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US: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Gallup 9/27-29)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
09/27-29, 08; 2,729 RV 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 43

 

Comments
Viperlord:

Oh dear, I hope boom hasn't had a heart attack, it's no fun when there are no ignoramuses.

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miatch:

Boom, you still certain this all gets back to 48-48 by the end of the week? Been on intrade today?

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PortlandRocks:

I know Boom has till Sunday for a tie! ROFL
His predictions are always dead wrong.
Where are all the Rasmussen state #'s from yesterday? This site is so behind.

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sebastianguy99:

Why are Pennsylvania and Colorado still yellow? Why is Missouri still light red?

Is it methodology, deference, or just plain god awful slow reaction?

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boomshak:

Dow up +422. Good polling day for McCain tomorrow.

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boomshak:

Tomorrow's Predictions:

Gallup O+4
Rasmussen O+5
Hotline O+5

All McCain needs to do after the VP debate is O-1 and M+1 and we are right back to a statistical tie by Sunday.

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Isher:

Boom I am going to talk about you like everyone else.

No, seriously, whether the dow's up or down isn't going to change an undecided's vote. Whether people are worried about the long run will, and that's not going to change tomorrow. Even if a bailout's passed, people are going to be worried about jobs (still the biggest worry by far), esp. in rustbelt states like... all the yellow ones.

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macsuk:

boomshak

How does the Dow being up help McCain? I thought he was for the bailout before he was against it before he was for it after he was not sure about it just before he said he would support it.

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Tyler:

"Statistical tie" by itself is a 100% meaningless term.

What you mean when you say that a result represents a statistical tie is that the probability that the candidate leading in the result is leading in reality is less than X%, but you're not specifying what X is.

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Atomique:

LOL.

Please, Republicans, keep telling yourselves McCain will win this thing. In fact, don't even bother voting. It's not even worth it. This thing's in the bag for you, OK? McCain and Palin are clearly geniuses with nothing but great ideas, and the American people will come around sometime in the next 35 days.

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burrito:

@PortlandRocks

All the Rasmussen polls have been update in their respective States (i.e. you must click on each of the States to see them) ... this was explained by Mark on his morning update ...

/blogs/morning_status_update_for_930.html

@sebastianguy99

visit the above link ... there is an explanation about this ...

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boomshak:

A READER AT A MAJOR NEWSROOM EMAILS: "Off the record, every suspicion you have about MSM being in the tank for O is true. We have a team of 4 people going thru dumpsters in Alaska and 4 in arizona. Not a single one looking into Acorn, Ayers or Freddiemae. Editor refuses to publish anything that would jeopardize election for O, and betting you dollars to donuts same is true at NYT, others. People cheer when CNN or NBC run another Palin-mocking but raising any reasonable inquiry into obama is derided or flat out ignored. The fix is in, and its working." I asked permission to reprint without attribution and it was granted.

UPDATE: The Anchoress hears similar things. And reader Eric Schubert: "The Edwards debacle was proof enough of where the heart of the MSM lies, and lack of curiousity of the press about Edwards probably cost Hillary the nomination. And that shameful episode offers a warning to the MSM. What if Obama does have a skeleton in his closet (such as a shady deal or outright bribe) that is revealed after he wins the election? While the chance of this scenario is remote, imagine the backlash against the MSM if it could be shown that a reasonable investigation by the MSM would have easily revealed this secret to the public prior to the election?"

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Viperlord:

Please boom, not a single one of your predictions has come true. Ever.

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boomshak:

@Viperlord:

So you are saying that the market up 400 points and rumors of an impending deal on the economy WON'T help McCain tomorrow

Oh, ok, lol.

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PaddyMac22:

polls are interesting, but the fact is they are often inaccurate. Do you really think the republicans are not going to pull a rabbit out of a hat before the election. of course they will, especially if they are trailing in the polls. I would guess that there are many of white americans that will be voting for the first time, or the first time in a while, because of the canidates.

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Justin:

The PA trendline looks just plain wrong to me at the default setting.

Also, it's been almost two weeks since we've seen any polling in Indiana. Odd.

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Save US:

I doubt anything on the economy is ever gonna help McCain...

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boomshak:

The October Surprise:

Israel bombs Iran's Nuke facilities, ESPECIALLY if they think Obama will win.

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boomshak:

If we get some buy programs on close, we could end up +600 on the Dow today.

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boomshak:

GOOG +35 today.

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boomshak:

@miatch:

"statistically tied" by Sunday nimrod.

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Adrian B:

Point 1 - even if there's a deal on the bail-out it wont suddenly right the economy. That is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Point 2 - the VP debates are meaningless, however well either candidate do - they never change votes (remember Quayle vs Bentsen).

Point 3 - McCain will get no credit for a deal, if one does get passed, because he was clearly trying to benefit from the crisis by his campaign suspension (even 80% of right-wing commentators agree it was a stunt), and then when he tried to swing the votes he showed he had no leverage.

Point 4 - by 2:1 people blame the Republicans for this mess (rightly or wrongly) and they will punish them at the polls.

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boomshak:

@Adrian B:

Point 2 - the VP debates are meaningless, however well either candidate do - they never change votes (remember Quayle vs Bentsen).

No, actually if Palin performs well, McCain could pick up 10 points amongst white women.

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PaddyMac22:

Of course the economy has the oppurtunity to help McCain. The message of reduced spending will resonate with many americans. Regardless of factual history and data, McCain will turn this economy question into his favor with many. Maybe not all. But many. ---My poll of 10 people at a restaurant 2 hours ago at lunch (yes i talk to others). Are you a working class american? All answered yes. Will your taxes go down with Obama as President or McCain? 6 McCain, 2 Obama, 2 i don't no, and why are you talking to me at lunch?

Florida

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boomshak:

OMG, BRUTAL NEW MCCAIN AD! WOW!

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/sep/30/good-new-mccain-ad/

Best ad McCain has ever run - and he uses Bill Clinton's own words to do it.

Wow, just wow.

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boomshak:

Wow, I just watched it again. THAT may be the BEST AD of the entire political season.

There's hope yet!

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Justin:

Good for a laugh:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-palinreligion28-2008sep28,0,3643718.story?track=rss

Soon after Sarah Palin was elected mayor of the foothill town of Wasilla, Alaska, she startled a local music teacher by insisting in casual conversation that men and dinosaurs coexisted on an Earth created 6,000 years ago -- about 65 million years after scientists say most dinosaurs became extinct -- the teacher said.

After conducting a college band and watching Palin deliver a commencement address to a small group of home-schooled students in June 1997, Wasilla resident Philip Munger said, he asked the young mayor about her religious beliefs.

Palin told him that "dinosaurs and humans walked the Earth at the same time," Munger said. When he asked her about prehistoric fossils and tracks dating back millions of years, Palin said "she had seen pictures of human footprints inside the tracks," recalled Munger, who teaches music at the University of Alaska in Anchorage...

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Dana Adini:

even new battleground poll is blue

Obama 48% +2

McCain 46% -2

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DaylightDisc:

I come here every day to see the comments here. Its sad to see the right wingers on here pulling anything and everything hypothetical out of their butt to counter the reality that Obama is winning. Desperation is showing....'Israel will bomb Iran Nuke facilities' for example.
Your party and candidate was close once but is fading.

The general public (not the poll geeks here)see the numbers and they come away with Obama is winning and is steadily increasing his lead. Its a fact. Its just that simple.
And when people see their candidate (MAGoo in this case) falling behind, there may be a apathetic malaise that sets in that causes them not to vote when they know they are going to lose.

Dont get me wrong, I enjoy the back and forth about the legitamate weightings and methods for polling. You all inform me very well. Im just saying that trying to pull out 'October Surprise' speculation is anithetical to your logic.

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cmbat:

@boomshak-

You continue to be in LA-LA land about all of this.

Why does Ayers matter if Palin's church does not?

Why does Acorn matter if Keating does not?

Why does FannieMae matter when both sides took funds from Fannie?

The idea that MSM is in the tank for Obama is ridiculous. They let the Ayers thing going on for months without going after McCain's religious nutjob.

The ACORN issue is a non-starter. You can rag on that group all you want, but they weren't responsible for the mortgage crisis and they have helped out a lot of people.

The real coverage is on all of the stupid pet tricks that McCain keeps performing. Maybe if he'd man up and start acting Presidential, the world would consider him as such.

People like you are a joke.

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PaddyMac22:

Boomshak

Great ad. We need to hope people dont check the facts (because i know, and i'm guessing you know) but we need others to be blind to this. You are right. Great Ad. And back to my point about McCain using the economy as a speaking point.

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Dana Adini:

Boomshak

those comments are old news. Funny thing is that Obama beat Hillary becasue all of the repulicans who crossed over in open primaries becasue they hated/feared her. Now he's going to kick your collective behinds.

cruel fate

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boomshak:

cmbat = delusional moonbat

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Isher:

@boomshak

OMG BRUTAL NEW AD OMG

Did you just wake up?

The ad's sortof lame. It has nothing substantial against O, the bringing up of Clinton bashing himself won't matter to anyone, and McCain's so anti-regulation and so behind in money that all the spots against him recently will have more of an impact (not just because they have a decent production value and were done by non-idiots, but because they'll be more widely dispersed).

In fact, this one will have more effect than that one:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Obama_ad_sells_defends_healthcare_plan.html#comments

Wow, just wow.

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boskop:

@boomshak
I luv ya. i mean it.

look, oil is down. people arent getting booted from their homes. subprimes represent only 14%. we still dig earth, grow food and covet what the next fella has in his living room.

that's human nature - so we may get a downturn in useless paper being traded in a panic, but whatever it was that built rome to last is still in us.

WHAT DID SHE SAY?

I mean, we cant stop ourselves from moving on. the economy is strong because we have itchy fingers. we got here because the poor person coveted the big house and couldnt afford and we'll get out of it because we covet. PERIOD.

so who the hell cares about the recovery bill?
if it doesnt pass, oil plummets and everyone is happy they didnt have to revamp their cars with water bottles and conversion CNG.

otherwise, the bill passes and people start groping after this and that and drive the economy up up and away.

So let's talk OBAMA// I call him the Nutch who wants his Nitch.

First, what precisely is his core? beyond sheer salivating ego, that is.

I see him him bouncing from news cycle to news cycle playing it like a drunken paladin trying to shoot a snake weaving in the grass. he keeps shooting after it thinking this turn is the most important one, when really it's the next and he tries to take aim again. very exhausting.

SO, he tries to win the day but what drives his thesis? Somtehing that sustains his legistlation, his foreign policy other than, gotcha, george w bush! i mean really.

I cant see him staking out a claim and waiting it out for the long term on anything. he just wants to win the round at the expense of his mental integrity and the long term effects of
constantly jabbing. he's the kind of boxer that wears themselves out by jumping around and striking constantly hoping to land one.

you know that kind. they turn green and collapse by round four.

come on barack, cool it. what the hell is your style beyond wanting to just win for winning's sake?

well, now let's see. there was that lady friend of his who told him to go out and make his anti war speech so he could win the senate seat in Chicago. But it was a jab. He punched into the air, ONCE.

but it wasnt sustained footwork. he never marched with sheehan, he never bellowed loud and clear beyond his nitch. he never stuck his head out beyond his state seat. All he ever was was a NUTCH looking for a NITCH.

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ticketstub:

@ boom

calling cmbat a delusional moonbat doesn't answer any of the questions asked. Those first few questions posed are relevant I think, and deserve an actual answer. I'm not trying to attack here, but if that's such a ridiculous thing for cmbat to say, explain to me why...that's fair, yes?

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PaddyMac22:

daylightdisc,

you make it sound simple but do you remeber 2000, and 2004? if you think obama and the dems are just going to walk away with this election, you are wrong. republicans are that good. stevens might even win alaska for the senate seat. think. stevens may win alaska. amazing but true.

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BOOMFAIL:

To be honest, I expected McSame's ads to be much worse by now. As Obama can speak directly into the camera with positive messages about his plans while looking very presidential, all McSame can offer are negative attacks. I still believe he will get much nastier. He hasn't caught on that negative ads for him aren't working, and the blame game seems stale to most. Buck up and offer what can be done to help the country. Remember we aren't supposed to question why we were mislead into Iraq. Don't talk about how we got there, right.

McSame knows Losing sucks.

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ticketstub:

@ boskop

For arguments sake, lets say we concede that Obama is "bouncing from news cycle to news cycle." Can you really with a straight face say that Palin/the Columbia trip/"suspending" his campaign isn't McCain chasing news cycles left and right? It certainly seems like that's what that is to me.

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macsuk:

boomshak

In case you didn't notice Obama beat the Clintons once and can do so again. Have you noticed in his moment of desperation all McCain has is taking statements out of context and making an ad out of them. It makes you think that the explosive Rovian type surprise does not exist.

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burrito:

After listening for several days to all the blabbering coming from boomshak, now I understand why so many Republicans think that the selection of Sarah Palin for the Vice-President position was a good choice … It is my impression that incoherence, false assumptions, unreasonable predictions, senseless statements and uneducated conclusions are highly regarded by this Party … one could say that George W. Bush is a fine example of my conclusions on this point …

But I must give credit to boomshak. In these perilous times that we live, some of us often look at life and the future not very positively … but here, in Pollster, we have boomshak who tries (very hard, apparently) to make us laugh every day with his nonsense …

I think that this is the trademark of this Party (the Republican Party) … this is not politics … this a COMEDY TOUR !! That is why comedy programs such as the Daily Show and SNL do not even have to do any hard work on obtaining or providing any material … they can simply use, either clips (such as in the Daily Show), or just verbatim (such as the SNL skits) … even the most serious hosts of the most serious television shows (I saw the other day Tom Brokaw trying to contain laughter) seem to be involved in comedy (such as Katie Couric) … is this the strategy of this Party? “There is no substance in what we say, but we will make you laugh” ?

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Isher:

@Boskop

You're almost as out of touch as McCain. Please go back to school and take a course in economics. And it's spelled niche.

#1 Reason people are losing their homes? Health Care bankruptcy

#1 Reason Republicans will vote for Obama? Health Care. McCain will raise taxes on Health Care and then give people tax credits to get health care. In other words, it'll cost more. Why? Because he's clueless.

Poor people trying to get houses is not why we're in this mess, and market correction is not going to fix the fact that speculation on borrowed money on overpriced homes is the problem, not poor people who lost their homes last year.

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nomorerepubs:

McCain cannot afford to get nastier. People do not like McCain, even the one's who are voting for him don't like HIM.

W. even though he was and is a snake seemed likeable and even a little charming and he used surrogates to be nasty and so the Rovian sleeze machine was able to do their worst with Gore and Kerry. They had majorities in states that they could illegally control and they managed to steal the elections, But with such a cantakerous and un-charming candidate as McCain as well as their loss of majority status in many states I don't believe they can do it again.

Someone said that the Repubs are not just going to let Obama walk away with it they are that good. Well the repubs are that good. It is an absolute disgrace but they are the best sleeze merchants I have seen in my life. But I tthink this election cycle is different, we have had enough.

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cinnamonape:

"The October Surprise:

Israel bombs Iran's Nuke facilities, ESPECIALLY if they think Obama will win."

Of course this would have to be given a "green light" by Bush. And would be the greatest miscalculation since the invasion of Iraq.

It that would set off a nice conflagration in the ME...which our men and women on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan likely to pay the price. Just when the surge was "stabilizing things, but fragile". Just what we need is retaliatory riots against the US in Iraq. And the Malaki government would very quickly fall.

And the US would be hung out to dry by Europe....who would not support the US allowing such an attack.

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PaddyMac22:

McSame, thats funny. I'm going to use that.

McCain will continue, and negative ads do work. They work very well. Take a look around you. Talk to some ordinary people. This works. You want to believe it is a "no-brainer" but it is not. Just talk to people, they will let you know. How many really know the facts? Maybe 5%. It's funny but sad, so dont dicount the republicans. McSame is a vaible canidate and president. Just ask.

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Batony:

"Before the Democrats' affirmative action lending policies became an embarrassment, the Los Angeles Times reported that, starting in 1992, a majority-Democratic Congress "mandated that Fannie and Freddie increase their purchases of mortgages for low-income and medium-income borrowers. Operating under that requirement, Fannie Mae, in particular, has been aggressive and creative in stimulating minority gains."

Under Clinton, the entire federal government put massive pressure on banks to grant more mortgages to the poor and minorities. Clinton's secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Andrew Cuomo, investigated Fannie Mae for racial discrimination and proposed that 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low- to moderate-income borrowers by the year 2001...."

I know we are not suppose to talk this...and the fact that the illegal immigrants who purchase homes are leaving..nevermind.

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sherman:

McCain has blown it twice now:

1. His VP pick is no longer helping him.
2. His campaign stunt with the bailout bill has backfired spectacularly.

We see polls showing ties or Obama leads in FL, NC and VA. These are must-win states for McCain. He's already done so much negative campaigning nobody believes anything he says anymore. It's not over yet, but McCain is making it harder and harder to climb back out of the hole.

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Commander_King:

I think it is time that Boomshak be banned from this site.His insane comments are getting annoying.

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Commander_King:

I think it is time that Boomshak be banned from this site.His insane comments are getting annoying.

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Commander_King:

I think it is time that Boomshak be banned from this site.His insane comments are getting annoying.

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PaddyMac22:

nomorerepubs,

yes, that good. believe what you want, fool yourself. you have to much faith in your neighbor.

yes that good.

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cinnamonape:

McCain just said on FOX that he's considering suspending his campaign again until Congress passes another bailout bill! LOL! "I'm really gonna get involved THIS time...and get the votes!"

Of course, if he does that means the Palin-Biden debate is "off".

What the he** is going on with this guy?

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Tyler:

This site would have about 10% the traffic in the comments section if it weren't for boomshak and his obstinant tinfoil-hattery. Leave him be. :)

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burrito:

@cinnamonape

McCain says : "I'm really gonna get involved THIS time..." ?? LOL, ROFL, ROFLMAO !!!

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boomshak:

@Commander_King:

Without me, this whole website would be one giant liberal cluster-f...

Well, you know.

Anyway, I make it fun :) What good is a Forum where everyone agrees?

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sherman:

Sorry, one more thing. It is not the mortgages of poor people that are causing this crisis. Please do some research. The crisis is being caused by middle-class people who tried to buy more house than they could afford. The banks didn't care and gave them whatever money they asked for. The re-finance game stopped and those same borrowers, who assumed their salaries would rise more than their payments, couldn't afford their houses. If it were just poor people, the system was built to handle those defaults, mostly in houses under $300k. It's the McMansion set that's causing the financial collapse today (you know, 500k to 700k houses that they built everywhere).

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boomshak:

NEWS FLASH! Just reported on CNBC:

Republicans may save this whole thing by convincing the SEC to give up "mark-to-market" accounting, thus making the bailout unnecessary.

If this goes though, Republicans could get credit for saving the whole thing!

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Commander_King:

For some reason I get the feeling you Boomshak are the only one who wants them to get credit.

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DecaturMark:

Don't forget the housing speculators were buying houses with no credit with the hopes of flipping them quickly in a rising market for a profit. It made everyone think that if they don't buy now, they will never be able to afford a home. So they purchased a home at an inflated price hoping that the home prices would continue to soar. The brokers were betting on the same thing. It did not.

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Tyler:

Agreed - there is nothing inherently wrong about encouraging lending to poor people, minorities, and people with bad credit... as long as the loans are of appropriate size, have an appropriate interest rate, and have an appropriate down payment.

The problem that led to this crisis was giving out loans that were far too big, or had an absurd teaser rate, or required far too little (or no) money down based on the assumption that the borrower could continually re-finance the loan whenever the payments were about to increase.

That kind of ridiculous lending wasn't at all limited to the poor, minorities, or people with bad credit, and it wasn't driven by encouragement to lend to them - it was driven by the ability of the mortgage broker to easily absolve himself of all risk immediately after making the bad loan by quickly pawning it off on someone else.

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glober:

@ Boomshak

So Boom, is there anything the Repubs did wrong in the last 8 years when it comes to the economy, foreign affairs,ethics, health care, finance? They must have did something wrong to be so far behind in the polls. Remember this is a center-right country (until Nov 4th at least)
The Dems did plenty of mistakes, they weren't that bad, but they were mistakes.
Tell me Boom.

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miatch:

@Boom

You are right, your madness is useful. Did you want to comment on intrade?

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Tyler:

@Boomshak

So wait - are you seriously claiming that you think the global economic crisis can be averted by changing accounting methods?

I think I'll posit that if this problem could be solved by rearranging spreadsheets, someone would have done that already.

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kerrchdavis:

I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the Republicans saving something for the first time in 16 years :)

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nick-socal:

@Boomshak, If what CNBC is reporting actually comes to fruition (you often get excited about something immediately before thinking about it) then so what? I guess that's good for those Congressional Republicans in their own election races back home. But it still ignores the fact that it was Bush and his administration who wanted the $700 billion bailout. And it was McCain who was for it before he was against it before he was for something like it again. I'm not saying Obama wasn't for it either, but come on. If it turns out to be as simple as the SEC changing a rule, how dumb does that make Bush, McCain, and Obama look? Real dumb. And so where's the net gain for McCain in this?

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DecaturMark:

@Tyler

"I think I'll posit that if this problem could be solved by rearranging spreadsheets, someone would have done that already."

Someone did do it already. It was a company called ENRON!

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Commander_King:

Don't count on it...the only thing they will try to save is their political careers.Note: McCain's countless stunts to try and take momentum from Obama despite the fact that his stunts could hurt the country.

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak,

Republicans aren't going to get credit for saving the economy, even if they actually do. Therein lies the rub for McCain. The more he tries to help save the economy, the further he drops in the polls.

Public perception is difficult to change. This may infuriate you, because it may end up being wrong. but it's the truth. It's just how politics works. Republicans are blamed for the mess, and just because they tweak one part of one bill, the public ain't gonna let them off the hook.

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Mike_in_CA:

and also, boomshak,

just because the DOW goes up, or some other absurd metric, doesn't change underlying fundamentals. Public opinion is rigid, and often inflexible.

Exhibit A: Throughout the month of July Obama has ~3-5% lead in the polls. Now, beginning of October, he has about 4-6% lead in the polls. And growing. The FUNDAMENTALS don't change.

Wild polling swings are more often than not float with the MOE. I was a statistics major in college.

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falcon79:

DAMN DOES ANYONE KNOW WHY ALL THE RECENT STATE POLLS ARE NOT UPDATING ON THIS LIST IN POLLSTER??
ITS KILLING ALL THE FUN OF POLL WATCHING TO NOT HAVE THE POLLS UP :(

____________________

PortlandRocks:

So cute Boomshak googling all day trying to find the silver lining for McCain. It's over buddy.

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AlanSnipes:

Boomshak,

Do you have a job or are you independently wealthy and are angry that a democratic administration may raise your taxes? You appear to have a lot of time on your hands to post inane comments. You don't believe in facts, that's why you are a Republican in the first place.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcyzsQH0QgY

Come on OHIO! Don't let them make get you discouraged with 10 hour waiting times in Democratic areas again this time! Make sure everyone gets out early to prevent another repeat of 2004!

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike_in_CA:

We'll see. CNBC is talking about the Republican Plan on mark-to-market non-stop right now.

____________________

boomshak:

@AlanSnipes:
Boomshak,

"Do you have a job or are you independently wealthy...?"

I am independently wealthy and have nothing better to do all day than argue with you moonbats :)

____________________

boomshak:

Woohoo! Republicans have saved the economy! CNBC is ORGASMIC over this!

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@boomshak

"No, actually if Palin performs well, McCain could pick up 10 points amongst white women"

She's gotten as many white women as she's going to get. The euphoria is over. If she performs poorly, which I expect she will, she will bring the ticket down another point or two. Otherwise, she's not going to be any benefit going forward for John McCain. Rule number 1 for V.P. candidates is "do no harm". She's already hurt the ticket and his chances.

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nick-socal:

@Boomshak. If this whole "the sky is falling and we're headed for a Depression doom and gloom" mantra turns out to be solved by a change in how the SEC accounts for things then there will be a lot of people who look dumb and a lot of Americans scratching their heads. AND a lot of questions. How does this benefit McCain?

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Batony:

I believe both parties hands are dirty in this mess. Sure the Republicans will take the heat, but neither party hands are clean in this. I am bound by contract not to mention my employer's practicesin this, but let me just say there were some nice bonuses going out.

If John McCain "suspends" his campaing again...just quit. I mean he doesn't see that no one bought his stunt last time, his poll numbers tanked immediately.

And let me say aren't we all lucky to have lived to witness the worst President in American history? What a disgrace.

____________________

DecaturMark:

The old Mark-to-Market was the accounting practices used by Enron and other enorgy concerns in the 1990s. Congress changed the rules to Mark-to-Market to prevent these types of abuses. An now we want to go back? How crazy is that.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/3002524?f=related

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PortlandRocks:

What would Republicans do without these voters?

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2008/09/30/pallone.obama.sign.cf13

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PortlandRocks:

I know so many Americans who watch CNBC. LOL

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nick-socal:

Do you honestly think NO ONE had thought of something as simple as changing a rule at the SEC? And that is going to solve all these apparent problems in our economy? Remember, the Democratically led Congress HAD to take up the bill per the Presidents request. It's not like they just decided to make up the $700 billion bailout themselves.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

This amazing excitement Boom speaks of isnt even on CNBC's website LOL This guy is delusional. He's so HUNGRY for good news about his failed party.

____________________

boskop:

@boomshak

have you heard anything uner the radar on the two ships seized by the somali pirates?

there's some confusion on the one out of iran. some of the pirates are dead from skin abrasions etc.

let me know if you have the scuttlebutt on it.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

BOOMSHAK woah..turn on Fox News. McCain just collapsed!

____________________

nick-socal:

How would mark-to-market change the fact that the loans the banks and lenders have on their books are bad? Why would that suddenly make the lendees be able to pay their obligation?

____________________

nick-socal:

@Portland. I don't have access to that. What happened?

____________________

Viperlord:

Wow, you guys actually thought boom was taking anything he said from a article somewhere? I thought all along he was making it up.

____________________

boomshak:

Even if you like Obama, THIS has got to creep you out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW9b0xr06qA

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Obama just saved a baby from a burning building with his left hand and fixed the economy with his right! OMG! Turn on CNBC guys, they're having an ORGASM!

____________________

Tyler:

SUSA just posted a poll for Georgia

Obama 44
McCain 52
[M+8]

which is not too surprising and in line with previous results. But the good news is the Senate poll that came with it:

Chambliss (R-i) 46
Martin (D) 44
[Chambliss+2]

This shows a distinct nosedive in support for Chambliss. He was polling at +17 in a SUSA survey just two weeks ago (Rasmussen polling confirms this trend over a longer period of time).

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

OMG! OMG! Republicans save the world. The sun is shining. Happy days are here again.

Then he woke up.

____________________

Justin:

Survey USA

New Jersey
Obama 52, McCain 42
Lautenberg(D) 51, Zimmer(R) 38

Georgia
Obama 44, McCain 52
Martin(D) 44, Chambliss(R) 46

Ohio
Obama 48, McCain 49

Indiana
Obama 45, McCain 48

____________________

DecaturMark:

Tyler

Did you also notice in that GA poll that in early voting Obama had 64% and McCain had 35%? I think that is a precursor to things to come in other early voting states like OH.

____________________

boomshak:

@Tyler,

Wild swings in a SUSA Survey? What else is new?

____________________

boomshak:

You know, I have to say, Catie Kouric is one condescending b*tch.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"Obama just saved a baby from a burning building with his left hand and fixed the economy with his right! OMG! Turn on CNBC guys, they're having an ORGASM!"

Man I really get under your skin, don't I? lol.

____________________

DecaturMark:

In/Adv has O 51 M 45

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

Nah, you're just daily comedy. It's funny messing with people like you. You're the laughingstock of this entire forum and you don't have the brains to realize it. :D

____________________

DecaturMark:

In/Adv has O 51 and M 45 in VA

____________________

boomshak:

AND THIS FROM CNN (TOO FUNNY):

"In a new CNN poll of polls consisting of surveys conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, Obama holds a 5-point lead over McCain, 48-43 percent. That's exactly where the race stood immediately before the two candidates kicked off the presidential debate season in Oxford, Mississippi, four days ago.

“The ruling on last Friday’s presidential debate is in, and it’s a split decision,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “The debate changed nothing. Obama’s supporters aren’t shifting to McCain, McCain’s supporters aren’t shifting to Obama, and undecided voters are still undecided.

But the poll numbers come even as surveys conducted by several media organizations immediately after the debate showed most viewers thought Obama had won. However the polls also showed the debate viewers appeared to be more Democratic than the overall population."

Lol, just lol, I TOLD you those post-debate CNN Polls showing Obama winning in a romp were a joke.

Again, another poll showing Obama up by only 5 despite a HUGE advantage with the economy.

Incredible.

____________________

boomshak:

People, Obama has EVERY CONCEIVABLE ADVANTAGE here and he is only 2 points higher than a tie with the MOE?

Wow. Two words:

1) Thin
2) Ice

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

So if Obama is in such an easy position to take down, why can't McCain close the deal?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Obama up by 6 points nationally guys. Making great progress in the swing states. If the election were held today, it would be a landslide.

Keep up the good work everyone :)

____________________

boskop:

@boom

and what's the worst thing for thin ice?

a little heat, baby.

go Iran!!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak that video of the children singing for hope didn't scare me a bit. How sad you thought so. I wonder what the Republican/Bush/McCain children's song would sound like. ALL CHILDREN LEFT BEHIND LALALA with the largest deficit of MAN KIND LALALA.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

lol! If Obama is on thin ice, McCain is below the ice..drowning.

What a joke! Obama up by 6 points nationally guys, not including a great ground game, huge enthusiasm gap and what will be a record voter turnout.

A 6 point lead nationally results in a HUGE victory.

____________________

Justin:

Insider Advantage

Ohio
Obama 47, McCain 45

____________________

DecaturMark:

In/Adv O47 M 45 OH

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak you are so funny. So the guy who's down 6 in most national polls does nothing after debate 1 to change the race. Is that a net positive McCain? YOU ARE SO EXCITED! RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Democratic turnout this election will be HUGE. Early voting statistics should start to show the level of interest. Expect long lines, but don't let them keep you from voting!

Here's one for all the haters from the last election:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DkD4kjJwG4

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

I own you.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

6 points would be a national landslide people. And 30 days to go, every single day makes the shortcoming harder and harder for the senator of 26 years to make up.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Portland. What happened on Fox with McCain collapsing? Or were you being facetious based on boomshak's spastic posts?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

haha, you can't even put a coherent argument together, let alone own anyone.

Pathetic. Fail.

____________________

Justin:

Ohio is voting today. I would love to see those numbers. I know the votes cannot be counted until Election Day, but does anyone know if we can expect to hear what the turnout is?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow Obama up 6 in VA. It's no fluke.. SEVRAL polls now indicating a similar result. McCain's toast. Not only will he lose COLORADO, he will now lose VA. Watch out NC, IN, and OH. Grandpa's going back to the Senate! Yeeeehaaaaaa!

____________________

DecaturMark:

@nick-socal:

Yes he was being facetious.

____________________

boomshak:

THE DIRTY LITTLE SECRET OF THIS FORUM:

The dirty little secret in here? The moonbats are nervous because they honestly all thought their boy would be +10 or more by now and he isn't.

Admit it, you guys are nervous.

P.S., At this point, McCain literally CANNOT have run a worse campaign than he has run and he is only down 5-6.

If McCain starts to run even a half-decent campaign and the economy continues to look stronger, he can't help but surge.

____________________

Batony:

McCain is still up by 3 in Indiana according to Survey USA:

McCain 48%
Obama 45%

If McCain can get past this rough spot, he will be ok.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

hey Nick..sorry bud. bad joke.. Collapsed I meant like #'s falling all over the place. WOW down 2 in OH, 6 in VA, down in FL today... I love watching Boom spin this. Per Nate, these national polls can sometimes take 2 weeks to reflect at the state level. Looks like it's comin' home for President Obama. God the world will rejoice..they love this man.

____________________

boomshak:

QUESTION:

With Ohio's new SAME DAY VOTING (rediculous) rules, do you have to show a picture ID to register and vote, or can you just go around town and register/vote as Bozo the Clown 20 times if you like?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

keep dreaming you delusional hack. Keep trying to convince yourself that your crappy candidate has a chance. lol, pathetic.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow per the internals on these two new polls..McCain CONTINUES to lose ground amongst indpendents and males.

____________________

ronnie:

New Virginia poll InAdv/PollPosition has Obama leading McCain 51% to 45%....Same poll had McCain up 2 points on the 17th.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Portland. Ah ok. Hehe I wondered. I mean auld sod is OLD so I wasn't sure if you literally meant he collapsed a la Bob Dole in '96.

By the way boomshak. Do you think Kerry ran a terrible campaign? I do. He was too doltish, boring, professorish, and then he got nailed with the swift boats and was too weak to fight back. Homey lost by what 2% or something? And he was 2% down in the polls.

So, your idea that McCain is running a bad campaign and should be down even more doesn't hold water. He's getting his clocked cleaned by Obama. George Bush would dream to have had that much of a lead.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@ronnie, Portland

Nice. Definitely trending to Obama. And with state polls continuing to catch up to the nationals, expect all those numbers today to grow.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I love the comments - "McCain will be ok through this rough spot." Now Reality. Down 3 in FL, down 2 in OH, down 6 in OH, down in Colorado... down down down. Good news McCain!:)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Correction - down 6 in VA:)

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Portland

lol! Talk about tanking numbers. McCain's getting bad poll results faster than boomfail can spin the internals.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Good point nick-socal. Look, let's look at the BIG picture. Bush went into the 04 election with an average 2% poll lead per realclearpolitics.com He won a good majority in the college and popular vote. Up 6 with 30 days to go is FAILURE with TONS of early voting going on in the midst of a financial crisis. Let's sum Boom up... SILVER LINING...he's tryin' hard.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

You all know that the right wing spin on November 5th will be "but Obama ONLY won 6% more of the popular vote, when he should have won by 30 points so this clearly isn't a mandate."

How much more popular vote did GW win in 2000?

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomfail

"Landslide Baby Landslide"

I love it :)

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Okay, let's assume for a second that everything you're saying right and that the _only_ reasons that Obama is up by 6 are because

- McCain is running a crappy campaign
- The economy is tanking
- (From your perspective) the media loves Obama and hates McCain

Here's the problem: those things are happening. No matter how much you think that Obama would be losing if these things weren't happening, it doesn't make them not happen. The election day results aren't going to be adjusted to correct for these occurrances. Even if Obama wins because of McCain's poor campaign, the economy failure and the media, HE STILL WINS.

Your point seems to be "if things were different, the race would be different and McCain would win". Unfortunately for you, things aren't different. They're the way they are.

____________________

Batony:

Portland Rocks are you new to this? Wait...you have to be NW Patrick of course!

But whenever this bailout business is resolves, let's watch the polls then.

But Boom is right. McCain has run a terrible campaign. Can you even call it a campaign if the guy is not campaigning? The one thing I can say about Obama...he is working his butt off. McCain, not so much.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@tyler

Its like one of those annoying football fans that go "Well, if they hadn't been playing at home, didn't have a better defense than us, didn't completely outplay us and weren't better coached, we DEFINITELY would have had a chance to win!"

lol, what a joke!

____________________

nick-socal:

I would take a 0.5% win for Obama. So what about mandates. He'll be the President. And besides I wouldn't mind a few Republicans in his administration such as Sen. Chuck Hagel or Sen. Snowe or such.

____________________

RussTC3:

Winning a national election by more than 10 points in this political climate is a fantasy.

I never expected Obama to be up by more than 4 or so points, and by the way, a four point lead in a national election is enormous.

You want to know the ACTUAL dirty little secret? The fact that Obama is in such a good position right now and en route to an easy Electoral College win.

Let's compare the 3-day rolling averages of Rasmussen from 2004 to the current 3-day rolling averages over the past week.

(Bush/Kerry from 9/22-28, 2004 in parentheses)

9/24-30, 2008
Obama 49.9 (47.4)
McCain 45.1 (49.3)

During the same time frame four years ago, Bush held a 1.9% lead over Kerry. He ended up winning the election by 2.4%.

Obama currently has a 4.8% lead over McCain. Obama's lead is more than TWO TIMES larger than Bush's was in 2004.

While this election is nowhere close to being over, the simple fact of the matter is that Obama is NOT under performing and is right in line with where he should be.

Enough said.

____________________

Pat:

Ohio - InAdv/PollPosition - McCain 45, Obama 47 Obama +2
Virginia - InAdv/PollPosition - Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Florida - PPP (D)- McCain 46, Obama 49, Obama +3
New Jersey - Strategic Vision(R) - Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
Pennsylvania - Morning Call - Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8

____________________

PortlandRocks:

The Big Picture - By PortlandRocks
09/30/2008

Just in - McCain's campaign officially died per James Carvelle on 09/15/08 - QUOTE - "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."

Now for the FACTS, you know, #'s, NO SPIN.

Obama is currently holding EVERY SINGLE Kerry state with poll #'s in EVERY state HIGHER than Kerry had heading into election day with the exception of MA, where Kerry was from.

Now

BattleGrounds - Poll averages:

VIRGINIA +3.0 AVERAGE OBAMA

RCP Average 09/17 - 09/29 -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 436 LV 51 45 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 50 47 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/17 - 09/22 625 LV 44 47 McCain +3
ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 49 46 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 51 45 Obama +6

OHIO +1 McCain and closing in

RCP Average 09/11 - 09/29 -- 46.3 45.3 McCain +1.0
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 45 47 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 619 RV 45 46 Obama +1
Ohio Newspaper Poll 09/12 - 09/16 869 LV 48 42 McCain +6
Marist 09/11 - 09/15 565 LV 45 47 Obama +2
National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 42 41 McCain +1
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 913 RV 47 49 Obama +2
PPP (D) 09/13 - 09/14 1077 LV 48 44 McCain +4
SurveyUSA 09/12 - 09/14 692 LV 49 45 McCain +4

FLORIDA - +.03 McCain (notice a trend though?)

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/28 -- 47.3 47.0 McCain +0.3
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 46 49 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 48 45 McCain +3

COLORADO +5 Obama (Here's the presidency at the MINIMUM)

RCP Average 09/14 - 09/28 -- 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 49 48 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 794 LV 51 47 Obama +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1418 LV 49 45 Obama +4

NORTH CAROLINA +.07 Obama (Watch the trending)

RCP Average 09/13 - 09/28 -- 46.3 47.0 Obama +0.7
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 1041 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 500 LV 47 49 Obama +2
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 910 RV 48 47 McCain +1

NEW HAMPSHIRE +1.3 Obama (Probably won't need it anyways but good #'s)

RCP Average 09/14 - 09/24 -- 46.7 45.4 Obama +1.3
Research 2000 09/22 - 09/24 600 LV 48 44 Obama +4
Strategic Vision (R) 09/22 - 09/24 800 LV 46 45 Obama +1
7News/Suffolk 09/20 - 09/24 600 LV 46 45 Obama +1
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 700 LV 47 49 McCain +2
National Journal/FD 09/18 - 09/22 403 RV 44 43 Obama +1
Marist 09/17 - 09/21 604 LV 51 45 Obama +6
University of New Hampshire 09/14 - 09/21 523 LV 45 47 McCain +2

Now could anyone with a clear mind and knowledge of the facts that were available to me now please SPIN a McCain advantage.

It's almost OVER folks.

2 Bush states that Obama will win for sure:

NEW MEXICO

RCP Average 09/08 - 09/19 -- 50.3 44.3 Obama +6.0
PPP (D) 09/17 - 09/19 1037 LV 53 42 Obama +11
SurveyUSA 09/14 - 09/16 671 LV 52 44 Obama +8
National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 49 42 Obama +7
Rasmussen 09/08 - 09/08 700 LV 47 49 McCain +2

IOWA

RCP Average 09/08 - 09/25 -- 51.0 41.8 Obama +9.2
Rasmussen 09/25 - 09/25 700 LV 51 43 Obama +8
Marist 09/18 - 09/21 467 LV 51 41 Obama +10
Quad-City Times/R2000 09/15 - 09/17 600 LV 53 39 Obama +14
SurveyUSA 09/17 - 09/18 702 LV 54 43 Obama +11
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 643 RV 45 45 Tie
Des Moines Register 09/08 - 09/10 616 LV 52 40 Obama +12


____________________

macsuk:
____________________

PortlandRocks:

Now what was that about a 50 state strategy not working? They did it, the assesed where they were strong, then attacked those strongest red states. It's working AND IT WILL WORK. Hillary would be best hiring Ploufe and Axelrod in 2016.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

God you gotta love CNN. "Debate changed nothing." because national trends show up 3 days after? LOL They are so funny. It's like the time it said CANDIDATES TIED. Then I went into the story and Obama up 5. Tied? Sounds like a Boom explanation! The media WANTS this close. My hunch is, it never was going to be.

____________________

ronnie:

The bailout fallout is likely to hurt McCain more than Obama...The key for Obama is continuing to fight hard in conservative-leaning states...Two states (IN, MO) remain within his reach.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Hey Boom. Could you explain why Obama was up as much as 10 in national polls PRIOR to the conventions and financial crisis? JUST CURIOUS.

____________________

Viperlord:

Palin, keep talking, every time you open your mouth McCain drops in the polls.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I LOVE PALIN! God I love her. Please keep her on the campaign!

____________________

KipTin:

Out of context McCain quote: ""fundamentals of our economy are strong"

Out of context Obama quote yesterday: "And then after this immediate problem, we’ve got the long-term fundamentals that will really make sure this economy grows."

Now the Obama campaign is complaining about GOP misrepresentation of Obama's words... but that did not stop Obama campaign from similarly using McCain out of context. Ain't politics fun?

____________________

DecaturMark:

Boom:

McCain is now +21 in AZ. He was only +6 in mid August. That's a 15 point jump in a month and 1/2. The tide is turning!! ;-)

____________________

KipTin:

When was Obama up 10 points prior to the convention? The Berlin trip? No. Winning the Democratic Primary. No. Need source. Which poll?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@viper, portland

I propose a toast...to the dumbest VP candidate in our history!

Drink up, it's gonna be a wild ride! :)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Politics are fun. Dems FINALLY figured out how to win. McSame/Bush '08. You've been BUSH/SWIFT VOTED.

____________________

JFactor:

The mainstream media is quite often late with their assesments on the state of the race. It's in their best interest to advertize this race being close (not that it isn't) and they always hype their own polls a bit more than they should.
_______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Where's my latteliberal? I miss ya my dear ;)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin it was an LA times, Blooms poll. Up 10.

____________________

ronnie:

Btw, I'm not expecting a ridiculous double-digit win by Obama....I do believe an 8-point win is very possible given the economic circumstances...Bush1 beat Dukakis by about 8 point in '88 giving him 425 in the EC...That's very much a landslide.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

In addition, Obama has been up 6 or 8, I don't recall in Gallop PRE-Financial crisis. So if things level out suddenly the race will swing is NUTS. Minds are being made up folks.

____________________

Viperlord:

*Toasts* Amen! She's winning the race for Obama all on her own, haha. And I see boom is grasping at straws, saying McCain will win by blaming everything on Bill Clinton, lol.

____________________

boomshak:

MCCAIN WAS OUT IN FRONT WITH MARK-TO-MARKET!

"John McCain is pleased to see that the SEC has finally decided to permit alternative accounting methods to mark-to-market accounting for securities where no active market exists. There is serious concern that these accounting rules are worsening the credit crunch, making it difficult for small businesses to stay afloat and squeezing family budgets. In March, John McCain called for a meeting of accounting professionals to discuss whether mark-to-market accounting was magnifying problems in the financial markets."

____________________

boomshak:

MCCAIN WAS OUT IN FRONT WITH MARK-TO-MARKET!

"John McCain is pleased to see that the SEC has finally decided to permit alternative accounting methods to mark-to-market accounting for securities where no active market exists. There is serious concern that these accounting rules are worsening the credit crunch, making it difficult for small businesses to stay afloat and squeezing family budgets. In March, John McCain called for a meeting of accounting professionals to discuss whether mark-to-market accounting was magnifying problems in the financial markets."

..meanwhile, Obama remains "thoughtful" on the subject.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

roflmao! what a joke!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I'm John Mccain and I approve Enron tactics. What a desperate old man. Does he even know what Mark to Market means? He doesn't even use a computer... And he wants to lead the free world?

____________________

boomshak:

What I think is funny as that CNN admitted today that their post-debate BS poll was utter crap.

____________________

zotz:

Kiptin-
That's weak. Obama never said that the economy was strong and McCain didn't say it just once. He said it 16 times. They got him on video saying it over and over and over.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWMVW_82dQ8

Devastating!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

mcCain should have been a little "thoughtful" before pulling the political stunt of suspending his campaign last week. Oh, and before saying "the fundamentals of the economy are strong." Oh, and before selecting the worst VP candidate in history as his running mate. Oh, and before voting with Bush 90% of the time.

lol, what a joke!

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
"roflmao! what a joke!"

If you knew anything about the stockmarket, you would have seen that the Dow surged almost 300 points right after the SEC announced they were considering changing the "mark-to-market" rules.

Your cluelessness is exceeded only by your arrogance.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

The credit crunch is a short-term symptom of the long-term subprime housing loan problem. While yes it is important to alleviate the credit crunch, and yes alternative accounting may help with that, uncrunching credit without figuring out how to ultimately deal with all the bad mortgage-backed securities is just setting yourself up for a much bigger fall later when the corporations who own the bad paper run out of different ways to fudge their accounting books.

I would suggest for their own sake (not to mention the sake of the economy) that the Republicans not tout this idea as a panacea for our economic problems.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

Face it, you are worried. Obama has every possible advantage and still he is only 3 above a statistical tie.

Truly, truly pathetic.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

If you knew anything about logic, and not looking like an idiot, you would never open your mouth or type another sentence again.

Your candidate is a joke, just like you.

____________________

Viperlord:

Typical boom, ignoring every fact or point everyone else makes while spewing your propaganda and Republican talking points.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"Your cluelessness is exceeded only by your arrogance."

You want to know something about "arrogance."

"arrogance" is having every piece of evidence contradict what you believe and failing to admit you are mistaken.

You, boomshak, are the personification of "arrogance."

____________________

PortlandRocks:

ABC news - Obama up 4. So he's down 5 from a week ago? LOL I guess that +9 was an outlier? Who knows. Still 4.8 overall Obama advantage amongst all polls.

____________________

zotz:

boomshak-
So the crisis over? McCain saved the economy? Wow! Is it too late for me to change my regitration to Republican?

____________________

boomshak:

@Tyler:

Admit it, you are nervous the republicans are out in front on this one.

Obama is currently "priced-for-perfection". Literally EVERYTHING has gone his way and he is only 3 points above a statistical tie.

"Anything" goes wrong and he could drop like a rock.

____________________

cmbat:

@boomshak-

Let's face it. 40% of the country is always going to vote with the right and 40% of the country is always going to vote with the left. The idea that a candidate is going to be up 60/40 in this America is nonsense. You're fighting over 20% in the middle, and you won't get them all. The only person who keeps saying that "with the poor economy and all our problems Obama should be way ahead" is...you. By yourself. Talking to yourself. Wishing that the rest of us actually thought anything like you are projecting with your uneducated, right-wing nonsense.

A 55/45 final vote would be a landslide. This isn't even 1996. It won't happen. Too much of a divide between those that understand and those that don't. I've said from the start...my predictions...Obama 51.5 to McCain 47.8 or so...rest going to third parties...EV count between 306 and 311 in Obama's favor.

Based on the current national AND state-by-state, it's actually looking a little bit more in Obama's favor than those numbers. So take your nonsense and shove it.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Ill trust the trackers with around 3000 sample vs 900 ABC news.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"Face it, you are worried. Obama has every possible advantage and still he is only 3 above a statistical tie.

Truly, truly pathetic."

YOUR candidate is a famous Senator of some 20+ years who has always been wildly popular, is known by everyone and has a history of reaching across the aisle. He is also a POW.

And he is losing by 6 points nationally (an ev landslide) to a young, african-american senator with a name that rhymes with "Osama."

Who, exactly, is pathetic?

____________________

cmbat:

@kerrchdavis-

LOL. I like yours better than mine even. Good one.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@cmbat

It's easy when you're arguing with an idiot :P

____________________

macsuk:

ABC is playing with the numbers. According to ABC last week Obama was up 2% with white women and this week he is down by 11%.

____________________

boomshak:

NEW ABC/POST POLL CONFIRMS SURGE OVER:

New ABC/Post Poll just announced showing Obama's lead shrunken to 4. Considering that Gallup was likely Obama +10 or more earlier this week, that is a 7 point DUMP for Obama.

As the economic crisis wanes, so does Obama. I predicted this. As usual, I am right.

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Tyler:

@boomshak

No, to be honest what I'm worried about is that the Republicans are going to push this as "THE" solution so that they can get a quick fix to the problem before November for an electoral advantage (mostly for downticket races) and put off addressing the real problem indefinitely.

I'm not worried about this because it will help Republicans but because even if money starts flowing again, creative accounting won't make the bad loans go away, and eventually we will have to deal with it. And if we get money flowing first and deal with it much later, the banks will have even _less_ liquidity to work with than they do now.

This crisis is only going to end in one of two ways - a lot more bank failures, or the government absorbing a large chunk of bad debt. Creative accounting alone will only delay the inevitable.

If Obama were behind this idea, or if in the future he decides to get behind it, as a total solution to the economic crisis, I would (or will) be just as opposed to it.

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kerrchdavis:

"As usual, I am right."

lol! Anyone else find this really, really funny?

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boomshak:

@macsuk:

"ABC is playing with the numbers. According to ABC last week Obama was up 2% with white women and this week he is down by 11%."

Lol, yep, ABC is a right-wing front group. Lol, isn't this the same ABC that had Obama +8 a few days ago and overweighted their sample 16 points in favor of Democrats?

You moonbats kill me.

Obama is in big trouble as people realize he is Chief Big Talk.

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KipTin:

Yes, I think polls are closing again... ABC/Washington post poll. Change of +9 for Obama to now +4 from one week ago:

Obama 50, McCain 46....Comes after Sept. 22 poll found Obama 52, McCain 43.

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boomshak:

Lol, last week, this entire Forum would have sworn by the accuracy of ABC/Post Polling. Now we understand that ABC is actually carrying McCain's water.

Lol, do you have ANY idea how rediculous you sound?

____________________

political_junki:

@boomshak
Obama is in trouble? and let me guess McIdiot is doing good?
Oh, lol, ok buddy what ever makes you better at night

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chesirecat47:

@everyone

As much fun as purely partisan name-calling is, anyone up for actual rational analysis?

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kerrchdavis:

Yeah, the polls are clearly trending back to McCain:

Rasmussen +1 gain for Obama
Hotline +1 gain for Obama
Gallup - 2 loss for Obama
Battleground +4 gain for Obama
R2k +2 gain for Obama


In the meantime, since we are talking polls, I need to remind everyone:

Boomshaks guide to polls:

1) If it doesn't support the candidate I support: fail.
2) If I don't like the internals: fail
3) If the weighting is different from Rasmussen: fail
4) If the weighting is the same as Rasmussen but I dont like it: fail
5) If its conducted by the MSM: fail
6) If it ISN'T conducted by the MSM but also doesn't support McCain: fail
7) If it is conducted by anything OTHER than a rightwinger: fail
8) If it IS conducted by right wingers but I don't like it: fail
9) If it shows any kind of momentum for Obama: fail
10) If there are 10 polls that go against the 1 poll I like, all 10 are outliers and thus: fail
11) All polling does not matter anyway because America is mid/right and does not elect a lefty.

What a joke. Boomshak, you are pathetic. fail.

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boomshak:

@KipTin:

Change is in the air and the moonbats are howling at the moon.

Face it, today's polling numbers are surprisingly weak for Obama (hey, even I am surprised) considering Obama supposedly creamed Mccain in the debate.

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cmbat:

@boomshak-

This coming from the guy that spells it "rediculous," as in the color of your state.

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boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

Whatever it takes to make you feel better. Keep in mind that all these polls were done AFTER the 777 point selloff yesterday.

What will happen after the 500 pt gain today?

Face it, you are nervous. The Obama economic surge is clearly over.

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BOOMFAIL:

9/30/08: OMG! OMG! The ABC/Washington Post poll has to be the one poll that is right! And with the MOE it's almost a gosh-darn downright tie. I love The Post...it has always been the one poll I can rely on.

9/22/08: Outlier. Nothing to see here. Move along. Fail.

Gives them something to hang onto! How about them state polls btw?!?!

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Batony:

@Portland now you trust the trackers more? Last Abc WashPost was the end for McCain. lol You are hilarious. Like I said this thing is far from over. McCain in Co. on Friday.....now we will see what Obama can handle.

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boomshak:

I'm doing my happy dance :)

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao!!

You know you're pathetic when you get excited because ONE poll shows your candidate down by 4 points.

what a joke!

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ticketstub:

"as the economic crisis wanes so does Obama"

Really? That's REALLY what you see happening? The economic crisis is waning? Man, that would be pretty great if that was anywhere near the truth in the real world.

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zotz:

boomshak-
"Obama is in big trouble as people realize he is Chief Big Talk."

This morning weren't you saying that Obama would win by a landslide? I'm detecting bi-polar disorder here.

I wish you would tell me what meds you're on. I want to get high too!

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Dana Adini:

Intrade:

Obama 338
McCain 200

PA is now dark blue (80%)

Chances of winning

Obama 65%
McCain 35%

that's like being -8.5 favorite in an nfl game or that's the average odds Johan Santana gets pitching a home game vs. an average team

Forget this poll or that poll this is the REAL poll. This is people who understand and have $$$$ at stake interpurt the hundreds of state by state polls.

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KipTin:

Yes, it would be nice if Obamanation were consistent on which polls are good and which polls are bad. Like I said last week, the ABC poll was NOT an outlier. It was not a bad poll, but still fit into the norm when one considered its sampling error.

Based on today's Gallup poll, this new ABC poll, and various state polls, I observe that the Obama "bounce" is now leveling off to showing the close race it really is. Five weeks to go. "Fasten your seat belts. It is going to be a bumpy ride." (based on the character Margo Channing played by Bette Davis in "All About Eve).

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boomshak:

@zotz:

You take me out of context.

I said that "if everything remains the same", Obama could win in a landslide. But clearly, everything is not remaining the same.

If you look at The Likely Voters in the poll, Obama leads only 48 to 45.

I cannot seem to find the party weighting in the poll so cannot comment on that.

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Dana Adini:

typo interpret

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VivalaRevolucion:

Oh Bama! Lord of the universe and beyond ! We bow to you ! ... Look at this video where little kids are being endocrinated a la Hitler , Hussein and Castro youth ... This guy is a dangerous extremist and needs to be stopped -- oops sorry , did I say Hussein? .. I did not mean Barack Hussein but Saddam Hussein ...
http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/30/youdecide_0930/

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boomshak:

McCain has stormed back amongst white women and independents in this poll.

That VP debate now looms larger than ever and the MSM has managed to lower expectations for Palin to almost zero.

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Ryan in MO:

Anyone got the #'s on the latest boomshak poll? I bet boom's got some monster negatives.

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kerrchdavis:

lol, so the national polls today are:

Gallup: O+6
Rasmussen: O+6
R2K: O+11
Hotline: O+6
Battleground: O+4
ABC: O+4

Just wanted to recap.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

Oh Bama! Lord of the universe and beyond ! We bow to you ! ... Look at this video where little kids are being endocrinated a la Hitler , Hussein and Castro youth ... This guy is a dangerous extremist and needs to be stopped -- oops sorry , did I say Hussein? .. I did not mean Barack Hussein but Saddam Hussein ...

http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/30/youdecide_0930/

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boomshak:

@KipTin:

Now that Obama's economic surge has subsided, what bullets does he have left?

Let's just pray McCain starts running a better campaign. 90% of his ads are still horrid.

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Paul:

The latest on Palin's credentials:

Campaign tries to explain Palin's Putin comment
By MARTHA MENDOZA
The Associated Press

Gov. Sarah Palin cites vigilance against Russian warplanes coming into U.S. airspace over Alaska as one of her foreign policy credentials. But the U.S. military command in charge says that hasn't happened in her 21 months in office.

"When you consider even national security issues with Russia, as (Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where - where do they go? It's Alaska," the Republican vice presidential nominee said in an interview last week with CBS News' Katie Couric.

The spokeswoman for the McCain-Palin campaign, Maria Comella, clarified in an e-mail to The Associated Press that when "Russian incursions near Alaskan airspace and inside the air defense identification zone have occurred ... U.S. Air Force fighters have been scrambled repeatedly."

The air defense identification zone, almost completely over water, extends 12-mile past the perimeter of the United States. Most nations have similar areas.

However, no Russian military planes have been flying even into that zone, said Maj. Allen Herritage, a spokesman for the Alaska region of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, at Elmendorf Air Force Base.

"To be very clear, there has not been any incursion in U.S. airspace in recent years," Herritage said.

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KipTin:

Regarding all is not as it appears:

Interestingly, the "debate" poll that SurveyUSA did for Washington State (an Obama-leaner) had McCain winning the debate and split on who they trust more on the economy.

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boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
lol, so the national polls today are:

Gallup: O+6
Rasmussen: O+6
R2K: O+11
Hotline: O+6
Battleground: O+4
ABC: O+4

Just wanted to recap.

And the Dow was up 500 pts today. i think that benefits McCain. Let's find out tomorrow.

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macsuk:

Kip Tin

Actually I thought the ABC poll was an outlier last week and I think because of all the criticism they over corrected this week. Basically it is a crap polster and one should probably split the difference. If one looks at every other poll in America there is no possible way Obama lost 5 points from last week.

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marctx:

Battle of the sexes this Thursday

Its expected to be the most watched VP debate in history. Unlike the snorefest where Obama agreed with McCain on most of the issues "McCain is correct, McCain is correct..." I think it was the least watched debate in modern history.

Just like Gov. Palin's 15 million viewer advantage over Biden. I expect this one to be bigger than McCain-Obama.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ Paul

You probably should thank Gov Palin for that ... Thank God Russian planes do not have to cross the airspace of Illinois first .. certainly make me feel safer to know Alaska is at the forefront ...

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KipTin:

Well, Paul it would have been more informative if you had posted the entire article.

Here is a sample: "Herritage said Air Force officials discussed with Palin instances of Russian planes entering the buffer zone and the U.S. response during their annual statehouse briefing in February."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iAcsX7Yhs3ti5f5TRL92779QzvlQD93H9VNG0

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ticketstub:

The Dow is up. That is true. But to a lot of people, the economy is WAY more than what number the Dow is at. MSM uses it like some sort of perfect indicator of where the economy is and where it's headed. And that's just flat out wrong.

I think there are a lot of economic issues at play in this election. And the stock market is only one small part of it.

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boomshak:

The MSM has made the mistake of pounding on Palin a bit too hard and made her into sympathetic figure amongst white women.

Also, I think the MSM started their victory lap before the race was done and this may be turning off independents.

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boomshak:

@ticketstub:

Don't forget the linear thinking of most Americans. Dow is down - bad, dow is up - good.

Anyway, we'll see how all this plays out. If this thing is statistically tied by Sunday, there will be a lot of crow on the menu in here that day.

Lol.

____________________

boomshak:

Hey, can anyone find the party weightings on this ABC poll?

Maybe after getting so much grief last time they did not include them this time.

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VivalaRevolucion:

Media's bias hit H Clinton hard on her gaffe about being shot at in Bosnia ... But when it comes to Biden -- sexism in the media?

Biden revises claim he was ‘shot at’ in Iraq

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/biden-revises-claim-he-was-shot-at-in-iraq-2007-08-08.html

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KipTin:

Question: Which state shares a Maritime boundary with Russia?
Answer: Alaska
-----------

Question: Where is it possible to stand with one foot in Russia and one foot in the United States?
Answer: The Bering Sea when it is frozen. (Note: Other times of year the nearest land masses are an Alaskan island 2.5 miles from a Russian island.)
---------------

I hope this quiz put things in perspective.

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ticketstub:

@boomshak

I'm certainly not going to disagree with you on linear thinking Americans. But I think to a lot of folks, their 401ks and the nest egg their living off of for retirement is even more clear and close to them.

There's a high potential for some serious inflation coming our way. And anyone over 55 is DEFINITELY taking note of that.

Also, and not to beat a dead horse, but re: the VP debate. I really think it'll be boring without any major moments like last Fridays, Palin will be declared the winner because she'll do better than she did with Couric, and we'll all forget about it by the time McCain and Obama hit the stage for the town hall.

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BOOMFAIL:

OMG! OMG! 30 point spread for Obama on Intrade. McCain is clearly within the margin of error.

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VivalaRevolucion:

@ ticketstub

may be you and your liberal friends will be wishing you would forget about the debate ... Because there will be one way for Mccain/Palin -- up up up and one way for Obama/Biden -- down down down...

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boomshak:

ABC News/WaPo: Obama +4
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
New ABC News/Washington Post national poll conducted after the debate (Sept 27-29) shows that John McCain has picked up 5 points on Barack Obama during the last week, moving from a nine-point deficit to trailing by four:

Obama 50 (-2 vs. last poll Sept 19-22)
McCain 46 (+3)

Obama leads by 4.8% in the RCP National Average.

According to the poll, McCain has regained the lead among key swing groups: Independents favor McCain by 3 (48-45), white women by 11 (54-43), and white Catholics by one (47-46). McCain is still holding on to 20% of Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries, while 70% are supporting Obama.

MAYBE MCCAIN WON THE DEBATE AFTER ALL?

____________________

ticketstub:

@Vivalarevolucion

We shall see, friend. We shall see.

____________________

KipTin:

The economy is bad for those who are maxed out on their credit, but not for the frugal.

The economy is bad for those who bought over-priced houses, but not for those who actually chose "affordable" housing.

____________________

KipTin:

Boomshak noticed, but most did not... oil prices dropped. U.S. dollar has risen compared to Euro. Not good news for those who like fast-growing global economies, but then that is an entirely new debate.

____________________

ticketstub:

When people are seriously talking recession (and it looks like there is a VERY good chance we're headed towards one), the economy is just bad. End of sentence.

Saying it's not bad "for the frugal" is like saying the economy is not bad "for the well off."

And lest I be called some crazy liberal moonbat here, I'm not arguing that we need to batten down the hatches and start goin' crazy socialistic...I'm just saying that we do have to acknowledge, when we look at this election, that a huge number of people are saying the economy is a main concern for them. And frankly, this bail out bill, whenever it passes, ain't gonna change that. Republicans and Democrats are going to have to deal with that, alike.

I don't think that's so crazy...Perhaps I'm wrong.

____________________

John:

For those interested the ABC/Post poll has a +7D (with or without leaners) party-id margin for LV model, and a +9D (+8D w/o leaners) for the RVs results. The poll does not appear to be weighted.
Last week the poll was +12D with leaners (+7 w/o leaners) for the LV model, and +16D with leaners (+10 w/o leaners) for the RV model

____________________

marctx:

I wonder if Palin-Biden will take the high road or are we in for a comedy show of each one pointing out the others gaffes. Lots of material to work with. I hope Gov. Palin uses the "I agree with Biden that Obama is not experienced enough to be pres. and that Hillary would be a better VP".

____________________

ticketstub:

@ marctx

To make Thursday night more fun, I certainly hope they go after each other's mistakes. It'd be like a sports blooper real. "Remember the time you tried for that free throw and you missed and it hit you in the face?"

But I doubt they will.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

Unlike Clinton, Biden Gets Pass for Saying He Was 'Shot At' in Iraq

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/30/unlike-clinton-biden-gets-pass-saying-shot-iraq/

"When Hillary Clinton told a tall tale about "landing under sniper fire" in Bosnia, she was accused of "inflating her war experience" by Barack Obama's campaign -- but the campaign has been silent about Joe Biden telling his own questionable story about being "shot at" in Iraq. "

____________________

KipTin:

On CNN today an academic economist says no matter what happens in Congress and the rescue/bailout legislation, the recession is upon us because of the big downturn of the housing market.

That makes sense, and living frugally prepares one for such events... especially if one loses their job.

I for one am looking forward to lower housing prices because they were unrealistically high and were responsible for huge increases in property taxes from reassessment based on selling prices. OK for people who flip houses, but not for those who plan to remain in their "affordable" home for a long period. Also the cost of building materials is going back down for those of us who are homeowner fixer-uppers.

____________________

John:

@Boomshak
Actually they did ask that question, who won the debate?, in the poll, Q22. 24% went for McCain, 38% went for Obama, and 22% for a tie.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Kippers- FYI The Bering Strait, the nearest point between Alaska and Russia hasn't been frozen over since the last ice age 20,000 years ago. Of course Palin probably wouldn't accept that, since she is a Young Earth Cretinist.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/b/bering_strait.htm

I guess you should have used a "lifeline" and "phoned a friend".

And Palin definitely said that Russia was flying into US territorial waters. The statement by the officials from Egerton directly contradict that. And these officers never even suggest that this is such an emergency that the "scramble" their jets. It's a run-of-the-mill identification-contact encounter over international waters.

____________________

ticketstub:

@ Kiptin

Absolutely...living frugally is the smart way to go. Not necessarily the way Americans of all stripes and politics have lived over the past 50 years, but still the right way.

And the housing bubble definitely had to burst at some point. But a LOT of people aren't looking to buy homes now. And a lot of middle class folks are going to be really, really hurt by this recession. Not only is it going to be the major factor in the election, but whoever wins is going to have a whole pile of bad situations to have to try to fix in his first year as POTUS.

And the most damaging thing is that this bubble left us with literally nothing. with the dotcoms, at least we had the internet. After the railroad speculation burst, at least we had transcontinental travel. Now we have...rotten mortgages? That's the scary thing to me. Normally when there's a bubble and a burst, we at least get SOMETHING.

I think it'll happen again down the line with green tech. We'll have a big boom of green technology and then it'll burst, but at least we'll be able to keep the technology.

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cinnamonape:

"People, Obama has EVERY CONCEIVABLE ADVANTAGE here and he is only 2 points higher than a tie with the MOE?"

Boom...as we have consistently pointed out to you...two numbers within the MOE are not a statistical tie. The MOE is a measure of 95% of the possible polls with the same sample size producing a set of results. Thus even if McCain improved his average by 1.5...and Obama dropped his by 1.5 (thus putting them within 3) the odds that these two would be in a REAL tie would be about 1/20. Right now the probability that they are ACTUALLY in a tie is something like 1/140.

____________________

Basil:

To be undecided in a race like this you've got to be either a) really dumb, or b) not paying any attention (just real busy maybe). In other words, you don't know much about the candidates.

That's what Obama has going for him until the election. People meet him, see that he doesn't have a tail, doesn't sound like a black panther, doesn't take time out to face east three times a day, doesn't want to rape your daughter, likes ice cream, and seems like a very smart, very calm guy -- all of which is true.

McCain? Cranky, wacky, impulsive, awkward, sick (and heroic 40 years ago). Evil? No. Presidential? No.

____________________

KipTin:

I am not confused nor did I get this information from Palin. The Bering Sea still has sea ice which begins forming in November. I never indicated that the Bering Strait froze solid so that one can journey from mainland Alaska to mainland Russia.

FACTS:
1. Alaska and Russia share a border. The U.S.-Russian maritime boundary zigzags down the Bering Strait between the Asian and American land masses.

2.Alaska and Russia are less than 3 miles apart at their closest point in the Bering Strait where two islands, Russia's Big Diomede Island and Alaska's Little Diomede Island, are located. In winter it is possible to walk across the frozen Bering Strait border between these two islands. At its closest, the American mainland and the Russian mainland are 55 miles apart where Alaska's Seward Peninsula and Russia's Chukotka Peninsula reach out to each other.

http://www.dced.state.ak.us/oed/student_info/learn/russianheritage.htm

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KipTin:

Don't let cinnamonape try and confuse you on the poll statistics. This is not a series of scientific experiments in academia land.

Each political poll is only a snapshot in time with a sampling error that indicates with 95% probability that the results are in this range. Many factors play a role. Sampling error is based on number of participants. Methodologies differ among pollsters. The temporal factor plays a part.

____________________

KipTin:

The most accurate poll is going to be on November 4, 2008.

But ironically, there always seems to be some factors that contribute to errors even with that one.

____________________

Ulysses:

Boom:

The ad may be powerful for Republicans, but given the 8 Independents I have spoken to over the past 4 days, it will miss the target completely. Not one of them has any interest in obscure references to McCain's (almost non-existent) record on finance reform, nor about Obama's lack of experience or supposed disinterest in same. Every last one of them is shaking with fury that during the two terms of George Bush, there was zero leadership vis-a-vis reform of free-wheeling trading and banking practices (supported and also championed, stupidly, by Clinton... who also brought us the train wreck of NAFTA). They will not be interested in the obscure argument in that ad, that amazingly wants us to believe that McCain was at the forefront of the call for reform. First: it's not true. And second: it's way too late to be trying to convince Independents of such things. Everyone knows about McCain's aggressive support of this president. That... and that alone... will be his downfall.

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burrito:

@Kip Tin:

Regarding the "border" between Alaska and Russia :

and your point is?

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