10/09-12,08; 1,206 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 44
The past week's aggregated national polls from Zogby, Hotline, Gallup, Rasmussen and R2K have seen no real change in the state of the race. Indeed, what is remarkable is how stable support for the two candidate has been. Support for both McCain and Obama have each been contained within a 1 percentage point band all week. I have produced a graph of the weighted averages here:
Note that Monday does not include Zogby and Sunday's result uses Gallup's RV numbers for the sake of consistency (I will switch to their LV Model II this week).
The bottom line is that Obama would need to drop decisively below 50% or break out beyond 51% in order for any claims to be be sustained about a change in the dynamics. With only three weeks to go, McCain's position looks irrecoverable by almost any historical precedent (the exception being 1980).
Posted on October 13, 2008 6:32 AM
ras 50 obama, 45 mccain (see drudge)down another point....i hope we have a stable race!
Posted on October 13, 2008 6:42 AM
....mccains 'reset' speech...were down 6 points
Posted on October 13, 2008 6:44 AM
If we just go on historical precedent McCain would not have won the nomination and nor of course would Obama have won the Dem nomination.
It makes me think of when a sports commentator starts talking about a streak. You just know it's about to come to an end.
But more seriously I doubt there has ever been an economic crisis like this in the run up to an election before. I don't think anything is decided yet.
Posted on October 13, 2008 6:50 AM
couldnt agree more...theres too many dynamics in this race to call it 3 weeks out.
Posted on October 13, 2008 6:53 AM
Bad timing for Zogby, Ras and Drudge to manipulate the release of MANIPULATED numbers. All the morning shows and cable stations will be talking about the ABC poll. I think the poll to watch is the Battleground Poll being that they have been the best 2 out of the last 3 elections.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:08 AM
I agree that history does not constrain the present, but it can inform. Reagan's 1980 comeback rode the late and only debate. McCain still has a debate, but it's the third and the perceptions/expectations of most debate-watchers have already been set.
McCain is going to come out with guns blazing today on his "reboot" strategy, but does anyone really have any confidence that his campaign's performance will spin on a dime and suddenly become the epitome of focus and discipline.
If by the end of this week Obama is still sitting on 50+ and the battleground states are in anything like the shape they are in at the moment, it really will be curtains.
what were the number of dems, reps and indies for the abc poll?
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:18 AM
INSIDER SOURCE: RASMUSSEN DOWN TO +5 OBAMA TODAY
I just learned from an inside source that Rasmussen shows the race tightening even further to +5 today. This is after Gallup showed the race + 4 amongst likely voters yesterday and even the wildly volatile Hotline Poll shaved 2 points off The One's lead.
WHAT IS HAPPENING:
Simple, America assumed that McCain had lost. Obama was GOING TO WIN the White House. Suddenly, people started really focusing on WHO OBAMA IS and they found more smoke than substance.
McCain is a terrible candidate but he has been an effective Senator. Obama has been a wonderful candidate but a mediocre Senator at best with a scary and checkered past (heavy drug use in college, friendships with one radical after another, substantive evidence that his own book may have been ghost-written by an unrepentant terrorist, closely tied to an organization neck-deep in voter fraud).
Now that people are looking closer at Obama and the reality that this well-spoken neophyte may become the most powerful man on earth, they are a bit nervous about the proposition.
Obama should be +20 right now. Instead he is +4 Gallup (LV's), +5 Rasmussen (LV's) and +4 Zogby (LV's).
Between now and election day, the market could easily rally 1,500 - 2,000 points (Dow Futures + 327 this am), gas could be $3/gallon, and Israel may even strike Iran. As economic fears ease, stories like the Ayers connection increase in importance.
The fact that Pelosi, in her arrogance, is already measuring the drapes for the White House isn't helping.
Obama's support has always been a mile wide and an inch deep and the ice is cracking.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:27 AM
Hope springs eternal in boomshak's breast.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:28 AM
You are on medication, right?
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:29 AM
@Boomshak, you do not need an insider source for Ras O+5 news today. It is all over the web and is apparently a part of M's campaign reboot narrative :-)
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:31 AM
Thanks for repeating the republican talking points as McStupid attempts to reboot his campaign! Your inside source is telling you that McCain and Obama are at the same place they were on Friday with Ras...Great job.
Don't forget the washington post poll with Obama up by 10 (LV) and 14(RV) you douchebag.
No one is measuring curtains...We are measuring voters. If you'd like a state of the race, read this. Nothing McCain can do can fix this at this point:
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:32 AM
well said, mysticlaker!
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:36 AM
Another event that may well follow upon a gain of 2000 points on the DOW in the next couple of weeks.
HELL WILL FREEZE OVER
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:37 AM
Hahaha ... you're "inside source"? Would that be what's been plastered over the home page of the Drudge Report all morning?
Let's see what the day's polls bring before we start mind-reading the American electorate.
BTW, do you think you could refrain from parroting daily GOP talking points and phrases ..."Pelosi", "measuring the drapes" etc. At least try to present a facsimile of indpendent thought.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:38 AM
THE ABC POLL: OBAMA +10
1. This poll was taken on the 11th. McCain showed strong movement on the 12th.
2. We have no idea what the party weightings are. Newsweek's Poll gave Democrats a 14 point sampling advantage.
3. Any MSM Poll at this point should be held suspect? Why? Because they have an agenda and they don't have a reputation as pollsters to protect. Who cares if they get the poll wrong? They aren't worried about being hired as pollsters in 2010.
WHY THIS POLL MAKES ME HAPPY:
1. The more the MSM tries to create the impression that Obama cannot be stopped, it's over, the more America focuses on what they will really be buying if they elect Obama.
2. If Obama's non-moonbat fanatical supporters feel like Obama has it in the bag and voting lines are 4 hours long, they may choose to stay home.
3. This kind of polling REALLY PISSES OFF the Republican Base. Believe me, I know.
With election day this close, look moreso to major independent pollsters with SOMETHING TO LOSE IF THEY GET IT WRONG.
I hope the MSM praises this ABC Poll to the skies while ignoring Gallup and Rasmussen (Funny, 2 days ago, they all loved gallup - now no one finds Gallup interesting in the least). It ONLY HURTS Obama.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:40 AM
Yes, I have cancer. I am on quite a bit of medication.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:42 AM
According to Drudge, Rasmussen has Obama 50% McCain 45%.
Is it the first time? NO!!!
10/10/2008 McCain 45% Obama 50%
10/09/2008 McCain 45% Obama 50%
Don't get all worked up, man :-)!!!
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:44 AM
Early release of tightening numbers on the morning McCain is proclaiming himself the come back kid. Silly me there is no manupulation there...
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:45 AM
is rasmussen a partisan?....will he alter the weightings in the battlegrounds and suggest a mccain surge when he releases new data on fox tonight?
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:46 AM
I know you have cancer - you mentioned it before. I meant anti-depressants, SSRIs - that sort of thing. Your mood and reasoning swing from one extreme - "Victory!" - to another -moroseness. Of course, you could just be stupid. But there's nothing wrong with that - plenty of people are. Sarah Palin, for instance.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:47 AM
Let me ask your opinion on the ABC/WAPO Poll.
ABC/WAPO - O+14 (RV's), O+10 (LV's)
Gallup O+4 (LV's)
Rasmussen O+5 (LV's)
Zogby O+4 (LV's)
ABC, as far as I can tell, is not releasing their weightings (I'm shocked!). Comparing it to the polling of "the majors", do you find it credible?
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:49 AM
boomshak, It has a 9% adv. for the Democrats. As the majority of pollsters who release their party weight, Obama advantage is the same of the Dem. advantage, which means that Obama had finally rallied Democrats around his candidacy.
Boomshak, doesn't it worry you that McCain is quite stuck at 45%? Do you know that the last time McCain crossed the 45% was back on 09/26?
We all know there live enough people in this country who will just ignore what happened the last 8 years and would NEVER vote for Obama , so a blowout like the 20% you suggested is just a repub talking point with no justification whatsoever. Face it .. the REPUBLICANS drove the boat in the ditch both domestically and our standing in the World. That is the bag McCain has to carry and he wont be able to get away from that. Obama has a natural ceiling in this election at 51-53% so i would not expect a huge blowout but those people who are supporting him now i have a very hard time seeing them swing back to such a weak candidate as McCain.
One funny thing about that new "comeback Kid" speech by McCain (pushed by Drudge and talking point spreaders like you). You could just about imagine Hillary Clinton give the exact same speech in her doomed last weeks in the primaries. While it might help get things a little closer , it didnt save HRC and it wont save McCain. Get used to President Obama even if you dont like it.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:50 AM
Dem. 39 Rep. 30 Ind. 27 Other 5
Dem. 38 Rep. 28 Ind. 29 Other 5
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:54 AM
"This poll was taken on the 11th. McCain showed strong movement on the 12th."
The 12th was yesterday. What strong movement? The leaked Ras poll shows him with the same support as yesterday, while Zogby has him up 1 point (with 2.9% MOE for the entire three survey days).
Are we going to have another week of this nitwittery ...
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:55 AM
Rasmussen has been utterly transparent as to his methodology from the start. He has even slightly increased the Democrat Party Affiliation in the last 3 weeks.
There is nothing to indicate his polling is partisan. He just wants to be right.
John McCain has a HUGE HILL to climb to win this. His campaign, to this points, has been horrendous.
But Obama has enjoyed a bad economy with gushing praise on every level from the MSM for weeks. Yet his lead in razor-thin. It is fragile.
John McCain can now play as the underdog. He becomes the sympathetic figure. Obama is held under higher scrutiny and he better not make a single mistake.
During these last 3 weeks, the Republicans will unleash the "kitchen sink" on Obama. Anything they have will be made public. Obama must withstand that. If he can, he wins and America loses.
Hehe, Drudge has assured us an entertaining two days with his ridiculous spin! Now, when the numbers shift back upwards, all the little pubbie hearts will shatter as they realize that wavering 2-3% of McCain-leaning undecideds aren't going to be enough to get anywhere close to Obama.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:56 AM
Dem. 39 Rep. 30 Ind. 27 Other 5
Dem. 38 Rep. 28 Ind. 29 Other 5
Thanks for that. So they oversampled Dems by about 5. Typical. These kinds of rediculous polls only hurt Obama.
Posted on October 13, 2008 7:58 AM
Ras florida last week: obama 50, mac 47
'Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats and holds a fifteen point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 85% or Republicans'.
...does anyone really believe that if obama was winning more of his party and unaffiliated by 15 he would be only winning by 3?
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:02 AM
GWU unchanged at O51;M43
And that includes McCain's supposedly good night of the 12/10.
So your analytical response to that would be....?
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:03 AM
DEBUNKING THE ABC/WAPO POLL:
1. A 3-day poll with only 766 LV's? That is a small sample for a 3-day poll.
2. 10 point sampling advatange for Democrats, which is wrong.
3. Poll was taken through the 11th. The 9th and 10th were very strong for Obama.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:04 AM
The party ID they have is 9%, Ras' has them at 6%. Remember that Ras has "republican-house" effect.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:05 AM
the fact that ras informed drudge to help further the mac comeback narrative suggests he may be willing to do it again...does anyone have ras premium membership access to see how he is weighting the samples for states???
The fact of the matter is that the race has stabilized among registered voters from about 6 - 10 points. Among likely voters, McCain gobbles up some conservative undecideds and pulls in between 4-6.
It's all about GOTV now. With early voting and most decisions set in place, the campaign that worries about getting its people to the voting booth will win. The campaign that has Drudge spinning statistical noise in national trackers will win.
McCain has to find a way to counter Obama's GOTV or the final results will look a lot more like the Research 2000 tracker than the Zogby tracker.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:06 AM
Don't get too excited. All we have to do is wait a few days to see if you are wrong again. Basing your argument on one day of tracking polls is silly. Both Ras and Zogby have been in the same range during the past week. Gallup always swings 3-4 points depending on the day of the week and also switching to LV instead of RV as of yesterday.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:07 AM
Is that poll RV's or LV's? You can add 3 points to any poll for Obama amongst RV's.
Anyway, for the next 3 weeks, watch Rasmussen.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:08 AM
There was a slight dip yesterday...I am not a polling expert, but I wouldn't put my heart on polls conducted over a weekend, let alone a holiday weekend for most Americans.
Boom, I am sorry you have cancer. Best wishes for your health.
I'm sorry that should have read: "Anyone who has Drudge spinning statistical noise" will lose.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:11 AM
Boomshak, this was the Party weight of the ABC/WAPO poll that you didn't complain about back in Sept. Obama 47% McCain 49%
Dem. 35 Rep. 31 Ind. 31 Other 3
Dem. 36 Rep. 28 Ind. 32 Other 3
I don't recall you challenging the party ID or anything. I wander why....
OMG! OMG! OMG!
Obama just STEPPED IN IT!
On the campaign trail, a man asked Obama why he was going to raise taxes on him as a small business owner.
Here was Obama's answer:
"I am not trying to harm you personally, but I believe that when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody..."
Wow, just wow.
KARL MARX - "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need."
Obama just exposed his true motivation - wow.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:13 AM
Signifcantly, Obama on the back of the new ABC/WP +10% poll will announce a major new Economy Initiative this afternoon.
The last time ABC/WP had that kind of poll and with the campaigns internals McCain suspended his campaign.
This time McCain changes tack, portrays candour, leading up to the next debate with some kind of surprise stunt, no doubt, in mind. The "October Ambush"
The states polls today and tomorrow should give us more feel for where the electorate is at.
Obama is right. He is talking about a fair tax policy. It's not OMG OMG! He's said this many times on the campaign trail before.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:15 AM
Anyway, for the next 3 weeks, watch Rasmussen
Of course 3 weeks ago, we had to watch GWU. Then when Obama rose in that it was Ras. Unfortunately Obama took off in that, so then the one to watch was Gallup. Of course Gallup discredited itself by posting consistently high leads for Obama, so now we're back to Ras. (although with Gallup swapping to LV we could be back knocking on that door as well).
In a perverse way, I was hoping that Obama was going to take a tumble in the DailyKos/research 2000 poll, so we could all have the enjoyment of seeing Boom plant his flag there as well.... Pure entertainment Boom! Keep it coming!
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:18 AM
Did this nut really just post three OMGs?
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:19 AM
How do you feel about Obama's Marxist Comment about using the tax system to "spread the wealth around"?
Obama is a Marxist.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:20 AM
Boom, do you actually go out and experience real life or only crunch the immaginary numbers in your head? I have been out volunteering and the enthusiasm in Obama's camp is palpable. That means to me more than these flickering polls. Each time that McCain moves up one point or tow you "predict" the race tied by the weekend. I am expecting your today prediction...
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:24 AM
You don't even know what a Marxist is, stop using that term. You are delusional and grasping at staws, it is pathetic to watch.
Growing the middle-class is what empowers this country, don't believe me take a look at economic history. Look at the percentage of middle-class American's side-by-side with GDP by year.
BoomPalin you need to make an informed opinion instead of just an opinion.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:25 AM
I have nothing against you.
I have nothing against Marxists.
Obama certainly is no Marxist.
Many people believe that a progressive tax system is better overall for the economy than the regressive tax regime that we have had in the Bush years.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:27 AM
mysticlaker - thanks for the link. love 538!
boom, did you catch those odds?
oh, and please explain to me (i'm a little slow) how can Obama be up 20% right now in an electorate this polarized? If you account for the republicans who still give dubya a 25-30% approval rating and add the racist factor, you get exactly what 538 described as "Obama's ceiling". You ought to read that article, really.
Try to be objective here; I've seen you do this before a couple of times. We all know that the polling numbers are reflective of the demographics they sample, the age, gender and affiliation brackets. We agree on that. What we apparently do not agree on, is how much those weighings should reflect the 2000 numbers, 2004 numbers, 2006 numbers or the current registration demographics.
If you go with the most current numbers and even mitigate the Dem affiliations by 4-5 points, you get your Obama blowout that you so crave. DailyKos, ABC, etc.
If you take Ras, Battleground, etc. - the ones that either completely ignore current reality or make a symbolic nod to it, you STILL GET AN OBAMA WIN. By considerable margins.
The best measure, of course, is the state/EC analysis. That shows Obama getting >350 ECV's.
AGain, give or take, depending on who is counting.
Time will tell how badly McCain gets beaten.
The question is, why do you so CRAVE A BLOW OUT? At times it appears to me that you want McCain to be humiliated even worse than I do. And that just gets me jealous. I love you and all, but I don't want you in my happy place.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:37 AM
Obama will give you plenty of amminition either to support him or campaign against him on the economy this afternoon. I have no idea what he's going to come up with.
But it would appear that the British and Europeans have provided a huge fillip in cooperation to get the global economy settled including a framework for multilateral intervention. It should work this time, but there will be a fairly deep recession due to the recklessness that has taken place and the damage already done.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:39 AM
Is this the only National Poll with Obama under 50%?
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:42 AM
don't know if you caught it in the one of the weekend threads: Dept of Mat Sci, AZ Materials Lab.
OK, off to work to help stabilize our socialist economy. Till tonight,
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:46 AM
Take it easy everybody. Every weekend, the race narrows by one or two points, boomshak pretends it's the second coming, and by mid-week, Obama's further ahead than ever. All we're seeing is standard patterns in the polling.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:50 AM
Nice. Were you a researcher? Working on your thesis?
Have fun storming the castle, er saving the economy.
Posted on October 13, 2008 8:51 AM
Stick to your guns, Boomer. You'll have the last laugh.
Meanwhile, the Obama constotutional crisis story is going viral...can you spell October surprise?
Posted on October 13, 2008 9:34 AM
Not that this means a whole lot to the Republican electorate but Paul Krugman just won the Nobel Prize. He has repeatedly been on MSNBC's "Countdown" and is a liberal economist and big time Obama fan. That makes two Nobel Prize winners in Obama's arsenal (also Stigler of Univ of Chicago). If the country doesn't realize that Obama is attracting the most talented people in the country and that's what its going to take to get us out of this crisis then God help us. Congrats to Krugman!!!
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:00 AM
Krugman works for the NY Times and appears on MSNBC. Enough said.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:21 AM
Krugman was for Hillary before he was for Obama. Enough said.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:25 AM
Hold on to your seats folks, it's gonna be a bumpy ride!!!
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:27 AM
"Obama constotutional crisis"
What constitutional crisis are you referring to? That nutjob's lawsuit in PA alleging that Obama was born in Kenya and not Hawaii which is being trumpeted on obamacrimes.com? That's a 100% frivolous lawsuit and it will be thrown out. Berg -- the nutjob -- has a history of filing ridiculous lawsuits and wasting the time of courts.
If you actually believe the stuff he's spewing, I have one question for you: If Obama is falsely claiming he was born in Hawaii, why hasn't the state of Hawaii said anything about it? Obama has produced a birth certificate he claimed was provided by the state, after all, and there has been NO dispute from the state regarding its authenticity.
Seriously, that case is simply stupid and it'll be dismissed in due time -- hopefully with full costs being awarded to Obama and the DNC from Berg.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:37 AM
Boom- Who said this?
"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."
Hint: He's often attributed with the notion of "Free Market Capitalism".
Also do you realize that Teddy Roosevelt was a major proponent of the Progressive Income Tax after the Supreme Court repealed one in the 1890's? Roosevelt was the major advocate for the Constitutional Amendment that rescinded the Courts decision. Imagine that, not only Congress, but a majority of State legislatures ratified the Amendment.
All were obviously "Marxists".
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:45 AM
Apparently Obama could have been born on Mars so long as either parent was a U.S. citizen at the time of birth.
"On or after May 24, 1934, a child born outside the limits and jurisdiction of the United States, whose father or mother (or both) was a citizen of the United States at the time of the child's birth, would be considered a United States citizen provided that the U.S. citizen parent had resided in the United States prior to the birth of the child. The previous interpretation of "resided" continued to apply under the 1934 Statute. "
Why do they keep bringing this stuff up?
And another thing about the Berg v. Obama lawsuit. Despite the fact that the complaint's allegations are baseless for at least two reasons (Obama WAS born in Hawaii and his mother was a US citizen at the time of birth, thus giving him citizenship under the 1934 Statute), Berg will never have the infamy of being laughed out of court based on them.
Berg does not have standing to pursue the lawsuit. Voters do not have particularized harm -- the basis of standing -- to bring lawsuits against nominees for office. This is long-settled law and was the basis for dismissing a similar complaint against McCain earlier this year.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:05 AM
I hate to break it to you guys who want to believe that Obama isn't a citizen, but as pbcrunch has pointed out, as long as one of his parents is a citizen, he is a citizen, regardless of where he was born. He would have to officially renounced citizenship in order to be barred from the presidency. Also, if Obama isn't a citizen based on where he was born, neither is McCain. The reality is, both are citizens, and this is a desperate effort by Obama opponents to declare his candidacy unconstitutional.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:21 AM
Inside the numbers:
Obama leads East, South, Central and West (overall +4.3)
Obama leads by 17.8 with independents.
McCain with men +0.6
Obama with females +9.2
AA 6.2% undecided (89.6 for Obama)
Obama +24.7 with moderates
Zogby frequencies in some cases are inconsistent with 2004 exit poll data, and can account for reason why Obama lead is smaller than in other polls (R2K for example). In 2004 ideology was 21-45-34 (L-N-C). In 2004 gender was 46-54 (M-F).
AA at 11 is the same, 10 for Hispanic compares to 8 is 2004. Zogby has not made any adjustment for expected increase in AA.
Party ID in 2004 was 37-37-26.
Zogby has moved 1 point up for Dems and 1 point down for Reps but ideology remains very different. Gender at three points difference also would mean a slight uptick for Obama.
Finally, the 6.2% undecided AA. One has to figure almost all of that goes to Obama.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:47 AM
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