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US: Obama 49, McCain 42 (Gallup 9/30-10/02)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
09/30-10/02,08; 2,728 RV 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 42

 

Comments
pbcrunch:

Solid pro-Obama movement last night or a relatively good night for McCain falling off. Interesting that 3 of the 5 daily trackers now show a 6 or 7 point lead for Obama, with R2K and Battleground averaging out to a 7 point lead...

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Trosen:

Won't know what, if any, effect last night's debate/bailout passing might have had until tomorrow's Gallup. I'm guessing the lead will go down to 3 or 4, then back up after Tuesday.

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Unbiased08:

OH SNAP! Rasmussen and gallup, by far the two most reputable tracking polls, are in agreement.

Obama +7.

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Hope Reborn:

Thank you Sarah, for the Audience. Obama's victory was cemented last night while you were busy not eating boogers on TV

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ronnie:

Biden was incredible last night...CNN reports 87% say Biden ready to step in as President, 46% for Palin...No bump for the Rep ticket.

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kerrchdavis:

@ronnie

He really was amazing. What a genuine, nice guy. I have never been more passionate about BOTH a P/VP combination in my life.

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mysticlaker:

Biden was great. I was telling friends that a lot of people who never have seen him before will be very impressed. He knows how to connect with folks.

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KipTin:

Interesting Minnesota SurveyUSA poll today:

"Minnesota Presidential Teeter Totter Tips Toward McCain: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 10/02/08, 33 days from the vote, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even... The nominal advantage today goes to McCain, who is atop Obama 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. But: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 20 days ago, Obama is down 3 points... In Western MN, which abuts the Dakotas, there is movement to McCain. In Northeastern MN, which overhangs Michigan, there is see-sawing back to Obama."

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782fede-2757-4c86-9479-f84f02afc9fb

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nick-socal:

I especially like how Biden has a command of the issues and then can explain them easily. He knows his stuff. But I also dig that his pops called him 'Champ'. That's what my dad calls me too so that connects with me. Biden's a genuine guy.

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ericsp28:

Before we all get too excited lets remember that Obama had a similar lead after he clinched the nomination. When McCain went negative in August he managed to tighten the race up until it was a virtual tie when the DNC started.

McCain will go negative, and in a big way. My guess is it will start this weekend or early next week and we will see Obama's lead start to dwindle.

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NW Patrick:

Research 2000 Obama holds an 11 point advantage. This is ALL part of the Sunday tie, right BoomShakWindBag?

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KipTin:

Yes, Biden is knowledgeable and experienced. Too bad he is not the Presidential candidate, then I would be voting Democrat again this year.

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nick-socal:

Not sure how the bailout vote is supposed to help McCain. He looked lost on it and both he and Obama supported it AND it's unpopular in America. Am I missing something?

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NW Patrick:

Biden was PERFECT. Did exactly what he had to do. RIDICULOUS as it seems, he was respectful to her as she read from queue cards, then he came back with KNOWLEDGE with out cards and told the American people EXACTLY why McCain IS truly, in fact, a Bush 3rd term. She was irrelevant.

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KipTin:

Well, the bailout vote sure did not help the stock market. Up +300 before the vote, and then down to minus to +90 right now.

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NW Patrick:

ericsp28 you're wrong. The only lead McCain ever took was at the convention when Palin was perceived to be a BRILLIANT choice. The damage is already done with Palin, last night may move 1%, if that, nothing more.

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Trosen:

It's unpopular, but the trend the past few days has definitely tilted to having to do something to alleviate the crisis. If McCain can convince enough people he took a "leadership role" in helping push it through, that could earn him some points. But if he really hams it up (like he did the other day when it failed to pass) and brands himself the chmapion of its pasage and it wouldn;t have happened without him, he does risk a backlash from a large # of Americans left and right-leaning alike who are passionately opposed to the bill.

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nick-socal:

@KipTin: Exactly. So how does this help McCain?

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NW Patrick:

The bailout will continue to make news for weeks, as will the HORRIBLE #'s today on unemployment. Did anyone see the news last night that is hardly reported that a judge in AK slammed down the request by Republicans to stop the investigation into Trooper Gate? Nail in the coffen anyone?

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KipTin:

Palin read from cards? What do you think Biden was reading or was he contemplating a hangnail? Hey, NW Patrick... Have you ever debated? Debaters use notes of their key points to be made. And they make notes while the other person is speaking.

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boomshak:

Well, looks like a KABILLION ZILLION people tuned in to watch the debate last night.

Here'e the question. Who do people respond to? A botoxed old windbag policy wonk or the hot young and brave hockey mom with a twinkle in her eye?

TWO GOOD THINGS FOR MCCAIN:
1. Palin rocked.
2. Rescue Bill passed.

If McCain doesn't surge in the polls from this, he won't surge. Next 3 days are CRUCIAL.

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KipTin:

I did not indicate that this helps McCain.

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NW Patrick:

KipTin she didn't answer questions. It was so obvious she had to get it ALL OUT THERE from the note cards. Americans saw this. Look at the polls:) A clear Biden win on knowledge.

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ericsp28:

I didn't say McCain was in the lead when the conventions started, I said he had improved his standing from being down 6 or 7 points at the beginning of August to being nearly even at the end of the month. Obama got a short lived bounce from the convention and McCain got a bigger bounce which persisted until the current economic hardships took center stage.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak still tied by Sunday? ROFL

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boomshak:

HERE'S ANOTHER QUESTION:

Do you think all those people tuned in to see Biden? Nope, they tuned in to see Sarah. A LOT of minds might have been changed last night.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak how about that Rasmussen +7? Damn liberal bias.

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nick-socal:

@Kip: Right on I thought you did. Must have been boomshak

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:
"boomshak still tied by Sunday? ROFL"

Quite possibly. Looks like about 50 million voters tuned in to see the debate and they weren't there to see Biden.

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Schorty:

Have to chime in (late) on the Minnesota poll from SUSA: Can you really trust a poll that says northeastern MN overhangs Michigan? Buy a map. Got to mapquest. Purchase an almanac. Northeastern MN sorta overhangs Lake Superior (I lived in Duluth for a minute) and Lake Superior is over Wisconsin, but you would be hard pressed to find a spot that overhangs Michigan.
Just sayin'.

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Andy:

ericsp28:

"Before we all get too excited lets remember that Obama had a similar lead after he clinched the nomination. When McCain went negative in August he managed to tighten the race up until it was a virtual tie when the DNC started."

It was a known fact that the bounce after DNC would go way, the RNC convetion along with Palin being introduced in a big way had a big splash and that took the lead away. There's nothing happening between now and election day which would give continuos media coverage for four days to Mccain and team only which helped come back up. It could be close again but the media attention would be evenly split between now and election day and hence its tougher for Mccain to fight back unless there some game changing news or event.

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NW Patrick:

ericsp28 the bounce was due to the Palin announcement and the convention, not so much to negative ads. The celebrity ads fell flat. Do you think people who have decided to vote for Obama will suddenly tip to McCain in 7-10% droves because of desperate attack ads? Don't forget... Obama can literally DRAIN his war chest now. I can't wait to see the Sept. #'s.

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ericsp28:

I suspect a lot of Obama supporters tuned in to watch Palin meltdown. Just because she didn't do that doesn't mean they are going to change their minds.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Biden was PERFECT except for the fact he told at least 10 bald-faced lies. It is easy to sound confident when you are just making it up.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@ericsp28

I agree that going negative is the only strategy that makes sense for John McCain.

But on what?

Paris and Britney won't cut it.

The surge? As my screen name implies, I doubt McCain's advantage on foreign-policy will be worth much this year.

Sean Hannity's rants notwithstanding, the Reverend Wright story has been too thoroughly beaten death to reemerge as a game-changer.

So what's left?

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carl29:

My point about MN is that I wouldn't put that state in play based on a single poll that shows McCain ahead by 1%, coming from the only pollster that has shown McCain ahead in the entire campaign season. Seven different pollsters have polled MN and none of them, except for SurveyUsa has ever shown McCain ahead.

Out of 29 different polls from 7 different pollsters, these are the only ones that have shown McCain ahead in the state since December of last year:

SurveyUSA 09/30 - 10/01 725 LV 46 47 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 532 46 47 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 01/20 - 01/21 550 RV 42 49 McCain +7
SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 556 RV 41 50 McCain +9

As to right now, McCain's chances in MN are 10%.

This is the spending of both campaigns in TV ads:

For the month of September
Minnesota McCain $472,000 Obama $18,000*

* Money spent by the Obama campaign in Minnesota was in the Rochester market,
which also covers parts of northern Iowa.

Now, compare Wisconsin
Wisconsin McCain $487,000 Obama $432,000

I believe that the Obama campaign felt that Wisconsin needed a little more of "reinforcement," but MN? They don't look to worry about it.

If MN is indeed in play for McCain, I bet the farm that McCain will campaign vigoriously in the state within the next days, in addition to increasing ad spending. So far, Obama is investing virtually nothing in that state, so it seems that they are pretty confident. I want to see more polls out of MN and see Obama's and McCain's moves.

However, I don't see neither McCain nor Obama running to MN, and that by itself tells me a lot. I don't analyze polls in a vacuum. I look at the polls, all the them, and see how campaigns behave. The polls from MN, the vast majority of them, and the behavior of the McCain and the Obama campaign tells me that their internals are showing the state pretty safe for Obama.

Remember all our arguing about MI? Well, the McCain campaign pulled out. Guys, these people have far more information than us. When public polls come out showing X or Y, these campaigns already knew about it. This people are into serious business. Obviously McCain internals in Michigan were not showing him within "the margin of error." Most probable, the guy was trailing badly. Campaign strategists are pragmatic and cold.

I will pay attention to what the McCain campaign does in MN. If McCain starts campaigning there, something is going on. If McCain doesn't go there, forget it...things are not going well for him. We'll see :-)

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Basil:

Biden's physical appearance is a bit off-putting (teeth too white, eye jobs don't match, weird tan),but HE CAN THINK AND SPEAK at the same time. And he doesn't represent pure evil like Palin's role model Darth Cheney!

Palin is 100% hopeless. If she's the best the R's can do, it's a sad statement. She'd be a fine small-market TV anchorwoman (which must be a little like being Governor of Alaska), but she's no Babe-raham Lincoln.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak you're literally grasping for air. How many of those MILLIONS were DEMS waiting for her to fall on her face? I would say somewhere around 12% more were dems per the national registration #'s you like to ignore. LOL

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KipTin:

It is called staying on message. All four candidates avoided directly answering questions in their debate to keep to their message. What were you watching?

BTW: Biden is very knowledgeable on foreign policy and has been appearing on Sunday morning talk shows for years (along with McCain) to speak to such. Where Palin succeeded was bringing up Biden's words AGAINST Obama before Biden became VP selection. Palin also put him on defense in forcing Biden to explain his vote for Iraq War (sounded a lot like Hillary's explaination).

Bottom line: Biden did very well in showcasing his expertise, but his advocacy for Obama was noticeably not as strong.

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boomshak:

Well, it is clear to me now what CNN refuses to release the internals of their post-debate poll.

They know how many people watched last night and they are desperate to create the impression that Biden won.

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak,

darn facts getting in the way of your dreams:

CBS Poll of uncommitteds: Who won the debate? Biden 46%, Palin 21%

CNN Poll: Who won the debate? BIden 51%, Palin 39%.

Media Curves poll among Indies: Who won the debate? Biden 62%, Palin 38%.

By golly, darn right these will move poll results. But in the other direction. You betcha. Gosh, I would surely vote for someone based on their "twinkling" eyes. Darn right I will doggonit.

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NW Patrick:

I'm reading my queue cards for the next talking point here..give me a minute.

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak:

They weren't there to see Biden, but at the end, over 50% came away liking Biden in two polls. One thing I noticed in the coverage was that people were talking just as much about how much BIDEN had improved as how much Palin had improved. It was as if Joe Biden was some unknown that had become a newly discovered star. I think the revitalization of Biden's image was the actual big story of the debate.

And now the Ras and Gallup polls have a +7 Obama lead. What happened to tying by today? You owe people a lot of apologies for the Hell you tried to put us through.

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Go to this link and scroll down to the section that shows the historical Gallup Daily Tracking numbers. For most of the month of July Obama enjoyed a significant lead over McCain. Starting in late July through most of August McCain improved to within the margin of error on most days. This was BEFORE either convention. Obama's did not pull ahead again until after the DNC started.

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Mike_in_CA:

sorry, that media curves poll should read 69% Biden to 31% Palin.

Even better. Musta been the eye twinkling. And her firm grasp of talking points--I mean, the issues.

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KipTin:

Hey, Basil... Are you compelled to denigrate women and Alaskans to keep your Obamanation status?

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ericsp28:
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boomshak:

@Mike_in_CA:

The first two polls created by uber-Obama partisan MSM's are NOT releasing the party leanings of their samples.

That last poll is just silly with people calling in realtime on their cell phones? Huh?

How about this poll. FoxNews had a text-messaging poll that got over 1 million votes. 86% say Palin won. That is ALSO people calling in on the cell phones.

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Commander_King:

Boomshak are you insane? almost every poll shows Biden won this. Granted Palin did better than expected but Biden still came out on top. After the debate Palin's "Is she ready to be President" numbers didn't move. I think you are clearly desperate.

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Tyler:

@KipTin

Palin evaded far more questions than any of the other candidates. A lot more than usual even for political debates. Biden was about on par for a politician with question evasion, and I thought that both McCain and Obama were pretty good about answering the question that was asked of them most of the time.

@NW Patrick

It's "cue cards" not "queue cards". Cue/queue mixups are a pet peeve of mine. :)

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NW Patrick:

boomshak it's a web poll. Who cares about internals. It's not scientific but could give us an idea of how the electorate felt. Palin may have given hope to her base, but she did NOTHING to move the undecided.

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Trosen:

This is what happens now:

Based on some of the comments by Palin today and the pullout from MI, the McCain strategy is pretty clear. Win with the base (whatever "base" is truly left). Expect to continue to see more and more bloody red meat thrown to the rabid anti-liberal base (i.e. "Obama is unfit to lead") and some of the nastiest, most vicious attack ads you can imagine. On the EV front, expect the McCain camp to next abandon or severely draw down in places like PA, MN, WI, and NH and consolidate their efforts in IN, NV, VA, CO, and all other toss-ups that went formerly red in 2000/2004. I think they are looking at the map and saying we CAN still win this thing if we can just hold Bush's states. Forget turning any blue states. Problem is a)They already blew a hell of a lot of time, $$, and resources into places like MI and IA where they have no freakin chance. b)Holding every single Bush state will be a monumental task (and he has to hold them all). even FL and Oh look dangerously precarious now. Forget VA, CO, NC, and even MO which has been trending Obama. They know they need a wild, incredible game-changer. One solid Palin debate won't do it. 2 solid McCain debates won't do it. If one doesn't happen, look for them to try to manufacture one.

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ColoradoRider:

Like it or not, Boom has a point. An astonishing number of people watched the debate last night, and the true impact of this won't be known for 2-3 days. The snap polls we've seen are meaningless (Fox News, Drudge, CNN, CBS). So, sit back, enjoy the weekend, the check back on Monday or Tuesday.

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boomshak:

When Palin gave her speech at the Convention, Gallup swung 15 points to McCain over the next few days.

Her debate performance was far better than her Convention Speech. And you guys believe that now there will be no reaction?

You underestimate the POWER OF THE PALIN! Palin League, Unite! Lol.

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Tyler:

@boomshak

The difference between the Fox text-in poll and the cell-based snap polls is this: In the cell-based snap poll, the participants are pre-selected in the same way as any other scientific poll (they are called at random and asked to participate). In the Fox poll, the poll was open to anyone who wanted to participate (same as an open internet poll).

In the first case, the sample is statistically representative of the national opinion (except for the skew involved in excluding participants who do not own cell phones at all), and in the second case, the sample is statistically meaningless due to its overwhelming response bias - everyone participating had to be watching Fox News at the time.

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Mike_in_CA:

don't even bother trying to argue back at the liberal-MSM charge that boomshak is making. Thats a tired old trick of the GOP.

I guess the MSM should be all Bill OReillys and Sean Hannitys huh?

By gosh those guys are unbiased. Darn right, you betcha ;) (

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Non-taxpers should not be allowed to vote. That would absolutely decimate Obama's campaign. More than 30% of Obama supporters pay NO taxes and want the rest of us to support them. BYW, they make up a HUGE portion of those getting polled.

America was built on the idea that people should not have taxation WITHOUT representation. People that aren't taxed DESERVE NO REPRESENTATION, and NO VOTE.

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thoughtful:

I will predict that Boomshak will be so disappointed with John McCain over the next few days culminating in the Tuesday debate and so impressed with Obama that..............

Boom changes sidesand supports Obama publicly on Wednesday that's my prediction.

Yes and +8% in Gallup and Rasmussen trackers tomorrow!

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NW Patrick:

The ultra partison FOXNEWS.COM shows Biden winning the debate hands down. BOOMWINDBAG I CAN ASSURE YOU PEOPLE LIKE ME DO NOT FREQUENT THAT WEBSITE!

283,535 people voting, Biden by 12. MSNBC, you know the liberal network... Biden by 10 approaching 1 million voters!

How can you SPIN the foxnews channel poll? ROFL

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KipTin:

You guys are just quoting a singular poll question. Very telling are CNN's other results...

BEST JOB: The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. said 51 percent of those polled thought Biden did the best job, while 36 percent thought Palin did the best job.

LIKABLE: But respondents said the folksy Palin was more likable, scoring 54 percent to Biden's 36 percent.

TYPICAL POLITICIAN: Seventy percent said Biden was more of a typical politician.

EXPECTATIONS: Both candidates exceeded expectations -- 84 percent of the people polled said Palin did a better job than they expected, while 64 percent said Biden also exceeded expectations.

RESULTS: Both candidates did very well.

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Mike_in_CA:

Gosh, you're right boomshak. The electorate really is that stupid to suddenly switch their vote because Palin is a good note-card reader!! SHe is so totally fit to be Vice President it's not even funny!

Not to mention the text message my REPUBLICAN father sent me last night read "Sarah Palin is absolutely pathetic. Is this even a debate?"

Boom, let's be honest. She excites the nuts like you. But she doesn't really work for anyone else. It's good that you're excited, but from an honestly objective standpoint, she doesn't do much beyond that. Seriously. Her brand is damaged more now than it was in early Sept when she was able to HELP propel McCain's temporary surge.

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ericsp28:

@ ItsTheEconomyStupid

He will rehash the attacks that worked in the past and if that doesn't work, he will just make stuff up. At that point, what does he have to lose?

I imagine we'll see more "Swift Boat" type ads agaist Obama from independent groups too. Those kinds of ads don't have to be factual. They just need to be distracting so the economic news doesn't dominate the campaign.

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Inkan1969:

@NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Considering that everyone buys something, doesn't your "no vote category" cover NOBODY, since everyone's paid sales taxes?...

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NW Patrick:

NeverMetAnHonestLib, so Corporate America shouldn't be able to vote?

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Tyler:

@NeverMetAnHonestLib

Heck, why don't we go back to white male landholders only?

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boskop:

as a former supporter of biden, i have to say that i cringe for him having to carry the pail of BS that obama expects him to and dump it on the press all day long.

here's a guy who actually despised obama in the senate for never being there, never attending the committee meetings and sashaying in at the last minute to make a comment after THE BILLS WERE passed!

biden is a man of integrity probably needing to pop serious meds just to get up every morning and haul obama's bile.

If he were running at the top of the ticket, I'd be voting for him. Instead, we have an egomaniac with dubious underpinnings and desperate needs who learned about foreign policy from handlers while on the campaign trail.

he is a coward, a nutch who prefers to stay hidden in his nitch rather than stick out his long neck to stake out courageous ideological turf.

palin was superb. biden looked terribly old and sad and frankly, let's remember he's five years younger than mccain that's all!! and with a long history of dire medical issues.
(i watch his carotid artery hoping it wont pop again.)

why not for once, stop being such a bunch a yacking lemmings and grant that palin is tough, smart and capable. that does not detract from your choice it just makes you sound more intelligent and less a bunch of carnival hawkers.

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boomshak:

@ColoradoRider:

What political junkies like us forget is that most people would rather take a bath in a tub of fire ants than spend time in a forum like this.

Most Americans are very linear in their thinking and stuff like, "I like her", or "I can relate to her" carry a hell of a lot more weight than knowing the details of H.R. 2577.54 or whatever.

So it is possible that while they found Palin quite charming last night, they found Biden a bit stiff, wonkish and more than just a little creepy (with the forehead and the teeth licking and the hair plugs).

P.S., Speaking of CREEPY, what is the deal with Biden CONSTANTLY putting his hands on the shoulders of young women? He did it last night with Piper (ewww) and before when he made the 'no coal' gaffe with some college girl (double ewww). The 'old man wandering hands' thing is VERY creepy.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Biden said, "It's patriotic to pay taxes." More than 30 percent of his supporters are NOT PATRIOTIC.

You libs that think these people deserve a vote must be out of your minds. Or---more likely, YOU don't pay taxes and want the rest of us to support you.

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thoughtful:

Boom

I've now watched the debate 4 times (sad). Palin wasn't anything like as good as you think she was.

She did well against low expectations. But if you hadn't had those low expectations conditioned like half the audience - she was evasive, poor, not articulate as she spoke gibberish at times, her zingers lacked timiming, and seemed to be reading Que cards.

Never happy mornings again for John McCain.

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KipTin:

Palin's brand is damaged? You wish. Her performance last night re-energized the GOP and maybe swung a few Independents her way. That was what she needed to accomplish.

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Timdicator:

@NeverMetAnHonestLib

I was wondering when Republicans were going to openly support disenfranchisement. Kudos.

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NW Patrick:

Could Obama's ads be even more superior to Grandpa's?

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/prescription_ad/

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ronnie:

Boom,

You are being one-sided when it comes to the debate...Nobody is doubting Palin's performance was better than expectations...That's partly because expectations going in were so low...Btw, that 'other guy' did one hell of a job and most of the polling I've seen confirms that...Expecting a significant swing in the polls is just laughable...People vote who's on the top of the ticket, and McCain's favorable ratings (as I'm typing) continues to dip.

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boomshak:

@Mike_in_CA:

"Gosh, you're right boomshak. The electorate really is that stupid to suddenly switch their vote because Palin is a good note-card reader!! SHe is so totally fit to be Vice President it's not even funny!"

You are aware that Biden told COMPLETE LIES at least 10 times last night, right?

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Basil:

Inkani

Yep, the media (I hesitate to say MSM) had portrayed Biden as a walking gaffe-machine and he pretty much blew that notion out of the water.

BooBoo just needs attention. He's in his own hell already.

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CaliforniaIndie:

Did any one else think that Palin had a look on her face similar to Frank the Tank (Will Ferrell in Old School) when he recited that argument at the debate against James Carville?

Once she took her quick jabs leaning into her turn, it was truly like she was hypnotized spewing talking points in a robotic fashion while staring into the camera.

She definitely exceeded expectations, but when the bar is so low that you can tap dance over it, how big an impact will that have with voters?

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Perhaps you non-tax-paying libs should be taxed on your government handouts.

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boomshak:

@ronnie:

I think you may be surprised. Ignore the MSM polls and watch Rasmussen/Gallup.

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Halidai:

What continuously surprises me when I hear Palin described as "hot". Any time I look at her, all I see is a self-centered, ignorant person who cares more for her appearance than anything else, with a really bad underbite and an accent that makes her sound like a moron. None of this is "hot" to me.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

How can you POSSIBLY think Palin is anything other than a bad joke??? The real Palin is clueless and coached on nothing but talking points that she understands .1 mm deep! Those silly expressions she orchestrates to tell middle America she is "one of them" (dumb as a rock) are so annoying and off putting....all that said, ANYTHING better than the Couric interview is an improvement and they will likely see a loss of panic bounce of a point or two for until Tuesday.

PS Imagine Palin in Summit with Putin tossing out all those "oh golly's" Yeah she is ready to be president of the PTA local chapter bake sale

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boomshak:

@Basil:
Inkani

"Yep, the media (I hesitate to say MSM) had portrayed Biden as a walking gaffe-machine and he pretty much blew that notion out of the water."

Do you consider telling lies to be a 'gaffe'?

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Trosen:

NeverMetAnHonestLib:
Biden said, "It's patriotic to pay taxes." More than 30 percent of his supporters are NOT PATRIOTIC.

You libs that think these people deserve a vote must be out of your minds. Or---more likely, YOU don't pay taxes and want the rest of us to support you.

Are you saying I'm a business who registers my official business address in the Cayman Islands and gets tax breaks for outsourcing my labor force to China and Yemen? Because that's the only scenario in which I wouldn't pay taxes in this country at present.

I'm a liberal. I work. I pay my taxes. (plenty of them). Try again with the retardedly asinine and gross generalizations.

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Tyler:

@boomshak

You're completely right that tons of people would rather vote for someone they like rather than someone smart. That's how we got Bush in office, remember?

I have no doubt that McCain would have the advantage in this election if Bush had not driven the country off a cliff in the past 8 years. This has had the effect of alerting some voters as to why selecting your leaders like that is a bad idea, and made other voters at least worry about what their future and their childrens' future is going to be like more than who their imaginary presidential drinking buddy will be.

That's why folksy only buys you so much this year. Palin got a huge spike at the convention because people assumed that, while she had little experience, she would at least be competent. The whole country has been shown otherwise since then. She is at best able to recite talking points reasonably well when not challenged, and while that would be enough for a VP in some election cycles, it clearly isn't this year.

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak:

It doesn't matter how often you keep repeating your Orwellian newspeak that Biden "told lies" just like you tried by repeating the word "cheating" a million times. No one is going to buy your nonsense. People would believe an accusation of lying from Joseph Goebbels before they'd believe an accusation of lying from you.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@ericsp28

You're right that McCain has little to lose (except perhaps his integrity) and I expect all kinds of swift-boat nonsense.

But I can't imagine it working because this isn't 2000 and it isn't 2004. The economy will be as big a deal this year as terrorism was in 2002, and it will be impossible for anyone to change the subject.

Please note: I do not mean to counsel complacency. As a resident of Virginia, I'll be spending the next five weekends knocking on doors instead of arguing with Boomshak & Co. I urge all likeminded patriots to do the same.

____________________

boomshak:

@laguna_b:

@boomshak

Hmm, let's look at Obama's brilliant Foreign Policy instincts:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcIeoSHTyCI

"My assessment is that the surge has not worked..."

And THIS is the guy we want staring down Putin? Sorry, I'll take Sarah.

____________________

KipTin:

So what was Biden reading? Please answer that if reading notes is such a big deal.

Of course loyal Obama supporters did not see the "good" of Palin's performance. It is your political bias. That so many McCain supporters can appreciate Biden's knowledge is very telling about who is wearing the blinders.

____________________

thoughtful:

Kip Tin

Palin is very very mediocre.

____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

You non-tax-paying libs are the same people that expect public school teachers to pay for your children's school supplies and field trips.

If as Joe Biden said, "It's patriotic to pay taxes." What does that may these pathetic leeches?

Now WE REAL AMERICANS have to pay your mortgages.

____________________

ronnie:

I would be very surprised indeed...Pulling out of a key battleground state was almost as big a story as Palin...Again, McCain had a rough day yesterday and Palin saved it...Does that mean people are all the sudden going to support McCain?...I wouldn't put money on it wih his favorable ratings.

____________________

boomshak:

@Inkan1969:

So you are saying that EVERYTHING Biden said last night was true? You sure you want to go there?

http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/10/03/biden-lies-on-obama-meeting-ahmedinijad-without-conditions-and-13-other-lies/

1. TAX VOTE: Biden said McCain voted “the exact same way” as Obama to increase taxes on Americans earning just $42,000, but McCain DID NOT VOTE THAT WAY.

2. AHMADINEJAD MEETING: Joe Biden lied when he said that Barack Obama never said that he would sit down unconditionally with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Barack Obama did say specifically (even on his website), and Joe Biden attacked him for it.

3. OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING: Biden said, “Drill we must.” But Biden has opposed offshore drilling and even compared offshore drilling to “raping” the Outer Continental Shelf.”

4. TROOP FUNDING: Joe Biden lied when he indicated that John McCain and Barack Obama voted the same way against funding the troops in the field. John McCain opposed a bill that included a timeline, that the President of the United States had already said he would veto regardless of it’s passage.

5. OPPOSING CLEAN COAL: Biden says he’s always been for clean coal, but he just told a voter that he is against clean coal and any new coal plants in America and has a record of voting against clean coal and coal in the U.S. Senate.

6. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY VOTES: According to FactCheck.org, Biden is exaggerating and overstating John McCain’s record voting for alternative energy when he says he voted against it 23 times.

7. HEALTH INSURANCE: Biden falsely said McCain will raise taxes on people’s health insurance coverage — they get a tax credit to offset any tax hike. Independent fact checkers have confirmed this attack is false

8. OIL TAXES: Biden falsely said Palin supported a windfall profits tax in Alaska — she reformed the state tax and revenue system, it’s not a windfall profits tax.

9. AFGHANISTAN / GEN. MCKIERNAN COMMENTS: Biden said that top military commander in Iraq said the principles of the surge could not be applied to Afghanistan, but the commander of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force Gen. David D. McKiernan said that there were principles of the surge strategy, including working with tribes, that could be applied in Afghanistan.

10. REGULATION: Biden falsely said McCain weakened regulation — he actually called for more regulation on Fannie and Freddie.

11. IRAQ: When Joe Biden lied when he said that John McCain was “dead wrong on Iraq”, because Joe Biden shared the same vote to authorize the war and differed on the surge strategy where they John McCain has been proven right.

12. TAX INCREASES: Biden said Americans earning less than $250,000 wouldn’t see higher taxes, but the Obama-Biden tax plan would raise taxes on individuals making $200,000 or more.

13. BAILOUT: Biden said the economic rescue legislation matches the four principles that Obama laid out, but in reality it doesn’t meet two of the four principles that Obama outlined on Sept. 19, which were that it include an emergency economic stimulus package, and that it be part of “part of a globally coordinated effort with our partners in the G-20.”

14. REAGAN TAX RATES: Biden is wrong in saying that under Obama, Americans won’t pay any more in taxes then they did under Reagan.

____________________

Tyler:

Cool, I just got my patriotism certificate for the week! (paystub indicating several hundred dollars in federal tax withheld)

____________________

KipTin:

Maybe you should look up the definition of "mediocre." In other words, you are accusing her of being like we "ordinary" Americans... which is not such a bad thing.

____________________

LibraryGirl:

Um, Palin "rocked" if you consider not answering the questions to be a key debating skill.

Presidents & VPs can't change the subject in a crisis.

Sounds like Republicans are the elitists - Obama is ahead bc BOOMboy thinks the American people are "stupid," people will vote for McCain because Palin is "hot."

And, btw, lots of people tuned in last night to see Palin FAIL.

wink-wink.

____________________

zen:

boomshak:

One big difference is that now american people know her with all her hidden corruption exposed and her real face coming out with catie interviews.
honey moon is gone....
People can't forget her face when she become speechless with catie....it's such a pleasure to see it again and again on the web.
Thank Catie, you did great job for America.
Only fools will be coaxed by Sarah thanks to your job.


____________________

boomshak:

LET ME PROVE A POINT:

Be honest now, how many of you Obama Supporters LOVED Sarah Palin's Convention Speech? Would you have predicted the night she gave that speech that the polls would move 15 points towards McCain as a result?

If I had come here the night of her speech and said, "Just watch, McCain is going to rocket in the polls from this!", I am sure I would have been called 32 different varieties of nuts.

____________________

Halidai:

Sorry KipTin, but I expect candidates for the highest offices in the US to be far above "ordinary".

Bush has that "just one of the guys" thing, and look where it got us.

____________________

zen:

boomshak:

One big difference is that now american people know her with all her hidden corruption exposed and her real face coming out with catie interviews.
honey moon is gone....
People can't forget her face when she become speechless with catie....it's such a pleasure to see it again and again on the web.
Thank Catie, you did great job for America.
Only fools will be coaxed by Sarah thanks to your job.


____________________

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Tyler:

You must be paid once a month.

____________________

thoughtful:

@ronnie

The veep thing doesn't count for a crock. You're right.

Tomorrow Rasmussen and Gallup will have McCain -8%; Hotline -7%; R2K -11%. GwU Battleground who knows -5%?

Any way you slice it or diceit McCain is in deep, holed below the water and shipping water.

Going into Tuesday debate I think he will get calmly chewed up and spit out. He may lose it completely on National TV, we will see.

Never happy morning for John McCain should never had started lieing, no integrity, no trust, nothing to offer

____________________

OGLiberal:

Say 50M people did watch last night. Assume that 40% of those people were Palin true believers, folks who would support her even if she got up there and drooled and moaned for 90 minutes. Assume another 40% were Dems either tuned in to watch Biden or to see the trainwreck that is Palin. Now assume that 20% of the rest of the viewers were undecideds. I think that's being generous - it was probably more like a 50/40/10 split. But let's give them 20%. Does anybody really think that half or more of those people came away from that performance saying, "I'm voting for McCain!" I don't think so. Even in Luntz's focus group, where almost every participant said Palin won (I'm assuming simply because she didn't speak in tongues and run off the stage), only 4 people - looked like there were about 20 in the room - said that they were now leaning towards a candidate....3 chose McCain, 1 Obama. I don't think last night made up the minds of a large number of undecideds. If they were undecided coming in to the night, most were undecided coming out of the night. The only poll numbers that might change a little bit are Palins fav/unfav numbers and her "experienced enough" numbers, and that's only because she was actually able to - barely - put together complete sentences.

I'm an Obama supporter but, I'm sorry, I disagree with the pundits - I think she was terrible last night. She looked nervous, she talked too fast, she strung together canned talking points that didn't really belong together. She answered almost none of the actual questions asked. And that faux folksiness act? It was disgusting. It was freaking condescending, to say the least. The McCain campaign actually thinks they can win over undecideds simply by having their veep candidate throw in a few "you betch'yas", "doggone its", and a wink here and there? Man, do they underestimate the intelligence of American voters. I'm not saying this doesn't go over well with the conservative base. (you know, the people who thought Palin did better against Biden than McCain did against Obama, which is just ridiculous) But these debates aren't really targeted at the base of either party's candidate. It's the undecideds who matter. And I think most of them came away from last night asking, "What exactly did she say and why was she talking like a complete caricature?"

Maybe the polls will prove me wrong. Who knows? But she was ten times better at the convention, even if that performance was hokey as well. She was high in the polls after that because she was an unknown...a new, fresh face. But as people got to know her, the reality sank in - and people saw that there was nothing there. I don't think last night did much to change that, contrary to what the pundits are saying.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak:

Stop the ACLU? Stop the people that are defending the freedoms of the first amendment, the most fundamental United States value of all?

____________________

Halidai:

I didn't LOVE Palin's convention speech. After about 10 seconds of hearing her irritating voice spew vitriol and lies, I turned it off.

____________________

NW Patrick:

All this talk about HOW MANY people watched the debate and that somehow favors Palin. Check this out from Nielson Ratings. What was the #1 market for viewership for last night's debate? * The Baltimore market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 59.1, you know, the big conservative area that it is:)

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

niTpiK and boomshat,

Since SarahBaracuda was sooooooooooo good at the debate last night, and REALLY fired up the masses, wouldn't it be a good idea to let her go through an interview on a Sunday news program? She'd reach MILLIONS of viewers and wouldn't have to do all that travel from one site to another, speaking to a few thousand here and a few thousand there. It would save a lot of wear and tear on her, and would save the McBrain-less campaign untold money, wouldn't it?

If she is soooooooooo prepared, when will she do another interview, so we will be able to tell she's 'the real deal' and last night was not just her parroting talking points?

____________________

Dana Adini:

@boomshak

save your talking points.....since the debate

INTRADE

Obama + 3.8 68.6
McCain - 2.5 31.5

CASE CLOSED

____________________

Dross:

It'll be interesting to see poll results taken after the VP debate. My prediction is that there'll be zero to minimal change, with any changes favoring the Obama/Biden ticket. This is essentially due to the overwhelming fact that Bien has now offcially won the debate. That's 2-0 for Obama/Biden.

Palin may have done well with some likability scores, but those are irrelevant. The most important and devastating number came from CNN's question on qualification. A staggering 87% felt Biden was ready to lead compared to Palin's 42%. All other polls say the same thing. American's agree overwhelmingly that Palin is not qualified to be VP.

Personally I'm not surprised. Palin stuck to a heavily rehearsed script and dodged any questions that would require her to think on her feet. Most Americans have the intelligence to see through her shocking lack of credibility.

It's clear the Palin gamble is now officially a failure for the GOP. She didn't pick up the female/Hillary vote (most women favor Obama) and she lost her only debate. For Republicans to spin her performance as some kind of win simply because she didn't make a bumbling idiot of herself is absurd. The bar for Palin was set way low. Stepping over can barely be called a triumph, even for someone so deeply unqualified and in over her head as Sarah Palin.

All the GOP can do now is hide Palin from the media so that she doesn't do any more damage.

IMHO the Palin gamble was reckless, transparent and rather tacky. And now it's backfired in the GOP's face, all without the help of Dick Chaney and his hunting rifle.

Consider this independent for Obama now.

____________________

boomshak:

@Inkan1969:
@boomshak:

"Stop the ACLU? Stop the people that are defending the freedoms of the first amendment, the most fundamental United States value of all?"

So you are saying the lies I posted are incorrect then, just because they came from that website?

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful,

I will take until Monday to see the full effect in the tracking polls.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

actually KipTin, i prefer my leaders to be much above "ordinary" Americans. Besides, Sarah Palin only talks like an ordinary American. Betcha didn't know her net worth is 1.2 million. How many "ordinary" folks are worth a cool mil? (And own an airplane?)

Sarah Palin is an egocentric, clueless, pandering fraud. She is a joke and an embarassment to America. Luckily, Americans are so far smarter than that.

And as for that dipsh*t who is going around accusing "liberals" of not paying taxes -- Most of the richest people in this country don't have "salaries" anymore, just investments, so they pay ZERO dollars in income tax. ZERO. And WE are taking handouts?

Keep fighting those battles of 1980. Big Government = bad, Liberals = lazy, welfare-abusing minorities. Look how well those arguments are working nowadays.

I feel truly sad for 45% of Americans.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak:

You got some other accuser?...

____________________

Dana Adini:

"Gov. Palin what is your opinion of the new Bankruptcy regulations?"

I Agree. back to energy....("I wasn't coached on the topic")

____________________

boomshak:

@Dross:

Dude, the CNN Poll is bullsh*t ok? They have refused to release their sample weightings even though they did last week. Last week, they oversampled Dems by 14 points.

This week, they are hiding the numbers.

____________________

bclintonk:

Palin didn't make a major gaffe. More than that, she was folksy, even charming sometimes, and she got out her main talking points. But she wasn't presidential, and despite the media setting the bar lower for her than for any major presidential or vice-presidential candidate EVER, that's what the voting public was looking for. Biden cleared the "presidential" bar easily. And Biden did much more. He said he'd use his extensive legislative experience to be the Administration's point person with Congress, and he said he'd be at President Obama's side, offering his independent advice on every major policy question, foreign or domestic, that came across the President's desk---reassuring stuff to the dwindling number of undecided who still had reservatinos about Obama's experience level. What did Palin say she'd do? Well, start with a scary-creepy threat to carry out Cheney's Constitutionally suspect theory of the Vice Presidency being an indepednent "fourth branch" of government. That, and being dispatched by McCain to advocate for special needs kids---a worthy cause, no doubt, but more traditionally the stuff of a First Lady than a VP. Which all says she wouldn't have much of a role in a McCain White House, and a good thing, too, because she showed no command of the real challenges facing the country. Look for follow-up post-debate polls to confirm and underscore what the snap polls said so clearly: despite the Republicans' jubilation that Palin didn't spontaneously combust on-stage, the American people came away far more impressed with Joe Biden. Biden won this debate hands down.

____________________

Dana Adini:

I think we've had 8 years too much of folksy people in charge. She had the Bush wink down pat.

What's his approval rating again 25%?

____________________

boomshak:

@Inkan1969:

Just Google "Biden Lies". There are lots of sites covering it.

____________________

thoughtful:

@KipTin

The reality is that it takes an extraordinary ability as most recently displayed by Bill Clinton to be a successful President of the US.

Al Gore was probably the best US VP not to become President, in stead we got Bush that is what mediocrity brings.

Ronald Reagan, too, had extraordinary abilities. McCain and Palin have none.

Well McCain owes everything to his father, then married into money and office and has turned his time as a POW as some sort of qualification. He is an extraordinary scoundrel as has quickly emerged from this campaign.

____________________

KipTin:

Like I indicated before... some of you do not understand what political "debate" entails. It is all about the "message" not the question.
---------

Funny... stating that Bush was "ordinary" when his dad was President and Bush worked on his dad's campaigns. Also consider his family wealth and his Ivy League education. How you were fooled that Bush was "just one of the guys" is beyond me. (And none of this BS about Americans being so dumb to vote him in when in fact Al Gore won the popular vote.)

____________________

boomshak:

@Dana Adini:

Bush's Approval Rating Calculator:

Democrat Congress Approval Rating
X 2
=
Bush's Approval Rating

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

I'm not going to do your work.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Boomshak, 12.5% rating for democarts in congress is goingto get them another 2 years as the majority the Senate and the House.

U are so out of touch

____________________

KipTin:

No use wasting any more time on you.. thoughtful. Your extraordinarily skewed opinion of McCain and Palin is based on brainwashing by Obamanation and not based in reality.

I understand many people preferring Obama, but I do not understand the vileness coming from Obamanation.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@boomshak

I actually thought Palin's performance at the convention was very good. I said that to my wife immediately after she finished speaking. That doesn't mean I agreed with anything she said or that I didn't think it included a bunch of faux folksiness. But I thought her performance - emphasis on "performance" - and delivery were very good - confident, well delivered, polished. I had no doubt that McCain's numbers were going to go up as a result because a) it further solidified the formerly reluctant base and b) for indies and undecideds, she was a new, fresh face who performed well in her national debut. But over the course of the past several weeks, people got to know the real Sarah Palin...and it wasn't a pretty picture. In order even begin to repair the damage that had been done as a result of her full unveiling, she needed to deliver a performance last night that was even better than her convention performance. She didn't do that...she didn't even come close. I'll admit, she did better than she did in her interviews with Couric, but that's certainly nothing to write home about.

This debate will have no impact on the polls or the race. And I think any impact it has will be in Obama's direction. She was terrible and oh so contrived.

____________________

zotz:

Ah come on Boom!- Cinnamonape, Trosan, and js already kicked yer butt on that phony list. And when they did it you refused to debate and you ran and hid behind your mommy. Now you think they have gone away so you are trying again to peddle that garbage again.

Well it's NO SALE!
Everybody, check it out on the Battleground tracking thread this morning

____________________

Dana Adini:

Kiptin,

got nothing against Palin. She's nice, but she isn't qualified. It's the fact. She may motivate the base, but she ain't quafilied she was reading off cards but she doesn't understand the issues, she didn't answer the questions. She may understand energy, but not pakistan, middle east, economics, etc. She is a sports reporter.

____________________

Cane Cattivo:

@NeverMetAnHonestLib:

"Non-taxpers should not be allowed to vote. That would absolutely decimate Obama's campaign. More than 30% of Obama supporters pay NO taxes and want the rest of us to support them. BYW, they make up a HUGE portion of those getting polled.

America was built on the idea that people should not have taxation WITHOUT representation. People that aren't taxed DESERVE NO REPRESENTATION, and NO VOTE."

1. Logical error:

"No taxation without representation" means "If you pay taxes, you have to get representation"; it does not mean "If you have representation you have to pay taxes". Paying taxes is a sufficient condition for representation, but not a necessary one. You are committing a pretty basic fallacy here.

2. Factual error:

If you buy a gallon of milk, or a loaf of bread, you are paying taxes. It could well be that more than 30% of Obama's voters are poor, but they still buy milk and bread, and thus they pay taxes.

So nevermet, you are a disaster in both fronts. Pobre animalito de Dios!

____________________

Dana Adini:

got this from a friend....

MY HOLIDAY WITH JOHN McCAIN

It was just before John McCain's last run at the presidential nomination in 2000
that my husband and I vacationed in Turtle Island in Fiji with John McCain,
Cindy, and their children, including Bridget (their adopted Bangladeshi child).

It was not our intention, but it was our misfortune, to be in close quarters
with John McCain for almost a week, since Turtle Island has a small number of
bungalows and their focus on communal meals force all vacationers who are there
at the same time to get to know each other intimately.

He arrived at our first group meal and started reading quotes from a pile of
William Faulkner books with a forest of Post-Its sticking out of them. As an
English Literature major myself, my first thought was "if he likes this so much,
why hasn't he memorized any of this yet?"

I soon realized that McCain actually thought we had come on vacation to be a
volunteer audience for his "readings" which then became a regular part of each
meal. Out of politeness, none of the vacationers initially prot
ested at this
intrusion into their blissful holiday, but people's buttons definitely got
pushed as the readings continued day after day.

Unfortunately this was not his only contribution to our mealtime entertainment.
He waxed on during one meal about how Indo-Chine women had the best figures and
that our American corn-fed women just couldn't meet up to this standard. He also
made it a point that all of us should stop Cindy from having dessert as her
weight was too high and made a few comments to Amy, the 25 year old wife of the
honeymooning couple from Nebraska that she should eat less as she needed to lose
weight.

McCain's appreciation of the beauty of Asian women was so great that David the
American economist had to move his Thai wife to the other side of the table from
McCain as McCain kept aggressively flirting with and touching her.

Needless to say I was irritated at his large ego and his rude behavior towards
his wife and other women, but decided he must have some redeeming qualities as
he had adopted a handicapped child from Bangladesh. I asked him about this one
day, and his response was shocking: "Oh, that was Cindy's idea – I didn't have
anything to do with it. She just went and adopted this thing without even asking
me. You can't imagine how people stare when I wheel this ugly, black thing
around in a shopping cart in Arizona. No, it wasn't my idea at a
ll."

I actively avoided McCain after that, but unfortunately one day he engaged me in
a political discussion which soon got us on the topic of the active US bombing
of Iraq at that time. I was shocked when he said, "If I was in charge, I would
nuke Iraq to teach them a lesson". Given McCain's personal experience with the
horrors of war, I had expected a more balanced point of view. I commented on the
tragic consequences of the nuclear attacks on Japan during WWII – but no, he was
not to be dissuaded. He went on to say that if it was up to him he would have
dropped many more nuclear bombs on Japan. I rapidly extricated myself from this
conversation as I could tell that his experience being tortured as a POW didn't
seem to have mellowed out his perspective, but rather had made him more
aggressive and vengeful towards the world.

My final encounter with McCain was on the morning that he was leaving Turtle
Island. Amy and I were happily eating pancakes when McCain arrived and told Amy
that she shouldn't be having pancakes because she needed to lose weight. Amy
burst into tears at this abusive comment. I felt fiercely protective of Amy
and immediately turned to McCain and told him to leave her alone. He became
very angry and abusive towards me, and said, "Don't you know who I am." I ooked
him in the face and said, "Yes, you are the biggest asshole I have ever m
et" and
headed back to my cabin. I am happy to say that later that day when I arrived
at lunch I was given a standing ovation by all the guests for having stood up to
McCain's bullying.

Although I have shared my McCain story informally with friends, this is the
first time I am making this public. I almost did so in 2000, when McCain first
announced his bid for the Republican nomination, but it soon became apparent
that George Bush was the shoo-in candidate and so I did not act then. However,
now that there is a very real possibility that McCain could be elected a s our
next president, I feel it is my duty as an American citizen to share this story.
I can't imagine a more scary outcome for America than that this abusive,
aggressive man should lead our nation. I have observed him in intimate
surroundings as he really is, not how the media portrays him to be. If his
attitudes toward women and his treatment of his own family are even a small
indicator of his real personality, then I shudder to think what will happen to
America were he to be elected as our President.
--
Mary-Kay Gamel
Professor of Classics, Comparative Literature, and Theater Arts
Cowell College
University of California, Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, California 95064
831-459-2381 (office); 831-429-8803 (home)
mkgamel@ucsc.edu

____________________

thoughtful:

@KipTin

I am a Radical Obama is a Moderate. My support is giving Obama the doubt, I don't like Biden either, I have with good reason a deep distrust for politicians as they are normally completely untrustworthy. So get it right!

With regards to McCain he's too old, lacks the intellect, lacks the temperament, and lacks a progressive vision. He has a monchrome view of the world and is a dangerous militarist.

Palin is simply completely out of her depth.

____________________

KipTin:

Let's see. Full-time working middle age couple who have a commercial fishing business, husband works on North Slope, and wife is elected official, and they self-built their home on a lake lot in Wasilla. So $1.2 million is not so out of bounds. (My parents lakeside "cabin" is now assessed at $230K and it is located in a depressed rural area.)

P.S. The float plane tied up to their dock has been in the family for over 20 years.

____________________

HogsBreath:

My thoughts are that McCain and the RNC are about to re-define the term negative and start blasting away.

My theory is that the race will tighten and as it does the media picks up the chant that "McCain is back!" which will feed upon itself in both the media and the poll numbers.

I think, and I sure do hope I'm wrong, that the race will be tight at the end.

____________________

thoughtful:

Ok out for lunch, any movement caused by this debate will be visible on Monday.

A pig with lipstick is still a pig!

There will not be anything going McCain/Palin's way in the polls

Never glad mornings for John McCain

____________________

chgo1:

Hey Boomloser,

Just because people tuned in to watch Caribou Barbie does not mean they are going to vote for her..is that too complicated for you? Rest assured, she has alienated a HUGE number of women that she will not get back and her fake charm, "joe six-pack," winking at the camera crap belittles the office and insults the public. She does a good job of reading talking points and spouting the same policies of a failed administration..that's it!

It's like a car accident..even slows down but that does not mean they want to be involved.

____________________

ErnieLynch:

boomshak:

I will take until Monday to see the full effect in the tracking polls.

Indeed it will, it will take at least that long for the voters to get over the shock of hearing Sarah.

____________________

KipTin:

Hilarious... Dana Adini... posting a "letter" from an academic elitist who apparently is part of Obamanation.

____________________

Rames1980:

The idea that Palin would have scored some electoral points in the debate is very odd. According to the snap polls, many more independents were moved to Obama/Biden than to McCain/Palin as a result of the debate.

Palin is a hockey mom who doesn't know much of how the world works. If she were vice president and sent on a mission to Moscow to negotiate a deal on nuclear weapons, the Russians would haggle her bra right off her. Along with America's missiles. She's out of her league, eyes twinkiling or no.

I don't even think that it should be "ok" to send someone to a vice presidential debate after cramming her head with talking points, when everyone knows she can offer nothing of substance. This isn't "American Idol".

____________________

Dana Adini:

kiptin

first of all just because she is a prof. doesn't mean she is lying

Every academic is an elitist?

____________________

HogsBreath:

The Rebs are looking for any foothold to change the national topic and the debate last night may serve that purpose.

Granted the bar for Palin was set pretty low but she managed to jump (walk?) over it.

____________________

Dana Adini:

what hilarious is that John has the things for asian women

____________________

zotz:

Kiptin-
I've got some good news for you. Beginning Nov. 5 YOU will be part of Obama Nation!

something for you to look forward to!

____________________

Dana Adini:

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Ohio adults, of whom 620 watched the debate last night between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden. Of debate watchers:

37% say Palin was the clear winner.
38% say Biden was the clear winner.
24% say there was no clear winner.
Debate audience was 31% Republican, 37% Democrat, 24% Independent.

47% say their opinion of Palin went up. 18% say their opinion of Palin went down.
38% say their opinion of Biden went up. 22% say their opinion of Biden went down.
Ohio debate watchers say:

Palin was more likable.
Biden had a better command of the facts.
Biden was more ready to assume the office of President, should that become necessary.
More:

50% say that Biden makes the Democratic ticket stronger, 17% say he makes the ticket weaker, 32% say he makes no difference.
51% say that Palin makes the Republican ticket stronger, 33% say she makes the ticket weaker, 16% say she makes no difference.
76% of Republicans and 56% overall think Palin would be a better Vice President than Dick Cheney.
28% of Republicans and 57% overall think Biden would be a better Vice President than Dick Cheney.
SurveyUSA state of Ohio research conducted exclusively for WCMH-TV Columbus, WHIO-TV Dayton, and WKYC-TV Cleveland

____________________

m913:

Did anyone notice that when McCain voted for the bailout bill, he was voting for earmarks?

____________________

Dana Adini:

Survet USA also have a link stating that a similar poll in florida shows that "Biden won the debate" by a slight margin. Details to follow

This debate changed nothing

____________________

Dana Adini:

From Survey USA

Immediately following last night’s debate between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of California adults, of whom 839 watched the debate. Of debate watchers:

51% say Biden was the clear winner.
32% say Palin was the clear winner.
17% say there was no clear winner

____________________

boomshak:

JUST IN CASE YOU DOUBTED MSM BIAS AGAINST PALIN, CHECK THIS FROM THE TODAY SHOW THIS AM:

They assembled 7 (supposedly) undecided women from 7 different battleground states to watch the debate. Here is part of the dialog:

ROBACH: By a show of hands, how many people were disappointed or have a less favorable view of Sarah Palin after watching her tonight? Nearly everyone.


MELANIE McCORMICK, FLORIDA VOTER: She avoided the questions that were clearly asked to her. I really do not feel that she's ready to lead this country (Obama talking point anyone?).


ROBACH: How many people now have a more favorable view of Senator Biden post-debate?


UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: I really like what Joe Biden said about what happened during the last four years. Our economy has gone down(Obama talking point anyone?).

So basically, this ROBACH chick asks "How many of you HATE Palin more after this?". Then she asks, "How many of you LOVE Biden more after this"...

Lol, I have a feeling these were the same "handpicked independents" in the CNN/CBC Polls.

I am telling you, the MSM is in full-blown panic over a Palin resurgence.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Never met,

Re: Paying taxes as a prerequisite to vote:

You have never read the Constitution?

Amendment XXIV (24th for the unwashed):

"Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax.

"Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation."

Key words:
"The right of citizens of the United States to vote . . .shall not be denied or abridged . . . by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax."

In other words, if you are a citizen, the Constitution of the United States of America says that whether or not you pay a tax, you still have the right to vote. You might be disqualified for other reason, but paying or not paying taxes is NOT a valid and legitimate reason to disqualify a person from being able to exercise their right to vote.

Now go get Amendment XXIV revoked (by passage of a new Amendment (you DO know how that is done, don't you?) if you want to make paying taxes a prerequisite ('required beforehand' for the unwashed) for voting.

Until then, STFU about only people who pay taxes should be able to vote. Otherwise, all you do is make yourself look like a rascist, supporting a KooKKy organization.

____________________

Dana Adini:

@boomshak

no you're panicing cause u are getting creamed in the polls

____________________

boomshak:

@Dana Adini:
From Survey USA

"Immediately following last night’s debate between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of California adults, of whom 839 watched the debate."

Holy sh*t dude, Obama has a frickin 17 POINT LEAD in California! What the hell did you expect?

I have an idea, let's run that same Poll in TN, TX or GA ok?

____________________

Dana Adini:

fivethirtyeight.com

Prob. of Obama win 83.8%
Prob. of McCain win 16.2%

Panic my ass.

____________________

Dana Adini:

@boomshak

all im trying to say is:

1) biden won in Ohio and Florida
2) the debate changed nothing
3) McCain was way behind before the debate and way behind after the debate

____________________

boomshak:

SURVEYUSA: VP DEBATE WINNER

WASHINGTON:
42% say Palin was the clear winner.
39% say Biden was the clear winner.
18% say there was no clear winner.

OHIO:
37% say Palin was the clear winner.
38% say Biden was the clear winner.
24% say there was no clear winner.

Gee, these seem to conflict with the CNN/CBS numbers, don't they? I think I KNOW where CNN/CBS found their "independent" voters.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat,

Since you have such a penchant to post things out of context, or with important details left out, I do not believe a word of anything you say unless you can also post a link to a LEGITIMATE source for the information.

Therefore, I would wager that you left out important details of the survey of undecideds.

____________________

Dana Adini:

washington is out of reach and you are losing in ohio. In both states the results are within the MOE.

NOTHING CHANGED YOU ARE BEHIND

____________________

boomshak:

@Dana Adini:

You could be right and maybe the debate will mean nothing. Or maybe I am right and we will experience a "post convention effect".

What is most likley is something in the middle.

____________________

Dana Adini:

middle doesn't help you

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike In Maryland:
boomshat,

"Since you have such a penchant to post things out of context, or with important details left out, I do not believe a word of anything you say unless you can also post a link to a LEGITIMATE source for the information.

Therefore, I would wager that you left out important details of the survey of undecideds."

How much you want to wager?
Washington:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/10/03/state-of-washington-poll-split-decision-on-palin-biden-vice-presidential-debate/

Ohio:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/10/03/ohio-poll-palin-biden-debate-is-split-decision/


____________________

boomshak:

@Mike In Maryland:

And of course, Obama killed in CA, but that is to be expected.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat,

The 'undecideds' I was speaking about were in the 'transscript' in your 'MSM BIAS AGAINST PALIN' diatribe.

Oh, and point for you. I provoked you into responding to one of my messages for (I believe) the very first time! Congratulations, as you should know that I sometimes set a trap for stupid responders to my messages. Did I set one this time, or did I not? Were you a stupid responder who will fall into my trap, or just a stupid responder?

____________________

boomshak:

GOOD LORD!

45% of all households in major markets watched last night's debate!

You Obozonauts better pray they didn't like Sarah and this changes nothing.

____________________

boomshak:

VP DEBATE: 45% Of Households In Top Local TV Markets...

11.1 million viewers for FOXNEWS -- Largest audience in network's history...
10,685,000 viewers for CNN... MORE...

Wow...

____________________

Trosen:

What's there to pray for? The best non-Fox text polls you could find were even-Steven. How does this overcome a 7 point deficit? Palin tied Biden in a debate so now there's a 7 point swing?

____________________

Dana Adini:

ne Rasmussen poll Nevada

Obama 51
McCain 47

____________________

ronnie:

It's funny how some of the Repubs are predicting a swing in polls when most consider Biden the winner.

Unfortunately for Repubs, the insta polls from the vp debate are very similiar to those after the first presidential debate...It's clear Obama made more gains nationally and in battleground states after the first debate...The only thing Palin did was erase some doubts about her readiness...Many are still going to point to her recent interviews as proof she is still out of her league..Biden was 'the professional' in this debate....His performance only strengthened momentum for the Dem ticket.

____________________

boomshak:

I HAVE A POLLING RECOMMENDATION:

Polling has become a huge force in our current political world. Political polls are used to lead the news and set the narrative.

Unfortunately, the SAMPLE used in polls is often withheld or suspect. But there is a solution.

GOVERNMENT POLLING BUREAU:
Create a government bureau that keeps a weekly running tally of NATIONAL PARTY AFFILIATION based upon actuarial studies, government data and thousands of phone calls.

Anyone performing a National Poll MUST weight their poll by these established Party Affiliation Standards.

This way, the poll reader has a FRAME OF REFERENCE from which to evaluate all polls against a standard.

I am sure this would annoy the MSM to no end as it takes away their #1 tool for manipulating public opinion.

____________________

boomshak:

Sarah Palin Won the Debate Against Joe Biden

October 03, 2008 11:44 AM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

I thought Sarah Palin won—because she (far) exceeded expectations, because she showed considerable suppleness (countering Joe Biden's statement that the commanding general said that John McCain's surge strategy would not work in Afghanistan), and spotlighted her winning personality. She showed the same smiling confidence that she did in her acceptance speech September 3 and that was missing in her interview with Katie Couric. Biden's performance was by and large acceptable, but he made some significant misstatements, notably on the Constitution. Article I of the Constitution is not about the executive branch, as Biden said, but about the legislative branch, in which Biden has served for 35 years. And the vice president doesn't preside over the Senate just in cases of ties; he (or she) is entitled to preside over the Senate at any time. Imagine the uproar from Mainstream Media if Palin had made such errors! She does seem to be taking a little flak over her seemingly bizarre statement that she would seek more constitutional powers for the vice presidency. But, as you may remember, Lyndon Johnson, one of our most experienced vice presidents, sought to continue to attend Democratic Caucus meetings after he was elected vice president. He was hastily disinvited.

I have one major criticism of Palin's performance. She failed to pound home one important argument that the McCain campaign has unaccountably failed to make. She did point out briefly that McCain sought in 2005 to impose tighter regulation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that Democrats opposed this Republican move. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac then proceeded to encourage the issuance of subprime and Alt-A mortgages, injecting toxic waste into financial institutions of all kinds. Politicians of both parties share responsibility for widening home ownership further than should have been done. But Democrats can be fairly blamed for failing to rein in Fannie and Freddie. Here the case is laid out by my American Enterprise Institute colleagues Peter Wallison and Charles Calomiris. And two British writers, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Dominic Lawson and the Times of London's Gerard Baker, have done a better job on this issue than almost any of their American counterparts.

Will the VP debate move votes? Current polling shows Obama 5 or 6 percentage points ahead of McCain. Obama is ahead (in some cases, of course, by minimal margins) in recent polling in states with 353 electoral votes. The McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan. Post-convention polling showed McCain in contention to carry Michigan, a state George W. Bush lost in 2000 and 2004, but more recent polling showed Obama well ahead there. McCain needs to move ahead in national opinion in order to be competitive. A dreadful performance by Palin might have conclusively prevented him from doing so. Now he has a chance.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/10/3/sarah-palin-won-the-debate-against-joe-biden.html?s_cid=rss:barone:sarah-palin-won-the-debate-against-joe-biden

____________________

zhimbo:

boomshak:

Way to go! Glaring violation of the first ammendment and an intrusive gov't solution to your polling pet peeve!

____________________

boomshak:

@zhimbo:

I wasn't aware that using bogus sampling in a public poll was 1st ammendment right?

The government issues other standards. For instance, the government tells us how long a foot is. Can you imagine if it were up to each person or business to decide on their ow how long a foot is?

No, polling samples are not "free speech".

____________________

ticketstub:

At what point did it become assumed that a lot of people tuning in to watch the debate would help McCain? Palin was fine, and in my opinion Biden was better but no one really blew the other out of the water. I'd say Palin lost when Biden got emotional and it cut back to her, smiling saying a rehearsed bit without addressing what he had just said. Or when she did the same thing when Biden very strongly said we needed to stop genocide in Darfur, and she just ignored it with her "ain't I cute?" smile. But that's my opinion.

In the end though...this debate isnt going to affect anything. The bases were rallied, and the undecideds will wait for the other presidential debates. If anything, I'd kind of expect more women to jump of the Palin ship.

____________________

Lucky Luke:

@boomshack

I've been reading Pollster a lot and this is the first time I feel compelled to post. Man, you had just made some splendid posts in other threads and now you come back to the partisanship. I know some of the tone is just to provoke (and that's what makes them fun) but I'd rather see the analytical boomshack.

As for the debate, I don't think it'll change much although it will be a good tool to know how strong is this last Obama bump, if it was a serious trend or it's the bandwagon jumpers that have abounded in this election. I thin it may be settled by now, but let's wait and see...

____________________

Paul:

Mike Barone is staunch conservative. He makes Sarah Palin look like Bella Abzug with a more raspy voice.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

I agree that Sarah Palin completely exceeded expectations yesterday. She was charming, personable and did not make any major blunders.

However, anyone saying that she WON partly because "she exceeded expectations" automatically forfeits the credibility of their opinion. If a professional football team is a 21 point underdog, and they lose by 10 points, they have still lost even if they exceeded expectations.

It's just a stupid argument.

____________________

ticketstub:

Mike Barone also is happy to call out Biden's mess-up on the number of the article of the constitution, but not Palin's mess-up of the name of the commander in Afghanistan.

Personally, I think both are completely innocent and inconsequential mistakes, but at least call them BOTH out.

____________________

Dana Adini:

she beat the spread but lost the game

____________________

vmval1:

S W E E T J E S U S

INTRADE - Obame 73.9 McCain 29.4

WOW!!

____________________

Paul:

KipTin:

MN - SUSA does show McCain +1, but the sample is flawed. The ideology sampled is far too conservative compared to 2004 exit poll. Adjusted, Obama is up 6.

____________________

Lechuguilla:

Minnesota is one of the most Democratic states in U.S. When Obama is up by 6 nationally, you can be sure that he is up by a lot more than 6 in all Democratic states, including Minnesota.

Making a big deal out of this one SUSA poll reeks of grasping at straws.

Lech

____________________



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