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US: Obama 48, McCain 42 (Economist-10/11-12)

Topics: PHome

Economist /
YouGov-Polimetrix
10/11-12/08; 1,000 Adults, 4%
Mode: Internet

National
Obama 48, McCain 42

 

Comments
Eternal:

Stale, 8 days old.

Should be added in back when it was fresh.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

And it's an internet poll, so it is twice as useless.

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Cho:

right, most useless poll of the year

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drinkwine247:

The Economist...hahahaha......People only pretend to read The Economist!!!

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Chester:

This story about McCain asking the Russian embassy for money (he signed the letter!) pretty much throws his arguement that Obama is getting foreign funds out the window. If this had been Obama, the Repubs would have been all over it by now calling him a traitor and anti-Georgia / anti- Ukraine!

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Schadenfreude:

Some of us do actually read The Economist. It's got, you know, information in it.

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DTM:

As Internet polls go, this is actually a pretty well-designed one.

That said, given the dates, what this tells us is that Obama gained from two weeks ago to one week ago, which is not exactly the most pressing question these days.

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1magine:

Why do they bother? What a waste of polling. It takes how long to crunch your numbers from an internet poll?

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Boris_Dieter:

Actually the Polimetrix approach isn't bad. It's fairly complex, but worth a visit to their website. I don't see that poll's results as bad for Obama at all. All-in-all, things seem to moving into place, but I'm one of the anxious liberal Democrats and a Cub fan. So I believe the bottom can drop out at any time. But I'm hopeful.

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1magine:

Tar Heel early vote going Carolina blue?
Posted: Monday, October 20, 2008 2:06 PM by Carrie Dann

From NBC's Carrie Dann
Here's your early-vote snapshot of the day, courtesy of the meticulously up-to-date records of the North Carolina elections board.

As of this morning, over 340,000 North Carolinians have cast general election ballots, with the vast majority taking advantage of the state's early in-person absentee voting, dubbed "One Stop" by Tar Heels.

Over six million state residents are registered to vote in North Carolina, one of the nation's newest political battlegrounds.

Of 270,000 in-person voters since "One Stop" opened last Thursday, over 60% were registered Democrats, compared to only 20% Republicans. (The remainder: mostly unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20% of the state's electorate.)

Of the 66,000 civilians who have mailed in absentee ballots, Republicans have outnumbered Democrats by a margin of about 2-1.

Still, registered Democrats make up 55% of those who have already cast votes for the North Carolina general election, while registered Republicans account for less than one in three ballots already cast

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PortlandRocks:

Tar Heel early vote going Carolina blue?
Posted: Monday, October 20, 2008 2:06 PM by Carrie Dann

From NBC's Carrie Dann
Here's your early-vote snapshot of the day, courtesy of the meticulously up-to-date records of the North Carolina elections board.

As of this morning, over 340,000 North Carolinians have cast general election ballots, with the vast majority taking advantage of the state's early in-person absentee voting, dubbed "One Stop" by Tar Heels.

Over six million state residents are registered to vote in North Carolina, one of the nation's newest political battlegrounds.

Of 270,000 in-person voters since "One Stop" opened last Thursday, over 60% were registered Democrats, compared to only 20% Republicans. (The remainder: mostly unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20% of the state's electorate.)

Of the 66,000 civilians who have mailed in absentee ballots, Republicans have outnumbered Democrats by a margin of about 2-1.

Still, registered Democrats make up 55% of those who have already cast votes for the North Carolina general election, while registered Republicans account for less than one in three ballots already cast.

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KipTin:

So what is the acceptable Obama advantage for the Obamanation to be able to accept a poll as legitimate?

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PortlandRocks:

KipTin ill take plus 6. +6 is a LANDSLIDE on election day. So is plus 4 and 5.

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1503er:

Well hopefully those numbers in NC continue into election day. Would be shame if Obama's support shoots its load in early voting and then goes impotent on election day.

By the way, does anyone have an idea of local polls? Specifically I'm looking for a current poll of Prop. 8 in CA. I can't seem to find one anyplace.

Thanks.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

"So what is the acceptable Obama advantage for the Obamanation to be able to accept a poll as legitimate?"

LOL! +6 for Obama is obviously GREAT NEWZ... FOR MCCAIN!!!

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Traynor84:

@Kiptin

Are you mocking us, when we're beating you in every poll? Really? Wake up. Your guy lost. Obama will take all the Kerry states, plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and maybe even Ohio or Missouri.

Oh... and McCain should stop trying to get funds from the Russians.

http://www.un.int/russia/new/MainRoot/docs/press/201008eprel.htm

^^;

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Eternal:

It's not that I don't think the poll is good, it very well might be, it's just not fresh. I think it can be used, but it should be inserted in the proper date range, Kip you have a problem with that?


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McSame/Falin:

***Breaking News***

Dick Cheney endorses John McCain

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Traynor84:

*and Colorado. Sorry... forgot that one, there are just so many Kip!

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DTM:

@KipTin

I think you may be misreading some of the comments above--indeed, from this pollster, this is actually a relatively favorable result for Obama. Nonetheless, at this point I think people are more interested in what has happened since the time this poll was taken.

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PortlandRocks:

WOW OBAMA now within 2 points in GEORGIA per latest DemCorps poll!

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johncoz:

@kiptin

If you compare 538 (Obama-leaning) with RCP (GOP-leaning), you will see that all polls that meet minimum reporting requirements are accepted, while RCP cherry-picks on the basis of opaque subjective requirements. Pollster also includes all polls.

With this Economist poll, its data point will be included at the appropriate date, of course. It will therefore have virtually no effect on the Loess regression that produces the result.

As far as I can tell, the national numbers are steady at 50-44, which is a shocking state of affairs for McCain given the state of the EC and the fact that there is only a fortnight to go.

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DTM:

I just checked, and this poll is on the national chart now, but entered at something like #24 on the list.

Which is really the only point I (and I think some others) was making.

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Eternal:

DTM,

You are correct, the only point I was making is that people need to look at the dates before thinking a poll is recent.

Politico fell for this last week on Friday. Drudge posted a 9 day old AP-Apsos poll at the top and politico make the mistake of thinking it was new, even mentioning it in their daily round up.

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