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US: Obama 48, McCain 47 (GWU 10/14-16, 19-20)

Topics: PHome

GWU/ Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/14-16,19-20, 08; 1,000 LV 3%

National
Obama 48, McCain 47

 

Comments
MDB1974:

wow, mccain better turn down his pacemaker

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decided:

sample sizes of 350 per day should not be allowed for national trackers.

Ignore them and count on Rasmussen and Gallup

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drinkwine247:

hehehe, um outlier
Whatever helps McCain sleep at night.

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SoloBJ:

Unreal. Zogby and Kos show O +8.
Hotline shows O +6
RAS shows O +4
Gallup showed O +11 yesterday..
and now GWU/Battleground shows O +1
These polls are all over the place.

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billwy:

For the sake of a closer race, I like this poll. But what are the dates? Why are there two days missing from the middle? Does battleground always do that?

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Grummy1971:

Boom's new favourite pollster, surely?

Can anyone explain without taking an extreme Boomshak / anti-Boomshak line? Zogby is going one way, Kos has bounced back again, so why has GWU come in so tight? Has one great day of Obama fallen off, or has McCain really caught up - it would seem to be inconsistent with the general direction (or lack thereof) of travel. Or are GWU a harbinger of more to come?

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Commander_King:

Battleground also showed Obama +13 not long ago.Im getting to where I ignore national polls altogether.

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MDB1974:

They don't poll on the weekend

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mysticlaker:

If Obama is up by one nationally I'll eat my shoe. He was not up by 14 last week, nor is he up by 1...

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mandalorianarmy:

Battleground, Hotline and the IBD/TIPP polls are really not that reliable. They jump around too much.

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JoeThePlumber:

This just in...

Michelle's "Whitey" video will be released one week prior to the election. This will play well in PA which does not have early voting. If PA turns, Obama is in serious trouble.

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mm:

RAs McCain 46 Obama 40 go baby go

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JoeThePlumber:

Now we know why McCain is sticking aroung in PA.

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mysticlaker:

mm-That's a typo.

It 50-46.

Sorry to ruin your day.

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mandalorianarmy:

Right....

The Repubs are sitting on a damning video that they could have used before people already started voting.

Trust me, anything they could through at Obama is already out there.

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IWillWorkHarder:

That's a typo mm; it's 50-46 O

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mrzookie:

@Grummy1971:

Here's a stab at it. GW is a 5 day tracker, but they don't poll on weekends. These results reflect Tues-Thurs of last week and Sun-Mon of this. Last week, McCain had a strong mid week. Obama probably had a decent weekend. This poll has the former baked in, but not the latter. The other polls are reflecting the opposite.

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

My guess is since this poll has a larger lag time ie they are still picking up on some of McCain's stronger days from last week. Either that or the good people at Battleground are smoking illegal substances rolled in tar paper.

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zen:

This poll skips Friday and Saturday.... really funny.
I think battle ground poll and hotline poll plus Zogby are really useless...

I wonder why they put these polls on the web.
They should be ruled out.

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thoughtful:

I am away in China for 2 days and this is the first poll I see. They must have decided to change their model - no internals?

The polls are amazingly stable.

This is an outlier on any judgement basis.

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TD Free:

Just so you know who is doing the survey...

The Tarrance Group.."Over the years, our total commitment to quality has helped elect more than 80 Republican governors, U.S. Senators and Members of Congress,as well as scores of state legislative candidates. All of these clients would say one thing about The Tarrance Group: We hate to lose."

Always take these (on both sides) with a heavy dose of salt.

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HJM-UGA:

I'm obviously reading something incorrectly, but I went to their website and it looks like Obama is up by 4% on their 10/19 and 10/20 polls. Where does the 1% lead come from?

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JoeThePlumber:

@mandalorianarmy:

Sorry, no early voting in PA. That is why they waited.


Also, the only people early voting are the eager Obamabots that would have voted for Obama any way. Early vote does not equal more votes. Just fewere loons at the polls on Nov. 4th.

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1magine:

For the last month I have said please ignore Battleground and Diaego. They are unreliable and you view at your own risk. Especially Battleground. Where are the battlegrounds? MO, IN, VA, NC... Red states and some very red, red states. This is neither a state poll, nor a national poll. Further depending on where you poll within a red state you can get some really weird results. In some cases this poll has had negligible AA or hispanic votes.

Did Sydney make up ground in last 2 weeks? YOU BETCHYA. Did he take it from O+13 to O+1? Not in this lifetime. BUT the race DID go from O50/52 - M42/44 to O50/51 - M44/46. That is a 6-8 point National lead closed to 4-6 points within 10 days. Most of that is Reps finally coming home. O has not lost support among Dems. That is growing, and his support among indep are relatively steady in most states. In MO, FL and IN the older white "indeps" (About 2-3% overall)have been fluid all election. They will in the end go 80/20 to Sydney. That will close the gap to 3-4% on election day, and win Sydney IN, MO, possibly OH, and FL. But will not be nearly enough in NV, CO, VA, NH or PA. And NC will be a tossup. Until Sydney can gain on the ground in CO, NH, VA and PA where BO has 9-12% leads National numbers should neither be a concern or a cause for celebration.

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cambridge blue:

As a reminder, back in late September (circa 9/25), this poll had McCain +2 while just about every other poll had Obama +4 or more.

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muckinello:

@Joe
Yes, right! The "whitey" tape... hilarious!

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The_Huntsman:

How long before Drudge starts blaring this one with a siren?

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billwy:

I understand you might say the poll is biased, but it was done in conjunction with a democratic polling firm...do you really think they want Obama's lead to shrink?

Just trying to wrap my mind around this...can't remember the last time we say a 1 point tracking poll...

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OGLiberal:

The history of the GWU/Battleground poll:

9/28: M+2
10/2: O+3
10/5: O+7
10/8: O+3
10/9: O+8
10/13: O+13
10/16: O+4
10/20: O+1

Sorry, something is wrong with this one. This late in the game the race is not this fluid. In the same time frame, Rasmussen has had the race between 4-8 pts, with Obama consistently between 50-52 and McCain consistently between 44-46. This Battleground poll is all over the place. Obama +3 to Obama +13 to Obama +4 all in the space of 6 days. No way. This +1 reading is as much of an outlier as their +13 reading. (I have NO idea where that wacky one came from)

Anybody have any insight into their internals? Party ID weightings? Methodology? All I'm ever able to link to is a single slide with a line chart. I did find a table from 10/16 that seemed to indicate a party ID breakdown of 43D/39R. Seems like that gap is bit too narrow. It also showed 44 and under voters at 42% with 45 and over voters at 58%. Does that sound right?

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JoeThePlumber:

(Singing Simon & Garfunkel)

Slip sldin' away...
Slip slidin' away...
You know the nearer your destination the more you'r slip slidin' away.

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1503er:

LOL! That's hysterical.

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RaleighNC:

Interesting.

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JoeThePlumber:


9/28: M+2
10/2: O+3
10/5: O+7
10/8: O+3
10/9: O+8
10/13: O+13
10/16: O+4
10/20: O+1

Looks about right. O peaked on the 14th. Oops!

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Northeastern Republican:

either this poll is a gignormous outlier (which i suspect) or it is on to something no one else is picking up on. my guess is the former.

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boomshak:

WOW.

Either GWU/Battleground is the worst pollster in history, or they are ahead of the curve.

This poll has gone from Obama +13 to Obama +1 in a week! That is pretty amazing.

CONCLUSION:
This is the nightmare scenario for Obama. A major poll which actually shows the race tied or McCain ahead. That frees the other polls to fall in line if they so choose without "going out on a limb".

We'll have to watch this one.

BTW, for this poll to go from +4 to +1 in a single day means that McCain MUST have polled about +1 or +2 yesterday.

Who knows. It's fun to watch as the various pollsters jockey for leadership. Since RCP reports this poll, it will be hard for the MSM to ignore it.

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JoeThePlumber:

(Johnny Cash)

I hear the train a comin'
It's comin' round the bend.....

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Boomshak

"if they so choose"? You have a bizarre and faulty understanding of how polling is done. Even partisan pollsters don't fiddle with the results; good or bad or biased polling is by solid or faulty methodology (weighting, etc).

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BOOMFAIL:

This pollster is the whackiest mavericky poll out there.

btw- When Zogby had Obama up by only 3, the sky was falling, McCain was surging, the sirens were flashing all over Drudge, etc. Now that Zogby has Obama up by 8 points, Drudge seems to ignore Zogby. While I still think Zogby is on Crack, and individual State polls are of most importance to me, this link is on yahoo today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081021/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll

VA Ras poll has Obama up 10 points yesterday. If that holds up, it will indeed be a short night on November 4th. Keep in mind that VA closes the polls at 7pm Eastern, which is fairly early for the rest of the country where voting is still going on. IfVA is called for Obama shortly after 7 PM eastern, there will be a Tsunami throughout the rest of the country for Obama.

VOTE NOW if you can!

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boomshak:

MCCAIN IN PA:

Honestly, I just don't get it. Unless McCain has some internal polling that shows something different, I don't see hwo he can win PA.

Why the heck isn't McCain in IN, MO, VA and FL?

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Steve_OH:

@JoeThePlumber:

"This just in...

"Michelle's 'Whitey' video will be released one week prior to the election...."

Right. Just like the audio tape of her call to African Press International. You know, the one that has been slated for release "tomorrow," every day for the last week?


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paradski:

These guys are crazy. They are clearly messing with ID %s.

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boomshak:

It's funny. Yesterday all the polls grouped around +5. Today they explode all over the place.

It seems as if these second tier polls (Zogby, Battleground, etc) are trying to be bold and make a name for themselves of being the first top predict the "final" trend.

Onviously Battleground and Zogby have differing opinions on what that trend will be.

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1503er:

So is it 50 - 46? Some indicated above that the numbers here are wrong.

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DTM:

Just a casual reminder:

Between methodological differences (aka "house effects"), sampling error, and the sheer number of national polls these days, we should expect considerable spread to periodically appear. Indeed, in that sense the recent convergence in the national polls was more of an exception than the rule. Anyway, with it seeming likely that the race has tightened a bit, the polls on the tighter side of this spread are likely to be quite tight, and this appears to be such a case.

In short, this sudden divergence among the polls really shouldn't be a surprise. Fortunately, we have tools like Pollster's charts to sort through this scientifically.

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boomshak:

ACTUALLY, ALL OF THESE POLLS (ESPECIALLY MSM POLLS) ARE PRETTY MUCH BULLSH*T UNTIL A WEEK OUT.

They really only get serious when the election is right at hand.

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JCK:

Boom,

McCain has no money, and if he's fighting in MO, VA, FL, and IN, he's already lost the game.

From the recent reports, McCain has conceded CO. If McCain really believes CO cannot be won, he HAS to flip a Kerry state. No point in bothering with WI or MN, which are only about 10 or 11 EV. Might as well bet the whole enchilada on PA, which is 21 EV.

It's a long-shot strategy, but that's where McCain is now. Behind, with only a few conceivable paths to 270.

He has to hope that the national numbers tighten, that NC, IN, MO, FL, OH, and NV all stay in his column. Under the "win PA" strategy, it is worth noting that he does NOT have to win VA.

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PA-John:

@Boom

This is a 5-day poll that does not do weekends. What happened here is that the night that that put Obama up to +13 (10/13) finally rolled off this morning - I'm gueesing that night was some sort of insane number for Obama. I think McCain did very well late last week and may have been up on 10/15 and 10/16 by a few points, since it went down to +4 by Friday.

So no I don't think he "won" last night, but probably won last Weds. and Thursday (probably big). This Poll has data that goes back a full week, and has no p

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Trosen:

Who cares. You really think there will be any more polls that show a 1 point race?

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mandalorianarmy:

What I hate the most is Joe's invoking of the late great Johnny Cash.


"I wear the black for the poor and the beaten down,
Livin' in the hopeless, hungry side of town,
I wear it for the prisoner who has long paid for his crime,
But is there because he's a victim of the times."

Yeah that sounds like a McCain campaign rally.

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Joe Sixpack:

Yet another sign that this race will be much closer than we'd like and that we may be in for a nasty surprise come election night. I find it dismaying that people are dismissing the polls that don't show favorable results, yet they had no problem with the same pollster when the numbers seemed to be of their side. This poll should be a reminder that this is no time to be complacent or overconfident. If you think it'd be easy for an African American candidate to win, think again. I am not going to fantasize about landslide or that sort of silly talk, a simple win in the electoral college would be good enough. But even that might not come easy.

Don't let up. Get the vote out. You can lead in every lap but lose the last lap, and you lose the race.

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PA-John:

@Boom

"Onviously Battleground and Zogby have differing opinions on what that trend will be."

This one is usually a few days late at catching trends becuase of the small sample and the fact it's has week old data.

Right now this poll is catching up to late last week when there was tightening, but is extra volatile since they use a small nightly sample. (200 per night in this one compared to 1000 in Rasmussen and Gallup).

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paradski:

10/6-9/08 R-38 D-44 I-16 (D+6)

10/9,12-15 R-39 D-43 I-16 (D+4)

I'm definitley curious where they are now.

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southern angler:

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."

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hou04:

INDIANA (PPP)

Obama 48
McCain 46

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deeznutsrepubs:

Hey

joethetard/boomshat/kipcrap/boscrap & other repub trolls-

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

TICK-TOCK

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1503er:

Joe Sixpack,

I couldn't agree with you more. The bofo hysterical LANDSLIDE, BABY chants here seem really lame to me. Obama will win or lose by a squeak. He's AA so in all likelihood it's going to be on the side of a squeak loss. Not bad considering he's AA.

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Trosen:

1503er:
Joe Sixpack,

"I couldn't agree with you more. The bofo hysterical LANDSLIDE, BABY chants here seem really lame to me. Obama will win or lose by a squeak. He's AA so in all likelihood it's going to be on the side of a squeak loss. Not bad considering he's AA."


Kudos for not even trying to hide the fact you're openly rooting for prejudice to carry McCain over the top. How very.. well, Republican of you.

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JoeThePlumber:

You are right. There is no "Whitey" video. I don't think. ;)

Road to 270 for McCain (without VA):

157 solid red states
27 FL (McCain +1)
15 NC (Obama +3)
20 OH (McCain +2)
11 IN (McCain +4)
11 MO (Obama +5)
5 NV (Obama +3)
3 MT or ND (McCain + 5, Even)

21 PA (longshot) or 21 (VA and CO)
----------------
270

I beleive their internal polls suggest they can turn out a lot of people that cling to guns and religion. I'm sure Biden's "Mark ny word's...There will be an international crisis in the first six months" gaffe will scare the bejesus out of some of those people.

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mysticlaker:

Wow, that Indiana poll is the first one in weeks. That is huge.

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Inkan1969:

@Joe Sixpack

It seems to me that the people most guilty of cherrypicking polls have been the trolls. Boomshak, the asshole calling himself Joe the Plumber, 1503er, they always hype up a poll that gives McCain a good result, and then pretend it doesn't exist when the polls lean to Obama later on. Heck, after weeks of Boomshak annoyingly screaming about the polls indicating a McCain surge, he now says the polls don't mean ----. I think more people than not treat these polls with the grains of salt they deserve. Battleground and Zogby never got much respect regardless of what they reported, except from wingnuts.

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Trosen:

mystic, I'd like to see several more IN polls. That pollster is highly suspect, at least in my book. I do know however that the Obama campaign has dumped a ton of money in TV/radio ads there.

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Inkan1969:

@Joe Sixpack

It seems to me that the people most guilty of cherrypicking polls have been the trolls. Boomshak, the asshole calling himself Joe the Plumber, 1503er, they always hype up a poll that gives McCain a good result, and then pretend it doesn't exist when the polls lean to Obama later on. Heck, after weeks of Boomshak annoyingly screaming about the polls indicating a McCain surge, he now says the polls don't mean ----. I think more people than not treat these polls with the grains of salt they deserve. Battleground and Zogby never got much respect regardless of what they reported, except from wingnuts.

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MDB1974:

@Joe Sixpack. I totally agree. The mindless rants that only see one side are of no value. Granted, it would be better for O if this poll was up than down. However, if you look at fluctuation I believe this is the most unstable poll in the bunch. It was up 3 for O a few days later up 13 now, 5 days later up 1.

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Inkan1969:

For Indiana, we really need to see more than poll like that to take an Obama surge seriously there. I didn't take SUSA's Florida poll seriously until Rasmussen backed it up with similar results. I hope PPP's results come through.

BTW: That "whitey" lie was debunked just days after someone made it up months ago.

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JerryTheAngel:

The grass roots organization and ground games of the candidates aren't being captured by the polling.The differences are stark. This election is not close because John McCain did not organize like Bush/Rove did in 2004 and because Senator Obama has put into place a historical ground game. I don't pay attention to any of these polls.

Obama will win the election with a minimum of 350 electoral votes.

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1503er:

I'm not a Republican. I'm a liberal independent who is voting for McKinney since I live in CA.

No I'm not a Republican nor do I support McSame. What I am, though, is pragmatic and realistic.

Most people thought Kerry was going to win. HAHA.

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1503er:

JerryTheAngel,

Yea right.

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Joe Sixpack:

@Inkan1969

The overconfidence some posters here are drunk with greatly alarms me in terms of the volunteering effort (but then, if someone's writing numerous posts all day, he/she is contributing much to the ground game to begin with). I am just worried people are letting up and not bothering to vote or to get the vote out. At www.electoral-vote.com one can see that this day in 2004 Kerry was leading Bush 271:257. And that was only 1.5 weeks before the election on Nov. 2.

The thing is, public opinions can change at an instant, whether from the Joe the Plumber stunt, another Biden gaffe, etc., and these pretty, sophisticated trend estimates at pollster, 538 or others are too clumsy to respond to shifts in public mood. Winning all previous polls doesn't guarantee that you'll in the last one, which is the only one that counts.

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s.b.:

Battleground is a bipartisan poll. They changed their weighting about three weeks ago in favour of Democrats and Obama. previously it was +3 Dem. It went to +6 Dem i believe or they let it float.


If you look at the graph, the reason the number changed significantly today is the dropping of Obama's best polling day, not necessarily what McCain polled last night.

This poll will go up to at least a 3 point spread tomorrow. Less means mcCain is polling stonly tonight. more and obama is polling better.

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Joe Sixpack:

Make that "he/she isn't contributing much" in the last post. Sorry for the typo.

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JoeThePlumber:

PPP said yesterday that Obama polled better in IN than FL. Can't wait to see the FL numbers.

The IN numbers won't hold up for Obama. Everything is trending to McCain.

1. Obama peaked too soon
2. "Spread the Wealth" pissed people off
3. Joe and Tito show is working
4. Biden is a gift from God (WWIII predictions are awesome)
5. Disaffected Hillary voters (especially in PA)
6. Bradley affect
7. America loves the underdog
8. Three headed monster (Pelosi, Reid and Obama) is frightening
9. Acorn pissed people off (fraud is bad)
10. Obama hates puppies

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PortlandRocks:

I'm confused. Isn't this a 3 day tracking poll? I looked at their chart and the last 3 days was O +4 twice and O +1. Wouldn't that be a 3 day everage of O +3? Oh well. I don't give a poll showing a 12% swing in a week any credit, especially when NOT ONE OTHER poll shows this.

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1503er:

Careful Joe Sixpack, you'll be vilified and labeled a closest Republican and McCain supporter. There's no tolerance here for looking at the polls with a pragmatic eye. One which you have. You see exactly what I see. If one only goes and follows the "This day in 2004" link on Electoral-Vote.com they'd get it.

Hell, Kerry was winning the exit polls on election day!

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Inkan1969:

@JoeSixpack

The reason Electoral-Vote shows that 2004 result was that back in 2004, that website only showed results for the most recent poll, and didn't bother much about the credibility of that poll. So that website could get swung easily by outliers. Notice that the results right before that peak and right after show no big Kerry lead. In 2008, electoral-vote changed its procedure to averaging polls, leaving out partisan polls.

I worry about complacency as well, but I think the Obama campaign has been agressively addressing that concern in their speeches.

------------------

BTW: I'm certain that 1503er, allenkeyesisawesome, and southernangler aren't actual McCain supporters. They're just jerks who haven't gotten a life beyond trolling. I suspect they use one of those radomizer programs that randomly generate a republican talking point that they then pass off as posts.

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PortlandRocks:

JoeThePlumber will you PROMISE to be here on Nov. 4th? We will all be waiting for you babe!

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JoeThePlumber:

I will no doubt be here November 4th. I may be in a drunken stupor from the victory celebration but I will be here.

I'll even be here if Obama wins. My fear is that many of you won't be here if McCain wins.

In all seriousness, hide your razorblades and lock the medicine cabinet. A McCain loss for me is expected. An Obama loss for you is catastrophic.

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1503er:

Inkan1961,

No, I just see things similar to what Joe Sixpack is saying. Y'all are too giddy about Obama's chances. He's not nearly as far ahead as it seems. Elections aren't typically a blow out and it's especially not going to be a blow out with the first AA candidate. You can invoke all your hate and talking points towards me for saying that, I can take it. But you and others who are, as Joe Sixpack says, "drunk with overconfidence" do that to your own peril.

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DTM:

I realized long ago that almost anyone with an interest in an election is going to end up cherry-picking polls if left to their own devices--me included.

Which is why I very much appreciate a place like Pollster. Basically, Pollster's charts provide an unbiased reality check for all of us, regardless of affiliation.

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DCDemocrat:

If this poll had come out on Sunday, I would have fainted away dead. I find it pretty easy to dismiss this morning.

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PA-John:

@Portland

"I'm confused. Isn't this a 3 day tracking poll? I looked at their chart and the last 3 days was O +4 twice and O +1. Wouldn't that be a 3 day everage of O +3? Oh well. I don't give a poll showing a 12% swing in a week any credit, especially when NOT ONE OTHER poll shows this."

This is a 5-day tracking poll that skips Fridat and Saturday. It curently includes data from last Tuesday, Weds., Thursday, Sunday and Monday. It's picking up the good polling days that McCain had the middle of last week. It dropped last Monday which was the night before Obama posted the +13.


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Inkan1969:

An indication as to how much of an asshole the guy calling himself "JoethePlumber" is; this obsession with razorblades. That crosses the lines. What kind of a violent sicko thinks people getting killed by razorblades is funny?

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Ryguy:

the only reason that this poll pisses me off if because it lowers the discourse for the next 24 hours. now, no matter what the other polls say the republican posters will be posting about how its a statistical tie and obama is a dead man. just remember why we sites like RCP exist...

RCP average- +5.7 for obama.

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paradski:

What's really funny here is that RCP includes this "tracker" but refuses to include Kos/R2k.

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original_goodfella:

Republicans are so cute... LOL... Enjoy this one. Post it on your bedroom walls. It's going to be as retroactively hilarious as photos of your parents in winged collars on November 5th.

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southern angler:

At least some of the polls are still showing a larger Obama lead. If were a dem I don't think that I would mess with the long voting lines
since Obama is so far up in the polls. Might as well just stay home.

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DTM:

@southern angler

Of course the logic works in reverse too: since Obama is so far up in the polls, why should a Republican make the effort to say in line and futilely vote for McCain?

The thing is, the long lines do in fact exist, so somehow people are defying your expectations. Which I believe is a good thing--after all, we should want people to vote, right?

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cinnamonape:

14-16,19, 20th...that's 1000 polled over 5 days? 200/day? The MOE on each of those daily averages would be very high. And then they take those and create a 5 day average? And trends? Yikes.

A few internals a little off here could make big differences.

And why the deletion of Friday and Saturday...but the use of Sunday? All of this seems really odd. It's almost as if they were tossing results they didn't like.

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kkpollster:

Joe: i've heard the MO tape rumor too. I just can't believe it is true she is too smart and sophisticated to ever do something like this. I also find it hard to believe that it wouldn't have leaked by now, O would have leaked it early to get it out of the way.

The only pause I have is Bob Beckel on Fox, seemed truly bothered by this possibility. What evidence do you have, Larry Johnson is a nut.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!

BRING IT ON HOME MACK!!!!!!

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sotonightthatimightsee:

"This just in...

Michelle's "Whitey" video will be released one week prior to the election. This will play well in PA which does not have early voting. If PA turns, Obama is in serious trouble."


My dear fellow democrats,

As a former democrat I can tell you with all certainty that support for Hillary Clinton here would have been so strong..McCain's support would have never past 40%! However, your candidate's support IS soft..as evident by his dwindling poll numbers and McCain is coming back strong!

If what you are saying is true about the "Whitey Tape", he might as well drop out now and let Hillary or Biden take over. No way he wins PA, OH, WV, VA, NC, IN, MO or even CO! He'd be doomed the day it drops!

Having said that..there does not need to be a "Whitey tape" for him to lose. If he loses PA, that means OH will fall too! THERE IS NO WAY HE COULD WIN WITHOUT THOSE 2 STATES...NO WAY!!

Signed: A former democrat

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John:

This poll should jump by a few point tomorrow, the day's polling sample on the 14th (the day which will fall off the tracker tomorrow), must have had McCain up by double figures.

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chrisk314:

Actually, the 1% and 9% (ABC) are encouraging developments for understanding what is happening. With this many polls, we should be expecting outliers. If all of the polls were bunched closely it would look more like some of the pollsters were weighting/massaging the data in a way to stay close to the averages of the pollsters. This type of error is hard to detect because we find comfort in pollster agreement. Variability is expected and today's polls seem to generally confirm a 5 to 6 point Obama lead.

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RossPhx:

This is the Powell effect. It's what happens when someone is endorsed by a washed-up Republican.

Seriously, does anyone know how these tracking polls account for early voters? If someone has already voted, do they still ask how they plan to vote? Maybe what we are seeing here has eliminated the early Obama voters.

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