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US: Obama 48, McCain 43 (Hotline 10/20-22)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/20-22, 08; 769 LV 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 43

 

Comments
Kile Thomson:

Surge ?

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Same as yesterday. Ras - is the big number today. If Ras is even at 4% on Nov. 3rd, I can go to sleep at 9:30 and be happy.

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tar_heel:

This poll (setting aside its flaws) does not show an expanding Obama lead like many others; however, it's still bad news for McSame because 48-43 is better than 47-42. McSame would have to corral a vast majority of the undecideds...

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JCK:

Is BOOM now 0 for 3 on his predictions from yesterday?

The track record is amazing, if only for its consistency.

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boomshak:

THE WEATHERMEN JUST HARMLESS BOMBERS OF EMPTY BUILDINGS? HARDLY:

"The Weathermen (with William Ayers as their leader) planned to kill 25 million people in their "Re-education Camps". - FBI Informant

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJn5b8_weUY

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OneAngryDwarf:

@boomshak

When Obama was 8 years old...

Sad just sad. Is this your breaking new for today that was going to destroy the Obama campaign?

Epic, epic, flail flail flail...

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JCK:

Boomshak,

Good luck with your "Obama is a terrorist" campaign. It's worked so well up to this point, that I suggest you redouble your efforts.

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Commander_King:

Boom...how pathetic.

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boomshak:

William Ayers - Just a little Genocide...

http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/276377.php

I asked, "well what is going to happen to those people we can't reeducate, that are diehard capitalists?" and the reply was that they'd have to be eliminated.

And when I pursued this further, they estimated they would have to eliminate 25 million people in these reeducation centers.

And when I say "eliminate," I mean "kill."

Twenty-five million people.

I want you to imagine sitting in a room with 25 people, most of which have graduate degrees, from Columbia and other well-known educational centers, and hear them figuring out the logistics for the elimination of 25 million people.

And they were dead serious.

This was the testimony of FBI informant Larry Grathwohl in the 1982 documentary No Place to Hide.

The 25 people plotting the extermination of the 25 million Americans who would bitterly cling to the American way of life?

The Weather Underground, led by Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn.

--

Barack Obama had his 'coming out" party in William Ayers living room. He was hand-picked by William Ayers to run the Annenburg Project. He sat on two boards with William Ayers and shared office space with him for 3 years. He even wrote the forward for William Ayers book.

Can you imagine if there was evidence that John McCain was this close to Timothy McVeigh? Would the MSM be trying to excuse it and cover it up?

"Just a guy from my neighborhood?" I think not.

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politicalmomma2:

Dear Mr. Boomshak,
Would you also say that Walter Annenberg, a well-known conservative, on whose board Ayers served is a terrorist? What about his widow, who endorsed McCain? One has to tread lightly when playing the guilt by association game. Alas, the standard applied to one individual needs to be applied across the board.

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OneAngryDwarf:

My question is now, why does boomdork continue to post his drivel from Drudge here? No one listens, it isn't like he's going to change any minds at this point.

Just stupid trolling I suppose.

http://www.despair.com/victory.html

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boolean_radley:

Desperation can be a very, very ugly thing.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

You kep harping on ayers like it mattered.....or more precisely, because you are down to so FEW agruements!

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Dan:

hahaha. boom
the Ayers strategy is dead.
nobody is listening anymore.

were they ever, really?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Boomshak, can you run and get me a latte? Thanks.

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sunnymi:


I think the best we can do is ignore Boomshak when he post something like this. He knows it is senseless yet wants to fool himself into believing it will make a difference.

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JCK:

I strongly support Boom's effort to tie Ayers to Obama. I mean, it's such a winning strategy. Look how the polls have moved since McCain began harping on it.

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laguna_b:

I can't believe the numbers today....I mean I really don't believe then numbers today....I wish I could, but then even at half the lead it is a landslide. Next thing you know they will be talking Texas O+10

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Chester:

@ Boom:
Okay, even if Ayers is a legitimate issue, why do you still pursue it now that it has been PROVEN ineffective? Why not talk about what your candidate is talking about? The Terrorist talk cost McCain a lot of votes, whereas the Joe Plumber **** actually had a minimal amount of traction, which is why he's renaming the whole country "Joe." Why not talk about that... why are you still using talking points that your candidate has moved on from? Do you want him to lose?

(it's okay if you do... you can tell us)

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licinfl:

There's a law school saying that goes:

When the truth is against you call on the law, when the law is against you call on the truth...if they're both against you call the other guy names...

Boom has run out of polls to call on, so it is 'call the other guy names' time

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OneAngryDwarf:

Boomflounder

So how is the inside of the old trailor looking these days? Pretty trashed I'd bet. Maybe you should take a deep breath, maybe take an extra shift or two at the pizza place and try and get away from politics for a while.

Might do you some good.

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Boris_Dieter:

Having been part of the anti-war movement (as a cog, not important in any way), the Weathermen were ludicrous. Every "radical" group, including them was totally infiltrated by our security people, from the Black Panthers to the Weathermen. The only group that wasn't were the members of the Symbionese Liberation Army. They were all pathetic and stupid. All of that is ancient history and it's got nothing to do with Obama; it all has to do with the Palin/McCain slime campaign, which will go down in history as one of the dirtiest, most desperate and deluded efforts in political history.

The most disgusting thing about these GOP and conservative apologists for the muck being thrown around, is that they've convinced themselves that all the crap their digging for has merit or truth. The result is that they've combined the stench of their lies with the cosmically annoying sanctimony

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

and the reality is that Joe the Plumber is a flake who will never start his own business, operates now illegally, owes back taxes and would get a tax break under Obama....geez, he should be happy to pay a few bucks more taxes if he could make $250k/year! Not even here in California do plumbers make that!

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Boris_Dieter:

Yes, I know I have some misspelled and ill-used words. what can I say; I goof a a lot when I get pissed.

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carl29:


Shock poll: Obama and McCain tie among rural voters!!!!!!!!!

That's the GOP stronghold :-)!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49M5SF20081023

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political_junki:

@BOOM:
What the f*ck ?have you gone completely nuts?
How did we go back to Ayers again?

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Boris_Dieter:

Hey guys,

I'm off to call folks to early vote for Obama. Get involved; get off the blogosphere for a while. Leave the GOP and conservative dung fleas to plop and wallow around in the disgusting glop they enjoy so much. Get outta here and get folks to vote. Resist the Vote Suppression campaign by the right wing nutcakes.

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Trosen:

Obama has a few tricks up his sleeve for FL. Stay tuned..

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The_Huntsman:

To paraphrase Rumsfeld and Cheney, we've turned the corner and are now seeing the last throes of Boomshak the dead-ender.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

The reason Joe didn't work either was:

1. His name aint Joe
2. He aint a plumber - not a licensed one anyway and the plumbers union when they found out about him stealing work were PISSED
3. He makes $40K and would benefit significantly more under BO's plan than Sydney's and in fact admitted as much
4. the business he said he was going to buy is (a) not for sale AND (b) makes only $125K gross not net and would benefit more from BO's plan than Sydney's
5. He didn't even pay his existing taxes
6. Many believe he abused his wife based on reports that she spent time in a battered women's shelter and he was forced by the divorce court to pay for her time there.

Finally - most people over 30 most likely Sydney supporter's remember that he in fact railed against Bush's tax cut as Violating His Conscious.

We live in the digital information age, the internet cell phone video cameras, and You Tube make running from a lifetime in the public eye difficult.

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miatch:

Why don't they include Barr and Nader in these polls?

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GriffStep:

@boomshak-

Which Ayers book did Obama write a forward to? I can't find one.

I think I would still vote for Obama even if I found out that Ayers was his godfather. Even if I knew he would appoint Ayers secretary of education, I'd vote for him. I just don't believe that Ayers is bad guy anymore.

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crackbaldo:

After seeing the latest PA polls, I just cannot understand McCain's insistance on trying to turn PA red. He has 2 more campaign events in PA in the next few days and is spending a ton of money advertising here.(I'm in Pittsburgh.) This state is pretty much a lock for Obama. I guess McCain has to campaign somewhere, I just wish he'd have pulled out of PA like he did Michigan to save me the agony of watching those ****ty McLiar commercials.

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sunnymi:


A Must Read

A very interesting behind-the-scenes take on why single day state polls are showing McCain do better than in multi-day polls.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/longer-field-periods-and-round-numbers.html

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miatch:

@GriffStep

Werd. I'd vote Obama if it turned out he was Ayers gay lover. Really wouldn't impact my vote one bit.

Palin married a secessionist for god's sake.

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fed:

I am speechless. That means that suffulk Ohio poll could have been correct

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Nancy Pfotenhauer and Tucker Bounds are like the Iraqi spinmeister Comical Ali, the guy that would get on TV before the fall of Baghdad to proclaim that Iraq had won the mother of all battles. They'll come out and say something to the effect that these polls were conducted for the liberal media or that these states are significantly unimportant and unAmerican. They'll say that the pollsters aren't polling real Americans.

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Ryguy:

the hunstman... i wouldnt put up any mission accomplished signs yet. im sure that some time with in the next few days one poll will show this thing closer than it probably is. and on that day our friend boom will be flooding the boards.

pretty nice peace and quiet while you can get it though.

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boskop:

@boom

IBD/tipp shows a 3 point difference today. check it out.

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Dan:

To NYCRealAmerican,

You are misreading the whole Joe the Plumber story. First off his name is Joe, middle name that is. Secondly, you don't have to be licensed to be a plumber - that is a union rule. The more you try to rake him over the coals, the more popular he will get. Don't try to make him a victim here - it will backfire!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

OH is blue!!!

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jamesia:

For the last three days, Obama has captured his highest level of support in national polling. He's been leading in the polls since September 17th. For the last month, he's been leading by 4-9%. If everyone actually votes, McCain is finished.

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Trosen:

Interesting read sunny.. I'd say that's definitely a factor. But I still don't think that accounts for an out of the blue 14 point lead in OH.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Dan

Keep talking about "Joe the Plumber" and "Dan the Cop" or whoever and all your doing is proving Obama's point: none of these people make in excess of $250,000.

Not one "real American" that John McCain has been talking about is a small business owner making more than $250,000 that will be adversely affected by a tax increase.

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laguna_b:

@dan

It isn't "joe" that is the problem....it is McCain. He lacks judgement as witnessed by the choice of Palin. His vetting process is zero. Then he goes on to LIE about "Joe" and his taxes when clearly "Joe" will benefit from Obama.

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Dana Adini:

Boomshak.....you are one insane person....Please be here on November 4th

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carl29:

I suspect that McCain doesn't feel totally OK about Florida because he is here in a bus tour. Obviously the number among early voters in FL doesn't say that Republicans have the state in the bag. Out of the 470,849 who cast their ballots IN PERSON in the first 3 days of early voting in the state, 54% were Dem. and 30% Rep. That gives the democrats a 110,000+ advantage in early voting. In 3 days we are gaining ground on Republicans absentee ballots.

*Sen. Mel Martinez is around Miami in his McCain tour as well. You can see the desperation on his face: "Please we need you to go out and vote now" :-(

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Dan:

Shannon,

Actually, the people talking about "joe the plumber" are the dems who are trying to discredit him. What I am saying is the more you talk about, the more sympathy is generated for him. The media and bloggers are not doing Obama any favors here by continuously mentioning his name.

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deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

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[nemesis]:

At this point, the pollster map is showing enough SOLID blue states for 268 electoral votes. All Obama has to do at this point is hold on to them, an add NH to the mix, which he's already leading by approximately 6 points. At this point, losing NH along with all other leaning and toss-up states is Obama's only path to defeat. Does not seem very likely.

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laguna_b:

@carl29

The real story here is inverse voter suppression by the news. People are SO fed up with the past 8 years and the grandpa and bimbo show that they can't wait 2 weeks to vote! Every Repug vote that waits is a vote for grabs or just gives up. This has to be good for 2-3 additional points for Obama.

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DT4OBAMA:

Some Pundits believe that if there is any BRADLEY effect it will be in PA, thoughts?

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zotz:

The scary question is are the so-called "real Americans" going to just hand over power to a "socialist" merely because of a lost election? They have already shown that don't believe in the constitution. They think that killing millions of people is fine whether they are Vietnamese or Iraqis because it is our job to protect the good asians from the bad asians.

Are the Reps going to allow all this goodness to be destoyed simply because of a misguided electorate? The "real Americans" will not simply lie down because of a lost election. We have to prepare ourselves for Timothy McVey type violence.

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KipTin:

Hey...politicalmomma2.... if you are going to defend Obama's association with Ayers at least get your facts straight. As in

1. The board that Ayers and Obama served together was "Woods."
2. The board that Obama served on where Ayers was the FOUNDER was the Chicago Annenberg Challenge... recipient of an educational "challenge" grant from the Annenberg Foundation. Neither of the Annenbergs (dead or alive) associated with Ayers.

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jonny87:

@carl29

any ideas why obamas dropped a little in florida whilst his national numbers appear to be holding up?

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The_Huntsman:

I agree, leave Joe the Plumber alone. Obama's tax plan would benefit him and make it more likely for him to be able to achieve his goal of owning a plumbing business, but if he wants to vote against his own interests that is his prerogative.

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KipTin:

Uh... zotz... you sound like you are the one who has a close association with Ayers.

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laguna_b:

@jonny87

"any ideas why obamas dropped a little in florida whilst his national numbers appear to be holding up?"

No one was home when they called...they were all in long poll lines to vote Obama ;)

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Dan:

To all those who think this election is over, I want to add this tidbit. On October 22, 1980, Gallup had Carter leading Reagen by 3%. We all know what happened, Reagen won in a landslide (10%). The only pollster to show a large Reagen lead prior to the election was the done by Richard Wirthlin, the internal pollster for the Reagen campaign. Carter's pollster, Caddell, uncovered a large Reagen lead, but not until the eve of the election. Polling is expensive, and the campaigns have a lot more money to play with. If one candidate is spending a lot of time and money in a particular area, you better believe they have good reasons. The McCain/Palin campaign is headed to FL, PA, CO, MO, CO (again), NM, IA, NM (again), IA (again), OH, VA, PA (again), and NC. Better watch these states.

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

@boom

Like Obama says "because they've run out of ideas". You sir, have run out of ideas. You're going to retread Ayers for what the fourth, fifth time. It didn't stick, it won't stick, and you look like an idiot every time you bring it up.

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jonny87:

@laguna_b

haha, makes sense!

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wakeup:

There will not be a Bradley effect... but there will be an Ayers effect.

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Trosen:

Dan.. polling's come a long way since 1980.

zotz.. you sound a little paranoid.. relax. If there were that many loonies who bought into this junk, we'd see a closer race.

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boskop:

to date the economic meltdown has worked in obama the cheater's advantage.

but consider this: as more lose the value of their 401k's they will not feel kindly toward spreading their wealth whether they fall into whichever bracket obama feels like designating this month to garner more votes.

it's a general tone that has the ability to go belly up on him.

i would suggest you lick your chops that 8 years ago bush stole the election and now the chickens have come home to roost as your man prepares second, third and fourth time to steal his. i guess you want a win at any price. god love this democracy...what hath we wrought?

he always does, win on technicalities and vote mongering you know. oh that pretty white toothed smile his pr people told him to shine like a beacon because advertising has long known that people flock to grins.

his comment about dancing? i'd like to see him dance with most of the bones broken in his body.

fine guy. a snake in a blue tie. you gotta love a gorgeous crook.

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RussTC3:

Here we are so far today.

Today's Daily National Tracking Poll Average

Four polls: Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen and Hotline, 10/23 (10/22 in paranthesis)
Obama 50.8 (50.2)
McCain 42.3 (42.5)
Obama +0.6, McCain -0.2 = 0.8 point Obama swing

Obama +8.5 (+7.7)

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Trosen:

Wow.. attack of the trolls! We got.. Ayers, socialism, and polling from 28 years ago. At least the last one is a little original. Come on trolls, what else you got? The old song and dance is getting tiresome.

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KipTin:

I can see from the discussion here that Obamanation does not have a clue about "small business." When talking about job-creation, it is in fact the small businesses making over $250K that are the job generators.

Here is an informative article:
"Small Business Not Safe From Obama Tax"
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=309565448930564

Since the mid-1990s, the small business sector has created 78.9% of the net new jobs in the United States, reports the Office of Advocacy at the Small Business Administration. Sen. Obama is claiming his proposed tax hike on incomes over $250,000 will hardly stifle job creation in this key job-producing sector because "98% of small businesses make less than $250,000."

Obama gets to his reassuring 98% figure by lumping firms with NO employees, the majority of small businesses, with small businesses that have 50 or 100 employees. Census data show that 79% of all American companies, counting both large and small firms, have no employees.

Similarly, the SBA's Office of Advocacy reports that 52% of small businesses in the U.S. economy are home-based — that is, not exactly the heavy-hitters when it comes to job creation.

Obama is telling the 59 million employees in the small-business sector there's almost no chance, specifically a 2% chance, that their jobs or incomes will be negatively affected by his proposed tax hikes and policies to "spread the wealth around." In FACT, Obama's proposed tax hike on incomes over $250,000 is precisely aimed at the small businesses that are generating the highest revenues and hiring the most workers.

"Two-thirds of small business profits are earned in households making more than $250,000 per year," reports Americans for Tax Reform. "In 2006, $473 billion of the $706 billion of small business profits was earned in households Obama has said he would raise taxes on."

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carl29:

jonny87,

McCain and Palin have campaigned quite a lot in the state, and McCain is now investing money as well. All that has to help them make up ground. Nonetheless, I think that it is pretty close in the state and you can see it in the faces of the Republicans in the state, at least the Cuban politicians here in Miami. They don't like what they are looking at the polling places.

*Remember that this is a Republican state with Rep. Governor and legislature. So, the machinery here is on McCain's favor.

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fed:

PPIC O +23 in California. Second poll showing Obama with a 20+ lead. This is huge for Obama´s popular vote nation wide

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MNLatteLiberal:

A note to all about boomshak: this is a fake boomshak in this thread.

Notice the spelling: "boomshak". The REAL boomshak spells his name thus: "boomshak". See the difference?


(sorry, couldn't resist)

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Dan:

Trosen,

Yes, polling has come a long way. Each pollster is now trying to "guess" the makeup of the electorate, and adjust their polls accordingly. In 2004, the exit pollsters adjusted their polls for this predicted electorate, and projected Kerry the winner!

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AB:

From www.sboe.state.nc.us (NC state board of elections)
6,196,102 registered voters
2,827,141 dems (45.63%)
1,986,920 repubs (32.07%)
1,378,985 ind (22.26%)

As of 7:30 am 10/23/08:
676,868 one-stop voters (voted early at polls)
405,858 dems (59.96%)
159,003 repubs (23.49%)
total black or african american vote 215,083 (31.77%)
single largest demographic Female AA dems 120,112

also 86,037 civilian voters (absentee ballots - 46,000+ white repubs); 3991 military voters; and 1865 overseas voters.

Also from sboe (in NC):
in 2004 dem turnout was 65%, rebub turnout 69%, Total turnout 64% (includes independents and libertarians)
AA turnout 59% white turnout 66%
Bush 1,961,166 Kerry 1,525,849

I think there is an enthusiasm gap

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boskop:

@boom
dont waste you time with IBD. they cannot comprehend honest non partisan stats. i read the piece this morning.

they dont have to, all they need to see is the exodus of these actual job creators fleeing the great cheater's ranks.

sit tight...
it's just gonna get uglier before we figure out how to run a clean election.

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The Dude:

@shannon dallas: Agree with you about the "Comical Ali" comparison but I gotta say at least Pfotenhauer is pleasant to look at. Damn, that Tucker Bounds with his perfectly rectangular head is one weird looking cat. And don't even get me started with that girly man, whiny voice of his.

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mac7396:

These polls are dumb. The only credible poll is the AP/GFK. This site should only post that poll.

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mac7396:

These polls are dumb. The only credible poll is the AP/GFK. This site should only post that poll.

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miatch:

Boskop:

You want to see Obama with "most of the bones broken in his body" ? How exactly is that an intelligent and civil comment?

How can we ban those who encourage violence on any candidate around here?

It's just sickening.

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kerrchdavis:

These were boomshaks predictions from yesterday.

Rasmussen: O+5 FAIL
Gallup: O+3 (LV's)
IBD/TIPP: O+2 FAIL
GWU/Battleground: O+1 FAIL
Hotline: O+3 FAIL

"By end of day tomorrow, there will be at least 3 tracking polls within the MOE of 3"

So far, Boomshak is, once again, on track to be WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING.

HOW CAN ONE PERSON BE WRONG ABOUT EVERY SINGLE THING?

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kerrchdavis:

@miatch

just ignore boskop. Shes a pathetic old hack.

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boskop:

@miatch the great idiot

obama danced, smiled and said he dances better than mccain.

to which i reply how could mccain dance with most of the bones broken in his body.

settle down your great duncedom.

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wakeup:

Tax eaters rely on Mama Obama. Watch how fat, lazy, and spoiled they get.

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Boris_Dieter:

Taking a phone call break; Kiptin and all you other right wing nuts. Any small business that permits itself to be taxed at the statutory rates ought to fire its accountant. Having run several myself and being the son of a small business owner, the tax code permits small business owners to deduct expenses with abandon. Gas, auto maintenance, entertainment, and on and on. There are taxes, of course, but the actual level of business taxes for small and big business is grossly exaggerated. It's more propaganda by the right, such as their suggestion that 40% of Americans don't "pay taxes."

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southern angler:

KipTin,
Careful you don’t want to confuse the Obamanation with facts. They are more suited to fantasies like trickle down economics (Fail), world appeasement (Surrender), and racial equality (Yeah Right).

____________________

Thatcher:

@Dan -

re: Carter and Reagan polls and final outcome.

To paraphrase Sen Bentsen:

"Sir, John 'McNasty' is no 'Dutch' Reagan"

Even I, an ultra-liberal who has a lot of negative critique about Reagan thinks that "Dutch" was the president our country needed in 1980. His inspiration, personability, charisma and stature is why the people voted him in - not necessarily his policies. We needed a strong, calm, charismatic leader to get us through tough times.

Sound familiar? It's not McCain.

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BridgeportJoe:

If one candidate is spending a lot of time and money in a particular area, you better believe they have good reasons.

The good reason that McCain/Palin is spending so much time in NM, IA, PA and CO is that if they let on that these states are irretrievably lost, Republican voters would realize the utter futility this year and stay home in droves -- which would mean 62 or so Democratic senators and a proportionate number of Congressmen.

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zotz:

In order to justify violence it is necessary to demonize the enemy. If Obama is a terrorist sympathizer maybe something should be done. That is the subliminal suggestion they are making.

Kiptin, boomshak and others of their ilk are sowing seeds of hatred that will bear fruit.
These are the foundations for the right wing backlash.

____________________

BrookLynda:

One of the most idiotic things I've heard come from McPlanecrash's lips is when he tried to make the case that Obama was unfairly attacking Joe the Plumber. He said

"Now, Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house, and he didn't ask to be famous. He certainly didn't ask for the political attacks on him from the Obama campaign."

Duh. Who was it that made Joe the Plumber famous?

Duh. What a maroon. What an ignoramus.

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sunnymi:

@Trosen, you said " But I still don't think that accounts for an out of the blue 14 point lead in OH."

14 points may be at the high end but if you notice 3 polls within the last 2 weeks - Suffolk, Big Ten and Quinnipiac have shown big leads for Obama in Ohio (Now PPP is suggesting they have a similar number); 3 polls (CNN/Time; Insider Advantage and SUSA) have shown about 5 point leads.

Rasmussen is a single day poll and M-D is a 2 day poll. All the ones showing moderate to large Obama leads are 3-4 day polls.

That makes Rasmussen and Mason Dixon more likely to be the outliers in the state.

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DT4OBAMA:

i felt better with the Quiinpiac polls today with regard to PA, the rumors that it was in low single digits was messing with my head

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kerrchdavis:

The state polls today have been ridiculously good. While I refuse to necessarily believe Obama has 10-12 point leads in some of these states, I also refuse to believe that these polls are off more than 10 points.

In other words, we're winning, and it's trending our way.

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Flashlight:

I'm getting greedy. I should just enjoy a little schedenfreud on November 5th, when Republicans are feeling their loss.

Instead, I have to come here and watch the likes of boomshak, kiptin, boksop and the others eat crap every day for months, hear he sweet music of them whining about the media, smile as their predictions fail again and again, snicker as they flail desperately at Ayers, Wright, Joe the Plumber, "socialism," ANYthing! But all in vain... day after day, week after week, month after month of their exquisite pain.

This site is turning me into a sadist.

____________________

DT4OBAMA:

@kerrchdavis

Amen to that!!!

____________________

boskop:

@kercchdavis

you still cannot address ideas only
bully like your great leader.

you are disgusting, repugnant, ignorant and
the worst in human detritus.
now, what were you saying, dearie???

____________________

Thatcher:

@southern angler -

You really don't know anything about politics and policy do you?

"trickle down economics (Fail)"

Yes, we ultra liberals agree with you - trickle down economics is a failure. That is the exact policy of Ronald Reagan, G.H.W Bush, G.W. Bush and John McCain!!!!!!

You just blasted your party's own economic platform!!!!!! The idea that you give tax breaks to the companies and rich, by doing so - they'll spend the money and all that wealth will trickle down to all the Joe the Plumbers in America. What ACTUALLY happens is - the rich reinvest their tax savings into interest bearing options (SAVE their money through investments) while all the Joe the Plumbers get the pipe.

____________________

sunnymi:

@DT4OBAMA, you said "i felt better with the Quiinpiac polls today with regard to PA, the rumors that it was in low single digits was messing with my head"

Rest easy regarding PA....I am pretty confident that was a rumor put out there with a purpose and it is just a rumor....Not one poll out of the state in 3-weeks has shown the race even get to single digits. There is even a daily tracker for PA and that has not gone lower than O+10 in 3 weeks.

____________________

BrookLynda:

@sunnymi:

That's right, re: OH outlier polls. I would just add that in addition to Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon, the only other polls showing a slight Macca lead lately are Zogby internet. In other words, the three outliers are either known to favor GOP or use suspect methods, or both.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Flashlight

It seems we are getting the short end of the stick. While we have become sadists, this site has turned the boskops, kiptins and boomshaks of the world into famous comedians.

____________________

DTM:

@sunnymi

Thanks! Very informative and interesting.

On the 1980 parallel:

This has been rehashed many times, but to summarize, Reagan and Carter were more or less even in the polls before their one and only debate on 10/28, one week before the election. That debate is likely the single biggest inflection point in Presidential election history. About 100 million people watched it (at the time, the entire U.S. population was about 225 million). The consensus analysis is that Carter went into the debate hoping to expose Reagan's supposed lack of understanding of foreign and national policy matters, and Reagan not only held his own on substance, but also came across as far more likeable. As a result, an electorate in the mood for change was reassured that Reagan would be a competent and likeable President, and he enjoyed the mass shift in support that created a landslide election.

The most obvious point to make today is that there is no such event on the remaining schedule (although of course there is always the possibility of some unexpected event). A slightly less obvious point to make is that we may already have had such an event, but in Obama's favor, with his response to the economic crisis and conduct in the debates serving the same function of reassuring voters he will be a competent and likeable President.

____________________

AB:

@kerrchdavis,
you can try to dope out the polls or you can see who is actually voting. I recommend the NC state board of elections website.

@boomshak & boskop
scroll back a little bit and look at the early voting stats for NC. You might reconsider NC as going for McCain.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow the trolls are in full fledge DESPERATION TODAY! LOVE IT!

____________________

DT4OBAMA:

@sunnymi

Very true, however i live in Cleveland and we are famous for our sports teams grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory. That explains my cautious optimism. Probably wont be secure til the clock hits zero. 12 more days.

____________________

boomshak:

A TALE OF TWO SUSPENSIONS:

McCain suspends his campaign to save the American Economy and it is an erratic, political stunt.

Obama suspends his campaign to visit his sick granny and it shows compassion and sacrifice.

I may vomit.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boskop

"now, what were you saying, dearie???"

hmm, good question, where was I? Oh, right, I was about to point out what a fat hypocrite you are, deaRIE.

"his comment about dancing? i'd like to see him dance with most of the bones broken in his body.

fine guy. a snake in a blue tie. you gotta love a gorgeous crook. "

Yes, you clearly are all about "issues" boskop. What a classy lady you are.

"you still cannot address ideas only
bully like your great leader."

This sounds a lot like McCain's entire campaign strategy.

So, we can call each other names all day long. You can come on here and spew your bull**** all day, diarrhea free flowing from your mouth. It's all crap. No one here buys anything you say because you, like boomshak, have no credibility.

____________________

DecaturMark:

The trolls are just going through their stages of grief:

Denial (this isn't happening to me!)
Anger (why is this happening to me?)
Bargaining (I promise I'll be a better person if...)
Depression (I don't care anymore)
Acceptance (I'm ready for whatever comes)

They will all come to accept it eventually.

(I think Boom has gone though these stages 3 or 4 times now in the last 2 weeks)

____________________

mysticlaker:

boom - you ass.

Obama is not suspending his campaign. He is taking a time of campaigning. His choice. Some would say his risk.

A suspension of campaign means you don't advertise, you don't have surrogates out, etc. It's what McAss said he would do, but didn't. Instead he McFlopped.

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak -

Obama never stated his campaign was suspended ... those were the "liberal MSM" words. He said he was leaving the campaign trail to visit his sick grandmother - everyone is still campaigning.

While McCain SAID he was going to suspend his campaign to address the economy and NEVER DID. It was a political stunt.

One shows honesty and compassion - the other shows political trickery and deceit.

____________________

wakeup:

Is this the same Grandmother that Obama exposed as a racist?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boskop

think about it missy...when was the last time someone on here went "ah, good point boskop. I never thought of that" or "well said."

Most people just scroll right over what you have to say coz they know its crap. It's actually a little nutty usually too, not real down to earth stuff.

So congratulations boskop, the spewer of nutty crap. Keep up the good work honey!

____________________

RussTC3:

Have you folks even READ Obama's books? Do yourself and check them out sometime, I think you'll be surprised at how forthcoming he is with a lot of his life.

____________________

KipTin:

Hey... Boris_Dieter... One cannot expense all profits if a business is financially successful... I know from my own experience. And did you employ a larger number of people? Also how about some factual source to refute my fact-based source? Did you even read the article?

P.S. I am not "right-wing" anything. Obamanation is always making false assumptions.

-------

I agree with boskop on Obama's dancing comment, which I thought was lame and totally insensitive. McCain broke his right leg near his knee when shot down in Vietnam.
---------

Mark Blumenthal is on CNN at this very moment.

____________________

boskop:

@boom
it is so engineered and scripted. like he ever thought about the ole white wind bag three years running before he needed to "use' her to strike the essential compassion note.

i bet if his polls start to tank tonight granny will have to see her boy on tv instead.

obama is trying his darndest to not be 'cold'.
even the folks we know who he lives with say he's weirdly frigid and calculating. i could also call that ambivalent, cautious and just plain old confused.

as president, he'll have to have out of the cloakroom and come down on one side or another of an issue. he'll have to do a hell of a better job reading 'the man' he's playing poker with than he's been able to do with ayers and alinsky and wright and pelosi.

the chicago folks we know from 'the hood' say they have never seen anything remotely compassionate or warm about him. though they like michelle better and say she's actually normal. a human being.

i could care less about her.. she'll dump him one day anyway.

____________________

southern angler:


Reality Check
Rich people and cooperation’s run and rule this country, not Obama. Obama is just a silly little man making empty promises to desperate little people in exchange for their votes. He will also be history in just a few short years, like all other presidents.

Neither Obama nor the US Government make jobs or create capital in any real way. Government jobs are actual liabilities to tax payers, meaning they create zero wealth.

That being said, where does our nation’s wealth comes from? Rich people. The rich are not only good at making money but are also very good at protecting their money. When Obama strikes out against the rich, in the form of higher taxes, the rich will strike back at all of us in the form of higher prices for everything including higher interest rates and massive lay offs. We will all be the victims of Obama economics blunders. Obama’s plan to redistribute the wealth is an old failed liberal tactic that has never proven to be anything less than disastrous.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "I may vomit."

I guess that may be all you will have left....

____________________

truebljb1:

What are the ibd/tipp poll numbers today. I doesn't look to me like they are out.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@wakeup/boom

I have no patience fools today. May you ignorance be freed one day.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I guess I would be particularly bitchy today if I was a McCain fan and has seen the new state polling.

I'll try to be nice to you guys for the rest of the day. You're obviously hurting.

____________________

southern angler:

Im sorry I meant to say tickle up economics

____________________

Mister H:

From Boomshack:
A TALE OF TWO SUSPENSIONS:

McCain suspends his campaign to save the American Economy and it is an erratic, political stunt.

Obama suspends his campaign to visit his sick granny and it shows compassion and sacrifice.

I may vomit.


LOL...What was so "compassionate" about McCain supposedly suspending his campaign? Also, Obama is NOT suspending his campaign. Biden, Michelle Obama, the Clintons, etc. are still on the trail, ads are still being run, the ground-game is still in full-swing, etc.

Obama simply said that he is leaving the trail for two days to visit the woman who basically raised him.

Why is that so offensive?

What got McCain in trouble is two-fold:

1) He didn't actually suspend his campaign, like he said he was doing (ads were running, surrogates were campaigning, etc.)

2) He got to Washington 24-hours after his announcment....and a deal was already close to being brokered. He did NOTHING to help, according to many independent sources.

____________________

Thatcher:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cc-goldwater/why-mccain-has-lost-our-v_b_137150.html

WHY MCCAIN HAS LOST OUR VOTE
By CC Goldwater

"Being Barry Goldwater's granddaughter and living in Arizona, one would assume that I would be voting for our state's senator, John McCain. I am still struck by certain 'dyed in the wool' Republicans who are on the fence this election, as it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting the Republican presidential candidates this year. ... We reject the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.

... After the last eight years, there's a lot of clean up do. Roll up your sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up with you."

____________________

KipTin:

Has Obamanation even READ any of McCain's books? You will find out he is a heck of a good writer. Start with his 1999 bestseller "Faith of My Fathers." So much better than either of Obama's books and NOT self-serving.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Dow up 7 points. Watch out for the McCain surge.

____________________

Incumbent:

@boom, wakeup and boskop

Hey, this "sick grandma bashing" idea may have legs! You should email the McCain campaign and have them try it out as their next tactic to turn this thing around. I'm sure it would play REAL well with all the senior citizen voters in Florida that McCain desperately needs...

____________________

RussTC3:

Haven't read McCain's latest book yet. Went to check it out at the local library but it was not in yet.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler President Obama is on CNN right now. God he's so full of hope and love for this Country. I'm so proud.

____________________

wakeup:

Incumbent,
Did Obama "bash" his grandma during his race speech?

____________________

southern angler:

Obama failed to visit his mother when she was dying with cancer or visit his poor brother living in a hut. Do you guys think he gives two monkey nuts about us?

____________________

symblized:

PPP says expect Suffolk-like numbers for Ohio in a weekend release. Suffolk had Obama +9 earlier this week:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/longer-field-periods-and-round-numbers.html

____________________

Thatcher:

@wakeup -

No, Obama did NOT bash his grandmother during his speech on race.

Go read the quote again, this time with an open mind.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

God I just had to take a step back. THE DEM IS ****ING CAMPAIGNING IN I N D I A N A with 12 days or less to go! LOL WOW!

____________________

d3nnisbest:

Boomtard,

You've convinced I'm definitely not voting for Bill Ayers.

(I'm going to vote for Obama instead.)

But thanks for the info. If I see "Ayers" on my ballot. I'm voting for the other candidate.

____________________

boskop:

@kerch
you are constitutionally unable to follow through on this. and i mean that as a pun as well.

what your tiny mind fails to comprehend is the down the road scenario.

obama may be president - but he will give us rather fast three wars, ear marks worse than a pig's on its way to the slaughterhouse, and sleaze baby SLEAZE.

so, i am not upset. in fact, if he wins, he will take himself down faster than a jumping a crane in lower manhattan.

enjoy~~~

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@KipTin

NEWSFLASH: The McCain in 1999 is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the McCain today. I would have proudly supported him back then and I don't doubt what he wrote was brilliant and beautiful. He WAS an awesome politician.

But this is no longer the same guy. Have you seen the new videos out showing that he, in fact, supported higher taxes on the wealthy back then and voted against tax cuts year after year after year?

The man completely changed himself to run for office, thinking he would have no chance without the republican base. He changed his policies for political gain and I will listen to any argument you have that refutes that.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@kip tin

We employed 15 people; it was a bakery and subsequently restaurants. My point is simple, small and large businesses generally pay much less than the statutory rate. And there is a bibliography that could fill as small building that discusses the differences between posted tax rates and the actual tax incidence. Moreover, as a percent of income, the average tax burden in the U.S., including payroll taxes paid by workers, indicates that the highest burden is paid by those in the lower half of the income distribution. Discussions that focus on absolute amounts have nothing to do with burdens. I don't have time to provide you with references for things that are well established facts. If you want to refute them, please go find the sources on the distribution of tax burdens, relative to income.

Smooch and so long.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boskop that was a really desperate post.

____________________

wakeup:

Portland,
Hypnotists know that it takes a certain type of mind to hypnotize... I picture you on stage at a comedy club quacking like a duck.

____________________

sunnymi:


KipTin, you said "Has Obamanation even READ any of McCain's books? You will find out he is a heck of a good writer. Start with his 1999 bestseller "Faith of My Fathers." So much better than either of Obama's books and NOT self-serving."

How would we know if he did not write the book all by himself! Mark Salter wrote it with him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faith_of_My_Fathers

____________________

KipTin:

Actually, I was wondering why Obama had not visited his grandmother for 14 months before he finally visited her in August. Also wondered why when she was recently hospitalized that he did not visit her the. Apparently, they sent her home to die, probably with a morphine drip for her pain.

-------

The real political stunt was Obama having his so-called high level economic governor's roundtable this week in Florida. This is much worse than McCain going back to D.C. where he is still a member of the Senate. Notably, only Democratic governors who endorsed Obama were invited. What? No invite for Governor Crist for a governor's meeting held in his own state? I think this is comparable to Obama's customized "presidential seal" as well as those fake columns at his convention acceptance speech.

P.S. Those fake columns cost much much more than Palin's wardrobe.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

wakeup say it with me. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA. Once again, PRESIDENT Barack Obama. The world is going to be thrilled. FINALLY, not since Clinton, the US with an intelligent, thoughtful leader.

____________________

Trosen:

I heard that Obama's grandmother one had tea with William Ayers. Spread the word.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boskop

you are entitled to your opinion, as baseless as it may be.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin say it with me PRESIDENT OBAMA!

____________________

boskop:

@kerch
do you work?

from the looks of it you dont.

figured.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Trolls rejoice! No more Bush. Hell.. you guys even denounce him now! LOL How pathetic. You can't even defend the idiot you elected.

Say it all..CHORUS PRESIDENT OBAMA!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@kiptin

I watched the governor's roundtable in Florida and it was fascinating, particularly the colorado governor. Your characterization rings false, since you are too intelligent to believe what you wrote. You're a good debator, but throwing out a debating tactic doesn't make it true. That was a terrific and informative forum. It is something that McCain's ego and prejudices couldn't possibly permit.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Trolls explode. They are scared ****less.

____________________

DTM:

Two points:

(1) On the "suspension" issue:

In addition to Obama not actually suspending his campaign, to make it analogous he would also have to:

(a) Call on John McCain to suspend his campaign as well and join Obama in Hawaii, cancelling a debate in the process (that last would be a trick); and

(b) Once Obama got to Hawaii, he would have to interfere with the doctors providing his grandmother with medical care, thereby putting her at substantially greater risk.

(2) The books under John McCain's name were actually ghostwritten by Mark Salter. Of course it is not at all unusual for prominent politicians to use ghostwriters. What is indeed unusual is for someone like Obama to write popular books himself (of course, his first book was written long before he was a prominent politician).

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Trosen

I heard Obama and Ayers were both on the internet at the same time the other day.

I hope McCain doesn't find out...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Trolls should be scared. POLL #3 in OH will come out from PP showing Obama close to a 10 point lead in OH. 3 shockers IN A ROW. WOW.

____________________

d3nnisbest:

"obama may be president - but he will give us rather fast three wars, ear marks worse than a pig's on its way to the slaughterhouse, and sleaze baby SLEAZE."


Oooooooh. Earmarks. Oh no! Save us!

Right there. There's your answer to why the republicans are losing. No one but pasty white mildly mentally-retarded goons give a flying fig about earmarks. Really.

____________________

wakeup:

Portland,
The world will be thrilled... Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey, North Korea, Mexico...

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boskop

I actually own and run a small business in California. But you can make any assumptions you want.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boskop liberals know how to "multitask." Hell we run the freaking world already with companies like Microsoft, Boeing, Intel, in our states.

____________________

Chester:

TEXAS: Ras has it at +10% Mac, so if O keeps rising it could be about +6% Mac by Nov. 4. With the growth of the Dallas suburbs, if O has a strong first term, than I expect that Texas (yes, Texas) will be a battleground in 2012. If he can turn those 34 EVs blue, than the Republicans party will be obsolete, and they will have to completely rebrand themselves for 2016 or face anniliation.

____________________

boomshak:

OHIO SoS HAS LOST HER MIND!

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/23/no_challenge.ART_ART_10-23-08_B1_E3BM90B.html?sid=101

Brunner disallows mismatch challenges
Directive to counties' elections officials comes after victories in court

Thursday, October 23, 2008 3:27 AM

By Mark Niquette

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Elections officials cannot challenge voters on Election Day or reject absentee ballots based solely on discrepancies from verifying new voter registrations, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said yesterday in directives to counties.

It's the latest development from the controversy about what should be done when personal information from new voters doesn't match state motor vehicle or federal Social Security records in an automatic computer check.

The Ohio Republican Party had sued Brunner to force her to provide lists of voters with mismatches to counties as a way to correct registration errors and weed out any fraud.

Although the GOP did not prevail in court, Brunner issued the directives because counties have access to mismatches by examining individual voter records.

Ohio law no longer allows challengers at the polls, but poll workers have the power to question a voter's eligibility. One of Brunner's directives says voters may not be challenged based solely on mismatch data.

The other directive says county elections workers cannot uses mismatches as the basis for not counting an absentee ballot.

An estimated 200,000 of the nearly 786,000 new registrations in Ohio this year have mismatches, Brunner's office has said.

But Brunner argues that federal law does not allow mismatches alone to be used to disqualify voters and that most discrepancies are the result of typos or other simple errors.

For example, a mismatch would be flagged if someone entered a full name on a driver's license and a shortened name or nickname on a voter registration.

Brunner also said the matching system isn't working properly. Ohioans must provide either their driver's license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number when they register, and that is then checked against the databases. But even if voters use a driver's license and it matches records at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, she said, the computer still tries to match Social Security records, returning a mismatch because the voter did not use that number.

Still, Ohio GOP Deputy Chairman Kevin DeWine said that Brunner has not given county elections officials access to the mismatches in a way they could realistically use to determine the reason for any discrepancy.

"At this point, she's telling elections officials what to do with information she hasn't even provided them," DeWine said. "Until she releases the 200,000 questionable registrations on file in her office, this directive is worthless."

Lawyers for the Ohio GOP met yesterday with Attorney General Nancy H. Rogers, representing Brunner, seeking a solution to the dispute out of court. But Brunner made it clear the meeting was not to negotiate.

Meanwhile, the Franklin County Board of Elections said it needs more information before investigating the voter registrations of John McCain staff members who signed up to vote in Ohio. But the head of the group making the complaint, ProgressOhio.org, is now threatening to take the matter to the state and U.S. attorney general. At issue is whether out-of-state workers and volunteers meet state residency requirements to be eligible to vote.


HOORAY, VOTER FRAUD IS NOW LEGAL IN OHIO. WELCOME TO DEMOCRAT CONTROL. HOPE YOU ENJOY IT.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

"The world will be thrilled... Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey, North Korea, Mexico..."

You make a good point. The only section of the world that will be rejoicing if McCain is elected is in the hills of Afghanistan.

____________________

wakeup:

"Grandma, Have you seen my birth certificate?"

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I'm a small business owner as well. The richest man in the WORLD now, Warren, is a DEM. It's shocking to me how people can continue to talk about trickle down, Republican tax policy without laughing. LOOK WHAT IT's DONE. God ths is so funny. Intelligence is lacking in the GOP.

____________________

Trosen:

wakeup:
"Portland,
The world will be thrilled... Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey, North Korea, Mexico..."

It seem Al Qaeda will be disappointed though.

____________________

sunnymi:


"Elections officials cannot challenge voters on Election Day or reject absentee ballots based solely on discrepancies from verifying new voter registrations, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said yesterday in directives to counties."

This is in line with what the Supreme court said....anything new?

____________________

zoot:

Boskop - I must say, there are some dim-witted posts here from both sides, but in terms of sheer bile and unreasoned nastiness, you and Rastus are cutting edge. I've been reading these threads for a while now, and cannot recall anything remotely rational from you. Have you considered counseling?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Trosen YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! Can you stick your fear mongering up your ass dude? Seriously, intelligence around the country is making a come back. The only terrorist attack in US HISTORY on our soil occured under A REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak you should stay off your right wing talking points for a while. No one in their right mind believes MICKEY MOUSE will be able to show up in OH and vote. You really should check your intelligence, I know they have tests available. ACORN paid staffers to collect signatures. Some staffers took advantage of this 'cause they were lazy. To think that DONALD DUCK will show up at a poll and VOTE shows the smallness of your intellectual thought process. ****ING IDIOT.

____________________

Thatcher:

@PortlandRocks -

"The only terrorist attack in US HISTORY on our soil occured under A REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION."

Amen, Brutha ...

It is totally ridiculous to me that people feel the Republican politicians will keep us safer. It's like "Hey - we f#$ked up big time, once. But you can trust us now."

____________________

wakeup:

Iranian Parliament endorses Obama...
Putin registers with ACORN to vote in Ohio...
Dems accuse those receiving SS of being Socialist...
Ayers can't stop laughing...

____________________

mac7396:

The new AP poll is out:
McCain 88%
Barr 4%
Nader 3%
H. Clinton 2%
B. Clinton 2%
Obama 1%

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@ALL YOU GOP AND CONSERVATIVE PUTZES:

Please cite the actual cases brought by prosecutors in which voting fraud has been brought to trial. Any voting fraud will do, GOP or Democrat. The moaning about voting fraud (actually registration fraud) is all about voter suppression and delegitimizing Democratic victories. There are virtually NO cases of documented instances of people defrauding at the polls. And please notice that this is so even in states where the GOP runs state government, including state departments of justice. And, as you know, the Gonzales and Ashcroft justice department has been in control for most of the past 8 years. This is crap, and you GOP/conservative dung-fleas know it. So, please, one case of successful prosecution for vote fraud, please. Not registration fraud. But voting fraud. On the other hand, there are countless documented cases where people have been wrongly dumped and cleansed off the voter rolls and deprived of their right to vote. You guys are such hypocrites

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Yah the ****ing WORLD hating our guts makes us soooo much safer. Pure neo-conic. Hell the REAL CONSERVATIVES are exiting the GOP in droves. This party is TOAST.

____________________

boomshak:

GALLUP: OBAMA LOSES ANOTHER 2 POINTS AMONGST RV'S. MCCAIN ONLY 4 DOWN AMONGST LV'S!

McCain continues to surge on Gallup.

AP: O+2
GWU: O+2
Gallup: O+4
TIPP: O+4
Hotline O+5

____________________

sunnymi:


Gallup Daily Tracker (10/23)

Registered Voters
Obama - 50
McCain - 43

Likely Voters (Traditional):
Obama - 50
McCain - 46

Likely Voters (Expanded):
Obama - 51
McCain - 45

____________________

PortlandRocks:

wakeup why did you president have the Bin Laden family to his ranch? NOW THAT IS REALLY PALING AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!

____________________

tar_heel:

poor boom can't even get his numbers straight. GWU is at O+4. AP is at O+1. And Ras and the others are conspicuously absent.

Which poll will be your favorite one tomorrow, boomie? You know, the one that was going to be tied two weeks ago ;-)

____________________

mysticlaker:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama running ahead of John McCain among likely voters -- 50% to 46% using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections, and 51% to 45% using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

------------------

These results are based on Oct. 20-22 polling and suggest preferences may be stabilizing for the moment, as the data for individual nights in the three-day rolling average for both likely voter models were quite similar. Obama's current advantage in both models is slightly smaller than what Gallup reported Tuesday.

The stability is also evident in registered voters' preferences, with Obama's lead among this group now 50% to 43%, with each individual night in the Oct. 20-22 average showing similar figures.

____________________

cambridge blue:

"McCain continues to surge on Gallup."

Surge? He was within 2 points a week ago. How is going up, then down, then up again a "surge"?

____________________

boomshak:

GWU is at O+4

Nope, that is just RCP's version of GWU's numbers. GWU's topline numbers are 44/42. Got to the Tarrance Group website. 44/42 is the first poll listed.

____________________

sunnymi:


Mr. Boomshak, GWU is +4 for the day!

____________________

Flashlight:

@Kiptin

Mark Salter wrote McCain's books based on interviews. McCain didn't type a word.

Have you read Obama's books? He actually wrote them. They won Christopher Buckley over, so maybe there's hope for you too.

____________________

RussTC3:

Looks like a little bit of noise in Gallup's polling this afternoon. A better Obama day probably rolled off the average.

Obama +4 to +7 vs. Obama +5 to +9 yesterday.

Obama's 7.3% average with all the tracking polls released thus far today is just slightly lower than yesterday's 7.5% average with the same polls.

NO LOSS In Obama's support--he actually went up slightly--50.5% to 50.6%--but a small gain in McCain's support helped him slightly (43.0% to 43.3%).

____________________

KipTin:

Yes... Mark Salter is listed as author with McCain ON the book itself. So what is YOUR problem?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boomshak based on the early voting #'s and with your intelligence, it makes sense to go with Gallops TRADITIONAL model. Right? ROFL
FAIL. IDIOT.

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

Mr. Boomshak, GWU is +4 for the day!

No, that is just the version RCP chose to post. the topline number on Tarrance group is 44/42.

The poll RCP uses is on page 12 of the poll.

____________________

wakeup:

I hear Zogby is attacking AP polling...

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak - you really don't understand trends at Gallup do you?

More often than not - Gallup shows the race tightening during mid-week then it expands again over the weekend. Very rarely has it not done that.

Is Obama under 50 in Gallup? no
Is McCain above 46 in Gallup? no

Therefore they are outside the MOE, still. And just like in Rasmussen - showing a steady, though sometimes statistically noise addled race.

And that is the "traditional" LV ... If you look at "expanded" LV ... which is what early voting is showing you should be looking at ... it still got tighter today by 2 - but it's a 6 point difference there ... and still outside of the MOE.

Also Gallup says, itself: "These results are based on Oct. 20-22 polling and suggest preferences may be stabilizing for the moment, as the data for individual nights in the three-day rolling average for both likely voter models were quite similar"

GET OVER IT.

____________________

boomshak:

Look here for GWU. The first poll listed is 44/42. The 12th is 49/45:

http://www.tarrance.com/files/10.23-Presentation-graphics.pdf

____________________

mysticlaker:

Wow...It's really amazing to watch boom. He is something else.

____________________

KipTin:

You... PortlandRocks... are the real IDIOT for calling other posters names. When are you going to give up your adolescent behavior?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

kerrchdavis:

"@Flashlight
It seems we are getting the short end of the stick. While we have become sadists, this site has turned the boskops, kiptins and boomshaks of the world into famous comedians."

Kerrch, I have to break it to you, us being friends and all: there have been some on pollster who have laid the phenomenon of faux boomshaks, alankeyes et al SQUARELY at your feet. I don't have the thread reference handy, but ask around. So, 'fess up: are you or are you now THAT good?

It's been a fun few days here, just sitting and soaking in the wisdom that is boomshak and alankeyes. LOL.

____________________

venpry:

@KipTin

"The board that Obama served on where Ayers was the FOUNDER was the Chicago Annenberg Challenge... recipient of an educational "challenge" grant from the Annenberg Foundation. Neither of the Annenbergs (dead or alive) associated with Ayers"

You should probably take a look at who are the Trustees of the Annenberg Foundation. Walter Annenberg was a Trustee until his death in 2002, well after the CAC was funded. His wife, Leonore, is now President and Chairman of the Annenberg Foundation.

Walter Annenberg delegated the authority to dispense Challenge money to Vartan Gregorian; who by the way was awarded the Medal of Freedom by GW Bush in 2004.

William Ayers wrote the proposal that the Annenberg Foundation chose to fund. While Gregorian had control over funding, the Annenbergs could have easily quashed it. Considering that Walter Annenberg was a media magnate, there' s little chance that he didn't know exactly who William Ayres was when they decided to give him $50Million of the $387Million total funds available for the municipal challenge programs.

If one is to make the argument that Obama "palled around with terrorists" then you must make the simaltaneous argument that the Annenbergs, some of the largest contributors to cultural and educational development in the history of the United States (as well as known republicans) and Gregorian (again, a Medal of Freedom recipient from GW Bush), "funded terrorists" or "gave terrorists $50Million"

____________________

boomshak:

Gallup down from +8 to +4 amongst LV's in two days.

Statistical noise? No. McCain surge. Yes.

____________________

mysticlaker:

It's clear where we are. Obama has between a 6-7% national lead. It has bounced between that for the last 3 weeks. Nothing has changed. Not one thing...He around 52%, and McCain has a ceiling around 45-46%.

The remaining battlegrounds will only add to the Obama's victory at this point. Florida, NC, Indiana, Ohio, MO.

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak, try actually opening your link. It shows 49-45 for Obama... nice work there.

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

You keep on believin that.

____________________

boomshak:

GALLUP SHOCKER: NO INCREASE IN % OF FIRST TIME VOTERS OVER 2004!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.

____________________

southern angler:

Hey guys the I hear the MSM has decided that future elections will be solely decided by polls instead of actual elections.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Again, boomshak, in NONE of Gallup's polls 2 days ago, can you find a 8 point gap.
+7->+4
+10->+6
+11->+7

____________________

KipTin:

Hey... Thatcher... Gallup has already debunked your theory of weekend vs. mid-week polling.

--------
Is Obamanation upset because the Gallup poll shows a tightening of the race?

Wrong assumption regarding MOE. In traditional poll (Obama 50-McCain 46)the range is Obama at 47-53 and McCain at 43-49. In other words it could be Obama 47-McCain 49 at one end or Obama 53-Mccain 43 at other end using "maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points."

____________________

KipTin:

You guys should read the link on the youth vote that Boomshak posted. It is a good reality check based on analysis of Gallup data.

____________________

KipTin:

I guess...venpry... does not have an understanding of foundations and grants. I am pretty sure that William Ayers, Professor of Education, did not add "domestic terrorist" to his resume when he made the grant application... if he even provided a resume. More common is that the resumes of the Board of Directors were included. Your assumption that the Annenbergs knowingly associated with a domestic terrorist is extraordinarily far-reaching.

But Obama did know he was associating with a domestic terrorist. It is difficult to believe that he did not know that from the beginning because Chicago-native Michelle definitely knew who Ayers was. She knew him and his wife.

____________________

southern angler:

Rush is now talking about same the lack of youth vote from a source other than Booms, surprise surprise!

____________________

DTM:

A couple random points:

(1) Brunner's decision is good news for one Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, aka "Joe the Plumber", who was registered with a typo as "Worzelbacher".

(2) In addition to who funded the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, it is also worth looking at who else served on the Board with Obama, and thus had the exact same relationship to Ayers as Obama. That list includes:

Arnold R. Weber, former president of Northwestern University, also the member of boards of corporations such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe Inc., PepsiCo Inc., Tribune Co., John Deere & Company, Aon Corp. and Inland Steel, and who was a Nixon appointee

Raymond G. Romero, vice president and general counsel of Ameritech

Edward S. Bottum, managing director of Chase Franklin Corp. and former president and vice chairman of Continental Illinois Bank

Scott C. Smith, president, CEO and publisher of the Chicago Tribune

James Reynolds, Jr., co-founder, chairman and CEO of Loop Capital Services

What a pack of socialist terrorists!

____________________

KipTin:

What Flashlight? Won over Chris Buckley? Do you even know anything about CB politics? Hint: They have NEVER been the same as his father.

This was McCain's story and his words. Salter did not make this stuff up. So why deride McCain because he did not go the way of many and use a "ghost writer?" And like I said... McCain's words were not self-serving.

____________________

mrzookie:

@boom:

"Look here for GWU. The first poll listed is 44/42. The 12th is 49/45"

What are you going to do the other 4 days of the week when they ONLY show page 12?

____________________

southern angler:

Very random to the point of meaningless.

____________________

KipTin:

What is unique about the Obama-Ayers relationship is that Obama is running for President and it is he who was not forthcoming about his relationship with Ayers. He downplayed it just like he downplayed Wright and downplayed Rezko. Then the news dribbles out that there is more to the relationships then Obama stated. It makes Obama look like he is trying to hide something.

____________________

southern angler:

KipTin
Funny that you mention how the news dribbles. Most people did not know anything about Aryers, Wright, or Rezko(the Syrian) until recently.

____________________

DTM:

@KipTin

It is true that what is unique about Obama, as opposed to all the other people who had exactly the same relationship with Ayers, is that Obama is running for President. Therefore, only Obama stands in the way of John McCain becoming President, not these other people. So that is indeed why John McCain isn't putting out robocalls about all these other people claiming: "You need to know that [name] has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home, and killed Americans."

____________________

southern angler:

Brick wall.

____________________

mrzookie:

http://www.ibdeditorial.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

October 23, 2008

Day 11: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working-class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to 9-point lead among Catholics.

____________________



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