incontravertible.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Again, the Anchorage Daily News endorsed Obama. Maybe, Alaska will turn blue now.

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao!

Race has stabilized at O+7 or +8.

This equals a landslide.

Game over.

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How does a daily poll bounce all over the place from +6% to about +1% without exogenous events? O'Neil that owns IBD is way farther right of Rupert Murdoch. He makes Ayn Rand look like a socialist. To say this poll isn't biased is a joke.

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BritishObserver:

Boomshack.
As an observer in the UK, I can fathom that NC, NV, FL and OH are still in play for McCain providing he gains some momentum. But Virginia? Obama appears to be cementing his lead there. Thoughts?

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iVote:

@ British Observer

While he is far out of the woods here in Virginia, out of the states you listed he has the best chance of winning here.

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thoughtful:

If you look at Carl29 compilation of the lasT 3 Sunday's averages and JohnCoz does his own graph and what is apparent is a very stable polling average with fluxes from individual polls.

You can reasonably certain that Obama has a minimum of 7% in voter intention from her (Carl29) averages.

Ground game is going to be all important to maintain this advantage.

If johncoz is about maybe he can post his graph's url and then you have our own pollster.com's interactive trend.

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BritishObserver:

Thank you ivote.
May you explain why the states I listed as more likely to vote McCain are actually less favourable than Virginia? My reading of the polls was that there is a significant Obama swing in Va, higher than those seen in the states I outlined. Thanks.

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jonny87:

talking about how the states look colorado is probably the one to watch, with 80% of voters expected to vote early. if obama continues to ride high in colorado for a few more days he should have a great advantage.

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this poll is suspect...too much deviation from the others...besides, US overall polls mean zip, it's the EV count that matters...not looking good for mccain, he's defending red states in which obama has the lead...

this site considers ALL polls and predicts 350 EV's for obama at this point...last election their estimation was exact...

http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/

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BOOMFAIL:

boombatty thinking Obama polls better on the weekend is fricking hilarious. Everyone knows that rethugs love to stay home and watch their fox news all weekend, and thus are sitting around waiting for the phone to ring. Democrats are out having fun, enjoying life, or better yet, canvassing for Obama on the weekend.

Any way you look at it, the polls are widening from last weekend, which is horrible news for the McSame campaign as we wind down to the final week. The idiot is now even in danger of losing his own state for crying out loud!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

When's the Personnel Board going to rule that Palin abused her power?

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ArthurPE:

although the overall US average may be closing slightly (to me it's just noise, goes up a point, then down a point), the swing states are getting wider for obama...

so although mccain may be closing up the US overall, it's happening because he's getting more from his already won states, while obama is picking up in swing states AND some of the red states...

for example, mccain gets a point from say TX (which he will win regardless) obama gets 1/2 point from say OH or VA...

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johncoz:

thoughtful:
"If johncoz is about maybe he can post his graph's url and then you have our own pollster.com's interactive trend."

Sure. This is an eight-day (I've left in last Saturday, which was Obama's lowest point in three weeks) graph of the five 3-day tracker means, weighted by sample size.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3286/2976255438_eac5917ca8_b.jpg

I haven't processed today's results yet, but there looks to be no big change.

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ArthurPE:

@johncoz:

very nice...

I'm sure both candidates have some high powered mathematicians on payroll...

and obamas are liking what they see more than mccains...these kind of guys don't put 'spin' on the numbers...and they look bleak for mccain

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johncoz:

ArthurPE:
"although the overall US average may be closing slightly"

It's not. Nor has there merely been noise over the past week. Obama's support and the spread grew in a stastistically significant way, while McCain's fell.

See URL to the eight-day graph I posted above.

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johncoz:

btw, my figures are entirely consistent with RCP's. Last weekend they had the spread at 5, while this weekend it has been 7.5-8. They are also almost identical to Pollster's. So three different methodologies, same conclusion.

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BarackO'Clinton:

*SIGH*

We see this every 5-7 days.

Obama is up by 7-10 points.

A friggin' Zogby poll come out showing Obama up by 2-3 and the blogosphere goes crazy with right wing trolls saying the race has tightened.

Two days later, it's back to Obama plus 7-10.

Rinse and repeat....just wait until Tuesday when O is back up by double digits, and then into the weekend Zogby will probably have the race tied and the networks will be going crazy saying it'll be a long night.

Then they'll call VA at about 7:30 and the champagne corks will start popping around the world. Like the last scene of Return of the Jedi - a party in every major city.

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA WILL LOSE.

The networks will be dying to call VA with 1/100th of 1% of the vote in an Obama ahead by 2 votes, but they will be shocked.

The funniest part of Nov 4th? The dazed look on the faces of the MSM. It will be priceless.

They will say, "Well, there is one thing we can say for sure, there will be a lot of lawyers out tomorrow to look into these allegations of Republican fraud and intimidation..."

____________________

boomshak:

Obama lost 2 points on Gallup today. If he does only half that badly each day until Nov 4th, McCain will be up by 4 on election day. If McCain only picks up 1/2 a point a day, the race will be tied.

McCain will win. He cannot be stopped.

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boomshak:

FROM MCCAIN:

"Those polls have consistently shown me much farther behind than we actually are,” Mr McCain said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press. “We’re doing fine. We have closed [the gap] in the last week. We continue to close this next week. You’re going to be up very, very late on election night."

This has also been confirmed by Obama's own internal polling.

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak

I'm glad you gave us the McCain quote, since it clearly shows that he, like you, will not let facts get in the way of a good story.

By any and every measure last week has seen Obama increase his lead -- just look at the national graphs on RCP and Pollster.

Rasmussen has Obama at a historic high. Gallup is effectively no change.

IBP/Tipp and Zogby combined have a smaller daily sample than Rassmussen or Gallup.

McCain's people know all of this -- he just lies. Maybe he thinks he has to, but it's not a pretty sight.

____________________

ArthurPE:

gallup
10/25 52 vs 43 +9 (he actually gained 3)
10/22 51 vs 45 +6
10/19 52 vs 43 +9
10/16 51 vs 45 +6

btw: how does mccain know 'how far' he is really behind? divine intervention on palins part?

you have access to obama's internal polling?

it's all over for mccain...even he knows it...
his party sure does...

____________________

Mike:

Charles Fried endorsed Obama??? This thing is ova.

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saywhat90:

funny how in the beginning of the week the rcp average was 5 and now its 7.6 and you say the polls are tightening. plus the number for obama this sunday are better than last sundays.true obama does not have a dominating lead but the lead is steady and pols tend to always fluctuate up and down over the week. did the same in 2004. and last mccain gained in two polls. gallup is a wash because of the three polls they have obama gained in two and we dont know which one give the mst accurate data. i doubt its the traditional because the old numbers of 2004 do not apply any longer.

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MaxMBJ:

What a lot of you Dems are missing is the X factor in these polls. This election is treading on new ground: first African-American candidate, first Republican woman, no encumbants running, stock market in freefall, turmoil across the globe ... this baby is different than anything we've ever seen, at least in the Polling Age.

Since all polling -- indeed, all predictive work -- is based on the past, the polls are swimming in the dark. Hence the huge discrepancies between them.

It is clear that Obama has a lead, it is not clear how great it is or how deep it is. One other point I left out of the uniqueness of this election is playing a huge role in the polling results we're seeing: the Cult of Obama. His support is very, very deep among those who have drunk the Kool-aid. That is clearly seen in these huge rallies he's having.

But Palin is having almost equally huge rallies and nobody's arguing that is a sign McCain will win. Her support is like Obama's: deep but not wide.

When the time comes to actually push the ballot button, I believe a lot of middle class Americans will hesitate. He is a known quality and now, so is his running mate. But due to the MSM's failure to vet Obama, to ask him any tough questions, he remains an enigma, a tabula rasa, a question mark. Did he pal around with terrorists? Maybe.

And in that voting booth with the curtain drawn more than a few folks are going to change what they told the pollsters.

Personally, I think Boomshak is gonna prove to be a profit.

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jobloblo:

Once again (been repeating this on each of these whacko polls) the underlying demographics are ridiculous. Already clear the overpoll the south. As for politics:
Conservatives: 44%
Moderates: 41%
Liberals: 15%

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ArthurPE:

polls are not based on the 'past', but the present...although not predictive, they do show a trend...

other X factors:
the young/cell phones, favors obama
new voters, dems have the advantage
minority voters, obama
the repubs are the encumbant
people don't like mccain
the economy
reverse bradley, in fact in the last 10 years, it's been eliminated...
palin, she scares people, coupled with a 72 yr old cancer survivor and POW, for good reason

if mccain was ahead, all these numbers would be valid, since it's obama, they are suspect

this thing is getting wider...the EV tells the story, national polls mean very little...
obama > 360 EV's and 53% of the vote

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