Pollster.com

I have a hard time believing that Obama's supporters are less likely to vote than McCain's supporters. I think they are using a wonky formula.

Deeply flawed very small poll, who is the actual pollster?

Doesn't give anything like enough crosstabs to make an informed judgement either. Maybe someone else can see some quality.

Interesting that the NBC and CBS polls have it slightly closer than the daily tracking polls. And, in fact, NBC uses registered voters to get its Obama +6 (probably would be closer if they used likely voters)while CBS uses likely voters to get Obama +3. Are these polls picking up a tightening of the race that is not yet reflected in the daily tracking polls?

A 4 pt lead among registered voters seems reasonable. Any poll to keep Obama supporters energized and organized is a good thing. The last thing we need is complacency.

Paz,
It's hard to tell. A CNN poll released today of LV shows Obama +8.

I think you throw them all together and get around a +5 or +6 for Obama.

Great news for Mack and Palin!!!!!!!!

@sotonightthatimightsee:

I can't tell whether or not you're serious anymore... If you take solace in a 3 point poll (which happens to be the smallest lead) - good luck to you.

@sotonightthatimightsee

Even sadder is that you didn't read the details of the poll which said that Obmama had a 2:1 lead of those STRONG versus WEAK support....look for more to desert your sinking ship.
Further, Palin's incompetence for the job dominates the VP side by alomost the same ratio AFTER the debate.

Asinine. Newly registered voters are for Obama by 2:1. There's no way "likely" voters are going to close the gap for McCain.

to anyone that is getting giddy due to this poll.

A. its sad that a 3 point advantage for our guy would make you happy... that shows that you are in dire straights.

B. I love the way you guys pick and choose the polls you like. one day rassmussen is the poll we should follow, then its cbs, nbc, gallup... basically whichever looks the best for your candidate. luckily we have places like this and RCP to filter the polls... and sadly for the mccain fans, the RCP average of 6.2 is higher than its been post convention.

A national poll with 616 LV. The MOE has got to be wrong with such a small sample size. Why would they even bother publishing trash like this? Is CBS trying to develop their own narative?

"Are these polls picking up a tightening of the race that is not yet reflected in the daily tracking polls?"

That's not possible. Tracking polls would tighten before 3 day polls.

That darned CBS, bastion of conservative ideology. Maybe it's because they only gave you a 9% sampling advantage when 16 points works so much better for you.

Anyway, it's just one poll. Oh yeah there was the Democracy Corps poll and NBC was at +6 and Hotline was at +6.

Nah, ignore it. Means nothing.

Well, since the MSM has barely even reported on Ayers, Wright and Rezka, maybe people are just a bit concerned by hearing these things.

Maybe they also find it hard to believe that Obama had no idea who Ayers was when everyone in Chicago knew. Same thing with Wright, huh?

Obama is either a liar or a fool, and I don't think he is a fool.

Boom:
Do you know how ridiculous you sound when you try to prove Obama is +4 instead of +8 ? So what? If we were talking about who is ahead that would have made sense but argue over whether Obama is +4 or +8? Come on.

In many topics you are an excellent and respectable debater, but you are not good in interpreting polls or predicting numbers. Leave it. Stick to what you are good at.

Now the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows a tightening of the race: Obama 48% McCain 45%.

"Obama is leading among the key target groups, but this race is nowhere close to over," pollster John Zogby said. "The deal is far from closed."

http://www.reuters.com/article/sarahPalin/idUSTRE4961BK20081007?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10112

THREE NATIONAL POLLS TODAY 48-45 OBAMA:

That's 3 National Polls now that show this a 3 point race (48-45). DemCorps, CBS and Zogby.

Possible Reasons:

1) They are all flawed exactly the same way at the same time.
2) They are undersampling Democrats (no, CBS gives Dems a 9 point advantage).
3) During the debates, Palin had an emotional effect compared to Biden's cognitive effect. Emotional effects, although slower to appear, tend to last longer.
4) People are actually hearing about Ayers for the first time and they are saying "hmmmm".
5) They were willing to give Obama a chance when the economy looked dicey, but are nervous about someone who is untried if things are really bad.

Who knows. Maybe Obama peaked too soon and people are growing tired of his schtick.

OBAMA GROUND GAME? WHAT GROUND GAME?

We keep hearing about the AMAZING OBAMA GROUND GAME. Well, they had early same-day registration and voting in Ohio. You may have heard of it. Obama's "ground game" was supposed to deliver 10's of thousands of homeless and drug-addicts to the polls to vote for Obama.

Well, not so much. Yesterday, Ohio announced that only 3,000 people had taken advantage of the early registration/voting. State Election Officials, hoping they had illegally engineered an Obama win were SHOCKED, SHOCKED I tell you!

Lol, ground game my ass.

MORE ON THE REUTERS/CSPAN/ZOGBY POLL:

First of all this is no BS Internet Poll. This is a telephone tracking poll with 1,200 respondents over 3 days.

Reuters and CSPAN lean FAR left. I can't imagine they would have intentionally biased this towards McCain.

That's 3 left-leaning polls in one day saying this is a 3 point race.

@political_junki:

I predicted a statistical tie by Monday, once all 3 days of the VP Debate were in the tracking polls.

3 National Polls on Monday showed it a statistical tie.

PRIME MINISTER PELOSI?

There are some rumblings that McCain may present the idea that electing Obama will also be like making Pelosi Prime Minister.

Obama has NEVER stood up to his party's leadership on ANYTHING in 12 years. Will he stand up to the ultra-liberal Pelosi if he is POTUS?

Hint: People don't like Pelosi :)

But let's ignore that two of Obama's major bills, including his first one, were passed with Republicans, right? Spin boomy spin.

@boomshak

Why don't you talk about the CNN poll with Obama at 53-45?

Why don't you talk about the 175,000 absentee ballots requested in Ohio?
http://www.10tv.com/live/content/local/stories/2008/10/07/vote.html?sid=102

Why don't you talk about John McCain's shady dealings with Keating 5, U.S. Council for World Freedom, and Pastors Hagee, Parsley, Falwell and Robertson?

You can point to all of Obama's guilt by associations but you can't ignore McCain's.

@Boom:
You dont even understand what a statistical tie is :)

Boomshak would you shut the fuck up please...I am sick of you spewing your BS on one side or the other of a poll based on wether it benefits you are not...