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US: Obama 48, McCain 41 (Hotline 10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/28-30,08; 870 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 41

 

Comments
NW Patrick:

Up 1:) Surge!

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mysticlaker:

anyone know if we are getting any large national non-tracking polls today?

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DCDemocrat:

David Plouffe had one of his periodic telephone calls with the media and provided a number of promising details. Ben Smith at Politico reports:

On the conference call, David Plouffe made the case that in key states -- including Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico -- the race is already well on its way to being decided, because so many people have voted early.

Smith reports that Plouffe said:

We’re sort of out of the land of theory in a lot of these states. You’re starting to see how the election is going to unfold.

According to Plouffe, the new and sporadic voters are showing up. If you recall last night's New York Times/CBS poll, the difference between that poll that had an 11-point margin and polls like Fox's was the projections about whether new voters would appear at the polls.

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jradMIT:

Steady as she goes!

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chaircat:

So if O's advantage among Independents is down to 2%, what's keeping his lead steady?

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mysticlaker:

@chair

more indpendents identifying as dem (there sample increased)...

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WebToe:

I still wonder who the 11% is that is undecided. As some others have already pointed out, if turn-out is as big as expected, many of the Und's may opt to stay home rather than wait in a long line.
If they are undecided at this point, they probably don't care who wins. So if the polls stay as they are, they may come to the conclusion that their vote will not matter, so why waste the time.

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sunnymi:

@chaircat:

Obama lost over 10 points in lead among Indies but if you look McCain has gained only 3..so they basically moved into the undecided pool.

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BarackO'Clinton:

This is too good to be true.

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Cho:

Yes, those Independents numbers are weird. Party-breakdown changed over the last weeks, now its Dem +6, used to be Dem +3

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Adam:

Looks like almost all the trackers today are O+1 versus yesterday... except Rasmussen, which is O-1.

I don't like the most recent PA numbers, though.

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JCK:

I can't believe anyone is fretting about PA. If Kerry had polled +5 in PA by a Republican pollster.

Kerry was lucky to get polls that good.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html

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jeepdad:

Id like to see Bill, Hillary and Obama do a joint campaign appearance in PA to shore things up there.

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Zeidan:

What I noticed is that Obama's numbers are staying relatively static at 49-51% percent, while it's McCain's numbers that are going up and down. This shows that Obama has a more solid base that, if most of these polls are true, looks to be the majority.

Not that a national majority matters... but it looks like he's got a majority in the states needed to take him over the top.

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Boris_Dieter:

I am totally skeptical about new and young voters showing up. It's one of those things I'll be totally happy about if I'm totally wrong. So if everyone who is supposed to be voting is voting, great! I'm not holding my breath.

M

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JCK:

Boris,

Even if there isn't an increase in young voters, the young voters that do vote are overwhelmingly for Obama. Much more so than four years ago.

I am definitely not counting any young voter chickens, but they did turn out in the 2008 primaries...

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mago:

@Adam...

I think you've gotten spoiled. We have two PA polls today (no?), a Republican poll with O +5 and a neutral poll with O +10. I guess the lead is probably down to 8 or 9 points from its high of maybe 11.

But remember, this is what McCain has gotten in return for a _huge_ investment of resources that could have been used elsewhere. He's cutting GOTV operations because of the millions he blew in order to lose by 8 instead of 11 in PA. I'm down with that.

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Dana Adini:

good point JCK...The pollsters were very close in PA in 2004. Most of the polls are O + 10 the 4 and 5 were R leaning pollsters. Wait for Survey USA or Rass to come out with polls ocver the weekend

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jeepdad:

@JCK

Wow, I didn't realize the polls were that tight in PA in 2004. Excellent point, and good for perspective.

Final polls in 2004 for PA:

SurveyUSA: Kerry +1
Zogby: Kerry +4
SurveyUSA: Kerry +4
Gallup: Bush +4
Strategic Vision: Kerry +1
Quinnipiac: TIE
Rasmussen: Kerry +2
Mason-Dixon: Kerry +2

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JCK:

Always worth comparing today's polls to four years ago. For everyone who is fretting now, see just how much better Obama is doing than Kerry in virtually every single state.

Unless the polls are historically wrong, this election is not going to be close at all.

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mago:

@Boris

Well, a lot of peaople have voted already...a couple of pieces of evidence:

Last cycle in Georgia, just over 800k black people voted. This year, 618k _have already voted_, 4 days before Election Day. Now either the polling places in DeKalb and elsewhere are going to be ghost towns on Tuesday, or a significant # of new black voters are participating. The latter seems way more likely to me.

In NC, the % of young voters was extremely low at the beginning of early voting, but has been rising steadily--it is clear that a ton of seniors voted in the first few days, but my initial concern has decreased as the 18-29 number steadily creeps up.

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TJIRISH34:

Boomshack I just read why comments were disabled and you were the reason why. Posters here commented to me when I first started posting how "entertaining" you were with your Pro McCain spin on the polls. But after reading some of your recent comments. It's obvious as Nov. 4th approaches and Obama is going to win. Like alot of righties you have shown your true colors Boomshack. Calling Obama a jew hater when Obama has never shown this side of his character is character assasination. If you don't like Obama's policies... Fine, don't vote for him. But the Republican party has sown it's own death knell by continuing to cater to the worst in people to get votes. This approach has now poisoned the entire party and has lead to what will be a huge butt kicking on Nov. 4th. I don't care about the so called "tightening" of polls. This is fringe people on fence coming in for McCain. The outcome will not change. Young people are going to vote (election been going on for 2 years, registration for new voters record breaking) and these voters are all going to stay home on Nov 4th? Dream freaking on! There is always hope until Nov 4th. GOP is hoping that what is predicted to come doesn't happen. But it is going to happen and I am going to enjoy every second of it. Quit attacking opposing candidate's character Boomshack and REFORM your Republican party if you want the GOP to be back in the whitehouse. Otherwise enjoy being out in the wilderness. As I stated before. I voted for Reagan in 84 and I never saw Reagan's campaign attack the way Bush, McCain's have. It all goes back to what I said at top. GOP found away to get votes by catering to people's worst fears and predjudices. It's all coming home to roost in this election.

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MNLatteLiberal:

jradMIT:

"Steady as she goes!"

jrad, a bit off-topic, but which Course and what year are you? (I'm assuming you are at the 'tute)
(Course III '85 and '90 here)

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Paul:

Hotline has Independents as Obama +2. Zogby has Independents as Obama +17. Daily Kos has Independents as Obama +5.

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efrick:

@TJIRISH34

Well said, and thank you....

As for me, I have not yet dusted off my Grandmother's 78RPM record of "Happy Days Are Here Again" quite yet....but I am feeling more comfortable about doing so. The cake, it seems, is indeed baked....just waiting now for the delicious frosting of VA, FL, and NC to come in early on Tuesday for the "O". And, just perhaps, the cherries on the cake of election day will be IN and AZ.

Pardon the bad cake metaphors...

Regards,

E.

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TJIRISH34:

Intrade has Obama at 84% McCain 16%. I want to point out that this means people are betting real money on these numbers. Similar odds at betting parlors. As the saying goes Money talks BS walks. People don't throw away money. If there really was a true indication that McCain was surging with the possibility of winning. These intrade/betting odds would be alot closer. Yes McCain could win. But most pundidts say it would be the biggest upset in election history at this point. Soo looking at the two campaigns. Does anyone buy that Obama's campaign will lag these last days? That McCain's campaign has shown itself to be so well organized and coordinated enough to pull off such an upset? The answer is no & no. If someone here really believes McCain will pull off this upset. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and make some huge money on those odds?

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bmrKY:

Research 2000 Arizona
McCain 48
Obama 47

The race is TIGHTENING... in Arizona.

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Divots:

First, let me say that I am really surprised by some of these polls- miles apart...CBC released its final U.S. National poll this morning and the results may stun some...Sample was huge 10,417 nationally in the U.S. Final poll results:

National- Obama- 49%
McCain-48%

States of Note: Penn- Obama-49%
McCain-47%

FLA- McCain-48%
Obama-46%

Maine- Obama-49%
McCain-47%

Ohio- McCain-48%
Obama- 46%

Colorado- McCain-50%
Obama- 47%

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Incumbent:

I read on HuffPost yesterday that a 527 group has purchased national ad time to run Reverend Wright ads against Obama for the last 5 days before the election.

I would like to think that most Americans will recognize this as another desperate, last-minute attempt to get a McCain win, but I'd be lying if I said it isn't making me nervous. Anyone care to talk me down (in the words of the great Rachel Maddow)?

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RfrancisR:

Charles Cook now has Louisiana in pink.

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VonnegutIce9:

Latest Polls w/ House Effect Corrections

*LV & RV have been averaged
**Poll bias is split evenly between candidates
***Correct numbers in parentheses

Pollster House Effect Obama McCain

DailyKos O+2.5 51(49.75) 45(46.25)
ABC/WP O+1.75 52(51.20) 44(44.90)
Gallup O+0.75 51(50.25) 44(44.75)
Hotline None 50(50.00) 42(42.00)
Rasmussen M+0.5 51(51.50) 47(46.50)
Zogby M+1.5 50(51.50) 43(42.50)
GWU M+2.5 49(51.50) 45(42.50)
IBD/TIPP M+3.0 48(51.00) 44(41.00)

Corrected Averages:

Obama: 50.85
McCain: 43.80
Und: 05.35

****If Obama & McCain split undecideds, this would be the final outcome

Obama: 53.50
McCain: 46.50

Obama wins by margin of +7.0

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Incumbent:

@Divots

Look, troll. You've tried this exact same thing before on other Pollster threads. Either post a link to this supposed "poll" or stop posting this propaganda.

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IT’S ALMOST OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION

Over the past 40 years, that’s all the gopers have had to sell the American people. It started with Nixon, was perpetuated by Lee Alwater and (almost) perfected by Rove and his crowd.

Eventually though, and thankfully, there are enough people in our country that can begin to put two-and-two together. The VERY clear FAILED results of a 40-year goper strategy have FINALLY been exposed over the past month. And when they get stepped on like bugs next Tuesday, the question will be if the goper’s continue to remain in state of denial about the BADLY needed course of changes their party needs; from the top of their ticket down to their destructive-for-the-country-hate-radio programs.

BTW: Tuesday will be a great day for white people too. Despite many past oppressions, white people (and I’m white) will undeniably be able to collectively state they have arrived at point of “acceptance.” At minimum, this election will show race is becoming less and less and issue over time. It’s amazing! On higher level, next Tuesday will be a GREAT statement for the entire world!

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Charlie, Carrollton, TX:

IT’S ALMOST OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION
FEAR - DIVISION - CHARACTER ASSASSINATION

Over the past 40 years, that’s all the gopers have had to sell the American people. It started with Nixon, was perpetuated by Lee Alwater and (almost) perfected by Rove and his crowd.

Eventually though, and thankfully, there are enough people in our country that can begin to put two-and-two together. The VERY clear FAILED results of a 40-year goper strategy have FINALLY been exposed over the past month. And when they get stepped on like bugs next Tuesday, the question will be if the goper’s continue to remain in state of denial about the BADLY needed course of changes their party needs; from the top of their ticket down to their destructive-for-the-country-hate-radio programs.

BTW: Tuesday will be a great day for white people too. Despite many past oppressions, white people (and I’m white) will undeniably be able to collectively state they have arrived at point of “acceptance.” At minimum, this election will show race is becoming less and less and issue over time. It’s amazing! On higher level, next Tuesday will be a GREAT statement for the entire world!

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Divots:

Reasons given for the tightness of race:

- Late voters have decided to fo with the "known" instead of the "unknown"..

- Robocalls have prompted to "rethink their choice"...

- The liberal tax and spend message of this past week has had a huge effect...

Look, I hope Obama wins easily...We hate Bush/McCain...But this sample size is too big to ignore and the CBC is a government-owned liberal broadcast corporation. This election is very, very close and could go either way.

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

Guys - what is all this nonsense from the McCain campaign that Iowa is "dead even"??

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RfrancisR:

Where is the link to the CBC poll?

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Dewey1858:

@ThisLandIsMyLand:
Guys - what is all this nonsense from the McCain campaign that Iowa is "dead even"??

He meant "level."


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zotz:
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Divots:

The new CBC poll covers Oct 28-30..

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zoot:

zotz - that's from September 8 and it cites the old Gallup Poll!

Christ, you almost gave me a heart attack.

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RfrancisR:

@zotz:

September 8th?

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zotz:

Gotcha! LOL!!!

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Knyght:

Ah yes. The one from two months ago. Right after the RNC bounce.

Way to tell it like it is, guys.

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RfrancisR:

@Divots:

LINK PLEASE!

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

@ Incumbent

I am as nervous as Rachel Maddow when it comes to Democrats' prospects in general, but I will talk you down! The Rev. Wright **** aint' gonna do ****! Anyone who will be swayed by that is already voting McCain. Also, who hasn't seen it already? Obama responded to it months ago, dealt with it, and the country was satisfied. I truly belive the ONLY thing that can win this for McCain is cheating. That now is the only thing I'm worried about.

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Michael:

I'd really love a link for that alleged CBC poll, they don't have it on their website, and nobody that I know of is going to pay for a scientific poll of 10,000 respondents, statistically the results aren't going to be that much better than a survey of 1,000 to justify the extra costs. Are you sure it wasn't an unscientific online poll (especially since it doesn't have an MoE listed)?

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Knyght:

DAMN YOU ZOTZ!!!!!

*shakes fist impotently at computer screen*

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Dewey1858:

@Divots:
The new CBC poll covers Oct 28-30..

What year?

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Dewey1858:

Ah, found the CBC poll. I didn't expect McCain's Nova Scotia lead to be quite that large ...

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RfrancisR:

Dewy, where is this poll, I've Googled and can't find it. And why would they poll Nova Scotia?

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

ZOTZ - You gave me a heart attack!!! Stop that! ;)

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RfrancisR:

Obama + 8 in Gallup Traditional

Obama +9 in Gallup expanded

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All BasesAdvances to 8-point lead among “traditional likely voters”

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OneAngryDwarf:

R2K Poll in AZ

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Da Link

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gryff_the_canadian:

I don't believe that CBC poll ... in SW Ontario the streets are a sea of Obama signs. And we have heard a rumour McCain may visit for a rally in London Ontario to try and shore up his vote ;-)

gryff :)

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

regarding our "undecided voters"

Excerpt from a David Sedaris piece:

I don"t know that it was always this way, but, for as long as I can remember, just as we move into the final weeks of the Presidential campaign the focus shifts to the undecided voters. "Who are they?" the news anchors ask. "And how might they determine the outcome of this election?"

Then you"ll see this man or woman" someone, I always think, who looks very happy to be on TV. "Well, Charlie," they say, "I"ve gone back and forth on the issues and whatnot, but I just can"t seem to make up my mind!" Some insist that there"s very little difference between candidate A and candidate B. Others claim that they"re with A on defense and health care but are leaning toward B when it comes to the economy.

I look at these people and can"t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?

...Think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of sh*t with bits of broken glass in it?"

To be undecided in this election is to pause ... and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/10/27/081027sh_shouts_sedaris

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Adam:

Holy cow! Gallup's got O+8 on the "traditional" LV model. Did the Obamamercial make a difference?

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PostModernProphet:

Well after reading the bogus CBC information...and then promptly changing my pants...I would like to comment on an interesting "development" I just heard on MSNBC.

Amazingly enough, the US launched a missle strike into Pakistan killing an estimated 15 people on Pakistani soil. Anyone care to say the phrase "October Surprise" with me? Covert operations into Syria....now a missle strike across the Pakistan border. Is anyone else as un-surprised by this news as I am?

I wouldn't be surprised if they end up marching Bin Laden out of a cave in handcuffs Monday morning....not only that...he will probably be wearing an Obama/Biden T-shirt and talking about some sort of vast terrorist plot against Joe The Plumber.

Anyone care to take an Over/Under on how long it's going to take the McSame Campaign to tie this in with the Biden comment about "Obama being tested with an international crisis"? I'm just hoping we all get to hear the tragically over-stated "and I've got the scars to prove it" line from John Wayne McSame. Perhaps we could send Johnny boy over with a couple of six-shooters and a trusty nag to show those "Al Keedy Turrists" a thing or two about how a REAL American Cowboy president handles business.

In a breaking piece of news....McCain issues a statement saying that he will settle all international matters by challenging leaders of foreign countries to an exhaustive test of masculinity. The challenge includes:

- Arm wrestling
- Shots of moonshine
- Who can urinate the greatest distance

Call me crazy...but I just don't understand how anyone could want some sort of thoughtful, deliberate, insightful, eloquent President like Obama when we could have a REAL man/cowboy like McCain in office who is on record as saying "I like to make decisions as quickly as possible...straight from the gut." Who needs thoughtful consideration when you have a "pair"? I'm just hoping McCain wins so that we can finally fire off some nukes, invade some more sovereign nations without just cause, vastly expand the federal government's surveillance capability, and finally get those barcode tattoos on all of us so we can keep track of one another. Who knows...maybe we'll get lucky and McCain will bring back conscription....one can only hope.

Perhaps the supposed vast number of undecideds are still trying to figure out who would win in a no-holds-barred cagematch....Obama has the reach...but McCain is a scrapper....I hope I have laid the sarcasm on thickly enough.

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LeftCoastMan:

My very first post ever. I'm paranoid, because I remember watching the polls since my very first election (Carter vs. Ford), and I always was disappointed. So that I get a good night's sleep on November 4, is there any chance that the spin I'm reading from the GOP side is anywhere accurate? Is Obama going to Iowa really because there's "secret polls" that show it tied?

My rational side is saying that McCain has no shot, but he has to go to Pennsylvania and Virginia because he is competitive and not a quitter.

My rational side also says this is going to be a landslide, and the spin I'm hearing is what I heard from Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry, and they all got beat rather handily (except for Kerry). I just haven't been on this side of the election very often.

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flamelpa:

Regarding Iowa being "dead even":

I think he misspoke (or if he didn't he surely meant the following meaning):

the Iowa race is "even dead (to McC)"

;)

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efrick:

@ Zotz...

Look, I'm getting old, I have hypertension and a cardiac arrythmia already. Stop playing pranks on your elders...

I must admit I fell for it momentarily

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shirefox:

And, the undecideds may also be undecided about going to the polls. :)

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Divots:

I hate to bring this up but I can't help but think that some people are going to go into the voting booth and decide that they simply cannot vote for a negroid. I wish this wasn't true, but I am always suspicious of this stuff when it comes to America and its politics. I hope I am wrong.

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