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US: Obama 48, McCain 46 (NBCWSJ-9/19-22)

Topics: PHome

NBC News / Wall Street Journal
9/19-22/08; 1,085 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(NBC story, results; WSJ story, results)

National
Obama 48, McCain 46
(9/8: Obama 47, McCain 46)

 

Comments
JFactor:

Suprisingly close. These polls are all over the place, pollsters are really having a hard time adjusting their methodology.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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falcon79:

oh look they used registered voters just like the fox news poll
lets see what the boom and gang say now :P

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marctx:

Stillow:

"I can just see it now, McCain back in DC talking about the economy and Obama debating an empty chair in his debate this Friday......the only question I have is, will he still lose the debate?"

I had to pass that one around my office! Obama couldn't beat an empty chair in a debate! Too funny! Listening SNL?

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thoughtful:

What a surprise!

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s.b.:

Now that should put the boots to ABC's ridiculous poll and Gary Langer absurd defence of a sample that has a 16% spread in Party id favouring Dems. Sorry ABC no way.

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Hope Reborn:

2% on election day is a landslide the way the electorial college is shapping up. This one is closer to the ground, while others like Fox and ABC are soaring.. Not sure what to think, but any way you cut it, Obama has an undeniable lead and is rapidly closing in on 50% nationally.

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LAWSON:

NBC POLLS IS WRONG OTHER POLLS HAVE OBAMA IS UP BY 6 IN FOX NEWS POLLS THAT SCARY AND 10 POINTS IN ABC POLLS

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s.b.:

These two news organizations are the most rabidly froth at the mouth Obama propagand machines, up there with the NYT. This poll is much closer to reality and is entirely believable as a poll.

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NW Patrick:

Great news all around today. Obama is up overall somewhere around 4% and if that held it would be a great victory in Nov.

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boomshak:

Again, this poll gives a 7 point advantage to Democrats. Although not horrible, it is 1.5 points higher than Rasmussen indicates.

Once again, race is close.

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Gallup: Obama +3
Ipsos: Obama +1
BG: McCain +2

Then you have your wacky outliers:
ABC/Post: Obama +9 (the poll I've heard about 300 times today on every news show)
FoxNews: Obama +6 (really weird sample with 16% undecided)
Hotline: Obama +6

So basically, It is either tied or Obama is kicking ass, take your pick, lol.

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Hope Reborn:

LA Times is up:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008sep25,0,4911734.story

Obama: 49%
MCCain: 45%

among likely voters...

Obama +2% among Registered voters.


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boomshak:

PEOPLE THERE IS SOMETHING TO REMEMBER HERE:

There are BIG OBAMA STATES like CA and NY where Obama is waaay ahead and that can be skewing this national polls badly.

In battlegroud states, it is clearly a toss-up.

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Hope Reborn:

@ boomshak:

I'm noticing the split alot too. It seems there are two types of polls right now:

Obama 4-9%
Obama/McCain within MOE

I think the key differences are in party weighting. But how will that affect Nov. 4th. I think Obama's resurgence on enthusiasm as well as robust ground game and bofo spending will push reality closer to the Obama 4-9% than Obama/McCain MOE% group, but only time will tell.

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douglasfactors:

boomshak:

Did you just say three out of seven polls are outliers?

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jamesia:

boomshak, you can't just pick the ones you like. The average is somewhere between all 7 polls that you listed, which is probably somewhere around Obama +4 or 5. The good thing about having many polls is that you can average them all together.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Ladies and gentleman, please do not panic, McCain still has a 25% shot at victory!

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BOOMFAIL:

You Tell 'em boomshak! Those crazy liberals over at Fox and their poll results showing Obama up by 6! I only believe the polls that show McCain leading like the Battleground Republican poll. lol

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thoughtful:

McCain needed to get the Polls out of the News Cycle. Destroy Obama's Big Mo

McCain is trying to postpone the VP Debate next Wednesday to give Sarah Palin longer to prepare. Instead to do first Presidential Debate then in stead of Friday

Unbelievable, Chutspah!

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JCK:

Boomshak,

I really don't think this one is tied. I know you love Rasmussen's party ID numbers, but I'm not yet convinced that they're some sort of magic gold standard. Again, if it were tied, you'd see an equal number of polls favoring McCain as Obama. Because you see a disproportion number of polls favoring Obama, the simplest conclusion is that he has a lead, probably of a few percentage points.

Do you define "outlier" as anything that gives Obama more than a 4 point lead? If your methodology results in discarding polls that just happen not to fit your view, then that seems pretty suspect in my book.

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Scott W:

HAHAHAHAHA. Now McCain wants to delay VP debate too? Not enought time to cram Palin with sound bytes? What a farce McCain is. It is time for retirement to one of your 9 houses.

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apologist42:

I would expect McCain's large leads in Texas and the collective Deep South/Plains States would counter any advantage Obama is seeing in CA and NY.

McCain should be concered about such a QUICK turnaround since two weeks ago. I expected Obama to gradually retake the lead, but he's blown past McCain for the most part.

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HaloFan:

scott...
that news is a lie

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slinky:

The thing is, either this Wall Street debacle is real or fake, and I certainly can't figure it out. The news keeps reporting that credit is impossible to get, but, I just read the real estate page in the NYTimes, and it's pretty clear that people are getting mortgages. So, maybe it's the bond market where credit has seized?

Anyway, one starts to wonder about Wall Streeters. We all know they are holding lots of bad debt and derivatives, but, we don't know how much, and we don't know how it's bundled, and frankly, there's alot more that we don't know than that we do know, which is about par for the Bush Administration.

So, I am likely to take anything anyone says about "facts" from this government, with a grain of salt.

Thus, it becomes clear that the McCain call for postponing or canceling debate is a long-shot effort to 'best' Obama by changing the rules of the game, as best he can.

And, that's also about par for this administration, and its continuers (of course, the new decider will be a continuer).

So, here's my point: Either this is financial Armageddon, or it's not. If it is, $ 700 billion of unrestrained spending by Treasury won't stop it. If it isn't. Well... It probably isn't.

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Hope Reborn:

@ boomshak:

I'm noticing the split alot too. It seems there are two types of polls right now:

Obama 4-9%
Obama/McCain within MOE

I think the key differences are in party weighting. But how will that affect Nov. 4th. I think Obama's resurgence on enthusiasm as well as robust ground game and bofo spending will push reality closer to the Obama 4-9% than Obama/McCain MOE% group, but only time will tell.

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NW Patrick:

No one can deny this was a VERY bad day for McCain in the state and national polls. Colorado Colorado Colorado.

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kerrchdavis:

GOT BOOMAID?

9 National polls today showing Obama leading from 1-9 points and this moron says its tied.

Go back to kindergarten.

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tjampel:

Tracking Polls should be compared with tracking polls. There are 4 true tracking polls.

O+4 (weighted down to 20% by me)
O+6 (weighted down to 20% by me)
O+3 (weighted at 30%)
O+2 (weighted at 30%)

Avg: 3.5

Averaging all the others in one lump sum (without playing any favorites)

Post O+9
Fox O+6
LA TImes O+4
WSJ/NBC O+2
Battleground M+2
Ipsos O+1

Avg: 3.3

If MOE is actually 4 overall we expect a maximum spread of 8 between the candidates between one poll and another.

I think the best course of action is to drop the high and low poll here ( O +9 and M +2)
Note that this doesn't change the result at all...you get 3.25

Ignore all this data at your own risk. For me and others who actually believe that polling is meaningful no matter whether you love the outcome or it sends you reaching for your Lexipro, it's pretty clear that the trend is upwards for Obama at the moment, and the probable margin is 3.4 or thereabouts, going onto the debate. This number is very hard to overcome in a debate, as Nate pointed out yesterday on his site.

For anyone to suggest that this race is deadlocked suggests that they inhabit the 51st state....the state of Denial.

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laguna_b:

Why not postpone the debates until mid-November when people have more time to watch?

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laguna_b:

Why not postpone the debates until mid-November when people have more time to watch? (especially Mccain/Palin)

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nick-socal:

Slinky, Here's what it is. It's the largest 'stick up' in the history of the world. These guys know that it won't go any good. Look at the players: Paulson and Bernanke, they have no clue. What they do know is they can pull a stick 'em up at the Congress and ask for $700 billion with no questions. Knowing the negotiate down from there. So they end up with $400 billion for their cronies (Paulson was the CEO of Goldman Sachs and has 700 million worth of stock). Then in 6 weeks after the election, they are gone and the financial meltdown really occurs. Does anyone really think this will bail out the banks? It didn't for Hoover in the early '30s and it won't now. All they need to do is buy themselves 6 weeks so they can get out of town with their biggest heist in history.

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Stillow:

If Obama has to debate himself, will he still have 115 seconds of uhhhh's in a 120 second response?

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NW Patrick:

In 2004 Real Clear Politics average of the polls has Bush up just under 2% and look what happened. I'll take a 3-4% lead in the national with Kerry states, CO, IA, and NM lookin' good.

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carl29:

The first thing a leader does is to come foward before his or her people, explain the situation, and lay out the plan to solve it. Hello...the majority of Americans don't have an idea as to what is the government going to do with $700B of our money. We deserve explanations sir...the problem is that McCain can't talk about the economy, and how to avoid the #1 issue when facing the American people?

We choose presidents no appoint dictators. We deserve being told what the government is planning on doing with OUR $700B. Bush will leave on January but the debt is not going away my friend. I am 30 years of age, so if statistics work on my side, I will be around for about 40 more years, paying for Bush's "plan." How about my two children? Oh yeah..they are leaving anybody off the hook my friend. Do I deserve explanations? YES I DO. Do I deserve to know what my government is getting me into? YES I DO. I want a real leader who looks at me in the eye and tell me what is going on and what his plan is to solve the problem. Don't I deserve that? YES I DO!!!

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kerrchdavis:

@stillow

"If Obama has to debate himself, will he still have 115 seconds of uhhhh's in a 120 second response?"

If that's all you McChicken lovers have left, this really is going to be a landslide.

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slinky:

nick,

I think you are wrong about Bernanke. I know someone who's know him since he's a little kid, and he is not prone to stick-ups.

There is actually a problem. I just don't know what it is, and neither does Bernanke. Paulson is maybe a stick-up artist; and we all know that the only time Bush acts is when he doesn't understand what's happening.

The problem is apparently that there's a bunch of worthless paper out there, and the Wall Streeters need to get rid of it.

So, yes, I suppose we will need to help them get rid of it (proof positive that free markets that are unrestrained don't work).

However, our reps. need to set the terms by which the Street can get rid of their bad paper.

Not the other way around.

I would get Paulson out of the equation immediately. He's contaminated.

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Stillow:

@kerrchdavis:

No but its definatley funny!! McCain has wanted town hall debates for a long time now, Obama backed down everytime the challenge was issued. McCain is not afraid to debate Obama I assure you. "uhhhhhh, ahhhhhh"....heh I cannot wait to see it!

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slinky:

PS - We are in a recession, if you hadn't figured that out -- even if the technical definition of 2 consecutive quarters of net negative GDP ain't been met.

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marctx:

I want to see how Obama is going explain why it was McCain that went to washington to break the partisan gridlock and get a bailout bill passed. Well, at least he'll get a lot of debate practice instead.

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s.b.:

LA Times Bloomberg that usually favours obama has him at +4. The ABC news poll is total garbage.

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slinky:

if you watch cspan2, you can understand alot
(even without knowing people that know Bernanke).

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Save US:

Stillow:

You republicans don't have much room to talk with Bush... He is as well spoken as a 3 year old...

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NW Patrick:

marctx dreamin' again. You should see some of these internet polls. Also Survey USA did a phone poll already of 1000 participants. Something like 80-90 percent on these surveys say MCCAIN DEBATE! HAHA

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slinky:

mccain isn't a big player in the debate; it doesn't really matter whether he's there or not. McCain is currently being sloshed by Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) who talks about bills sponsored by him and Obama that McCain killed because the dems were against offshoring jobs, while the Repubs. were shoving such bills through.

You gotta remember, McCainsians, that your guy has been anti-american worker and anti-regulation for years and years and years.

Eventually, even Republican middle classers will get that McCain is their man only after they make it to the top income brackets. Right now, he's not their man. I think Churchill was right about Americans.

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NW Patrick:

The FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM with this McCain tactic is he's losing the TRUST of the American people. They see it as political.

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kerrchdavis:

@marc

yup, real presidential.

SurveyUSA. 9/24. Adults. MoE 3.2% (No trend lines)

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled to take place in two days. Should the debate be held as scheduled? Should the debate be held, but the format changed to focus on the economy? Or, should the debate be postponed?

Hold as scheduled 50
Hold with focus on economy 36
Postpone 10


Is the right response to the turmoil on Wall Street to suspend the campaigns for president? To continue the campaigns as though there is no crisis? Or, to re-focus the campaigns with a unique emphasis on the turmoil on Wall Street?

Suspend 14
Continue 31
Refocus the campaign 48


If Friday's presidential debate does not take place, would that be good for America? Bad for America? Or would it make no difference?

Good for America 14
Bad for America 46
No difference 35

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carl29:

"I want to see how Obama is going explain why it was McCain that went to washington to break the partisan gridlock and get a bailout bill passed."

I want to see how McCain explains to the American people why he couldn't face us and explain to us what was the problem and what his plan to solve it was. How will McCain explain why he doesn't believe that the American people deserve that their leaders tell them where they are getting us into...why we don't deserve being told what the government is planning on doing with OUR MONEY, $700B of OUR money. We elect presidents; we do not appoint dictators who think that their people should shut up and don't ask question. I deserve answer; indeed, I demand answer my friend. That money is mine, not Bush's, Obama's, or McCain's. Tell me why and how you are going to use MY MONEY .

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kerrchdavis:

wow, what he TRIED to do this morning is NOT being received well by Americans.

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Stillow:

@Save US:

I am not a republican, but nice try...I am a conservative...and Bush is no conservative!

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KipTin:

So what kind of credibility does Sherrod Brown have when he has only been in the Senate since January 2007? How many bills could Obama have sponsored since he has been campaigning since February 2007? Brown is just mouthing Obama campaign talking points.

McCain is not anti-American worker, but rather Free Trade. And I live in a state whose economy is tied to trade and thus generates many many American jobs.


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kerrchdavis:

@stillow

and what does that make a person that votes with Bush 90% of the time?

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kerrchdavis:

@carl

Well said, my friend.

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KipTin:

Hmmm. Obama voted with Democrats 95% time. And when he chose to not do so he voted for the Bush/Cheney energy policy. It's all in the details, init?

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MB1122:

What PRECISELY is McCain gonna do when he gets back to DC to an empty building on Friday night?

Please.

Obama said exactly what he should have and exactly what the American people are thinking re: this fake choice of 'debate vs. having meetings about the crisis' -

why can't you do both John?

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KipTin:

Actually, Obama is only doing ONE thing. He plans to got to the debate.

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kerrchdavis:

@KipTin

you're missing the point. I am a liberal so of course I like the fact that Obama votes very liberally.

Many of you hate Bush but want to vote for his balding twin brother with bad teeth. Different person, same policies.

Explain your logic.

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metsmets:

@marctx
It isn't "partisan gridlock", as I hear it. It is a bunch of Republicans who don't want to vote for this President's plan. THe Democrats aren't going to vote for it either unless the Republicans back their own President. They read the emails from back home. Show me a poll that indicates the American public wants this bailou, anyway?

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boomshak:

IN NEW NPR BATTLEGROUND POLL:

NPR just did Battleground Poll of 14 states. McCain leads by 2.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94973392

Sorry Obamanation.

P.S., NPR is as liberal as it gets.

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boomshak:

You know, there just seems to be a MASSIVE CONTRADICTION of polling here. I mean 12 point spreads in State Polls, 11 point spreads in national Polls.

The common thread here seems to be manipulation of the party weighting sample.

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carl29:

WE THE PEOPLE!!!! I totally agree with Barack that the American people deserve to know what their government is going to do with their money. It is time for our "leaders" to grow a "pair" and face us, our fury, and take the heat for the mess they have done. Don't hide cowards. Don't treat me like a child. This reminds me of my husband and I telling our kids to put their shoes on and come with us, without telling them where we're going. I am not a little girl and the government is NOT my father. It is: WE THE PEOPLE. We are the "bosses," no the other way around.

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boomshak:

You know, I just averaged all of the national polls on RCP (9 of them), and the FoxNews Poll is 6 points under the average for McCain.

Something is messed up with that poll.

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boomshak:

MORE NEWS FROM NPR BATTLEGROUND POLL:

Democratic party advantage shrinks to just 2 points in battlegtound states! (Compare this to the 10 point bs from Gallup):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94973392

"Since the polling team last surveyed likely voters in August, a lot has changed. The number of battleground states has shrunk — from 19 to 14 — as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana returned to their Republican roots.

In August, Obama led in the 14 states by 3 points. Now McCain leads in those states by 2, and the underlying political landscape has shifted a bit as well.

In August, by a 7-point margin, more voters identified themselves as Democrats. Now, in the battleground states, the Democratic advantage in party identification has shrunk to 2 points."

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kerrchdavis:

@boomaid

on the 18th and 20th? As you would say: OLD!

FAIL!

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boomshak:

THIS POLL SHOWS MCCAIN SURGIN AMONGST INDEPENDENTS:

"The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago. In early September, just after both parties' conventions, half of independent voters had a positive image of Sen. Obama; now it's just 39%. Independents were also less likely to say they could identify with his background and values than they were in early September.

And nearly half of all voters — 45% — said they think that Sen. Obama would raise taxes on middle-income people, even though he has promised not to, a sign that Sen. McCain's attacks on taxes are working."

This is the EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT OTER POLLS SAID TODAY.

God these polls are NUTS!

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laguna_b:

Actually I, an Obama enthusiast, posted the npr data earlier. I felt that we need to be aware of ALL polls that point to our country going down the toilet so as to be vigilant and not stop because most of them favor us. The nation has too much to lose. Just add up the toll from the past 8 years and you can see. Polls are inherently inaccurate if the all point strongly in different directions...

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boomshak:

"The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago."

I believe it was the ASBC poll that showed Obama surging like 17 points amongst Independents.

So which is it?

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slinky:

Of course the vote is still tight.

But, McCain is still trying sleaze to get it to go his way.

Americans will catch on (I hope).

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Stillow:

Someone bet me $1,000 that Obama boots Biden........Biden is gonna go!

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carl29:

WE THE PEOPLE!!!! I totally agree with Barack that the American people deserve to know what their government is going to do with their money. It is time for our "leaders" to grow a "pair" and face us, our fury, and take the heat for the mess they have done. Don't hide cowards. Don't treat me like a child. This reminds me of my husband and I telling our kids to put their shoes on and come with us, without telling them where we're going. I am not a little girl and the government is NOT my father. It is: WE THE PEOPLE. We are the "bosses," no the other way around.

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Stillow:

@carl29

Most people in this country cannot tell you who the Vice President is......they cannot find Russia on a map....if hte people want to be the boss, maybe they should actually try and be smart..................

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NW Patrick:

Boom takes the ONE FREAKIN' POLL OUT of 10 LOL that has a 2% DEM advantage which is NUTS in this climate and finds the SILVER LINING. Buddy I feel kinda bad for you. This election is all but over. I know no one wants me to say that but the odds are against ya bud!

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Eternal:

I'm not going to disparage the poll other than to say I'm happy to be 2 points up with only 11% AA.

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Robi:

Stillow:

Yes...and why is Sarah Palin VP then??

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NW Patrick:

What a great couple days for PRESIDENT Obama.

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 1085 RV 48 46 Obama +2
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/19 - 09/22 838 LV 49 45 Obama +4
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 2740 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Rasmussen Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 3000 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/21 - 09/23 903 RV 48 42 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 09/19 - 09/22 780 LV 52 43 Obama +9
Ipsos-McClatchy 09/18 - 09/22 923 RV 44 43 Obama +1
Battleground Tracking 09/17 - 09/23 800 LV 46 48 McCain +2
CNN/Opinion Research 09/19 - 09/21 697 LV 51 47 Obama +4

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carl29:

Maybe the American people don't care about who the vice-president is, but about where our money, $700BILLION of it, is going, I bet the entire farm my friend that Americans care a great deal about that. If there is an area where this country is more conservative than anything is with regards to MONEY, MONEY, MONEY.

Wow...couldn't you come up with a better excuse?

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Robi:

Thanks NX Patrick for jinxing the election...

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laguna_b:

Suspending campaigns is common: Hillary finally did it, Mitt did it, Guiliani did it...why fuss? It just means that the otherside won and you are tacitly admitting it.

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Robi:

NICE

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carl29:

Hillarious!!! Now, the McCain campaign wants to delay Biden vs. Palin debate. Don't you smell fear, guys? OMG!!! These are the same people who are asking us to let them lead our nation, in good or bad, calm or crisis. They don't even have answers to offer, don't know what to say :-)

*Thank God that we got to see their "leadership skills" before casting our votes.

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Stillow:

@carl29

Again your nutso...McCain nearly begged Obama to engage in town hall debates....McCain would love to debate Obama...especially since there won't be any teleprompters for Obama to read speeches someone else wrote for him....keep tricking yourselves....it'll be a bigger fall when the time comes...

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pion:

@Stillow (and other conservatives): You say you are a conservative. I would like to know what you mean by this. As a contrast, check out this commentary from a former publisher of National Review, the journal founded by William F. Buckley:

http://www.dmagazine.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?nm=Core+Pages&type=gen&mod=Core+Pages&tier=3&gid=B33A5C6E2CF04C9596A3EF81822D9F8E

Thank you in advance.

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vmval1:

This will play in McCain's favour. He's not going to be at the debate, he'll avoid the VP debate and finally, if a resolution is reached tomorrow/over the weekend, he'll get credit for it.

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Napoleon Complex:

Wish I could take credit for this, but here's Letterman's take on McCain suspending his campaign:

"What are you going to do if you're elected and things get tough? Suspend being president? We've got a guy like that now!"


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carl29:

Stillow,

Your answer doesn't give me a reason why I, as an American, don't deserve that my leaders tell me why and how X or Y is going to be done. Neither Obama nor McCain owe each other anything, but as public servants, they OWE the American people an explanation and a plan to solve it. When America is going through a crisis we want our leaders to tell us what the crisis is and how he or she is going to solve it.

McCain/Palin: Not ready to face the American people, but ready to lead?

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pion:

@vmval1: I don't think this will play in McCain's favor.

In many ways, this shows the difference between McCain and Obama:

1) McCain is impulsive. Obama is measured.

2) McCain claims credit he doesn't deserve (if he does indeed claim credit for the bailout package passing---no one will be fooled). This is not a good quality in a leader because it fosters resentment. Obama does not have that flaw.

3) McCain is unable to do many things at once. Obama can multitask.

4) McCain will risk jeopardizing the negotiations over the bailout to score a political point. Obama resisted that temptation and displays the kind of integrity we need after 8 years of GWB.

This does not make McCain look good, it makes him look desperate.

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Stillow:

@carl29

Uhhh, he isn't cancelling the debate, he wants to suspend it til a later date...he and Obama are still US Senators and have a responsibility to address the crisis at hand right now....Mccain wants to go hammer out a solution to this mess with obama's help mind you....then the campaign can continue....i see nothing wrong with htis...after all my tax money is still payign there salaries, maybe its good if they actually went to work and come up with something to address the current situation...geeeez....

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zotz:

pion-
National Review? William Buckley? PBS?
I think you don't know who Stillow is.

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carl29:

The crisis is now or later? If the crisis is now, now I deserve to know about it.. NOW, not after the fact my friend. How does it come that the government is going to do with MY MONEY whatever they want, without me knowing it? DARN!!! That's OUR MONEY, $700BILLIONS of it.

It is time for our "leaders" to grow a "pair" and face us, our fury, and take the heat for the mess they have done. Don't hide cowards. Don't treat me like a child. I am not a little girl and the government is NOT my father. It is: WE THE PEOPLE. We are the "bosses," no the other way around.

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Stillow:

@carl29

We will all be here when you return from la la land.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

Your man is playing politics, pure and simple. Changed the news cycles a weal ago fundametally sound so what has changed?

Interview with Katie Couric was a joke!

MSM is Republican leaning this is the reporter who had an anaswer to one question edited in to place a huge gaffe answer to the actual question.

No wonder we went to war on lies!

McCain is a liar and chancer not a maverick!

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fed:

More bad news for McCain....check out the suvey us poll on McCains stunt

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Stillow:

@zotz

I'm just one of those right wing nuts who always stand i nthe way of your socialization plans for America....its annoying I know, but unless Liberals outlaw us which they might do, we will always be here. Our uneducated minds forever trying to engage with the highly enlightened liberals and there visions of a socialist utopia!

Please Mr. G'ment, may I have my bread today?

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carl29:

My point is so good that you just can't come up with a good argument :-)

My point is the American way....Our leaders OWE answers to us. We elect presidents/leaders; we don't appoint dictators to tell us to shut up and don't question their actions. No my friend...this is America. This is the American way.

McCain/Palin: Not ready to face the American people, but ready to lead?

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

See after all that progress we wer emaking on agreeing...you go and say soemthing foolish liek the MSM leans Republican.........and the sky is purple and chickens lay golden eggs too....I know, I know.

____________________

zotz:

I'm sorry Stillow. I don't like elitists either. But if I need heart surgery I will make an exception.

____________________

pion:

@Stillow: "he and Obama are still US Senators and have a responsibility to address the crisis at hand right now"

They have both been addressing this issue:

1) According to the articles written since the meltdown started, they have been in regular communication with all the key individuals (Bernanke, Paulson, and key senators) I would be really surprised if they were not both coordinating their parties negotiations in conjunction with the other party leaders.

2) They both prepared plans that were similar to use as guidelines to the bail-out

You also say: "Mccain wants to go hammer out a solution to this mess with obama's help mind you" If Obama had pulled a stunt like that I would be quite annoyed.

1) The congress is converging on a deal with a lot of bi-partisanship.

2) It's pretty obvious that infusing this process with presidential politics is a bad idea, since one party may dig in its heels to avoid giving credit to the other party's nominee.

You also say: "then the campaign can continue"

This is part of McCain's campaign.

You also say: "i see nothing wrong with htis" Well I do, because that's not the only issue I care about as a voter. I would also like to point out that the financial debacle is also a foreign policy issue and it would be nice to see the two senators side by side discussing the implications for the global markets and the wars.

____________________

fed:

America’s First Reaction: Friday’s McCain-Obama Debate Should Still Be Held On Friday, But Perhaps With New Focus
SurveyUSA Breaking News -

Immediately after John McCain’s announcement 3 pm ET today, Wednesday 09/24/08, that he was suspending his campaign and seeking to postpone Friday’s schedule presidential debate, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide. Key findings:

A majority of Americans say the debate should be held. Just 10% say the debate should be postponed. A sizable percentage of Americans, 36%, think the focus of the debate should be modified to focus more on the economy. 3 of 4 Americans say the presidential campaign should continue. Just 14% say the presidential campaign should be suspended. If Friday’s debate does not take place 46% of Americans say that would be bad for America.

This survey was completed in middle of unprecedented and fast-changing news events. This survey should be viewed as a freeze-frame snapshot of public opinion at a unique moment in American history. Opinions can and should be expected to change as news events unfold. SurveyUSA did not characterize Senator McCain’s comments nor Senator Obama’s comments in any way in the research questionnaire.

____________________

thoughtful:

@stillow
Obama wins with:
Kerry States = IA + NM + CO That's why mCain pulled his desperate stunt today:

3 Colorado polls today:

RCP Average 09/14 - 09/23 -- 50.2 44.8 Obama +5.4
1.CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 794 LV 51 47 Obama +4
2.Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 700 LV 50 47 Obama +3
3.InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1418 LV 49 45 Obama +4

See All Colorado: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

____________________

Stillow:

@carl29

No my freind, your argument is so incredibly lame its difficult to formulate a response. I see nothing wrong with Obama and McCain delaying a debate for a week or so why they actually go do what we pay them to do......solve problems and govern....talk is cheap, how about some action for once? Like sitting down and figuring this mess out. McCain said he wants house and senate leaders, himself and obama to sit down and figure out a plan of action, get it done, then go back to hte campaign.....ya know, that thing called governing....the thing they are supposed to do? Get off your high horse and demand the same, some action......talk is talk...we will see the debate, several of them, more if Obama didn't chicken out of the town halls, but we will see them...right now I want action, not empty words....Obama should put country first for once, go to DC with mccain, sit down and figure something out. Otherwise I'd like my money back please.

____________________

boomshak:

@pion:

Obama wants to talk and issue joint resolutions, McCain wants to take action and solve the problem.

What Obama supporters call "thoughtful and measured action" most people would call "inability to make tough choices under pressure".

McCain can obviosuly do many thinsg at once, however, it is clear Obama does not get the gravity of the situation.

HERE IS WHAT MCCAIN SHOULD SAY:

"Yes, I could watch a football game while my child is being born, but some things require one's undivided attention..."

____________________

metsmets:

Battleground Tracking Poll:

FAIL FAIL FAIL

I looked at the US Census numbers for voters in 2004 by age (US): (Battleground Poll)

18-34 27.9% (22% in poll sample)
35-55 38.7% (35% in poll sample)
55+ 33.4% (40% in poll sample)

You sample more elderly people and ignore the youth vote!!

This is how you get McCain a +2 pts!!!

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat is liking this poll. But did boomshat see the other polls released by NBC today?

- Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain up 11)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama up 9, and over 50%)
- West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain up 4)

One red state last election turning blue; two states that McLame(brain) is targeting staying blue; and two red states last election that are less red this cycle than in 2004 (Montana went 59-38 Bush; West Virginia went 56-43 for Bush).

Good news all around wouldn't you say boomshat?

____________________

Stillow:

@zotz

Did you want that heart surgory from a highly trained professional or your g'ment appointed doctor??

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Correction - In Michigan, Obama is up FIVE, not 4.

____________________

vmval1:

@pion:

@vmval1: I don't think this will play in McCain's favor.

In many ways, this shows the difference between McCain and Obama:

1) McCain is impulsive. Obama is measured.

2) McCain claims credit he doesn't deserve (if he does indeed claim credit for the bailout package passing---no one will be fooled). This is not a good quality in a leader because it fosters resentment. Obama does not have that flaw.

3) McCain is unable to do many things at once. Obama can multitask.

4) McCain will risk jeopardizing the negotiations over the bailout to score a political point. Obama resisted that temptation and displays the kind of integrity we need after 8 years of GWB.

This does not make McCain look good, it makes him look desperate.


I couldn't agree more with you. However, I don't think that's the way it will be portrayed. FOX is the most watched news channel on the air, and they are making him sound like a white knight in armor going to washington to slay the evil dragon.

I have a REALLY bad feeling about this. Only time will tell, but I really wouldn'be surprised to see a bounce for McCain after tonight.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

What did I tell you weeks ago? Even when mccain pulled ahead, its no big deal, polls change like the wind, everyday....if you want to put all your hopes on polls, thats ok with me, but don't cry when your guy loses....polls shift.....attitudes shift, obama ahead, mccain ahead, its different everyday....

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

We agree again!

____________________

carl29:

First of all, what is that "plan"? Have you heard Obama or McCain talk about such plan? Do they believe that such plan is the best idea? How much money is that going to cost me? Can Obama or McCain come up with another plan, an idea of their own? What will they do to keep this from happening again?

Second, face me like a MAN, and treat me like a WOMAN, no a little girl.

The fist thing you do as a manager in a crisis is to calm the public/clients with good, reliable information, and second come up with a plan, the fastest the better my friend. If Mitt Romney were in McCain's ticket, other picture it will be in the McCain camp.

I DESERVE TO KNOW, I WANT EXPLANATIONS, I DEMAND TO KNOW. That's my MONEY, my friend. This is the American way. The government is not going to send me to the corner and tell me to shut up.

McCain/Palin: Not ready to face the American people, but ready to lead?

____________________

boomshak:

HERE IS WHAT MCCAIN SHOULD SAY:

"Yes, I could watch a football game while my child is being born, but some things require one's undivided attention.

I'm sorry that Senator Obama doesn't believe the future of America's economy deserves his undivided attention, but I do. Maybe that's the difference between him and me?"

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@vmval1

remember, even though boomaid and stillow see nothing wrong with it, the SUSA poll shows that 90% of America thinks it is completely unnecessary.

Now, it doesnt matter what you or I or boomaid thinks. What matters is the undecideds and the independents. Do you think they are more likely to fall in the 10% that thinks this makes sense or the 90% that thinks this is nuts?

____________________

vmval1:

ALL polls over the last few days are absolutely null and void now.

____________________

Stillow:

@boomshak

Good luck man with all these lefties....I gotta pick up my son from soccer.....

____________________

zotz:

Stillow-
I want surgery from a Harvard graduate.
Gotcha! LOL!!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomaid

"I'm sorry that Senator Obama doesn't believe the future of America's economy deserves his undivided attention, but I do. Maybe that's the difference between him and me?""

If McCain wants to give the important matters of America such as the economy undivided attention, maybe he should take the process of running for president a little more seriously.

This suspending campaign, rescheduling debates, hiding VP candidates from the press fiasco is making a mockery of the entire presidential selection process.

____________________

boomshak:

Polls today showing the race statistically tied:

1. Rasmussen (Obama +2)
2. Gallup (Obama +3 - despite 10 pt sampling advantage!)
3. Ipsos (Obama +1)
4. NBC/WSJ (Obama +2)
5. Battleground (McCain +2)
6. NPR 14 Battleground (McCain +2)

That's 6 polls showing the race tied. McCain is in fine shape.

____________________

Stillow:

@zotz

Then it would be a law student doing your surgery...when the g'ment takes over and removes the financial perks of being a doctor, the smart folk will go to where the profit is, legal and other professions.........but hey, maybe youwill luck out and get a good g'ment doctor....ya know, maybe an affirmative action one who got a C-....

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

Face the TRUTH man. Obama doesn't want to go to Washington for this debate because he doesn't want to take a position on something before the game is actually over.

If he goes to Washington, he will actually have to VOTE "yes" or "no", God help him, and not "present".

Obama NEVER likes to take a definite position. I mean, look at his positions now vs the primaries. EVERYTHING has changed. I mean EVERYTHING.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Boomaid

"I'm sorry that Senator Obama doesn't believe the future of America's economy deserves his undivided attention, but I do"

Just imagine:

"President McCain postponed the Iraq War today citing a need to give the economy in crisis his undivided attention. There has been no official statement issued yet by the McCain administration on the pressing matters of energy and health care and the potential threat of terrorism. Sources do say, however, that McCain will suspend his administrations focus on those issues as well in light of the pressing needs of the economy. The AP is reporting that McCain called Osama Bin Laden this morning, asking him to hold off any attacks on US soil until AFTER the economy has been sufficiently dealt with."

What a joke. Pathetic.

____________________

boomshak:

You know, it's funny how we have ALL these polls today:

Polls today showing the race statistically tied:

1. Rasmussen (Obama +2)
2. Gallup (Obama +3 - despite 10 pt sampling advantage!)
3. Ipsos (Obama +1)
4. NBC/WSJ (Obama +2)
5. Battleground (McCain +2)
6. NPR 14 Battleground (McCain +2)

Yet the ONLY ONE anybody is talking about in the MSM is the ABC/Post outlier witht the silly sample.

____________________

vmval1:

Kerr:

I hope they fall in the 90%, but that poll was WAAAYY to premature - not enough time for most to digest it.

Also, perceptions change. If McCain can make it look like he was instrumental in being a peacemaker between both sides, many independents would say, with the benefit of hindsight, 'maybe it wasn't a bad idea after all'

Hopefully I'm just being paranoid, but like I said, I don't think this is as hail maryish as most are making it out to be.


____________________

carl29:

McCain doesn't want to debate because he just can't deal with the economy, period. He doesn't know how the bolts and nuts of the economy, this plan, the short-term strategy to keep the economy aflot...is there any?, the long-term strategy to streght the economy...is there any?

He doesn't want to face the fact that all this mess came about for people who holds the same views of deregulation is shares. He doesn't want to explain why and for what Rick Davis was being paid all this years?

See?

____________________

boomshak:

Heres' the thing you guys aren't considering. What is McCain goes to Washington and negotiates this whole deal and gets the Republicans and Democrats to work together on this thing?

That will change everything.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Repeating as boomshat still hasn't responded:

Other polls released by NBC today?

- Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama up 5, and over 50%)
- Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain up 11)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama up 9, and over 50%)
- West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain up 4)

One red state last election turning blue; two states that McLame(brain) is targeting staying blue; and two red states last election that are less red this cycle than in 2004 (Montana went 59-38 Bush; West Virginia went 56-43 for Bush).

Good news all around wouldn't you say boomshat?

____________________

pion:

@Boomshak:

"Obama wants to talk and issue joint resolutions, McCain wants to take action and solve the problem."

Let's try to fair to both candidates, shall we? Both have done far more than simply 'talk' and agree on a joint resolution. Both candidates have consulted with their advisers and developed plans that are similar. Both have been in regular contact with the key people. Please explain what you mean by "take action".

"What Obama supporters call "thoughtful and measured action" most people would call "inability to make tough choices under pressure"."

Obama came up with a plan and did not flip flop the way McCain did on the AIG bail-out (please don't bring up Biden---Obama is the presidential candidate). He waited until the critical information was in before crafting a plan and guidelines for the bailout. That's the way I like decisions being made. I don't want a shoot-from-the-hip president.

"McCain can obviosuly do many thinsg at once,"

Then he should proceed with the debate.

"however, it is clear Obama does not get the gravity of the situation."

This has not been the verdict rendered by the polls or even conservative commentators like George Will. Check out:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html?referrer=digg

____________________

Ulysses:

I suppose everyone has now seen this agonizing interview from today with Couric. I really have little affection for Sarah Palin, and yet even I was embarrassed for her, and had a hard time watching this:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_and_Couric.html

____________________

boomshak:

Think about this. Nothing is working. Nobody can agree. Suddenly McCain rides into town and the deal is done and the market rallies 400 points.

McCain will be hailed as the hero that made it work and Obama will be sitting on the sidelines being "thoughtful".

Believe me, this is what will happen. McCain just won this election.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

You think the democrats are going to LET that happen. If anything, McCain makes a deal LESS likely because repubs are going to WANT him to look like he helped and dems are NOT. As a result, you already have a disagreement.

____________________

carl29:

Boomshak,

How about if there is a sudden attack against the US or any US interest or Israel? Wow putting your hopes on hypotheticals...that smells like desperation my friend.

____________________

boomshak:

@Ulysses:

I thought she was outstanding. What are you talking about?

____________________

slinky:

The economy is fried, with or without this bailout. Read this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/business/economy/25pimco.html

Actually, I don't think the bailout will work.

____________________

marctx:

Its ridiculous and counter intuitive to suggest suspending politics is political? What? Did I hear that right?

Harry Reid said yesterday that this could not pass without McCain getting involved. McCain is doing what the democrats asked him to do.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

That is the whole idea behind why you don't want Presidential politics getting involved in this. By McCain trying to BE INVOLVED, a solution is less likely.

The democrats are going to be inclined to reject anything that makes McCain look good. And the Repubs will try and spin this to make McCain look like the difference maker. As a result, we have a bipartisan issue that will be fought over.

And the average American ends up suffering.

____________________

boomshak:

It's funny how Biden can puke on himself publicly on a daily basis and the MSM thinks it's "cute" but Palin makes one small flub and she is instantly unqualified.

I'll take one Palin flub and raise you 10 Biden gaffes. Gin!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@marc

Reid told McCain not to show up, that he was not needed in Washington.

If you want to put stock into what Reid says, that was today.

____________________

pion:

@zotz:

Stillow wrote: "ya know, maybe an affirmative action one who got a C-.

I guess you were right about Stillow... I feel strangely disappointed, but I shouldn't.

BTW: I can tell you that I would not want heart surgery from a guy who came out 894th out of a class of 899 students.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
"That is the whole idea behind why you don't want Presidential politics getting involved in this. By McCain trying to BE INVOLVED, a solution is less likely.

The democrats are going to be inclined to reject anything that makes McCain look good."

Oh really? So you ADMIT the Democrats would pull a political stunt and reject a good McCain idea just to make him look bad while our economy crumbles?

Glad you admitted that. Your party sucks.

____________________

vmval1:

Sarah Palin is currently a big Non-Issue. The only thing that interview highlighted was why the McCain campaign is so eager to 'postpone' the VP debate.

____________________

slinky:

boome,

Barney Frank, a democrat, is already compromising on most facets of the package, and has obtained assurances on most aspects of the package from the Treasury secretary already.

McCain can't save the day because it has already (mainly) been worked out.

The fiction that you would like to create is already a fiction.

____________________

Ulysses:

boomshak:

In today's interview with Katie Couric (see again: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_and_Couric.html ) it is obvious she knows next to nothing about her running mate's record in the Senate. Even I could have given an example of McCain's (albeit almost non-existent) record on regulation: McCain Feingold is a great example: regulating how campaigns are financed. Also: McCain's early stand on the regulation of offshore drilling. I mean -- seriously -- give me a break. A schmuck like me should not know more, off hand, about the candidate's positions than the VP candidate. It's kind of scary.

____________________

boomshak:

Just wait and see. this move by McCain here will end up winning this election for him. Just wait and see.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I said they would be INCLINED to, just as the repubs would if it was the other way around. It has nothing to do with the party...in a critical election, everyone is pressured to make their candidate look better. You can't possibly be stupid enough to not realize that. If McCain wanted a non-partisan, fair and beneficial solution, the best way would be to just focus on running for President.

____________________

pion:

@boomshak: "Just wait and see. this move by McCain here will end up winning this election for him. Just wait and see."

You sound like gollum...

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I will be saving this line to quote later:

"Just wait and see. this move by McCain here will end up winning this election for him. Just wait and see."

____________________

carl29:

Just imagine for a second...if McCain had what it takes to be the president we need at this time, someone capable to deal with the economy in crisis. There he goes to the debate and wows the entire country with his grasp of the issue, cleaning Obama's clock, making him look like an idiot. Why isn't McCain taking advantage of such opportunity? Doesn't he feel capable of dealing with the issue? C'mon if he is not ready to show his knowledge on the economy, how will he convince us that he is ready to fix it?

McCain/Palin: Not ready to face the American people, but ready to lead?

____________________

marctx:

Listening to the details makes it even more clear that McCain is doing the right thing.

It turns out that many conservatives are "waiting" for McCain to tell them which way to vote because they want to ride the McCain-Palin coat tails. They don't want to find themselves in opposition to the top ticket.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@carl

It's a complete joke, and the height of arrogance.

Even if he was not looking for political gain, it is extremely cynical on his part, particularly for someone that admitted he knew nothing about the economy before he said that he did.

____________________

slinky:

OK, it is now clear that:
(1) the economy is fried.
(2) the bailout may or may not work (50-50 or worse)
(3) Dems. are in good faith negotiating the bail out.
(4) McCain made an empty effort to kill the first debate, and may have succeded.
(5) McCain cancelled on Letterman under false pretenses.

That's all clear.

____________________

slinky:

(7) Bush endorsed McCains initiative: Bush's blessing is often a curse. It will probably work that way this time.

____________________

carl29:

Of course that McCain doesn't want to talk about the economy. He thought that the debate will be about national security and just national security, but surprise, surprise...how to face the American people and not talk about the #1 issue in everybody's minds. Obama's strategy is clear, mingle economic-security with national-security, so the debate will be frame on his terms.

If McCain knew something about the economy, he wouldn't be in this problem...if, if, if my friend.

____________________

slinky:

(6) McCain has helped everyone understand that he is impulsive. I definitely don't want to go Christmas shopping with McCain. It seems to me that he would be the worst shopper in the world! (at least the most impulsive).

____________________

s.b.:

Fox news by the way had Kerry winning by 3% for its final poll, and more for its last several polls in 2004.

They don't have a Rep bias in their polls.

____________________

Bigmike:

Dear John McCain:

WTF!

Mike

____________________

macsuk:

Palin bombed on CBS...This is what McCains move was all about

____________________

kerrchdavis:

You know, although I fully acknowledge that I am biased and a huge Obama fan...more than anything, I'm just really sick of all the BS.

Can't we just have a normal f-ing election?

____________________

Ulysses:

Sadly for McCain -- who as I've said before, used to be one of my heroes -- this decision will be seen as an utterly disastrous one that signaled a final surrender. Would Winston Churchill stop his own political campaign for prime minister of Britain to "go back to Parliament" to help a bunch of other politicians pass a bill of dubious value? Not a snowball's chance in Hell he would do that 40 days before his nation voted. He would charge into the debate with fire in his voice and proclaim what the nation needed to do.

To me, this signals the end of the presidential election. I can only shake my head in sorrow over what's become of one of the GOP's most effective politicians, and one of America's great patriots.

____________________

carl29:

s.b,

Fox news by the way had Kerry winning by 3% for its final poll, and more for its last several polls in 2004.

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31
Bush 46% Kerry 48% Kerry +2

FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18
Bush 48% Kerry 43% Bush +5

Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4
Bush 48% Kerry 45% Bush +3

The average of Fox polls for the entire month of October:

Bush 47% vs. Kerry 43%, Bush +4

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Repeating as boomshat still hasn't responded:

Other polls released by NBC today?

- Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama up 5, and over 50%)
- Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain up 11)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama up 9, and over 50%)
- West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain up 4)

One red state last election turning blue; two states that McLame(brain) is targeting staying blue; and two red states last election that are less red this cycle than in 2004 (Montana went 59-38 Bush; West Virginia went 56-43 for Bush).

Good news all around wouldn't you say boomshat?

____________________

mirrorball:

Sounds like Bush is taking McCain up on one part of his proposal. To convene a meeting that includes both candidates:

"A few moments ago, President Bush called Senator Obama and asked him to attend a meeting in Washington tomorrow, which he agreed to do. Senator Obama has been working all week with leaders in Congress, Secretary Paulsen, and Chairman Bernanke to improve this proposal, and he has said that he will continue to work in a bipartisan spirit and do whatever is necessary to come up with a final solution. He strongly believes the debate should go forward on Friday so that the American people can hear from their next President about how he will lead America forward at this defining moment for our country," said Obama-Biden spokesman Bill Burton.

____________________

marctx:

MSNBC's Chuck Todd sides with McCain and says a DEMOCRAT Leon Penetta said this crisis is the equivalent of 9-11 and BOTH campaigns should be suspended to deal with it.

____________________

vmval1:

I'll look for light anywhere I can at the moment. Intrade has Obama up 56 -43.

____________________

macsuk:

Also I always thought Intrade was more accurate then polls.. Current; Obama 56.2 McCain 42.7 Ouch

____________________

pion:

@mirrorball: "Sounds like Bush is taking McCain up on one part of his proposal. To convene a meeting that includes both candidates"

Thank God Bush is on top of this!

____________________

vmval1:

mirrorball:

Bush agreeing with McCain is BAD for him. Bush agreeing with ANYONE is bad for that person.

____________________

slinky:

Bush admits these are 'not normal circumstances' and that the market is not working properly.

Bush is a dope.

His laissez-faire capitalism is just so much crap, and he virtually admits it.

____________________

Bigmike:

McCain wants to suspend the campaign about 40 days before the election, and he is trailing in the polls? He thinks he can make up the ground with LESS time? Maybe he's a sprinter and not a marathoner, who knows.

This comes off one of two ways.

The first is he is desperate. Which begs the question why is he desperate. Not enough cash? Is Mr. champion of public campaign financing admitting it doesn't work? Afraid to debate? Yes, it will be spun AND perceived that way. Internal polls worse than the public ones and he has concluded a snowball has a better chance in hell?

The second way this can be understood is if the economy is worse than they have told us. Things are about to fall apart. Like, tomorrow. My 401k gone. Uh, John, when the public percerption is that Reps are to blame, this isn't going to help you.

The saddest part is he probably honestly believes he is doing what is right for the country. Earth to John. If Obamas policies are as bad as you say the are, the best thing you can do for the country is kick his butt.

Many of you know I am conservative. I am sitting here shaking my head and wondering if I need to worry. A Lot. Pay the penalties, cash the 401k, convert it to gold, TOMORROW.

I just don't freaking get it.

Gotta go get food for the dog. Y'all have fun.

____________________

marctx:

Hahaha...

David Letterman's top ten list on Bush's solutions to solve the economic crisis:

1. Is Hillary still available...

____________________

slinky:

The economy is fried. I have only about 15% of my money in 401K stock, and most of that is not US stock (European), so I am not that worried. I am nearly all in Gov't securities (full faith and credit of the US). So, I am fine.

I notice that on zillow.com, the value of my house is down nearly 25% in the past 3 months, so that's a real indication that the economy is fried. Someone next door (the black family) bought at the top of the market, and that's nearly 30% more than my house, less than a year ago, for the same thing.

So, I wish I had bought the gold I was looking at two years ago, but, it was pretty expensive, even then.

____________________

Atomique:

Ahh, the last poll showing Bush III anywhere near Obama's numbers.

Finally, he is living up to his campaign slogan of putting country first...by allowing the superior candidate to run unopposed!

____________________

marctx:

Obama supporter Chris Matthews says "good for him" when referring to McCain going back to washington to whip up the republicans to support the bail out.

____________________

illinoisindie:

Arrrgh... I am so sick of Bush.... how many fear buttons pushed in 14 minutes... no more under the gun pressure-making congress... If this thing is decided on friday... maybe I do need to make a bank run. does this remind us of Bush's request to go to war... I want a well thought out process... geeze... will these people ever learn. Hopefully the senators on both sides will be looking out for the people

____________________

marctx:

Independent CNN pundit Lou Dobbs says "brilliant move by McCain".

____________________

slinky:

I think it's fairly clear to most sentient humans that Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Barney Frank (D-MA) have been doing the important negotiating with the White House, Treasury and Fed on this bill, and that they should get credit for the work they did.

McCain and Obama both didn't do that much. They were too busy.

Bush he'pd make the crisis by destroying the Justice Department.

He should (Bush should) go to jail for what he did with Justice, but, let's just get him out of the oval office ASAP, instead.

____________________

illinoisindie:

oh please lou dobbs is not an independant and it was a dumb move by mccain

____________________

marctx:

Independent CNN pundit Lou Dobbs says Obama's push for a joint statement is "condescending nonsense".

____________________

illinoisindie:

@ slinky
anyone but me worried about congress giving that kind of power to Paulson... I am sooooo mad right now. (yes I know Im ranting)

____________________

zotz:

I think we are at the point where the public assumes that Bush is lying. Trying to rush through $700 billion authorization using scare tactics and saying there should be no oversight and no accountability and of course we cannot limit CEO pay packages.

On this site Rep trolls saying that Obama is wasting "precious seconds" in not signing on to the Paulson "plan". Then they praise everything McCain-Palin says or does even when they contradict themselves.

On Countdown I see Palin's pastor praying over her asking Jesus to protect her from witchcraft. Then I get sick, change the channel, and see Bill Clinton saying we must not criticize Palin or McCain even when they are trying to bury Obama with their lies and smears. Why is it that I suspect Clinton wouldn't be too unhappy if Obama lost?

Hello out there? Are there any sane people left?

____________________

marctx:

Independent CNN researchers discover contributions from failed Freddie Mac et al went to Chris Dodd 165k, Obama 126k, compared to McCains 21k.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Repeating as boomshat still hasn't responded:

Other polls released by NBC today?

- Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama up 5, and over 50%)
- Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain up 11)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama up 9, and over 50%)
- West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain up 4)

One red state last election turning blue; two states that McLame(brain) is targeting staying blue; and two red states last election that are less red this cycle than in 2004 (Montana went 59-38 Bush; West Virginia went 56-43 for Bush).

Good news all around wouldn't you say boomshat?

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
What is your effin point? I already told you McCain got $11.4 million from the investment banks.

____________________

slinky:

McCain has layed low on regulation since his own Savings and Loan debacle. I think he doesn't really want to get into this area. It isn't his strong suit.

____________________

Basil:

Letterman's famously hot-tempered, just like McCain. Dave's peeved and acting silly, while McCain's freaking out about his chances slipping away.

@marc
What does "independent" Lou Dobbs know about brilliant strategies? And by calling it a strategy, doesn't Dobbs admit that it's got nothing to do with putting the country first? I saw Dobbs say what he said, and he seemed to admit as much.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Clearly this economic problem is Sara Palin's fault. And W's. With faith-based economic initiatives and GOP-deregulated markets you gotta pray WAY harder than this. "FAIL!" to quote boomshack.

If any of you folks on the right think that either McCain or Obama are going to get any "hands on" time negotiating the package, you are way off. Not only are they not on any relevant committees, but they are not even on the conference teams. The fact is, McCain is so out of touch with the basics, so basically economically sound, that in his discussions with W tomorrow, it is not clear to whom the basic economic tenets have to be explained first.

His cancellation of Letterman taping today mirrors the suspension of the campaign: he had to rush to Washington to deal with the economy; meanwhile he is caught in a lie, doing a Katy Couric (sp?) interview. The whole snap to Washington is a lie, and it is an irrational, impulsive lie, that will come back to haunt McCain very soon.

Look at the inadvertently leaked campaign memo: these bozos cannot even keep their inside information secret. The true motivation will leak out in a very similar manner, give it a couple of days.

Colorado going blue nailed it today. When Boom seeks shelter in Obama +2 national polls, you know it's a great Obama sunrise!

with lots of love,
~ LatteLiberal

____________________

marctx:

zotz: talk to CNN about that. i saw their report.

Basil:

Lou Dobbs says what he says because he says it. What? He's tired like I am of Obama's condescending nonsense.

____________________

marctx:

Bill Clinton strategist Dick Morris says McCain's move is "brilliant" and "fabulous".

____________________

slinky:

for the record, Dobbs does not have a good record on racial harmony.

His constant haranging on 'immigration' smells of xenophobic propaganda. He does not appear to understand the first thing about the immigrant contribution to America, and he does not seem to understand the issues of race in this election.

I used to like Dobbs, but, he has not grown. People are like sharks (Woody Allen once said about himself), gotta keep moving forward, or they die.

____________________

nick-socal:

Holy Crap! Sarah Palin did not just say that! Wow.

And also, what's with this "I'm suspending my campaign" thing? What? That doesn't sound too good McCain. Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign too. As did Romney. Why wouldn't you have said, "I'm clearing my campaign schedule to return to Washington..." Weird choice of words. Or did they mean that? Like literally they are giving up? Odd.

But that statement by Palin that she'll have to get back to Couric on at least one specific example... wow. Just wow.

Is there any possible way McCain can win this legitimately at this point?

____________________

marctx:

Hockey moms are "disabled".

House To Launch Investigation Into Rep. Rangel

http://wcbstv.com/breakingnewsalerts/charles.rangel.investigation.2.824777.html

____________________

nick-socal:

That would be really awesome if Rangel were running for president, on Obama's campaign team, or even in the same room as Obama.

Who cares about Rangel?

____________________

marctx:

Finally, Obama shows some little leadership.

CNN confirms: McCain, Obama to meet with Bush about bailout

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

____________________

Basil:

Letterman's famously hot-tempered, just like McCain. Dave's peeved and acting silly, while McCain's freaking out about his chances slipping away.

Letterman's not running for president. McCain's not running his campaign. Even if McCain wins, who's getting elected?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

I think they should leave McCain campaigning and let Palin solve the crisis. After all, she is the one with more executive experience than the other three combined. Here's her chance to lead. To do some "shakin' up 'n fixin'". And let McCain's campaign die gracefully of natural causes, and not abruptly and in flames, as it stands now.

Sarah, do you not hear our cry?! Lieberman and Carly will help ya! C'mon, flex some of that famed cerebellum.

____________________

1magine:

Reagan and Carter debated although the Hostage Crises had begun.

Nixon and Kennedy debated 3 days after bomb went off in Times Square (believe it was 2nd or 3rd in a series of bombings)

Bush and Gore debated 5 days after the US Cole had been attacked.

The list goes on and on.

I'm sorry - there is a part of me that wants to believe in McCain - but this is just political at best reactionary and overblown at worse.

When the crises broke McCain said "...the fundamentals are sound.." then he tried to make the fundamentals equal not employment, credit market or even the housing market - but tried to make it the American people? Come on. Then he said we need to fire Colson, then realized he didn't have the power to fire him, then said he was doing a good job, then he said we need more regulation, than less regulation, then more regulation, then he said he liked the bail-out plan, then he said he didn't like the plan, then he said it was Obama's fault, then he said we need to look closely at the plan, then screamed it was time for immediate action and today it came full circle from the fundamentals are sound to we are on the precipice of another great depression.

With all due respect to every Republican who can read my words, think about the last 2 weeks of the McCain campaign and the next 4 years for 2 minutes. Can you picture what things will be like?

I know you believe the best way to grow the economy is with breaks for capital investment (trickle down for the folks playing at home), that the way to expand democracy is through military force and that criminalizing homosexuality and abortion are important to you; but do you really trust McCain anymore to do anything? Really - I don't know what he'll do next, neither do you. That's great for a sitcom character or reality tv, not so great for a Commander in Chief.

I have just taken a leave of absence from my practice to go into PA and go door to door the first week of October. I urge all those out there to do what you can at this critical moment. This is not politics anymore - it is national survival. Obama will not solve all our country's problems. In fact - he may screw a few things up. But my God, the alternative is too frightening to contemplate.

____________________

marctx:

This election is not going to come down to opinions of foreigners like Thoughtful. You can call middle American's "disabled", but Obama/Rangel will pay the price. Thank God McCain is going to washington to fix this mess. Good night.

____________________

Basil:

1magine

Good for you. Your point about the last 2 weeks is apt. McCain is one scary guy.

Imagine him as president, coming on TV for a SPECIAL REPORT. Half the viewers over 70 would have heart attacks before they even got to the subject matter.

When Reagan said the bombing was about to start, he was kidding. When McCain says it, maybe he is and maybe he isn't.

____________________

joecooper:

Couric's questions of Palin were entirely fair and even important, given the current situation. (Can you imagine that McCain himself, or Barack, or Bill Clinton, or Hillary, would have struggled with ANY of those softballs?) For anyone who had any doubts, the Couric interview provides iron-clad evidence: Palin is a moron. To claim otherwise is just another example of the willful ignorance that has shamefully typified McCain supporters since her nomination. No objective or right-thinking person could possibly watch that interview and be satisfied with Palin's demeanor or the content of her answers.

It's painful, but I can see now why some voters say they "can relate to her."

Thankfully, McCain's spectacular self-immolation continues.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Repeating as boomshat still hasn't responded:

Other polls released by NBC on Wednesday?

- Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama up 4, and over 50%)
- Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama up 5, and over 50%)
- Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain up 11)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama up 9, and over 50%)
- West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain up 4)

One red state last election turning blue; two states that McLame(brain) is targeting staying blue; and two red states last election that are less red this cycle than in 2004 (Montana went 59-38 Bush; West Virginia went 56-43 for Bush).

Good news all around wouldn't you say boomshat?

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike In Maryland:

Race is a statistical dead heat.

Now if I was Obama and I had the entire MSM on my side 24/7 giving free advertising under the guise of hard news, a bad economy he can blame on Republicans, an unpopular President, a 72 year old grouch opponent with a hcoket mom running mate, I would hope like hell I was doing better than TIED.

Obama is a distaster. He should be ahead by 20 points here. He is a joke.


MEANWHILE, did you happen to notice the new NPR Battleground Poll showing McCain +2?

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/gqrnpr_battleground_poll.html

Riddle me that, Batman.

____________________

boomshak:

Why the hell are polls like that ABCNews/Post hot mess even allowed to be broadcast? I mean the sample is a complete joke and has even been discredited by other Democratic Pollsters.

Yet, it is being presented as the "gold standard" everywhere.

Bullox.

Yiu know, MSM, you really should come up for air occasionally. It had got to get stuffy with your head shoved so far up Obama's backside all the time.

You know the media is biased when it makes big news that Matt Lauer actually asked Obama a semi-tough question just once.

____________________

boomshak:

Just saw something interesting on CNBC:

As you know, NBC and CNBC (their business channel) tends to lean hard left. If you have ever watched it, you know this.

Anyway, this morning, they had an analyst on to discuss their new poll numbers showing Obama up by only 2 and not the popular +9 number the MSM seems to love.

So anyway, they start talking to the analyst and they talk and talk and talk. No mention of poll numbers. Then the announcer says, "Well, that's all the time we have right now. looks like we won't be able to get to the poll numbers, but we'll try to discuss them sometime later today, but it's a busy day with a lot of news..."

I just laughed. So let me get this straight. You came up with a poll that shows the race tied and you don't want to discuss your own poll?

The MSM bias is just silly at this point.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak

MSM minus FOX have a conference call at the end of every day to plan how they are going to get to you the following day.

It seems to be working.


Your man is 5% down nationally, and personally for a guy who said the economy was fundamentally sound a week ago, I dopn't think that his latest "Hail Mary" is getting anywhere near the end zone. Indeed, he better be very careful with his temper and in being constructive in orchestrating a bipartisan solution.

Middle America are onto his stunts and he really is coming accross as a cranky old man with ill considered knee jerk reactions to events.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Sorry 6% down, you'll have to wait on Ras, should be 3% and possibly 4% down.

"Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 49-43 (Likely Voters, MoE +/- 3). All trackers are data from three days prior to posting,"

____________________

boomshak:

thoughtful,

You should know better. McCain's "for a guy who said the economy was fundamentally sound a week ago" comment was taken COMPLETELY out of context. The MSM actually took the first part of his statement and stripped away the rest. Even you believed the lie.

Here is McCain's FULL COMMENT:

"You know," said McCain, "there's been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street and it is -- people are frightened by these events. Our economy, I think, still the fundamentals of our economy are strong. But these are very, very difficult time. And I promise you, we will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street. We will reform government."

As you can see, the message of his commenst was COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than the hacked up MSM version you've bought into.

AND THERE'S THIS REGARDING HOW MANY PARTS OF THE ECONOMY ARE QUITE ROBUST:

"John McCain has taken a lot of grief for repeatedly saying "the fundamentals of the economy are strong," including yesterday, on Meltdown Monday. (Of course, McCain has also said the economy's "in a shambles.") So, what's the reality here?

1) Wall Street is in a recession (autos and housing, too), but the overall U.S. economy is not. The economy probably grew at close to 4 percent in the second quarter and is expanding at near 2 percent in the third quarter.

2) Worker productivity, the single best measure of the intrinsic strength of an economy, is booming. It was up 3.4 percent from a year ago in the second quarter. As market guru Ed Yardeni notes, "It is up by another percentage point, excluding the depressed residential construction industry. Economic growth is shifting from low productivity home construction to high productivity capital goods exports manufacturing." This is good.

3) In its 2007 ranking of global competitiveness, the World Economic Forum ranked America first. Among its strengths: Higher education, labor markets, and innovation. The credit crisis hasn't changed any of that. (The 2008 ranking comes out next month.)

4) Consumer confidence has actually been rising all summer. No doubt the upturn is linked to the 40 percent drop in prices. The "energy tax cut" will help real working incomes.

Bottom line: What's not fundamentally sound is the U.S. government. For starters, it has huge long-term liabilities. What's more, it pushed a pro-housing agenda (Fannie/Freddie, subsidies) that when combined with absurdly low interest rates earlier this decade (via the Fed) created the environment for the housing bubble and implosion and now rising unemployment. Michael Bloomberg nailed it yesterday when he said in an interview, "I do agree that fundamentally America has an economy that is strong. America's great strength is its diversity, its hard work, its good financial statements, its broad capital markets, its enormous natural resources.... I'd rather play America's hand than any other country. Without problems? No."

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

Just stop! Stop quoting that steaming pile of bullsh*t DailyKos poll. Unless, of course, you believe as they do that only 26% of the electorate is Republican.

Even you cannot be that blind.

Do you want to know the truth or some jacked up sample-manipulated democrat talking point poll?

I mean look at Gallup. Gallup has admitted to giving democrats a REDICULOUS 10 point sampling edge in his poll and even he has Obama only up by 3.

The DailyKos/ABC/WAPO polls are disgusting and transparent manipulations by an MSM desperate to elect a socialist POTUS.

____________________

boomshak:

Barack Obama:

"Why take action, fraught with the risks of miscalculation, when it is so much easier and safer simply to talk about what you would do if ever you did act. Then once others have acted or miscalculated, you can stand back and explain with great eloquence how you would have performed much better in the same circumstance."

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak

If McCain's position is outlined as below, how do you square "comparable with 9/11" "the worst since WW11" quotes he made yesterday.
Is below the quote of a someone who is going to take the unprecedented steps of suspending his campaign unilaterally or a cynical attempt at changing the election momentum because he is 5%+ behind in the polls, dead in the water.

"You know," said McCain, "there's been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street and it is -- people are frightened by these events. Our economy, I think, still the fundamentals of our economy are strong. But these are very, very difficult time. And I promise you, we will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street. We will reform government."

This is the most cynical campaign in the modern era.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

Why do you keep insisting that McCain is 5+ points down? There were SIX polls yesterday saying McCain was 3 or less points down.

Battleground with a sample of 1000 LV's just came out showing McCain +1.

Seriously, you can throw out the following polls (and reasons why):
1. ABCNews/Post: O+9 - rediculous sample as admitted to by the Democratic Pollster for teh WSJ.
2. DailyKos: O+6 - 26% Republicans? Fail. Next.
3. Hotline: O+6 - This poll went from O+1 to O+5 to O+4 in 3 consecutive days. To achieve that their underlying numbers had to be O+1, O+10, O+3. It makes no sense and is statistically impossible.
4. FoxNews. O+6 - The average support for Mccain in ALL National Polls yesterday was 45. FoxNews is 39. Clearly, something is wrong when your poll is 6 points below the average and 3 points below the nest lowest poll. This poll was conducted by OpinionDynamics and NOT Rasmussen.

So basically, all of the polls you are relying upon for your silly +5 number are highly suspect at best and just plain whacky at worst.

____________________

zotz:

Boomshak-
"As you know, NBC and CNBC (their business channel) tends to lean hard left."

As always, you are right. Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow are two of MSM's biggest advocates of Stalinism. But they are tricky. Yesterday I heard Kudlow say this,

"Keep France and Soviet Style policies out of the rescue plan. Honestly. A clean bill as requested by Treasury man Henry Paulson, along with John McCain’s oversight board, can help fix the credit-crunch problem. It needn’t be this hard."

Who does he think he's fooling? We know Kudlow's real agenda...Communism! Why would he be talking like that if he wasn't lying?

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

Ok, let's see, CNBC has about 50 commentators and analysts and you have managed to track down the two conservatives.

48:2

Thanks for proving my point, I couldn't have done it better myself.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

"This is the most cynical campaign in the modern era."

Don't be so hard on Obama. He's trying.

____________________

JCK:

boomshak,

Back to McCain's statement "economy is fundamentally sound":

The fact that you're having to explain the comment at all, means that McCain has lost the political battle on that one. It was stupid thing to say, even if, in context, it was true. It makes him look insensitive and out of touch.

This is just like the "cling to guns and religion" comment that Obama made at that fundraiser. I don't think the comment was that bad in its context, but he lost the political battle precisely because the comment was so easily taken out of context. Just like McCain's comments, this comment made Obama look insensitive and out of touch.

____________________

zotz:

The "economy is fundamentally sound" remark was not an off the cuff remark. It was part of McCain's stump speech. McCain didn't realize that anything had changed. MSNBC found that this statement was a standard McCain statement throughout the campaign.

"First Read searched through our database of the candidates' speeches and found McCain had used the phrase at least 16 other times, between Jan. 1st and June 5th of this year."
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/15/1403383.aspx

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Rasmussen Daily Obama up 3%

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshat

SENATOR MCCAIN SAID TUESDAY THAT HE HADN'T READ THE BAILOUT PROPOSAL, according to Cleveland NBC station WKYC: 'In an exclusive interview he told Tom Beres, 'I have not had a chance to see it in writing. I have to examine it.''

McCain a President - you must be kidding!

If Rasmussen with a Republican "House Effect" is 3% points to Obama, then Obama has a 5% lead!

____________________

KipTin:

OK... explain this soundbite. Yesterday Obama stated that "McCain is decisive." I bet you wish you had the context for that gem.

---------

Please, please, give it up... thoughtful. Rasmussen is what it is... a tracking poll. You do not need to inject a "house effect" or modify it for Democratic voters.

____________________

Trosen:

Why do you guys even respond to these clowns. Let's follow the logic.. the polls, even the "good" ones that show McCain diving 7-10 points from 2 weeks ago is "good news" for McCain? 90% of the American public being opposed to postponing the debate is "good news?" Every poll except the ones shwing McCain only losing by a little are "outliers?" (Like that damn liberal Rassmussen)... and that is of course "good news?" Palin bringing back a pulse to the campaign and now they won't take the gag out of her mouth as her stock plummets to free fall is "good news?" 75-80% of the American public being opposed to the $700B bailout the way Paulson, Bush, and Cheney want to ram it through and now McCain rushing to Washington to try to bring up the rear and make it happen is a "good thing?" Guys.. when the completely delusional guy on the corner is having an animated discussion with himself about the aliens shaving his testicles, you don't confront him and try to explain to him the error of his ways.. Just walk on by (and maybe point and laugh from a distance.. if you're into that kind of thing).

____________________

kkpollster:

If it were me: I would only average Battleground and Rasmussen together with Pew when their polls come out. Consistently only Battleground and Ras have called the race correctly, and Battleground has called 3 out of the last four on the nose, including the last won where they got the percentage and the tenth percentage correct which is astonishing. That would mean that Obama has a 1.5% margin right now, not great, as if this were an attack on America like 9-11 Mac would be up by 7-10 pts. If this is the best Obama can do in the area of economics the dems perceived strength, I can't see how any dem sees this as good news.

____________________

kkpollster:

If it were me: I would only average Battleground and Rasmussen together with Pew when their polls come out. Consistently only Battleground and Ras have called the race correctly, and Battleground has called 3 out of the last four on the nose, including the last won where they got the percentage and the tenth percentage correct which is astonishing. That would mean that Obama has a 1.5% margin right now, not great, as if this were an attack on America like 9-11 Mac would be up by 7-10 pts. If this is the best Obama can do in the area of economics the dems perceived strength, I can't see how any dem sees this as good news.

____________________

cinnamonape:

I've seen several people here rattle off a whole series of polls (sometimes tossing the extremes) stating the average and then asserting that the average was within the MOE of one or several polls.

Here's the problem with that argument. The MOE is a statement about the probability of several polls (with the same sample size and methodology) falling within a range about that number. Now ignoring the fact that the sample sizes and methodologies differ...even if they were the same the fact that one polled several times and arrived at an average that is 3-4 points above parity would reduce significantly the likelihood of the respondants being evenly split.

That's because the MOE above parity would be 3.2%...and you have 3-4 polls above that MOE of the 9 or so taken. So instead of having one poll out of 20 that would be above the MOE...you have 3/9! And ALL the polls are above the suggested "tie".

It's far more likely that Obama leads by about 4-5, with the poll distribution on either side of that mean.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Some of you need to learn basic statistics. One doesn't average the polls and then try to explain that SINGLE mean point as falling within a MOE around an even race.

The polls represent a selection of samples from universe of results. To suggest that actual results are tied ignores fundamental statistics. Ignoring the fact there are slightly different sample sizes and methodologies involved (and that these actually are not RAW results...but massaged outputs in many cases) the only appropriate way to assess these results collectively is to suggest that the MOE falls around the collective mean. That suggests that "a tie" (parity) would be very far down the tail of the distribution of potential polls. It's something like 1/40.

Conversely, imagine the odds if the race was actually tied and you had a) all samples falling above one's suggested actual result ("a tie"); b) 3-4 (of say 10) polls fall on the upper side of the MOE, and c) one falling some 3SD beyond it. If you tried to make such an argument to any statistician you'd be laughed out of the building.

____________________

Patrick:

There is still well over a month until election day and ANYTHING can happen. There are 4 debates and the really hard-hitting ads haven't even started yet (esp from the 527 independent groups). Remember, this is a totally unprecendented election year (i.e. first black candidate; oldest candidate; first viable woman VP). With the economic disaster going on and a sitting president that is as unpopular as any president has ever been, generically Obama clearly has a huge advantage (and McCain a huge disadvantage) going in. Historically, the only time the nation has keep a party in power for more than 8 years is when there is a very popular 2-term president. However, because Obama is not that well known or experienced, there is still a good chance McCain (the "maverick") can pull out a victory, at least electorally. There may very well also be a "Bradley effect" in some of the swing states (esp. in the industrial NE and mid-west). Remember, these national polls include all states and Obama has a huge lead in more states than McCain does. But each candidate wins the same # of electoral votes whether they win the state by 20% or 100 votes. Remember 2000? So I'd say that Obama has a slight edge right now, but it could really go either way.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Patrick

Viable is too generous an expression.

There was no sign of any "Bradley Effect" in the Primaries.

Equally, a masive amount especially in the Dems States new voters young and AA difficult for pollsters to reach. Rasmussen doesn't get to Cell phone users!

Obama is 5% up nationally now and moving away. Big MO!!! This latest McCain stunt to try to stop Obama's Big MO has made McCain look even older and less capable of taking on a full work load.

McCain got slaughtered last night and will again today in the polling. Wait until tomorrow.

Palin is seen now by a majority opf voters as a liability.

Plenty of time left, debates to be had but 85% have made up their minds, and the RACISTS made their's up long ago no Bradley Effect!

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Are you now a Gallup man they have it tied at 46 apiece?

That Rasmussen is too volatile look +3% !!

____________________

whitetower:

Ok, Gallup has McCain and Obama tied. Now I just don't believe the polls at all.

I get the sense, as Rasmussen notes, that there are simply large percentages of the population (upwards of 20%) that are either a.) completely undecided on who they're voting for or b.) hiding something from pollsters.

____________________

kkpollster:

To Thoughtful:

Thoughtful, Ras is likely voters and Gallup is registered voters. Ras uses digital voices and Gallup uses actual people speaking on phone. There are some differences.

As far as Bradley effect: yes unfortunately it does exist in some states, it certainly was in N. Hampshire, and Ohio and the exit polls there were off 4% regarding Obama. It's sad that it still exists but at least it is much small than it used to be, ie.Tom Bradley's margin being off by 11 % and Wilder being off by 22%.

Patrick is correct, the Hillary voters are not coming over, as they were suppossed to by now. That is a problem. And if all Obama can muster in this financial crisis, which is his perceived strength as a Dem, a tie or within margin or -1-2 pts, then that is a big problem as after Friday, the news will calm down on the financial calamity substantially.

____________________



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