10/25-27/08; 1,000 Adults, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 42
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:19 AM
not very up to date...but in the same time frame the narrative about the final McCain surge started so...
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:20 AM
Where's your surge McGramps? The only way you could possibly win the election now is through cheating. Of course I would'nt put it past the GOP.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:21 AM
ouch is an internet poll.. good at nothing then
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:22 AM
This seems about right...maybe 2 points too high max.:)
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:24 AM
Here is the state of the Battle Ground Race. Again, look at averages, don't sweat one poll. We are in GREAT shape. Let me put it this way. If McCain wins it would be the largest polling collapse in US History and turn the pundit and polling world upsidedown. I doubt that will happen.
Florida 48.6 45.1 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 49.0 46.8 Obama +2.2
Virginia 51.0 43.4 Obama +7.6
Ohio 49.4 43.8 Obama +5.6
Missouri 48.0 47.8 Obama +0.2
Colorado 51.5 44.3 Obama +7.2
Nevada 50.4 43.0 Obama +7.4
New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3
Pennsylvania (21) 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5
Iowa (7) 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.6 40.2 Obama +12.4
NORTH DAKOTA 43.0 44.6 Obama +1.6 (OCT)
Indiana (11) 45.8 47.3 McCain +1.5
Montana (3) 44.4 47.8 McCain +3.4
Georgia (15) 45.8 50.0 McCain +4.2
Arizona (10) 44.2 49.4 McCain +5.2
RCP Electoral Count 311 142 Obama +169
No Toss Up States 364 174 Obama +190
How could ANYONE not, at least, be happy with the way this campaign has gone with 3 business days to go? Relax folks:)
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:25 AM
Polimetrix actually uses a decent methodology for an internet poll. And so far this poll has been broadly consistent with the other national polls.
CNN electoral map now has Obama at 291. They just flipped Nevada into leaning Obama. If there map is correct Obama could lose Pennsylvania and still win.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:26 AM
I still think the amount of "undecideds" is absurdly high.
November 03, 2008 Issue
Copyright © 2008 The American Conservative
I’m voting for Barack Obama this November for a very simple reason. It is hard to imagine a more disastrous presidency than that of George W. Bush. It was bad enough that he launched an unnecessary war and undermined the standing of the United States throughout the world in his first term. But in the waning days of his administration, he is presiding over a collapse of the American financial system and broader economy that will have consequences for years to come. As a general rule, democracies don’t work well if voters do not hold political parties accountable for failure. While John McCain is trying desperately to pretend that he never had anything to do with the Republican Party, I think it would a travesty to reward the Republicans for failure on such a grand scale.
McCain’s appeal was always that he could think for himself, but as the campaign has progressed, he has seemed simply erratic and hotheaded. His choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate was highly irresponsible; we have suffered under the current president who entered office without much knowledge of the world and was easily captured by the wrong advisers. McCain’s lurching from Reaganite free- marketer to populist tribune makes one wonder whether he has any underlying principles at all.
America has been living in a dream world for the past few years, losing its basic values of thrift and prudence and living far beyond its means, even as it has lectured the rest of the world to follow its model. At a time when the U.S. government has just nationalized a good part of the banking sector, we need to rethink a lot of the Reaganite verities of the past generation regarding taxes and regulation. Important as they were back in the 1980s and ’90s, they just won’t cut it for the period we are now entering. Obama is much better positioned to reinvent the American model and will certainly present a very different and more positive face of America to the rest of the world.
Francis Fukuyama is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:29 AM
Guys, you HAVE TO see this... McCain this morning:
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:31 AM
Francis did what to my mama??
Does anyone know the reason why Obama is bouncing states today and McCain isn't?
Is it because of the limited map McCain has to deal with, his limited resources (could he not be able to fly around as easily/organize rallies in disparate states), or some other reason?
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:33 AM
Fukuyama specifically citing the "need to rethink a lot of the Reaganite verities of the past generation regarding taxes and regulation" is actually kinda a big deal. Personally, I think it represents a recognition that the GOP needs to reinvent itself if it wants to become a modern and viable conservative party.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:35 AM
what;s with all these useless polls!!! (now Internet??) Where the hell are the national polls that aren't trackers? We should be choking on them by now!
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:36 AM
McCain has only one path to victory (most bush states + flipping PA)...Even this is unlikely.
He is trying to get Ohio back to red...
Wow, I think McCain is taking his man crush on Joe T. Plumber just a little too far. Now he's even imagining good ol country music singing Joe T. is at his rallies even when he isn't. Maybe the SNL sketch a few weeks back had it right, that Joe is actually just McCain's imaginary friend.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:37 AM
That was a brutal indictment. Cheered when I saw that yesterday.
Hilarious. Thanks for the link.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:38 AM
I wonder if CNN has a new poll out of Nevada coming out soon (perhaps today?)
John King just came back from Las Vegas and was talking about how Republicans were telling him the state is likely lost for them.
new CNN Nevada poll just out this morning... Obama 52/45
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:41 AM
Maybe Joe the Plumber took a 2nd job so he could pay his back taxes?
Everyone has made so much about McCain making a play for PA. I will tell you exactly why they did this. What would it look like if McCain didn't pretend to be making a push for a blue state but instead spent the past 2 weeks defending 8 - 12 red states on defense? Answer? NOT GOOD. This is an attempt to keep the base fired up. There is growing evidence around the country that they are NOT fired up.
Here in OR which is VERY RED in 90% of the counties, early voting is down in those RED counties by 26%. Lucky for Obama. More than 1/2 of Oregons population lives in the Portland area:)
This is concerning for McCain: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15070.html
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:42 AM
There are people here who keep saying : "even if Obama loses PA etc, etc, etc." but why for GOD SAKE Obama would lose PA ???? Even Kerry won it so... That's really a foolish story people use to (simply) scare themself.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:47 AM
MisterMagoo agreed.:) Obama just has so many paths to 270...It's amazing. PA is VERY safe.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:48 AM
@Everyone and Boomshak and his ILK:
Fukuyama is a movement conservative. He represents the now significant number of conservative thinkers and activists and former GOP office holders and officials and staff members who've publicly voiced their support for Obama. If you include those who are clearly very unhappy with Erratic McCain/and what's her name from Alaska, but who've not endorsed Obama publicly, then the list of conservative defections would be greater.
If the real story of how miserably the GOP has failed were told accurately by the MSM, which is so often seen as a tool of the left, and if the breathtaking irresponsibility of the choice to anoint Palin as VP candidate were properly characterized, and if the putrid quality of the McCain campaign were reported on accurately, and if McCain's dizzying, pinball-like bouncing from position to position were depicted as the wild ride it has been his campaign would have been over the day after his third campaign "suspension."
The Fukuyama endorsement won't mean much to most folks, but anyone who dwells in conservative circles and considers himself a conservative thinker, rather than just some howling hater and name-caller on the right, will see this endorsement as another affirmation of how low and vacuous and mean the GOP presidential campaign has become.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:53 AM
Yes, Fukuyama's endorsement of Obama is encouraging- we liberals have more of a stake in the civil war being waged by conservatives than we might like to think. It's important to have an intellectually rigorous and honest opposition. I'm hopeful that the anti-intellectuals come around.
After the election the warfare between the two sides is likely to escalate. More politicians will be forced to choose between Palin's camp (she, and not McCain, is Bush's true heir, despite Obama's rhetoric) and the responsible conservatives.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:54 AM
I think people just like seeing that Obama has so many ways to win this (ZOMG he lost Penn! Wait, he just won Indiana and Georgia!), while McCain has to have a perfect storm. Obama's solid lead in PA just show that the perfect storm isn't shaping up.
These guys endorsed Kerry in 2004 and just endorsed Obama, so read this poll accordingly.
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:56 AM
CNN TIME POLLS
Ohio: O 51 - M 47
Nevada:O 52- M 45
North Carolina: O 52 - M 46
PA : O 55 - M 43
AZ : O 46 - M 53
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:57 AM
REALITY CHECK: ACCORDING TO EARLY VOTING IN 2004, KERRY WAS BLOWING BUSH AWAY IN FLORIDA!
October 29, 2004:
Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots [to Quinnipiac], Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush's 39 percent.
Kerry led the early voting in Florida by a wide margin... and ended up losing by 5 percent. Depending on which poll you look at, Obama either leads early voting by a wide margin... or he trails by a bit.
Let's ask President Kerry how that all turned out...
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:58 AM
Sorry guys, but I'm afraid that compared to the previous poll by The Economist, this one is "M+1"...
Posted on October 30, 2008 11:59 AM
boomshak go compare ALL state polls in 2004 and national polls in 2004 to now. Keep dreaming wierdo.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA poll
"From NBC's Mark Murray
A new NBC News/Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll shows McCain with an 11-point lead over Obama among likely South Carolina voters, 53%-42%.
Yet that margin is smaller is among registered voters, 50%-44%.
Also don't miss this nugget from Princeton Survey pollster Evans Witt: cellphone respondents tend to back Obama by a greater percentage. "Unlike many state polls during the 2008 campaign, this survey included interviews on both landline phones and on cellphones in South Carolina. Among the landline interviews, McCain holds a 50% to 42% margin. But among cellphone interviews, the candidates are tied: McCain 48% and Obama 49%. Those interviewed on cell phone are more likely to be young and young voters heavily favor Obama."
The poll was conducted from October 25-28, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4% for registered voters and plus-minus 5% for likely voters."
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:01 PM
Yep Boom. Kerry and Obama are the same. This is 2004. People are equally as excited for Kerry as they were for Obama. YEP!:)
Any one want a George Bush Urinal?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:02 PM
I also think people are a bit nervous.
After 8 years of disaster, they still can't unconsciently and completly believe Obama is going to win on next Tuesday as he's going to turn the page of this real mess.
True that it ain't over till it's over but History is around the corner :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:03 PM
HEY BOOM****! WHAT HAPPENED WITH RAS TODAY? ROFL!
Boom, are you going to explain your profanity and accusations of anti-Semitism to Mark in the GWU thread?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:04 PM
The difference between 2004 and 2008 is 4 years(you are so not a math major) and that we don't need Florida or Ohio to win, so your point on early voting is pretty meaningless. It is all about Virgina, Virgina, Virgina.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:05 PM
Joe the Plumber just became Joe the No Show. Perhaps he was off brushing up his foreign policy experience
Yes, but it was M+1 in a week to 0+7, with one week to go before the election.
Francis Fukuyama endorsing Obama is actually a reason to vote AGAINST Obama. He was the idiot that proclaimed the "end of history" after America "won" the Cold War, an essential intellectual basis to the neoconservative movement.
Regardless, Obama has so much more going for him, Fukuyama's endorsement doesn't change my vote...
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:06 PM
@Boomshak The Great Dissembler
Errrr...... Fukuyama did not endorse Kerry in 2004. Chris Buckley did not endorse Kerry in 2004. Many of these people, including Colin Powell did not endorse Kerry in 2004. Quit your dishonesty. Quit insulting the intelligence of the honest conservatives and many other intelligent and well-informed people who visit this site.
The more I "watch" you perform here, the more shallow you seem. Initially you seemd reasonable and even informed. I now see you know little and you're mostly propelled by your prejudices and spiteful instincts. You're obviously wounded by how rapidly and deeply the GOP ticket is sinking. You are increasingly occupied with spewing your hate, and I'm delighted in how you are exposing yourself as nothing more than some large blob of protoplasm that is not-well-disguised as a thinking being. You are turning out to be very predictable, once one realizes you are nothing more than a GOP wanna-be-operative. I think you're well-qualified for that, and so you should gin up your resume and GTFOH.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:08 PM
Yeah I think that the Fukuyama endorsement is just another symptom of a failed ideology. Throw him on the pile with Greenspan.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:09 PM
Check out Obama's DEVASTATING new ad against McBush. It might just be the best ad of the whole political season.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:10 PM
I believe Obama is anti-semetic, what's to explain? let the LATimes release the Khalidi Video tape and prove me wrong.
I believe Obama made Jew hating comments at that party.
Show me the video and prove me wrong.
Why isn't the Obama Camp calling for the video to be released if there is nothing to hide?
We should and try and lay off the profanity if possible. I guess students are using the site and teachers are no longer allowing them to see it because of the profanity. I think out of respect for Mark, and the service he is providing, we should do this.
I am not trying to censure you at all, but just want to give you a heads up to Mark's request.
I learned my lesson yesterday.
Joe was busy starting his make believe plumbing business, writing his make believe book, and recording his make believe country music album.
Is there anything NOT make believe about JT Plumber? Even his first name is make believe.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:11 PM
As I said in another thread, we've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory too many times in the past to get comfortable now. This is definitely our best year of the last eight years of elections, but anything can happen. Keep campaigning for change!
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:13 PM
The early voting in NC as of 10:00pm Oct 29:
1,847,564 early voters (29.68% of registered voters)
Inds 323,681 (17.52%)
Dems 984,085 (53.26%)
Repubs 538,825 (29.16%)
Please note that Dems are overrepresenting their 45.69% (and rising) share of registration.
Note that Repubs are underrepresenting their 32.00% (and falling) share of registration.
This implies that there is an enthusiasm gap.
When there is an enthusiasm gap it is more likely than enthusiastic voters are supporting their candidate.
Here's how McCain might be winning in NC:
Obama is getting 80% of Dems, McCain 20%
Obama is getting 05% of Repubs, McCain 95%
Obama is getting 30% of Inds, McCain 70%
Obama 787,268 + 26,941 + 97,104 = 911,313
McCain 196,817 + 511,883 + 226,577 = 935,277
There. McCain's winning
Here is Rasmussen's national polling:
Dems 86% O, 12% M
Repubs 12% O, 86% M
Inds O +6%
Break out your calculator ....
I share the anger at people like Greenspan. Fukuyama is different. He's owning up to failed elements of conservative ideology. He's acknowledging that a new world and new forces require re-thinking how government and society interact. He was never in the position of power that Greenspan had, though, and so while Greenspan was an arrogant piss-ant, and his grudging concession that he was wrong on some single point or two, is nothing like the huge white flag and mea culpa that Fukuyama just offered. But... I get your drift.
If Khalidi is so awful, then why did McCain and his friends fund Khalidi's work to the tune of well over $500,000?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:14 PM
Boom: I guess McCain hates Jews since he gave this same professor hundreds of thousands of dollars, unlike Obama. So obviously, McCain hates Jews by your pathetic attempt at logic.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:15 PM
Rats, beaten to it.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:16 PM
You mean the way John McCain is Anti-Asian and according to the Seattle newspaper reporter, He still refers to the by the G-word. If challenged I will post the article.
McCain should have hired Boomshak lol.
Spreading the lies like a true republican.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:17 PM
Seriously, on the GWU thread this morning Mark Blumenthal is asking for you to explain some of your comments from yesterday.
You might want to respond, while you have the opportunity.
Well, how big was the early voting turnout in 2004, and how does it compare to the 2008 turnout?...
Great news for an SC resident like me to hear. I still think a strong Obama turnout can hold the state's McCain win to less than 10%.
I predict these states will be light red, with the McCain wins held to less than 10%:
ND, MT, GA, 2 NE districts (They may even be light BLUE, but I still doubt it)
AZ, WV, TX, MS, SD
SC, TN, KY, AR, KS (Maybe with a very strong Obama turnout)
What evidence do you have of jew hating comments at the Khalidi party? So you are saying the LA Times is not just suppressing the video but that their story about the party several months early white-washed what happened there? First, the LA Times is committed to the person who gave it to them not to release it. Second, I would never release such a tape at this time, since the only thing the GOP would do is use it and distort it's content into a piece of inaccurate slime. A political party that would produce the kind of **** that Liz Dole's folks are using in North Carolina would utterly distort the content of that tape. Good for the LA Times.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:18 PM
It’s this simple… polling heavily weighs young voter turnout. The evidence so far is that younger voters aren’t going to the polls at the levels we need them. If young voters don’t go to the polls, we lose!!! So… get the little ba$#ards out of bed, no matter what kind of hangover they have, and get them to the polls!!!! WE CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE THIS ELECTION!!!! Just put the image of Sarah Palin as President of the United States in your head. If you think George Bush was bad… She believes that dinosaurs walked around the earth with cavemen for God’s sake! Any kind of science that contradicts the age of the earth as being more than 6,000 years old will be out the door. So, say good-bye to scientific inquiry, get out your burkas and say hello to the middle ages, where we’re going to have to reprove that the world isn’t flat, and that the earth isn’t the center of the universe. And that’s no joke!!!
Palin hates Jews, she wants us all dead in an End of Days Scenario.
Hmmm.. I usually put some faith in The Economist polls so this might be more accurate than most. Around 6 or 7% seems about right to me.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:19 PM
Despite their mythical "tough stance" on Iran, the GOP seems perfectly willing to make us more like them.....
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:21 PM
Yeah that is what is really terrifying about certain elements of Christian Dominionist orthodoxy. They believe that they need to be in power so they can stear the end of days. If the thought of some true believer with their finger on the armageddon button doesn't scare you, nothing will.
I'll take my machiavellian politicians over a true believer anyday.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:22 PM
Guys.. it's getting silly. Looking at the pollster map.. let's go ahead and give McCain every state leaning or solid his way.. AND every toss-up state.. AND OH... AND PA... and where does that leave Obama?
Bad day for Drudge. So far he has no polls to post all over his site for Lou Dobbs and Fox News to get excited about.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:23 PM
Where did boomslink go? The site owner calls for him to explain his comments and now he can't be found?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:24 PM
Khalidi doesn't hate Jews. He's a Palestinian and he's a professor. He's a very articulate advocate for the Palestinians. I disagree with about 75% of what he says, but he's not anti-Semitic. He's anathema to much of the established, organized, leadership of the Jewish community in the U.S., which is much more hawkish about Arab/Israeli/Palestinian issues than people in Israel. Khalidi is NOT a terrorist and there are many Jews who consider him a civilized, decent person, even while they are also in strong disagreement with him. This issue is bogus.
You may want to man up and apologize. It's really not hard to tell Mark you are sorry.
You are digging yourself into a whole man - throwing around anti-semitism and racism is not what we need.
What are you going to do on Wed when Obama is president?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:25 PM
Ssh, you'll make the conservative's heads explode.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:26 PM
Obama's special last night drew 26.4 million viewers and an 8.1 rating among adults 18-49 on the three broadcast nets (CBS, FOX and NBC).
That doesn't include the broadcast network Univision, which also aired the program, or the three cable nets that aired the program.
We're looking at around 30 million viewers for the special.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:27 PM
Almost exactly like Ross Perot's numbers.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:29 PM
Not bad ratings for an infomercial.:)
Looks like Christoper Shays (R-CT) is "going rouge" too.
"I just don't see how [McCain] can win," Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays told the Yale Daily News earlier this week. "He has lost his brand as a maverick; he did not live up to his pledge to fight a clean campaign."
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:30 PM
I find it interesting that the Republican strategy now seem to be exclusively focused on dividing people. Here is just another example.
Sen Bond warns to stop "the gay"
I wonder when they are going to figure out that in a pluralistic society they are eventually going to unite all of the groups that they are trying to exclude. When that happens they will have created a permanent majority that is larger than the "base" of their party.
Sounds like John McCain and the Republican party don't understand the difference between a strategy and a tactic.
Its a small move, but for the last two days the intrade markets have moved steadily to McCain (I know it is still low). Another point today. The number that matters is Barack Obama's top number. He is trending DOWN slowly. In all the the primaries Barack got about exactly what he was polling before the election. Like Ohio he was polling at 45% and got 45%. If you have not decided to vote for Obama yet, I find it hard to believe that a voter will.
"I share the anger at people like Greenspan. Fukuyama is different. He's owning up to failed elements of conservative ideology. He's acknowledging that a new world and new forces require re-thinking how government and society interact. He was never in the position of power that Greenspan had, though, and so while Greenspan was an arrogant piss-ant, and his grudging concession that he was wrong on some single point or two, is nothing like the huge white flag and mea culpa that Fukuyama just offered. But... I get your drift."
Republicans are mad today.
Have you seen Obama's new ad?
Very cool ad :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:32 PM
Please "slap" me silly if I spend any more time responding, lecturing, attacking, mocking, or otherwise doing anything as a result of Boomshak.
I apologize; he represents everything that is wrong with so-called conservatives today. As a battered and saddened conservative myself, I can't stand his type and while it's been happening for a while, I've had to realize that the GOP has long ago been taken over by apologists for the abuse of power and by the defenders of ill-gotten wealth.
My support for Obama is pretty much in line with Fukuyama's sentiments, although I am also beginning to think a lot more about the balance that is required between "working" people and the "investment" classes. Most important, it's clear that there are serious flaws in the country and we are sinking rapidly. I'm a lot more concerned about that than I am about whether the ****ing GOP loses or the Dems win. If the Dems can get it right and get the country moving forward and upward again, more power and well-deserved kudos to them.
I need to quit indulging myself as much as I have here, and so, for what it's worth, adieu to all you great citizens. As they say in the nation's greatest and most politically active city -- vote. early. ofen.
Thanks for the CNN Nevada numbers, hou04. I didn't see your post above until just now.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:33 PM
Ok.. guys.. I'm going to make all the trolls' wet dreams come true and see where that would leave us....
Here's a hypothetical beyond-best case in a million years scenario for McCain..
John McCain has pulled off an incredible comeback in this race. Despite a tough battle he has HELD ON TO FL..
MT and ND looked a little shaky.. but they held red!
AZ looked like it might turn.. but he kept his home state red.
MO and IN after making McCain sweat.. stay red!!
GA was looking scary there.. AA turnout was unreal.. but it held for McCain..
Ok.. now the *HUGE ONES!!!*
NC, after showing McCain down for weeks.. has held red! NC to McCain!!
OH, after over a week of sizable leads for Obama, stays red for McCain!!
And the big one... get ready for it.. **MCCAIN FLIPS PA TO RED IN ELECTION NIGHT SHOCKER!!!**
Unbelievable.. the old man came through with an unreal comeback.. now let's look at the EV total..
Boomshak, I think you're feeding into the right wing paranoia a bit too much this time. That man stands for nothing but Palestinian rights; if you knew anything about the state of affairs in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict you could maybe have a more articulate point of view than the usual conservative perspective of Palestinians and Arabs in general.
I've lived in Lebanon for 9 years and I know what Palestinians go through on a daily basis. We need more people to stand up for a population that has been persecuted just because of an extremist minority who feel the need to speak for the moderate majority. Don't let the paranoia get to you, it's ignorant and hateful. Khalidi stands for Palestinian Liberation, why does that make him a terrorist?
"I believe Obama is anti-semetic[sic]" - Boomshak
Whoops, wrong answer.
"I believe Obama made Jew hating comments at that party."
You don't play the anti-semitism card in this wanton and irresponsible fashion, unless your aim is to really upset a lot of people.
If you have a scintilla of evidence that Obama is anti-semitic I suggest you produce it immediately. If not, I would retract speedily and fulsomely. Now.
NATIONAL JOURNAL/FD state polls out: VERY small samples though.. ~400 RV
Obama ahead by at least 4 in all of the following:
OH, FL, NC, VA, CO
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:35 PM
I was going to give you a pep talk earlier but I figured you'd get there eventually.
Life is good. Savor the delicious aroma of impending victory because after the election there is going to be some serious work to do.
FYI, Ben Smith of Politico just leaked the CBS/NY TImes Poll to drop later today.
It shows Obama +11 with LV, down 2 from last week.
I don't know if this year that will be the case, but in 2004 CBS/NYTimes was "darn right," with Bush 3% over Kerry.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:37 PM
Just holding out for Gallup at this point. If good RCP average could be going up up up. Gallup historically tightens on Wednesday unlike some others that do on weekends.
Yawn.:) Just vote America!:) It's over.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:40 PM
Goodbye Boris. We'll miss you
By the way, the "closing" ads were great.
No matter what happens, we all have to admit that the Dems ran an excellent campaign. Compare it to the "reality show"
McCain ran on the other side. A complete mess of a display.
"If you have a scintilla of evidence that Obama is anti-semitic I suggest you produce it immediately. If not, I would retract speedily and fulsomely. Now."
You don't understand! The Republican way of doing things is to make any statement, no matter how outrageous or despicable, and then insist that it must be true because no one has "proved it wrong", in boom's words.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:44 PM
It is very courious that Republicans always complain about the NYTimes; however, if you go back and look at their polls, the NYTimes/CBS polls have shown a rather Republican-friendly record:
In 2004 Bush against Kerry, Bush +3
In 2000 Bush against Gore, Bush +5
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:45 PM
COLORADO: Obama 51/45
VIRGINIA: Obama 51/47
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:46 PM
Campaign Financing Appears to Be Non-Issue for Voters October 30, 2008
Most Americans are unaware of whether John McCain and Barack Obama have agreed to take public financing for their campaigns and, when informed of their decisions, more than 7 in 10 say this does not affect their opinion of the candidates.
Well I think that at this point if a pollster working for a big network puts out a poll showing a double digit advantage for either one or the other candidate, it must be confident in his numbers. At least confident, meaning that he believes that the numbers portray the state of the race. I don't see CBS/NYT losing their face to mask the largely recognized 'McCain surge'
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:48 PM
Good thing McCain keeps whining about it. He needs to get the word out.
You can see that Obama's commercial last night was a success when the McCain campaign comes out diminishing and attacking it.
Doesn't smell like envy? :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:51 PM
Question: until when the daily tracking will be available? Will they poll though sunday?
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:54 PM
Battleground State Comparison (RCP vs. Pollster)
State: Poll RCP
MT: O+3.4 M+3.4
ND: O+3.6 Tie
NV: O+5.9 O+7.4
CO: O+7.0 O+6.5
NM: O+7.2 O+7.3
MN: O+11.3 O+12.1
IA: O+11.7 O+11.4
WI: O+10.0 O+10.6
MO: O+1.7 M+3.4
IN: O+0.5 M+1.5
MI: O+18.7 O+15.5
OH: O+6.1 O+5.8
PN: O+10.7 O+9.5
VA: O+8.1 O+6.5
NC: O+2.4 O+2.5
GA: M+2.6 M+4.2
FL: O+2.9 O+3.5
through not though
Tracking polls are supposed to keep it until the night before the election.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:55 PM
I know PBS also aired it. And I don't think their numbers would be included in the ratings total. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if MSNBC took a big chunk of the ratings. I watched it at 5:00pm in California and probably a lot of other people did the same.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:57 PM
Okay, so polling before the election is exactly what Obama will get?
Well, as an Obama supporter that is great news. Average of polls according to RealClear Politics:
Virginia: Obama 51.0
Colorado: Obama 50.8
Nevada: Obama 50.4
Pennsylvania: Obama 52.3 (even with Mason Dixon poll added in)
If those numbers hold (will actually probably be higher on election day due to cell phone effect and underestimation of the black vote by the polling firms), then Obama wins going away. It will be very difficult for McCain to recover from the Nevada early voting. In Iowa democrats are leading republicans at the polls by 20%; it's hard for me to imagine those dems being so excited by McCain/Palin that they just had to get out and cast their vote early for them. North Carolina and Florida are both looking good for Obama in early voting, and Georgia could very well be the election night upset based on the early numbers thus far. We shall see.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:58 PM
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research numbers for Obama are really good. Here are the comparisons:
Arizona, 10/23-28 (no trend lines)
Nevada, 10/23-28 (10/19-21 in parenthesis)
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 45 (46)
Obama +1, McCain -1 = 2 point change in favor of Obama
North Carolina, 10/23-28 (10/19-21 in parenthesis)
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 46 (47)
Obama +1, McCain -1 = 2 point change in favor of Obama
Ohio, 10/23-28 (10/19-21 in parenthesis)
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 47 (46)
Obama +1, McCain +1 = n/c
Pennsylvania, 10/23-28 (9/21-23 in parenthesis)
Obama 55 (53)
McCain 43 (44)
Obama +2, McCain -1 = 3 point change in favor of Obama
The RV models are pretty similar in all states, with the exception of Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Obama's lead expands dramatically to +10 and +15, respectively.
Posted on October 30, 2008 12:59 PM
Obama should see a solid 1 point gain across the board over the next several days from the 1/2 hrs infomercial, so we should be at a solid 6 across the board over the weekend!
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:03 PM
RV O 50 M 42 (O-1)
LV (e)O 51 M 44 (nc)
LV (t) O 50 M 45 (O+2)
Seems like everyone is converging on O+5
Can't wait to hear what Boom and Drudge think about one of their favs--Gallup LV (t)
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:04 PM
Slightly weird but good results from Gallup.
LV2 unchanged 51/44 +7
LV1 now 50/45 +5
RV shrinks 50/42 +8
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:05 PM
Is it official? Gallup on the "bad" kid list? right next to "uncle" Ras? along with Zogby? Oh Jesus, that list is getting long :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:06 PM
Doncha know, boom and drudge's new favorite poll is DailyKos/Research2000.
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:07 PM
ill take those gallup numbers, always odd though when gallup goes in different directions. 22% already voted, with a lot concentrated in the battlegrounds.
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:08 PM
Carl: I think they're pretty much all bad now. Yesterday, the wingnuts had four polls to hang their hats on that showed Obama with just a 3-point lead: Ras, Gallup (t), GWU, and IBD-TIPP. That list is now down to one, with IBD still possible as a second "tight" poll.
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:09 PM
Sure.... Gallup's traditional voter model 'lost' 610 likely voters in one day: turnout just went down from 85 to 65%. Is there anyone who is still taking this seriously?
Wait a minute, Fox comes out in Boomy's rescue:
FOX News Poll: Obama's Edge Over McCain Narrows
"The race has tightened with Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday."
See, Fox never disappoints. They come out when needed the most :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:10 PM
This is all about rallying the troops. Of course that Fox knows it :-)
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:12 PM
Actually, Obama outperformed his primary polls in many states--far more, in fact, than the opposite. See here:
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:13 PM
Drudge has removed the Gallup tracker from his site now that Obama is up by 5 in LVI and by 7 in LVII. But thank goodness the FOX poll has come out or Drudge would be poll-less.
You know, I'm starting to notice something about McCain's numbers in a lot of these national polls:
He rarely gets more than 44-46% support, and he's never in the lead. Hmmm... very interesting.
Thank you very much :-) That's exactly what I said not long ago: It seems that McCain support is around 44%, a kind of ceiling. We'll see, but it is certainly a number that shows up a lot in the polls.
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:20 PM
I think McCain can definitely win.
All the polls are incorrect. He actually can pull a victory of historic proportions next Tuesday.
McCain can lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida and he can still win. Here is how. He should start rallying in Canada (60 electoral votes) and Mexico (90 papayas). If he wins Canada and Mexico, that is 150 electoral votes, enough to make a landslide. The problem is that he would have to convince Mexicans and Canadians to get annexed to the U.S. by Tuesday.
Does he have time for that? Maybe ...
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:26 PM
fox poll...dems 41% reps 39% indies 16%
obamas winning more of his own party, more reps than mccains getting dems, and more indies.
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:34 PM
A wake up call regarding the polls:
Check out the 2000 polling data here:
While Bush's polling numbers 5-6 days out were not quite as good as Obama's, they were consistently favorable and Gore's numbers were mired in the low 40s and we know how that turned out. Here are the numbers for 11/1 and 11/2 (Bush/Gore):
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 48/42
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS 43/43
MARIST COLLEGE 49/44
VOTER.COM (BATTLEGROUND) 46/37
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 47/43
VOTER.COM (BATTLEGROUND) 46/39
Posted on October 30, 2008 1:35 PM
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