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US: Obama 48, McCain 41 (APGfK-9/27-30)

Topics: PHome

AP-GfK
9/27-30/08; 808 LV, 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1

 

Comments
PortlandRocks:

Further confirmation. InAdv/PollPosition now shows Obama up in NV. CNN also does. McCain - GOODBYE.

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Commander_King:

See ya later McStunt!

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IndependentThinker:

No way!!!
How come OBama is leading +7
This is downrightly outrageous an biased, isn't it boomSPIN ?
Let's get the SPIN machine started!!

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Viperlord:

NO! THE EVIL LIBERALS HAVE TAKEN OVER ALL THE POLLS! DAMN THEM! I did it for you boom!

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H2OPlus:

As Nate Silver (538.com) said on his interview with Dan Rather, you can't put much reliance on just one poll (i.e. Gallup today). You have to look at them all. "If a poll says it has a margin of error of 3-4%, it's really like 6-7%."

It's impossible to dispute this Obama trend.

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thoughtful:

Eric,

The link for the internals/story not working,

Can you fix it? Thank you

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Timdicator:

@george

I was going to vote for Obama ... but you've showed me the light. Thank you.

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1magine:

Lies, lies, all liberal, latte sippin, tree hugging, peace loving, humanity accepting, multicultural, open minded, progressive commy freakin lies.

OMG -the sppirit of boommy woomy just moved through me. Perhaps he has passed through to a better place. Of course any place is better than squarely between Limbaugh's cheeks.

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Rokne:

This is just anotehr example of polls having a bias in favour of the candidate who is likely to get the most votes.

It's not meaningful.

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IndependentThinker:

@Timdicator

Thanks to george McCain just got 2 votes you and myself even though as a NY resident I doubt that would make a difference
LMAO!!!

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vmval1:

Um George, just so you don't look like an illiterate inbred redneck, maybe you want to repost - I have fixed your post so that it has a rudimentary level of spelling, grammar and punctuation. This way, at least you can fool us into believing that you have a Grade 1 education.

Barack Hussein Obama is a threat to America. This Muslim will make all white people poor, so why are you guys supporting him? This guy has friends who want to destroy America. This Muslim wants to make white people like me his servant, so wake up white people. Don't fall for this terrorist, because this Muslim will make your life hell.

Asshole...

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RS:

Calm down, people... Still 5 weeks and 3 debates to go.
I think Nate Silver suggested in today's WaPo chat (see Mark B's earlier post for the link) that complacency is more likely than a bandwagon effect - people think a candidate's gonna win by a landslide, and so don't show when it matters.
These polls are good for morale, but discipline and focus on Nov 4 are more important.

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1magine:

This is all part of JM plan to save the economy - look old foolish and risky - then when his In-trade number hits 30 - BOOM HE BUYS IN A MILLION PLUS. Suddenly JM springs to life, Palin becomes Kissenger. On Nov 5, JM having won the election makes 70Mill on In-trade, and putting Country First - he turns it all over to the Federal treasury to bail out the system, and then donates 5 of his seven houses in order to build up a surplus similar to BC's.

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fed:

Obama +4 in FL ia a suffolk poll. He is up in the last 5 FL polls. It is very unlikely McCain could win without FL and VI

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Atomique:

OUTLIER! McCain is up 92 points!

ROFL

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boomshak:

Show me the internals. Show me the weightings.

Oh and BTW, that dude over at 538 is a MAJOR OBAMA HACK. I mean, read his narratives sometimes. HUGE Obama hack.

I am guessing this poll gives democrats at least a 10 point sampling advantage.

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Viperlord:

Spin Baby Spin! Lol, you must not have gone to 538 at McCain's peak, he had a large advantage there.

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Atomique:

LOL America is one huge Obama hack, too, boomshak. We're sending this guy to the White House and you're going to have to just deal with that.

Yes we can! ¡Sí se puede!

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boomshak:
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faithhopelove:

McCain leads in 0 of the 10 national polls released today.

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vmval1:

go to http://surveys.ap.org/ and download the file on top of the page. That'll give you the internals.

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Ryan in MO:

@fed

you mean VA...

VI can't vote for president, and PR would probably get the oppurtunity first.

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vmval1:

Weighting - Dems 40, Repubs 29

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boomshak:

OK, BULLSH*T ALERT!

I found the sample used in the poll. Just as suspected, 11 point advantage given to Democrats! God, can't you people do a single poll without CHEATING?

Democrats: 40%
Republicans: 29%

What a f*cking joke...

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BOOMFAIL:

Nothing to see here. Just further confirmation that McSame is sinking like a rock.

Landslide Baby Landslide

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boomshak:

@vmval1:

Weighting - Dems 40, Repubs 29

Even you have to admit, that is pretty pathetic. But it's from AP, what do we expect?

If you weight this poll the same as Rasmussen, You get Obama +4 just like Gallup.

Epic-fail.

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Ryan in MO:

@boom

is george usa one of yours? do you claim him?

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boomshak:

Democrat – strong 21 19
Democrat – moderate 19 19
Republican – strong 13 11
Republican – moderate 16 14

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vmval1:

McCain only leading by 9 in texas and 8 in Mississippi. If he has to start defending TX and MS it is G A M E O V E R

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vmval1:

@Boom:

What do you mean 'even me...??' I normally discount anything above a Dem advantage of 8. I think Rasmussen's 5.5 is too low though.

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boomshak:

@Ryan in MO:
@boom

"is george usa one of yours? do you claim him?"

I don't know anyone here personally. I'm just here to annoy the moonbats :)

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fed:

Wisconsin, Obama +9 insider advantage poll just released.

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boomshak:

QUESTION FOR THE MOONBATS:

Why the hell, every time we see a poll put out by one of Obama's MSM minions, do we always have to endure this bullsh*t OVERSAMPLING of Democrats.

I mean, it just gets annoying.

Why the constant need to CHEAT and bury it in the numbers hoping no one notices? I mean , if it is 'accidental', you would have to believe that just once they would 'accidentally' oversample Republicans but they NEVER do.

You should be embarrassed.

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fed:

sorry that Wisconsin poll is from stratigic vision

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boomshak:

Let me put it this way, If Democrats really do have a PARTY AFFILIATION ADVANTAGE of 10-16%, they should have no trouble winning the White House and both houses of Congress with veto-proof majorities.

Obama should be ahead by 15 points on RCP and not 4.9%.

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scjmcy2k:

Hi All, I have lurked here for months and I have finally blown a gasket at boomshack. I am so sick of reading you fight from both sides of a poll when it benefits you. Look man, polls are polls, just admit your guy is down and has work to do. Thats it??? I read your spin for months and today you finally pushed me to create a account here

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak:

If that party affiliation advantage really does lead to a 15 point advantage, then shouldn't polls that use that advantage show a 15 point lead? Yet they use this advantage and do not show such a lead. So you are making a leap of logic, claiming that this advantage will lead to a result that has no proof behind it.

You have no actual reason to discredit this advantage. Instead you've latched onto the word "cheating" and you think that screaming the word "cheating" over and over again will validate your crazy claim, instead of what that's really doing, which is making you look like a huge jerk.

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RS:

I am not sure this poll weights by party ID. In the Sept 12 poll, Dems were +2 (M+4), compared to +11 here (O+7) - this appears to be self-identification. Almost makes me believe folks don't want to be associated in any way with the GOP...
Though it does raise the question of the Shy Tory factor... I also read that in 1996, Republicans lost interest in Bob Dole and focused instead on Congressional races - maybe that will happen again in 2008!

Folks may call Nate Silver a Obama hack - but such ad hominem attacks don't work. Logic, please.

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pbcrunch:

OK, the party-weighting complaints are getting annoying. Dems have historically had an advantage in this area, since the Great Depression.

The "veto-proof majority" argument is a red herring. The reason Dems do not have veto-proof majorities is because many Dems -- especially those in the South -- have not actually voted Democratic since Carter.

Please come up with a better argument. The more certain people spout that argument, the more likely we think you're a 7th grader.

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PortlandRocks:

Hey everyone. Say BUH BYE to George USA. Just got an email from Mark Blumenthal and he's been KICKED from the site.

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PortlandRocks:

BOOMFAIL you're looking desperate. Silver lining? WAIT FOR IT!

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Scott W:

@BOOM - can you please tell me - is there a valid poll out there today? PLEASE there is got to be one you buy into!

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thoughtful:

Well

Anyway Boomshak wants to slice it or dice it this and other polls point to an Obama lead of at least 6%.

That lead is now being reflected in the States polling just take a look at all the polls this week from Florida. They just reflect the Nationals.

I don't think Boomshak that Sarah can win this on her own as you and I both agree the guy at the top of ticket has been found wanting.

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george:

Before I get inadvertently kicked off, I want to indicate that I'm just plain "george"--not "george usa"-- and have made a few posts. I don't know what this other guy said, but should I say something in the future, please read on.Thank you all. Good night and good luck.

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faithhopelove:

Here is yet another national poll released today showing Obama ahead:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/53334.html

McCain is now 0 for 11 on the day.

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RS:

@pbcrunch:
Not sure if you were referring to my comment (just above yours). I don't care if there's no pid-weighting... because I don't put much stock in any one single poll, and neither should anyone else, imo.
For instance, there are some who swear by the dkos/R2K poll, and I say they are nuts. It's the composite, stupid! :-)

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RussTC3:

Ignore the "are you a Democrat or Republican?" question. First off, there are more registered Democrats in this country than registered Republicans. Additionally, many Republicans have been reluctant to identify with their party of late, instead choosing to identify as a Democrat, or more often an Independent.

The fairer comparison is where voters stand POLITICALLY (i.e. Liberal, Conservative or Moderate). You see, while a person can easily change their party, they don't often (if ever) go from being a Conservative to a Liberal or vice versa.

When you look at this poll's Liberal/Conservative/Moderate breakdown it corresponds almost exactly to the AP's last poll:

Liberal 21 (20)
Conservative 38 (40)
Moderate 39 (37)

So what am I getting at? The entire argument about Dems being oversampled, or Republicans being undersampled is quite dumb.

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PortlandRocks:

Obama up 9 now in CBS poll. I know BOOM. Fail. ROFL

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao! ANOTHER excuse!? lol, pathetic, pathetic boomshak.

fail!

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boomshak:

7 MAJOR POLLS TODAY SHOWING OBAMA +6 OR LESS:

ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Gallup Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 2746 RV 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 902 RV 47 42 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/25 - 09/30 800 LV 48 46 Obama +2

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faithhopelove:

With the release of the CBS poll (Obama +9), McCain is now 0 for 12 in national polls on the day.

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Bigmike:

RussTC3

Your logic looks fuzzy to me. If Con's outnumber Lib's 38-21, aren't you making Boom's argument for him?

It would be hard to believe Moderates break more than 60-40 in either direction. Your numbers suggest Cons should be up 55-45.

As for people rarely if ever changing their politcal stripes, I absolutely disagree. There is a natural tendancy to become more Con with age. Lib's have ALWAYS won with the younger voters, at least in my lifetime. As those younger voters age, why don't libs poll better with older people? Because they get more conservative.

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boomshak:

SCARY SCARY HAPPENINGS IN OHIO TODAY:

As you may know, the Democrat Secy of State of Ohio has created a plan whereby individuals can register and vote the same day. Ohio law states that this is illegal because you must be registered for 30 days to vote. However, the Sec'y of State says that law does not apply as these people are not actually "voting", they are just "casting their ballots" to be counted later.

Um, ok.

THE EVEN SCARIER PART:
Anyone voting can list their address as a homeless shelter. Because of this, a honelss person could vote 10 or more time at different locations with no way to trace them at all.

REPUBLICAN POLL WATCHERS TURNED AWAY:
The Sec'y of State has also set forth rules that Republican Poll Watchers shall NOT be allowed to observe the voting (as has been the tradition for many many years).

CONCLUSION:
Anyone can vote any number of times with no way for anyone to ever track that person down. All this at the hand of the Democrat Sec'y of State.

Today this, tomorrow the KGB.

You guys want THIS? really?

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boomshak:

Do any of you liberals in here actually approve of the activities in Ohio?

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RussTC3:

Bigmike:

I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Boom keeps insisting that the only reason Obama is up in these national polls is because the pollsters are over sampling Democrats
(or under representing Republicans). I'm making a point that the L/C/M breakdowns show that the pollsters are on average, making the right call. This country is more conservative than liberal, but at the same time, more moderate than both extremes.

My point is proven today with the CBS News poll that has Obama up by 9. Boom would have us all believe that Obama gained because CBS sampled more Democrats, however, check this out:

CBS News Registered Voters 9/27-30 (9/21-24)
Democrats 32.5% (30.2%)
Republicans 35.6% (38.9%)
Independents 31.9% (30.9%)

The Party ID went from +8.7 in favor of Democrats all the way down to +3.1 in favor of Democrats, yet Obama's lead went from +5 among registered voters (47/42) to +9 among registered voters (49/40).

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RussTC3:

Sorry, I turned around the Democrats/Republicans. Here are the correct breakdowns.

CBS News Registered Voters 9/27-30 (9/21-24)
Republicans 35.6% (38.9%)
Democrats 32.5% (30.2%)
Independents 31.9% (30.9%)

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RussTC3:

UGH, I hate not being able to edit posts. Let's try this one more time.

CBS News Registered Voters 9/27-30 (9/21-24)
Democrats 35.6% (38.9%)
Republicans 32.5% (30.2%)
Independents 31.9% (30.9%)

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ErnieLynch:

SCARY SCARY HAPPENINGS IN OHIO TODAY:

As you may know, the Democrat Secy of State of Ohio has created a plan whereby individuals can register and vote the same day. Ohio law states that this is illegal because you must be registered for 30 days to vote. However, the Sec'y of State says that law does not apply as these people are not actually "voting", they are just "casting their ballots" to be counted later.

Rebuttal; Waterboarding is not torture

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zotz:

"Do any of you liberals in here actually approve of the activities in Ohio?"

Stupid Question
We know about Rep election tactics. Watch "Recount".

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ErnieLynch:

THE EVEN SCARIER PART:
Anyone voting can list their address as a homeless shelter. Because of this, a honelss person could vote 10 or more time at different locations with no way to trace them at all.

Rebuttal: We democrats create our own reality

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ErnieLynch:

REPUBLICAN POLL WATCHERS TURNED AWAY:
The Sec'y of State has also set forth rules that Republican Poll Watchers shall NOT be allowed to observe the voting (as has been the tradition for many many years).

Rebuttal: Poland is not a problem, we need more watchers in Afghanistan.

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mysticlaker:

BOOM CHICKADOO
BOOM CHICKADOO

Can't stand the truth
so spews DOO-DOO

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zotz:

ErnieLynch-
They cannot register ten times or if they do your people can check it. This is a non-issue.

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vmval1:

@Ernie Lynch:

Shut Up, grow a brain, and then come back.

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RussTC3:

I need to correct myself again. I used the unweighted numbers, when I believe I should have been using the weighted registered numbers. The Democratic party ID changed (in favor of the Republicans), but not to the extent I assumed:

Republicans 30.6 (29.5)
Democrats 37.3 (37.1)
Independents 32.2 (33.5)

So the party ID went from Democrats +7.6 to Democrats +6.7.

Regardless, my main point holds. The party ID shrunk, yet Obama made a significant gain.

Now my head hurts. LOL

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kerrchdavis:

@Russ

so basically what you're saying is that the CBS poll showing Obama at +9 actually under samples democrats relative to the other major pollsters such as Rasmussen thus rendering Boomshaks theory as, one again, complete garbage?

You're awesome :)

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kerrchdavis:

@Russ

oh, ok..so the Party ID does not undersample dems. In fact, they're pretty close to spot on. And Obama is up by 9?

Great! :)

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kerrchdavis:

This is a thing of beauty:

Florida InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition McCain 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Mississippi Rasmussen McCain 52, Obama 44 McCain +8
Texas Rasmussen McCain 52, Obama 43 McCain +9
Tennessee Rasmussen McCain 58, Obama 39 McCain +19
National Gallup Tracking Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 42 Obama +5
Ohio SurveyUSA Obama 48, McCain 49 McCain +1
Florida CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 2, Barr 1 Obama +4
Virginia CNN/Time Obama 53, McCain 44 Obama +9
Minnesota CNN/Time Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
Missouri CNN/Time McCain 48, Obama 49 Obama +1
Nevada CNN/Time McCain 47, Obama 51 Obama +4
Indiana SurveyUSA McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3
Oklahoma SurveyUSA McCain 64, Obama 34 McCain +30
National CBS News Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
National Pew Research Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
National Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 54, McCain 39 Obama +15
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8
Florida Suffolk/WSVN Obama 46, McCain 42 Obama +4
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
National Associated Press-GfK Obama 48, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1 Obama +7
New Jersey SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National Ipsos/McClatchy Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
National Time Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 45, McCain 38 Obama +7
Wisconsin Strategic Vision (R) Obama 49, McCain 40 Obama +9

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mac_1103:

I think it's important to note that all these polls that supposedly over sample democrats are not doing this by weighting the responses, but are simply reporting how the respondents identify themselves. If you want to seriously criticize these pollsters, then you have to explain what exactly you think they might be doing to bias the sample, and why they would go to such lengths just to be able to publish poll numbers that will ultimately be proven wrong. It seems to me that it's a lot more likely that people are increasingly unlikely to identify themselves as Republicans in the current political environment.

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Ulysses:

McCain has a history of coming back at times when he was counted down, out and done for. The crowing and celebration on this site about the recent Obama surge is ill-advised. There are two more debates to go, and of course the oddity of tomorrow's debate. McCain will undoubtedly use one of the next two debates to do something totally unexpected... like throw out some toxic rumor. These poll numbers only mean McCain's crew is going to throw nuclear waste in negative ads and rumors in the next few weeks, and no one should be happy about that. A desperate campaign is a dangerous campaign. Obama, and his supporters, should not assume anything is solid.

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mac_1103:

Oh yeah, as for Ohio:

The Ohio Supreme Court, which denied the Ohio GOP's request for a writ of mandamus, said:

"We hold that respondent, secretary of state, correctly instructed boards of elections that an otherwise qualified citizen must be registered to vote for 30 days as of the date of the election at which the citizen offers to vote in order to be a qualified elector entitled to apply for and vote an absentee ballot at the election, and the citizen need not be registered for 30 days before applying for, receiving, or completing an absentee ballot for the election. Therefore, because relators cannot establish either a clear legal right to the requested extraordinary relief or a clear legal duty on the part of the secretary of state to provide it, we deny the writ."

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cinnamonape:

"Anyone voting can list their address as a homeless shelter. Because of this, a honelss person could vote 10 or more time at different locations with no way to trace them at all."

The voter registrars check to see if there are identical names. Also new registrants (or those who change address) have to include a SSI# or DL # or other confirming piece of identification. The Secretary of State's office checks for duplications. Only the most recent registration is confirmed as valid. The older ones are cancelled.

Thus someone registered multiply at ANY addresses would have all but the most recent registration purged.

Simple enough? Stop the fear mongering!

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cinnamonape:

Here is the only weighting this poll used, they did not weight their samples by political indentification:

"The combined landline and cell phone data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age, sex, education and race, using targets from the March 2007
supplement of the Current Population Survey. In addition to these factors, the weighting takes into account the patterns of land and cell phone usage by region from the 2008 Spring estimates provided by Mediamark Research Inc."

No mention of political party ID! They DID survey people about though! It was asked in question G1.

Here's their % outcomes from the responses of their sample.
LV -Strong D 21% Mod. D 19% Strong Rep 13% Mod. Rep 16% Ind (lean D) 10% Ind. (Lean Rep) 11% Ind (=) 4% None 5% (2-2-1 partisan leaning)

Very similar results from the RV: Strong D 19% Mod. D 19% Strong Rep 11% Mod. Rep 14% Ind (lean D) 11% Ind. (Lean Rep) 10% Ind (=) 5% None 8% (with lean Rep. being majority).

Thus it's clear from the SAMPLE ITSELF that there is a Democratic plurailty in the LV 40% v. 29% with Independents and DNS breaking even. A slight difference is seen in the RV; 38% D v. 25% R with a few more DNS indicating Republican affiliations. Interestingly, these are not likely voters so perhaps the Republicans need to go out and start a reistration drive for young voters right now :-) Maybe the Democrats have tapped out the young leaning unregistered individuals! ;-)

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cinnamonape:

Ulysses...other than the last primary election can you tell me a situation where McCain was counted down and out and rebounded to win an election. Did he do this in 1992 when he was touted as a VP candidate? In 1996 vs. Dole? In 2000 vs. Bush? In any of his Congressional or Senatorial campaigns?

He was either well ahead, without serious challenge...or once he got behind lost badly. He's only "come from behind" once...and that was in a multi-candidate campaign where there were very strong issues with the "regional" success of the other candidates...who ate each other alive. McCain simply waited on the sidelines while they all combusted each other.

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Bigmike:

cinnamonape

I don't know any details about Mc's previous campaigns. But I don't remember a worse run campaign. Maybe Dukakis.

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Stephen Wrght:

There will be an anti-Palin demonstation in the Capital City Juneau, Alaska this coming Saturday at the Capitol - this will be a major event covered by the national media. Governor Palin is NOT very popular in Juneau.

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boomshak:

A NOW, A MOMENT OF SANITY:

The 3 polls yesterday that showed Obama ahead by 7 or more (and are totally skewing the RCP Average higher):

CBS (Uber Liberal MSM)
AP (Uber Liberal MSM)
Time (Uber Liberal MSM)

So the 3 most liberal journalistic organizations on planet earth (besides the NYTimes and Pravda) have all told us that Obama is way out in front.

If you go to their stories reporting the findings, the only word that comes to mind is "orgasmic".

Exclude these outliers from yesterday and the RCP Average is: Obama +4.25, just 1.25 away from a statistical tie with the Palin debate coming.

They just want to make America think that Obama is so far ahead, Palin no longer matters.

Tell me, would you Obozonauts accept polling from Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly showing McCain leading by two points? Would you say, "wow, looks bad for Obama here..."?

No, you would discard the polls as partisan hit jobs.

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Rasmus:

Actually, you don´t build averages by excluding everything you do not like. Averages are built to reduce the effect of outliers, so if those would be outliers, they wouldn´t effect the averages by much.
Hey, they do! So they´re not outliers. In fact, this +7 is close to Rasmussen, so what´s your point?

"Tell me, would you Obozonauts accept polling from Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly showing McCain leading by two points? Would you say, "wow, looks bad for Obama here..."?"

You mean something like the GWU battleground polls that are also included in the RCP averages, as far as I know? With about 1/3 of their sample being 60+?

And a 3% lead is NOT a statistical tie. You are confused, sorry, but the margin of error of ONE poll is not the same as the MoE of a poll AVERAGE. Even if it was just in one poll, it only means that it´s within the 95% confidence interval- and that the leading candidate has still a chance of 90% or so that he´s actually ahead. If there is a poll that shows Obama leading 50-48, the most likely election result is 50-48. 51-47 and 49-49, are a bit less likely, and so on. 47-51 is highly unlikely.

And the race is NOT within any margin of error and NOT a statistical tie, neither on a national or on a state level.

____________________

boomshak:

@Rasmus:

Why don't you say what you really mean?

"I love Obama and these polls by uber-liberal organizations who are totally invested in his victory tell me what I want to hear so they are valid."

Really, it all comes down to the VP Debate tonight. If Palin shines it's a whole new ballgame. If she bombs, Obama can start measuring the drapes.

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning Boomshak,

RK2 51 Obama 40 McCain

I think your man Rasmussen may surprise you today and move another point as McCain is shedding.

Gallup knee jerk back to 6.

Do you really think people vote for the VEEP. I don't - they may vote against!

"Do No Harm" is the maxim - Palin breaks it and your best hope that Biden breaks it to night.

The area that Obama seems to have come up the inside rail is Trust and Likeability.

Favorability is getting back to 60% and that is an almost impossible nut to crack.

You see getting called out as a Liar and it sticking as really tied The McCain Campaign up, they went a couple of negatives too far - that and not the economy was the defining moment of the Campaign.

Of course once McCain pronounced the fundamentals were sound and a week later suspended his campaign because they were not, demonstrated that one leader could handle the pressure and had the judgement to carefully consider and the other was impetruos and cracked.

Never Happy Mornings for Candidate McCain

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Viperlord:

Boom: "ALL OF THE MEDIA ARE EVIL LIBERALS!" Lol, apparently he didn't know that the media was far tougher on Obama than McCain at least until the RNC, statistical fact, I've shown the link before but he continues to reject reality. ANd on Obama being liberal: http://www.politicalcompass.org/images/uscandidates2008.png

Epic fail is epic.

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vmval1:

Palin will hold her own tonight. I just hope they haven't turned her into a Right Wing version of Homer (the poet not Simpsons) in the week that they have sequestered her.

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thoughtful:

has anybody got the Rasmussen numbers yet.

Bet on 51-44>

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thoughtful:

"North Carolina Rasmussen McCain 47, Obama 50 Obama +3" October 2 2008

Getting better all the time

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MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR