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US: Obama 48, McCain 44 (Zogby 10/11-14)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/11-14, 08; 1,210 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 48, McCain 44

 

Comments
Lechuguilla:

I don't believe it. I actually get to post a message at the beginning of a thread instead of at or near the end, after everyone has stopped reading. :)

My only comment pertains to daily "tracking" polls.

You might be interested to know that tracking polls are fairly new to Presidential elections. Back in the days of Reagan and Carter, and earlier, the "regular" polls were all that people had to get a sense of who was ahead and by how much.

Long before Rasmussen and Zogby, we had the CBS/NYT poll, the Lou Harris poll, the ABC/Post poll, the NBC/WSJ poll, and so on.

My point is that those polls did just fine, thank you, in giving us an accurate view of the election. Daily tracking was not needed.

So anyone who thinks that the CBS/Times poll, or any other "regular" poll showing Obama ahead by double digits to be unworthy of their consideration ... you're deluding yourself!

Those non-tracking polls are just as valid, if not more so, than the Zogby or Rasmussen daily trackers, if for no other reason than the older, non-tracking, polls have a much longer history of, and experience with, presidential polling.

Lech

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laguna_b:

These polls continue to make no sense......sometimes I feel like they are playing with us....

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Eternal:

They make alot more sense if you take a look at the pollster "house effect" analysis posted a few days ago. Zogby polls about 4.2 to the low side, R2000 about the same to the high side. (or did previously)

I would guess many would put the race at 7-8% right now.

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JFactor:

Yeah, Zogby has always been "on the low side". If Obama continues to lead three points or more in Zogby then he's in very good shape.
_________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Lechuguilla:

Trying to over analyze the internals of daily tracking polls is useless. It's garbage in, garbage out. What's the point of analyzing garbage?

Far better to go with one or two credible polls, thus discarding those that are not credible. I would argue that, for a variety of reasons, the Zogby polls are not credible.

Lech

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DCDemocrat:

Zogby is erratic. These are his numbers the last week-and-a-half:

Obama +3, +2, +3, +5, +4, +6, +4, +6, +4

All of these swings the last day are in the margin of error, but while Rasmussen sees the race unchanged for three weeks, Zogby weaves back and forth like a drunk walking down the street on Sunday morning at 2:00.

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boomshak:

DEAR MOONBATS:

This race is far closer than it has any right to be. McCain has run perhaps the worst campaign in the history of earth, yet Obama cannot put him away.

The reason?

America is a center/right country and Obama/Biden/Pelosi/Reid is about as left/left/left/left as you can go this side of Lenin/Marx.

With Obama, you have to take everything on faith, since he has no record of every delivering on the kinds of promises he is now making.

During the week before the election, the conservative tide always rises.

Obama's "spread the wealth around" comment, if McCain pounds that, will hurt Obama. It is pure Marxism.

This thing is a long way from in the bag.

P.S., Anyone who signed more than one voter registration for ACORN is now gonna be scared to death to vote lest they be caught in the act. This will depress turnout for Obama and frankly, it serves you right.

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boomshak:

WHY ACORN COSTS OBAMA VOTES:

Anyone who registered to vote through ACORN will now be paranoid to show up and vote lest they be accused of voter fraud.

ACORN's fraudulent activities will actually serve to depress Obama turnout.

Well done.

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carl29:

boomshak,

You have nothing to worry about, man!!!! You know that your guy his own his path to victory :-)!!!

*Start planning the party for election night :-)

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boomshak:

WHY WILL BARACK OBAMA NOT PRESENT HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

Barack Obama has posted his "Birth Certificate" on his website. However, the image there has changed 3 times. In other words, it's a fake.

Right now, Obama is being sued to produce his birth certificate and he is fighting it in court.

Why?

Why not just present it? What is the problem? Why leave this hanging out there?

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carl29:

Zogby numbers are just as stable as the other pollsters. Stability has being the word of the day from Ras, Gallup, and Zogby.

ZOGBY:

"Obama's lead in the poll has remained stable, drifting between 4 and 6 percentage points for the last week.

"'It's not over, but it's not moving a lot,' pollster John Zogby said. 'There does not seem to be a dramatic shift going on.'"

RASMUSSEN:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday once again shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the third straight day with identical numbers and the nineteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%"

GALLUP:

"As noted in Tuesday's report, between 50% and 52% of registered voters have favored Obama in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, the preferences of registered voters have, in fact, been quite stable, with Obama averaging a nine-point lead."
===========================================

"Stability" has replaced "fluidity." Remember when everyone said that the race was "fluid" now the word is "stable." Well, stable means preference hardening, which is a good thing for both candidates, especially the candidate who is up.

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DCDemocrat:

Boomshak:

My guess is that people that ACORN registered were not paying a lot of attention to who was registering them. People who feel they have a right to vote and who feel sufficiently motivated to vote will come to the polls without self-consciousness about who registered them.

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mac_1103:

WHY WILL BARACK OBAMA NOT PRESENT HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

Jesus H. Christ, this garbage is from JUNE! It was thoroughly debunked in August. You're the moonbat.

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

As for the race being "far closer than it has any right to be," don't you think that has just a little something to do with the fact that about 40% of the country will simply never vote for a Democrat under any circumstances? Just as there's a similar percentage who will never vote for a Republican? 2004 was closer than it had any right to be. Hell, Michael Dukakis got almost 46% of the popular vote.

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boomshak:

@mac_1103:

WHY WILL BARACK OBAMA NOT PRESENT HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

Jesus H. Christ, this garbage is from JUNE! It was thoroughly debunked in August. You're the moonbat.

That's nice. Why will he not represent his birth certificate in court? Why is he fighting it?

Debunked my ass.

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thoughtful:

The internals on this poll continue to show that the headline numbers are garbage.

I can not bring myself to go through the amount of what I consider to be basic errors in the model.

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boomshak:

Everyone knows that FactCheck.org is a Partisan Democrat Organization. There are no legal ramifications to presenting a FAKE birth certificate (easy to fake) to FactCheck.org.

However, presenting a fake in a court of law under oath? That's a different matter.

So, the question is, why won't the Obama Campaign present his birth certificate in a court of law?

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saywhat90:

honestly this is silly. if there is a lawsuit it would be easier to sue the hawaiian birth certificate auhtorities becasue they are the ones that have the actual certificate. when you get your birth certificate it a copy not the original. how do i know because i have my birth certificate. even if he did show it in court you would say it was a fake anyway. finally factcheck is not the one who look into it. politifact.com also said it is real. and bot factcheck and politifact are bot h bipartisan despite what you say. they have been equally tough on the candidates on both sides.

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zotz:

saywhat90-
Don't bother Boom with facts. He is constucting an artificial reality around himself.

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orange24:

@boomshak:
ACORN's fraudulent activities will actually serve to depress Obama turnout.

Absolutely right. You know what - we're still going to win in a landslide.

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huetdebd:

@boomshak

here is a link to factcheck.org that verifies obama was born in hawaii. photos of birth certicate and everthing.

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

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CAmatters:

Next thing you know, Boom will start shouting "kill him" or "he's and arab" - Obama's eligible. Move forward and start thinking about how to salvage a failed party strategy before 2016. And ACORN - puhleeese - do you really believe the good poeple in poverty are hearing any of your trash? They don't listen to Rush. Can't believe I even felt the need to respond to such idiocy.

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huetdebd:

@boomshak

of course you will only believe what you want to believe. you asked why he won't present his birth certificat in a court of law. why does he need to? no one has asked him to and you are making it up when you say he is fighting a court battle to avoid showing it. your not helping mccain by saying these things. you need swing voters and the swing voters get turned off by crazy.

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orange24:

@boomshak:
WHY WILL BARACK OBAMA NOT PRESENT HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

Ah, the cries of the truly desperate. OK, so if you don't believe the birth certificate, maybe you can believe the birth announcements in the Hawaii newspapers on the day of his birth. Or maybe you think that as he was born as you say in Kenya, that his parents thought - "Hey, our son will run for president in America some day. Let us send a false birth announcement to a newspaper in Hawaii so our son can be president of the United States in 2008."

You know, I respect you for stepping into the lions den and being the only red poster on a blue board. I like to go to conservative boards from time-to-time just to rile up the base. But, when you make lurching, desperate arguments like this, you just look like a dope.

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NorseSoccer:

@boomshak

Can you send me proof of this "lawsuit" to produce his birth certificate?

Show me these "3" birth certificates that Barack has show online. Or did he just post 3 different pictures of the SAME birth certificate? Or did the people who dislike him so intensely they are willing to lie (a la you) mock up another birth certificate and post that stating it was from Barack.

Can you prove to me that he HASN'T produced the birth certificate?

Truly pathetic.

Cause right now all you have for me is right wing media bias and lies.

Why can't you answer these questions? Cause I sure as frak know you can't.


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DTM:

Just an idle question:

What exactly would it look like for one Presidential candidate to be "putting away" another Presidential candidate as the election was approaching? And feel free to use any of the charts or tables available here at Pollster when giving your answer.

And now an idle thought:

By international standards, the United States is indeed a center-right country. But by international standards, Obama is a center-right politician.

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IdahoMike:

Boomer: Obama has a birth certificate. The good folks at factcheck.org have handled it and confirmed it is authentic.

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

More lies from the right. It would be really funny - all these lies - if there weren't so many people who fell for them.

"I heard he was an Arab" - LOL!!!

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IdahoMike:

Oops. I see now that by the time I registered to comment, no less than three others had debunked the birth certificate myth...

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pbcrunch:

OK, about the birth certificate thing...

If the Hawaiian birth certificate that Obama has been presenting IS fake, why hasn't the state of Hawaii said anything about it?

If you say anything to the effect of "the state of Hawaii is in the tank for Obama," you are a complete and total dumbass.

Also, he won't present it in a court of law for the simple reason that it won't help him win the case at this point. In the American legal system, you fight cases based on the law BEFORE the facts.

Seriously, if this is all you got, you're way beyond the point of grasping for straws.

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pbcrunch:

@Norsesoccer:

There is actually a lawsuit in the Eastern District of PA that's attempting to force Obama to resign from the presidential race because it alleges he was born in Kenya, his Hawaiian birth certificate is fake, etc. The guy pursuing it -- Berg -- is a freaking idiot of a lawyer who has a history of filing frivolous cases (if it was completely possible, he gives lawyers an even worse name). It was filed in August.

http://dockets.justia.com/docket/court-paedce/case_no-2:2008cv04083/case_id-281573/

It will be dismissed in due time. Unfortunately, even the most frivolous cases take a few months to get out of the system.

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drdr:

Now that the polls are so overwhelmingly unfavorable for McCain the conservative partisans are reduced to repeating lies about birth certificates? Can you please take this nonsense to some other forum so that we can discuss polling issues here?

In regards to Zogby, I remember Democrats clinging to Zogby in 2000 and 2004 when he showed more favorable Democratic results and all of the other pollsters showed Bush ahead. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Zogby is the last refuge of the lost cause.

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marctx:

WHO'S SIDE IS OBAMA ON???

The campaigns are sparring over comments by Rev. Jesse Jackson arguing that Barack Obama’s foreign policy will mean an end to “decades of putting Israel’s interests first.”

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cinnamonape:

Boomsh#t: Obama's birth certificate. Legitimate. And the original has been viewed by many people...including the folks at Snopes, and, more importantly...the Department od State...which repeatedly (since the 1960's) has issued Obama with a US passport specifically stating that he is a Natural Born American.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/birthcertificate.asp

However, NO ONE has apparently seen Trig Palin's birth certificate, and he isn't even listed on the Mat-Su hospital records as being born there/

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DTM:

The "sparring" over Jackson's comments involve the Obama Campaign noting Jackson doesn't speak for Obama and repudiating his claims, and the McCain Campaign trying to pin Jackson's comments on Obama anyway because it would be in their political interests if they could.

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cinnamonape:

As far as Obama's statement about progressive taxation being "Marxist" it was Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations that said

"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

Teddy Roosevelt supported "progressive taxation". Your lack of comprehension about the distinction between "progressive taxation" and Marxism simply shows how unqualified you are to comment on this site. Marxism is rule that eliminates the voting rights of the individuals that don't share one's ideology...creating a "dictatorship of the proletariat". That's precisely what the Republicans do when they try and deny the right to vote to poor and lower class citizens by "voter caging".

All you comments show is

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sotonightthatimightsee:

KEEP IT THIS CLOSE MACK, THEN COME IN FOR THE KILL!

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cinnamonape:

Boom asserts that Obama has never presented his birth certificate to anyone in a situation that has "consequences". In fact, he has. He's presented it to obtain a passport. Tghis was long before the time that computers existed to fake such documents.

Such an act would be a felony. Obama would not have been allowed to travel abroad, which, if you recall he recently has. He would be in jail...which if I may point out, he ISN'T.

The fact that people can sue someone else with harassing lawsuits is a fact in this country. Even if Obama presented his birth documents in court the harassers would claim that they are fake. They would assert that Obama has somehow manipulated the documents or the system. This would merely continue the doubts against all evidence to the contrary.

For thise who are extremist fanatics, who believe that Obama is a "Marxist", a Muslim, an "Arab", etc. no amount of evidence will ever be sufficient.

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cinnamonape:

MarcTx: Jesse Jackson was a Hillary supporter as I recall. Not an Obama supporter.

And who in the US actually believes that we should put "Israel first"...I always thought that in our nation we should put America's interests first. Sometimes that conforms with what Israel wants, sometimes not. And even in Israel there is debate about what acts are necessary to protect Israel's interests. There is a vast chasm between views on this.

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m913:

If we are talking about the cadidates' births, how about McCain? He was not born in the U.S. He was born in Panama. Is he even eligible to be POTUS?

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