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US: Obama 48, McCain 41 (Hotline 10/01-03)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/01-03,08; 915 LV 3.2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 41

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Seems to be a widening lead for Obama instead of a contraction like some predicted.

Say it ain't so Joe, gosh darnit, you betcha!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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BOOMFAIL:

Things gonna get Nukeyouler soon!

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maddiekat:

boomshak

You were right there was a Palin effect. In this poll Bidens fav rating went over 50% for the first time.

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drinkwine247:

BOOMFAIL,

I am sure it will be a "statistical" tie by tomorrow......as long as the MOE is 7%!

Boomsmack is MIA

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d3nnisbest:

Boomshak:

I get it now. It's like we learned in Driver's Ed.... "keep the questionable driver in front of you." McCain has Obama right where he wants him.

Hee hee.

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KipTin:

FYI: Yesterday Hotline results were REGISTERED VOTERS--
Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 9%
- Conducted 9/30-10/2 by FD, surveyed 909 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Today is LIKELY VOTERS --

Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 9%

- The Diageo/Hotline tracking poll has switched to LVs. Only RVs who describe themselves as "extremely likely" or "very likely" to vote, or have already voted, will be included in the survey.

- Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/1-3 by FD, surveyed 915 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

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eugene:

Sean Hannity is planning to run a very negative piece on Obama tommorow,I dont know why Fox will allow this,but Fox news always says how fare they are,give me a break,but the negative ads from Mccain has already started,Rev Wright ads are running in Penn,Ohio in Florida,this guy is desperate and so is Fox news

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eugene:

Sean Hannity is planning to run a very negative piece on Obama tommorow,I dont know why Fox will allow this,but Fox news always says how fare they are,give me a break,but the negative ads from Mccain has already started,Rev Wright ads are running in Penn,Ohio in Florida,this guy is desperate and so is Fox news

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jamesia:

That article on the sidebar is pretty good: Sarah Palin & the Dumbing Down of the GOP... from Salon.

Maybe the McCain campaign will ask Bristol Palin to push her wedding up to next week. Nothing says razzle dazzle like a public wedding!

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KipTin:

Earlier Gallup said they were also going to switch to LIKELY VOTERS. Still waiting on that.

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d3nnisbest:

Boomshak (and real poll junkies, please correct me if I'm wrong):

Even if today's polls had Obama's lead within the margin or error... it wouldn't be a "statistical" tie. The error could be in the direction of a tie or a wider margin for Obama.

In any case, I don't think we'll have to worry about McCain being with the MOE in national polls for a while.

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thoughtful:

KipTin

Good Spot, I think at this stage all the polls should be LV, now the debates has started.

So we need to start a new trend line.

I think I will put the GWU poll in as a 5th daily tracker into the aveage that I like better than any individual poll.

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EarBucket:

Obama's trendline just hit 50%.

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KipTin:

For comparison purposes on Party ID, here are Rasmussen's for this week--

For polling data released during the week of September 28-October 4, 2008, the partisan weighting targets are 39.0% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 27.6% unaffiliated.

I think the Hotline "Independents" look a little anemic (19%), but note that Rasmussen uses the term "unaffiliated." That indicates a different methodology in how political ID is established.

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IndependentThinker:

Gallup Obama 50% to McCain 42%
Palin effect
lol

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Ryan in MO:

yep... palin effect, obama +1 over yesterday

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KipTin:

Today Gallup still REGISTERED VOTERS at Obama 50% to McCain 42%.

I think the debate was only important for both VP candidate's images, and both did well in that respect.

The question is will the "economic crisis" now seem resolved because of Friday's legislation? Will voters be turning to other issues, what will those issues be, and how does that impact voter preferences?

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BOOMFAIL:

8 point lead for Obama on Gallup. Tied by Sunday??? You betcha.

Look for double digit leads to open up later next week for Obama. Gallup tightens on weekend sampling, so Tuesday boombatty will be screaming in delight, but it will be VERY short lived.

Landslide Baby Landslide

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vmval1:

@KipTin

I assure you the voters will keep thinking about the economy if we keep losing 159,000 jobs each month.

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sunnymi:


Gallup says, "Voter preferences appear somewhat stable at the moment, as Obama has held similar advantages over McCain in each of the last three individual nights' polling. That includes Friday polling, the first interviews conducted following Thursday's widely viewed vice presidential debate, the passage of the economic rescue bill supported by both Obama and McCain, and Friday's bleak jobs report."

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thoughtful:

8.25% average on the 4 trackers = a very long way from a Boomshak Tie!

Well at least Rasmussen has it at 6% which just might keep Obama's victory at under 300 EVs at the MOE!

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KipTin:

Yes, the Republicans will be going after Obama on character and judgement... Again raising doubts. Lots of ammunition because of his Chicago "associates."

Also I have seen several new ads from various groups tying Democrats to the FannieMae/FreddieMac problem. One is the Republican Congressional Committee who are targeting ALL Congressional Democrats up for re-election (except one). You have to see the ad to understand that one anomaly.

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IndependentThinker:

@KipTin

I won't let you go away with this hollow interpretation of this gallup poll
Based on your previous analysis whenever Obama lost 1 or 2 points in any polls you like to underscore it so don't be biased this time and to the same
FYI: The yesterday poll was O 49 - M 44
today O 50 - M 42 that means O gains +1 whereas M loses 2 points (including on full polling day after the VP debate)
That's just the way it is and you got to swallow it
In addition, did I mention usually Obama is not polled well in Gallup during weekend?
LMAO!

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thoughtful:

@KipTin

The problem for McCain/Palin the American people now hold them in not so good regards when it comes to being truthful.

No credibility left, McCain got called out on too many lies.

So McCain can bring on some more lies as he has no policies to offer the American people other than militarist adventures and more of the same.

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Indiana4Obama:

Very soon it will be pointless to look at the national tracking polls. Most attention should start focusing on the state polls to see exactly where the election stands.

It's obvious the momentum is behind Obama and it will be difficult for Mccain to slow it down. However, the electoral math tells us Obama will need to win at least one from OH/CO/VA/FL/NC/IN/MO/NV. It sounds easy, right? Just hang onto the Kerry, win IA/NM, and take one more out of those eight.

But if the election ended today I'm not sure I'd feel overly confident about Obama winning any of those eight states. I'd be sweating it out given the closeness of those state polls. Can Mccain win all of them? Unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

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ErnieLynch:

KipKin:

Ayers vs. Putin... McCain loses

"Yet despite McCain's tough talk, behind the scenes his top advisers have cultivated deep ties with Russia's oligarchy--indeed, they have promoted the Kremlin's geopolitical and economic interests, as well as some of its most unsavory business figures, through greedy cynicism and geopolitical stupor. The most notable example is the tale of how McCain and his campaign manager, Rick Davis, advanced what became a key victory for the Kremlin: gaining control over the small but strategically important country of Montenegro."


/blogs/us_obama_48_mccain_41_hotline.html

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ErnieLynch:
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KipTin:

What interpretation..."hollow" or otherwise? Are you delusional from too much Obamanation koolaid or just lack basic reading comprehension skills? Or is asking relevant questions considered "bias" in your mind?

The only thing I posted was today's Gallup poll results and the fact that they have not yet changed to LIKELY voters as they earlier said they would. This is relevant because Hotline just changed to from RV to LV TODAY!!!!

BTW: Try using correct facts.
--Yesterday's Gallup poll was Obama 49/McCain 42. Obama gained one point today to make it Obama 50/McCain 42.

FYI: There is NO evidence that Obama does not poll well during the weekend. Gallup even wrote an article debunking that erroneous myth.

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KipTin:

Very humorous... quoting THE NATION as a legitimate source to denigrate McCain. McCain is hardly in bed with Russia or "promoted the Kremlin's geopolitical and economic interests." McCain's long-term stance on Putin and his Kremlin are very clearly not favorable to them.

By the way... what does "geopolitical stupor" mean to you? Please explain.

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IndependentThinker:

@KipTin:

Yeah I confirm that your interpretation is hollow and partial
I have the logs of some of your previous comments
Yes you like to jump on any polls that show a slight change towards McCain
This Gallup poll shows the opposite
It shows a light movement towards Obama, +1 that could be undecideds who saw Palin is just a puppet and +0 to McCain which could mean his base did not need the VP debate get behind him but doesn't sway any undecideds

Just open widely your partial MOUTH and swallow the truth
LMAO!!

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metsmets:

"Statistical tie" is a term thrown about by local news stations that implies that the candidates are nexk-and-neck in the polls. If a poll shows one candidate ahead by more than the margin of error, then there is a ninety-five percent probability that that candidate will win - when the actual vote is tabulated. When a candidates lead in the polls is close to but not at the margin of error, it doesn't mean that the candidates chances fall to fifty/fifty because they are one tenth of one percent below the result plus MOE.
That is nonsense. As the gap betweens two candidates increases, even within the margin of error, it means that the guy ahead has an increasing probability of winning on election night.
However, nothing is certain. Texas, Wyoming, Utah, and Nebraska might look safe for McCain and Hawaii and Maryland might look safe for Obama but you're never 100 percent sure until the votes are counted. Worth a bet, though.
Polls tell you what to expect but they don't ever guarantee it.

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thoughtful:

@KipTin

McCain and his senior campaign team are on hire to do the bidding of whoever seems to be paying them the most.

McCain's only other interest seems to be militarist.

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KipTin:

Well, Independent Thinker... Did not I send you for a timeout the other day? I think your hissy fit today deserves another.

The truth is that you jumped on me for no reason except something made up in your head. You also used the wrong Gallup numbers to make your fictitious argument. And you are "threatening" me with logs of my previous comments which are only relevant to the poll at the time I made them... not this one.

I am not sure what the following means: "Just open widely your partial MOUTH and swallow the truth" especially when it was you who were having trouble with facts. But I do know you are acting childlish and out-of-bounds of both intelligent and civil comment.

Further harassment will of course be reported... but I may not see it as I am "truthfully" going fishing.

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IndependentThinker:

@KipTin

Don't play the victim card, it ain't gonna work
I've been stating the truth
Everybody on this site knows that you and your colleague boomSPIN like jumping on any polls showing a slight movement towards McCain
How can you deny such an assertion?
It's funny when you're called out on your spin you cry "harassment"
Pathetic!

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ErnieLynch:

KipTin:

Very humorous... quoting THE NATION as a legitimate source to denigrate McCain. McCain is hardly in bed with Russia or "promoted the Kremlin's geopolitical and economic interests." McCain's long-term stance on Putin and his Kremlin are very clearly not favorable to them.

By the way... what does "geopolitical stupor" mean to you? Please explain.


Is the pot calling the kettle black?

These are serious accusations against McCain, please respond.

BTW, stupor : a condition of greatly dulled or completely suspended sense or sensibility.

Sort of like the Republican party, no?

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jenn:

Look out Obama.

Here come the swiftboaters baby!

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Ryguy:

jenn,

correct me if im wrong, but it appears you are actually excited about the prospect of dirty politics coming into the campaign of your "honorable" candidate...

oh golly, say it aint so jenn, say it aint so...

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Observer:

I don't think anybody who has been following the campaign will be surprised to see Ayers, Rezko and Wright playing a big part in the McCain campaign over the next month. This was always going to happen.

The Obama campaign line of attack on Palin, i.e. to try to belittle her experience and suitability was perfectly respectable politics whatever you think of the merits of such attacks. Equally, to the extent that the McCain campaign sticks to the facts about Obama's associations this too is valid.

I have seen on one site a response from an Obama supporter to the Palin attack on Obama over Ayres was to threaten to now attack Palin. That guy must have been in hibernation for the past few weeks.

I don't think it will be possible to produce anything more disgusting and lying than has been put around about Palin already. But I don't think that sort of stuff has come from the Obama campaign itself, just like the Muslim and Birth Certificate stuff has not come from the McCain campaign.

How will it affect the polls? I think to an extent it will depend on how much this stuff is already known and has already been discounted by the voting public and how well it is put over by the Republicans.

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saywhat90:

it is sad that john mccain cannot win on the principles he claims to have. he no longer has any honor if he tries to spread the lies about ayers rezko and wright. and yes they are lies. there is no proof that obama has any nefarious ties with any of these men. there actions are there own to be responsible for. if there was any evidence that obama did anything illegal with rezko fox news would have ran it. if there was anything to the ayers association it would be ran on fox also.i mean they ran the rev wright story into the ground. there isnt much left to get out of that story. what ayers did in the past is not obamas fault. and what he did with ayers in the past was a good cause.so it is a weak mccain tact and it tells me he is no longer the person i once admired and respected in 2000. he had honor then but not anymore. he definitely cannot run on any integrity now.

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jenn:

Ryguy-

Swiftboaters just bring out the truth. The Republican party is reaping what they sew. The powers that be in the party decided to give more support to McCain for the primairies instead of Romney or anyone else.

Now he may not have what it takes to win. His age isn't the problem- not deciding if he's Democrat or Republican for all these years is.

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saywhat90:

the problem he has not shown himself capable of being decisive. he tried to force obamas hand when he called himsefl suspending his campaign(which he did not do). obama gheld firm and would let mccain push him around. then he called himself leding the charge for the bailout or rescue plan. that failed miserably because nothing got done and he only made matters worse. then he went to the debate even though he said he would not go unless a deal had been made(not progress but an actual deal). there was no deal he still went to the debate. then he calls for bipartisanship and not accessing blame while he has ads out blaming be partisan and blaming obama. he has not been focued at all. he has not shown leadership in any situation. even if obama was on the so called sidelines he didnt fly off the handle and go from one extreme to the next. which leads me to the final point. this so called palin effect. palin is not the presidential candidate. this election is not about her policies her agend or her abilities.this is john mccains campaign. i will not base anything in this election on how well a vp did in a debate. they are not the lead ticket. a vp candidate does not dictate the direction of the campaign. oh well maybe in the case bush i might have to renig on that.but bottom line is this.whether biden won or palin won to me is irrelevent because they are not the ones that were voted to run for office for president. mccain and obama were. so if im to base this electionm on anything it is on the successes and failures of the two on the top of the ticket. and before it is said no im not just saying that i thought sides vp lost. the fact is i dont.

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Ryguy:

jenn,

i appreciate you answering the question, seeing as i did not think you were going to. im sorry that you feel the way you do about just about everything you just mentioned... especially swift boat attacks. you feel that swift boaters just bring out the truth. you are wrong. swift boaters bring up baseless attacks that are not based in fact. when the swift boaters hit john kerry, it was so dirty that the bush campaign said they had nothing to do with it. not only that but what was said was disputed by fact after fact... unfortunatly for kerry he thought that the accusations were so silly that he wouldnt have to stand up and adamantly fight them off... so the baseless attacks worked.

are you honestly telling me you believe that barrack obama, a man whos spent most of his adult like trying to keep kids off of drugs, and homeless people off of the streets, is a terrorist? because that is the careful language that mrs. palin was using. notice her words were not "barack obama was careless enough to do dealings with a terrorist. he is clearly naive". he words were "barrack obama thinks america is so imperfect that he goes palling around with terrorists"... in other words, obama is not a patriot, and he wants to blow up this country. this is the language that you call the truth?

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jenn:

Show me one person that Obama has supposedly helped with his community organizing? Just one? You can't. I thought so.

Are the disadvantaged of Chicago better off because of Obama? No, didn't think so.

John Kerry was an easy target for any group. He was too weak of a candidate to win. Only the liberals voted for him. He couldn't win over any Independents.

Return to your desks at CNN, pollsters!

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Ryguy:

and jenn, i would argue that mccains problem is every republicans problem at this juncture in american history.

A. Barrack Obama, even though you dont like him, is an icon that any candidate would have a hard time defeating. hes a guy for a place and time like a kennedy or a roosavelt or dare i say a reagan even though i disliked him.

B. More importantly your party is running in a year when people are generally pissed off at your party. jenn, you cant have a president reside over some of the worst crisis in american history (and he covered the bases, worst attack on american soil, worst economic crisis since the great depression, worst natural disaster to ever hit our soil, a pointless war that has cost us thousands of lives and billions of dollars) and expect people to be excited about putting that party back into the white house!

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jenn:

Obama's just that- an icon. But not really an agent of change. He has no record of that. Just speech after glorious speech of what Americans want to hear.

I would love to see an African-American as president. Just not this one!

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Ryguy:

"Show me one person that Obama has supposedly helped with his community organizing? Just one? You can't. I thought so.

Are the disadvantaged of Chicago better off because of Obama? No, didn't think so."

jenn are you having a conversation with me or yourself? see, ill actually ANSWER the questions you ask me, i just had to type it into google... wasnt that hard...

Obama said he "worked with churches, who were dealing with steel plants that had closed in their neighborhoods, to set up job training programs for the unemployed and after-school programs for youth, and to try to deal with asbestos in homes with poor people -- community service work -- which John McCain has been talking about, putting country first and extolling the virtues of national service.

would you like me to fly to chicago and bring you back a little boy that obama helped so that you can see him in person? perhaps i should look for more... in the words of your beloved mrs palin.. ill try to find some and ill bring em back to ya!

as far as kerry only getting votes from ultra liberals, that would mean that 48% of the voting population is made of ultra liberals... if thats the case, the republicans are screwed for a generation. more than likely though, in fact im sure of it, you just dont know what you are talking about, and are speaking from whatever conservative bubble you live in.

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jenn:

I didn't say ultra liberals- just liberals- people who are staunch Democrats.

No, find me the person(s) who have a job or who are off of welfare because of him.

Everyone in Alaska received rebate checks from the state because of Gov. Palin. She also got rid of some corrupt Republicans in her state. She has also taken on the oil companies there.

Oh yeah. She went back to work the next day after she had a baby. That's one tough chick!

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jenn:

Oh boy. I'm having a good laugh posting at this site with you people. Too much fun.

You all take politics too seriously. I'm going to be happy no matter which candidate wins. You all have been sulking for years since Bush got elected. Oh boy, get a life guys.

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Ryguy:

jenn, seeing as i dont live anywhere near the chicago area, i cant exactly go there and find someone who got a job because of obama. it is well documented that the man worked tireless hours for very little money on job training, after school programs, and several other worthy causes. do you not believe that he worked on these programs or is your argument that they are not worthwhile? because i assure you that they are, an i assure you that they do make differences in peoples lives who need them, much more than a rebate check.

but weve gotten completely off topic here jenn! that wasnt even the point i was making, i let you bait and switch me. my point was that barrack obama spent years of his life working as a community organizer out of the goodness of his heart. he was trying to make a difference in peoples lives. and the question was, do you believe that this man who spent all of these hours on the streets trying to help people for very little money is a terrorist who hates this country? yes or no

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jenn:

I don't think he worked as community organizer to help people. He just wanted to add that to his resume for political office. He's always felt it's his "destiny" to become president.

I'm interested in results from the time he spent there. Which people's lives were changed because of him? Surely you would want to see that he had actually made a difference while he volunteered and not just served the time to make himself look good.

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Ryguy:

jenn, ill be the first to admit im a political nerd. i speak for most people on this site i think. we are kind nerdy about politics... if you arent, then why exactly are you here?

and about sulking over bush, first of all, i can only speak for myself but i am happy. that i havent been effected by the incompetence of the past 8 years. peoples jobs were lost, and more importantly peoples lives were lost. im sorry that you apparently view this as a game, because its not. the president of the free world greatly effects everyone in some form or another.

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Ryguy:

and about sulking over bush, first of all, i can only speak for myself but i am happy. that i havent been effected by the incompetence of the past 8 years

excuse me i meant to say that doesnt mean that i havent been effected by... i think i had a keyboard issue there.

and back to the point

A. you didnt answer my question
B. as i said his work is well documented. just because he as a small community organizer didnt turn chicago into a metropolis doesnt mean he didnt help individuals...
C. your accusations that obama was a community organizer to add to his resume is not only baseless, its laughable. he was a young man making scraps. i bet youd never even heard his name until 2004... yeah that would 20 years later. all the time leading up until then he was just playing a clever little ruse to gain power, one 1300 pay check at a time?! please jenn...

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jenn:

I came here because it's somewhat interesting to see the polls, and see how the actual election results compare.

Don't give me the sob story of how people are jobless or homeless because of Bush. If anyone wants a job, go to McDonald's.

I'm sorry for those who lost their lives in Iraq. They were truly defending freedom throughout the world. Look at how Saddam has been defeated. However, there should definitely be a quicker exit.

I think the next President will address that. No worries about that.

As for the economic crisis, ordinary people borrowed more than they can pay back. Lessons learned.

Get off the Bush bashing people and look within.

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Ryguy:

jenn, im not going to get into an argument with you over president bush. i believe people can make up their minds about his presidency... and i think its pretty clear at this point that hes done major damage to this country. if you cant see a contrast between the clinton years and the bush years than id sure like to know what kind of drugs you are taking, because i live in california and theyre supposed to grow the best stuff out here, but maybe i need to get out there to missouri...

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Ryguy:

oh and jenn, you should share your mc donalds strategy with the president. it could just put a stop the record 9 months of joblessness in this country. apparently we're all just too stupid or lazy to think of that...

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jenn:

Oh, that makes sense. People hate Bush in California. Can't help you there. Like I said if you want to change the world, start from within. Oh boy this is too mushy.

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jenn:

It would put an end to the jobless streak.

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Ryguy:

and the deliciousness rate would sky rocket in this country... its a win win.

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Ryguy:

jenn?

no laugh? no nothing? come on!

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jenn:

Barack Lenin Obama. That's all I have to say.

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Ryguy:

aw jenn your killing me here! the deliciousness rate would sky rocket... thats comedy gold! and i get nothing? im not even mad, im just disappointed in my delivery.

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