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US: Obama 49, McCain 42 (Hotline 10/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/26-28,08; 870 LV 3.3.%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 42

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Steady as she goes!

____________________

Trosen:

At this stage, that is an asinine # of undecideds. Do they just leave leaners out? Do they not include FTVs? WTF is up with that?

____________________

Dave:

nate silver did an interesting analysis of undecided voters today over at http://fivethirtyeight.com .... they won't be helping mccain much, it looks like.

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orange24:

I was thinking that same thing, Trosen. Just exactly what are people waiting for? Do they really think they're going to see something in the next six days that they haven't already seen. Make up your mind already - as long as at least 1% of them go for Obama :-)

____________________

Atomique:

I have to wonder how many people who are undecided at this point will have enough enthusiasm about a candidate in six days to bother to go wait in line at the polls.

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RaleighNC:

Don't get nervous about all those undecideds, Obamabots. ;-)

____________________

orange24:

Excellent point, Atomique - hadn't thought of that. I would think you would have to assume at fairly high percentage of them just plain won't go wait in line. Great point.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Here is a boom conspirary theory:

I WONDER IF OBAMA ASKED RAS TO GET THE POLLS CLOSER TO MOTIVATE HIS ORGANIZERS AND VOTERS? I HAVE A TAPE OF THE RECORDING FROM A FRIEND OF MINE, WHO IS SOURCE AT NEWSMAX!!!!!!!!!

____________________

Thatcher:

Trosen & Orange24:

About 1/2 or so of "undecideds" won't vote.

So, if 90% of those decided registered voters do vote (that would be an increase of only 1% from 2004 http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html ) and 50% "undecided" registered voters vote ...

This hotline poll would be:

51.0% Obama
43.8% McCain
5.2% Undecided

So, even if you add all "undecideds" to McCain - still loses.

Same with Rasmussen's tracker today - their 50/47 race becomes:

50.7%
47.6%
1.3%

Again - if you add all "undecideds" to McCain ... still loses.

____________________

sandman:

Interesting.....seems a bit at odds with the conventional wisdom.


THREE GROUPS: Forecasts of voting lag, so far

Record turnout was seen for new voters, young, Hispanics

By MOLLY BALL
REVIEW-JOURNAL

Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.

While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.
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The data provide a glimpse into the composition of the more than 300,000 Nevadans who had taken advantage of early voting over the first nine days of the 14-day period. The information comes from proprietary databases that political action groups purchase from commercial vendors, cross-referenced with the public data the state releases showing who has voted.

Traditionally, older people, whites and people who vote consistently tend to turn out at the highest rates overall, said David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV. But this year, much has been made of the idea that the youth vote, the Hispanic vote and first-time voters would turn out at unprecedented rates, galvanized by a heightened political climate and the candidacy of Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

"I would have expected those numbers to be a little higher," Damore said. "At the same time, the people who come out for early voting may tend to be the tried and true."

The idea that the electorate will be radically reshaped this year remains an open question, he said, and it's possible the Obama campaign faces a challenge turning out the untested voters it's relying on to win.

Recent polling shows Obama leading in the Silver State by varying margins. Democrats' hopes have been boosted by a tectonic shift in voter registration that has left them with more than 110,000 more registered voters than Republicans, but the GOP insists there's hope because the election will be decided by who votes and how.

"What Republicans have been saying is that registration is only half the game, and they have the tried and true model to get people out," Damore said.

____________________

dkfennell:

I've been saying to people that at some point the fact that a person is "undecided" ought to be taken into account in the likely voter model. Really, if a person says they honestly have no inclination 6 days before the vote, how likely are they going to go vote? As John Oliver pointed out, even if they do manage to find the polling place, a large number are likely to crawl into the booth and make a nest for winter.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

People might be slightly overreacting to some movement in Rassmussen - I see one tracker with a bit of an uptick for Obama, one with the exact same numbers, and this one with a tiny change towards McCain. Not exactly armageddon.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@orange24,
All this talk about Ayers, Wright, videotapes, etc that come up for Obama. All of the nasty robocalls and mail outs. It's amazing all of the stuff that the Obama campaign could have seized on with respect to McCain and Palin yet with all of the attacks thrown their way, they refuse to stoop down to that level and instead stick to the issues.

____________________

BUS:

The polling narrative of the day is going to be dominated by Obama opnening up big leads in important states. Contra Drudge, no one gives a good God damn about a couple of points here or there on national trackers.

Plus when Obama is racking up stories like these, we know he's in a good place:

"In the urban counties, which represents about 85 percent of the vote, the Democrats could well have close to a 100,000-voter lead over the GOP by the close of early voting Friday. Unless the independents (16 percent in turnout so far) are overwhelmingly going for John McCain, which seems unlikely, Barack Obama has a chance to win Clark and Washoe by enough votes to win the state, unless the GOP Election Day turnout so overwhelms the Ds as to make up the difference -- an almost impossible task."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_daily_ralston_gop_faces_al.php

____________________

NYCREALAMERICAN:

Today's polls:
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Washington Strategic Vision (R) Obama 54, McCain 42 Obama +12

5 days to go....

____________________

Dan:

Dems have always led in voter registration, but reps have ad better voter turnout. Truth is many of the new voters just don't care as much. Not to mention, many dems switch over to reps as they age and never swith their registration. Actual votes matter.

____________________

DTM:

For various reasons I think one of the biggest questions of the election is what sort of turnout we ultimately see among weakly-enthusiastic McCain supporters and McCain-leaning undecideds. In fact, it seems to me the polls favoring more "traditional" likely voter models and party weightings are at least as dependent on those people showing up (as much as they did in 2004) as those polls are on new but enthusiastic Obama voters not showing up.

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bpd1069:

Movement in the national polls mean nothing in this election, its all down to the battleground states.

The exception being a flip from who is leading, and that hasn't happened in well over a month when the Economy was vaulted into the #1 Issue for the electorate.

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mirrorball:

fivethirtyeight has an interesting report on voter turnout in Oregon, the gist being turnout is down 19% compared to the same period in 2004, particularly in red areas of the state. But that may be in part because of the Senate race, and election officials say that as voters are turning in their ballots later and later each year as they familiarize themselves with the mail-in process.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-oregon-turnout-is-down-but.html

____________________

jlm9:

Ed Rollins on CNN this morning discussed the fact that there might be as many as 2% of voters who claim to be undecided but actually just want to make sure they vote for the 'winner' on election day. You would suspect that if this is true then they will break for Obama

____________________

mrzookie:

(sorry for the cross-post, caught the end of the last thread)

The discrepency between national and state polls is not as off as some think. If you compare polls released this week to previous ones done within the past 2-3 weeks by same pollster, there is a small, but perceptible, movement towards local tightening:

(all numbers old/new diff, +/- Obama unless noted)

Rasmussen (or Fx/Ras, but not mixed):
OH M+2/O+4 +6
VA 3/4 +1 (note: from Fx/Ras 10/4 -6)
FL M+1/O+4 +5
NC O+3/M+1 -4
MO 5/1 -4
NV 5/4 -1
CO 5/1 -1
PA 13/7 -6
WI 10/7 -3

Quinnipiac
OH 14/9 -5
FL 5/2 -3
PA 15/12 -3

SUSA
OH 5/4 -1
MO 8/Tie -8
WA 16/17 +1

I sure as hell hope, and still expect, to wake up to President Obama on 11/5, but to ignore that it's tightening locally is hiding one's head in the sand.

Eye on the ball. Kerry + IA+CO+VA and hopefully OH (no idea what's going on in NM)

____________________

webim:

Guys ..
Look at the intrad market .
Real surge for maccain :-(
Time to make money by buying some obama (85)

Do you think that they already have the gallup number .

Jump from 12 to 14.5 in one day for maccain .

____________________

NW Patrick:

Obama: "Bythe end of the week, he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten."

I LOVE IT!

____________________

Trosen:

Obama's GOTV campaign for election day is massive. There are 2 headquarters within walking distance of me and I'm not even in a massively populated area.

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swamib:

it's only 6% undecided. and the party breakdown is 41-36-18 very republican heavy. a good sign after that rasmussen scare. With the Penn. polls, it looks like this is over

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OGLiberal:

@jlm9

I don't doubt that what Ed Rollins said is, in fact, true. But how sad is that? With two candidates/parties so far apart on the issues, people are going to decide who they are voting for based on who they perceive is going to win on election day? That's a pretty sad commentary on these undecided voters.

____________________

NW Patrick:

webim you are kidding right with your ":("

Obama 85 a share McCain 14? LOL WOW SURGE!

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Here's a couple of questions for all the "Real American" "Whack Jobs":

HOW COULD SARAH PALIN BECOME AN ENERGY EXPERT IN 30 MONTHS?

AND,

SHOULDN'T YOU BELIEVE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS MAN MADE IF YOU ARE AN ENERGY EXPERT?

Just a few questions.

____________________

mago:

wrt Intrade...

Recall that Intrade has already been the victim of massive artificial manipulation, in which some joker was blowing tens of thousands of dollars to prop up McCain's share.

Don't use Intrade as a neutral guide.

____________________

rami:

Steady.

There*is*no*surge.

____________________

rami:

Steady.

There*is*no*surge.

____________________

AlanSnipes:

Let us not do what right wingers do with poll results that they don't like. They can't be right because of their own anecdotal stories.
We have to look at all the polls and average them to predict the result. Of course, there are questions about what the actual make up of the electorate will be, but we won't know that answer for shure until the votes are counted.
In the meantime, we must work, work , work, to insure the defeat of ALL Republicans, whether for local or national office.
I believe based on the tracking polls that the race has tightened slightly nationally, but that the individual state results look very good for Senator Obama. Only six days to go.

____________________

Pat:

I suspect that Gallup will show a tighter race today not because of any trend but rather it is Wednesday. Quite often Gallup tightens on Wednesdays. It will be interesting to see all polls by this weekend.

____________________

laguna_b:

If the last week is the same as the past 8 weeks, there was no movement possible that could change this race. The only movement that came close was the McCain surge post convention (no similar event planned), and Obama's once the euphoria wore off....stability has marked the race for 30 days, some reasonable % of votes already cast and locked in place, with strong implications for Obama.

NONETHELESS....we can't let it be stolen from us again and need 3X overkill to be sure!

____________________

laguna_b:

Without Pennsylvania what hope is there?
A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Barack Obama way ahead of Sen. John McCain, 53% to 40%, among likely voters.

"Obama holds a sizable lead among younger residents, non-whites, college graduates, women, and residents of Philadelphia and Allegheny County. His advantage among these groups has mostly increased since September."

....for Mccain that is ;)

____________________

wotan:

Not all of the undecideds are undecide. Figure 2% Nader, 1% Barr and that leaves 6% undecided, of which maybe another 1-2% won't vote. That would leave 4-5% undecided. Maybe they are waiting to see tonight's TV appearance.

____________________

JC:

I am a democrat and Hillary strong supporter.

I am one of the undecided voters.

I like McCain, he is experienced and not typical Republican. But on the other hand, I feel I should support my own party after 8 year Bush administration.

Party or candidate?

I think the time I can make a decision is when I walk in the booth.

It is so hard this year!!! If we had Hillary not Joe, it would be much easier.


JC

____________________

webim:

And what about sarah Palin (Mc cain has 72à
Please JC , think twice ...


I am a democrat and Hillary strong supporter.

I am one of the undecided voters.

I like McCain, he is experienced and not typical Republican. But on the other hand, I feel I should support my own party after 8 year Bush administration.

Party or candidate?

I think the time I can make a decision is when I walk in the booth.

It is so hard this year!!! If we had Hillary not Joe, it would be much easier.


JC

____________________

sunnymi:

It looks like Rasmussen is cooking his numbers at least for the last couple of days to show the margin to be smaller than it really is....

Is Rasmussen Cooking Its Tracking Poll Topline?

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9479

By the same token numbers for today's internals were:
Obama 85% Dem; 11% Rep; 50% Ind
McCain 13% Dem; 87% Rep; 45% Ind

This should have given a 51-46 not 50-47 as reported.

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

Any signifigant tightening at the state level will be detected by state polls that come out this weekend. It was indicated that the Obama was +5 with Independent voters, but he had lost some soft support from Dems, hopefully the infomercial will bring them back home.

____________________

NW Patrick:

JC I voted for Hillary in the primary. I am 1000% for Obama. Don't be stupid. The fundamental problem with our economy and the growing national debt is the Republican system of trickle down economics. How do we pay for this massive increase in spending by yet another Republican administration? By lowering taxes yet again for the top 1% of income earners? Seems you would have learned your lesson after 8 years, especially with the proof of our plan working after 8 years of Clinton.

You're simply SILLY.

____________________

truebljb1:

IBD Obama 46.9 McCain 43.9

Obama minus .8 (thats 2.4 points worse than the day that fell off)

McCain plus .2

It will be interesting to see what Gallup does.

Also @ sunnymi. I am a premium member at Rasmussen. The reason you might think that is those numbers are rounded so it could be a little different than that.

____________________

DTM:

@JC

One possible tiebreaker is to look at whose positions on issues you think are better. To somewhat oversimplify, there have been very few issues on which Bush and McCain have disagreed, and even in most of those cases McCain has since moved closer to Bush. So, what you feel about Bush's policies, or at least the results of those policies, should tell you a lot about what you might feel about McCain's policies.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Interesting fact in OR. Although early voting doesn't mean as much as National since we are a MAIL ONLY state, red counties are down 26% in OR this year for early voters. Could this be a sign the GOP is demoralized?

____________________

truebljb1:

It is my oppion that the key to this election is for McCain to get more repubs than Obama does Dems. You are starting to see that happen in the internals of these polls. I think McCain will end up winning (probably not by a lot) the independents by a small margins when undecideds make their decesion, but to make up for the gap he has because of there being more dems than repubs I think McCain will have to get atleast 5% more republicans that Barack democrats to have a shot. That is what we are begining to see when you look closely at these numbers. McCain appoaching 90% of repubs and Barack drifiting back towards about 85% of dems. Not saying that will hole, but that is what is happening now and that will be the key to McCain having any shot at all. If he does not do that, there is no way he can makeup the gapy in independents.

____________________

straight talk:

I am telling you folks this is not a 3 point race! McCain is down by at least 7+! There is something going on! Electorally Obama is sitting even better than were Bill Clinton was state polling wise, but Bill won by at least 9+. I wonder why tracking pollsters would do this?

____________________

maddiekat:

Another PA Poll, this one by Marist O 55 McLiar 41

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

EVERYONE:

The only anxiety I have results from my lack of faith in the turnout of Latinos, African Americans, and folks under the age of 30. They've never failed to disappoint me before. On top of that I'm eastern European and a Cubs fan. Need I say more? Obama fans -- vote! Early! Often!

____________________

zotz:

Obama: "By the end of the week, he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten."

CLASSIC!

____________________

OGLiberal:

@JC

Hillary and Obama, for the most part, agree on most of the issues. Hillary and Obama disagree with McCain on most of the issues. Hillary and Obama share a vision of this country that is drastically different than the one held by McCain/Palin. If you were and remain a strong Hillary supporter, your choice should be simple and you shouldn't have to wait until you enter the booth to make up your mind.

Just my two cents.

____________________

Jacob S:

My brother is going to volunteer in SE PA from now until the election. McCain will be running a huge deficit out of the Philadelphia area.

For Obama supporters, I would not be too concerned about fluctuations on Intrade. I think that a lot of people who longed Obama when he was around 50 are now simply cashing in--just in case something catastrophic did happen in the next few days.

____________________

Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

sunnymi:

That rasmussen poll does not look right...after looking at the internals and the top line...I rounded EVERY demographic percentage down for obama and rounded every one for McCain up one point...for example if the democrats weight was 39.9, i used 39.0

still I got obama ahead in rasmussen 5.16, not 3...and around 7 when I used their listed weightings...

rasmussen has to explain this

____________________

Pat:

@webim:

I am convinced that if Obama is elected, four years from now he will not run with Joe. Joe will be kind of old and won't be able to take over after 8 years of Obama Presidency. I suspect that in 2012 there will be a strong chance that Obama will run with Hillary so she can take over by 2016. It also makes sense if Palin is still around and running as the head of the GOP ticket.

Vote democrat. You will be much better off.

____________________

Pat:

@webim:

sorry my post was for JC.

@JC

I am convinced that if Obama is elected, four years from now he will not run with Joe. Joe will be kind of old and won't be able to take over after 8 years of Obama Presidency. I suspect that in 2012 there will be a strong chance that Obama will run with Hillary so she can take over by 2016. It also makes sense if Palin is still around and running as the head of the GOP ticket.

Vote democrat. You will be much better off.


____________________

zotz:

maddiekat-
SEVEN different PA polls since yesterday. The best McCain can come up with is Rasmussen's Obama +7. The rest are +9 to +14. Where is the GREAT WHITE HOPE in Pensylvannia?

____________________

pbcrunch:

Any tightening I think has to do with the fact that Obama has clearly shifted to the GOTV operation while McCain's strategy and tactics are operating like it's still late September or early October, opening up new lines of attack against Obama in the hope one would stick and create a new campaign narrative. In case anybody has lived under a rock for the past week, the new one is: Obama is a socialist.

GOTV is expensive and requires the full-bore efforts of the candidate, the senior advisers and local surrogates. Obama's efforts seem to be paying off; historically, Republicans dominate early voting (Bush won 60% of the early votes in 2004), while this year, Obama has taken a clear lead in nearly all of the early voting polls.

____________________

zotz:

Sorry I spelled the state wrong. I'll try again
PENNSYLVANIA

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

The GOP and Conservative electioneering have been pretty much in line with their past tendency to dwell in the slime.
They justify it in their own brains by imputing equivalence to Democrat and liberal shenanigans. If Dems and Libs were to act like their opponents, there would be ads out there asking why Palin has not publicly rebuked her church's position that Jews bring on their own misery for not embracing Christ.

There would be ads making the link between McCain's long-time hot-dogging as a pilot which cost him at least several crashes of multi-million dollar figher planes, and that many of his co-fighter pilots believe his erratic and impetuous behavior is what got him shot down in Vietnam, notwithstanding his heroic period. There would be ads suggesting he was hot and heavy with Charles Keating, reminding folks of how many people lost their savings due to the savings and loan meltdown. There would be tapes shown of McCain having several of his well-known, documented meltdowns and hissy-fits, coordinated with the campaign to demonstrate how erratic and unpredictable he is.

There has been nothing close to that by "our side." Conservatives and Republicans have always justified going nuclear in their campaigns by referring to some infinitely smaller slight inflicted by their opponents. From the time they were hoisted on their petards by Roosevelt, the GOP and its allies and its base have savaged their opponents. Their legacy goes from the horrific attacks on Eleanor Roosevelt, McCarthyism, to Watergate, to Bush v. Gore, and so on.

For me, though, the most disgusting thing of all has been McCain's embrace of not only the tactics, but the people, who took him apart by the foulest of means in 2000. As I've asked myself before, what kind of a person does that? How could he hire the very people who spread lies about his adopted daughter and his wife and about McCain's drinking and alleged mental stability? Who does such a thing?

____________________

Dan:

Shannon,

I do not know if Palin is now or ever was an energy expert, but she is gov. of the largest oil producing state, so she better know something about energy.
Secondly, the idea that global warming is man made is rapidly losing any validity it ever had in the scientific community. The proof that was supposedly coming never materialized, and the evidence points to the contrary. My favorite is environemtnal groups and scientific experts claiming "global warming" is causing the recent cooling. If that is truly the case, then we have nothing to worry about.

____________________

maddiekat:

Dan

Did Rush convince you of this?

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

sorry if it's already been mentioned but it seems like the only difference in the different national trackers is how hard they're pushing undecideds. Despite history, I think most undecides will go for McCain since his support is softer and they are probably Bush people McCain 'lost' anyway. If they we're pushed, I'd say we'd see everyone come in at Obama +4 with only 1-2% undecided.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Great artical on the HUGE shift in the Catholic vote to Obama.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-rutten29-2008oct29,0,6174226.column

____________________

[nemesis]:

I have a theory. I don't know how plausible it is, but what if a lot of people who have already voted are just hanging up on pollsters. They might figure, "Hey, I've already voted, so it doesn't matter." Say 25% of already-voteds don't bother with the polls, what kind of difference would that make, considering the early voting numbers so skewed to Obama. Honest question.

____________________

ctj:

2 new Marist polls have just been released-

PA O-55 M-41
OH O-48 M-45

I am still waiting for the big McCain surge in PA? Great Strategy McCain handlers!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Dan

You are ignorant or merely indulging in cheap debating tactics. The National Academy of Sciences has never indicated that climate change is solely due to man's conduct. The question is how much is contributed by man and how rapidly is the process being accelerated by man's carbon footprint. Most important, the scientific community has notably dropped the "global warming" moniker, since it's climate change that is the issue. Weather models have long suggested that as the planet warms, on average/overall, that precise effects might involve warming and cooling depending on where we are. For example, there might be cooling if the Gulf Current is cooled by the melting of Antarctic ice. There is more, but I do tend to spend too much time with people who are immune to facts and are more interested in scoring partisan points.

____________________

AlanSnipes:

Boris:

I am a White Sox fan and Hillary supporter. I NEVER considered doing anything other than supporting Senator Obama since he won the nomination. Cub fans are either McCain or Bush supporters. They booed Hillary in 1993.
White Sox fans are loyal Democrats!

____________________

MaxMBJ:

JC:

I read your anguish about who to vote for. It is tough after your guy/gal has been defeated in the primary (for you, Hillary) to simply accept the one who won. I anguished after my guy, Rudy Guiliani, got obliterated in the primaries.

So I feel your pain.

Unfortunately, Obama supporters don't do that. They call you "stupid" and "SILLY." That's how they think of anyone who doesn't drink the Kool-aid with them.

I'd encourage you to check out Hillbuzz.wordpress.com to see what other jilted Hillary supporters are doing.

____________________

maddiekat:

Rasmussen cooked his books last night and then released it to Drudge. By any measure it should have read 51-46

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ NW Patrick
You're welcome, I'm doing my 1/40,000,000th part. We always vote a winner; unfortunately, I don't individually have the same track record. Here's wishing for this one!

____________________

colivigan:

@JC:

Although I agree that the issues are important, for me this election is more about the individual candidates. Forget all that "experience" business (Dick Cheney has experience). Who do your really want leading the country?

Jane Smiley had a great article over at HuffPost. Here's an excerpt:

If we look at our two candidates, the differences between them are stark. John McCain, who was raised by and accepts the authoritarian model, is evidently never at peace. He is hot-headed, erratic, and has been remarkably cruel. He claims to have principles, but his principles change every time he loses his cool. The more he is pushed, the more it becomes evident that he lives by his own selfish desires -- for money, for power, for women. He's is a classic avoider, who can't even answer the simplest question -- if something "unpleasant" comes up, he changes the subject. Barack Obama rarely changes the subject, because he is fully capable of looking at an issue and considering it. He seems to have been reared in a non-authoritarian household, by a loving mother and loving grandparents. He thinks that the world is a rational place that can be understood and modified. His own family seems happy and loving. Right wingers think he is shallow, but he isn't shallow -- he's well-adjusted. And we've had two whole years to poke him and prod him and discover this. Obama has grown through campaigning because he has learned from it. McCain gets ever smaller and more weird as he campaigns because he doesn't understand what is happening to him.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat,

Let's look at the McCain path to 270:

If he wins all the Pollster.com dark red states, he will accrue 123 Electoral College votes. Add in the pink states and he is up to 142 EC votes. Add in all the yellow states and he is at 227.

Now we get into Obama states.

If McCain wins all those that Pollster.com has colored light blue, he is up to 266. But he needs more than that to win. In fact, he needs 270 or more Electoral College votes to win, as a 269-269 EC vote goes to the House, and only the delusional think the House would vote for a McCain win. And if it's 269-269, is there ANYONE who thinks the Senate as a whole would vote for Palin as Vice-President?

With 270 EC Votes needed to win the Presidency, that means that McCain needs one of the dark blue states (at least an 8 point Pollster.com lead) that has more than 3 EC votes.

Which one will it be if he is to win? Which of the above states will he NOT win? Will that loss mean he needs even more EC votes from the dark blue states than the one that he already needs?

Does he even have a reasonable chance of winning 266 EC votes, how and why?

Instead of all the BS you usually spew out here, how about being an adult, and tell us what path McCain has to go to win 270 EC votes?

____________________

MaxMBJ:

So you're saying Rasmussen is a cheater and a liar. That seems to be consistent with the attacks on the left. Love someone until they say one wrong thing about their guy and then ... poof! To Siberia he goes.

____________________

redmalamute:

@NW Patrick

Please don't call someone silly. That is counter-productive and as bad as the GOP supporters.

# JC
I know a lot of Hillary supporters (including myself) who were luke warm Obama supporters. I have gotten increasing supportive as I have heard him speak and McCain collapse. Don't forget that Hillary (and Bill) are supporting Obama because they understand the need for a DEM victor after 8 years in the "wilderness". The DEM party is really "dead" if it can't win this election (after 8 years of Bush) and an economy in the tanks. In other words, if we can't win under these conditions, when can we ever win. The Supreme Court will be lost for 30+ years if McCain appoints even 1 new judge and he will have a good chance of appointing at least 3. The oldest and most likely to retire are the 3 liberals, which will forever change the bench for the worse, not just on pro-choice issues but enviroment, regulations etc. I speak on this as an attorney. Also, I could not stand the fact that Palin would be the first VP. I am pro women, but not pro any women. I would like the first women president/VP to be like Maggie Thatcher -- not Palin.

____________________

DenverBuckeye:

It seems to me that Tweety is (for once) right in his belief that Obama does better with perception/polling when he's had a chance to display his intellect/calm in front of a large percentage of television viewers.

If you look at the RCP tracker, you can see some movement up after each debate then a slow drawback thereafter until the next instance of mass public consumption.

Looking at these trends, it seems logical to say that the same upswing might be seen over the next couple of days following Obama's 30 minute ad buy tonight - in as long as the message and production is handled well.

____________________

straight talk:

McCain better put together a massive GoTV effort or he is toast! Absentee ballots can only take you so far! He better have his people in place! Because the GOTV effort will decide who wins the election! And right now we can spin all day, but McCAIN is not even close to the early voting # Bush put up!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Obama's in Raleigh right now. I'm on the road without access to TV. Can anyone tell me if there's a tall dude trying to get near the stage to ask Obama a couple of "devastating" questions that will end Obama's political career?

That would be boomshak.

____________________

Dan:

Boris,

How fiting that you engage in name-calling just because someone challenges your ill-conceived belief. There is nothing partisan about the Earth's climate, only those politician's who wish to profit off scare tactis (we all now them). If you cannot state your position and back it up, then I suggest you keep quiet, lest you expose yourself for a fool. I will debate you any time anywhere, with facts, not models or theory.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Concerning the Hillary/McCain thing please note: Hillary has a framed picture of McCain in her office. McCain has a framed picture of Hillary in his office.

My guess: Obama has a framed picture of himself in his office.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

Pre-Gallup poll question. In Gallup's traditional Likely Voter model that looks at whether you voted before, what the heck do they do with 18-20 and 20-22 yr olds (no prior national voting history, and no prior presidential voting history, respectively)?

____________________

[nemesis]:

"I have a theory. I don't know how plausible it is, but what if a lot of people who have already voted are just hanging up on pollsters. They might figure, "Hey, I've already voted, so it doesn't matter." Say 25% of already-voteds don't bother with the polls, what kind of difference would that make, considering the early voting numbers so skewed to Obama. Honest question."

ANYBODY???

____________________

ctj:

WATCH OUT MCCAIN IS SURGING IN PA!!! This is made clear by 4 new polls released today-

Marist- 55-41 Obama
Quinnipiac- 53-41 Obama
Associated Press 52-40 Obama
Franklin and Marshall- 53-40 Obama

I guess Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis are banking on the fact that Philadelphia will secede to New Jersey before election day?

____________________

laguna_b:

@Napoleon
"Can anyone tell me if there's a tall dude trying to get near the stage to ask Obama a couple of "devastating" questions that will end Obama's political career?

That would be boomshak. "

That was the funniest thing I have seen in weeks! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

no change in gallup LV expanded (O+7). Now a O+3 in LV traditional (M-1)

hopefully some people can chill out now.

Anyone have an answer to my above question?

____________________

cambridge blue:

Gallup LV Trad -1 McCain.

OBAMA SURRRRRRRRGEEEEAAA!!!!1

____________________

chgo1:

Alan:

I have to take issue with your baseball/political characterizations...I am a Cubs fan and would be more likely to stick a sharp pencil in my eye than vote for Bush or McWar!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@angrytoxicologist

Gallup's "expanded" model includes weights for assumptions that cell phones and young people might be voting at slightly higher rates. Quite frankly, I am skeptical about "young" folks. They've been singularly MIA in virtually every important election I've ever been involved. The ONLY difference this time is the elaborate and, hopefully, effective ground game that Obama's set up. Gallup's traditional model is likely to be closest to the actual national outcome. I am not at all alarmed by the "tightening" natioinally. The state level, electoral college map is virtually identical to what it was a few days ago, which is a big electoral college win for Obama, although not an overwhelming one.

____________________

Trosen:

Aww.. McCain lost a point in the trolls' precious 2004 voter model. If we could only roll back the clock to when only 1/2 the population despised Bush and the GOP and erased the millions of new Deomcratic voters, McCain might only lose by 30 or so electoral votes.. Too bad.. so sad.

____________________

straight talk:

Obama supporters are those most anxious people I know! OBAMA TOLD YOU THAT THIS WOULD BE A FIGHT! But yet he is cool as ice! This guy is great under pressure! But man his supporters are freakin out because of one poll! While Zogby went up a 1, and Gallup basically is not moving! The McCain supporters are fired up, but cannot explain there candidates reason for trying to flip Pennsylvania!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Dan

Hey, just read the National Academy of Sciences report, although I don't think you'll be able to understand it, since you are an idiot. STFU and go back under your conservative rock. Don't take my word for it, and yes I am calling you the name that fits. Jerk.

____________________

truebljb1:

It is the Obama top numbers in ALL polls that matter, for a number of reasons discussed by a lot of peopld on this board and elsewhere. He is trending back below 50%. It will be interesting to see what happens with tomorrows polls.

____________________

[nemesis]:

DOW up 50 points, McCain SURGE!!!!

HAHA

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@truebljb1

What ain't changing nowhere, nohow are the state results. Nothing there has budged. Nixon won in 1968 with over 400 electoral college votes, despite having a national margin that was extremely small. As an Obama fan, I am nervous, but irrationally so, not because there are any real facts on the ground to worry me. The fact that margins for McCain are better in red states and slightly better in irretrievable blue states (Pa for example) means nothing. I hope the national margin comes down to a .00001 win for Obama and an electoral college victory -- anything to have the GOP second-guessing themselves and self-destructing for about a year before they calm down would be great. And bring on the Sow with Lipstick for 2012!

____________________

laguna_b:

@truebljb1

Sorry, but I don't see a lot of movement there albeit some movement. When the lead goes from huge to large with 6 days left after 30 days of stability, that isn't a sign of reversal in my book....remember also that a big % have voted and their votes don't change.

____________________

DTM:

@nemesis

I've been thinking about that as well. We already know that Obama supporters tend to be tougher to poll for various reasons (the cell phone effect and apparently the need for more callbacks). If you add into that the fact that Obama voters appears to be voting early a bit more often, you could imagine it being increasingly harder to get them to respond to a poll for that reason as well, and even a compounding effect. And all that would likely show up most strongly in the daily trackers.

So at a minimum, I would like to see more non-tracker national polls, preferably ones with lots of callbacks, and even more preferably ones contacting cell phones, to see if there is a growing methodological discrepancy as early voting is ongoing.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@EVERYONE

At this stage, the only "movement" that matters is movement within particular states. The great proportion of national movement in the polls is due to "movement" in states that don't matter. McCain has closed a bit in Pa, but not nearly enough to make it a close race there. The other main source of "movement" has been that red states like Tennessee, Texas, blah blah have gotten redder.

I'm as nervous as the next Obama supporter, but that's good, since it hopefully means there will be less complacency.

Get out and vote early and oftener!

____________________

ctj:

True,

Not to correct you, but you are wrong about 1968.

Nixon- 301
Humphrey- 191
Wallace- 46

Keep the faith!

____________________

laguna_b:

Imagine the task for pollsters doing exit polls! There is sure to be a McCain bias there just because all the indications are that Obama people voted early....how will they be able to make sense of exit polls???? If they are 50/50 or better Mccain is toasted.

____________________

DTM:

As for Obama's individual number, we are once again in a period where the national trackers are both dominating the recent polls on the national charts and showing a slight tightening. This happened the weekend before last as well, and had the same effect on the trends as measured by things like the poll averages at RCP or the regression chart here at Pollster.

To deal with this problem of a changing poll mix last time, I tried turning down the sensitivity on Pollster's national chart, which basically serves to smooth out this effect a bit. What I got when I did that last time was still McCain in a slight upward trend, but Obama leveling off instead of going down.

So I just tried repeating that approach, and the exact same thing happened--the tightening from both ends on the default chart turned into just a leveling on Obama's end with a slight increase on McCain's end. Of course that doesn't decide the issue, but it is more than enough for me to want to wait once again for the trackers to stop dominating the recent poll mix before drawing any broader conclusions about the national trend.

____________________

ctj:

Sorry I meant Borris

____________________

Dan:

Boris,

Try reading Richard Lindzen from M.I.T., Richard Petschaure from IEEE, Laurence Gould of the American Physical Society, Vincent Gray from the NOAA, Roy Spencer from NASA, John Christy from U.A.-Huntsville, or Hans Svensmark from the Danish National Space Center to name a few. I know these scientific articles are not easily understood, but you might want to give them a try. There are less biased than government run agencies and contact much for factual data. But it seems you are still resorting to name-calling and if you prefer to cover your ears and sing loudly whenever someone can refute your beliefs, go ahead. It will catch up to you someday.

____________________

laguna_b:

@dan

Science is an evolving thing with opinions changing and moving towards the truth with time. TO say that acceptance of climate change being man induced is accepted theory by all would be untrue. However it appears that the vast majority accept it at this point. There will always be dissent, it is the predominance of opinion that makes it compelling.
The consequences of ignoring it if it is correct are horrendous. I am not willing to take that risk. The consequences of carbon reduction are not catastrophic and will come anyway with the depletion of that supply. All we are doing is speeding up the process to move to SUSTAINABLE and RENEWABLE energy....with is inevitable given the current unsustanable model. Climat e change just adds to the urgency.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Dan

Yes, these are in some cases dissenting scientists, but not necessarily with regard to global warming or man's activities contributing to it. If your point is that we don't know enough to engage in radical policies that might not be beneficial, that is a reasonable point. For example, in the case of Petschaure's work that carbon is not as great a factor as people believe, perhaps no more than one percent, we might be barking up the wrong tree. If your point is that there aren't going to be dire effects from climate change -- man-made or not -- then you are completely wrong, and virtually no scientist would argue that. But the bottom line is that it is respectable to dissent from the majority view and there are respectable scientists who do. For you to have STARTED the name-calling by referring to the politicians who've advocated around this issue is for the pot to call the kettle black. You are one of those freaks who believe that liberals are gloming on to this issue for the sake of imposing "big government" on folks. The other main fact is that, notwithstanding the relatively few and respectable dissents, the OVERWHELMING evidence and the vast majority of climate change scholars and researchers attribute a significant role for man-made activities in climate change. As to what the consequences of such change might be, that is much less clear. It would be totally fair for someone to say that without more certainty about the effects, drastic policies are not yet justified. In fact, I'm sympathetic to that. Polite enough for you?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@ctj

OOPs, I hit the wrong button. Yes, it was over 300 electoral votes, with Wallace running. And, Nixon's margin nationally was, I believe around 1.5%

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Dan,

And for you to suggest that the National Academy is somehow to be impugned because it is a government entity, reflects your bias. The scientists who participate are among the world's best, whose reputations are beyond dispute. Their recommendations have never been affected by ideology or political agenda or by outside commercial interests. I would far more believe their recommendations than those produced by the oil companies. By the way, the scientists you recommend are engaged in labs supported by government. You are a conservative operative or operative wannabe. Go get a job at the GOP National Committee. That's where you belong.

____________________

Dan:

Boris and laguna,

Thank you for a more civilized response. The OVERWHELMING evidence does not exists, however, the OVERWHELMING opinion does. The theorists are syill waiting for confirmation of their theory by scientific research. Even James Hansen admits that he was overly-zealous in his claims, and has down-played the consequences. If we knew that the results would be catastrophic then we should push hard for changes. If the consequences are uncertain, and the costs of action are burdensome, then we should wait for confirmation. We don't want another acid-rain fiasco. One of my complaints against McCain is his push for cap and trade legislation. I agred we should push for renewable energy, but mostly because of the oil shortage.

____________________

Brian:

Don't believe the State polls.

Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are tightening in the battleground states.”

Says urgent GOTV needs have been yet to be met.

http://bourbonroom.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/29/obama-memo-race-is-tightening-in-battleground-states/

____________________

Dalia:

folks,
Rush Limbaugh, (I hope I spelt the name right) thinks that McCain will win by at least 30 points. Let's vote early folks and while Rush is waiting, we will be celebrating victory. We cannot afford to have the crappy Retardlicans in power for another 4. The US just doesn't have the resources to keep those Retards there to plunder and exploit for another 4. I wish we had a surplus we would have room to negotiate. This is do or die. There is just no room for complacency. If you give them a chance, they will lie themselves into the White House again and this time you will have nothing to leave for your kids. Be careful folks!!

____________________

Basil:

What are the odds that spewing gigatons of fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere just happens to be the right thing to do?

How about ocean acidification? Good luck to us when calcium carbonate shells dissolve in seawater. Even if we can tolerate an altered climate, a dead ocean spells doom.

Green revolution now.

____________________

Dan:

Dalia,

He must've meant 30 votes. Which will only happen if significant numbers of Obama supporter stay home next Tuesday thinking this race is over. The only other way is to somehow convince the marginal Obama supporters that he is trouble. Thus far, I would say that this campaign has been cleaner than previous ones (it has the usual exaggerations and innuendos, but the mud is lighter this year). Beware of some 11th hour nastiness that could not be cleared up before the 5th.

____________________

KMartDad08:

McCainiacs, enjoy today and maybe tomorrow, because after that, the numbers ALL go Obama's way. He will dominate the news cycles over the next 60 hours, and no one will be paying attention to the campaign over the weekend, except those people who see the commercials, and in the states that matter, they'll be seeing 2 commercials for every one of McCain. The new Obama commercial featuring Sarah Palin hits the exact right tone.

____________________

boomshak:

THIS POLL HAS SOME INTERNALS THAT JUST DON'T ADD UP:

For instance, they say that McCain and Obama are TIED amongst WHITE WOMEN, but Obama LEADS by 16 points amongst ALL WOMEN.

Huh?

Since WHITE WOMEN make up over 80%+ of ALL WOMEN, how can it be tied with 80%+ but 16 down with 100%? I just can't do the math there.

____________________

boomshak:

Brian:

Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are tightening in the battleground states.”

I have been telling you moonbats for a week now. I have a friend who has a friend inside the Obama Campaign and the battleground internal polls are MUCH closer than the public polls would lead you to believe.

No one believed me, but here is the confirmation from the horse's mouth.

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA SPOKESMAN - IT'S REAL REAL REAL CLOSE.

"In a phone interview with FOX News, Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are tightening in the battleground states.”
FOX News obtained a copy of a memo Hildebrand sent to long-standing Democratic operatives on Tuesday.

The memo, shown below, reveals the extensive get-out-the-vote efforts Obama’s team has underway and “urgent” needs that have yet to be met.

Hildebrand told FOX News he sent the memo out to boost efforts in Florida but that similar memos were also sent out seeking help in North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio. He said needs were less acute in Pennsylvania.

Hildebrand said the campaign disregards current state polls showing Obama ahead.

“They were not always a good indicator in the primaries so we’re working hard now. We feel good but we always need more help in the field. On the ground in these states, things feel like they are tightening.”

____________________

boomshak:

TWO REAL COMMENTS FROM THE OBAMA/KHALIDI VIDEO:

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/29/dripdripdriptwo-quote-from-obama-at-khalidi-dinner-leak/

"...Saw a clip from the tape. Reason we can’t release it is because statements Obama said to rile audience up during toast. He congratulates Khalidi for his work saying “Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine” plus there’s been “genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis.”

It would be really controversial if it got out. That’s why they will not even let a transcript get out.

____________________

boomshak:

FLASH: THE RIGHT WING BLOGOSPHERE IS OFFERING A REWARD OF $175,000 TO ANYONE WHO HAS A COPY OF THE OBAMA/KHALIDI TAPE TO COME FORWARD.

That's some serious cash.

____________________

Pazienza:

IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 McCain 43.9

Obama has fallen into the sub 50% danger zone in 5 of today's tracking polls. Gallup 49, Battleground 49, Hotline 49, Tipp 46.9, 49.1

____________________

Pazienza:

Zogby Obama 49.1 (for previous post)

____________________

rappinkapc:

@ boomshak
For instance, they say that McCain and Obama are TIED amongst WHITE WOMEN, but Obama LEADS by 16 points amongst ALL WOMEN.

Here is the math:
According to the 2004 exit polls non-white women made up 23% of all women, not 15%. This year, non-white turnout is likely higher, so 23% is a conservative estimate.

With 77% of women being white, 46% favor Obama and 45% favor McCain.
With 100% of women, 53% favor Obama, and 37% favor McCain. What does this imply about non-white women?

.77*.45+.23*X = .37
.77*.46+.23*Y =.53

Where X = percent of non-white women favoring McCain and Y= percent of non-white women favoring Obama.

This implies that among non-white women, the margin is: 76%- 10%.

That doesn't sound too unreasonable, does it?

____________________

green baby green:

@ Boom

Didn't you say a few days ago not to believe "unnamed sources" in regards to conflicts within the JM campaign? And now you are using "unnamed sources" from the BO campaign that the race is tighter than it looks? GET REAL!

Interesting that in CA (my state) JM trails by 25 points (10% of the total population), he leads in all ofthe battleground states by several points to double digits, yet his national lead is only 3 points on Rasmussen? I think that Pew is going to get this one right and that this will be a god'ol fashioned blowout. Pollsters are underestimating cell phones v. land lines, lying republicans (saying they are D's or I's because they are unhappy with their party but will still support JM), undercounting young voters and assuming too many replublicans will vote....

This will turn out to be a landslide victory, MARK MY WORDS!

____________________

TheDragon:

When you go to the political dashboard and click Nevada I couldn't stop laughing.

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Everyone

Fine be scared of a McCain comeback. Complacency is bad. Boomshak is really working for the Obama team. Excellent.

M

____________________

Nowukkers:

Sorry for the digression and the non sequitur nature of this comment, but I get the feeling, given the apparent and growing disconnect between McCain and Palin (viz "diva" and "whack-job" and the unscripted diversions from both of them), that even if they did win, they're so far apart (except in their evident randomness), they wouldn't have the faintest idea what to do, except fire off in a million different directions at once. As is said in that movie "The Candidate": "what do we do now?".

____________________

Nowukkers:

boomshak:
FLASH: THE RIGHT WING BLOGOSPHERE IS OFFERING A REWARD OF $175,000 TO ANYONE WHO HAS A COPY OF THE OBAMA/KHALIDI TAPE TO COME FORWARD.

That's some serious cash.

Serious money - they must be desperate - otherwise they'd be using the money for ads or fancy clothes.

____________________



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