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US: Obama 48, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/10-12)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/10-12,08; 823 LV 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 42

 

Comments
muckinello:

Steady as they go...
There is very little McCain can do and spin. They have used everything and if they had something more they would have used it for now.
Now it appears he is gonna do another 180 on his campaign to focus on the enonomy for the rest of the way, after having spent two unsucessful weeks attacking Obama's character.
Two questions:
Is it gonna work? I think no
What is Palin gonna talk about? I bet she is gonna drop a few more pucks at NHL games and get out of the way!

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Trosen:

"- Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage in battleground states. The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI."

If you throw out MI, PA, and NH (where Obama has consistently been polling + double-digits) he still comes out ahead in the other crucial states. We need to see more individual state polls!

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Another great poll for McCain. If this holds, he'll only lose as badly as George H.W. Bush in 1992!

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wakeup:

This race will tighten; market up, upcoming debate... pollsters sharpen those pencils.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

"This race will tighten; market up, upcoming debate... pollsters sharpen those pencils."

News Flash: Debates hurt McCain.

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AJ:

If the other two debates are any indicator, I seriously doubt that this race will tighten due to the debate. Also, market ought to get above 10000 before we even start talking about the market rebound.

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Trosen:

wake.. based on the last 2 debates, how do you figure that helps the race "tighten?" Sorry man, unless you're glued to nothing but Fox News, the reality is the debates have been disastrous for McCain. As for the stock market, I also ask how that will benefit McCain? Both candidates clearly supported the bailout package so both would of course immediately take credit for any sudden Dow "comeback" in the next 3 weeks. Not to mention, a few weeks of positive markets don't suddenly mean the economy is great. Look, the race may very well tighten up over the next few weeks.. but the stuff you are laying out, it sounds a lot like wishful thinking.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Hope springs eternal.

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Dana Adini:

Obama is ahead in North Dakota according to a local poll there 45-43

http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?id=218215§ion=news

This is as funny as the movie Fargo. The cohn brothers already made about the mccain campaign (no country for old men)

Landslide Baby!!!!!

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wakeup:

The market is a factor in this race and plays a part in the polls. A bull market is a psychological boom for the country... Obama feeds on economic worries.

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masselo:

Trosen ,

where did you get that poll from? the one for the battleground states

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Boris_Dieter:

@Wakeup and EVERYONE!

In the words of a Great American, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is a canard around that suggests that Democrats now need a continuing downward spiral in the economy to be competitive. Nonsense. Nothing is going to turn things around for Pitbull with Lipstick and her running mate. The fact that the banks been saved, while Americans still have to manage with deteriorating health care, disappearing pension plans, and growing inequality (due to how the game is rigged, not because of merit) means Americans now want to know what is being done to stimulate job growth and income security. It's the usual bull from the right, that they have virtue and progress on their side, while Democrats feed off of misery. The opposite is true. If data and facts were decisive, Americans would vote Democrat all the time, since the hard evidence is that the economy and income equality both grow more during Democratic Administrations. It's a plain, simple fact. During GOP administrations, the economy tends to slow, while income inequality rises. Additionally, during GOP administrations, national debt and budget deficits go through the roof. So, if you favor economic growth and fiscal adulthood vote Democrat. If you want economic stagnation, growing income inequality and budgetary chaos, vote GOP. Just the facts, folks. End of story.

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Trosen:

masselo, it's in the new Diaego. You can check it out from pollster's link.

wakeup.. a few weeks of recovery from the free fall and it's suddenly a "bull market?" Dude.. you got the "bull" part right.. but you need a different suffix.

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Dana Adini:

wake up "pollsters need to sharpen their pencils"

its a GOP notion that pollster make up or invent numbers. go on sites like davidwissing.com and guys talk about the pollster community with MSM conspiracy. Pollsters set up sample they ask questions and print results...no pencils or erasers involved. Guys who are wrong lose their livelyhood (zogby in 2004)

Rasmussen who was always labled as a republican has same polls as everybody else.

Can the race change? sure 3 weeks is a long time. if elections were held today, Obama would win in a landslide

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cinnamonape:

McCain is going to advance ideas like "I call for retirees to be able to defer for one year their mandatory withdrawal from Social Security. It's essential in these troubled times."

Problem: McCain was the one that agreed with Bush that SS should be privatized. If that had happened five years ago many workers under 55 would be seeing years of investments in those accounts evaporated.

Now McCain's actually saying it's more important as a safety net?

Flip Flop like a walking catfish.

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BOOMFAIL:

Any movement in national polls is most likely the Rethug BASE having amnesia over how horrible Sarah Palin really is. Convenient how the Troopergate findings (that McShame spins as "partisan" even though 10 members are Republicans) was released late Friday night when normal Joe Six pack is chugging down a few for the weekend. I agree with ThatMarvelousApe, that debates only HURT McShame. This week in particular, now that he has set himself up as going to kick Obama's ass. HA! Can't wait to see that one!

Individual states carrying the Electoral votes are all that matters, and as noted above, since Obama leads "51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI," all Obama needs is ONE of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or Colorado and it is over. He leads ALL of these by very comfortable margins. McSham would have to run the board on ALL of the above states, and it ain't gonna happen. Wouldn't be prudent, my friends!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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GrampsMcCain:

Hopefully the market going up won't hurt Obama, let's have the markets tank through election day, then go back up.

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jeepdad:

Two new Marist polls out: Obama +12 in PA, +4 in Ohio.

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Trosen:

gramps, everyone needs to the markets to come back. Who here doesn't have a 401K, 403B, IRA, or something? I'm not worried about a few weeks of market bounce-back suddenly making everyone thing the economy's really great all of a sudden. The economy is REALLY REALLY BAD for millions of average Americans out there, which is why McCain and the Republicans are getting killed on it. (it's worse than the '91 recession when Bush I got hammered by Clinton because of it). A few weeks of Dow recovery changes nothing for the schoolteacher in Des Moines or the firefighter in Denver. Don't buy those desperation talking points. It's nonsense.

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muckinello:

In other news, RCP used to have a link to their electoral map on their main page but since Obama is up at 277, that link is difficult to find... ha ha ha

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Trosen:

jeepdad, it's still astounding to me that McCain just won't let PA go. I hope they blow lots of time and $$ there over the next few weeks.

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BOOMFAIL:

Doesn't matter GrampsMcCain. The damage has already been done, and people are just beginning to receive their 401K statements in the mail. I personally hope that the markets remain stable and begin to improve to restore confidence in our country. Hoping for the worse falls into the Rethug trap that they want. Notice how excited boombatty gets over the prospect of Obama having a crap sandwich come January?? They hope to push this mess as being the fault of Democrats, and intelligent people know that is just not the case. Bush and his Rethug policies have left us in a deep enough hole that will take serious action for Obama to fix. It WILL happen, but realistically will need time for results. Also, Gas can fall to $1 for all I care. It just makes the ridiculous chant of "drill baby drill" sound that much more irrelevant to the times.

Obama will win huge, even if the markets improve, which I hope they do!

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wakeup:

You have to admit that bad economic news hurts McCain, that is shown in the polls. Now think conversely... low gas prices, market rally... who does that benefit?

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Boris_Dieter:

@Wakeup

Sorry kiddo. Folks are beginning to realize that the "fundamentals" of the economy under a GOP administration run by Pitbull with Lipstick and her running mate are too horrid to contemplate. McCain will crater during the debate on Wednesday, since he's made a pact with the devil, but evidently not a good enough one, and his sliming and agitation and snarling demeanor won't be contained. He's so crazed by his ambition that he's allied himself with the same people who claimed he had an illegitimate black child. What kind of a person does that? Americans have seen the ugly side of McCain and they don't like it. We don't need a guy who gets his jollies taking his plane under the bridge and going all in with other people's children. McCain's monstrous desire for the Presidency has so dreadfully altered his appearance that he now risks being seen as a kind of national Freddie the Slasher. I've never seen as ugly and disgusting a group of advisors in my life, with the possible exception of the Nixon presidency, and you should be afraid since a large Americans have seen the ugly face of McCain too. And just as an aside, I too have faith that Americans are not going to vote for a 72 year old man with cancer issues who has selected a cosmically inept running mate. Dream on.

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BOOMFAIL:

@wakeup.

Americans.

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Paul:

Not being a subscriber, I cannot see the internals to do an analysis. Party ID 40-37-18 only adds up to 95?

I agree with "Trosen" above as to the inclusion of states such as MI and PA. However, a 13 point lead in those states appears solid.

The fact that only 7% said country is headed in the right direction (I sure would like to meet those 7% and determine clearly what part of the last eight years has been so endearing that we should continue on this course) speaks volume as to the CHANGE theme advanced by Obama. His 14 point advantage on handling the economy remains the key factor.

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PJ_FFM:

Not *completely* steady, but probably just "statistical noise"; a movement of McCain +1.

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jeepdad:

Trosen, I agree the McCain campaign has had many head-scratching moments. The notion that PA is competitive just being one of them.

Here are the Marist poll links:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/Battleground2008/PA081013.htm

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/Battleground2008/OH081013.HTM

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NHBlue:

@wakeup

Either wake up or keep dreaming.

Meanwhile, take a look at a few consumer confidence polls. People didn't start worrying about this economy just last month. It'll take more than a bump in the stock-market to make them feel confident with McCain.

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wakeup:

Do you think ACORN helped the RV??? I wonder if ACORN influenced the Dem IN primary?? Maybe the FBI scared the ACORN RV's...

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Ryguy:

wakeup, you are creating a fantasy scenario. you really believe that a market rally and lowered gas prices is going to prove that the market is strong with weeks until the election? the damage has already been done. it wasnt just a pin prick that is not healing. if the market rallys every day until nov. 4 it wont change the fact that weve had 9 months of job losses, and it wont change the fact that banks needed a 700 billion dollar bail out.

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Obama is Mabus:


Does anyone know why Obamas gallup polls are falling so quickly?

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Dana Adini:

even if dow went up 2000 it wont change things. People still struggling to pay mortgage and make ends meet.

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Obama is Mabus:

Everyone blamed Bush when gas prices went up. Does this mean that we can thank Bush for the falling gas prices?

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mysticlaker:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

THE BATTLEGROUND: THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN
OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA

SUMMARY OF MARIST POLL FINDINGS:

OHIO:

[PDF]
OBAMA HAS A NARROW LEAD OVER MCCAIN IN THE BUCKEYE STATE:
Among registered voters in Ohio, Senator Barack Obama now outpaces Senator John McCain 48% to 40%. Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama has 49% compared with 45% for McCain.

PENNSYLVANIA:

[PDF]
RACE OPENS UP IN PENNSYLVANIA...
OBAMA PULLS AHEAD BY 9 PERCENTAGE POINTS AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS...
HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD AMONG LIKELY VOTERS:
The once tight presidential race in Pennsylvania is now tipping in Senator Barack Obama’s favor. He leads Senator John McCain among the state’s registered voters 49% to 40%. Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama is in front of McCain by 12 percentage points -- 53% to 41%.

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GrampsMcCain:

The Marist polls are good news esp the +4 in Ohio, this last debate comes at a good time for Obama to solidify his lead at +5-+7.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

wakeup,

Actually, Obama "feeds" on the failure of the GOP which is evident, regardless of any minute fluctuations in the market. Of course, if the GOP is to spin the market as bullish and make more "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" comments, they are welcome to do so, but such tone deaf sloganeering will brazenly conflict with the reality that main street is facing.

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wakeup:

market up 500...

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Trosen:

Mabus, I'm sure that's troll-question, but I'll give you a legit answer. I think the Gallup was a little out of whack the 10/11 point bulges shown last week. I think 5/6/7 points is ore in line with reality. (actually polls like Zogby and Diaego have gone slightly up for Obama inversely over the same time period). I expect a 5/6/7 point edge in Gallup and Ras to hold steady for a while.

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NHBlue:

@wakeup

Who's feeding on economic fears?

Below are remarks by Sen John McCain, as prepared for delivery, in Virginia Beach, VA:

Three weeks from now, you will choose a new President. Choose well. There is much at stake.

These are hard times. Our economy is in crisis. Financial markets are collapsing. Credit is drying up. Your savings are in danger. Your retirement is at risk. Jobs are disappearing. The cost of health care, your children's college, gasoline and groceries are rising all the time with no end in sight. While your most important asset -- your home -- is losing value every day.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

At this point, the pubbies only have fantasies... along with their acorn conspiracy theories. LOL!

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ThatMarvelousApe:

The pubbie fixation on Wall Street gives away their elitism.

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Obama is Mabus:

I have real concerns about ACORN too. It seems to wrong and dishonest to cheat the system. My guess Obama's chickens are coming home to roost, I feel his black liberation religion is also hurting him, its such a racist religion, everyone even blacks know that black liberation is against the covenant of Jesus Christ (antichrist if you will). I personally don't want to go to hell.

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Ryguy:

obama is mabus... if more people thought like you did i would be frightened.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Mabus, if Obama is the Antichrist, then aren't you conceding that he will win the election?

You Republican freaks can't reconcile your electoral spin and your flimsy grasp on Christian theology!

LOL! Time for your meds!

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Obama is Mabus:

Thatmarvelousape
I see that you have done your homework. But I didnt say that McCain would win, read more carefully. I only think that more people are starting to realize his who he really is. He he will be president for three years and four months.

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logic001:

Out of idle curiosity, what does "mabus" refer to? I just haven't heard that before.

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logic001:

Never mind on 'mabus', I should have Googled it right away. Now I know what Dubya's real name is!

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BOOMFAIL:

@Obama is Mabus:
"I have real concerns about ACORN too. It seems to wrong and dishonest to cheat the system. My guess Obama's chickens are coming home to roost, I feel his black liberation religion is also hurting him, its such a racist religion, everyone even blacks know that black liberation is against the covenant of Jesus Christ (antichrist if you will). I personally don't want to go to hell."

WOW. Do you have any idea how idiotic you sound?

BTW, are you defending Palin's religion with her Witchdoctors? I suppose you believe dinosaurs roamed the earth 4000 years ago as well.

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Dana Adini:

republicans are scary.......seriously. They will believe anything about Obama. My brother is one of them. he sends me 100 emails a day comparing Bill Ayers to Osama bin laden. I finally wikipediaed Bill Ayers and seen that the truth vs. the myth is light years away.

They can sit there with a straight face and tell you that Sarah Palin if needed can lead the free world.......amazing

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Obama is Mabus:

Obama will bring temporary peace to the middle east. He will broker peace between Iran and Israel via a signed peace agreement. He will be appointed head of the United Nations and accomplish things that noone thought possible by any man. He will also survive a massive head wound. When this happens everyone will believe that he is a real messiah. This will be your sign to get right with God. Only those whose name is in the book of the lamb will be saved. I'm am not a church goer but am a believer. The holy spirit came to me last friday night in my sleep with this message. I am not making this up, I have never thought of this until that night, scary.

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Dana Adini:

i think were at point where the debate is pointless. hard to argue with x-files theories and conspiracies.

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Obama is Mabus:

I hope I am wrong or even crazy, but it really happened.

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Dana Adini:

Mabus

you had me going for a while.......funny thought u were a real nut. I got punked

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wakeup:

Crunch time for the pollsters... If you want credibilty you better get it right. Watch the polls narrow.

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