10/15-17, 08; 797 LV 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 49, McCain 42
5-8 point lead for Obama. I'll take it.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:33 PM
Diageo Hotline suggests that the movement we're seeing in the polls is not a flight by Democrats and independents from Obama but a return home by Republicans to McCain:
While Obama's margins among Indies and Dems are nearly identical to last week, McCain's advantage among GOPers has jumped 10%.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:37 PM
Other than some of the national trackers, Obama's lead in the key states seems to be stable. I was going to say that this race is over, but I will give McCain a one week reprieve because of the recent movement in the national polls. Here are my present projections:
National Margin: Obama by 5.7 percent
Electoral College: Obama 364-166-8
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:43 PM
Oh, and look are my website: people.carleton.edu/~schakj
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:44 PM
Important to not that Obama has a 7 point advantage with only a 41D 37R 18I breakdown. More favorable than even Rasmussen.
"Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/15-17 by FD, surveyed 797 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I."
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:46 PM
More favorable towards R (sorry)
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:47 PM
For daily tracking, I think Gallup and Rasmussen are the only ones to be taken seriously.
Hotline are especially all over the place and not in tune with other polls at all.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:53 PM
right. More specifically, Rasmussen and Gallup LV2.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:58 PM
Gallup: Obama won the debate
Americans who watched Wednesday’s third and final presidential debate say Barack Obama did a better job than John McCain by 56% to 30%. The public viewed Obama as the winner of all three debates.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:00 PM
RV McCain -1
Both LVs unchanged
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:03 PM
gallup 50-42 (m-1)RV
Registered Obama 50 McCain 42
Obama gains one point among registered voters.
LV traditional and expanded remain the same.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:04 PM
RV: Obama 50 McCain 42
LV: unchanged from yesterday
It's pretty stable. Wow.
I was just thinking about the obama 30 minutes on 10/29...These guys are excellent strategist. They are going to deliver a first class experience. My take, your going to get a mini-convention bump going right into election day...The question is how much? I think 2%...Which is no laughing matter 5 days before a GE.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:05 PM
Everyday it is the same...is a victory for obama. Now tt's like moving an elephant or bringing two north polar magnets together...you can only bring them so close before there's a lot of resistance
you want more analogies? i got a ton of them.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:06 PM
Keep thisg going giys, fight fascism:
correction LV1 has changed
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:07 PM
If both Ras and Gallup show Obama won the last debate with a big margin, we will see the full impact of that by next Monday/Tuesday. I expect Obama's Ras/Gallup numbers will clim up again by early next week.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:08 PM
poor show fromm gallup with LV1
still no worries obama gone from LV1 53-43 to 50-46
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:09 PM
Wow! This could be a big problem for the Republicans, not only in North Carolina!
Thursday's first day of early voting drew record number... as 114,000 people turned out. 80,000 may have turned out on Friday, despite heavy storms.
That was more than 40 percent over the 2004 figure (Gary Bartlett, Dir. NC State Board of Elections)
Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) had > 10,000 voting on Thursday, 7,000 on Friday...when there was torrential rain!
Exit Polls on the first day~ 64% Democrat, 21% Republican and 15% unaffiliated. African American turnout 36% of Thursday's early voters (vs. 22% of NC currently registered voters). In 2004, blacks made up 18.6% of voters.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:10 PM
Always when there is a little shine of hope
for McCain the next day it is all gone it must be frustrating for John and Cindy.
Obama/Biden for a better world.
OBAMA LEAD SHRINKS AGAIN ON GALLUP!
Ok, first of all, ignore the Registered Voters totals. 3 weeks out from an election, no one pays any attention to that anyway.
The numbers that matter:
O+4 LV (expanded) -2 from yesterday.
O+2 LV (traditional)
McCain just keeps gaining and gaining.
Sorry but Gallup is showing some strange math .. Obama increases his lead to 8 among RV but it goes down to 4 in LV2 and stays at 2 in LV1, Thats just weird.
i really think this is over, i mean democratic voter registration is through the roof, and people hate Palin, i mean people despise Palin!
@cinnamonape - where are u getting those stats?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:11 PM
Not really. As you'll notice from other polls, most people aren't even bothering with RV's anymore.
The sad part is the RV number is the ONLY one anybody in the MSM announces even though it is useless this close to an election.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:13 PM
"Ok, first of all, ignore the Registered Voters totals."
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:14 PM
Palin is drawing 25,000 to 40,000 people at rallies. The people LOVE Palin.
No, this isn't over. Obama is fading badly. He just lost 2 points among the nutty "expanded" LV's.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:15 PM
Marcus it is weird. Chuck Todd mentioned last night the the only "safe" number to prognosticate on is the registered voter #s, and the LV models are just guesswork by the pollster. So be it. National #s are tightening, as the McCain campaign has successfully brought the vast majority of the Republican base home. I'm not surprised by that, nor is the Obama campaign. They predicted this exactly last week.
How would everyone rate the effect of the McCain campaign's Terrorist Robocalls? Typically, robocalls (or direct mail pieces) have to be kept "underground" in order to be effective. With all the publicity they're receiving (beginning the instant they started), I question if they are of any value at all? Susan Collins has disowned them and demanded that they stop in Maine. That's a pretty damaging bat-down from within McCain's own party.
Besides, everyone I know hates Robocalls, and they particularly dispise negative Robocalls.
How about it, are the Robocalls a net plus or minus for McCain?
wouldnt mind seeing those exits aswell
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:16 PM
I think the 30-minute Obama TV Advertisement may not increase the support level too much. It may swing a few of the undecideds. But what it WILL DO is generate a much higher turnout amongst the Democrats...and possibly dull the turnout by Republicans.The former will be enthused, the latter may say "What's the use, I can't vote for the guy...but he's not that bad."
And it's scheduled just before Game 6 of the World Series on FOX...gonna make it hard to not at least catch the closing bits.
Moron, tell me why no other pollster right now even bothers reporting the RV's? if you aren't an LV 3 weeks out, your aren't gonna vote.
well i agree that LV will be more important but how can McCain INCREASE his LV support when his RV support declines . Just seems strange and the 6% difference between RV and LV1 seems very very high´. Btw you can tell from early voting that DEM early turnout is huge .. so the traditional model surely seems out of place.
There was very little rain in Charlotte yesterday and no heavy storms.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:18 PM
"Moron, tell me why no other pollster right now even bothers reporting the RV's? if you aren't an LV 3 weeks out, your aren't gonna vote."
Oh poor cherrypicker, no need to get angry because others find humor in your delusional flailing.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:19 PM
Remember that both Obama and McCain have been saying that their internal polling shows this to be a MUCH closer race than the national polls.
Yeah these are the people who love Palin:
You don't decide if you're a likely voter. THEY decide that you're a likely voter. The LV polls have always struck me as rigged compared to RV polls.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:21 PM
boomshak, jonny, et al:
This arguing over [points up and down every day has become tiresome. lets go for a cease fire and just wait 17 days, we will know the real thing then and we will have saved a lot of energy.
At first I wanted to say Obama historically drops in Gallup on the weekends but who really cares, only 17days are left lets just wait and see
Thank you so very much for posting that link
"Keep thisg going giys, fight fascism:
We were here last night watching this horrible woman expound live on Hardball. We live in MN CD6 and that woman is our Representative. We've been fighting against her ever since her career started with many wins and many losses: this is a red district, which WILL turn blue this cycle!
I do not want to spam pollster with our pleas,but any help to defeat Bachmann by donating to Elwyn would go a LONG WAY. Thanks to Bachmann's appearance on Hardball last night, El has raised over $100,000 in less than 16 hours (with thanks and kuddos to 1AngryDwarf). That is phenomenal.
El was within MOE 4 points before B's appearance. Watch him close the gap and overtake her in the last 2 weeks home stretch with your help! Thanks again!
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:22 PM
was trying to reconcile the state and nation polls. So I tried this little exercise
Took the state weights from 2004 (that's flawed a bit) and took the RCP averages from today (flawed too since they are done at different times)
"And it's scheduled just before Game 6 of the World Series on FOX...gonna make it hard to not at least catch the closing bits."
God won't let the World Series go past 5 games :)
Its not polite to call people morons. Also I agree that the LV totals compared to RVs are crap. How can the expanded and traditional be only 2 points apart. Also If you look at the RVs McCains surge has only gained him 3 points. However I forgot that Boom**** the Pizza Driver knows more then everyone else.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:23 PM
Re: Democratic turnout in early voting.
I'd have to say that THE SURGE IS WORKING!
"Remember that both Obama and McCain have been saying that their internal polling shows this to be a MUCH closer race than the national polls."
Obama campaign says it because they dont want their people to become complacent. McSame campaing says it because they dont want their people to give up.
Change- Here's the article
Apparently some of the supporters of Obama actually had marches of students going to the polls...reminiscent of the Civil Rights marchers going to vote in the Civil Rights era!
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:24 PM
problem with national polls is that the weighted average of each state is 40 even in a big poll and since they are not homgeneous you can get skewed very easily in such small samples
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:25 PM
Trust me, they aren't. They're both worried about fundraising and turnout. Obama doesn't want people getting complacent and McCain doesn't want people giving up on him. I wouldn't believe anything coming from the campaign spin shops. With that said, I've heard nothing from the Obama campaign actually saying their numbers were closer (and closer compared to what... the NYTimes poll? Rasmussen?)
And of course, the overall point: even though I personally suspect Rasmussen is probably closest to the actual national result, even Ras shows that it still translates to electoral college blowout for Obama. Conservatives living and dying by the one tracker a day that shows McCain gaining a point are living in a dream world. It's all about GOTV in the states that matter, kid, and we are demolishing you on that front.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:26 PM
The tax issue, if McCain and Palin continue to hammer Obama with it...will be a winner. Damn that Palin can draw a crowd. Another 10,000 to 12,000 in Pa today.
As far as seeing the full results of the debate until next week, well the debate took place on Wed. So you have 2 full days of polling that have been done.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:27 PM
all the pollsters who measure early voting in their crosstabs a Dem advantages except Florida (Survey USA)
Early voting Georgia
whats the deal with the comparatively low AA male turnout????
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:28 PM
Boomshak is lying again. Obama has stated that the race is closer. Nothing about "much" closer. It's boomshak telling half truths again. This lying monster of a human being doesn't deserve the attention he's getting.
lol she will need more that that to win PA. I guess that was closest place she can campaign and still do SNL
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:29 PM
boom, will you just answer me that one simple question: are we or are we not back on McCain's bandwagon? I keep asking you this all over pollster and you won't have the decency to reply to me! You know, I am starting to feel a little hurt.
Here is what I am thinking. You are, no doubt, familiar with the five stages of grief:
1. Denial and Isolation.
Now, we've seen you mature and graduate through the cycle and accept the imminent McCain defeat. But what you probably failed to realize, is that you are not supposed to cycle through these stages ad infinitum.
It would considerably help your cause, your sanity and time if you just picked one stage and stuck with it until you are ready to move on to the next one.
Just some helpful advice.
In re Obama crowds vs Palin's crowds. While imho, it is not a valid barometer of where things stand at the polls, I have to tell ya, boom, today in St. Louis, MO, Obama drew over 100,000 according to CNN. Where is Palin and how many are there with her? Just curious.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:30 PM
I dont know the reason but it is good news :)
jonny from what I saw the AA turnout in early voting is 31%
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:31 PM
early voter turn out has been very impressive. once again a great sign for obama. and as i continue to say his votes have not slipped away, hes still around 50%. once again a great sign for obama. and id also remind people that although the republican posters on this site keep saying "wait and see" about state polls closing in... its continued to be a steady EV lead for barrack. once again a great sign for obama. its going to be hard to deny that when you look at the states mccain is campaigning in vs. the state barrack is campaigning in. obama is in missouri today... mccain is in north carolina. is that evidence enough that mccain is still trying drastically to stop the bleeding?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:32 PM
Its not polite to call people morons...
"The tax issue, if McCain and Palin continue to hammer Obama with it...will be a winner. Damn that Palin can draw a crowd. Another 10,000 to 12,000 in Pa today."
The tax issue is a disaster for McCain. Obama's "corporate welfare" line is much resonant, and as the AP pointed out, McCain basically considers his own health care plan to be "socialism." Does this guy even know his own proposals? He strolled right into a trap of his own design.
Even the gap is tightening,
Obama is still 50 percent.
That is very important.
and remember, his swing states numbers are higher than national number...
So maccain has to 2-3 percent higher than Obama to win electoral votes.
That will be quite a tough job.
I think these days only FL, OH are bit tightening... other swing states are stable (CO, VA)and even gaining point for obama (MO, ND, WV).
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:33 PM
Obama draws 100K in St. Louis today!
Barack Obama has apparently attracted more people to his rally today in St. Louis, Mo., than to his August acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver.
Lt. Samuel Dotson of the St. Louis Police Department placed the crowd count at 100,000 people, according to the campaign.
"All I can say is, 'Wow,'" Obama said just after taking the stage underneath the Gatway Arch.
Politico has called Dotson to confirm the crowd figure, but has not yet heard back.
It would be his largest crowd since 200,000 people turned out for his speech in Berlin, Germany. About 80,000 people attended his Democratic National Convention speech.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:34 PM
Gallup's likely voter scenarios show a closer race. Gallup's expanded likely voter model, based on respondents' answers to questions about current interest in the election and intention to vote, shows a 50% to 46% race, which is a more narrow lead for Obama among this group than in previous days. If turnout in this year's election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year's election, the race shows Obama leading at 49% to 47%, where it has been among this group for three days.
AA turnout is great in georgia, but thats only because AA women are turning out like crazy. AA male turnout appears pretty modest compared to the electorate in general
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:35 PM
100,000 people show up at Obama rally in St. Louis, Missouri.
Missouri will go blue.
Boomcrap and Batony:
You wanna talk about drawing a crowd? Obama just drew a record-setting 100,000 in St. Louis today!
My god man you are hard to take seriously. The only thing tightening is your sphincter! This race has been incredibly stable. Get back to me when McCain leads in 1 single poll. Just 1. Hell even Kerry lead in a few at this point. And don't just judge the polls, look at where the candidates are today! This is over. The only question is will the tidal wave be big enough to carry the Dem's to 60 senate seats.
"Its not polite to call people morons...
Boom, you know I never called you a bad name in here EVER. So, hopefully you will take it from me: it IS IMPOLITE to call someone a moron. It just is. Maddikat had a valid point, no matter how much you disagree.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:36 PM
100,000 for Obama?
That Sarah Palin sure can draw a crowd!
Maybe McCain will start drawing some Nader supporters now that he supports socialized medicine.
Palin is the VP candidate not the Pres. candidate so her drawing power works perfectly b/c she will basically get the same coverage in the local markets as the Pres. canidate, and Obama didn't draw a 100,000 in ST LOUIS...LOL. But he did have a nice size crowd outside at a memorial. But didn't he have a big crowd like that for the Dem primary at the dome in St. Louis?
As far as the national polls go...the closer they become, the more McCain can claim a comeback and that motivates his supporters who may have thought it was over.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:37 PM
By the way, McCain's hypocritical rhetoric is starting to sound a lot like Hoover's attacks on FDR.
Something tells me that the GOP is going to have a bad 100 days in 2009.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:38 PM
Huge overestimation of that crowd.
What are you fighting over? We all know, LV1 or LV2 is important and I agree with you it is not a 10 point race anymore it is 2-6.
I dont understand what are you trying to prove?
"Huge overestimation of that crowd."
Those crosstabs can't be right! Liberal bias!
in re 100,000 people in MO for Obama:
talk about bad timing, eh, Batony and Boom? It's kinda like McCain hanging his hat on Joe the Plumber. Just bad. Bad. Rotten luck. Looks like somebody is not praying hard enough.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:39 PM
I think everyone here pays too much credit to these national polls, they really don't give you an accurate picture of what is going on.
For example, Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by 7.72% in the national polls but Bush won 79.2% of the electoral votes! (The final tally was Bush 426 - Dukakis 111). So as long as Obama holds onto his 4 - 6 point lead this thing won't even be close in electoral votes.
BTW, I used to live in St Louis. St Louis is VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black. If Obama can't get a big crowd there, he can't get one anywhere.
Gallup took down the page showing LV totals. I think they realized they made a mistake. You may very well see a change.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:40 PM
KEEP THEM COMING BABY:
Some more remarkable early voting stats, in this case from North Carolina:
Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.
African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday's early voters.
In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.
Ha.Ha. Overestimation? Fire Department estimation, not mine. Reported by both CNN and
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:41 PM
Of course the national polls don't matter, as much of the fluctuations have to do with meaningless movement in noncompetitive states. The state polls, where there are fewer undecideds, are much more important, and even the pollsters who show a relatively tight national race still see an EV blowout for Obama.
But the national polls give delusional Republicans hope, so they cling to the ups and downs of statistical noise in desperation.
"BTW, I used to live in St Louis. St Louis is VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black. If Obama can't get a big crowd there, he can't get one anywhere."
There's a black wave coming, baby. Get ready.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:43 PM
Nope, page is back up, numbers are the same. Obama is still screwed.
"The tax issue, if McCain and Palin continue to hammer Obama with it...will be a winner. Damn that Palin can draw a crowd. Another 10,000 to 12,000 in Pa today."
Yeah, we've seen the fascist pricks she draws to her ralleys, you can have them for sure, and hopefully move back to Germany after therace is over.
And really, taxes? Remember a month ago when it was oil? Turns out their amin selling point, Joe, would actually benefit under Obama's plan. And for that matter, would reverting back to the tax system of the 1990's plus a middle class tax cut (which McCain now thinks is Welfare) truly be that bad? It didn't seem to impede economic growth then...
Overestimation? Possibly. But Palin is the one with the record of lying about her crowd numbers. So she's the one we have to be more skeptical about.
Very...black? Is that why you don't live in St. Louis anymore?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:44 PM
so, boom, a minor point, but did Obama
BTW, I used to live in St Louis. St Louis is VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black. If Obama can't get a big crowd there, he can't get one anywhere."
or did he NOT
100,000 people show up at Obama rally in St. Louis, Missouri.
Huge overestimation of that crowd.
draw a large crowd? I need to know what Stage of Denial you are in today as per my above post. TIA
so lets get this straight. obama draws a giant crowd in missouri, not PA, WI, NH, MN, or other battleground states of 2004, but missouri. on the other hand, mccain is not campaigning in the aforementioned battleground states, but in north carolina... where early voter turn out looks great for obama.
so... it what universe does this look good for mccain?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:45 PM
100,000 people at Obama rally in St. Louis, MO
Rasmussen Reports 10/15 - 10/17 3000 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/15 - 10/17 1210 LV 2.9 48 44 Obama +4
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/15 - 10/17 2572 LV 2.0 49 47 Obama +2
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/15 - 10/17 2263 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/12 - 10/16 800 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
IBD/TIPP 10/12 - 10/16 1020 LV 3.5 46 41 Obama +5
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:46 PM
"Nope, page is back up, numbers are the same. Obama is still screwed."
Yup, you've got him right where you want him, with a majority two weeks out while McCain still trails in every single poll and down 200 EVs. Good luck with that strategy...
i can still see the gallup numbers
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:47 PM
Just because he was able to get big crowds doesn't mean anything. Remember: Hitler was able to get big crowds too!
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:48 PM
It is interesting to me that both campaigns appear to want people to believe the contest is closer than the conventional wisdom suggests. After puzzling over this a bit (superficial logic would suggest one of the campaigns must be wrong about the strategic implications), it occurred to me the campaigns have different audiences. And while the McCain Campaign would undoubtedly be fine with Obama supporters thinking the contest is over, they need their own supporters to believe it is close, and similarly the Obama Campaign would likely be fine with McCain supporters thinking the contest is over, but they want their own supporters to believe it is close. Accordingly, since each campaign is most likely to be listened to by their own supporters, it makes sense they would converge on the same message.
Notice how boomshak never even mentioned the fact that TIPP jumped from 3 to 5 for Obama yesterday. Not once at all, even though this asshole made such a big deal claiming TIPP was the most accurate poll around.
Likewise he's now touting the Daily Kos poll, a poll he's been trying to dismiss all this time.
"Palin is the VP candidate not the Pres. candidate so her drawing power works perfectly b/c she will basically get the same coverage in the local markets as the Pres.
her draw, however, despite your repeated touting of the same, is an impressive ORDER OF MAGNITUDE lower than Obama's. Not that it matters, of course. I wouldn't have even brought it up, but it seems to be your and boom's talking point d'jour, so I foolishly thought we'd compare apples to apples. You, however moved on from apples to television coverage. See? This is why discussing philosophical subtleties with a zealot is so gosh darn impossible that even I will not venture there.
"Obama didn't draw a 100,000 in ST LOUIS...LOL"
LOL indeed. Talk about rotten timing, eh, Batony?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:49 PM
BTW, I used to live in St Louis. St Louis is VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black. If Obama can't get a big crowd there, he can't get one anywhere.
Go watch it on CNN, you racist dip****. Crowd looks to be about 70% white. As far as over-estimating crowds, that' the repulican mantra.
By the way, most acurate poll from the last election TIPP showed Obama gaining at least 1/2 point every day last week, culminating in a 1.7 point gain on Friday. I saw the Rasmussen and Gallup reps on Fixed News last night. I didn't realize just how partisan those polls are. EVERYONE else says that with record numbers of new voter registrations that the only number that matters is RV.
Obama is finished. McSame is surging everh where.
Obama is crumbling in all fronts.
I think if we all start agreeing with you, you will be redundant here since you are not adding anything useful :)
OBAMA IS FINISHED
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:50 PM
Someone please tell me how this can make any sense.
Obama 50% RV 50% LV Extended
McCain 42% RV 46% LV Extended
How can Obama's support be exactly the same and McCain gains 4%. I would love to here an explanation.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:51 PM
I agree with boomshak...he is the only one on this forum (besides me of course), who is making any sense.
WOW, that really is a HUGE crowd in St.Louis. Say good-bye to MO McCranky.
psst, boom: the horse has left the building.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:52 PM
"Boom: Oh Obama drew 100K in St. Louis...don't worry...they are just blacks".
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:53 PM
we dont need to agree with boom for him to be redundant. he just is
"I agree with boomshak..."
that's really hard to believe
Boomshak you make a good point about St Louis being very black. Charlotte is so black that you can't even see it at night.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:55 PM
"Ok,first of all, ignore the Registered Voters totals."
It would make more sense to ignore not only RV but also LV and focus on state-by-state polls and analyze the so-called McCain's trend
In the past 2 days:
Obama up in all Kerry states + IA
Obama is up VA (Republican state), NC(up but within the MOE so a toss up), NM, CO, NV, (ND is astonishingly a toss up), up in MO (though slightly), FL (which is necessary for a McCain)
IN (toss up), OH (slightly ahead), WV (slightly behind)
Do I miss one?
I know you jump on one of the Gallup poll showing Obama +2, I don't fault you for doing so because you don't have any other choice
FYI: Bush won by 2-3 the popular vote and barely won the EV, which is far different from what's is going on right now
my question is: Knowing you're not that stupid do you really think this Gallup poll mirrors those state polls?
If not, my other question is :
what McCain trend you're talking about sir?
"Just because he was able to get big crowds doesn't mean anything. Remember: Hitler was able to get big crowds too!"
Wow....that's all I can say...wow
Dude, you are a man in denial. If one accepts historical norms, this race is over already. But lets look at it closer re: LV models. Republicans have traditionally been very reliable voters, this year they are fractured and unmotivated so I would expect voter supression due to that. Democrats on the otherhand are HIGHLY motivated, especially the young and have a huge ground game advantage, that with early voting to reduce the voting line hassle and you have makings for a historical shift. I doubt you will see an over confidence issue guven the PURE PLEASURE they will take at voting out Republicans especially the dumb fishwife VP joke Palin.
BTW, she draws good crowds among the stupid who are already in the base. Her rhetoric drives away the independants in droves so good on her for her rallies....every time she opens that dumb mouth she scraes the hell out of all but the dumbest of the base.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:57 PM
BTW Wouldn't the proper polls to be looking at for comparison of any effect of a McCain "surge" related to the debate be the last poll before the debate? Not yesterdays, Gallup?
As I see it...there would be a +2 Obama from THAT ONE!
"Boomshak you make a good point about St Louis being very black. Charlotte is so black that you can't even see it at night."
hey boom, these are the people who agree with you. just your good old run of the mill racists. good for you
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:58 PM
using boomshack's logic we can safely deduce from his posts:
"BTW, I used to live in St Louis. St Louis is VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black"
that boomshack is black. VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY black. Not that it matters. I believe, were boomshack to talk, he would draw a large crowd too. not VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY large. Just large.
Something that hasn't been mentioned here is the fact that Obama keeps on piling endorsements from major newspapers. Two more today from the Denver Post and Miami Herald. Even George Bush was running fairly evenly with Kerry in 2004 in terms of newspaper endorsements but McSame is getting spanked 5-to-1.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:59 PM
"Charlotte is so black that you can't even see it at night."
That is just terrible.
If this is a horse race then Obama must be Secretariat.
While there seems to have been a modest movement in national polls, I haven't seen any in recent polls in battleground states. That suggests that McCain is probably picking back up some disenchanted republicans, mostly in non-battleground states where it won't matter. Obama's strategy is of course very specifically targetted on battleground states. What I find very odd is that McCain is still spending time, effort and money on places that are almost certainly lost causes, like Iowa and Pennsylvania. But then his pollster/strategist was previously with Giuliani, so perhaps it's not so surprising.
That's easy. Like every pollster is saying, Obama is not losing support, McCain is bringing the republican base back with his recent hate-filled rhetoric. That's what the base wanted (see GWB), so now they're warming up to him. Like they said on CNN, McCain only drawing 41-43 percent last week was a clear indication that the republican base had not warmed up to him yet, especially with the She-Bush numbers dropping daily.
So, he's got the base back, but don't look for any state polling to change. It's going to be a riot watching booms home state of NC turn blue on Nov 4.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:00 PM
keep in mind that MILLIONS of repubs registered as dems during Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" and voted for Hillary. Dems are still counting on these people on election day to vote Obama. Me, my wife and several others that I know personally are still registered dems but will be voting for McCain. I wonder if any pollster have consider this to be a factor.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:01 PM
The O+14 CBS News poll and the O+9 LA Times will come off RCP tomorrow or Monday, which will bring Obama's numbers down as well. Those polls were most likely outliers, though. Race is probably 5.5-6 points as of today.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:02 PM
The only thing I agree with you on is that Obama SHOULD be 20% ahead today. McCain and his bimbo have absolutely NOTHING going for them. They have the tragedy of 8 years of absolute failure and virtually NOTHING to say except Ayers????
It is a sad commentary on America that ANYONE would vote for McCain given the above so YES, Obama has failed to sell his message and gain a 20% landslide. We will just have to settle for 4-8% and try to do better in 4 years getting re-elected.
"keep in mind that MILLIONS of repubs registered as dems during Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" and voted for Hillary"
I'd say BILLIONS. Billions and billions. billions and billions of our economy are strong.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:04 PM
I beleive there is a glimmer of hope on the Rep side and just a little Oh no, not again on the Dem side.
This one isn't over yet, boys and girls.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:06 PM
Everyone just a reminder that the beautiful and funny Sarah Palin will grace SNL tonight. She will probably add couple more percentage points to Johnny's surge.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:09 PM
Oh, wow... St. Louis... Here is a demographic lesson for you.
Total population: St. Louis lies at the heart of Greater St. Louis (region in both Missouri and Illinois). The Greater St. Louis area was the 16th largest metro area in the U.S. as of the July 2007 US Census estimate, with more than 2,800,000 people. The city itself is the 52nd largest city by population in the 2000 census and had an estimated population of 353,837 in 2006.
City population breakdown by race--
* Black (51.2%)
* White Non-Hispanic (42.9%)
* Hispanic (2.0%)
* Two or more races (1.9%)
* Vietnamese (1.0%)
* American Indian (0.8%)
* Other race (0.8%)
Males: 164,774 (47.0%)
Females: 185,985 (53.0%)
Median resident age: 33.7 years
Missouri median age: 36.1 years
Percentage of residents living in poverty in 2007: 22.4%
10.7% for White Non-Hispanic residents
32.4% for Black residents
2004 Election results for St. Louis (only strong Democrat (dark blue) county --
So I would say that St. Louis is definitely Democratic haven/heaven. So why not +200,000 to break the Berlin record?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:11 PM
"The only thing I agree with you on is that Obama SHOULD be 20% ahead today"
Much has been said about Obama's real ceiling in a polarized electorate. I will repeat again that should one paint a picture of an elephant on a sack of manure, about 30% of American electorate would follow said sack of manure into the abyss. That is the current dubya approval ceiling. 30% of head in the sand hardcore. McCain gets another few points for being a hero.
The rest is American Racism.
I give you Borat, laguna. Did you see Borat? How long did it take for a car dealer to go from civilized to helping out Sasha Cohen the best vehicle to mow down gypsies? About 3 sentences.
How long did it take for the gun shop owner to help Sasha pick out the best six shooter to best kill the Jews (as protection only at first)? About 3 sentences.
You scratch the surface, and it is REAL ugly underneath. Real ugly. Esp. if money is involved. As a society we have not progressed all that far, unfortunately. I used to be a hell of a lot more polyannish on this issue before too.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:13 PM
kip tin, youre right, the fact that obama didnt get 200,000 people to come to his rally is a huge failure for him.
just curious, at all of those "gigantic" rallies for sarah palin, how many of those were not in traditionally red areas?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:16 PM
State polls seem to lag behind national polls... maybe because most are older than the daily tracking polls... and the state polls usually only "snapshot" one day.
BTW: Not my idea...but rather that of several analysts.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:18 PM
"So I would say that St. Louis is definitely Democratic haven/heaven. So why not +200,000 to break the Berlin record? "
Irrelevant. The statistics sited are nice, but irrelevant. I will repeat: irrelevant. Are we clear on the relevancy? Good.
At issue, once again, was the COMPARISON of today's Palin crowds with Obama. Should I repeat for anyone attempting to nit pik? At issue was COMPARISON between Obama crowds today and Palins. Are we clear on that yet? Good. Point one.
Here is point two:
The issue of crowd size and draw was brought up by BOOMSHACK and BATONY, as some sort of indication of something that only BOOMSHACK and BATONY can explain. Shall I repeat that for you and for the Hitler-loving alankeysisasuperhero? OK, here goes: the ISSUE OF CROWD SIZE WAS BROUGHT UP BY BOOMSHACK and BATONY.
Next topic: how black is black?
Irrelevant, as I said before, but if you bother to look at the links provided, you will see the crowd is mostly white. Not that it matters. The crowd color is a red herring, much like your Berlin insertion. Not a good nit picking day for ya, once again.
have a nice day
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:20 PM
Okey-dokey, folks. Let's take a real look at the EV contest and the states that are up for grabs: It's pretty simple for McCain. He has to win CO, FL, MO, NV, NC, VA, and OH along with the other Bush 04 states besides the goners, IA and NM.
So where's the smart money on these key states? Well, let's see what Intrade says.
CO, Obama 85; McCain 16
FL, Obama 73, McCain 30
MO, Obama 69, McCain 35
NV, Obama 76, McCain 25
NC, Obama 55, McCain 44
OH, Obama 70, McCain 33
VA, Obama 83, McCain 18
Now, being something of a Socialist myself, I don't believe so much in the "Inerrancy of the Free Market", but don't you dedicated Milton Friedman Rebubs have to throw in the towel, according to what the Market is telling you?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:21 PM
Just how racist are we? I am sure there is plenty of research, polls, that sort of thing. I don't think quoting Borat is good science on this.
If Obama thought racism would keep him from winning, don't you think he would have waited a cycle or two?
You know if McCain wins the Dems are going to scream racism at the top of their lungs. We can't vote for McCain because we don't want higher taxes and a redistribution of wealth.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:22 PM
hey kip tin... thanks for answering my question. youve certainly made a great argument.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:26 PM
Stonecreek uhhh do you have a green card?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:29 PM
Speaking of green cards....lets boot all of the illegals, this would be good start to getting the economy back on track.
Obama believes we do not have enough illegal mexicans.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:31 PM
Mike, I was waiting for that, thanks.
IMHO, Borat is a great illustration, not a scientific measure. I never said it was. And it is a great illustration because it offers an unretouched glimpse at how we, Americans, respond to seemingly absurd stances. That's why the film was funny. That's why it even won an award that funny films do not normally win (no, I cannot site it, but if you want, I can google it).
On one hand, Borat showed how amazingly tolerant Americans are of foreigners and their odd traditions. The dinner at the preacher's house scene, etc.
At the same time, the other side is pretty ugly, as I mentioned. There were some scenes that did not make the film: such as big game hunting, more racism, etc. It shows our ugly side without any makeup. IMHO.
Lastly, Alan Keys is in the film patiently explaining to Borat the subtle points of homosexuality and the proper use of a rubber fist. Again, imho, the film is worth it just for that. Eh, alankeysissuperhero?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:32 PM
I am disappointed we haven't heard more on immigration. That could be enough votes to put McCain over the top.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:34 PM
Hey, folks! Gallup is screwed up. They have the number of LV (expanded) at 2263 and the LV (traditional) at 2572, exactly the reverse of what they are supposed to be. Someone at Gallup has made a whopper of a mistake and it's causing us all to Pontificate inaccurately!
big mike, you seem like a very decent person. this is a recent post of southern angler
come on man... please dont humor this guy
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:37 PM
"You know if McCain wins the Dems are going to scream racism at the top of their lungs"
You know, if monkeys start randomly flying out of my butt, racism and what Democrats might be screaming would be the last two things I am going to consider.
While we are on the subject, let think about the ramifications of Ron Paul winning. Or Nader. I hear Bob Barr is polling well in GA.
Whatever would be conclude?
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:38 PM
Fortunatly lots of the illegals here are leaving town due to the econ slow down. I'm sure they will resurface somewhere in the US.
Maybe they are on their way to San Fransico where they are welcomed with open arms.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:39 PM
Nope, I have no Green Card. But I have been called a Card Carrying Communist :)!
Being born, reared, and living in Texas all of my life, I can guarantee you from 40+ years of experience in business and public policy that our economy would implode were it not for the subsidy it receives from alien laborers. If you xenophobes ever succeeded in shutting off this supply of subsidized labor, the current economic "crisis" would look like a case of the hiccups.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:41 PM
I will give you funny, it was that.
Unretouched? We have no idea what was left on the cutting room floor. Might it have been all of the footage that doesn't make us look bad? Who knows.
Take all the shots you want at Alan Keyes. He is not high on any list of mine. Not because he is black. Too inflexible in my book. Remember, I am a fiscal conservative much more than I am a social conservative.
I stand by the statement that if McCain wins, the 10's of millions who vote for him will be called racist. In some circles, they already are. By some of those who post on this very site.
Wow I was just called an xeonphobe, I feel special. Could someone else please call me a racist so I feel complete.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:46 PM
I wasn't condoning all of Anglers statements. But his was the first mention of immigration I have seen in some time. Didn't we all expect, maybe a year ago, that immigration would be one of the big topics in this years elections?
Personally I would like to see the flood slowed down. Commy Stonecreek is right about shutting off the supply of cheap labor. It might have a very interesting discussion. Too bad we will never know.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:48 PM
i agree that its a bit strange how insignificant an issue immigration has been. i think that the economic woes are just too overwhelming at this point. it came right smack dab in the middle of this campaign, and really set the discourse.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:55 PM
Barr, Nader, Paul collectively less than 2% nationally. In a few states they may hit 5%. Not a poll, my own best guess.
More importantly, zero electoral votes for them all.
They may make the race closer in a few states. None come to mind where they might tip it one way or the other. Barr polls best in solid red states while Nader does in solid blue states.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:56 PM
You are absolutely right. The economy is the biggest topic, and there is no close second.
I doubt McCain will overcome his "sound fundamentals" statement and his grandstanding suspend. He could have, but too late now.
He could have defended his "sound fundamentals" much better. Unemployment, inflation, productivity - None of those are anywhere near histioric bad levels. Those are the fundamentals, if I remember my econ correctly. His excuse for the statement was lame.
As for his suspend stunt, he must have **** for advisors. I could have told him to at least not frame it in those words. He could have said he was canceling come appearances, it would be helpful if he and Obama participated and signed off on the eventual outcome. Suspend is what those who lose in the primaries do. Keep their hat in the ring in case the presumptive nominee screws up big time or dies.
McCain has no one to blame but McCain.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:04 PM
But BigMike, we still ought to consider the ramifications of their win. On until recently boomshack favorite in-trade, both Nader and Barr are trading almost within single digits [MOE in boomspeak] of McCain.
Being objective, if one starts considering the potential consequences of McCain presidency, s/he must also consider similarly or nearly likely contingencies. That's all I was saying.
Excuse my typing. I should proofread better before posting. But I think you get the idea.
Gotta run. I need to spend a couple of hours in the office today. The early risers have gone home by now, and I will have the place to myself!
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:08 PM
Have fun with it while you can. I would.
IF your guy wins, governing is even harder.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:11 PM
In case boomshack is still around -> does the Wall Street Journal count as "MSM"?
Because, well, according to this article here http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122435566048047731.html they accept the count of 100,000 people at the Obama rally in St. Louis, too.
FoxNews online doesn't mention this (they don't even mention the city of St. Louis today...), although they seem to quote the same AP ticker news report, just, well, they prefer to stick to McCain branding Obama's tax plan as "socialist".
So much for unbiased reporting...
Posted on October 18, 2008 6:23 PM
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