10/15-17, 08; 1,209 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 44
Steady as she goes. And despite a little McCain "surge," these Zogby #s are better for Obama than exactly one week ago.
Today, "Obama will be campaigning in Missouri today, while McCain will sweep through North Carolina and Virginia. Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania."
I'm telling you, the McCain campaign thinks they need a PA miracle to win this thing. Very telling.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:18 AM
McCain should be living in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. What he's doing in PA I will never know.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:26 AM
I think the McCain campaign realizes that it's beyond a long shot that they are going to turn around every single 2004 Bush "swing" state where they are trailing right now. I guess they feel that swinging PA, with its 21 EVs, however unlikely, might be their best shot at a hail Mary miracle.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:30 AM
I calculated the weighting. Republicans have a higher party ID than
It is a simple 3 unknown, 3 equation.
Based on Zogby's data :
Obama gets 51% of I, 9% of R and 88% of D and his number is 48.3
McSame gets 35% of I, 91% of R and 12% of D and his number is 44.4
so we have
0.51*I + 0.09*R + 0.88 *D = 48.3 and 0.35*I + 0.91*R + 0.12*D = 44.4 and I + R + D = 100
Solve these three and you get:
D = 22%!!
R = 25.8%!!!!
I = 52.2%...
3% More Republicans than Democrats....
Rassmussen party id is
R: 33 D : 39 I : 28
Plug their party id (which is reasonable and based on 10,000 interviewes weekly)
in Zogby's results for Obama(88% DEM, 9% R and 51% I) and
McCain (12%DEM, 91% R amd 35% I) you get:
Obama : 51.6 McSame: 44.5
Very close to Gallups and Rassmussen's numbers...
Read this interesting article about why pollsters like Zogby would'nt mind
their numbers to be Whacky!
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:14 AM
I don't understand why McInsane is wasting his time in PA either. Also, supposedly, according to Morning Joe, he was in NY on Thurs? Seriously, why bother?
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:42 PM
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