10/16-18, 08; 1,211 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 45
Repubs can enjoy these fleeting moments of hope...
Obama's numbers for some reason go down over the weekend...I really think it's because Republicans stay home and basically sit on their phone.
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:59 AM
This is how you run a camoaign!
Obama raises ***150M***** in Sept :))
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:02 AM
O 51% (+1)
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:04 AM
Is it just me or does Zogby attempt (in his right up) to temper every obama gain and highlight every mccain bump?
Before Boomcrap or anyone trashes the daily Kos Poll what went unnoticed yesterday was they lowered their part ID for Dems by 5%. it is still a little high however it explains the change in their results.
Kile, where did you get that number for Rassmussen?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:05 AM
THE SCARIEST PART OF RECENT POOLS FOR OBAMARX:
Beside the amazing tightening of almost every tracking poll, it seems like the "late breakers" are breaking heavily towards McCain.
Don't act like this poll is an outlier either. It is right in between the Gallup expanded and traditional LV models (+4, +2)
Remember, these big names in independent polling (Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby) all have a strong interest in "getting this one right" after missing in NH so badly earlier this year.
Perhaps that is why Gallup is presenting 3 different numbers so he can say he was right on one of them, lol.
By election day, I expect all 3 of these polls to be within a point of each other.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:07 AM
Apparently Rass is moving up again, although I don't know where kyle get's his number.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:08 AM
Opps. I see where it is, Rass posted early today.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:09 AM
McCain surge all the way
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:10 AM
Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:11 AM
Rasmussen is reporting in such a tight range that one could easily attribute it to statistical noise. Obama shows up 50-51% and McCain shows up 45-46%. Thus the poll varies between O+4 and O+6.
Still, McCain is up against it with just a couple weeks to go. His campaign has been better of late. We'll see how it breaks.
Steady she goes...
With Ras number like these I can foresse McCain leading in a couple of days,
damn this white stuff smells so good!
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:12 AM
obama's tax plan mirrors clinton, and compared to McCain, there is only a 3% tax increase for the top two tiers...a marxist this does not make
so basically, obama can make mccain a "socialist" is he lowers the top tiers by 3%
further more, the tax system as it stands today is "socialist" because the top tiers get taxes at a higher rate...i.e. it's not a flat tax.
finally, was bill clinton a marxist/socialist?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:13 AM
boomshak, you do realize, that the steadiness of these numbers isnt a good thing for mccain, right?
I GET THE FEELING WE'RE BEING PREPARED FOR A MCCAIN SHOCKING WIN. THEY DIDN'T LET GORE WON IN 2000, DOES ANYONE REALLY THINK THEY'RE GONNA LET OBAMA WIN?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:14 AM
Zogby is a bit manic depressive with his so-called analysis, one day claiming a McCain surge and the next day saying Obama is staying strong. Zogby's mistake is that he puts too much emphasis on his one-day results, which tend to have a higher MOE and are more prone to statistical noise.
Still, McCain is up against it with just a couple weeks to go.
And if you project 1% of gain each week, what do you obtain? That McCain will win the elections in december!!!
I'm seriously worried
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:15 AM
Obama Surge ?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:16 AM
I realize that Obama ALWAYS polls better than he shows. This was true throughout the primaries.
A WORD ABOUT RASMUSSEN'S WEIGHTINGS:
He has increased the Dem Weighting to +6.7% up from +5.5% a month ago. This may be part of the cause of the 2 points Obama gained over last two days.
Who the hell knows. Tighht race - much tighter than it should be.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:18 AM
I don't see where dailykos lowered the dem ID "by 5%" ....35/26 split had been where this has been for the last few weeks...
am i wrong?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:19 AM
What about Ras boom? Are you dumping a good American for an un-American A-Rab Zogby?
The Rasmussen report was conducted entirely after the final debate, so not much change when it comes down to it. As Rasmussen summarizes: "Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-four straight days while McCain’s total has been between 44% and 46% during those days."
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:22 AM
i would not let my internal subjective experience convince me that mccain will win. yes, it's fearful that he will win, but if you stay logical about it, mccain has an extremely small chance...he has a chance, but it is very very small.
A study of the 32 Democratic primaries by two University of Washington professors found that Obama significantly underperformed his polls in three states (NH, California, and Rhode Island), and significantly overperformed (by at least seven points) his polls in twelve states, including battlegrounds such as Indiana, Virginia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Missouri.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:26 AM
boom: as you know, ras bases its weightings on over 20,000 interviews over a six week period. as we see a shift to democrats, and a sample over 6 weeks isnt very sensitive to changes, we could assume, if anything, that the actual change in favor of dems is understated.
There's no overt data to support the conclusion that Zogby is a businessman interested in his bottom line, but I am willing to bet in the last week, he is going to adjust his weighting to reflect early voting and go, "Oh! Oh! McCain crashes and burns!"
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:28 AM
On the subject of how close the race should be, see:
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:30 AM
DCDemocrat, looking at his history and the current weightings, I have that feeling too, we will see.
Only 16 days to go, and then its all over. Its OK now, we'll all walk you through the next couple of weeks. ;)
TO EVERYONE ELSE:
Please stop replying to his posts with rationality. Just tell him it'll be over soon.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:39 AM
Ras has it at O+6. Nice little 1 point bump. We'll take it at this late stage. Why does Ras report early on Sundays?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:40 AM
"The race is tightening"
"McCain is in the lead"
...are two separate things.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:42 AM
I'm almost certain that Zogby uses a 38-36 D/R split. That's even tigher than what TIPP uses. (I think they have Dems +4, 38-34). I don't think Dems have a 8-9 pt part ID advantage this year, but it's greater than +2...and that's why Zogby always shows this tighter.
Plus, look at his analysis...one day, Obama leads among indies by 5, then it's 16 the next day, then it's 8 the next. I'm sorry but this late in the game, you don't see crazy swings like this.
The swings in the Zogby poll are just too much. When you look at Rasmussen's internals, you see a much more stable race.
$150 Million, hows that for statistical noise
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:50 AM
Internals tell the story in this poll. You draw your conclusions. These are the key numbers.
Dems: Obama 88.4%, McCain 7.6%; Reps Obama 6%, McCain 89.8%, Independents Obama 46.2%, McCain 38.1% ... Among Independents - Nader receives 4.7%, Barr 1.8%, McKinney 3.2%, Other 2.1%, Undecided 4% ...
Already voted: Obama 63%, McCain 35.4%
Males: Obama 44.9%, McCain 46.8%; Females Obama 50.2%, McCain 43.7% ... frequency is m/f 49/51 (exit poll 2004 had m/f 46/54)
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:56 AM
I have all the internals.
The Party ID split is 38-36-26 (D-R-I). Zogby uses a methodology which appears to much closer to Gallup traditional which yesterday showed Obama +2, than Gallup Expanded which showed Obama +4, than Gallup (RV) which showed Obama +8. Bottom line is that with RV movement strongly favoring Dems is key states, that polls which discount RV, which Zogby does, underestimate strength of candidate associated with new RV momentum, in this case the Dems.
Also notable is that Zogby frequency for AA is identical to 2004. There is no assumption that race affinity would move this number.
Finally, inexplicable to me at least, is why Zogby weights gender as I posted above with 51% female where as in 2004 the split was 54% female. Again, this seems to me to suggest an an actual electorate which is consistent with census and not consistent with who will turn out on election day.
Be pleased to respond with specifics to pollsters on the internals from this poll.
Posted on October 19, 2008 9:10 AM
"Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago."
That means that Obama has 251 Electoral College votes from those states.
"However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163."
Let's see - 260 minus 251 equals 9, divided by 4 equals 2.25.
The minimum EC votes a state can have is three, so this shows that Rasmussen is definitely math challenged, at a minimum.
Posted on October 19, 2008 9:34 AM
To echo what vmval1 has to say here, and something I said a few days ago:
Please, please, please let us stop responding to boomshak. Period. End of sentence.
He is not here to talk in a meaningful way about the polls. Al Franken had a segment in one of his books about how Republican spin-meisters manage to a) incite liberals and b) get around logical arguments by using hyperbole and question words when they're discussing issues: Can it be that John McCain will be leading in all tracking polls by tomorrow morning. Is it possible that the race is all but over for Obama? No, it can't be. It's not possible. But you're never going to get through on those points to someone whose interest is not actual discussion, but inciting people he disagrees with and creating a false reality.
The ONLY way that boom is going to "go away" is if he is completely ignored - if all of us on the Dem side stop responding to his posts - whether they're about cherry picking good McCain poll numbers or ranting about why Obama will be disastrous on a day when there are no good poll numbers for McCain.
These message boards have become a pissing contest between 1 or 2 conservative baiters and everyone else. Let's stop that, never respond to boom or alankeyes again, and focus on a reality-based discussion of the polls.
Posted on October 19, 2008 9:43 AM
Now, to the polls:
I think there does seem to be some settling of the trackers on this 5-6 point lead, which I actually am comfortable with. Perhaps DKos will continue to be on the high side w/ 7 or 8 and this one on the low side with 3 or 4.
I had never expected that Obama would go into election day with an average +10 or +11 national lead, so I'm glad that now the movement has stalled, he remains up about 6. I think if this is the "natural resting place" of the race, he will be able to weather any blips down with some built-in good news days: (hopefully) the Powell endorsement today and the airtime on the 29th.
I also have a theory about how race would play into a 5 or 6 point national race (and I won't call it the Bradley Effect, because as Nate Silver, analysts from Pollster, and the manager of his opponent's campaign have stated, it is not as profound or easy to spot as the MSM has stated).
There seem to be two states where, with the nat'l race at 5-6 points, there could be a marked effect. White, rural, Catholic states like PA that might see a loss between polls and votes of 1-2% are too far ahead for Obama to lose. I think Ohio is the state where, on a tied day of polling (which is what Ohio is at +5 nationally) this might cost Obama the race.
However, I can tell you that what I expect to happen in North Carolina (also tied in polling at +5 nationally) will offset that. We have already had massive early vote turnout. Early vote turnout has been 36% African American. The entire NC electorate is 22% African American. I think the big shock on election night in a +5 (or even +4) last day of national polling will be that North Carolina turns blue.
Posted on October 19, 2008 9:55 AM
Pollster John Zogby said the numbers were good news for McCain, and probably reflected a bump following his appearance in the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday.
"For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened," Zogby said.
He said the Arizona senator appeared to have solidified his support with the Republican base -- where 9 out of 10 voters now back him -- and was also gaining ground among the independents who may play a decisive role in the November 4 election.
Obama's lead among independent voters dropped to 8 points on Sunday from 16 points a day earlier.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:15 PM
Again, sticking to analysis based on numbers not opinion, I have compared Zogby's sampling sizes by demographic subgroup to the exit poll from 2004. These are the differences available for gender and ideology. These disparities work for McCain and against Obama. By far the most striking difference between Zogby's sub-group sample sizes and the 2004 exit poll has to do with ideology.
Males: Zogby 49%, 2004 exit poll 46%
Females: Zogby 51%, 2004 exit poll 54%
Zogby Males: McCain leads by 1.9% (46.8% to 44.9%)
Zogby Females: Obama leads by 6.5% (50.2% to 43.7%)
Moderates: Zogby 26.5%, 2004 exit poll 45%
Conservatives: Zogby 46.6%, 2004 exit poll 34%
Zogby Moderates: Obama leads by 28.4% (60.9% to 32.5%)
Zogby Conservatives: McCain leads by 57.2% (75.1 % to 17.9%)
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:47 PM
Gallup refutes your assumption that debate three helped McCain, copied verbatim below:
"This is the first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on data collected entirely after Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate. McCain's current 42% support level is at the midpoint of the 41% to 43% range he has received over the past 18 days. Obama's 52% is at the upper end of the 48% to 52% range of support he has received over the same time period."
As to Zogby's statement regarding Independents, here are his numbers from the internals: Dems: Obama 88.4%, Reps McCain 89.8%, Independents Obama 46.2%, McCain 38.1%, the remaining other or undecided. McCain cannot win this election with only a 1 point advantage in base and an 8 point disadvantage in Independents. Very important to remember - Zogby is assuming the Party ID turnout will be essentially identical to 2004: Dems 38%, Reps 36% and Independents 26%.
Gallup advantage today for Obama among registered voters increased to 10.
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:01 PM
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