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US: Obama 48, McCain 43 (IBD-10/27-31)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily / TIPP
10/27-31/08; 910 LV, 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 43

 

Comments
laguna_b:

5% What does thier LV modle look like? Past history or intentions this year?

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Dana Adini:

only zogby is narrowing all the others are widening

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mac7396:

Ok, IBD/TIPP you are totally banned from Matt Drudge's super awesome web-site, permanently, (or atleast until you can show McCain within 2 again)

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Pazienza:

Most accurate presidential tracking poll last time still showing Obama at or below 48% with only 3 days to go.

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NeutralNick:

They may not be drudge worthy, but this is still closer than the final vote will end up.

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Sorry McCain!:

Sorry McCain!

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mac7396:

Most accurate presidential tracking poll last time still showing McCain at or below 43% with only 3 days to go.

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Robert:

Dear Pazienza:

I commend Nate Silver's October 30 remarks on the methodological problems with the IBD/TIPP poll. It severely under sampled young people, so that it gave McCain a huge double-digit margin and thus distorted the results. There is no indication that the problems have been addressed and corrected. See, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/anatomy-of-polling-disaster.html

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masselo:

you know this IBB/TIPP is Hannity's favorite.. i can to see him spin that one on monday -- that bastard!!!!

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

Pazienza:

IBD/TIPP was accurate in terms of the difference in the vote percentage, not the vote total percent for each candidate...in terms of vote totals it underestimated both candidates...rassmussen was more accurate in terms of total vote percentage for both, not the difference between the two.

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straight talk:

Obama is Surging! .......

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falcon79:

RCP now considers AZ a toss-up :)

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jeremy2:

@Pazienza

Right, it's now just a matter of Mccain carrying every single undecided voter. No reason to think that can't happen.

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Dana Adini:

CNN is showing Obama +1 in Montana???? tied in missouri

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hou04:

@ jeremy2

McCain carrying every single undecided voter?

Yeah, very reasonable. No reason to think that I can't win the jackpot tonight.

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Dana Adini:

sorry wasnt new MT poll but rather poll of polls

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s.b.:

Tipp Poll makes a very important point in their write up that parents were hard to reach last night, which could account for the Gallup uptick for Obama. This poll by the way only showed a .1% increase in the spread the 15 is a rounding issue.

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hou04:

@ Dana Adini

Are those new MT and MO polls??

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@s.b.

Would it not also explain Zogby outlier?

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NC Yellow Dog:

I posted this on the Gallop thred, but it got a little lost.

For the curious.

A perspective on the last day of early voting in Wake County, North Carolina. There is a early voting place near my work and I checked in at about 2:30 this afternoon, into the extended voting hours. This is a wealthy suburb, and YMMV.

There were approximately 650 people standing in line, the line was moving fairly quickly, but I was told by one voter leaving the area that he had waited two and a half hours to vote. I cruised through the parking lot to do a seriously unscientific bumper sticker count (to gage enthusiasm) and saw 8:3 Obama to McCain--Counting the Obama Yardsign taped to someone's truck.

Previous bumper counts at this location have been 5:3 and 2:1.

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Dana Adini:

ARG new polls today

Arkansas Mcain +7 51- 44
Florida Obama +4 50-46
Indiana tied 48-48
and.....
Pensylvania Obama + 6 51-45

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/PA08.html

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fed:

OK.............Get ready. Here is the prank that was played on Palin already posted .(I think it is bad for her, tell me what you think)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc

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jonny87:

@Dana Adini

looks like FL is trending away from mccain again after a little tightening

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hou04:

My prediction on Zogby's release for later tonight:

I think he will say McCain is "cutting" into Obama's lead even more, so his poll can be mentioned tomorrow on the Sunday talk shows. It'll probably be Obama's lead down to only 2-3 points ahead. "Dead heat... this is very close... McCain crushing Obama among Joe Six-Packs and Nascar Dads".. something stupid along those lines.

Zogby loves the attention.

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political_junki:

Thanx Dana, along with Mason/Dixon these are great news

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fed:

OMG!!!!!!! After listening to it, I am speechless. This prank will be devastating for the McCain campaign.

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Dana Adini:

lololololol that is so funny!!!!!!!!!!!1

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DecaturMark:

hou04:
"My prediction on Zogby's release for later tonight"

I think the overnights will trend back to Obama as that is how they are trending in the majority of the polls.

I don't think Zogby wants to be the one hanging in the breeze come Nov 4.

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DecaturMark:

I had to stop listening. It was so embarrasing.

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WillPearson:

Oh I don't know.

The nailin' pailin' thing is embarrassing and funny.

I mean. She seems like an idiot. But we knew that already.

Gotta give her credit for sticking with her talking points though. Even though it probably speaks more to her complete lack of independent thought than to her skill as a politician.

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Dana Adini:

zogby is a joke..I'm beginning to doubt he even polls people. He leaks his results, he's all over the place and that to go along with his dismal 2004 perfromance.

he's a bigger joke than the Palin prank

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fed:

I can't believe it. How will the McCain campaign spin this prank? What kind of damage control can they do?

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douglasdao:

Wow, even the most seriously anti-Obama pollster has Obama's lead increasing.

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Dana Adini:

what's a bigger joke

a) Palin prank
b) zogby
c) the McCain campaign

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DecaturMark:

And Biden was raked over the coals for calling out an obvious partisan hack in an interview for the same type of questions. If Palin had said, "Wait a minute you guys are trying to punk me," I would have more repect for her.

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VA Yellow Dog:

For those of you worried about VA, I went to early vote at Richmond city hall today, and the estimated wait was 3-4 hours (I didn't wait). 80% + of those waiting in line were AA (population of Richmond is about 65% AA overall). For Obama to win VA he has to roll up big margins in No. VA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. Based on the early voting in Richmond, those large margins look to be happening.

Get out and VOTE!

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VA Yellow Dog:

One other note: I have received over a dozen McCain robocalls today. If I wasn't already voting for Obama, the GD robocalls would cause me to do so.

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political_junki:

HOLLY COW:
Has anyone seen the numbers from GA?
2 million people have voted already and AA turn out has remained steady --->> 35%!!!!

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

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cinnamonape:

"Maybe in eight years"....

No Sarah...this prank will haunt you for longer, far longer..."Tu est un Rouge Cou". But you really couldn't speak French can you, Sarah?

I hope that they broadcast this all over Louisiana...it could swing the State to Obama!

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jonny87:

palin eh, what a joke.

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Dana Adini:

i just heard it again.....really funny

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RossPhx:

9% undecided? And Rasmussen has only 3% undecided. Can't these pollsters help each other out a little? Like, won't Rasmussen share some of the phone numbers for its surplus of decided voters?

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laguna_b:

Actually given the incredibly low expectation I always have for Palin the Ludicrous, I thought she came off amazingly well. She sounded like the typical housewife called on a prank....something housewives might identify with....

I think the Couric interview was far more devastating.....

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Dana Adini:

she should have been on to it when he started singing

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I believe that Zogby has reduced the number of Democrats in their sample. Besides I only trust the individual state polls. When the country goes to a popular vote election then I will trust the national polls.

Whoever wins the election, neither Obama nor McCAIN support single payer universal health care. I would like people to go to http://poll.democratz.org and answer a single poll question on Single Payer Universal Health Care.

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mysticlaker:

@laugana

what this really shows is the ineptitude of the camapign.

She was really polite, and I think that was an appopriate way to start.

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political_junki:

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Man thay Baboon, Palin, is such a joke.

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Dana Adini:

personally have nothing against her except that she isn't even close to being quafilied

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political_junki:

Listen to this guys: NV senator says Palin is not ready, and McCain is supposed to win in NV??? when the republican senator of the state is saying Palin is not ready:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Ensign_says_Palin_not_up_to_being_president.html

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political_junki:

any new numbers from states today?
except the ARG and Dixon?
no VA ?

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jonny87:

the media still covering obamas auntie?

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laguna_b:

She is still the person off the street.....naive and uneducatable....I could easily see others seeing her as a victim instead of realizing that she is simply unqualified.

Education and educatability begins at childhood and is nurtured through out life. You can't turn it on at 44 and decide you are going to develop the disciplined thinking that others have been learning thier whole life. That is why the idea of "grooming" Sarah is ludicrous....didn't work on Bush....

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SoloBJ:

I just listened to the prank. She should have known something was up but it seems like she was so busy sticking to her talking points that she wasn't really paying attention to what was being said.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Dana Adini

Let me give you a list of things you might hold against her (just for fun):

1) She is incurious to the extent that she believes that Dinosaurs and men coexisted on this plante less than 5000 years ago.

2)She want to teach creationism in schools so that young children grow up confused by science and rationalism and we can undo centuries of science and philosophy in the name of superstition.

3)She wanted to ban books and doesn't seem to know what the 1st Amendment to the Constitution is for. She would eviscerate the basic liberties that make America great all in the name of greater political power and the advancement of Christian Dominionism.

4)She stokes the fires of inequality by denying basic civil rights to gay and lesbian couples. She does not believe that "all men are created equal" and that only people that she has chosen to be equal should be equal.

5)She is a walking ethics violation and believes that the law only applys to you and me and not to her. This is the worst kind of hubris since it demands self delusion with a heavy dose of hypocracy.

That is my top-5 but if you need some more ammo on why she's a crappy person in addition to being a crappy politician I could go on for a while.

:=)

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Basil:

African Americans may turn out to be the heroes of this election. For whatever reason, too many states are ill-equipped to deal with high turnout, or have attempted to suppress it.

So what do AA's do? They stand in long lines many whites would be unwilling to stand in, vote overwhelmingly for Obama, and show the world that after waiting for two hundred years, they can handle a few more hours.

I expect AA's to be overrepresented in the huge lines that will happen on Tuesday, and that the intensity of their grievance will continue to give them a tenacity that cannot be matched by unenthused McCain supporters. It could get ugly, too.

I do worry a little that 18-24's who plan on making a party of it will mistakenly think their support isn't needed at the wire.

I'll say it until hell freezes over: the Oregon system is the way to go. Maybe '08 will convince a few more states of that.

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laguna_b:

@oneangrydwarf

You sum up Palin pretty well.....she is a naive fascist....one who wouldn't even understand the implications of her fascism.

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Obama008:

lol, that was funny as hell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc

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Batony:

Boy...I don't know a foreign radio station attacking Palin. Better be careful for the sympathy vote.

Obama's campaign giving back aunt's donation?

This election is about as crazy as ever.

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masselo:

political_junki:

this call pranked on pallin -- is it a joke or is it reall for real? tell me please

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Basil:

Maybe Sarah the Impalin' will take the Cheney endorsement and run with it.

Has Ah-nold said "Vote for John if you want to live" yet?

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Trosen:

Wow.. she should have been on to the joke after about the first 2 minutes. What a twit.

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fed:

@ masselo
IT IS REAL

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laguna_b:

The FIRST and most important task of the NEW regime will be to FIX the voting system so Republicans can no longer FIX the results!

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political_junki:

jonny:
Do you know if Rass going to release new numbers today?

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MsJohnson:

McCain is surging. It's just a secret surge.

"Undecideds"? I agree with Bill Maher. "Undecideds - or as I call them 'the retarded' . . ." LOL

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MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry,
no pressure, but I am counting on you to deliver AZ for my surprise pick and to put me over 400 EV's :). We are getting plenty of help from Palin, to be sure.

I see today's map as 396 + take aways.
I see 400 benchmark as a coattails threshold for 60 seats in Senate.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@laguan_b

Amen to that. Mail in ballot maybe? I live in AZ and got on the permanent Absentee list. My ballot showed up weeks ago, I sat down went through the issues and the candidates. Filled it out and sent it back. No line, no problems, easy.

Welcome to the 21st century.

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hou04:

@ jonny87

Actually that NH poll is Obama 51, McCain 44

http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081031/BREAK/310319998

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Batony:

PA: Rasmussen has Obama plus 4?
Morning Call plus 8...interesting numbers.

I have a feeling McCain is going to pull Va out...I don't know just a funny feeling, I could be totally wrong, but it just seems that people are predicting an Obama way too soon. Both rallies today were well attended.

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carl29:

@Basil,

I totally agree with you. I think that the determination that AA's are showing is just admirable.

This is a "little" example: Today I was driving down US-1 in Miami Dade when I spotted a couple of AA's waiving Obama signs. Then I saw it, an AA man in a wheelchair waiving his sign. I mean, those of you who know Miami know how the sun here is. The fact that this brave man was there doing what he could do in his circumstances to help Barack was just heartwarming. I came home and donated something on his behalf :-)

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Vercingetorix:

I've just been listening to somebody from the Zogby organisation being interviewed on radio in the UK. Didn't catch his name. It could have been Zogby himself.

It seems that you poor Americans are having the truth hidden from you because:

Firstly, "the polls" have narrowed 2 points in one day.

Secondly, Obama got no bounce from the half hour special; in fact "the polls" have gone the other way since his appearance.

Thirdly, state polls are a lagging indicator and will soon start showing the same narrowing as "the national polls".

I must be spending too much time on at Pollster, because it seemed to me like everything he said was wrong, verging on lying. But that can't be so, because Zogby is a reputable polling organisation.....

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SoloBJ:

I think the majority of the undecideds will break for McCain but I also think a number of these people won't even bother to vote and sit this one out. I just don't see how anyone can be undecided at this point. Think it just sounds better to say "I'm undecided" as opposed to "I'm not going to vote."

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straight talk:

@everyone

I guess fox is the only one pushing the Aunt story! Folks The Gops GOTV is non existent! Have anyone heard about the M camps GOTV yet? !

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Basil:

laguna

Amen, brother. No more Florida '00 or Ohio '04.

Any neo-nuts here willing to defend the system? You should be ashamed to call yourselves Americans.

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maddiekat:

ABC WP Daily Tracking Poll O 53 - M 44 No Change

Zogby is a fraud!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

No problem man, I'm going out in the field here on Monday to do my part. Taking the wife with me too.

Actually until recently the GOTV machine here has been pretty sparce. Though in the last few days even my neighborhood has seen an influx of Democratic foot-soldiers. They are mostly working for Giffords here but they've been by the house 2X now and the group in Tucson at least seems to be growing.

McCain really seems to have sunk himself among moderate Republicans here in AZ. They won't vote for Obama, but they just might not vote at all. Add that to the large hispanic population and this state looks a lot like CO or NM.

Anecdotally the last election cycle you saw tons of "Viva Bush" bumper stickers. This time NOTHING! I have not seen a single "Viva McCain" sticker anywhere in Tucson. Combined those factors and I'm starting to feel the ground trembling here in AZ.

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carl29:

@SoloBJ,

I think that is McCain biggest risk: That those undecided stay home. Look, obviously those people don't like Barack; however, they are not convinced by McCain either. They are not on the "we-hate-Barack" column because those are more than firmly in the McMaverick camp, fired up and ready to vote against Barack. So, McCain needs to give them reasons to hate Barack and bother waiting in line for god knows how long and vote against him. If those people already don't hate Barack, I can't think of anything in the next 2 days that could do the trick.

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hou04:

ABC tracking same as yesterday, Obama 53 McCain 44 (heard from a commenter on 538)

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Pat:

@fed:

OMG. This is bad. She is such a light weight that she does not recognize a prank call. She can be fooled easily..... Imagine her finger on nuclear codes.

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Jaq:

McCain might have drawn "thousands" to his Newport News rally-I can't find precise numbers on it-but Obama drew over 32,000 to his two rallies in Virginia Beach and Norfolk last week, plus 18,000 to one in Newport News in early October.

A Democrat drawing 50,000 to his rallies in the military heart of Virginia? Yeah, that's pretty good.

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sunnymi:


WaPo-ABC Tracking: Nine Divided by 56 is...

In a mere 56 hours, voters in Dixville Notch, NH will cast the first Election Day ballots of the 2008 contest, and in that time, John McCain will need to close a big gap among likely voters if he is to defeat Barack Obama.

In today's Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, Obama holds a 53 to 44 percent lead over McCain, unchanged from yesterday, and little in the survey suggests that trimming the margin would be an easy feat.

For the first time, the slice of likely voters who report they will "definitely" vote for Obama has (by just a hair) now reached 50 percent, a milestone which George W. Bush never reached in Post-ABC tracking polls in 2004 or 2000, and the number of movable voters - those who said they could change their minds or who remain undecided - has slimmed to 7 percent.

McCain's campaigning over the past week has not convinced more voters that Obama is a risky choice, nor has he gained ground as the candidate better able to handle taxes or the economy. (Obama holds a 13-point advantage on taxes, his largest of the campaign, and a 14-point lead on the economy.) For the second time in Post-ABC polling, Obama has crossed into majority support as the candidate better able to manage an unexpected crisis.

One plus for McCain: Strong enthusiasm among his supporters has moved up a bit to 41 percent, the highest level it's been since the Republican convention, but still far behind the 68 percent of Obama supporters who are deeply enthused by his candidacy.

We've upped the sample size for the Post-ABC tracking poll for the final days, and are now interviewing around 600 likely voters each night. These far-larger-than-usual sample sizes allow for analysis of some subgroups we can't normally assess in regular polling.

Here are a few of those oft-too-small religious groups:

Jewish voters heavily favor Obama, 70 percent to 29 percent.

Younger white evangelical Protestants (under age 39) break more for McCain than do older people in that group, 85 percent to 13 percent.

Among white Catholics, however, the age break tilts in the opposite direction. Younger white Catholics (under age 35) narrowly favor Obama over McCain, 52 percent to 48 percent, while older Catholics break for McCain, 51 percent to 45 percent.

Full data from today's Post-ABC tracking poll can be found here.

Obama McCain
All voters 53 44

Men 51 45
Women 55 43

Age:
18-29 66 32
30-39 53 44
40-49 51 45
50-64 51 47
65+ 49 47

Democrats 89 9
Independents 48 48
Republicans 12 86

Protestants 46 52
White Protestants 36 62
Wh. evang. Prots. 21 77
Wh. non-ev. Prot. 49 49

Catholics 53 44
White Catholics 50 49

Jewish 70 29

Oth. non-Christian 74 25

No religion 73 20

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_110108.html

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kc_in_MN:

Palin didn't come off as badly as I had hoped during the prank.
I did some phone banking today for the Dems in the Southeast MN area, calling independents and some soft Dems - some people were really quite crabby and claimed to have been called >10 times already. :P

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masselo:

Carl29 ---let me ask you -- are you black or white?

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KMartDad08:

Imagine if a foreign leader did call her and she sounded like that? Surely it's time we have a VEEP that will restore a little dignity to the office. She came across like some star struck high school girl.

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straight talk:

@ OBama Supporters

CHILL OUT! You guys are freakin out too much! Every southern state that Has a large AA like Va! OBama overperforms his poll numbers! This is why I am confident in places like PA, VA, NC, Ga, and Texas!

IT IS ABOUT THE GOTV MACHINE! The O Camp has a strategy! I have not seen the Gop 72 hour GOTv strategy!

The O camp Told you the polls would tightned! The M supporters are confident even though they are being crushed in early voting!

My Friends that is GOTV POWER! DO not take that for granted!

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Dana Adini:

florida early number just got updated

Dems + 6.8%

3,787,414 vots cast

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radmod:

@VA Yellow Dog

Early voting in VA?!? Since when? Or do you mean the absentee voting? In Williamsburg/JCC we have no early voting. At least, no mention of it anywhere.

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Batony:

If I am an Obama supporter...and I have some free time I'm hitting Virginia as hard as I can.

The DC media maybe giving his supporters a false sense of victory.

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carl29:

masselo,

Neither :-) !!! I am a white Hispanic!

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jonny87:

@political_junki

im sure rass releases party affiliation numbers every saturday evening(has done for the past few weeks anyway)

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KMartDad08:

I know the IBD/TIPP poll is crap, but to see this quote on the IBD site makes my blood boil: "Obama's lead firmed heading into the final weekend as [he] drew even with men, made inroads down South and added to his new lead in the suburbs. But this may have been due to parents out with trick-or-treating kids."

Is that what they really think? Obama did better because parents were taking their kids trick or treating? They know full well that Obama's numbers always tank in the Fri-Sat polling, but he does better in this poll so it must have been some external factor. Or maybe all the Obama supporters were staying in on Fri. night out of fear that the ICE would out them like it did his aunt.

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Dana Adini:

21st century....there has to be a better way to ensure that every american can vote without waiting 4 on line.

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jonny87:

@Dana Adini

7.8% gap?

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Batony:

Obama only has a 7.5% lead? John Kerry led Bush by 16% in early voting in 2004 and lost to Bush by 5%.

The media is doing Obama a disservice. No one likes a candidate that comes off too cocky. Plus John McCain is not hated, a lot of people still like him.

OBAMA supporters don't get overconfident!! WORK! WORK! WORK!

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masselo:

I think they should make election day a notianal holyday

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NW Patrick:

Gosh I've had CNN on for an hour and not ONE MENTION of Obama's distant aunt. Nice polls today! It comes down to this. Bush was up 1.5% in the RCP average. It appears Obama will be up around 6% heading into election day. We will either have an Obama presidency or the largest polling collapse in US HISTORY at the national and state level. Sorry righties, it won't happen. Polls simply pick up movements...and this is CLEARLY an Obama movement whether your poll says 4 or 10 it's a movement:) Good Bye GOP.

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laguna_b:

@batony
"OBAMA supporters don't get overconfident!! WORK! WORK! WORK!"

That makes TWO time we agree.

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jonny87:

....with the new Fl numbers i make it a 295000 dem early vote advantage and likely 350000+ by the end of early voting.

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sunnymi:


@Dana Adini:

Yes, the early voting numbers out of FL are great....that is a 11.6% turnaround in early voting advantage of the Dems when compared to the Republicans..point to note though is that as a percentage of the eligible voters only 33.7% have voted early this time when compared to 36.1% last time.

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carl29:

jonny87,

Florida^
(in-person & absentee returned)3,787,414... 46.9% out of 7,640,319 of people who voted in TOTAL in 2004.

Party
Dem 45.6%
Rep 37.8%
No/Oth 16.6%

Ballot
Absentee 39.4%
In-person 60.6%

Look at the numbers in 2004, 7,640,319 in TOTAL, and out of those 36.1% voted early. The party ID was Dem. 40.7%, Rep. 43.5%, and Ind. 15.8%. Compared to 2008 :-)

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NW Patrick:

I heard someone making a comment about evangelicals will turn out in BIBLICAL #'s and turn this election. Yah. Right.:) Here's the problem. Evangelicals turned out in RECORD #'s in 2004. Bush lead in most polls by 2-4%. Obama leads most polls by 4-15%. BIG BIG difference in the mood of the electorate.

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NW Patrick:

ID LIKE TO THANK DICK CHENEY! DEF helped curve the headlines today:) What a patriot!

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Batony:

I just did a google search on Obama's Aunt and here you go:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=oBAMA'S+AUNT&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title

See this is where my old Democratic instincts start to bubble. CAN THIS ELECTION END TODAY?? Who knows what the GOP has up their sleeves. They are already running the Jeremiah Wright ad here in Northern VA

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sunnymi:


@Batony, you said "Obama only has a 7.5% lead? John Kerry led Bush by 16% in early voting in 2004 and lost to Bush by 5%."

While I completely agree with your "WORK WORK WORK" mantra I would like to know where you got the 16% Kerry lead in FL 2004? As per the early vote guys the party ID split for 2004 early vote in FL was Dem. 40.7%, Rep. 43.5%, and Ind. 15.8%

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Obama008:

Batony.

Your numbers are off.

Bush had way more early voters.

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jonny87:

@carl29

hows turnout looking today?

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NW Patrick:

Batony just turned on CNN and MSNBC... for over an hour I've seen nothing but campaign speeches. Remember MOST Americans don't watch cable news. Let's see if it gets any traction on the 3 nightly news reports and Sunday papers. I don't see this a big deal. McCain hasn't TOUCHED it. Could IGNITE the immigrant vote.

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straight talk:

IF O is up in these polls on Tuesday! He will carry them! There is ABSOlutely no evidence to support the GOPS GOtV effort this yr! Early voting is how Bush won in O4!

TEXAS is a state that I think McCain better be watchin!

Obama is so cool, while his supporters are biting there nails!

You guys are hilarious! You are buyin into the BRadley effect theory subconciously! It is really funny to see! lol

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sunnymi:

@Obama008, you are right.

In fact the Republicans have had their best GOTV infrastructure in FL over the years and yet this Dem advantage in early voting..it is definitely worth a mention.

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Basil:

Nov. 4 isn't a national holiday because that would give working people enough time to vote. If they did it would lead straight to socialism. Better to just let them vote on their lunch hour (if they can pass the literacy test and figure out the ballot) and close the polls at 5:00.

Father knows best. Go back to sleep.

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carl29:

FACTS ABOUT EARLY VOTING IN FLORIDA:

1) What does the 7.8% gap stand stand for? Well, it is the party ID gap in EARLY voting so far in FL, Dem. 45.6% vs. Rep. 37.8%, a 7.8% advantage for the Democrats.

2) Why is this party ID gap relevant? Well, in 2004 it was the Republicans the ones with the party ID advantage in EARLY voting, Rep. 43.5% vs. Dem. 40.7%, a 2.8% advantage for the Republicans.

3) How is the turnout overall in FL so far? Well, in 2004 36.1% of the TOTAL voters in FL voted early. Using the same number of people who voted in 2004, this year, 46.9% have voted so far. Today is the last day of early voting :-)

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sunnymi:

@straight talk, you cool talk is a boon to many here :-)

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Observer:

OK so where do we stand?

1. Last week Obama had a good week up to and including the results announced last Saturday. McCain then had four days of improvement. Disappointingly for this McCain supporter this was followed by three good days for Obama (per the average ) which may or may not be linked to the infomercial.

2. McCain might be doing better in weekend polling and might therefore uptick over the next 2/3 days. However if it is only that it won't really mean much.

3. Several trackers lose a good day for Obama in tomorrows figures so if McCain does not improve a little it will be very good for Obama.

4. If McCain improves a lot then this could be:
a) Getting over the 'bump' from the infomercial.
b) Fallout from the aunty business etc.
c) Undecided voters making up their minds
d) All of the above

5. Can McCain still win? Of course he can but:

a) It might mean squeaking out wins in most of the battlegrounds including PA with the help of the undecided voters.

b) If he does it will likely be with a minority of the popular vote, a most unsatisfactory result. But if the state polls are anything like accurate Obama will have millions of surplus votes in blue states.

6. Obama is still just over 50% on average nationally. But if he ends up polling say 49% nationally, hardly a radical departure from the national polls, he will lose this election.

Obama is closer to winning than he was a week ago because nothing much has changed and by all calculations he has a comfortable lead. However I refuse to give up hope.

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Batony:

Nope. I refuse to get excited about early voting numbers in 2004. Was fooled in 2004.

Can someone tell me why Obama's aunt living the US illegally is a big deal?

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carl29:

@jonny87,

Turnout is fantastic, especially around AA areas. Those are the areas with the longest lines, 5 hours to vote.

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sunnymi:

carl29, you said "3) How is the turnout overall in FL so far? Well, in 2004 36.1% of the TOTAL voters in FL voted early. Using the same number of people who voted in 2004, this year, 46.9% have voted so far. Today is the last day of early voting :-)"

*Important Note here*:
Out of the registered voters this year in FL only 33.7% have voted early compared to 36.1% in 2004..note the increase in registrations this year

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sunnymi:

carl29, you said "3) How is the turnout overall in FL so far? Well, in 2004 36.1% of the TOTAL voters in FL voted early. Using the same number of people who voted in 2004, this year, 46.9% have voted so far. Today is the last day of early voting :-)"

*Important Note here*:
Out of the registered voters this year in FL only 33.7% have voted early compared to 36.1% in 2004..note the increase in registrations this year

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Basil:

batony

I don't get the aunt thing either.

Anyway, she's a half-aunt, so you may have to be a half-wit to get it.

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carl29:

sunnymi,

The reason I use the 2004 number of voters as based line is because I am not putting my hopes so high as to suggest that 2008 turnout will be too far from 2004. Sorry if I am dashing people's hope, but as a resident of the "Sunshine" state I don't have faith in this state, harsh? reality check my friend.

All I am concentrating on is the fruits of the Democratic ground-game/GOTV this election compared to the very skiful Republicans. The level of enthusiam among Florida Democrats is leading to those never-ending lines. I love Democracy :-)!!!!

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jonny87:

@sunnymi

'Out of the registered voters this year in FL only 33.7% have voted early compared to 36.1% in 2004..note the increase in registrations this year'

if your using this site...

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

does 36.1% not refer to the early vote percentage of the total vote overall...and not the turnout of registered voters.

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Observer:

A few things about the Florida voting:

I think the Dems had a registration advantage in 2004 when Bush won by 5%.

A lot of southern Dems regularly vote Rep for President.

I would expect McCain to get more Dem cross over votes than Bush received.

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Observer:

I don't think the aunt thing will or should go anywhere even though I support McCain. I see no reason to doubt that Obama knew nothing about the immigrant status of his aunt.

The reason why we are likely to hear more about it over the next few days is because it is news and it can be spun by Reps (not by McCain and Palin who won't touch it) to touch on a lot of other issues:

Obama's spreading the wealth being contrasted with the fact that the wealthy Obama has done nothing to help his poor relatives.

A history of a very low level of charity donations by both Obama and Biden.

The illegal immigration issue.

The non-vetting of illegal donations issue by the Obama campaign and Obama reneging on taking public funding.


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Pazienza:

It is that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work. (Barack Obama informercial quote)

The issue isn't that Obama's aunt is in the country illegally. The issue is that Obama's aunt lives in a Boston slum and Obama doesn't lift a finger to help her financially. In fact he apparently cares so little about a member of his own family that he claims he doesn't even know about her illegal status. Maybe when Obama redistributes the wealth his aunt will be taken care of by Obama's government handouts.

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