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US: Obama 49, McCain 41 (Hotline 10/13-15)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/13-15, 08; 817 LV 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 41

 

Comments
raisethewhiteflag:

Colin Powell Is Ready To Endorse


Lawrence O'DonnellPosted October 15, 2008 | 09:22 AM (EST)

When Colin Powell turns off his TV after the final presidential debate, he will have learned everything he is going to learn about the candidates vying to succeed his former boss, George W. Bush. Powell has made it clear that he has been thinking about an endorsement for a long time but wanted to hear more from the candidates before making his choice. It now seems beyond doubt that Colin Powell will endorse Barack Obama and thereby hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Republican campaign to hold onto the White House.

The recent ugliness of the McCain-Palin rally audiences cannot be lost on Colin Powell. And Powell is not one to ignore a 14 point lead in a New York Times poll. But most important for Powell and the press will be his explicit rejection of the Bush-McCain approach to Iraq, Iran and the rest of the world.

Powell's endorsement will be perfectly timed to dominate a news cycle or two. It will give Obama the one thing he still needs more of--credibility as Commander-In-Chief. And Sarah Palin's speechwriters will be hard pressed to come up with a condescending quip about it.

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jonny87:

were less than 3 weeks out, why so little state polling????

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Thatcher:

Public Policy Polling found a West Virginia sample and will be in the field within the next week!

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/west-virginia-update.html

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Trosen:

raise, I read that yesterday, but I'm not so sure Powell will publicly endorse anyone. He'd be burning a LOT of bridges and cutting ties with a ton of decades-long friends and colleagues. Powell is a staunch GOP loyalist. It would really be something if he came out and publicly endorsed Obama. I'll believe it when I see it.

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muckinello:

This poll is unchanged and therefore not considered by Boom

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sunnymi:
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1503er:

Ohio goes yellow...

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Trosen:

"Plumber Joe" is a thinly veiled GOP supporter and contributor.. but whatever. The vast majority of americans AND small business owners gross less than 250K, so they know their taxes won't go up.

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NW Patrick:

Oh wow OH went yellow because of an INTERNET poll. He's using internet polls now in the averages? WOW.

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mysticlaker:

gallup 49-43 O -1....

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Trosen:

Yea.. it came out the same day as an ARG +5 Obama poll. I do think it is more accurate to put OH in the "yellow" column.. but internet polls are more or less garbage.

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raisethewhiteflag:

When mccains comes rite out on national tv in front of 70 million people and says he does not want to spread the wealth when 69 million of those people are cutting way back on everyday neccesities, you have to wonder if this man actually has any common sense at all.

mccain campain jusrt cant keep the foot out of the mouth..

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boomshak:

GALLUP LEAD DOWN TO 6 FROM 11 IN ONE WEEK! LEAD AMONGST LIKELY VOTERS FALLS TO 2!

"The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error."

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Trosen:

And the Gallup "traditional" LV has it as +2 Obama, within the MOE.. get ready for it.. any minute now..

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NW Patrick:

boomshak so even if this is just a "traditional" race Obama still leads by the same margin Bush won by. RIGHT?

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sunnymi:

Joe the Plumber: No new taxes -- and no old ones, either

Joe the Plumber really is no fan of paying taxes.

According to records from the Lucas County (OH) Court of Common Pleas found by my colleague Avi Zenilman, Samuel J. Wurzelbacher has a lien placed against him to the tune of $1,182.92.

The lien is dated from January of '07.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Joe_the_Plumber_No_new_taxes__and_no_old_oneseither.html?showall

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1503er:

Well have to wait until next week to see if McCain continues to chip away at Obama's lead.

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Trosen:

haha.. he beat me to it.. I must be psychic

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muckinello:

Boom.. we are SCARED... halloween is almost here and I will dress up as Grumpy McCain this year!

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cambridge blue:

Obama's Gallup lead grew after each debate. Will probably happen again.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick:

Are you saying that internet users somehow don't have opinions that matter?

Shame on you democrats...you say you are the ones who are embracing technology, but only when it suits your narrow minded biases.

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muckinello:

Tied by Sunday! Boom predicted it!

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Thatcher:

boomshak is like a flea - jumps on the back of whichever dog is the closest - and sucks the life's blood out of it.

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NW Patrick:

Dont we do this every week then by Sunday Boom disppears when the #'s rebound? LOL In the absolute WORST scenerio of any poll Obama still leads by the BUSH margin that won him the last election with SEVERAL SEVERAL polls ranging from 5 to 14 percent, state polls in BG looking great, Shak I understand you need some good news. Have it today. It's yours:) But just wait.

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kerrchdavis:

anyone notice Intrade is now at 87%?

jeez.

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Thatcher:

@cambridge blue -

yeah, normally Gallup tights on Wed/Thu ... and then widens back on towards the weekend ... one of the rare exceptions was that last week's debate was on Tuesday and partially the reason why this wasn't so.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Hurry up boom and buy up as many McCain Intrade contracts as you can afford. You could make a killing!

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sunnymi:


Now Boomshak is in love with Gallup :-)

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome no but we had INTERNET polls showing McCain within 4 or 5 in ILLINOIS... this is why Zogby is rated as one of the WORST pollsters. They are far from perfecting the internet methods.

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boomshak:

Every single moonbat in this room was predicting a 15-20 point Obama lead by now, and yet, Rasmussen has O+4 and Gallup has it O+2.

Now if I were an Obama supporter, that would have me a bit freaked out.

And we haven't even gotten to the time when conservatives usually surge at the end.

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chgo1:

Joe the plumber related to Charles Keating...no, he was not a plant or anything. Damn these rethugs are sleazy.

http://www.eisenstadtgroup.com/2008/10/15/joe-the-plumber-wurzelbacher-related-to-charles-keating-oops/

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wakeup:

Sunnymi,
Keep attacking Joe Wurzelbacher... watch the polls narrow.

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carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
*Traditional


Today average: Obama 49.4 McCain 44.4(+0.6)

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.2 McCain 44.4
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 51 McCain 43
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 46
Traditional

Yesterday average: Obama 49.4 McCain 43.8

Yes guys, McCain is doing better. Boomy, today is your day, :-)!!! Enjoy it!!

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Thatcher:

@NW Patrick -

Also - yesterday before the debate, Zogby stated their polling was completed for the day.

Which means Zogby's tracking poll is completed while most of the country is still at work (1st shift and office employees). Who does that leave at home to answer the phone???? Older people, self employed, stay-at-homes, under-employed, 2nd shifters (because 3rd shifters usually sleep during 1st shift hours).

So ... helps understand why Zogby's polls skew tighter than most.

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Pat:

@boomshak,

This is actually good for Obama. A tight race will make his supporters work harder and not get complacent. More phone calls, more donations, more GOTV.

I was really scared that +14 Obama polls might end up hearting Obama's chances by not getting as many of his supporters to the polls on election day.

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boomshak:

@sunnymi:

Gallup and I are sleeping together, but we have an open relationship.

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NW Patrick:

Yah let's not get too excited. Nothing fundamental has happened to change this race. It's noise. Obama has a HUGE financial advantage, big leads in several BG states, no debates left, a 30 min. tv spot, an amazing ground game. The reason we are seeing so much fluctuation in the polls is because pollsters are having the hardest time EVER determining turn out and voter weighting. National stats show around a 10% dem ID advantage. Zogby and Ras are using extremely conservative #'s which I think is great. Shows us the floor.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

In fairness to Boom, most people do expect the race to tighten a bit in the last weeks.

But absent some unexpected, earth-shattering event (of the kind that neither campaign could contrive) I don't see how even Boom could believe McCain has a realistic shot at winning this thing.

Enjoy your silver lining.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick:

Well, how do you know that Illinois won't be competitive? If I was Obama's constituent, I'd be very unhappy with his job performance as well. Plus I am counting on divine intervention come election day.

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Thatcher:

boomshak - actually Gore surged in the late part of the month in 2000. Neither Dole nor Bush 41 surged in late October. Bush 43 was already ahead right now in 2004. Reagan was already ahead at this time in 1988. Reagan surged in 1980.

Also, guess I am not a "moonbat" because I never believed that we Obama would be +14/+15 at this time.

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kerrchdavis:

@alan

"Well, how do you know that Illinois won't be competitive? "

roflmao!!!

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sunnymi:


@Boomshak

I thought Gallup was older than 24-28 year old :-)

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Dude face it, your man is falling apart. I told you America would not vote for a left/left ticket so easily.

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syrac818:

Hi Everybody,

Long time reader, first time poster. It's probably a very bad idea that I have registered on here, as message boards have become a horrible time drain for me, LOL... So I'll try to keep posting to a bare minimum. Just two questions/thoughts:

1) Not sure if this has been discussed, but has anyone else considered that Monday's 900+ gain on the DOW gave McCain this bump? It was widely reported as "The Largest One Day Gain in History". It just seems to me that the polls following (Tuesday & Wednesday) showed a boost for McCain. Of course, it's all fallen apart since then, but my observations.

2) InTrade now has the race at over an 86/14 split for Obama post debate. This is the biggest advantage of the entire race by far. I know the big money plays there, which obviously makes me wonder if these guys are on to something I'm not.

Thoughts?

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Inkan1969:

@NW Patrick

Something has changed. McCain did poorly in his last debate, and the market crashed again, hurting people's confidence in its stability. Today's numbers can't reflect any of that.

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boomshak:

@syrac818:

Intrade can shift on a dime.

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wakeup:

syrac818,
It is a fact that Obama needs the economy to collapse to gain in the polls.

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carl29:

Let's use the 3 most popular tracking polls:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
*Traditional


Today average: Obama 49.3 McCain 45.6(+0.5)

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.2 McCain 44.4
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 46
Traditional

Yesterday average: Obama 49 McCain 45.1

O.K boomy, any way you see it Obama has stayed at the same level and McCain has gained around .5% of support. We'll see in the days to come :-) Congratulations boomy!!

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Thatcher:

@Inkan1989 ... of course today's numbers can't reflect that ... because most of the polls were completed prior to the completion of the debate. As for the stock market - I never believed any 1 day's increase/decrease helps/hurts McCain ...

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sunnymi:


@syrac

Intrade has for the first time gone ahead of IEM.
I am not sure if they have any new info that we don't have but my observation has been that Intrade fluctuates a lot more than IEM does.

IEM: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@boomshak

"Dude face it, your man is falling apart."

Are you trying to be ironic?

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raisethewhiteflag:

wakeup:
Sunnymi,
Keep attacking Joe Wurzelbacher... watch the polls narrow.

Posted on October 16, 2008 1:14 PM

/////////////////////////////////////////////

ya until someone digs up that the guy is a reformed child molester or something and its plastered all over the news!

these games always backfire, because mccsame shoots from the mouth before investigating peoples backgrounds!

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zoot:

Has anyone chart4ed the correlation (if any) between 3-4 of the leading national polls and polling results in the major battleground states: VA, NC, OH, PA, FL? (Yes, I know that the states don't poll with the frequency of the national pollsters.)

Unless there's something in the national numbers that tells us what's happening on the ground where it counts, looking at a national poll is not much more than a cheap thrill.

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timontheleft:

@ItsTheEconomyStupid

He's just trash talking; it's the one thing he's good at.

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wakeup:

raisethewhiteflag,
child molester??? you mean like Frank Marshal Davis?

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maddiekat:

boomcrap

grasping at straws!

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boomshak:

A POLLING THEORY:

A election day nears, pollsters want to get it right. If they miss big, no one pays for their polls next time.

I doubt Rasmussen and Gallup will diverge greatly from here on out as they provide each other cover. I also think most of the lesser polls (Hotline, GWU, etc) will move towards Rasmussen/Gallup as well like a gravity well.

Just a theory.

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Stonecreek:

Can anyone tell me what this exchange on Supreme Court nominees (from the transcript of last night's debate) means?

Schieffer: But even if it was someone -- even someone who had a history of being for abortion rights, you would consider them?

McCain: I would consider anyone in their qualifications. I do not believe that someone who has supported Roe v. Wade that would be part of those qualifications. But I certainly would not impose any litmus test.

It resembles English, but only in its sound. Is McCain saying that a potential nominee who has a history of supporting Roe V. Wade is by definition unqualified for consideration? Or is he saying something else? Or does he know?

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MDB1974:

So much for the theory that Mccain can't use a computer. His login is boomshak.

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Disco Stu:

Yeah...Zogby's INTERNET polls have been all over the place. (For instance...BOOM might sign up to take one...AND e-mail 100 of his closest friends, etc, etc...thus skewing it quickly, and vice versa.)
Ohio's still light blue...though closer to being a toss-up than Florida or Virginia at this point.

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wakeup:

and remember... Obama knocked on Joe's door.

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wakeup:

Disco,
take a closer look, Ohio is yellow.

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timontheleft:

@Stonecreek

I caught that too. It's like he was saying "I won't use a litmus test, except when I do."

Just another erratic response.

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Inkan1969:

We've had several national poll tightenings over the past few weeks, usually leading up to a debate. Yet the curious thing, tightenings are not happening in state polls. There should be tightenings to match the national tightenings, but it hasn't happened. It could be that the nationals will tighten but Obama's electoral college lead stays strong.

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carl29:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
*Traditional


Today average: Obama 49.3 McCain 45.6(+1.4)

MONDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.9 McCain 43.6
Gallup*, Obama 51 McCain 44
*Traditional

Monday average: Obama 49.6 McCain 44.2

Boomy I'm making you happy, isn't it? There are the numbers that reflect the ground that your guy has covered in 3 days, 1.4% in the 3 most popular tracking polls: Ras, Zogby, Gallup. Congratulations boomy!!! We'll see if the trend stays on course :-)

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1magine:

OK Nat polls have tightened - and state polls in 2 weeks should show this.

So follow BO's advice and make phone calls, work the GOTV effort, donate. Do what you can, or blame yourself for the next 4 years.

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NHBlue:

with regards to alankeyesisawesome & apologies the Arthur C. Clarke :

Any sufficiently lunatic ideology is indistinguishable from parody.

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zen:


Intrade is looking at the state polls, not national polls.
And since debate is gone, there is no great momentum for Maccain.

unless horrible terrorist attack is happening in america, Obama's victory is almost certain.

His battel ground state polls are better than national polls.

So, bomshack, don't be so excited... if Maccain wants to win this election, he should have 3-4% lead nationally.... maybe even that is not enough.

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sunnymi:


CNU Center for Public Policy Poll - Virginia

October 11-14; 500 LV; 4.38%
49.2% Barack Obama
43.2% John McCain
7.6% Undecided

http://universityrelations.cnu.edu/news/2008/10_16_08poll.html

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orange24:

Keep it coming! But, please, for the sake of everyone's sanity, please tell us all how McCain wins the electoral map. How? In what parallel universe of your diluted minds does McCain dig himself out of this electoral hole? Anybody? Thought so...Enjoy those daily tracking numbers. It's all you have.

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NW Patrick:

Wow every pollster shows VA deep blue. McCain loses this ONE state? It's over early on Nov. 4th..then we sit back and relax.

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wakeup:

Do battle ground state polls lag behind national trends?

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JCK:

We'll see how this debates affects polling. McCain did the things Boom wanted: mentioned the "spread the wealth around" comment and brought up Ayers.

We'll see if these suggestions pay off.

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maddiekat:

The tracking polls are finally getting to where they all will be come Nov 4th and that is with Obama leading by 4-6 points.

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Kile Thomson:

after debate:

McCain Surge ?

Obama Surge ?

surprise !

developing..

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NW Patrick:

Can anyone tell me how McCain wins the election losing VA?

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Barr McKinney Nader Undecided Other
CNN/Time 10/11-14/08 698 LV 43 53 - - - 3 1
Zogby (Internet) 10/9-13/08 872 LV 44 52 - - - 4 -
FOX/Rasmussen 10/12/08 1000 LV 47 50 1 0 0 2 -
PPP (D) 10/6-7/08 917 LV 43 51 - - - 6 -
FOX/Rasmussen 10/5/08 1000 LV 48 50 1 0 0 1 -
SurveyUSA 10/4-5/08 666 LV 43 53 - - - 1 3
Suffolk 10/3-5/08 600 LV 39 51 0 0 0 9 -

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KipTin:

Hey... Stonecreek... McCain supports judges who are "Constitutionalists" and many many believe that Roe vs. Wade decision is not based on our Constitution. Make sense now?

Also McCain is a Federalist aka "state rights." Also based on Constitution.

The "appointing judges" debate is really not about Roe vs. Wade but about the Supreme Court expanding federal power to the detriment of state power. Get it?

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mysticlaker:

Joe's no plumber (not legally) and other tidbits...

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418

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Batony:

@NW Patrick:

He cannot win w/o winning Va. That's why he is there on Saturday and I'm pretty sure will be there plenty of more times. Fortunately, for McCain it still is Virginia and he has two weeks to catch up. And when I say it still is Virginia I mean the strong military presence in the Hampton Roads area, the Christian right in the SW and in the Norfolk area...and rural Va.

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KipTin:

No pollster shows Virgina "deep blue". Why exaggerate?

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syrac818:

Oh man, I knew it was a bad idea to register on here! I have an exam... today, and I should be studying. But instead:

NEW ZOGBY STATE POLLING NUMBERS (10/9-10/13)

Virginia:
Obama - 51.8
McCain - 44.0

Pennslyvania:
Obama - 51.6
McCain - 40.2

New Mexico:
Obama - 51.2
McCain - 43.5

Missouri:
Obama - 50.1
McCain - 44.4

Nevada:
Obama - 47.5
McCain - 47.1

Colorado:
Obama - 47.5
McCain - 46.5

Florida:
Obama - 48.2
McCain - 47.1

Indiana:
Obama - 44.3
McCain - 48.5

North Carolina:
Obama - 49.5
McCain - 46.1

New Hampshire:
Obama - 47.7
McCain - 42.6

Ohio:
Obama - 44.8
McCain - 49.5


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1593


NOW BACK TO STUDYING - Do NOT let me come back here!

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KipTin:

Wow.. Obamanation is now attacking "Joe the Plumber." Beyond petty.

____________________

political_junki:

Obama +6 in MO but -5 in OH, typical ZOGBY....
Rest of them make sense

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@NWPatrick

Virginia will be tight, but that's the least of McCain's worries.

- Number of Kerry states in which McCain has a chance: Zero (0 EVs)

- Number of Bush states in which McCain has no chance: Two (IA + NM = 12 EVs, bringing Obama to 264.)

- Number of Bush states in which McCain is in serious trouble: Eight. (CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA = 111 EVs, of which Obama needs six.)

- Obama's paths to the White House: Eight. (Win any state in which he's not currently blowing McCain out of the water.)

- McCain's paths to the White House: One. (Win every single state in which he's not yet getting blown out of the water, including VA and FL.)

- Likelihood of McCain pulling it off: See Intrade.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow McCain down 7 in VA and down over 5 in MO? Now that Zogby internet is suddently reputable ILL TAKE IT! HAHAHA!

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DTM:

McCain's answer on Roe was a moment of accidental honesty. He was supposed to say only:

(1) He has no litmus test;
(2) He will pick highly qualified judges; and
(3) He favors strict constructionists.

(1) is designed to make pro-choice people feel better. (2) is designed to suggest that the Senate will have no business second-guessing his choices. And (3) is a coded message to the Religious Right, basically telling them not to worry because he doesn't really mean (1).

The problem appears to be that he somewhat conflated (2) and (3), then actually admitted the implication of what he was saying is that he didn't really mean (1). In other words, he let the rest of us in on the code he was using to communicate with the Religious Right, which he wasn't supposed to do.

____________________

wakeup:

Do me a favor... Keep attacking Joe Wurzelbacher and see where it gets you.
Have a good day everybody!

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NW Patrick:

Zogby winning NC by 3 but down 5 in OH? LOL

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Basil:

Joe "The Plumber" is a figment of his own imagination.

"I'm planning to make just enough money at some time in the near future to put me in a tax bracket that's 3% higher than it is under the idiot that got us into Iraq and helped deregulate the stock market, and which is the same rate as in the Clinton admin when the economy was better."

My advice to "The Plumber": get an accountant, wear a hat to cover your skinhead when you're out in the sun, stop saying stuff like "Obama tap dances like Sammy Davis, Jr.", pay your back taxes, and if you buy that plumbing business structure your writeoffs so you make $249K/yr for a while. And since you're not registered to vote, apparently, don't bother.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@KipTin:

Obama doesn't know what he's in for by attacking Joe the plumber. He will have a mutiny on his hands for sure.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@KipTin:

Obama doesn't know what he's in for by attacking Joe the plumber. He will have a mutiny on his hands for sure.

____________________

Inkan1969:

Oh, great. More Zogby numbers to mess everything up.

About the "traditional" Gallup poll. According to the website:

"The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.".

They're using THAT standard? C'mon, does anyone really think that the Rep vs. Dem turnout THIS year is going to be the same as in years past? The Obama GOTV effort may not be able to match the HUGE turnouts people boast about. But it's unlikely that the turnout will be a "traditional" turnout that this poll is based on. Obama might be showing strength in having a 2-point lead in a poll rigged against him.

____________________

orange24:

Obama is not attacking him. The media is attacking him because that guy - rather the McCain camp - put him front-and-center. Obama has nothing to do with it. But, if the McCain campaign exposes this guy to scrutiny, they get what they get...

____________________

carl29:

KipTin,

You know that I am NOT pro-choice; however, Obama's answer I thought was powerful. Roe v. Wade was argued on bases of "Right to Privacy." The judges decided that the rigth to privacy also covered the right of a woman to undergo a medical precedure that she and her doctor agree to. Again, I don't morally agree with abortion but I think that if our constitution give us the right to make our on decision in the privacy of the doctor's office, why should those rights be left up popular vote? I wouldn't like that my right to free speech or my freedom of religion were left to what the majority decide.

I really think that the majority of women in America wouldn't like that the men in the country have a say in what women should do with their bodies.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Who the hell is Joe Wurzelbacher? Signed - Typical voter.

____________________

maddiekat:

Joe the plumber does not help McCain because he already has the skinhead population wrapped up, plus many of them do not register to vote.

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

So Joe the plumber is connected to Keating and he hasn't been paying his taxes. Seriously, does the McCain campaign do NO research at all?

____________________

Batony:

If any poll shows the race getting closer in PA, look for panic in Obamaland. For some reason no one, including Rendell believes Obama is up by double-digits in PA.

I made this point the other day. Now that the McCain Camp is finally paying attention to red states, I don't see no reason his numbers will not be improve. Those same people that had him ahead in previous polls are still there. It should be fun to watch the polls.


____________________

Inkan1969:

@wakeup

The Joe the Plumber schtick bombed during the debate. All the network focus groups thought it was stupid. As the media looks at who Wurzelbacher really is: a republican, a Keating relative, owner of >3 the voting public will realize the scam that McCain was trying to pull by making Joe Wurzelbacher into Joe Sixpack. That BS won't sell.

____________________

ticketstub:

@KipTin

Re: judges

The appointing judges debate IS about abortion...don't let anyone fool you into thinking it isn't. Both candidates have to play to their base on that one, and no matter what they say, that is the primary thing they're talking about when they're talking about courts.

Although, if it comes down to it, they wont reverse Roe v Wade specifically, as it's too much of a hot topic. They'll go after Griswold v Connecticut and the right to privacy it established.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@orange24:
Well, he may not be attacking him to his face, but he sure is doing it behind his back. The obama tax platform is nothing more than class warfare that will get poor men like Joe punished for being successful. While he pretended to be courteous when meeting, I'm sure given the chance, Obama would have loved to have literally spat in his face. He is an awful awful person.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@carl29
I can't believe you defend the ritual killing of millions of babies while cheered on by idiot liberals and bull dykes like Rachael Maddow.

Obama said to the american public during the debate, that he has absolutely no problem with the slaughter of the unborn. He will roast in hell, mark my words for that...whether or not he wins the election. He isn't saved, and he may very well be muslim/arab. We don't really know his background.

____________________

Basil:

Very "mature", Mr. Keyes.

____________________

southern angler:

Great news George Bush and John McCain have just lowered oil prices to $70 a barrel.

____________________

NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome do US bombs GUT women and children in Iraq? Could you go to hell now you ****ing hipocrite?

____________________

southern angler:

Alen Keyes I voted for you. Good to see you here.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@Basil

I am mature...now go back to killing babies and class warfare, you silly libturd.

____________________

carl29:

Thank you for enlighting me, alankeyesisawesome. However, for some reason I don't feel comfortable with your opinions, please don't answer my postings because I wasn't talking to you. Thanks but NO thanks :-(

____________________

Stonecreek:

Joe the Plumber (according to the Toledo Blade, not Obama's capaign) made $40,000 in 2006 as revealed in public documents from his divorce case. Joe has never held a plumber's license in Ohio (or anywhere else) and can legally only work in limited jurisdictions outside of Toledo, and then only under the auspices of his employer; he has little hope of buying the business because he is not qualified to run it. Joe, like many who are riled about taxes, has failed to pay some of his and has an outstanding tax lien against him of nearly $1,200. Joe's name is misspelled on the voter registration rolls, so he may not be allowed to vote due to the Republican lawsuit in Ohio.

In short, Joe is an outstanding example of the low-information voters on which Karl Rove depended to carry the day for Republican candidates for two decades. The problem for McCain is that we've entered the information age and Joe's numbers have shunk to the point that you can no longer effectively cobble together enough votes to win with those that remain.

____________________

NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome Joe the plumber is getting a bit ahead of himself. HE IS UNLICENSED and works for a plumbing co. SOMEDAY he may want to buy the business. LOL God another made up GOP story.

____________________

DTM:

@ThisLandIsMyLand

I heard they ran Joe by the VP vetting committee, and he came up clean.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stonecreek AMEN!

____________________

southern angler:

OUCH.....another one of Obama's numbers just fell and hit me in the head.

____________________

zen:

to alankeyesisawesome,

Looks like you are an awful person....
I don't think Joe is poor person at all...
if you think 5 percent from the top is poor, maybe your dictionary is very different from my dictionary.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@carl29

I don't care if you answer my posts or not (though it is quite telling that you are unable to counter my excellent points)...I just have the need to respond to your baseless chicanery is all.

Of course, if you can't defend what you say, that's not surprising to me in the least.

____________________

DTM:

@southern angler

And all it took to get lower oil prices was setting off a global recession.

____________________

southern angler:

Joe plumber is a good American. You guys should show some respect for him.

____________________

1503er:

The state polls usually lag the national polls. We'll have to wait and see if the national polls are a reflection of stronger Red state support for McCain or if he's making a comeback in swing/yellow/toss up states.

One thing is for sure. We all know that Joe the Plumber was another hail mary pass by the McCain campaign. He's all anyone will talk about for few news cycles now.

____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler now you should replace all the trailers in your state with houses. We can just print more money to do it, you know, the Republican way. Debt spending.

____________________

orange24:

@alankeyesisawesome:

Do you consider anybody making more than 250K a year to be poor?

That would explain why you're a McCain supporter. For someone with 9 houses and 15 cars, middle class is somewhere around 5M a year. Go ahead and vote for McGrumpy - you'll get what you deserve.

____________________

southern angler:

Patrick what type of home do you own?

____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler could you tell me why Joe Plumber is a good American? Better than anyone in here? Because he's white and very average he's now a "good" American? LOL God this country is DOOMED. Rome is falling, stupidity is heralded.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@zen
Well, he is poor in the sense that he is under vicious scrutiny by Obama's negative campaigning, and I'm sure he has gotten plenty of death threats since he became famous.

He would also be literally poor because Obama is proposing to raise his taxes somewhere to the magnitude of 65% or so, making him unable to have a decent living, even though he has earned everything he's had.

____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler I live in a blue state, you know, where 75% of US GDP lives. You talk about America and your values and the GOOD PEOPLE in small towns..too bad 75% of US GDP come from liberal cities, blue states, you know, where things are designed, developed, and implemented.

____________________

NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome the "plumber" makes 40K a year and can't even pay the Republican taxes he has now. He's behind! ROFL Obama's plan would CUT his taxes further. Rome is burning!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Does anyone realize that most of these polls occurred right in the midst of the big activation of the bank buy-ups, and the subsequent 1000 pt. surge in the stock market?

But they would NOT have incorporated the next days plummet showing the recovery was ephemeral!

And lets look at precisely what happened in the debate last night.

1) McCain never seriously brought forward any of the "raft of economic proposals" that were promised to be announced during the debates.

2) He sounded as if he opposed the use of "a womans' health" as a criteria in allowing abortion. That essentially puts him in with the folks that are the most extreme pro-lifers. It took him out of the "pro-Choice" camp entirely.

3) He twice botched the syndrome that Sarah Palin's son has...it's not autism, it's Down's syndrome.

4) He brought up a guy that will get people talking about a Charles Keating connection (and potential family wealth and Republican campaign ties)...and debating about whether $250K income people should be getting a tax cut. Plus the guy seems to be out there working without a plumbers license...uninsured against botched jobs.

Certainly there are better cases of sympathetic individuals than "Joe".


____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler are you on a MAC or PC? Hmmm... I wonder where the software RUNNING your mac or PC was designed? Hmmmm... California or Washington State?

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

joe the plummer has been getting hammered on tv the last 2 hrs, he makes about 40k a yr and does'nt have a plummers license.
Joe's dream is to make 250k a yr and not pay higher taxes when he gets there if he ever does lol!

What an idiot , the avg plummer makes 47k a yr and the most likely scenerio is joe the plummer will make alot more money over his carEer by electing obama.

some people are very slow mentally and Joe the plummer will be the first one bitching a yr after mccain gets elected and his policies hurt him!

____________________

ticketstub:

Guys, alankeyesisawesome is just messing around. It's a joke, don't get worked up about it.

____________________

southern angler:

Patrick since you where making trailor jokes I'm curious if you where jealous that you do not have a trailor for yourself. Or maybe you do have a nice home and a better job than Joe and are just ill bred enough to brag about it. Which is it?

____________________

orange24:

He would also be literally poor because Obama is proposing to raise his taxes somewhere to the magnitude of 65% or so, making him unable to have a decent living, even though he has earned everything he's had.

Would you at least do a little f***ing research:

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=6047360&page=1

____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler I don't need to brag about my home. Ya see, I'm a democrat, I'm not ONLY worried about MY OWN situation. You?

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@orange24

As my goal is to eventually make at least $1,000,000 a year...maybe in the stock market, I can definitely identify with anyone making that much. Who cares if they are middle class or not...the truth is that they need to pay lower taxes. My ideal tax plan would be to tax the poor and lower middle class the same or perhaps even more, and then tax the rich much less...this way there will be an incentive to rise up the social classes and become successful. Obama's tax plan stresses laziness.

I am currently working as a dealer in a casino, but I have bigger plans for my life, mark my words.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Also - yesterday before the debate, Zogby stated their polling was completed for the day.

Which means Zogby's tracking poll is completed while most of the country is still at work (1st shift and office employees). Who does that leave at home to answer the phone???? Older people, self employed, stay-at-homes, under-employed, 2nd shifters (because 3rd shifters usually sleep during 1st shift hours)."

Also the women would tend to be non-working women, perhaps a lot of people with home-schooled kids, non-commuters, home disabled. Daytime TV watchers and talk-radio listeners. Conversely they might get some folks who are unemployed.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick

Joe the plumber said that he was on the cusp of making 250,000...didn't you see the footage of him meeting Obama?

____________________

southern angler:

Patrick what have you designed,developed, or implimented. My guess is nothing at all. At least Joe is a hardworking American and you are just some silly full Obama internet cheerleader. I bet Joe would turn you over his knee and give you a spanking.

____________________

orange24:

@alankeyesisawesome:

Yeah, we'll all be watching for you to make the big time. Maybe you and Joe could buy a plumbing business - if you can find a licensed plumber first.

____________________

southern angler:

Patrick now I know why you are not worried about you OWN situation because someone else is paying your bills.....thats quite boring.

____________________

NW Patrick:

southern angler I work for a company that you use EVERY day of your life:) Kiss it bitch.

____________________

maddiekat:

alankeyesisaawesome

For a couple of days there when you began posting I thought you were a troll or were just trying to stir up trouble. However after reading your post for a while I have come to the conclusion that you are not, but instead you are the dumbest person to ever post on this site. So with no further comment I apologize for previously judging you incorrectly.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Any RIGHTY in here. GIVE ME ONCE EXAMPLE in regards to our economy of your Republican tax scheme working?

____________________

Basil:

Joe "The Plumber" might be a perfectly nice guy, really. He's just fooling himself.

This goes back to the study (maybe 2 years back) I've been trying to locate. It's about how people see their income (present and future) relative to others' incomes. A vast number (20%?) think they might be in the top 5% someday, so they think tax policies that may increase taxes on that 5% might hurt them. Would this optimistic self-delusion not be Joe "The Plumber's" position?

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@orange24

Sounds like you're just upset and perhaps a bit jealous because I'm planning to make something of myself. It's ok, maybe when I do I can send some charity your way.

____________________

southern angler:

Actually Patrick I don't have my newspaper delivered anymore.

____________________

Viperlord:

Lol. It's odd if the poor ickle rich are being unfairly treated, the richest man in America, Warren Buffet, endorses Obama for President, and points out that his employees in 2006 paid 33# of their income in taxes, while he paid 19% of his. Only in a Republican America folks.

____________________

bill kapra:

@alankeyes

What would be better for you? lower taxes while you're saving up for your big move to the upper-income tier or lower taxes once you've struck it rich?

Americans love to fantasize about getting rich but the fact is that economic mobility has decreased substantially in recent decades. Since Reagan it has gotten harder to move up the ladder. Trickle-down has now been experimentally shown to impede, not enhance upward mobility.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@maddiekat

It definitely speaks volumes about your intelligence if you feel the need to try to paint me as stupid.

All my friends always say to me "Oh, Chris, you're the smartest person I know."

So suck it.

____________________

Viperlord:

Don't you guys just love the unsupported and ignorant arguments he throws at us?

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@bill kapra

Well, of course lower taxes when I've struck it rich...and I will be rich too...I've got about 5,000 saved up and I'm going to invest in stocks and real estate once everything hits rock bottom.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@Viperlord

Speak for yourself.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm still waiting for ONE of them to show me an example OVERALL of the Republican tax scheme IN ACTION the past 8 years and how it's helped the US overall? Cmon' windbags.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

Owned, btw.

____________________

maddiekat:

chris

Actually you make Joe the plumber sound like George Will.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Do me a favor... Keep attacking Joe Wurzelbacher and see where it gets you."

Keating-5?

A divorce involving a wife who fled to a women's shelter

http://apps.co.lucas.oh.us/onlinedockets/DocketDR.aspx?STYPE=1&PAR=DR19970476&STARTDATE=01/01/1900&ENDDATE=01/01/2100&PARTY=D,1

Who claims he can afford to buy a company he claims will net $250K annually. And thinks that this shouldn't require him to pay a tax-increase.

Who opposes Social Security (of course not, think of all that co-pay he'd have to pay his employees in that $250K net biz). Better to make them get their own damn "private accounts" in the stock market. And he might even have to offer his plumbers an insurance plan.

____________________

southern angler:

Acorn just called Obama a liar.....this is getting good.

____________________

justdoit:

Here are the people McCain is so proud of.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRqcfqiXCX0&eurl

____________________

cinnamonape:

Does anyone realize that most of these polls occurred right in the midst of the big activation of the bank buy-ups, and the subsequent 1000 pt. surge in the stock market?

But they would NOT have incorporated the next days plummet showing the recovery was ephemeral!

And lets look at precisely what happened in the debate last night.

1) McCain never seriously brought forward any of the "raft of economic proposals" that were promised to be announced during the debates.

2) He sounded as if he opposed the use of "a womans' health" as a criteria in allowing abortion. That essentially puts him in with the folks that are the most extreme pro-lifers. It took him out of the "pro-Choice" camp entirely.

3) He twice botched the syndrome that Sarah Palin's son has...it's not autism, it's Down's syndrome.

4) He brought up a guy that will get people talking about a Charles Keating connection (and potential family wealth and Republican campaign ties)...and debating about whether $250K income people should be getting a tax cut. Plus the guy seems to be out there working without a plumbers license...uninsured against botched jobs.

Certainly there are better cases of sympathetic individuals than "Joe".


____________________

NW Patrick:

Does anyone realize MCCAIN WILL NOT AND CANNOT WIN this election> It's over and we're all pretty much spinning. I'd bet anyone $1000 right now on this.

____________________

ticketstub:

@Patrick

Well, I agree that I think McCain will not win. But he definitely CAN if a bunch of things go his way. And I mean a BUNCH of things.

____________________

jonny87:

NW Patrick,
i hope your right...but i imagine in a weeks time we wont be feeling so sure.

____________________

muckinello:

Early voting is going GREAT.. this is good news for the blues!

____________________

KipTin:

FYI: The stockmarket downtrend yesterday was based on CONSUMER SPENDING report. Not unemployment, not restricted credit for businesses, not global markets... but people finally being sensible and focusing on the basics instead of material culture... aka stuff they do not need.

____________________

1503er:

Patrick I hope you're right but over confidence isn't going to do anyone any good. I think we'll see the state polls catch up to the national polls by next week.

Just my 2 cents.

____________________

KipTin:

FYI: Early voters are those already committed to their candidates. The final decision will be made on election day by others.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Of these, according to a calculation by the independent, non-partisan Tax Policy Center, fewer than 700,000 taxpayers would have to pay higher taxes under Mr. Obama’s plan. But even some of these are not small-business owners in the traditional sense; they include lawyers, accountants and investors in real estate, all of them with incomes that put them in the top tax brackets.

So are there “millions more like Joe the Plumber,” as Mr. McCain contended? Probably not. Mr. Obama may well have been correct when he stated that “98 percent of small businesses make less than $250,000.”

____________________

ticketstub:

But early voting does help people vote who might not have been able to on election day. I think we'll eventually move towards a system where election day is more of a deadline than a be-all-end-all for voting.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

1503er NW Patrick is right. Everyone is acting so nervous over a pollster using a new model amongst 3. Every single indicator shows a CLEAR Obama lead. Historical factors too like right/wrong track. It's over. I doubt CNN will be reporting my claim here on this small blog tonight. LOL

____________________

bill kapra:

@alankeyes

With all due respect. You seem to lack a grasp on the fundamentals of business (and mathematics). A five thousand dollar investment would have to double seven times to make you a millionaire. Even assuming an astronomical rate of annual returns (like 25%), that would take nearly thirty years.

It is great to have Americans dream big and fantasize about a better tomorrow. But dreamworld scenarios are what got us into this mess in the first place. Too many ordinary folks got overexuberant, bought too-big houses, and spent too much money they didn't have. For that matter, our government committed to a war on the fanciful expectation that it would be quick and cheap.

I'm all for enthusiasm and ambition. But, please, take a pencil to paper and try to be at least a little realistic. Just like Joe the plumber in Ohio, you're letting your political common sense be manipulated by your economic fantasies.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

To you conservative and GOP scumbags (if the shoe fits... if not throw it away):

Listen to the phone message being sent out on "The Ayers Affair" by the GOP. You can always tell what the GOP scum is doing; just listen to what they accuse you of doing. McCain whines about the nasty things being said about him. Yet NO ONE, including GOP operatives, have been able to document, record or otherwise provide any evidence of the sort of creepy, disgusting, and false crap that they do. Of course, any criticism of the GOP is used by their advocates as some excuse to fire off any sort of crap. In fact, the iron law of GOP political rhetoric is: "Say whatever you have to say to win; if it's true, so much the better; if it's not true, say it anyway and say it louder and more often just to show how sincere you are as you lie, lie, and lie some more." What a digusting campaign. What a reprehensible party they are. They've rediscovered their McCarthy roots.

____________________

Ryguy:

wow are you guys really letting the trolls on this site get to you? look guys, there has been no dramatic change in the past week. a day or 2 of close polling doesnt mean that there is a problem, especially since obama is still polling close to 50%. the polls will tighten towards the election, but just keep in mind, all obama needs is iowa, new mexico, and colorado... hes got 2 of the 3 for sure and colorado is just about in the bag...

____________________

muckinello:

@KipTin:
Early voting in urban areas is up 50% from four years ago and more. I think that's the proof that the Obama electorate is very motivated.

____________________

1503er:

If 98% of small businesses make less than $250,000 per year ($200,000 if they file single) and 95% of Americans will get a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to pay for everything else? So an increase on 2% of the small businesses and 5% of the individuals in this country is going to generate enough revenue to pay for everything?

I'm asking an honest question.

____________________

1503er:

Ryguy, again, wait to see if the those state polls catch up to these national polls to see if there is a trend. If the national polls continue to tighten then I'd expect that CO, NM, and IA may as well too. And then after that you might need to start worrying about PA or MI.

As for everyone else, isn't it obvious that alankeyesisawesome is a troll a la Stephen Colbert? I wouldn't give too much credence to his posts.

____________________

ticketstub:

@1503er

There will have to be cuts. But that 5% of the individuals hold a HUGE amount of the countries wealth. And as the economy worsens, the amount of tax revenue (in income tax) you can get from the lower and middle classes just isn't that much. It's like squeezing blood from a rock.

Also, keep in mind, Obama wants to get more money from massive companies as welll, like the oil companies, who basically pay no taxes thanks to loopholes and tax breaks.

____________________

jonny87:

@PortlandRocks,

does it not concern you that obama went from 8+ to 4+ in a little more than a week with rasmussen.

____________________

1503er:

jonny87, I know you weren't asking me, but yes it concerns me a lot. I don't think you can chalk it up to noise like so many people want to.

____________________

KipTin:

How about paying attention to the FACTS... cinnamonape.

1. McCain announced his economic proposals the day BEFORE the debate.

2. McCain is "pro-life" which is NO SECRET. As many pro-life are voting for Obama, many pro-choice are voting for McCain based on OTHER ISSUES with higher priorities.

3. McCain was NOT talking about Palin's son. He began talking about people at his rallies who have autistic kids. McCain long ago announced that Palin would be focused on ALL "special need" kids... and that was to what he was referring. Autism (unlike Down's Syndrome) occurs among a significant number of American kids and the cause is not yet known. Therefore, McCain's discussion on such.

4. Your attack on "Joe the Plumber" is ridiculous and defamatory. Joe works for a LICENSED Plumbing and Heating company.

Joe was talking about owning a business some day that made $250K and believed that Obama's tax policies were not favorable to his goal/dream. It was Obama who approached him, and it was Obama who made a comment that included "spread the wealth around."

You should be beating up on Obama for saying such a dumb thing instead of "Joe" or McCain who took advantage of Obama's words. Only fair after Obama keeps repeating McCain's words OUT OF CONTEXT that the "fundamentals of the economy are strong."

____________________

ticketstub:

@Kiptin

What is the context of McCain's "Fundamentals of the economy are strong" line that makes it not a gaffe?

I'm honestly asking, I might just not know.

____________________

KipTin:

Here is a true honest answer for you...1503er.

The increased taxes that Obama is proposing for individuals and businesses will not cover Obama's proposals for cutting taxes combined with his new programs and increased expenditures let alone balance the Federal budget.

This is confirmed by every analysis by non-partisans.

____________________

jonny87:

i hope obamas team no what there doing, from last nights performance it appears they think providing he doesnt make a big blunder he'll be fine. but i think for sure he should displayed more energy and passion, not in attacking mccain, but defending his positions and empathizing with the middle class etc.

his race is always going to be a factor and i think it significantly softens his support.

____________________

ticketstub:

NEITHER of the candidates are going to come anywhere close to balancing the budget, let alone paying for their proposal. Personally, I don't believe McCain when he talks about the "spending freeze" because it would be wildly unpopular.

If you want a balanced budget, invest in a time machine and go hang out during the Clinton days.

____________________

KipTin:

"The fundamentals of our economy are strong, but these are very, very difficult times. I promise you we will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street!"

John McCain Sept. 15, 2008

____________________

1503er:

Thanks.

Also I agree with you jonny87 on a lot of those points. Is it possible Obama peaked too early?

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@KipTin

Early voting means you can get more people to the polls. For example, in North Carolina people who haven’t voted in decades are being shuttled to the polls as I write this. Some of these people dropped out of the system after MLK was assassinated. Many of them are infirm and require assistance to get to the polls. Many of them (of all races) would crawl to the polls to vote for Obama if they had to.

Early voting continues until Nov. 1st. Many thousands of people like this will be given rides to the polls during this time. Yes, they’ve already made up their minds, but they aren’t able to wait in line at the polls and insist on voting in person.

Obama’s ground game here in NC is spectacular. No one is taking anything for granted and you will see a record turnout beyond anything anyone has ever seen.

____________________

jonny87:

@1503er

i dont think obama seized the iniative from the financial crisis, always very cautious. so it wasnt so much he peaked, but more he held steady whilst mccain was flailing around. consequently he wasnt much of a leader on the issue and didnt take advantage of mccains misteps by making them terminal. now mccain has regained his footing i fear obamas support may wilt a little.

____________________

1503er:

jonny87

"i dont think obama seized the iniative from the financial crisis, always very cautious. so it wasnt so much he peaked, but more he held steady whilst mccain was flailing around. consequently he wasnt much of a leader on the issue and didnt take advantage of mccains misteps by making them terminal. now mccain has regained his footing i fear obamas support may wilt a little."

Agreed.

____________________

ticketstub:

@Kiptin

And how does that context show him as in touch? The fundamentals are NOT strong...Obama's criticism of that is that he was wrong. And in the quote you gave, yeah, he still is wrong.

"Hard times" does not mean a plummeting stock market the likes of which we haven't seen before, a complete credit freeze and a situation in which the nationalization of the banks was necessary. That's beyond "hard times."

____________________

thoughtful:

The most interesting thing in this poll is Obama's 20 point lead amongst "indies".

____________________



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