10/9-13/08; 1,036 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interivews
Obama 48, McCain 39, Nader 2, Barr 1
How boomERRATIC & KipTin are going to spin this one?
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:44 AM
I guess they'll tell you with Palin in NH today and McCain ready to go rabid and start screaming about William Ayers tonight, that the race will be "statistically tied" by Sunday.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:47 AM
McCain below 40? Yikes. Does anyone know if there's ever been a historical case of a comeback from a margin this big?
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:52 AM
You in Iowa - I'm in Des Moines.
Here's a quick look that gives you some idea about margins and comebacks
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:53 AM
I am watching Palinocchio campaigning in NH right now. I think if I were a Republican I would change my party affiliation upon the choice of such a lame woman as VP
I don't see how NH's 4 EVs are going to help McCain. What is the McCain campaign's electoral strategy? If they lose any of the following FL, VA, OH, IN, MO, CO or NC they lose the election. Those 4 EVs don't enter into it. I'm glad they are wasting time and money, but they don't have a clue.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:55 AM
I am watching Palinocchio campaigning in NH right now
LOL - Palinocchio is a good one! I was always partial to hilbilly-half-wit, but I think I'll start using Palinocchio :-)
Right now, this link re Ayers is No. 4 on the "Morning Top Ten . . . " on the right side of the webpage. By a WSJ guy. Needs to be read.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:58 AM
Wow...McCain is now slipping below 40 in many polls. I was just thinking about the talk about things "closing" towards election day, and here's what I see:
Obama is hovering around 50 pretty consistently now...it's McCain's numbers that are dropping...which to me suggests that McCain leaners are now moving towards undecided. Many of these people are obviously not enthralled with Obama. Of this group, some will vote Obama, some will vote McCain, some will vote for someone else...but a significant number will not vote. This will close the gap somewhat, but doesn't indicate any change the feelings of the electorate.
DecaturMark, I've given up a long time ago trying to figure out McCain's strategy. It seems to be, "wake up, throw a dart at the map, let's go there today." Maine? sure. PA? Yea, we're losing by 15 or so but we can still do it. MN? Why not, we have a shot? How about going to WI and whipping up racial fallacies and fear-mongering? That's bound to turn the state red for us.
It's.. beyond explanation.
McCain just gets deeper in it. Theoretically the gap should be closing and its getting wider.
There is no sign yet of tightening.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:59 AM
its near impossible to dip below 40, unless some republicans are deserting!
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:02 PM
It should be noted that Thomas Frank is the token liberal columnist for the WSJ. He wrote the book "What's the Matter with Kansas". I think Mr. Frank is correct, but he is not representative of the WSJ opinion pages.
As for Mr. Ayers, it seems clear from the latest NYT poll that the attacks on Sen. Obama on this subject have backfired on Sen. McCain.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:03 PM
McCain is a genius. Palin's appearance in NH will flip that state immediately in his favor. That's 4 electoral votes so now all he has to do is .... oh crap. Let me get back to you.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:09 PM
Ayers and Obama share the same educational philosophy... No need to mention terrorism, just education.
drdr, they clearly have, with the exception of firing up the most extreme of their "base." But then, it's the delusion that the majority of Americans are in-line with the far-right views that has led to the crumbling of Republican power to begin with. So this shouldn't surprise anyone.
If they've got Palin campaigning in NH, they're pissing up a rope. Evangelicals and hard core nutsos aren't a major element in this electorate. People here are classically libertarian - fiscally conservative, socially laissez-faire, with no interest in a political illiterate like her. They are politically sophisticated and issues-oriented, not interested in the mad Palin's bellowings.
I have no idea why this is a strategic priority.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:11 PM
New CNN/Time polls of VA,CO,GA,MO, FL
Obama up in Fl,VA,CO
McCain up in GA, MO(+1)
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:12 PM
McCain didn't poll below 40 in any poll after the Convention...until last week. This is at least the 3rd recent poll where he is below 40.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:16 PM
Obama is polling over 50 percent in VA,CO and FL in that poll. And holds a ten point lead in VA. Huge numbers.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:19 PM
I've made up a mardi-gras mask for Palinocchio ... now if they will only come back to Iowa - I could use it!
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:24 PM
While I am not a McCain supporter, I have to admit that his strategy does make a strange kind of sense. If he were only to campaign in the toss up states that he has a chance of winning (ie, MO, IN, NC, WV based on recent polls), then he is basically admitting defeat. If those are the true battleground states then there really isn't any way he can win the election.
He is hoping that the polls will tighten up in the remaining 3 weeks before the election and that some of the "traditional" swing states will come back into play for him. If that happens, then his time spent in those states will not have been wasted. It is basically a "Hail Mary" strategy, but at this point thats all he really has.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:43 PM
man, I can't wait for McCain to lose it tonight. He might turn into Nicholson from The Shining..."Here's Johnny!"
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:45 PM
What is Ipsos and is it credible? Less than 3 weeks!
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:49 PM
I tend to follow ericsp28's logic. One of McCain campaign's bigger blunders was pulling out of Michigan so publicly. If they are perceived to be pulling out of another big state or swing state, they really will be raising the white flag. NH was a huge base of support for McCain during the primaries, so he can't be perceived as abandoning it. Enthusiasm among the Republican faithful has been dropping steeply of late--check out a conservative blog or forum sometime: they're passing out the suicide pills--and he needs to rally them if he's going to have a shot at this. It's a long shot and it means giving up ground in other important areas, but it's necessary if he wants to stay alive.
I'm a full-bore Obama supporter BTW, so take this with whatever amount of salt you choose.
Posted on October 15, 2008 1:03 PM
GALLUP LEAD COLLAPSES TO +3 AMONG LIKELY VOTERS!
"The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, though with Obama still ahead. Today's results show Obama with a three-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 46%. That is slightly closer than the average five-point advantage for Obama among traditional likely voters since Gallup began measuring them last week.
Posted on October 15, 2008 1:08 PM
Agreed with eriscp28 as well. If you admit that you're fighting for EV 155-220 or so, there's really no way you're going to win in the true swing states (i.e., states that will actually swing an election,) such as OH and FL.
McCain needs a change at the national level for him to have a reasonable chance of victory. If such change were to occur, he'll retake the lead in states like MO, IN, NC without having to campaign in those states.
If McCain is actually fighting in MO, he's dead in the water.
Posted on October 15, 2008 1:11 PM
McCain is already mentally sure of losing, I'm sure. Of course he keeps fighting and he should but he knows the situation even better than we do for sure. Only a miracle will save him and he's going to try to finish this campaign with dignity (by not pulling out of Pennsylvania, cooling down the rhetoric etc.), going down with boots in his feet.
Posted on October 15, 2008 3:13 PM
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