10/06-09,08; 1,203 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 43
Smear campaign: fail
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:06 AM
hmm ... they write "Obama had his first single-day polling above 50%, while McCain polled in the low 40s for the second day in a row."
maybe my math skills just suck but if he polled over 50% for the first time how can his 3 day avg fall from 47.8 to 47.6 ? strange
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:08 AM
Yesterday's national weighted averages drawn from the following pollsters (weightings -- taken from fivethirtyeight.com -- shown in brackets) shows no real change from the day before.
Battleground (0.38) Zogby (0.67) Hotline (0.51) Gallup (1.09) Rasmussen (1.71) Economist (1.21) R2K (0.68).
This spread estimate places Obama midway between the RCP (+5.6) and the Pollster (+6.5) national averages. Arguably Obama has lost one percentage point since the start of the week as a result of the McCain campaign's character attacks. But even if this were the case, it would be a poor result for McCain, who needs to be level-pegging Obama nationally in order to get back in the electoral college race, where the numbers continue to deteriorate for him.
That was my first thought: this is mathematically impossible.
Zogby is seriously flawed. I wouldn't let my 10 years old son get away with this.
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:14 AM
German stock market down by ca. 8% right now. Finance and insurrance titels by 14-15%.
Go, John! I want to know more about Ayers!!!
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:17 AM
Its over. Lets get off the internet this weekend and make sure its a 10 point victory for obama.
Lets end the era of reaganism forever (for the record i dont decry what reagan did, but the gop of the 21st century do not represent reagan). For only if we end it for good, will the GOP emerge a better party.
The GOP supporters take heart from the fact that people like Jindal and Pawlenty are your future. At the same time hope they are paying close attention to this election so they don't get corrupted like the rest of your sorry bunch. I truly hope this brings an end to dumb people like Bush and Palin. I hope she loses in 2010.
GOP is no longer the party of ideas, neither are the dems but Obama is. I hope he rubs off on both of these parties.
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:25 AM
Good Guys 52
yesterday's result Obama +14 (highest recorded) with McLoser under 40%.
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/09 39 53 2 2 2 2
Umm, it might be time to talk about the issues instead of the crap the COWARDS throw around.
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:26 AM
Oh, I like to include this as well from the R2000 poll.
CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
MCCAIN 40 51 9
OBAMA 59 33 8
BIDEN 57 30 13
PALIN 37 55 8
Palin: -18 Favorabilty....Pre-Poopergate...Haha. McCain -11 Favoribility. A 7 point drop this week.
Boom/Kip/Jenn/All you crazy supporters of McChicken, if you need a tissue to wipe you tears let me know...
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:28 AM
Both this poll and the R2K/KOS poll is very much wahat I am expecting I have provoked Marctx, boomshak and a few other of my right wing frends with a forecast that one of the trackers might hit 54/55% to Obama by Saturday.
Nate Silver at 538 is so excited by the apparent debate movement to Obama that he has actually commented on the trackers.
I know you are weighting my tracker average went from 6.2% to 6.5% yesterday.
With regards to Gallup - the big difference other than RV to LV is Gallup seems to have a different ethnic and age demo to Rasmussen, I think he is under on the AA weight, but most significantly CELL PHONES which Rasmussen doesn't phone.
OK Gallup will go to 53% Obama today and Rasmussen back to 52%.
The map looks like being 1964 again apart from Texas.
Not Happy morning for John McCain
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:38 AM
Obama at 79 on intrade.
I am the stupidest ass ever not to buy shares at 50 two weeks ago.
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:45 AM
DailyKos O +12, with the latest single-day figure O +13
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:48 AM
Correction: 10/9 DailyKos daily figure is [b]O +14[/b]
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:49 AM
yes 53 -39 single day MOE 5%
Posted on October 10, 2008 7:58 AM
Ahh (creaks as he gets out of bed, where is my fiber, gotta have it for another day of attacking Obama.) I hope Rasmussen moves back in Obama's direction today. Or stays 50-45. We shall see. Prediction: boomshak will make himself scarce on here today.
Posted on October 10, 2008 8:07 AM
No, he'll just condemn this and all other polls as outliers, and hope we don't notice he's worshiped these polls in the past.
Posted on October 10, 2008 8:33 AM
So wasn't the 2 point Zogby what the McCaininites were rubbing themselves raw over yesterday? Ok, let me steal their thunder:
"Just wait till the Ayers stuff permeates through peoples' consciousness. You'll see the polls tighten up over the weekend."
anyone wanna bet me that's the party line for today?
Posted on October 10, 2008 9:16 AM
Zogby's party ID breakdown revealed:
+2 Dem? Yeah, right. Still, if Obama hit 50 yesterday, and McCain was in the low 40s, that spells BIG trouble for McCain considering that the party ID gap is probably at least +4 Dems in reality.
Posted on October 10, 2008 9:21 AM
@Trosen: I don't take sucker bets.
Posted on October 10, 2008 9:24 AM
Well I'm just gonna wait and see because Joe Scarborough says McCain's attacks will work and that by next week the polls will be tight yet again.
Personally I would like an investigation about what is in those coffee cups they drink from over there on Morning Joe.
Go Obama Go
Posted on October 10, 2008 9:29 AM
OG, i'd say it's at least +6 Dem affiliation.
Posted on October 10, 2008 9:33 AM
Personally I think the media wants a close election, at the same time some agencies want to place blame for the economy. They're torn. A close election means more viewers, blaming the economic mess on the Republicans (whether legitimate or not) means more viewers ... what to do?
Personally I think most of the news agencies have decided that the economy is more important (it is). Because so much of this is related to deregulation, poor fiscal policies, poor policies at the fed, trade deficits, etc., it's rather hard not to blame the Republicans. Also, "Joe six-pack," is likely to blame the Republicans as well while his pension/retirement fund goes into the red, his vote/state, will lean more and more towards the blue.
Posted on October 10, 2008 10:02 AM
Surprisingly boomSPIN is missing today
Maybe he's knocking on doors for McToasted
Posted on October 10, 2008 11:19 AM
Zogby puts the Dem party ID edge at +2%.
The 2004 exit poll found the party split to be even.
Since 2004, Democratic registrations have increased by 5%, and Republican registrations have decreased by 2%. See:
Zogby is under-estimating the gap between the 2 parties by as much as 5%.
Posted on October 10, 2008 11:55 AM
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