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US: Obama 48, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/11-13)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/11-13,08; 829 LV 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 42

 

Comments
Dana Adini:

Ohio Obama +5 survey USA

See-Saw In Ohio -- Teeter-Totter Tips To Obama 21 Days Till Votes Are Counted: In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/14/08, Barack Obama captures Ohio's 20 electoral votes, according to SurveyUSA's latest poll conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WHIO-TV Dayton. Interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, trace a teeter-totter that tipped in John McCain's favor when SurveyUSA first polled Ohio mid-September, achieved equilibrium at the end of September, and now tips to Obama mid-October. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 45%. A month ago, McCain led, on the strength of a 16-point advantage among white voters. 14 of those 16 points have disappeared, and McCain now leads among whites by 2, effectively even with Obama.
There is important movement in Columbus, where Obama now leads, among wealthier Ohio voters, where Obama has erased McCain's advantage, among voters focused on the economy, where Obama has doubled his advantage, and among the less-well educated, where McCain now needs help. Among regular church goers, a group McCain must carry decisively, his 19-point advantage is now 7. Among Moderates, McCain had trailed by 9, now by 23. Among voters older than Obama but younger than McCain, another tipping point. Look at the interactive tracking graph, here.

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1magine:

PPP (NC)
Obama - 49
McCain - 46
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1013345.pdf


survey usa
ohio: 50 obama, 45 mac
pensyl:55 obama, 40 mac

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jonny87:

cant helping thinking there are far too many dems in the ohio poll

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straight talk:

McCain plans to bring up Ayers tommorrow at the Debate. Look for Obama to crush him with a rebuttal that will paint Mccain as out of touch and inciting racism. Obama could play dirty by asking Mcain if he thinks he is a Terroist. McCain is going to do political suicide in that debate!

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DecaturMark:

I found this interesting on Politico

"The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats’ winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money."

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jeepdad:

ARG has a new national poll out today:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Obama +5 (50-45).

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NW Patrick:

Look out Boomshack! North Carolina? WOW!

Since the first of the year, Democrats have added about 250,000 voters to the Republicans' roughly 50,000, while unaffiliated voters also increased their numbers by about 170,000. What was a 10.6 point party ID gap at the start of the year is now 13.0 points. About half that gain came between the first of the year and the state's May primary, and the other half came between the primary and last week's deadline.

There is fairly close to a 1:1 correspondence between the party ID gap and the Obama-McCain gap, so these new registrations alone account for about one point's worth of the gains that Obama has made in North Carolina since the summer.

Meanwhile, about 150,000 black voters -- and 35,000 "other" voters -- have been added to the rolls since the start of the year. That compares with about 235,000 white voters.

Assuming that Obama captures 35 percent of white voters, 95 percent of black voters, and 60 percent of "other" voters, the change in the racial composition of the electorate since the first of the year is worth a net of about 1.5 points to Obama in his race against McCain.

EDIT: Also, some really good data mining on voter registration from Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University. Nearly half of newly-registered voters in Ohio are aged 18-29.

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carl29:

Hotline, shrinking? :-)

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sunnymi:


This from ARG' National Poll

October 14, 2008 - National General Election Ballot

Barack Obama continues to leads in 25 states with a total of 316 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 26 states with a total of 222 electoral votes. Five states are now trending to Obama, which would give him a 369 to 169 electoral-vote lead over McCain.

As was the case last week, approximately 68% of Obama's national ballot share of 50% comes from states where Obama leads. Approximately 44% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads.

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carl29:

jonny87,

Agree with you, although I am an Obama supporter. I think there are indeed to many Democrats in Ohio's SurveyUsa poll. I know that SurveyUsa is pretty good pollster but makes me "nervious" the "fluid" its polls are regarding party ID.

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faithhopelove:

McCain is 0 for 5 so far in today's national trackers.

Obama's lead ranges from 5.9% (Rasmussen) to 13% (Battleground).

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makersmark:

can we expect any other polls today?

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jeepdad:

Suffolk: Obama +4 in Colorado.

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NW Patrick:

Cool Obama turns the heat up on rival
By Edward Luce in Washington (DOESN'T THIS ARTICLE JUST "SUM IT UP?" LOL

Published: October 13 2008 19:57

Constant parallels are drawn between today’s financial meltdown and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Barack Obama, who some point out is the clearest beneficiary of today’s crisis, takes that parallel a stage further.

In every speech, the Democratic presidential candidate makes sure to quote Franklin D. Roosevelt, elected president in 1932, who said: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

observers attribute Mr Obama’s double-digit lead in some polls to the financial crisis. But his campaign, which has studiously avoided giving the impression it is measuring the drapes in the White House, believes their candidate’s unflappable temperament has also played a role. They contrast this to the allegedly capricious style of campaigning of John McCain, Republican candidate, and his famously short fuse.

“You can’t afford that kind of erratic, uncertain leadership in these uncertain times,” Mr Obama tells every rally. “We need a steady hand in the White House. We need a president we can trust in times of crisis.”

The contrast is increasingly easy to make. Last week Mr McCain unveiled a surprise plan for the federal government to buy up failing mortgages in a $300bn (€222bn, £176bn) initiative that directly undercut his stance of reducing the size of government.

Mr McCain has also veered between allowing his running mate, Sarah Palin, to accuse Mr Obama of “palling around with terrorists” – with apparent changes of heart when the Arizona senator reminds audiences that his opponent is in fact a “fine character”.

On Monday, Mr McCain told a rally he would “whip” Mr Obama’s “you know what” at the third and final presidential debate in Long Island on Tuesday. With opinion polls showing previously rock solid Republican states such as Indiana and Kentucky moving into the toss-up category, the Republican would have to pull off an extraordinary debate to reverse the tide.

“Barack Obama would have to dissolve on stage for this debate to have any impact – the last two have been non-events,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, another Republican state that looks increasingly vulnerable. “But the more likely scenario is that John McCain will spontaneously combust. The calmer Obama looks, the more riled up McCain seems.”

Such is the sense of panic among Republicans that Mr McCain is now being bombarded with contradictory advice.

A poll of 100 leading Republican political consultants by the conservative National Journal found that 80 believe Mr McCain will lose the election, while the remaining 20 think it could go either way.

On the campaign trail, an almost preternaturally relaxed Mr Obama pokes gentle fun at Mr McCain’s attempts to change the topic from the economy to something else.

“They can try to “turn the page” on the economy and deny the record of the last eight years,” says Mr Obama. “They can run misleading ads and pursue the politics of anything goes. But it’s not going to work. I think that folks are looking for something different.”

Mr Obama follows this up with a joke about how people’s 401k retirement plans are turning into “101ks” because of the daily slaughter on the stock market. In that context, the traditional tax and spend attacks on Mr Obama are having as little effect as the McCain advertisements questioning the Illinois senator’s patriotism and readiness to lead. The sense of frustration among Republicans is tangible.

“Barack Obama is in many respects very like Ronald Reagan – whatever you throw at him just doesn’t seem to have any impact,” says Saul Anuzis, head of the Republican party in Michigan, a state that Mr McCain earlier this month all but conceded to Mr Obama. “Obama is like the Teflon man. Almost nothing seems to stick.”

Other Republicans, such as Grover Norquist, the influential head of Americans for Tax Reform, which campaigns for lower taxes, believe there is still scope for Mr McCain to unnerve voters about Mr Obama’s spending plans.

“I can see that it makes sense for Obama to present himself as calm and McCain as erratic – I get that,” says Mr Norquist. “But McCain should be hammering on the far left versus centre-right argument.

“He should say that Obama wants to put us all on welfare. That’s what he needs to do in the next three weeks.”

Whatever Mr McCain chooses to do – and whether or not he then sticks to it – the Obama campaign says it will continue with its one overriding strategy: to project their candidate as the epitome of calm in the eye of the economic storm. “Given these conditions, probably a cardboard cutout Democrat would beat John McCain,” says Mr Sabato. “But contrasting ‘calm’ with ‘erratic’ is also a smart strategy.”

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wakeup:

Does the recent registration boom influence the RV polling weight?

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riverrun:

@makersmark:

"can we expect any other polls today?"

|ccording to The Hedgehog Report "Public Policy Polling says they will be releasing new polls from Florida and Missouri today".

http://www.davidwissing.com/

Hedgehog is a right leaning site with dead boring commentary, but are often up first with new polls and news of those upcoming.

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VonnegutIce9:

Does anyone know where to find the numbers for polling variance between Obama and Clinton, I'd like to see what +s and -s we need to be looking for, and in what state.

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wakeup:

Does RV weight rely on registration trends... If so ACORN becomes a polling headache.

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orange24:

@straight talk
McCain plans to bring up Ayers tommorrow

Obama was expecting it at the last debate. In an interview with Charlie Gibson, he said he was "surprised McCain wouldn't say those divisive things to his face". The next day, Biden says on the stump, "Where I come from, if you got a problem with someone, you look him in the eye and say it to his face". They're baiting McCain to bring up Ayers or Wright or Rezko. I suspect he's got the perfect retort that he only wants to use in a face-to-face accusation from McCain. I'll be watching for it.

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carl29:

Boomshak,

Obama is exploding!!!!!
McCain is at 42% in Gallup, Obama? He still at 51%, but the important part is that he is exploding :-)

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jeepdad:

Today's Gallup tracking:

RV: Obama 51 McCain 42
LV1: Obama 53 McCain 43
LV11: Obama 51 McCan 45

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Thatcher:

Gallup today:

RV:
Obama: 51 (51)
McCain: 42 (41)
Lead +9 (+10)

LV1:
Obama: 51 (51)
McCain: 45 (44)
Lead +6 (+7)

LV2:
Obama: 53 (53)
McCain: 43 (43)
Lead +10 (+10)

AVG LV:
Obama: 52 (52)
McCain: 44 (43.5)
Lead +8 (+8.5)

So, steady as she goes ....

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RussTC3:

You have the LVI and LVII numbers reversed.

Traditional = LVI
Expanded = LVII

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RussTC3:

My comment was directed at jeepdad.

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johncoz:

@jeepdad

LV wrong way round: LVII = 53/43

This is the same as yesterday.

The closeness of the LVI numbers to Ras, makes me wonder how Rasmussen's LV screening is done.

Note that no one is using Gallup's LVI - RCP is averaging the two; Pollster and 538 opt for LVII.

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johncoz:

Weighted averages of the five daily trackers statistically identical to Monday and Sunday. Clock's ticking, but McCain's trapped in a bog.

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thoughtful:

@johncoz

How do you think the States polls are squaring with the trackers?

Lower than Rasmussen's 6% or higher?

Looking at the rust belt and Mid West they appear to suggest a good 10% lead in my book?

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johncoz:

@wakeup

Gallup does not weight by party ID, unlike Ras. In the latter case, they use their own data to update the weightings on a weekly basis.

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carl29:

johncoz,

Rasmussen and Gallup's Traditional-Model are quite similar. Notice that they have pretty much the same numbers: Obama 51% McCain 45% in Gallup vs. Obama 50% McCain 45%, 1% is just statistical insignificant, so don't go crazy about it.

Traditional likely voter models discard people without consistant voting history. Minorities are not the most reliable voters, poor people are not reliable voters, young people are not reliable voters, so likely voter models will undersample those groups. So, for Democrats these models are quite hostile. The fact that Barack is ahead even in those models say a lot about where things stand.

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Observer:

So we now have a consensus of LV at:

Gallop +6 (traditional)
Ras +5
Hot +6
Zogby +6

Plus three outliers:
Batt +13
IBD +2
Kos +11

A small improvement for McCain over a week ago I think but well within the margins of error so probably not significant.

Two weeks ago: Bad news of the economy, Obama shoots ahead.

Last week: Obama maintains lead but does not increase it at a time of the big Ayres attack and with continuing economic bad news.

This week: Much better economic news. Start of a slow recovery for McCain? Well I can hope.

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Thatcher:

Observer -

HOPE is very powerful. Things can CHANGE.

Sound familiar?

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carl29:

Only TRADITIONAL LIKELY VOTERS,
(forget about the other "suspicious" polls)

TODAY:

Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 43
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup, Obama 51 McCain 45

Average: Obama 50 McCain 44.3

YESTERDAY:

Zogby, Obama 48 McCain 44
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup, Obama 51 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.6 McCain 44.3

Well, judging for the 3 reliable tracking polls of LIKELY voters: Obama went from 49.6 to 50 and McCain stayed at 44.3

*I wouldn't go crazy for minimal changes from day to day, better to do it for the week :-)

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NW Patrick:

The Dow's up 17 points! McCain will take over now! HAHAHAHAHA!

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jeepdad:

Thanks for the correction, guys.

By the way, the LA Times is teasing a new poll to be released at 5 p.m. Eastern:

New L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll results released later today With precisely three weeks left in the lengthiest presidential campaign in U.S. history, John McCain is making no bones about the hole he finds himself in. A new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll, due out later today, won't give him cause to doubt his underdog status, but it may illuminate some of the ways he potentially could close the gap against Barack Obama.

We can't reveal the matchup numbers quite yet; for that, check elsewhere on our Web site about 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT). Along with the horserace numbers, the survey gauges voter perceptions about the two candidates' stengths and weaknesses.

The findings generally are favorable for Obama. But the poll underscores that should a foreign policy matter elbow its way alongside the economy as a major voter concern between now and election day, McCain is in position to benefit.

The survey also indicates that McCain, presumably to his detriment, has failed to clearly distance himself from the fellow Republican -- and unpopular incumbent -- he seeks to replace: President Bush. It will be worth watching how agressively he seeks to do that when he squares off Wednesday with Obama in the last of their debates.


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Thatcher:

@NW Patrick -

ROFLMAO!

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johncoz:

@thoughtful

My sense is that the states Obama must win to get past 270 (including Colorado) are ahead of the nationals.

The states that will make that victory comfortable or a possible landslide (eg Florida) are around or fast approaching the national trend.

The key figure I reckon is the level of Obama support, rather than the swing. Any battleground with Obama at 50-51 is on the national trend, any with higher support is ahead of the trend.

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Thatcher:

@jeepdad -

You know what doesn't make sense about voters' opinions of Republicans and foreign policy matters?

If we were to be hit with a foreign policy crisis (dissolving diplomatic relations or an attack) why would people lean toward a candidate whose party is running the administration in which the crisis is developed?

I mean - does this make sense: "Oh - these guys got us into this mess - they, themselves can get us out!" Talk about self-regulation!

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DCWylly:

@ carl29

The problem is that traditional likely voter calculations are destined to under-count Obama supporters.

Obama's gonna take this by a bigger spread than these polls show.

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DTM:

One of the problems for McCain in the national polling is that those high-single-to-double-digit "outliers" seem to be coming more and more frequently these days, particularly when you include non-trackers, and meanwhile those low-single-digit "outliers" are becoming less and less frequent.

Which of course is why Pollster's chart shows Obama still gaining.

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1503er:

If history is any guide in this unprecedented campaign, then over the next three weeks John McCain (in history any candidate behind in the polls) will narrow the gap and the election will most likely be closer than it looks today.

Obama still is in the drivers seat here and barring anything changing over the next three weeks he looks to be our first African-American president.

However, again using history as a guide, some new, McCain-favorable event might occur, such as a foreign policy issue. And given the unprecedented nature of the Bush Administration's penchant for running a perpetual campaign, it seems better than 50% odds some sort of McCain-favorable event will 'appear' between now and Nov. 4th.

And if it does, how Obama handles it will determine if he does indeed hang on to his lead and ultimately win the election.

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NW Patrick:

God you've gotta HATE Politics. I just read an article "Democrats’ tactics frighten, how the left wins." Am I on crack cocaine or did we just witness the worst president in the history of the United States for a 2nd term because REPUBLICANS scared Americans? OMG. LOL

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carl29:

Let's check how things stood last week:

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Zogby, Obama 47.7 McCain 45.3
Rasmussen, Obama 52 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 42

Average: Obama 50.2 McCain 43.7

=========================================

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 43
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 42

Average: Obama 50 McCain 43.3

*REGISTERED voters because Gallup just started releasing LIKELY voters three days ago.

-----------------
Bottom Line: Stability is the word!

Hard to say that things have moved from last week to this week. Let's see how things change a week from today.

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muckinello:

I don't get this "economic good news will move the polls to McCain". It is my belief that 90+ of the electorate have made up their mind. Unless a major event or ****-up they will not change their voting intention. The remaining 10% is equally divided in undecided and leaners. I don't believe that two or three weeks of good economic news (if that happens) are going to effect the polls that much. Yes, maybe 1 or 2% points but remember, even an Obama win in popular vote by 5% will mean a landslide in electoral votes.
Is it going to be closER, yes. Is it going to be closE, NO.

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NW Patrick:

I'm curious, could anyone explain to me why EVERY state in the nation doesn't goto a mail only ballot? It makes SO MUCH sense. Oregon has it, and one of the largest voter turn outs in the nation. I'll get my ballot by Monday..vote this Tuesday, mail it off, and relax.

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carl29:

DTM,

This is my little chart with the most reliable trackers:

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 43
Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 42

Average: Obama 50(-.2) McCain 43.3(-.5)

=========================================

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Zogby, Obama 47.7 McCain 45.3
Rasmussen, Obama 52 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 42

Average: Obama 50.2 McCain 43.7

*REGISTERED voters because Gallup just started releasing LIKELY voters three days ago.

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thoughtful:

@johncoz

Noted and makes sense. Of course we have had fewer polls but both Colorado and Florida 9both averaging less than 50%) are now dark blue and New Mexico is light blue. Nevada of course is still yellow.(when we were looking earlier at Kerry + IA + the western states.

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jeepdad:

OK, since there hasn't been an update on RCP or Pollster yet, here's the link to the new Suffolk poll in Colorado:

http://suffolk.edu/31363.html

Shows Obama up 4 points.

More Colorado respondents are now comfortable with the thought of a President Obama versus a President McCain. Despite personal preferences, when voters were asked to define their comfort level, 43 percent said they were extremely or very comfortable with Barack Obama while just 30 percent said the same about John McCain. In addition, 34 percent said they were not at all comfortable with Obama, but 37 percent were not at all comfortable with McCain.

Obama also widely won the perception game in the Suffolk University poll. When asked who would be the next president, regardless of their personal preference, 64 percent of voters polled said Barack Obama, 20 percent said John McCain, and 16 percent were undecided.

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NW Patrick:

muckinello you are right. It means little. I'll bet a good majority of Americans didn't even know the stock market had a record day yesterday. Why? They are still paying $3 PLUS a gallon for gas, food is still up 25% minimum, home values still tanked, 401K statements are arriving all week.

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Thatcher:

@1503er -

I agree it will tighten a little before E-day. I believe, though, that it is going to widen a little more before that happens and we will probably see an outcome similar to the more "traditional" polls right now (5-7%) which two non-incumbents is a landslide.

Should a "positive" foreign policy issue occur (i.e. Osama bin Laden is captured) - then it would be in the best interest of Obama to change the narrative to - "We are overjoyed that he is captured - now we can truly focus on our economy, get our soldiers out of Iraq and repair our homeland, here's my plan ..."

Should a "negative" foreign policy issue occur (i.e. another terrorist attack) - then the Obama narrative should be - "No matter what this administration has attempted to do to make us safer, No matter how much McCain has supported Bush in these policies, we are no safer today than on 9/11. It is time for a change and a time to make America safe, here's my plan ..."

Bottom line is - yes, we would see a little tightening in the race, more than what we are expecting now ... however - in either instance Obama can make a strong case. Whereas, since McCain has backed Bush on most major foreign policies (and been more hawkish in some cases) - McCain doesn't have much of a message to move forward with. If bin Laden is captured, he can claim some part of the glory - but then the focus becomes that of what needs fixed here at home. If an attack happens - he can't say "see it's all (insert name here) fault" because it is the Bush policies he's supported that got us in this situation.

my 2-cents

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mysticlaker:

Where's a link to suffolk poll? I don't see it on their site...

http://www.suffolk.edu/research/18108.html

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thoughtful:
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mysticlaker:

Thanks! Jeepdad.

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DTM:

@NW Patrick

Sadly, part of the answer to your question is that it is in some entities' political interests that turnout not be maximized.

@carl29

Sure, but I think we may be creating the illusion of stability by in effect only considering the most stable tracking polls. For example, according to the data in Pollster's national chart, Obama's lead has increased in the R2K, Hotline, and GWU since the polls dated 10/7. I think if you looked at the non-trackers, you might also see an Obama gain. So, basically, we are tossing out a lot of polls to get to the conclusion there has been no change.

Again, I think the preferable approach is just to look at something like Pollster's own graph (particularly given that we are here already), rather than trying to look just at some limited subset of polls.

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NW Patrick:

The right continues to implode.

Matthew Dowd, a prominent political consultant and chief strategist for George W. Bush's reelection campaign eviscerated John McCain on Tuesday for his choice of Sarah Palin as vice president.

Dowd proclaimed that, in his heart of hearts, McCain knew he put the country at risk with his VP choice and that he would "have to live" with that fact for the rest of his career.

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johncoz:

The Suffolk sample is 600, ie an MOE of +/-4%, whereas in the past week the PPP poll was 1300 and Quinnepiac and Ras were both 1000 and gave larger leads to Obama.

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Observer:

A few questions for those in the know about state polling:

Does it use targeted party ID's like the Ras national poll does?

If so where do such figures come from:

1. Previous Presidential elections?
2. Previous statewide polling, especially 2006?
3. The party ID of registered voters?
4. Reading the tea leaves?

We all know about the big Dem drive to register more voters, especially in battleground states. With this business about Acorn we don't know how many of those new registrations are real people who are likely to vote. If 3 above is a factor how valid is such a figure likely to be?

With regard to 2 how much of the 2006 Republican defeat was down to Republicans voting Democrat or staying home?

There certainly seems to be a mismatch between polling in some battleground states and the consensus of national polling, i.e. Obama is doing better in state polling.

I wonder if the above factors are relevant. Alternatively the mismatch might represent the position on the ground and be reflective of the quality and intensity of political ads targeted at particular states.

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cmbat:

Hey, what happened to the guys that were saying, "Market up, bad for Obama" about two hours ago. Because right now, I see NDX down 67 and S&P down 22 and NASDAQ volume heading for 3.5 billion shares after only trading 2.5 billion yesterday during the bank holiday rally. Oh, and we hit the downtrend line on the NDX and failed. So at this moment, feels like the market is still technically solid...to the downside. Is that supposed to be good for Obama then? Whatever.

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muckinello:

Palin in Scranton? Either they are the smartests in the world and know something that escapes all of us or.... what's up with that?

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mysticlaker:

@observer....

I am not sure about RAS state polls in particular. However, from my understanding state polling is much more difficult than national polling. Understanding the counties, regions, populations is key to state polling and that is why so much less of it is done. If I was going to guess, I would guess there is some party weighting, but the emphasis is on demographic factors that naturally effect party affiliations. You might want to post that question on 538...

PS. That acorn stuff is a bunch of horsecrap....

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carl29:

Observer,

First, Rasmussen is a Conservative/Republican-leaning pollster, which should give you peace of mind about any Obama bias.

Rasmussen claims that he constantly poll the country and the states to see how party ID stand, and then adjust accordingly. He doesn't change party ID as dramatically as some other pollsters. He pretty much keep it constant. However, if you want to have access to all those crosstab, you have to sign up, and pay of course, to see it.

*If your concern is about any Obama bias, rest assure that Rasmussen doesn't have Obama's best interest in mind.

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1503er:

Wait until the market closes. My guess is that the people who think an up market is good for McCain think something like this:

If the market can gain a couple thousand points over the next three weeks and say get us back to a 5-figure number (over 10,000) then people will think "Ok, these guys have it under control" and then they think we can go back to talking about and thinking about things like Iran and Israel, etc.

That's just my hunch.

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Rames1980:

Interesting: "McCain was not tortured, PoW guard claims"

"We never tortured McCain. On the contrary, we saved his life, curing him with extremely valuable medicines that at times were not available to our own wounded."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/14/uselections2008-johnmccain

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Observer:

Thanks for the replies guys.

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1503er:

LOL this gives you an idea of the Wall Street mentality:

Today on CNBC they had all their talking heads on Power Lunch gripping about the market not being up a million points again today. And one of the men says, in reference to McCain's economic plan, "Yea but isn't this thing over already? I mean aren't we looking at an Obama presidency where he'll tax every rich person in America?" to which another woman says "God you better hope not. Taxing rich people is what caused the Depression!"

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carl29:

1503er,

I disagree with you, respectfully of course. My "humble opinion"? I think that everything in life is more about "impression" than about reality. The financial mess just woke people up to the consequences of the Bush economic policies. The impression in a lot of people's minds is that Republicans destroyed the economy to the point that now we, the taxpayers, have to rescue it. I don't think that such impression will fade fast enough for an election that is 3 weeks away. But we will see :-)

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huetdebd:

call me crazy if you want but i'm calling Georgia for Obama. watch.

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johncoz:

@Observer,

Weighting by party ID is the exception rather than the rule. Most pollsters rely on randomising there sample and then weighting by the standard demographics.

Second, we would expect the national winner to be polling at or above the national figures in battleground states. The bigger the national lead, the more states fall into that category: that's how the demography of elections works.

Finally, a key determinant of what order states become battlegrounds is the rural and ex-urban vs urban ratio.

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1503er:

carl29,

I don't think it will either. I was just stating that I think that's what the pro-McCain people are thinking. That if the market goes up then it's good for McCain because they think people will forget about the crisis and start thinking about foreign affairs again.

I don't agree one bit with them, but I just think that's why they think an up market is good for McCain.

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pbcrunch:

Rames1980:

Um, just like how the administration doesn't torture people at Gitmo Bay? People will misremember things (consciously and unconsciously) and stretch the meaning of words to make themselves look good, especially when accused of torture.

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DTM:

Just a small point, but some states do not register by party, so you couldn't use that approach for those states even if you wanted to.

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carl29:

1503er,

I think that what they are wishing for is just that: wishful thinking. Unfortunately for McCain, I don't think that the American people will change fast enough their impression about the competence of the Republicans handling the economy.

____________________

RussTC3:

Rames1980 said:

Interesting: "McCain was not tortured, PoW guard claims"

"We never tortured McCain. On the contrary, we saved his life, curing him with extremely valuable medicines that at times were not available to our own wounded."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/14/uselections2008-johnmccain

The guard's a liar. There is no doubt that McCain was tortured.

____________________

1503er:

carl29,

I agree with you. I was just answering a question from above asking why some people think an up market is good for McCain.

You're preaching to the choir with me.

____________________

carl29:

DTM,

Rasmussen claims that they call randomly to those states and find out what the party ID distribution goes. Remember that Rasmussen calls 1,000 nation-wide every night, so I imagine they amaze a good amount of information accros the board. I am not fan of Rasmussen politically, but I rather see his numbers, which I put into "Obama's worst case scenario."

____________________

Rames1980:

RussTC3:

Obviously you or I weren't there at the time to see, but you have to admit it's plausible McCain's arms could have been damaged in the plane crash instead of during torture.

Anyway I'm not claiming the article is true (or otherwise), but it's the sort of thing the Republicans would jump on to swift-boat Obama if a similar opening were to present itself.


____________________

carl29:

"The Georgia surge continues"

The news continues to be extremely good for Obama in Georgia. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State.

Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate.

*I'm not saying that Obama will carry Georgia, but if the state is a barometer of the AA vote, its energy, in the South, things look good in VA and NC.

Obama/Biden '08

____________________

boomshak:

MCCAIN FINALLY HAS AN ECONOMIC PLAN...AND IT'S A DAMNED GOOD ONE:

In my administration, we will instead revive the market by attracting new investment. I will cut in half the capital gains tax on stocks purchased and held for more than a year – from a rate of 15 to 7.5 percent. This vital measure will promote buying, raise asset values, help companies and shore up the pension plans for workers and retirees.

We should also not penalize Americans who are forced to sell investments in today’s tough markets. I will increase the amount of capital losses from $3,000 to $15,000, which can be deducted from your ordinary income in tax years 2008 and 2009. So much of this decline in our markets and value destruction was due to the failure of Congress and the Administration to come out with a timely rescue package. Investors are always responsible for their investment decisions, but the hard earned savings of Americans should not be penalized by the erratic behavior of politicians.

While we put government back on your side, we must reform our tax system to deliver needed tax relief to working Americans, and to create jobs. I will double the child deduction, from 3,500 dollars to 7,000 dollars. Every person in America who chooses it will receive a 5,000 dollars towards the purchase of health insurance – health plans that will be theirs to keep, even if they change jobs or move to another state. And we will reduce the federal business tax rate from 35 percent – the second-highest in the world – to 25 percent. I am also proposing today that for those who are between jobs, we eliminate all taxes on unemployment benefits. It is unclear to me why the government taxes money it has just sent you, and we should relieve this burden from Americans who’ve been hit the hardest.

And then he levels his most effective attack on the substance of Barack Obama’s agenda:

Senator Obama also promises to restrict international trade and risk access to foreign markets for American goods and services. The last President to raise taxes and restrict trade in a bad economy was Herbert Hoover. That didn’t turn out to well. They say those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. Well, I know my history lessons, and I sure won’t make the mistakes Senator Obama will. And were my opponent elected with a Democratic Congress in power, not only would there be no check on my opponent’s reckless economic policies, there would be considerable pressure on him to tax and spend even more.

This weekend, a plumber concerned that Senator Obama was going to raise his taxes asked him directly about his plan. The response was telling. Senator Obama explained to him that he was going to raise his taxes to quote “spread the wealth around.” This explains how Senator Obama can promise an income tax cut for millions who aren’t even paying income taxes right now. My friends, my plan isn’t intended to force small businesses to cut jobs to pay higher taxes so we can “spread the wealth around.” My plan is intended to create jobs and increase the wealth of all Americans.

CONCLUSION:
Now if his innept campaign can just find a way to get this in front of the American people in the next 3 weeks, maybe he can turn this around.

I really must wonder though, weere has all of this been for the last 2 months while Obama went completely UNCHALLENGED on his bogus "tax cut for 95% of Americans"?

____________________

lhtk:

Why is Pollster so slow today in updating?

For those who are PrObama, the spread of the different polls strikes me as possibly a best-case scenario for this election. On the one hand, those that are consistently putting his lead out to the 9-12 point range has to raise the confidence level of his campaign and supporters. On the other, those that are consistently at 4-6 Obama helps keep us honest and working, knowing we can take nothing for granted.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak, is his plan as good as his idea of suspending his campaign? Unfortunely for McCain you are NOT the best focus group, but don't worry, we will see how "regular/mainstream" people react :-).

____________________

DTM:

@carl29

Sorry, to clarify I was just trying to explain that what Observer listed as method #3 couldn't be used in some states.

____________________

carl29:

"Buckley Is Out at National Review After Obama Endorsement"

Democracy in action, my friend :-( Those people are really intolerant.

____________________

huetdebd:

i just moved to the south a couple years ago. it's beautiful down here. the only thing i can find wrong with the south is that it's full of republicans.

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak

As I said this morning, McCain's problem is that nobody is listening.

But also this "plan" is a reaction to the fact that Obama released one. The McFuddle team broke up on Sunday without any plan. Obama pounced and produced one, forcing McCain to respond. Your best hope is that they cancel each other out.

____________________

DTM:

Maybe McCain's "inept campaign" can instruct his supporters to post something about his economic plan in every Internet discussion they come across, whether it is relevant or not.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow McCain with a plan! This is all wasting time at this point. It's over.

____________________

Incumbent:

@DTM

LOL Touche, "my friend"!

____________________

boomshak:

As I suspected, none of the resident moonbats have actually responded to the ideas in the plan, only slammed that I presented it.

____________________

sunnymi:

He cannot get rid of his ties to lobbyists who lobby for foreign governments, can he!
First it was his foreign policy advisor, now it is his transition chief.

"McCain's Transition Chief Aided Saddam In Lobbying Effort"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

____________________

KipTin:

FYI: Christopher Buckley has NEVER been a conservative. Republican yes, but not a conservative. He is a successful political satirist... mostly about "red" politics.

____________________

huetdebd:

@boomshak

why should we respond to mccains plan with any seriousness? today it's this and tomorrow it will be something else. he offers so many things that they don't have any meaning anymore.

____________________

DTM:

On the substance of McCain's plan from a political standpoint, I think removing the tax on unemployment insurance will go over well, but that idea was already in Obama's plan. Increasing the child deduction will also be popular among those with children.

In contrast, I suspect the capital gains tax decrease, capital loss deduction increase, and corporate tax reduction will not come across as particularly helpful to most Americans, and indeed will eventually get scored as tax breaks for those who don't really need one. And the health insurance credit is part of his overall plan to eliminate the employer tax deduction for health insurance, which is not going over well.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@sunnymi:

"McCain's Transition Chief Aided Saddam In Lobbying Effort"

Oh my. McCain is "palling around with friends of terrorists."

____________________

wakeup:

McCain could find a cure for cancer and the media would not listen, then Obama would claim it as his own and the media would swoon... having said that, this race is far from over.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

Actually, you didn't make any actual case as to why McCain's plan is any good. You just branded it "damned good". A branding of "good" by Boomshak is about as credible as a judgment of a rescue plan as "good" made by Michael Brown.

____________________

boomshak:

@DTM

"corporate tax reduction"

If McCain is smart enough to package this as a HUGE JOB CREATOR as it encourages companies to do business in the US and move operations onshore, then yes, it will appeal to the middle class.

Also, no corporations actually "pay" taxes. they just load the cost of their taxes into the prices they charge for their good and services. The average American "pays" Corporate taxes.

He needs to present this in a populist package and not some wonkish tax policy so Joe Sixpack can get it.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@Boom:
"He needs to present this in a populist package and not some wonkish tax policy so Joe Sixpack can get it."

Why doesn't he just get Sarah Palin to explain it to Joe Six Pack: "John McCain, being the maverick that he is will get all reforming on the corporate tax thingy, also you betcha."

____________________

NorseSoccer:

@wakeup

You can take your sour grapes elsewhere.

I don't think you'd have to worry about Fox News trumpeting McCain's cure for cancer.

All this bitching about media bias is all horse****. The media covers what happens. McCain has been ALL over the place with his message. He puts together ads he has no intention of running and the cable news shows run it for free. The media is a game and they get played by both sides.

The race is definitely close to being over. McCain doesn't have the electorate where he wants it and any reasoning otherwise just makes you another one of boomshak's moonbats.

btw, boomshak. I don't know what a moonbat is but it's a great word and I love saying it. It just rolls off the tongue. So thanks!

____________________

boomshak:

McCain can win this thing:

Rasmussen O+5
Zogby O+6
Hotline O+6
Gallup +6 (traditional)
IBD O+2
Gallup/USA O+4

Yes, of course I am leaving out the nutty outliers, but there is a whisper of good news out, there especially now that McCain has a platform to run on.

Now if he can just sell it smartly.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

OMG! OMG! OMG! (homage to boombatty)

Palin is giving interviews again. This time with Rush Limbaugh. Talk about some serious Q & A!!

OOH EEE OOH AH AH!

____________________

DecaturMark:

And Rush asked her what her plans were for after Nov 4. Even he knows McCain can't win.

____________________

wakeup:

Norse, I admit the McCain campaign is an absolute mess. I also believe that if people focus on Obama's character it will hurt him at the polls.
Boomfail, I heard the Rush-Palin conversation... it went very well indeed.

____________________

huetdebd:

@wakeup

"mccain could find the cure for cancer and the media would not listen.."
wow..i know your trying to express how you think the media is biast but what you also expose is that mccain isn't capable of accomplishing anything remotely as estounding as curing cancer. he just isn't smart at all. if it weren't for his admiral dad he never would have gotten into the naval academy. if it weren't for his admiral dad he never would have graduated. if it weren't for his admiral dad he never would have been allowed to fly plans...big mistake there...crashed one plane over the gulf...blew one plane up on a carrier and killed a lot of people (not his fault my ass)...shot down while flying a bomber plane. the only thing he ever did right was refuse release when offered but i bet he didn't take only becuase he was affraid his daddy would have been ashamed of him..odd military up-bringing if you ask me. i could go on but i'll leave it with "keating five". yes..he was one of the five. even though not convicted he was found to have very poor "judgement". i for one would like a president who is better than that.

____________________

maddiekat:
____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@boomdump

Learn something about economics before posting.

http://danshaviro.blogspot.com/2008/08/krugman-on-us-corporate-tax-rate.html

Everyone knows that the actual tax rate is far less important that what corporations actually pay. You'll notice from the link above that the U.S. has one of the lowest rates anywhere in the world.

It also falls to certain departments to make sure that they are collecting taxes from those corporations, which if you've been following the U.S. Department of the Interior scandal you would know they haven't been. Too little regulation, too little enforcement, and too little change from John McCain.

John doesn't get to repackage of Phil Gramm ideas and tell us that they are new and shiny. This is the same old Republican cut taxes/borrow & spend economics that we've seen for almost 3 decades. I believe there was a Repubican once who had a term for this type of economics, something about voodoo. Funny how really fiscal conservatives like that get eaten alive by their own party.

I still find it hard to believe that one person (you) can be wrong about so many different things. You have a gift my friend, please don't pass it on.

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak -

Where's your response to this???

McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam In Lobbying Effort
October 14, 2008 02:49 PM

William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions against his regime.

The two lobbyists who Timmons worked closely with over a five year period on the lobbying campaign later either pleaded guilty to or were convicted of federal criminal charges that they had acted as unregistered agents of Saddam Hussein's government.

____________________

wakeup:

huetdebd,
Think back to school, would you realy want the egghead of the class being your leader? Regarding McCain being shot down because he is stupid??????????????

____________________

johncoz:

Boom, just in case you were asleep this morning:

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows there has been no statistically significant change in Obama's support over the past week.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3156/2940404093_abb4dcbf7d_b.jpg

Today's results will be identical

And then there are the state polls, which do show a definite movement -- against McCain.

There is no "whisper of good news" in polling land. Don't take my word for it, check out the graphs on the this site.

Self-delusion is no way to win a campaign; it just makes you look silly. Sorry.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, is indeed delusional. Absolute national tracking numbers even if you take the most favorable ones do not cut it. What you are missing out is the margins Obama has built up in the battleground states.

We are seeing the Battleground poll show double digit margins and ARG has said as much as well ("As was the case last week, approximately 68% of Obama's national ballot share of 50% comes from states where Obama leads. Approximately 44% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads.) ARG polls only O+5 nationally so you might be tempted to include it in your list of polls to be considered!

Mark my words....If this thing goes down to O+1 he will still win the electoral college.

____________________

wakeup:

Has there been a poll taken of the Arab-American choice for president?

____________________

NW Patrick:

I've read McCain's PLAN. Another piece of crap. God these people just don't get it. What's new with the GOP. WHERE'S THE JOB CREATION PLAN? LOL FAIL.

____________________

sunnymi:

@wakeup, has there been a poll taken for Italian-American, Anglo-Saxon, Greek-American, German-American choices and so on. Why bring up a Community as if they are a connotation for evil when they are citizens just as much anyone else is.

____________________

muckinello:

I never listen to Rush but I believe he ejaculated in his pants during this Palin interview.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_101408/content/01125106.guest.html
if you need another proof that he is a moron!
I mean.. you wakeup are only a distant second to him!

____________________

NW Patrick:

wakeup has there been a poll of low income white trash?

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Q- Has there been a poll taken of all the dumb people?
A- Yes, they answer with an (R) in the polls

____________________

huetdebd:

@wakeup

there's a difference between being smart with leadership skills and an awkward nerd. we all know that obama is one of the two and it's now awkward. and as far as mccain being shotdown because he is stupid...i don't think he got shot down because he was stupid. he got shot down because he was arrogant. it was reported he was flying too low and he was warned of heavy fire in the area. he decided to continue on anyways. brave...yes. stupid...everone can judge for themselves. reason to put down on your resume as being qualified to be preisdent....i think not. perhaps one could argue that he didn't do anything wrong... but one can't argue that he did something right that day. his arrogence will get our whole country into trouble. you can't lead america when you are blinded by some ill fated preconcieved rightousness. that's why bush took us to iraq and he should have never done that. mccain is just like him in that respect.

____________________

sunnymi:


PPP - Missouri
--------------

Barack Obama has taken a small lead in Missouri after trailing by ten there in PPP's most recent previous poll of the state, conducted in late August.

A big trend between the two polls is increased Democratic unity in the state. Over the summer Obama was winning just 78-15 among voters in his own party. That's now up to 89-7. Obama has also cut down significantly on John McCain's margin with white voters. What was a 56-35 lead for the Republican with that group is now down to 52-42.

As it is in every state the economy appears to be a key factor in Obama's Missouri success. 63% of voters list it as their top concern, and among them he leads 57-38.

Part of what's making this state a tossup after it went for Bush in 2004 is shifts in suburbia. The 2004 exit poll showed the Republican winning 52-48 in the suburbs, but Obama currently has a 55-40 lead there.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_1014132.pdf

____________________

carl29:

"Obama widens his lead to 9 points"

Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 51 McCain 42

Previous poll:
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/02 - 10/06 858 RV
Obama 47 McCain 40 Obama +7

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

Check it.

Notice the states that Obama will take from Red this year are nearest the top.

Coincidence???

____________________

RussTC3:

Missouri: PPP 10/11-12 (8/13-17)
Obama 48 (40)
McCain 46 (50)

12 point swing in favor of Obama.

____________________

NW Patrick:

What? McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam In Lobbying Effort. NICE. What an asshole McCain! I'm forwarding this to 100 people.

____________________

RussTC3:

If McCain tries to tie Obama to Ayers in the debate tomorrow night, he's going to get absolutely blasted.

____________________

Thatcher:

@RussTC3

Exactly

Even though Saddam Hussein wasn't a part of 9/11 - McCain still links Iraq to 9/11 ... so, McCain's stepped his foot in it, again. Wow, way to open that "terrorist" door up, Maverick!

____________________

lhtk:

Palin interview with Limbaugh? THAT will certainly help pull the independent/undecideds toward McCain. Good gravy!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow great polls today. But what's new?:) This is fun. 21 days to go!:) 3 polls in a row showing a MO lead. WOW WOW WOW. Boom?

____________________

wakeup:

Heutdebd, so McCain was shot down because he was arrogant... an arrogant fighter pilot?

____________________

huetdebd:

@wakeup

mccain wasn't a fighter pilot. he was a bomber pilot. bomber pilots are supposed to stay high in the sky drop their payload and come home without getting caught or shot at or anything. thought you knew that. you should get to know more about the candidate you plan to vote for. since you got that wrong you should look over all you talking points and compare them with some research. we just might get you voting democrate this year if we can just educate you. :) and don't bother telling me i'm wrong. i know for a fact he was a bomber pilot and not a fighter pilot.

____________________

wakeup:

Palin motivates a group that could go either way on McCain. She brought up Ayers, now he might be discussed in the debate. There is alot of money involved in that relationship and if where that money went goes "public"... watch the polls narrow.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup,

You bet we'll be watching :-)!!!!

____________________

lhtk:

zzzzz . . .

Hey, I see that Rasmussen is scheduled to release their Delaware presidential poll in about a half hour. Truly I'm on pins and needles.

____________________

wakeup:

huetdebd,
he flew fighter-bomber aircraft.

____________________

Thatcher:

@lhtk

LOL

____________________

boomshak:

What is odd to me is we have two groups of polls:

1. A big bunch at O+4 to 6
2. A big bunch at O+9 to 13

Who knows. Do YOU have 30 minutes to spend with a pollster at 7 pm? I don't.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boomshack MCCAIN was down 70 points in the DOW today!

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Has there been a poll taken of the Arab-American choice for president?"

Well Arab-Americans overwhelmingly supported Bush in 2000.
But after McCain responded to the woman that called Obama "an Arab" by saying "No, he isn't. He's a good Christian family man." Somehow implying that Arab men are NOT capable of being good family men...I suspect his numbers are way down.

Folks like the above (including McCain) should realize that there are many Christian Arabs, as well. In fact, many in the US come from Lebanon...and more recently Iraq (due to the collapse of conditions for them since the Saddam Hussein regime fell).

Another problem is that McCain has been opening his campaign appearances with hate-mongering preachers that say stuff like "Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists in foreign countries are praying to their God for Obama, and our God will find that offensive and help elect John McCain." That sort of ignorance and religious intolerance is precisely what will drive people who practice these religions, and those who actually know something about these religious faiths (and the Constitution) toward Obama.

____________________

pbcrunch:

Ipsos-McClatchy national poll:

Obama: 51
McCain: 42

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/725888.html

I think the average is starting to trend towards 8 or even 9 in favor of Obama.

The internals of the Ipsos poll are interesting, Obama is kicking butt with Hispanics (+50) and is even in the South.

____________________

wakeup:

I sense that you Obama supporters have some insider info that he can swipe away the Ayers connection with a brilliant retort or a back-at-you accusation...

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak do you know of a thing called the electoral college. Show me ONE state poll that makes you think "McCain can win this thing." LOL You are so funny. You completely discount the American mood. You think a day in the stock market will TURN THE ELECTION. You are utter FAILURE like your Messiah Bush.

____________________

wakeup:

The arab-amer polling question was an honest question. I was simply curious to know. Do they not do the Jewish vote?

____________________

pbcrunch:

"Has there been a poll taken of the Arab-American choice for president?"

As an Arab-American, I can say that I don't know anybody among my family or Arab-American friends who will be voting for McCain. This goes across all regions -- Egyptians, Iraqis, Syrians, etc. and across religious divides. I know Bush had decent support -- I wouldn't call it overwhelming but maybe closer to 50/50 -- in 2000 but that absolutely collapsed in 2004.

McCain's belligerence towards the Middle East is blatant and we don't want to see any more of our homelands destroyed by war. His ignorance on Sunni/Shiite differences is apparent.

I wouldn't be surprised if Arab-American support for Obama was around the level black support to be completely honest... or, at least, at the same level or slightly above Hispanic support.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak you don't have time at 7PM for a pollster to interview you but you have all day to post Republican filth to a liberal majority on Pollster.com? FAIL.

____________________

Incumbent:

"wakeup:
Heutdebd, so McCain was shot down because he was arrogant... an arrogant fighter pilot?"
---------------------------------------------

Yeah, like Tom Cruise's character in Top Gun...what was that character's name again? Oh yeah - MAVERICK!

I think I'm starting to get it now.

____________________

wakeup:

pbcrunch,
thank you for answering my question.

____________________

sunnymi:

@wakeup, you said "She brought up Ayers, now he might be discussed in the debate. There is alot of money involved in that relationship and if where that money went goes "public"... watch the polls narrow."

You mean the $200 he contributed to Obama's first campaign :-)

____________________

cinnamonape:

I notice that Palin seems to be a big fan of Rush and his prominent fat cigar (oh right, it's just "product placement").

Sarah even said "dittos"...she's a "ditto-head". Now we know why she doesn't read newspapers...everything she knows is from Limbaugh.

Yikes!

____________________

pbcrunch:

wakeup:

I know it wasn't a direct answer and anecdotal at that but I don't know of any polls. I think Arab-American national groups may run one or two during presidential campaigns but I haven't seen one around.

____________________

sunnymi:


Why does McCain's campaign and their supporters not get it. Raising and re-raising Ayers as an issue will never help them politically.

Obama, Ayers and several others worked on a the board of an organization funded by Annenberg foundation that belongs to the same family who have been loyal Republicans and were sent as ambassadors to foreign countries by Nixon and Reagan. Ms. Annenberg is on the McCain endorsers list.

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak
"What is odd to me is we have two groups of polls"

Just differences in survey method and voter models. The question is: what is the real number? And the answer seems to be from just about everybody looking at the overall picture that the number is +7-8%.

However, the swing is a derived figure from independent variables and is therefore more volatile. There is very strong evidence that Obama's support currently sits at 50-51% vs McCain at 43-44% at most.

It is this gap which is driving the carnage on the electoral map.

____________________

wakeup:

pbcrunch,
again thanks.
sunnymi,
no not the $200... I'm speaking of the $100 MILLION over 2 years.

____________________

mysticlaker:

What platform? That piece of **** economic plan McCain is going to try and push...Watch Obama rip it apart tomorrow. It's going to be a thing of beauty. Capital gains relief! Hah.

____________________

sunnymi:


@wakeup, you said "I'm speaking of the $100 MILLION over 2 years"

Would you care to explain?
Are you talking about the funding that went through the board they worked on?

____________________

wakeup:

Where did the money go?
By the way I found Joe SixPack... he's Joe Wurzelbacher; the plumber who got Obama to admit he will raise his taxes to spread the wealth.

____________________

thoughtful:

It is going to be a much more interesting debate tomorrow.

Will McCain get into Obama's face, see into the whites of his eyes?

____________________

lhtk:

No doubt others are typing this info out at the same time. The just-released LA Times/Bloomberg poll has it 50-41 Obama among likely voters.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/mccain-poll-oba.html

____________________

sunnymi:

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News Poll
--------------------------------------
Barack Obama - Joe Biden hold an eight point lead among 1,446 registered voters and a nine-point lead among 1,030 likely voters, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News Poll just released.

It's 49-41 over John McCain-Sarah Palin among registered voters and 50-41 among likely voters.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak, my friend can you see anything hopeful in these polls listed on RCP a repub leaning org?

Tuesday, October 14
Race Poll Results Spread
Ohio SurveyUSA Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 40 Obama +15
Colorado Suffolk Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 51, McCain 38 Obama +13
Michigan Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
Colorado Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Minnesota Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11
Wisconsin Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 37 Obama +17

____________________

wakeup:

There is a record of where the money went. I want to see those figures, I think it is important.

____________________

falcon79:

OMG!!!!
CO turned dark blue!!!
whooohoooo :D

____________________

mysticlaker:

@wakeup....

Have fun doing your research. I am sure you'll bust the election wide open.

@thoughtful...
Your list doesn't include the just released latimes poll 50-41...I don't want boom to forget about that one.

____________________

sunnymi:

@wakeup, you said "There is a record of where the money went. I want to see those figures, I think it is important.
"

Honestly, Don't you think the guy who put up the money to fund the foundation will be more concerned than all of us out here if there was any issue with where the money went!

____________________

lhtk:

Rasmussen has DE 56-41 Obama. NOW we can relax . . .

____________________

thoughtful:

@mysticlaker

The list doesn't have GWU/Battleground Boomshak's favorite poll either. Wasn't that +13% today?

____________________

1503er:

This is another of the many reasons why Obama will make a better president than McCain. Obama is able to think, reason, and present a topic so that everyone can understand it. McCain can't.

Obama about the Republican belly aching about ACORN:

"My understanding in terms of the voter fraud — because having run a voter registration drive, I know how problems arise — this is typically a situation where ACORN probably paid people to get registrations, and these folks, not wanting to actually register people because that’s actually hard work, just went into a phone book or made up names and submitted false registrations to get paid,” he said.

“So there’s been fraud perpetrated probably on ACORN, if they paid these individuals and they actually didn’t do registrations, but this isn’t a situation where there’s actually people who are going to try to vote, ‘cause these are phony names, and it’s doubtful Tony Romo is gonna show up in Ohio to vote, so this is another one of these distractions that gets stirred up in the course of a campaign."

“But, what I want to make sure of is that this is not used as an excuse for the kind of voter suppression strategies and tactics that we’ve seen in the past. Let’s just make sure everybody is voting, everybody’s registered. Let’s make sure that everybody’s doing it in a lawful way,” he concluded."

____________________

NW Patrick:

1503er THANK YOU and thank you Obama. These ****ing IDIOTS like Boomshak making a big deal out of ACORN is just nuts. But hey, I don't expect intelligent conversation from the right. To think MICKEY MOUSE could walk into a Polling Booth and vote is just ridiculous. But hey, they need some excuse after they get their asses kicked.

GREAT article from RealClearPolitics.com
This sums it up. This election is more than about a 1 day surge in the stock market as SOME ON HERE like to suggest. The real problem and why I think, and I know Dems hate to hear me say it, ITS OVER is summed up in this article. OBAMA NOW APPEARS PRESIDENTIAL to a majority of Americans. That's all she wrote windbags!


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/obama_looking_like_a_president.html

____________________

sunnymi:

"Private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis"

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53802.html

____________________

wakeup:

As a voter I want to see where the Woods money went and I want to see where the Annenberg money went. Me and Joe Wurzelbacher want to see Obama's decision making on paper.

____________________

1503er:

The other problem McCain has is that over 50% of the electorate is supporting Obama. Obama is their candidate. Voting for someone or something is an emotional response, albeit there's reason involved, but since either a candidate or an issue evokes people's emotions about how they feel about something, it's hard to ignore that voting for a candidate is not the same as deciding which freeway to take to work based on traffic conditions.

Therefore, McCain's problem is every time he brings something up like ACORN or Ayers, it evokes an emotional response from voters who have already decided to vote for Obama. And that emotional response is negativity towards McCain. Because people supporting Obama look at McCain bringing these up as an attack on their decision to vote for Obama.

The people who think that ACORN and Ayers will actually undo Obama are the same people emotionally committed to McCain. Unfortunately for McCain there's less of those people than there are people emotionally committed to Obama.

____________________

sunnymi:

"wakeup:
As a voter I want to see where the Woods money went and I want to see where the Annenberg money went. Me and Joe Wurzelbacher want to see Obama's decision making on paper.
"

Sure....you could go to the respective foundation offices and check them out :-)

____________________

wakeup:

sunnymi,
call me lazy but I would like a journalist to do it for me.

____________________

makersmark:

I must admit I find it strange that maine and NH are lean dem while Colorado and Florida are strong dem on this site

doesn't really compute with me as much as I wish it was true.


____________________

1503er:

sunnymi,

Of course it was private sector loans that did it. I have no clue where people got in their heads that Fannie and Freddie caused this crisis. Sure they were part of the overall problem, but they weren't the cause or the root of it. They had something like 25% of the subprime loans if I'm not mistaken. AND they weren't able to secure jumbo loans. And before anyone wants to then try and blame the Carter Administration for it's red lining efforts, they need to know that only ONE private bank was legally obligated to that old Carter mandate. ONE.

What's going on is an attempt to blame poor innercity folks for Wall Street's misdeeds. This problem we're facing now wasn't created by Freddie and Fannie lending to minorities and poor innercity people. It was created by large, private financial institutions making bad, funny money loans to people in white, brown, and black upper-middle class suburbs. People who used their houses as ATMs to buy whatever their heart desired. And then by shady appraisers driving up the 'price' / 'comps' of homes.

It's actually pretty sick what McCain is trying to do -- To paint this as a "Freddie and Fannie in concert with poor minorities in the innercity who brought down our financial system" event. It's sick.

____________________

thoughtful:

@wakeup

What i think is far more important: will John McCain open his complete military records including his psychological evaluations?

This leadership evaluation and temperament is fairly important for the Presidency?

____________________

sunnymi:

"wakeup:sunnymi,call me lazy but I would like a journalist to do it for me."

NY times has already done it and has debunked the whole issue as nothing but thin air.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM
"Do YOU have 30 minutes to spend with a pollster at 7 pm? I don't."

Ofcourse you dont, you are here all the time :)

____________________

sunnymi:

"makersmark:I must admit I find it strange that maine and NH are lean dem while Colorado and Florida are strong dem on this site"

I made a joke about the same this morning. But the reason is simple. CO, FL, PA etc have been heavily polled as they are being contested strongly whereas states like NH and ME are not getting the same attention from the campaigns.

____________________

political_junki:

This is pretty cool:
http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

____________________

DecaturMark:

Obama is showing how smart of a campaign he is running. He is advertizing on Xbox360 with ads in a virtual game and has just created a website for his tax calculator. So the American people can put in their income and see whose tax policy with put money in their pocket. Brilliant!

____________________

wakeup:

"debunk"... I want a list with dollars and recipients.
Medical records??? I am talking about Obama's executive experience. He made choices as to where to spend money, where did it go? There is nothing for the NYT to debunk... just list where the money went.

____________________

sunnymi:

"1503er", I whole heartedly agree with what you wrote about the sub-prime mess. In fact a lot of what you wrote is in that report I mentioned.

____________________

wakeup:

The Candyman promising everything to everyone... not to me and Joe Wurzelbacher.

____________________

jeepdad:

Any heads up on the new CBS poll coming out tonight? MArc Ambinder says it will "spur a lot of discussion." It's either suprisingly close or shows Obama WAY ahead.

____________________

NW Patrick:

wakeup would it matter if you had the #'s? YOu've made up your mind. Apparently you'll continue support the party that gave our country the largest deficit in WORLD history. What could change your mind now? LOL Fool.

____________________

NW Patrick:

jeepdad I am just guessing based on the awesome Dem #'s the past two weeks AND in their poll 89%, a record, now say that the country is on the wrong track, it should show Obama up 10 or more.

____________________

Adam:

About Arab-Americans: everything I've read has suggested that -- as has been noted by a couple others here -- they were pretty enthusiastic Bush supporters in 2000, but the racist backlash from 9/11 and the occupation of Iraq ended that. I can't imagine John McCain's "defense" of Obama last week helped any. (For the record, he didn't say "Christian," just "he's a decent family man" -- but implied, whether he meant to or not, that this was the opposite of "Arab.")

AAPAC (Arab-American PAC) didn't endorse anyone this year because neither candidate submitted a request for endorsement. Due to the demonization of Arabs and Muslims by the Right, neither candidate really WANTS their blessing... and I think Arab-Americans are sadly understanding of this fact.

It's ironic, too, because Arabs would seem to be a natural Republican consistuency: they're often socially conservative, and are more likely than other ethnic groups in the U.S. to be business owners. But the Republicans are more interested in pandering to their racist white base.

Here's an article on the issue from Salon.com: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/28/mccain/

____________________

wakeup:

For the sake of journalism I would like to see where the money went... instead I get reports of a tax calculator on a web site and a video game. What time is the CBS poll supposed to come out?

____________________

NW Patrick:

CBS poll out at 3:30.

And now for a local message from your Union:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/AFL08209%255FAFL1.FINAL%255FGUNS.pdf

____________________

jeepdad:

@NW Patrick

I'm thinking Obama is up, too, but probably more like 12-15 points. That would be enough to draw immediate criticm from the McCain camp, who are always quick to try and dispute those kinds of results.

____________________

Observer:

Spreading the wealth eh? Not so much a Robin Hood perhaps as a Dennis Moore?

"Wait a tic... blimey, this redistribution of wealth is trickier than I thought."

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wasn't it the CBS poll that last time changed their party weighting and went from +9 to like +4? Should be interesting!

____________________

1503er:

A redistribution of wealth? You mean sort of like the Iraq War or the Bailout?

____________________

wakeup:

Adam,
Would you happen to know the Arab-American population?

____________________

Thatcher:

@NW Patrick -

I worked on the mailing data for that piece! So, if any of you guys get this piece of mail - your info was processed on my computer - thank me for making sure your address was on it!

____________________

jeepdad:

CBS: 53-39 Obama. 14 points!

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@jeepdad

What's the link of the CBS poll?

____________________

Adam:

Arab-Americans make up 0.5% of the U.S. population (according to the Census Bureau, anyway; other sources say it's twice that), but they are overwhelmingly concentrated in a few states, especially Michigan, where they make up 5% of the voting public. Voter turnout among Arab-Americans is much higher than the general population.

FYI, around 70% of Arab-Americans are Christian, although the number of Muslim A-As is increasing.

____________________

jeepdad:

@thinker

I should've noted that it's not "official."

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/obama-mccain-53.html

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup re: Ayers:
Here are a couple of very telling pieces from Willaim Ibershof regarding Ayers. Read carefully. Btw,

William Ibershof was the lead prosecutor in the
1970's for the Weatherman case. He wrote an editorial in the NY Times and had a follow up interview and article in the LA Times.

His editorial in the NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/l10ayers.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=ibersh
of&st=cse&oref=slogin

The article in the LA Times:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-ayers13-2008oct13,0,3632087.story

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

At the same time, while we are talking about palin' around with terrorists, riddle me this:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/13228/301

Eagerly awaiting your objective response to some light reading. TIA

____________________

Pat:

CBS Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain

18 point lead among independents

____________________

NW Patrick:

Disagree with the spread or not, there is SUFFICIENT evidence in ALL Polls that Grandpa's AYERS Strategy is failing.

Per CBS - Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.

SO BRING IT GRANPA YOU MOTHER F(*$%()*#$CKER. BRING UP AYERS TOMORROW NIGHT! DO IT!

____________________

IndependentThinker:

****! I am seeing the new CBS poll live on MSNBC
Obama +14, I am speechledd

____________________

IndependentThinker:

I meant speechless

____________________

lhtk:

Here's the CBS link to the CBS News/N.Y. Times poll: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/14/opinion/polls/main4522273.shtml

53-39 among likely voters.

____________________

wakeup:

Adam,
Thanks for the info. The only Arab I worked with was Christian.
MNlatteliberal,
Can you name the groups that received money from Woods and Annenberg? I do know of one.

____________________

NW Patrick:

McCain-Palin is a NATIONAL JOKE. GOOD BYE GOP. Another day lost. Your economic plan was hardly covered. It said NOTHING about job creation. Good bye old man.

____________________

NW Patrick:

www.cbs.com

Wait for it... NO WAY. LIBERAL MEDIA. It's NY Times for God sakes! No way the country could vote for a DEM after the wonderful 8 years of GOP leadership..BUT BUT GOD IS ON OUR SIDE!

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

wakeup, have you read the links I so eagerly provided for you?

The name Annenberg rings a bell. Isn't that a McCain contributor? So, yes, I can name one group that received money from Annenberg. McCain campaign. Anything else before you get to reading?

____________________

NW Patrick:

I wonder if McCain still wants to talk about Ayers tomorrow night?

____________________

pbcrunch:

Good day in the national polls... +9 in two of them and an amazing (outlier, i know) +14 in the CBS poll...

____________________

Thatcher:

And it the CBS poll party breakdown is actually less Dems and more Reps than the last one (barely)

Oct 3-5
WEIGHTED
37.88% Dems
28.38% Reps
33.74% Inds

Oct 10-13
WEIGHTED
37.47% Dems (-.41%)
29.16% Reps (+.78%)
33.37% Inds (-.37%)

So even by weighting the poll slightly more to the right this time - Obama still led 53-39!

____________________

Adam:

The CBS poll is the wacky one that showed McCain leading among women last week. I don't trust it.

____________________

wakeup:

MNlatteliberal,
The namesake of the Annenberg Challenge is dead. You provide me with links... can you name me a group that received money from Annenberg?

____________________

lhtk:

One has to admit: This latest CBS/NYT Poll is pretty amazing when realizing the margin in this same poll was Obama by only three one week ago, before the last debate.

____________________

Adam:

@wakeup:

Are you unable or just unwilling to use Google?

http://www.annenbergfoundation.org/grants_database/

Geez.


____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@NW Patrick,
in a word, you betcha! how else is he going to try to kick Obama's you-know-what as promised to his blood-thirsty base? are you watching the right wing base from Bill Crystal to Mitt Romney rip him a new one? The only Republican still droning on for McCain on the morning shows is the mayor of 9/11.

I predict (boomlike) that McCain will make a passing reference to Ayers, something along the lines: "My friends, with the economic crisis at hand, I suspended my campaign in order to shape consensus on the bailout package in Congress, while that one was busy spending money he received from an unrepentant terrorist Ayers on smearing my record. But, my friends, while this is a good time for my opponent to come clean on his ties to domestic terrorism, we must focus our energies on helping the mainstreet America. My friends..."

I will be watching for some plaque glancing reference by McCain that he himself will dismiss in the same sentence or a sentence later showing his graciousness and non-combativeness to appeal to the middle.

____________________

political_junki:

@NW Patrick:
Obama almost dared him to talk about it. also see this from the CBS's poll:
-------------------------------------------
Recently, the McCain campaign has gone after Obama about his relationship with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, and McCain has signaled that he will mention Ayers in the debate.

One in three voters say they have heard "a lot" about Ayers, and 31 percent say they have heard something about him, though far fewer - 9 percent - say the association bothers them.

____________________

wakeup:

Adam,
The link you listed only covers 2005-2008. I want data from when Obama sat on the board.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

isn't it uncanny how with every passing day McCain looks more and more like a turtle?

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

wakeup, how is your question relevant to the assigned reading? please explain in complete sentence form. tia

____________________

wakeup:

Adam,
Your second listing is more to the point... Thanks.

____________________

NW Patrick:

MNlatteliberal I agree he won't DIRECTLY say it. He'll throw it in somewhere cause he's a ****ing pussy. Obama can then come back and say - SEE JOHN..You just don't GET IT. Instead of talking about guilt by association, why don't you tell America WHAT YOU WILL DO. And so on.. Obama doesn't even need to explain it and waste time bringing more light to the ridiculous story.

____________________

boomshak:

CBS/NYT Poll - Obama +14

Excuse me while I laugh out loud. C'mon. Rasmussen and Gallup have this a 5-6 point race amongst LV's and CBS/NYT comes in at 14 points?

Geesh. Welcome to life under liberal rule. get used to being lied to.

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak aww boom****. You didn't mind being lied to for 8 years... why not 8 more? HAHAHAHAHA! FAIL.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey Boom****. You still think the BG poll is the best? ROFL FAIL.

____________________

pbcrunch:

Adam:

Your take on Arab-Americans is interesting but I don't think they are a natural Republican constituency. (Admittedly, this may be because of my own natural left bias.)

Yes, they are generally socially conservative (some of my poor cousins can't date a guy unless there's a proposal first... seriously) and small business entrepreneurs but there are several aspects that make them more natural fits in the Dem column (other than their general demonization by the Right):

1) they value education greatly and make great sacrifices to get their children to the best schools. The anti-intellectualism of the Republican Party is on stark display this year.

2) they are VERY tolerant of other religions and points of view. Most Arab-Americans, as you pointed out, are Christians and were members of minorities in their ancestral lands, persecuted for their beliefs on a regular basis. Also, they generally subscribe to more tolerant forms of Christianity than the crazies that populate the Republican Party. And, lest we forget because of the demonization, Muslims are commanded the Koran to respect their sister religions -- Judaism and Christianity -- even though the crazies amongst them ignore those edicts.

3) Many Arab-Americans have family in Europe. Enough said.

So maybe they could have qualified as a "swing" constituency if the Republicans didn't completely mess up their chances with them post-9/11. Yeah, they're not a large group but they're concentrated in a small number of states enough to change outcomes in those states.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
I agree this poll is more on Dem's side. But nothing can compete with life under Conservatives when it comes to being lied to.

Also:
Recently, the McCain campaign has gone after Obama about his relationship with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, and McCain has signaled that he will mention Ayers in the debate.

One in three voters say they have heard "a lot" about Ayers, and 31 percent say they have heard something about him, though far fewer - 9 percent - say the association bothers them.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@boom****

You liked the last week CBS poll, right?
So open widely your mouth and swallow this one as well cause it comes from the same pollster

____________________

political_junki:

Obama supporters:
email this link to anybody that you know:
http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

boom, haven't you heard that Jon Lovitz controls all the media from his underground vault? The poll is so obviously a marxist-leninist-liberal-jew-arab conspiracy to drain us of our precious bodily fluids, i am surprised you even need to respond to it!

tell me this, did you notice before I just told you, that if you take the pollster Marist, and strategically insert a random "x", you get their political affiliation? You can use that. Just remember where you got the stuff.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

boom, haven't you heard that Jon Lovitz controls all the media from his underground vault? The poll is so obviously a marxist-leninist-liberal-jew-arab conspiracy to drain us of our precious bodily fluids, i am surprised you even need to respond to it!

tell me this, did you notice before I just told you, that if you take the pollster Marist, and strategically insert a random "x", you get their political affiliation? You can use that. Just remember where you got the stuff.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
IndependentThinker: has a point. last week you were loving CBS!

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@political_junki

Thx
He also used to like GW Battleground but not anymore since it's been showing a big lead for Obama as much as +13

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

I agree with you on the substance of your argument, not the your way of saying it. I don't think that the race is wide open as CBS/NYTimes wants to make us believe it is; however, I believe there are more "sinister" reasons behind these numbers. I think that the Media, the liberal media, is preparing to tight this race, make it a horserace, all the way down to the wire.

Expect that the next poll will have a much more closer gap and the narrative will be "McCain is surging," "Mac is back." The Media doesn't like races that everyone expects the outcome. The horserace gives them fantastic ratings. So, yes I agree with you boomshak that a 14% gap is pretty out of the average. Nonetheless, you should be happy because next week the "bad, liberal" Media will paint a nice picture for your guy, McCain. This could give him momentum.

See, how can agree on something?

____________________

Adam:

@pbcrunch:

What I was trying to say is that Arabs MIGHT be a natural Republican constituency IF the Republicans actually stuck with their supposed core values and weren't so obviously racist.

There's nothing anti-education or anti-Europe in the old-school Republican Ten Commandments, but they've been hijacked by the proudly parochial, know-nothing, anti-intellectual types (viz. Sarah Palin). I was thinking of the Republican Party of Willam Buckley, not Karl Rove.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

i am sorry i missed all the dow jones industrial average fluctuation as it relates to good news/bad news for Obama hubbub earlier.

my wife makes a brilliant observation, as she tends to do, being brilliant and all: rather than gauging on whether the Dow drop is good or bad for Obama, notice how every time dubya opens his mouth on camera of late, the DOW plummets 500 points plus. Case and point this AM: Dow up 400. Bush speaks. Dow closes almost 100 down.

Track DOW vs dubya video cameos and you get a rather stark picture of how our President helps shape confidence of the markets. Ouch.

____________________

Observer:

More bad news for McCain in national polling. We now have 9 polls taken at about the same time:

IBD...............+2........825 LV
Rasmussen...+5.....3,000 LV
Zogby...........+6......1,208 LV
Hotline.........+6........829 LV
Gallup (Tr)...+6.....2,140 LV
LA Times......+9.....1,030 LV
Kos...............+11....1,100 LV
GW Batt.......+13......800 LV
CBS/NYT.....+14.......699 LV

I still feel that the consensus is about 6% and the others are outliers. I can justify this by referring to the size of the samples. However it is undeniably true that the state polls are broadly consistent with a larger lead nationally.

____________________

Observer:

I would say that the arab christian community are most likely to stay anti-Republican for a long time given what has happened to Iraqi Christians following the US invasion. I am sure that they know a lot more about all this than the average American.

____________________

boomshak:

@Observer:

A 12 POINT RANGE IN POLLS. Why do they even bother?

____________________

carl29:

Observer,

I sort of agree with you. If I had to pick the most "believable" polls, I would pick these:

Rasmussen, Obama +5
Zogby, Obama +6
Hotline, Obama +6
Gallup (Tr) Obama +6
LA Times, Obama +9

Average: Obama 6.4%

I think this could be a pretty accurate lead, on the conservative side. Other numbers seem like an outlier to me. We'll see kids :-)!!

____________________

boomshak:

@MNlatteliberal:

Your wife is dumb and she smells funny :)

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

They are getting ready for the "horserace." I bet that next week the gap will be much closer and the narrative will be: McCain is surging, Mac is back. That should help your guy get momentum, so don't complain. LOL!!!

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@boomshak

When it comes to the question of truthfulness, I still remember the stories about WMD in Iraq as prime examples for neo-convservative "truths"...

Anyway.

To get back to the subject of POLLS (after all, this site is about POLLS - anyone remember that? ;->), if the O+14 of CBS/BYT were true, I figure we'd have to see STRONG "O++"-movement in AR, LA, SD, SC and maybe even a state as prima facie improbably DEM as MS (iirc in 2004 the youth vote in MS would've been a small majority or plurality in favor of John Kerry...).

Oh, and if anyone ever mentions ACORN in the context of "strange (translates as: unfavorable) poll results" again, just one thing: There have been incidents of dead people whose identities were "adopted" for *voting* - but I really doubt that someone ever cared to set up a fake identity for the chance of being *polled* as part of a *random* sample by landline phone call on a less than 1/1000 chance... No one is THAT insane. (At least no one I ever heard of.)

____________________

wakeup:

Adam,
Upon further review... Chicago's Annenberg Challenge is more than I could have hoped for, it validates my opinions. Ayers being a terrorist is just the icing on the communist cake. Since CBS/NYT has called the race over maybe they can do some research and identify what the Obama Doctrine will mean for education in America. Ayers did say in 2006 taht Chavez was the model. He would not have chosen Obama for Annenberg if he did not fit the socialist mold.

____________________

javakah:

In regards to the CBS poll, there's a pretty good possible explanation on fivethirtyeight.com

Basically if you look at some of the other polls, some of them show an 8% Obama lead, which may be slightly on the high side, but not by much. CBS then generally has a +3% dem bias or so, getting to 11%. Tack on the margin of error, and you get to 14%. So a better number from the CBS poll may be 8%, which is still a quite respectable Obama lead (and frankly far more believable).

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack in retreat , looking for any poll to entrech his starving out of ammo troops in.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

boom, that is very unbecoming of you. if i were you, i'd
a) apologize
b) try harder to be funny
c) refrain from using the word "dumb"
d) in fact, were i you, i'd strike the term "dumb" from my vocabulary.

i know our relationship will not perish in your ad hominem attacks on my brilliant and observant wife. i do expect an apology

____________________

wakeup:

MNlatterliberal,
I am in complete agreement with Bush and the market. The same goes for Paulson, last week I watched the market tank after he spoke with just 45 minutes left in trading. What, he couldn't wait an hour to talk?

____________________

Adam:

There's that word again: "Communist." The McCarthyist truth shines through.


____________________

Adam:

By the way, did anyone notice that the CBS poll actually included cell phones? Could that be the source of this supposed "3% bias"?

____________________

boomshak:

@carl29:

McCain is a major longshot right now. Obama has been incredibly beatable but McCain's campaign has just been horrible.

He is just now saying things he should have been saying for 2 months.

In this election, we have a choice between and INCOMPETENT DIOT and a SMOOTH-TALKING MARXIST.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

So now you are asking a troll to read? Let me know how that works out.

@Observer

So why is it that you only pick the one's you like that show the low results? Just pick a poll until you find one that justifies your position? Why not take all of them and find the average?

____________________

boomshak:

@MNlatteliberal:

"boom, that is very unbecoming of you. if i were you, i'd
a) apologize
b) try harder to be funny
c) refrain from using the word "dumb"
d) in fact, were i you, i'd strike the term "dumb" from my vocabulary.

i know our relationship will not perish in your ad hominem attacks on my brilliant and observant wife. i do expect an apology"

Don't hold your breath and lighten up comrade.

Ok, ok, she doesn't smell THAT funny...

lol.

____________________

wakeup:

CBS ratings are so low they needed some publicity.

____________________

orange24:

@wakeup:

As a McCain supporter, I would think you would be more concerned with Willie Timmons ties to Saddam Hussein:

William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions against his regime.

The two lobbyists who Timmons worked closely with over a five year period on the lobbying campaign later either pleaded guilty to or were convicted of federal criminal charges that they had acted as unregistered agents of Saddam Hussein's government.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

By your circular logic, surely this means that John McCain palled around with Saddam Hussein?

____________________

political_junki:

BOOM:
I think you should try both a and b again :)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@boomdupe

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/christopher-buckley-resig_n_134628.html

Yet another conservative icon jumping ship. Hmm he must be a communist too. Have you ever actaully read Marx or is it just one of those things they taught you about in troll school?

____________________

boomshak:

I wish our ticket was Romney/Bloomberg :(

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

You can just hear the enormous flushing noise starting, as the Rethugs are getting ready to take a ride down the toilet with McShame. Can't wait for him to bring up Ayers at the debate, if this has already widened his lead to 14 points!

Rasmussen seems to be the outlier, my friends!

Remember Rethugs, YOU ASKED FOR HIS LEAD TO BE LARGER!

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

____________________

boomshak:

@political_junki:

Have you SEEN his wife?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@boomdump

Desperation is not flattering on you. So your world is coming to an end because your candidate is going to lose. That is just sad. It really is pathetic to watch you unravel right before our eyes.

Maybe you need to find Jesus or something man, get out off the blogs for a while.

____________________

jeepdad:

According to Free Republic (I know), Zogby will show a 4 pt. race on Wednesday.

____________________

boomshak:

@OneAngryDwarf:

Lol, coming to an end? Over McCain? ROFLMAO.

If I was depressed, it was after Romney lost in the primaries.

It will actually be amusing to see once America realizes what they have elected with Obama.

____________________

zotz:

I think an appropriate punishment for Boom after Obama becomes the Prez would be to strap him to a chair with his eyelids pinned open like in Clockwork Orange and force him to watch reruns of Countdown With Keith Olberman non-stop until he is re-educated.

LOL!

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
About the Romney thing: The fact that McCain was moron enough to choose that baboon over some body who actually understands economy (Romney) disqualifies his jedgment.

About the other thing: Lets not stoop too low...As you yourself said once in this forum, we are living history, no matter what side we are on. lets stick to the politics and enjoy instead of getting into highschool name calling fights...

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@jeepdad

Trolling the Freeptards again, eh? Did you happen to get the Ras results for tomorrow while you were out?

____________________

wakeup:

orange24,
last night your source was Rachel Maddow, tonight the huffingtonpost... please. Reagan, Gorbachev, UN Sec Gen Cuellar; they all delt with Saddam... granted they were not invited over for coffee in his living room. Hey wait, did you just admit that Saddam was a terrorist?

____________________

carl29:

Let's look beyond the headlines:

*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind

Obama/Biden 51 11 85 48
McCain/Palin 39 81 8 35

There we have the support by party ID. Let's apply this information to "uncle" Ras' party ID sample: Dem. 39.3%, Rep. 33%, Ind. 27.7%.

Let's look how the race will look,

Obama 50.2% McCain 39.5%

More "reasonable," eh?

____________________

Thatcher:

@jeepdad -

my answer to Zogby is ... "So."

That is still within their MOE and is equal to their spread for yesterday.

____________________

boomshak:

@political_junki:

I was just teasing him for making such a big deal about his wife. You libs need to lighten up.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@carl29

Nice some actual analysis. Is that allowed or are you being some sort of marxist for doing that?

____________________

Thatcher:

@jeepdad -

Oh yeah - (stupid me)

And just how do they know the spread of a poll that hasn't been completed tonight?????

It's still 7 pm central and 5 pm pacific. still a lot of time to poll.

Freepers are just mind-f$(cking themselves.

____________________

orange24:

@wakeup,
They didn't lobby on behalf of Hussein. That really doesn't bother you? Clearly it doesn't bother McCain supporters that lobbyists completely run his campaign, but surely we can all agree that anybody that lobbied on behalf of Hussein probably shouldn't be involved in a presidential election. Can't we agree on that? Or are we saying this is another case of the MSM just making stuff up as they go along?

____________________

liz from NJ:

in voting for Obama, I am clearly voting against my short term financial interest since I am in upper 1-5% bracket.

However, I think I am doing the right thing for my children. I want them to live in a country that continues to proper with emphasis on excellence in minds and tolerance and respect toward diversity.

I am an amateur historian. Pax Romana was achieved through incrediblly tolerant attidues toward the "conquered minorities". Ottoman empire had its peak when it embraced and accommodated scholars from all faith and national origines (it was tolerant of Jewish scholars and intellectuals while barbaric Europe was procecuting Jews). Ottoman empire's demise closely concides with rise of its cultural intolerance.

Show me a single country in the history that flourished under intolerant and ignorant social agenda.

Have you seen the Rep convention? My god, these days the only time when you see lily white "perfomers" and "participating audience" is the Rep convention. No other news, entertainment, or other TV programs has such uniformity and total lack of diversity. This is WRONG.

____________________

Thatcher:

@wakeup -

the point is ... McCain still states that Saddam Hussein and Iraq had a part in 9/11 (even though the facts say that is not so). However, if he DOES believe that ... why does he have a guy heading up his transition who aided lobbyists on Saddam's behalf?

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
"You libs need to lighten up."
We are not the ones who get worked up about somebody being somebody else's friend because the second somebody did somebody bad when the first somebody was 8 :)

____________________

WhereisMitt:

Somewhere Romney is saying, "I told you so."

Seriously, after all the taunting my/our side did about Obama not picking Hillary for VP, I have always thought that not picking Romney was a big mistake. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but there have been signs all year that there were some serious economic/financial issues that needed to be addressed by the next President. You combine McCain on foreign policy with Romney on economic issues and it would have been a good ticket once people felt more comfortable with Mitt (as they are now with Obama).

____________________

carl29:

Thank you, OneAngryDwarf :-)

Don't pay attention to the "noisy" ones.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@1Angry,
point well taken. what WAS i thinking?

@boom, i just trying to follow your giggles filled train of logic here. Here is your humor laced wisdom:

1) Your wife is dumb and she smells funny :)
2) Ok, ok, she doesn't smell THAT funny. lol
3) Have you SEEN his wife?

Again, just trying to follow you in order to learn how you arrive at your conclusions. Based on your three comments above, one concludes that you can appraise someone's intellect based solely on their looks? And sight unseen at that.

Now, I know you were trying to be funny, but I know you can be funnier than that. Without trying. In this instance, methinks you were simply trying too hard. Let's focus on the Mar[x]ist polls.

Or, if you don't want to think that hard about Marxism, tell me about Groucho Marx. What do you think is his seminal work? Das Kapital does not count.

____________________

WhereisMitt:

Although I have to add that I thought Obama was smart for picking Biden. I thought Hillary would have created more headaches for him.

____________________

political_junki:

@WhereisMitt:
I agreen with you. Romney would have changed the dynamics of the race, specially in these troubled financial times. McSame's idiocy saved Obama a lot of trouble...

____________________

Thatcher:

@WhereisMitt, @poltical_junki

Agreed on Romney and Biden.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup: you keep saying you want terrorist links and I GAVE YOU terrorist links. sTROLL along here with me here in my wake: up [puns intended] a page or so earlier about Palin's ties with domestic terrorists. One degree of Kevin Bacon.

How many terrorist ties do you want? Are you starting an Hermes collection? You have a couple to get you started.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@WhereIsMITT:
y donde esta Jose Lieberman? Curious minds want to know.

____________________

carl29:

Agree with you guys, political_junki and whereisMitt.

We Obama supporters are glad that McCain picked Palin and not Romney. It will be my worst nightmare having Romney all over the TV talking about the economy with great comfort. I'm really glad Romney is not on the ticket
:-)!!

____________________

political_junki:

@WhereisMitt:
Just to add to my last post:
My parents and a lot of my old relatives live in FL (Arguably most important battleground along with OH).
None of them would vote for Obama since as a matter of principal they dont vote for Democrats but almost half of them including my parents, both, will not vote for McCain either. Guess why:
My Mom: "That woman scares me."
My Dad: "She is a retard."

All their life, they have either voted Republican or voted libertarian and I think they would have voted for McCain if he had picked someone a little more reasonable...
Good that he didnt:)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junki

My Dad: "She is a retard."

Dude I fell out of my chair laughing. I think my dad said the EXACT SAME THING!

Awesome.

____________________

WhereisMitt:

@MNlatteliberal

Lieberman is probably somewhere thinking about how to play nice with the Dems next year since it appears McCain is unlikely to win.

Wasn't he McCain's first choice? Not sure Lieberman would have played well with "THE BASE."

____________________

wakeup:

orange,
In 1987 Saddam was not an enemy of the US, we dealt with him as he fought Iran.
thatcher,
McCain does not believe that Saddam was involved in 911.

____________________

Pazienza:

carl29:
I wish we could take "carl29" seriously, but some of "his" or "her" past statements just don't help her case.
Let me show you,

On October 12, 2008 1:48 PM Carl29 wrote: "Notice that Pazienza CLAIMS that at the beginning of October in 2000 Gore was 51% vs. Bush 40%. FALSE!!!!!!"



Please read the following from CNN:
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
Oct. 2-4
Likely voters' choice for president

Gore 51%
Bush 40
Nader 2
Buchanan 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts


http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/05/tracking.poll/

See, my point? carl29 is NOT a serious contribution to the dialogue.
People are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts, my friend :-)!!!!

____________________

wakeup:

MN,
Palin's terrorist link??? How many bombs???
Obama's terrorist links; Ayers, Dohrn, al-Mansour, Rashid Khalidi...
I do miss Romney, he would have been perfect against Obama.

____________________

masselo:

Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain
CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him

0 53 - M 39

____________________

political_junki:

@Pazienza:
Point taken: It aint over till it is over...

----
By the way anybody noticed todays Survey USA Poll in OHIO: Among ***12%*** who have already voted Obama leads 57-39!!

----
@OneAngryDwarf:
"I think my dad said the EXACT SAME THING!"
....
I think Palin is the most important reason that McCain has lost some of his lead among senior citizens. In OHIO he is leading among voters older than himself by only 6!!!

____________________

carl29:

Pazienza,

Obviously we are talking about two different polls:

This is from GALLUP TRACKING POLL

Last 3 Days: Oct 3-5, 2000
Gore Bush Nader Buchanan
45% 44% 4% 1%

6 Day Rolling Average
Gore Bush Nader Buchanan
46% 44% 3% 1%
Among Likely Voters

See, you are quoting "CNN/GALLUP/USATODAY," but I am quoting Gallup Tracking, my friend :-)

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

I think the McCain camp needs to realize that demonizing any socalled Ayres/Obama connection is not a winning strategy. The 60's, whether it be Radicals, Hippies, Human Rights campaigns, Drugs, or Vietnam only sucked if you lived through the decade. For anyone not old enough to remember the 60's understands that the decade is glorified in todays culture. I also think that when people think of Ayres and the weather underground people think more of protests and anti establismentism and considering only 9% of the country thinks america is on the right track wouldnt it inspire people to get involved in their government again?

____________________

Thatcher:

@wakeup -

October 13, 2008 (yesterday)

Spanish-language Univision published its own sit down with McCain, in which the Arizonan suggested that there was a direct connection between the September 11 terrorist attacks and the war in Iraq.

Asked by the host whether he agreed with Barack Obama that "the Iraq war had nothing to do with the terrorist attacks of 9/11," McCain replied:

"No. We invaded a country that every intelligence agency said was developing weapons of mass destruction. Think of Saddam Hussein in power with oil at 100 dollars a barrel, and all that entails with his commitment which when after he was captured, he stated categorically that he would acquire weapons of mass destruction, and he would use them wherever he could. Now, Iraq--"

"But he had nothing to do with 9/11," the hosted interjected.

"He had a lot to do with invading his neighbor Kuwait, and we had to go to war and fight there," McCain replied. "He had a lot to do with using weapons of mass destruction, he used them previously, so there's no doubt about his commitment to get them."

http://www.univision.com/content/content.jhtml?chid=3&schid=10414&secid=10415&cid=1705268

http://www.univision.com/content/videoplayer.jhtml?cid=1704270

____________________

carl29:

I forgot:

Here is the link to Gallup Tracking back then:

http://web.archive.org/web/20001009015732/http://www.gallup.com/

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

With the way right wingers want the media to do all their fact checking for them its no wonder they let conservative radio hosts do their thinking for them too.

Ya know, there's information out there just for the taking...ever wonder why this new voting generation knows their stuff?

____________________

Pat:

@carl29

I agree. It was also my biggest worry that McCain would have picked Romney. Not only he could speak comfortably about the economy, he was also very good at hitting Obama and defending McCain. However, his biggest contribution to McCain: DELIVERING MICHIGAN AND NEVADA (very high morman population in Nevada and his routes/father in Michigan).

____________________

marctx:

Is it true that this last debate is about the economy again?

Is this going to be the first election that we don't ask the candidates to debate immigration, gun rights, drilling/nuclear/clean coal, gay rights, judicial judges, the death penalty, crime, medicare, education, etc., etc.? I've heard a little but not enough.

____________________

wakeup:

CTP,
Ayers and Obama spent $100 Mil together.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup:
"Palin's terrorist link??? How many bombs????"

about a truck full of them (well, technically it was ammonium nitrate/fertilizer mix), but it did work well enough as a bomb to bring down a federal building in Oklahoma. One Timothy McVey has similar ties to Palins as anyone you listed to Obama. You really ought to read about Palin's pal Black Helicopter Steve.

____________________

political_junki:

@CTPonix4BHObama:
It seemed to me that today Obama was actually daring McCain to use Ayres in the debate. I doubt he would do it without talking to his strategists. If you look McCains Fav/UnFav has dived since he started the Ayres attack. Obama's unfav has gone a notch up but fav is the same...

____________________

carl29:

This is your exact, complete quote:

"Pazienza:
There are 40 days to go until the election. The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows: Obama 48% McCain 44%.

In 2000, 34 days before the election (from hard copy files - unable to find an internet link) The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll showed: Gore 51% Bush 40%.

Bottom line: there is a long way to go before this election is over.


Posted on October 1, 2008 2:13 PM"
========================================

You claimed that GALLUP TRACKING POLL had Gore 51% Bush 40%. My question: It was Gallup Tracking or "CNN/GALLUP/USATODAY"?

Again,

Here is the link to Gallup TRACKING at the beginnig of October, 2000:

Gore 45% Bush 44%

http://web.archive.org/web/20001009015732/http://www.gallup.com/

See, my friend? Any other question? :-)!!!

____________________

carl29:

Where is Pazienza? I can't understand people who don't have the guts to show up after their allegations have been proven WRONG. Well, my friends, what can we do?

____________________

wakeup:

Thatcher,
Your quoting McCain saying "No" as proof of your argument does not convict. McCain never said that Saddam had a role in 911.
MN,
Linking Palin to McVey??? I want to read the writings of Frank Marshal Davis.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@WhereIsMitt -
exactamundo! The entire bevy of McManiacs who lost to him in the GOP primaries (Mitt, Thompson, Huckabee, Giuliani) and other cheerleaders (Lieberman) have all vanished, save for the mayor of 9/11 from the talk show circuit. We now only get the right wing fixture Kelsey Grammer and Giuliani making the rounds.

Over here in MN it got so bad that last Monday during the McVisit, senator Norm Coleman, running for his life against Al Franken, distanced himself from the drone and her mate and didn't even bother showing up under a lame excuse of retuning his campaign.

In short, ladies and gentlemen, the rats have started to abandon the McShip with 3 weeks to go before the election.

Nice

____________________

bmrKY:

"wakeup:
Has there been a poll taken of the Arab-American choice for president?"

Yeah go_to_sleep_boomshat, they're endorsing the guy who has a Saddam lobbyist working for him.

boomshathead, you deserve to be banned for insulting another mans wife. You are truly a worthless human being.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@carl29

You'll notice the sound of crickets from the right whenever verifiable facts start to arrive, or we talk about that mythical skill, "reading."

The trolls are out in force right now and I think it is because the tide has turned and their guy is really on the run. They are in danger of experiencing an electoral rout and they are probably pissed off about it.

Of course if they had bothered to govern this country in a sane and efficient manner, adopted sound fiscal policy and helped promote the welfare of their fellow human beings (both foreign and domestic) I'm sure this election would look differently.

____________________

bmrKY:

Hey boomshat_fallen_asleep, how do you explain McCains SADDAM connections? WHAT IS MCCAIN HIDING? WHAT DOES HE REALLY KNOW ABOUT SADDAM? IS TIMMONS A SLEEPER TERRORIST AGENT SENT HERE TO DESTROY AMERICA?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Yeah it is like McCain has a communicable disease. I saw the other day that Crist decided to go to Disneyworld instead of be seen in public with McCain.

Good news for the downticket Dems this cycle. I think O should make a swing through KY and maybe GA to help those tickets out.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "In this election, we have a choice between and INCOMPETENT DIOT and a SMOOTH-TALKING MARXIST."

I wonder why you & your fellow Republicans chose 'this idiot' as a nominee so early with so many states still yet to vote in the primaries :rolleyes:

____________________

carl29:

OneAngryDwarf,

As a 2nd year law student, I know how relevant facts are. If I say X, it is because I've got the proof to back it up. I won't make up things out of air, LOL!!! I love being challenged by other people's allegations, but what I don't like is people running away after I bring up the facts.

Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinions, but her own facts? No way Jose :-)!!

____________________

wakeup:

MN,
Is it true that Coleman avoided the McCain visit?

____________________

Pazienza:

carl 29:

Sorry, my friend, but you are wrong again. I am quoting from the exact same tracking poll you are. Only you are quoting only the Oct 3-5 data and ignoring the Oct 2-4 data.


Oct 3-5, 2000**
Gore 45
Bush 44

Oct 2-4, 2000**
Gore 51
Bush 40

http://web.archive.org/web/20001109153600/www.gallup.com/Election2000/4waytrialheat4.asp

Look, anybody can make a mistake. But the fact is that the very same poll you are using supports the fact that they reported an 11 point Gore lead over Bush in early October.

____________________

bmrKY:

Hey BoomWake, has RAS done a poll of who lobbyists for former Middle Eastern Dictators support for President?

So far McCain is leading that demographic 100% to 0%! I told you it was tightening!

____________________

slinky:

Frontline is on in less than 10 minutes. The Choice 2008. Watch it.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@carl29

I think you are correct but your statement missed the mark on only one thing.

You said:

Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinions, but her own facts? No way Jose :-)!!

I would point out that you obviously haven't watched enough Fox News lately. They have no problem making up facts. :)

____________________

mirrorball:

@marctx: The third and final debate is on "the economy and domestic policy," according to the web site for the debate commission.

First debate was supposed to be primarily about foreign policy and the second was "all topics."

____________________

cinnamonape:

wakeup~ Here ya go...it's the list of all the "radical" projects the Woods Fund and the Annenberg Foundation has given over the years.

Have fun...most you'll find are pretty mainstream and blase...especially during the years Obama was on the Board of Directors. Yawn!

http://www.annenbergfoundation.org/grants_database/


____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup: you asked for how many bombs, I told you how many bombs. Btw, Ayers, if you want to get technical was never convicted of any bombings. Palin's pals, meanwhile, the same pals who had had repeatedly counseled her and had open access to her as a governor and mayor, were arguably in the same movement that produced a convicted domestic terrorist Timothy McVeigh.

Tenuous, you say? No more tenuous than the efforts to pin Obama with domestic terrorism. Palins are a bit closer, I'd submit to you.

Have a nice day. Oh, and do read the link in your spare time. It's not quite drudge report, but you will enjoy it, I trust.

____________________

boomshak:

ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%

Lead shrinks again to 3.8%

____________________

bmrKY:

Boom_sleep, why is McCain being quiet about his connections to SADDAM? If he can't tell us the truth about his connections to SADDAM, how can we trust him to tell us the truth about anything else? McCain himself said that this is a race about CHARACTER, not the ISSUES! WHY IS MCCAIN ASSOCIATING WITH HUSSEIN? NOT BARACK HUSSEIN... SADDAM HUSSEIN!

____________________

boomshak:

Funny to see Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup (LV's) compared to CBS/NYTimes.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@wakeup and other Republican trolls

This constant complaining to the media is old. Throughout this campaign attention has been focused on Ayers, Rezko, and Wright. Today, CNN tried to bury in it's coverage Sarah Palin's connection to the radical Alaska Independence Party. They spoke briefly about it around 1PM EST. No one has spoken about it in the primetime hour. There has been very little coverage about the ramifications of Troopergate. There has been 0 coverage of John McCain's membership on the board of the US Council of World Freedom. The facts are simple. For the first time in US history, both the candidate running for president and vice president of a major party have been found to have committed ethics violations. That's huge. The media has largely ignored these facts in order to give Barack Obama the front runner treatmeant. They'd love to see this race climax in a close election and to that end they are attempting to manipulate voter opinion. So far, the average voter is tuning out. 68 million people tuned in to watch the last debate. When that number drops, any preferential treatment Senator McCain has been receiving will come to an end. What will become news is his failure to connect with voters and the scandal that surrounds Gov. Palin.

____________________

wakeup:

Frontline has always been the gold standard for me... I hope they do not disappoint like so many other media outlets. By the way, I am convinced the Jim Lehrer is voting McCain.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%

Lead shrinks again to 3.8%"

Yeah, Zogby blows and Obama is still leading in his crappy poll that has D and R registration within 2 points, when it's more like a 6-8 point D advantage. What's your point?

____________________

WhereisMitt:

@sunnymi

Hey-I was all ready here in PA to vote for Romney. He dropped out so ridiculously early that I never got the chance.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup
yeah, it's true. Coleman was retooling his campaign, he claimed, and pulling all the negative ads.

@1Angry
yeah, I saw that too about Christ. And Christ, mind you, as either Keith or Rachel reminded us last night, was on McCain's short list of VP candidates. The whole thing is surreal: Governor Christ, you just won a visit from your Party's candidate for President! What are you going to do?!

- I am going to Disneyland!

LMAO.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Zogby = ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

I am watching McCain on the news rehash, and I telling you, the man looks like he escaped from the Island of Dr. Moreau. Turtleman personified.

____________________

bmrKY:

"wakeup:
By the way, I am convinced the Jim Lehrer is voting McCain."

And I'm convinced that boom_sleep is on crack. Who gives a flying f*** who Lehrer supports? Why does it matter? OH SH!T, LEHRERZ VOTIN 4 CAIN! LOOK 4 CAIN TO CLOSE GAP WITHIN MOE BY SUNDEEE! LOL OMG STFU!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Wakeup: You seem pretty good at finding all the bogus propaganda about Obama. I'm surprised that you haven't been able to locate a poll about Arab-American attitudes about the candidates this election. I found it simply by Goggling "Arab American Poll". Maybe you left off the "American"?

http://middleeast.about.com/b/2008/09/22/poll-of-arab-american-voters-obama-over-mccain-54-33.htm


BTW Obama does much better amongst ArabAmerican women...the men almost split between Obama and Mccain.

And what may really suprise you is just how close those numbers mirror "White Americans"!

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4% Lead shrinks again to 3.8% "

Sure it will shrink if you poll without any party ID advantage. Remember it is on this very poll Obama has been leading among Indies by double digits.

Moreover I will once again say this....Even if the lead goes down to O+1 the electoral college will be in Obama's favor.

McCain is getting only 45% of his vote from states where he is leading whereas Obama is getting 68% of his votes from states where he is leading. In essence 55% of McCain's vote is electorally useless!

____________________

wakeup:

MN,
Coleman is pulling his negative ads against Frankin? How close is that race? Who is the third guy running?

____________________

RussTC3:

Zogby:

10/12 = 49/43
10/13 = 48/44
10/14 = 49/43
10/15 = 48/44

You know what that's called?

NOISE.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
Funny to see Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup (LV's) compared to CBS/NYTimes."

It's funny to see your posts compared to sane and rational people.

____________________

marctx:

mirrorball:

"@marctx: The third and final debate is on "the economy and domestic policy,"

I think that is unfair to the public. Now that I'm forced into acceptance that Obama will be the next president. I want him to state in these debates is "centrist" positions on the issues I listed so that he will have to follow through and stop Pelosi from introducing amnesty, gun restrictions, elimination for the death penalty, roll back of the Clinton welfare reforms, and other socialist programs that the democrats might try and pass.

He already has the economy issue locked up and I agree mostly, but I want him on record so that he cannot have an extreme leftest agenda when he promises to be a centrist.

____________________

carl29:

Oct 11-13, 2008
Obama 51
McCain 42

Oct 11-13, 2000**
Bush 48
Gore 44

Yes, Pazienza, 2000 and 2008 look strikingly similarly.

This was the final result according to Gallup Tracking:

Nov 5-6, 2000**

Bush 47
Gore 45

Things don't change that much, eh?

____________________

sunnymi:


@marctx, You can rest assured Obama will not be an extremist in his governance....he believes in working with people bringing them on to the same page and that is how he will govern - with common sense and pragmatism.

____________________

bmrKY:

Hey boom_sleep... Kerry just PWN'd McCain on SADDAM LOBBYIST ties! THIS STORY IS GETTIN OUT THERE BOOMSLEEP! McCain can't keep hiding from his SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES! WHY DOESN'T MCCAIN COME CLEAN WITH HIS SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES?

____________________

marctx:

sunny & mirror,

I also left out stopping Reid from sneaking in another drilling ban. I heard Obama say in the last debate he supports it drilling.

____________________

sunnymi:


Obama broke through 80 for the very first time on INTRADE. He has already been trading over 80 on the IOWA ELECTRONIC markets for sometime now.

Intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/

Iowa(IEM):
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html

____________________

bmrKY:

Come on boomsleep, what do you think about McCain's ties to SADDAM LOBBYISTS? Does this mean McCain supports the activities of MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISTS and DICTATORS? Can we TRUST John McCain to keep our children SAFE from ISLAMIC TERRORISTS, or will McCain CONTINUE to appoint even more LOBBYISTS for ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS to his cabinent? I want to know if I can TRUST this man to keep my family safe. I just don't know after his SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES!

____________________

Ryan in MO:

pollster.com - asleep this afternoon, and evening?

____________________

Pazienza:

carl 29 -

All I did was present factual data (which you wrongly attacked as being false) and said the election wasn't over yet. I made no other statement or prediction. Don't know what you are getting in such a tizzy over. Calm down.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@wakeup, you have GOT to be kidding me!
do you not follow politics other than trolling or are you allergic to google?

ok, i'll humor you: the third guy is a Jesse Ventura appointee, who served out the rest of Paul Welstone term, after the latter perished in a plane crash. Dean Barkley is the last remnant of that Independent or whatever party that Ventura popularized.

Coleman did not really pull all the negative ads. His ads still smell of negativity, but meanwhile, both the RNCC (spit) and the so-called US Chamber of Commerce (you can google them, whoops, I forgot) have been going nuclear on Franken.

Franken, meanwhile, has pulled from behind to be either even or slightly ahead of Coleman, but within MOE, as far as I'm concerned. What does not help is that for some reason MN is hard for the pollsters to gauge in this cycle, even in the Presidential race it's been very screwy and imho not reflective of the blowout we will see on the 4th.

The Senatorial race has swung wildly in the last 2-3 weeks, giving double digit advantage to either Coleman or Franken, depending on the pollster or the day. Internals are not revealed, typically. The last couple of polls (Star Tribune, todays Quinni) show Al slightly ahead by a couple or so.

Dean Barkley is pulling high teens and not likely to win, but enjoying abnormally high ratings because of "MN nice" not liking the negativity, I suppose.

That is my spin, in a nutshell.

____________________

wakeup:

MN,
Why is that state so hard to Poll?

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

wakeup, i dunno. why?

____________________

cinnamonape:

wakeup: Here are some of the groups that received grants from the Chicago Annenberg Challenge while Barack was on the Board in 1996-7. Half of the external partners were universities or professional education organizations (e.g., Chicago State University, Columbia College Chicago, DePaul University, the Erikson Institute, Governors State University, National-Louis University, Northeastern Illinois University, Roosevelt University, the University of Chicago).The Chicago Chamber of Commerce, the Field Museum, the Chicago Symphony, the Algebra Project, The Great Books Foundation), Chicago Academy of Sciences, the Chicago Children's Museum, the Kohl Children's Museum, the Garfield Park Conservatory, the Suzuki-Orff School of Music, and parks.

Your insuations that this represents a radical movement is beyond insane. The only thing "radical" about it was that it represented a marked departure for a wealthy Republican businessman to invest in the future of urban children.

____________________

carl29:

Pazienza,

As you could have already noticed, when I say something, I hand the proof right away, there on the table. However, your comment that the information was "FROM HARD COPY FILES - UNABLE TO FIND AN INTERNET LINK" makes no sense to me. I challenged your claim with the facts in my hand. My advise to you would be: Be straight foward with the claim in one hand and the proof in the other, so nothing will be left for argument.

If you read my posts, I am NOT into "prediction business." I love facts, research for them, and bring them up.

===========================================

Now, since you like, just like me, see how things were going in past elections, these were the numbers in 2000 at this time in the race:

Oct 11-13, 2000**
Bush 48
Gore 44

Oct 11-13, 2008
Obama 51
McCain 42

____________________

cinnamonape:

It IS the McCain-Palin Campaign, isn't it wakeup?

Here's Sister Sarah at the 9/11 Memorial site: "I think our presence in Iraq and in Afghanistan will lead to further security of our nation. Again, because the mission is to take the fight over there, do not let THEM come over here and attempt again what THEY accomplished here. And that was some destruction. Terrible destruction on that day. But, since September 11th, Americans uniting and rebuilding and committing to never letting that happen again."

Except that the invasion of Iraq was against a nation that had NO involvement in 9/11.

Given that McCain failed to correct the Godz-drilla from Wazilla, this remains the official position.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Umm folks. In 2000 and 2004 there were not UNANIMOUS leads for either candidate 3 weeks before the election. I love the comparisons. This is a VERY different mood too for the electorate. And to you Romney wishers. Oh what a small memory you have. Can you imagine the CRAZY right going for a MORMON? ARE YOU CRAZY? LOL You act as if they are tolerant. Romney may have gained NV for McCain, that's about it. MI wouldn't even have turned. No one cares.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

NW Patrick:

On election day RCP polling average was about 2% for Bush. He won by about 2%. Obama is up 8%. McCain has 3 weeks to erase an 8% deficit. NOT!

____________________

cinnamonape:

"MarcTx:I heard Obama say in the last debate he supports it drilling."

What he said is that he supported off-shore drilling...but that many firms that already had off-shore exploration and drilling leases were not drilling. He suggested that these firms be compelled to surrender their leases if they didn't use them within two years.

Essentially what is happening is that these corporations are just reserving more and more areas for "future drilling" without actually undertaking activity. They'll only do it when their own oil-production diminishes and they price is even higher than it is today.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

NW Patrick, agreed. I remember the intolerance of the Church of Latter Day Saints during the GOP primaries.
And that pastor of McCain's yesterday, would be unable to do a straight face invocation about how our superior god needs prayers that he is not gonna get from all the Buddhists and Muslims praying to the wrong god. There would be no "my god can beat up your god" dogma if the other god is the wrong brand of Jesus.

____________________

marctx:

As I start to soften to Obama and his positions, I continue to here Obama surrogates insult Gov. Palin. It fires up my hatred of the media and Obama supporters.

If Sarah Palin was a democrat you would have hour long tributes to her greatness. This is small town mom that can hunt and run a successful business, scored the winning shot in the AL state basketball championship, was a beauty queen, television icon, raises five kids, and still makes the time to join the PTA, win the mayorship, then the become the governor, take on the corruption, and slash the budget, and become THE MOST POPULAR GOVERNER IN THE UNITED STATES. This is Hollywood movie stuff if she was a democrat! We love Sarah Palin. That is why she draws 60k in FL and 46k in VA. STOP MAKING US HATE YOU! She is a a super-mom. You will see turnout like no other election because of her.

McCain is acting like an idiot, you will easily win on that. As the Britney guy said "leave Sarah alone!!"

____________________

Pazienza:

carl29:

I am somewhat of a political junkie and it sounds like you are too. I still have handwritten notes from the 2000 election where I would daily write down the results of the various tracking polls. I did try to find a link at the time I made the post but didn't find one. When I originally made the post in question there was discussion on this site about the validity of the 2000 Gallup Polling methods, but no one questioned whether in early October Gore had an 11 point lead in the Gallup Poll. Your point is well taken about having a link. But on the other hand - to attack and criticize a post as false without checking just because no link was provided is not right. I don't post garbage and quite frankly, I was deeply offended by the viciousness and wrongness of your attacks.

But enough is enough on this matter. You sound like a good person and have strong views. Let us bury the hatchet (I hope that's not offensive to anyone) and move on and enjoy the politics of this presidential election.

____________________

carl29:

NW Patrick,

I think that back in 2004 the overwhelming majority of polls were pointing to the same direction:

Average: Bush 48.3% Kerry 46.2%


Newsweek (LV) 10/14 - 10/15
Bush 50% Kerry 45% Bush +5

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/11 - 10/14
Bush 49% Kerry 46% Bush +3

CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11
Bush 47% Kerry 46% Bush +1

ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11
Bush 49% Kerry 46% Bush +3

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10
Bush 48% Kerry 50% Kerry +2

Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/7 - 10/9
Bush 50% Kerry 46% Bush +4

Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7
Bush 47% Kerry 46% Bush +1

GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7
Bush 49% Kerry 46% Bush +3

Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4
Bush 48% Kerry 45% Bush +3

ICR (762 LV)** 10/1 - 10/5
Bush 51% Kerry 46% Bush +5

ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4
Bush 46% Kerry 47% Kerry +1

CBS/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3
Bush 48% Kerry 47% Bush +1

Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3
Bush 46% Kerry 45% Bush +1

____________________

carl29:

Couldn't agree more, Pazienza.

I am having the time of my life :-)!!

____________________

NW Patrick:

It's over.

http://www2.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750501

Kids give Obama a 19 point lead! LOL

____________________

NW Patrick:

MARCTX Ohhhh POOR POOR Sarah. She walked into the race like she knew what she was doing attacking someone she didn't even know. She can handle it. Or can she?

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@carl29
claro, pero no hay nunca bastante a las encuestas. y siempre son muy lento. y hola :)

buenos noches.

____________________

carl29:

Que tal, MNlatteliberal? Si, parece que este año vamos a tener muchas encuestas, yupi!!!

Siempre me sorprende lo bueno de tu español, felicitaciones :-)!!

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@NW Patrick

she still doesn't do anything but attack Obama, even after McCain has started defending him.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

@marctx
Sorry to pop your boner, but Sarah wasn't winking and blowing kisses at you.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@NW Patrick:
That poll was BOGUS!! FAIL! Show me the internals! The liberal kids were clearly overrepresented! Oh, and where are the kids over 65? They are McCain's strongest demographic and they were conveniently absent! FAIL!

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
Go back to the other side marc. Sarah is an ignorant and extremist Christian that wants to impose her religious beliefs on the rest of us. She does not understand the constitution and the possibility of her becoming the president would be a serious threat to this country.

____________________

RussTC3:

I hate the up/down nature of this CBS/NY Times poll, but to criticize it for being part of the liberal media is nonsense.

A 2004 CBS/NY Times poll from 2004 (10/28-30) had Bush up by 3% (50/47). That was pretty close to the final result.

Regardless, average these polls out all together (the upper outliers and and the lower outliers) and we have a 5-8pt, or so, lead for Obama.

____________________

marctx:


Pat & Boomfail, I've already acknowledged Obama is gonna win. But take you partisan hat off and look at Gov. Palin's life and acknowledge this is "Rudy" movie times ten. Ignore her positions or your qualifications tests. Her life story is incredible. Can you even claim that you in your life have met the test of greatness even once as Gov. Palin has met time after time. She is the American dream on nitro.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

muchos, carl29, pero en tres setimanas, no hay nada mas! como se dice "withdrawals" en espa~ol? :)
y mi espa~ol es de quatros a~os en escuela y despues, quando viajamos a sud, a las islas de caribien por siete o diez dias. y nada mas.

ahora mijo lo estudia tambien. tercer a~o. y yo tengo que ayudarle. es muy deficil por un hombre viejo :)

hasta ma~ana.

____________________

Viperlord:

I see nothing to admire about Palin. Corrupt and un-knowledgeable, and her extreme intolerant views have been covered, so no, I don't feel any obligation to say a positive word about her, I can't find anything to like about her.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

marctx, sorry, she has ridden her wave of intolerance and cronyism as far as that wave could push her. mccain was myopic in picking her as a running mate, and that much has been already discussed.

but forget about us here on the fringe of the pollster.com, look at how the mainstream america has been increasingly rejecting her, just as they were getting to know her. her negatives are through the roof, she is no longer even the most popular gov, as of two weeks ago.

her nickname barracuda was not a compliment - it was given to her by classmates in hs for snitching them out. ff to her "education". FAIL. ff to the mayoral race - she rode her base of religious extremists (those are the Pentecostals from TX and OK who migrated to AK during the first oil crisis of the '70s, following the oil money), and then appointed them left and right as payback. she proceded to eliminate any opposing thought, firing anyone with a different viewpoint.

the same wave carried her into governorship. alaska is predominantly white xtian male, and that is the extent of her appeal. she does not appeal to women. she threatens housewives and comes off as a bimbo to the professional women with her stupid winking and wiggling.

finally, look at her response to the current power abuse verdict. she is in denial, she is openly lying about it. this is not a healthy or even SANE reaction. the woman is off the deep end.

she cannot talk to independent media; her interviews have to be either scripted or staged and crafted with the limbaughs or the hannities. if she cannot face anderson cooper, how is she going to face putin?

____________________

Viperlord:

"Test of greatness" Are you quoting someone from Fox Noise? WTF?

____________________

bmrKY:

"As I start to soften to Obama and his positions, I continue to here Obama surrogates insult Gov. Palin. It fires up my hatred of the media and Obama supporters."

Who the hell on here is INSULTING Sarah Palin? I'll give you credit marc, you seem to be one of the brighter conservatives on here (at least you aren't a foam at the mouth psycho ala boom_sleep), but you are dead wrong on this. I'll put it like this. No one cares that Obama is a dad and has two beautiful daughters that love the very white and very Christian Jonas Brothers (see: Obama out-takes from Denver video for proof of what a loving father he is), they still call him things such as TERRORIST and TRAITOR. So why should anyone take it easy on Palin just because she's a "hockey mom" (whatever the hell that means) and can kill a moose with her bare hands and/or shoot one from a helicopter? Yeah, it's nice and folksy. No one is doubting that. But if it isn't insulting to continually aledge that Obama is a terrorist, then it shouldn't be insulting to ask whether or not Sarah is qualified to take over should McCain win and something ever happen to him. People need to stop being so sensitive about her. The odd thing is, us men take it easier on her than women do. Women actually seem to be more looking at her qualifications, while the men are looking at... well, I'll leave that one up to you. It's not our fault that she refuses to speak to the "liberal" media, and when she does talk to them she gets tricked by those awful "gotcha" questions such as "What newspapers do you read?"

Listen, I'm not saying she's an awful person in "real life." She may be as sweet as can be away from the campaign trail when she's not calling anyone who opposes her and McCain a terrorist. I just think you're buying too much into the whole "Hockey mom/moose hunter" stuff and not evaluating her like you would Obama, McCain, Biden, Bush, Kerry, etc. No democratic Obama supporter is going to pull punches with her, you know better than that, just like Boom and Kip and yourself don't pull punches with Obama and Biden. No one is saying she should be stoned to death. Her ideology just doesn't appeal to us, and her "qualifications" don't help matters. I don't care that she can hunt, and that she's a reformer, and that she is just like me. That's great and all, but I don't want someone "just like me" to be president. I consider myself of the "Joe Six Pack" mold and I don't want someone who I can have a beer with this time around, I want someone who can fix our current problems. I want someone who I think has a positive vision for the future and who is smarter than me, and smarter than the current president. My view is that we should always want to do BETTER than we currently are. We should want to advance; we should want to go forward, not backwards.

And in the words of Amy Poehler: "It is NEVER sexist to question a female politicians' credentials!"

____________________

DTM:

On the recent poll releases from the LA Times and CBS/NYT:

As I noted before, recently these high-single-to-double-digit-lead-for-Obama "outliers" have become more and more common, and the low-single-digit-lead-for-Obama polls less and less common. 538 makes the same point, and this is also why the national trend chart here at Pollster continues to show Obama gaining. Frankly, I think people who ignore all this data are simply fooling themselves.

On a point from WAY above:

Likely no one cares, but I wanted to note that it was erroneously claimed above:

"[N]o corporations actually 'pay' taxes. they just load the cost of their taxes into the prices they charge for their good and services. The average American 'pays' Corporate taxes."

In fact, economists long ago determined that the incidence of the corporate tax (who ultimately pays for it) does not fall on consumers, nor on labor, but rather on capital income. The full explanation for that conclusion is a bit complex, but the basic thing you need to know is that prices for consumers are set by supply and demand in the relative markets, and therefore corporations simply cannot adjust the prices for their products upward to recoup their taxes. And the same is true for the labor market--prices for labor are subject to supply and demand--or any other input into a corporation's business. Instead, corporate taxes necessarily come out of who gets the margin between the market-set prices for corporate products and the market-set prices for corporate inputs, namely those who supply capital to corporations.

So, that is why a corporate tax cut is properly seen as just a variation on a capital gains cut (or a capital loss deduction increase). Accordingly, directly these tax measures benefit relatively few Americans.

Of course, the argument from "supply-siders" has long been that giving tax breaks to the relatively wealthy few will indirectly benefit everyone else by stimulating greater investment in the economy. But suffice it to say that in the current political environment, supply-side theories don't have a lot of appeal.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

I say this with no partisan slant: If Sarah Palin were Obama's running mate, I would be scared to death at what more damage could be done to our country. We are talking one heartbeat away from a finger on the button, and this woman can't even name a Supreme court case or even a newspaper that she reads! But you don't have to listen to little ol' me, gosh darnit. Just read any of the many CONSERVATIVES that are afraid and downright embarrassed that McShame put the country at risk by choosing her.

She's a wonderful mom, very attractive, but my God, there is nothing between her ears. Someone please break it to her gently that dinosaurs didn't walk the earth 4,000 years ago.

____________________

marctx:

I'm getting mad!

MNlatteliberal:

you are the sissy that i thought you were. you're band-geek attitude would never understand greatness.

You think it is funny that John Stewart says your wife has male parts. be a man or i'll do it for you sissy.

zotz:

have you ever done anything in you pathetic life to influence history...no! you want to post comments while real Americans show greatness. What have you done? Nothing I guess.

You liberals don't even understand what its like to achieve greatness?

____________________

tjampel:

Gov. Palin has a political brilliance and cunning are second to none...or maybe to one---Bill Clinto, as evidenced by her precipitous rise to power in Alaska. Hiring a PR consultant and a Stevens lobbyist and succeeding in bringing 17 Million in pork to a town of 5500 (at the time) stood out so much, at the time, that Sen. McCain even took notice (and criticized her actions...then).

Getting appointed to Alaska's top energy regulatory body was a result of the good connections she'd made with Stevens (she'd headed up one of his PACs). Finding the opportune moment to denounce its chairman for corruption (which was justified) instantly transformed this former pork guzzler and free-spender (when it came to public works and highway construction at least, if not rape kits---she left office in Wasila leaving the town over 10 million in debt) to a squeaky clean whistle-blower/reformer. Knowing the right moment to jump in against Murkowski (when he'd hit 20% favorability) was also a brilliant move, and beating Knowles proved that she was a tough campaigner and good debater.

That said she's a horrific choice for national office, having neither the temperment, intellectual ability, knowledge/understanding or even prior interest in the issues that affect the lives of all Americans. Her views, in the areas she does care about (cultural issues) are far to the right. Americans know this. As a result her ratings have tanked and she's dragging McCain into the ground.

____________________

bmrKY:

"marctx:
I'm getting mad!

MNlatteliberal:

you are the sissy that i thought you were. you're band-geek attitude would never understand greatness."

Wow. Guess I spoke to soon when I said you weren't a foam-at-the-mouther like boom_sleep, and saying you were a good (but misguided) conservative. You need to chill the F down, dude. You're kinda insane in the membrane.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"MarcTx: " This is small town mom that can hunt and run a successful business"

Well except for that car-wash business- and I assume you are speaking of her husbands Fishing business?

" scored the winning shot in the AL state basketball championship" - Untrue. A myth. She scored the "final points" in that championship. But Wasilla was already up by 10 points when she came in (she had spent the last half of the season on the bench with a broken foot) in the last two minutes. The coach simply wanted to get her on the floor so that she would win a share of the trophy. Wasilla ended up winning by six after she was fouled and scored the "icing" free throws.

"was a beauty queen" Third Place...and not actually even Ms. Congeniality, it turns out.

"television icon"...Icon? You must be kidding.

____________________

bmrKY:

"You liberals don't even understand what its like to achieve greatness?"

Okay, seriously. Now you're speaking in outer space talk. What the hell does liking Sarah Palin have to do with "achieving greatness?" Again, it's awesome that she's "just like me", but that doesn't mean that I want her anywhere near the White House.

You just need to calm the hell down, homie.

____________________

zotz:

Andrew Sullivan had a good post on Palin

Here is Michael Goldfarb writing on the McCain campaign's blog today:

"So what part of Governor's Palin's remarks are 'beyond the pale.' Perhaps Mr. Plouffe does not like Governor Palin's inference that Barack Obama palled around with Ayers because Barack Obama has a different view of America than most of us. Yet the Obama campaign has offered no alternate explanation--they have not conceded that the relationship was simply the result of a serious error in judgment."

Palin said that Obama palled around with "terrorists," plural. And Obama does not have a different view of America than "most of us." Most of us love this country but know that its imperfections are worth tackling. Palin believes the country is already perfect and all criticism is close to treason or "otherness". Palin is the outlier in American history: turning patriotism into an ideological neurosis.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/

____________________

cinnamonape:

BTW Anyone know why pollster.com staff have been tremendously slow in putting up polls today.Many National and several state polls have failed to be placed up.

It's curious.

____________________

marctx:

bmrKY:

Thanks for you're comments, But sorry, I am a democrat starting to get on Obama's side but I hate insults on a great American Sarah Palin. Ignore her position and acknowledge her life story. She is amazing. I am close to supporting Obama but don't insult Gov. Palin.

____________________

boomshak:

These wild outlier polls like CBS/NYTimes serve only to lull the moonbats into a sense of overconfidence.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Here are some more wild outliers for you:
dKos/R2K: 52-41
Gallup: 53-43
Battleground: 53-40
ABC/Post: 53-43

seems more like a trend, my friends!

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

Ulysses:

DATELINE June 2009: Predictions

President Obama invites Senator McCain to a reconciliation dinner; appoints him head of bipartisan Veterans Affairs Task Force.

Sarah Palin steps down as Governor of Alaska. Signs contract to host the new Fox show Sarah & Folks.

Boomshak experiences revelation atop Mount McKinley. Registers as a Democrat.

US team develops first 100 mpg automobile.

George W. Bush accepts post as head of the National Softball Association.

____________________

bmrKY:

"Ignore her position and acknowledge her life story."

I respect your views, but ignoring the issues last election is what gave us another term of Bush. I just cannot afford to ignore the positions and issues this time. I acknowledge that she has a good life story, and like I said if she wants to hunt moose and watch her kids play hockey I'm okay with that. It doesn't bother me. But I refuse to ignore her and McCain's positions and views. Do you realize how crazy that sounds after we've had 8 years of a President "just like me?" Especially with the economy in the mess it is, with people losing their jobs and unemployment rising. As much as I want to live in a country where everything is going so wonderful that I can afford to ignore the issues and positions and just focus on which candidate has the better life story, it just isn't realistic. People are struggling. My parents 401ks are in jeopardy. Some of my family members are struggling to make house/rent payments. That's what I care about. Nothing against Sarah Palin as a person... like I said, away from the campaign trail she may be the nicest, sweetest person in the World. I'm from Kentucky, so I know a lot of nice evangelical people (I come from a family of southern Baptists) whose social and political views are scary to me. But this election is a lot bigger than life stories and social values to me and the majority of voters.

Like I said, I respect your views. I just happen to disagree with you.

____________________

zotz:

I am not overconfident. I remember 2000 and 2004. Obama has to avoid mistakes. If he does that he will win. The Ayers thing does not have legs and neither does any of the rest of that Andy Martin crap but if Obama doesn't handle it right it could hurt him. Obama has appeared consistant and McCain has been all over the place (erratic). I also think that Obama is just smarter and more quick witted than McCain. But I have seen Obama make mistakes through overconfidence so that is why these debates make me nervious.

____________________

common sense:

Folks : The reason the GOP will not bring up Rev. Wright is Herbert Armstrong and the Assembly of God. Sarah and her parents were members of this so-called "Church". Just Google 'Assembly of God' and visit their website. Health care? - no need - Sarah will touch you. End of times? - look out if Sarah gets her finger on the nuclear button. Good news for Jews. Though you are not going to paradise - you will not burn in hell for all eternity. Or so they say. Listen - I don't care if Sarah is a Fifth Monarchist (look that one up)or Mother Theresa. She is downright scary.

____________________

[nemesis]:

For anybody interested, the Canadian election looks like it's going to the Conservative Party, with a minority government. Not sure anybody cares, but I thought I'd share.
Anybody interested can follow the final polling through http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/electionResults.html

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
These wild outlier polls like CBS/NYTimes serve only to lull the moonbats into a sense of overconfidence."

hey boom_sleep, glad you decided to get back on here. I was wondering what your take is on McCain's ties to SADDAM LOBBYISTS? Does this mean McCain supports the activities of MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISTS and DICTATORS? Can we TRUST John McCain to keep our children SAFE from ISLAMIC TERRORISTS, or will McCain CONTINUE to appoint even more LOBBYISTS for ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS to his cabinent? I want to know if I can TRUST this man to keep my family safe. I just don't know after his SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES! Why doesn't McCain come clean and tell the truth to the American people about his SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES? Don't the American people deserve to know why McCain has SADDAM LOBBYIST TIES?

____________________

zotz:

This is the key to Obama's success. People want leadership not smear attack politics.

"After several weeks in which the McCain campaign unleashed a series of strong political attacks on Mr. Obama, trying to tie him to a former 1960s radical, among other things, the poll found that more voters see Mr. McCain as waging a negative campaign than Mr. Obama. Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/us/politics/15poll.html?hp

____________________

DTM:

Sarah Palin strikes me as being in roughly the same category as Monica Goodling, and I will admit I am not exactly sure what I am supposed to find admirable about these people.

____________________

Basil:

Palin is a political fantasy babe.

She's Miss October in the "Gals of the GOP" calendar, where she shows off her mavericky survival skills to great advantage. Provocatively (yet somehow conservatively) clad in the steamy carcass of a freshly killed bull moose, Sarah's tightly-focused, high-powered allure is irresistible to the primitive, irrational, freedom-loving beast in all of us. Watch out for Sarah. She'll get under YOUR skin--and before the long Alaskan night is over she'll eat your heart.

How's it going, marc?

Unfortunately, Miss November is Dick Cheney.

____________________

faithhopelove:

EVIDENCE THAT VA WILL FLIP FOR OBAMA

1) The 5 most recent polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there; in all 5 of these polls, Obama has hit 50% or better (7 of the last 8 VA polls have shown Obama at 50% or better).

2) 11 of the last 15 polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there.

3) The latest VA poll (from right-leaning Rasmussen) shows very little room for movement in VA, with both candidates having solidified their bases, and with independents evenly split.

4) This same poll finds Obama with a "very favorable" score that is 11% higher than McCain's--an enthusiasm gap that suggests Obama's likely voters are even more likely than McCain's likely voters.

5) Before the VA primary, pollsters tended to under-estimate Obama's margin of victory there; Rasmussen, whose most recent poll of VA shows Obama up 3, under-estimated Obama's margin of victory by 11 points.

6) Most if not all VA polls have not included cell-only voters, who are disproportionately young and for Obama; multiple studies have found that this omission leads to an under-estimation of Obama's support by 2-3%. VA has the 3rd-largest cell-only population in the country; see:
/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.html

7) Obama is outspending McCain on advertising in VA by a 3 to 1 margin; see:
http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/wiscads_release_100808.pdf

8) Obama has the backing of 4 of 6 living VA governors, including the current one, as well as one of VA's current senators. Former governor Mark Warner, who is crushing his Republican competition in his senate race (and who was the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention), may have reverse coattails.

9) Obama has the superior ground game, with over 60 field offices in the state; McCain has about 20.

____________________

Basil:

In this poll, if the women who are switching to Obama are married to the men who are sticking with McCain, you could still have the now famous Spousal Stockholm Syndrome Bradley-Wilder Effect where husbands for McCain frighten wives for Obama into voting for McCain at the last minute. Could we see a poll on that please?

I think I'm joking but I'm not too sure.

____________________

bmrKY:

@ Basil

LOL. Hadn't really thought of that. Well, they could always tell their husband that they're voting for McCain, and then still vote for Obama once they get behind the booth.

Of course, we all know what boom_wakeup_fallen_asleep will have to say about this:

DOUBLE REVERZE BRADLEY-WILDER STOCKHOLM SPOUSE SYNDROME! OMGZ! LOOK 4 MUH-KANE 2 CLOSE WITHIN MARGINZ OF ERA BY SUNDEE! ACORN!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

The plan is warmed over Bush policies. I only favor reducing the capital gains tax for new investment and limit the overall amount. I don't believe that we should be picking winners and losers in income by treating different sources of income differently. I favor eliminating all deductions and going to a flat rate. The biggest problem is that over 2/3 of the capital gains benefit goes to people earning over 1million bucks. Second, the health care proposals are awful and they've been trashed by the entire health care industry, except for some insurance companies. Moreover, those of us receiving excellent health care benefits from employers now would lose those or be taxed on them, and that sucks too. The McCain proposal on its face sucks, and I have too much work to do to provide further arguments against it.

____________________

political_junki:

ZOGBY was supposed to start a daily tracker for battle ground states from yesterday. Anybody knows what happened to it?

____________________

political_junki:

By the way, just in case :)
http://taxcut.barackobama.com/

____________________

bmrKY:

The bad poll numbers for the Hate Talk Express just keep on rolling in:

Survey USA
Washington (state)

Obama 56 (up 2)
McCain 40 (down 3)

____________________

common sense:

No Comment : Wow - I have the power to shut down a website. McCain is toast. One thing though. It amazes me how much you clucking hens converse during the day. Get a life- most of you are geeks and need to get a life.
Boom is the worst of all. He is a GOP plant from NC whose job is to promote the GOP position. Has he ever denied being paid by the GOP? - NO. You are all a bunch of suckers by responing to his obviously GOP postions. This website is comical. Boom is what keeps it going. Ignore him AND HE WILL GO AWAY.

____________________

political_junki:

I dont know why Survey USA polls dont get published as fast as others:
Here are some from today:
Washington : O 56 M 40
S. Carolina: O 41 M 55
New Mexico : O 52 M 45

____________________

Adam:

Washington state? Yawn.

Someone's gotta poll WV and IN again...

____________________

common sense:

I am amazed at how intelligent people are on this site. But most of you need to grow up. Yes Obama is going to win. Yes- Congress is going to be DEM. Palin will be relagated to the dustbin of history. You people are in need of a hobby. I think that most of you are a bunch of aholes in search of a life. Think I'm wrong ? Just wait until tomorrow when the new polls come out. I have news for you. Obama will be ahead. You will again begin your pissing match as usual. Answer me one question - What will you do after the election is over?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Holy CRAP! I get one ONE international flight for 8 hours and all of a sudden, Obama's rcp AVERAGE is at 8.2??

He's gonna be AVERAGING double digits pretty soon. In Trade has him at over 80%.

And this is a beauty to behold:

Ohio SurveyUSA Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 40 Obama +15
North Carolina PPP (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Missouri PPP (D) Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
National LA Times/Bloomberg Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 53, McCain 39 Obama +14
National LA Times/Bloomberg Obama 47, McCain 39, Nader 3, Barr 1 Obama +8
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 51, McCain 39, Nader 3, Barr 1 Obama +12
Colorado Suffolk Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 51, McCain 38 Obama +13
Michigan Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
Colorado Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Minnesota Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11
Wisconsin Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP Obama 54, McCain 37 Obama +17
National IBD/TIPP Tracking Obama 45, McCain 42 Obama +3

just wow. Makes me smile :D

____________________

Lechuguilla:

What irks me the most about S. Palin is her flippant attitude. She winks at us.

Are we to assume that she doesn't take the economic crisis seriously? Does she think that being VP is as easy as being a meddlesome mom at a PTA meeting who tries to tell other parents how to raise their kids?

She strikes me as a person whose super self confidence derives from her breathtaking ignorance. Just like W.

That she might be Vice President is a thought I find absolutely ... frightening!

Lech

____________________

illinoisindie:

@common sense
geeze take a chill pill... many posters on here are exceedingly intelligent and for the most part are able to statistically give relevance to the polling data but when all the polls say basically the same thing, I dont know how much more indepth analysis is needed. Especially where one candidate is waaaaaaaaaaay outside of the MOE. So at times the partisan banter back and forth is quite entertaining.

And boomshak happens to be our resident GOP mascot so please leave him/her alone and do not scare away

@ BMRKY
"DOUBLE REVERZE BRADLEY-WILDER STOCKHOLM SPOUSE SYNDROME! OMGZ! LOOK 4 MUH-KANE 2 CLOSE WITHIN MARGINZ OF ERA BY SUNDEE! ACORN!

Posted on October 15, 2008 12:16 AM "

Dude/Dudette you are MAD FUNNY!!!


____________________

DTM:

I suspect for most of the people posting here, politics IS a hobby. And is that really worse than building ships in bottles?

____________________

Observer:

I see that the double standards continue as usual:

Palin has scary Christian views because she goes to a Church with scary Christian views.

Obama doesn't have scary Christian views even though he went to a Church with scary Christian views.

(Neither of them advocate any such views of course)

Palin was inexperienced since she was 'just' a Mayor and a Governor.

John Edwards as a first term Senator and holder of no other public office was a suitable VP Candidate in 2004.

Palin is inexperienced in foreign policy and the fact that her state borders Canada and Russia is irrelevant.

Obama made a speech in Germany and was a small child in Indonesia so obviously knows all about Foreign Policy

On just about every blog on the internet and many pieces elsewhere Palin is routinely insulted every single day (see above for many examples).

But it is the McCain campaign that has gone negative by telling the truth about Obama's history with William Ayres.

Palin is extreme beause she does not belive in abortion.

But Obama favoured denying treatment to babies born alive in case it interferes with abortion rights.

I agree that Obama is not scary. We all know exactly what he will do if he is elected. On 5 November he will announce that he is running to be re-elected in 2012.

____________________



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