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US: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Pew-9/27-29)


Pew Research Center
9/27-29/08; 1,258 RV +/- 3.5%, 1,181 LV
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews via landline and cell phones
(release, topline questionniare, full report)

National
Registered Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 42
(9/9-14: Obama 46, McCain 44)

Likely Voters:
Obama 49 McCain 43
(9/9-14: Obama 46, McCain 46)

 

Comments
macsuk:

Ouch McCain

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boomshak:

UTTER FAIL ON PARTY WEIGHTING:

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25
Independents: 34

Utter, complete and bleeding fail. Stunning fail. And we thought R2000 with their 26% Republican sample was bad.

Stinking, rotting, putrid liberal bias fail.

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boomshak:

What partisan Obama supporter wants to justify the 25% Republican sample in this poll?

I mean, it is just disgusting.

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sunnymi:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged from the day before with Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead.

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macsuk:

Ras O 51 M 45 "This is the first time that McCains very unfavorable rating has exceeded his very favorable rating".

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The Dude:

All I know is Rasmussen has the big O up 6 for the fourth time in the last five days. And McSame's very unfavorables are outpacing his very favorables. BEE-YOO-T-FUL!!!

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "What partisan Obama supporter wants to justify the 25% Republican sample in this poll?"

Have you ever pondered this question?
May be it is getting hard for the pollsters to find voters claiming to be Republican. A large chunk of them might be claiming to be Independent!

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Mike_in_CA:

i smell desperation.

any way you slice it, the race is no longer close. Otherwise every single poll is wrong.

Perhaps the D-R spread is so large because Pew includes cell-phones. A new poll out today suggests that new voters favor Obama 2:1, and most probably use cell-phones.

Listen, boomshak, i wanna help you out here. There came a point in October 2004 where I knew Kerry would lose. The polls had been Bush +2-5 all fall, and I just felt it. You should stop denying yourself reality. It's going to hurt really bad on Nov. 5

:)

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Trosen:

Be disguisted at your own party. You can continue to call these polls "liberal biased." Or you can acknowledge the fact that fewer Americans are identifying themselves as Republicans, and more as Democrats and Independents. You guys just keep ignoring that fact and calling every polled skewed, as if on election day it will be a 50/50 split of D's and R's going to the polls. That's just not the case. Either every poll that shows a susbtantial lead is an "outlier" or people (including Congresspeople running for re-election) are running like hell away from Republican affiliation.

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boomshak:

Even though the sample in this poll is beyonf laughable, it along with the Rasmussen Poll confirms that the Obama surge has flattened out.

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Mike_in_CA:

Trosen:

Thank you! You said it perfectly.

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sunnymi:

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 9%

- Obama has led by 5% or more in six consecutive Diageo/Hotline tracking polls.

- McCain's advantage on being "more prepared to lead" the U.S. is diminishing. Two weeks ago (in the survey completed 9/16), McCain led 51-38%; today, he leads just 46-41%.

- At the same time, Obama's edge on which candidate "better understands the needs and priorities of people like yourself" has grown. 54% now say Obama better understands, while just 33% say McCain; two weeks ago, 52% said Obama and 36% said McCain.

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boomshak:

Statistical tie by Sunday.

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Commander_King:

Boomshak...I have NEVER seen anyone so desperate as you. You go to extreme lengths to claim that Obama is losing and you fail to accept that McCain is getting stomped. END

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obamalover:

Why do Republicans continue to complain about party weighting in these polls? It has been shown that Dems have around a ten point party identification advantage in this election.

Heck even political candidates running on the Republican ticket don't want to identify themselves as Republican:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008206582_apwarossigop3rdldwritethru.html

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metsmets:

MCCAIN
BOOMSHAK

John - he still believes! There's still time to switch VPs! He can list Supreme Court cases in chronological order, for Heaven's sake!

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boomshak:

@sunnymi:

As I predicted yesterday, Hotline +5 today. look for Gallup to be +4 to +5.

If not for the rediculous sample in the Pew Poll, they would be showing Obama +4 to +5.

Obama, with every conceivable advantage, remains 1-2 points above a statistical tie.

Pathetic.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "Even though the sample in this poll is beyonf laughable, it along with the Rasmussen Poll confirms that the Obama surge has flattened out.

At this stage of the race any candidate would take the lead Obama currently has with glee. The question is not whether Obama's surge has flattened out or not but whether McCain can rise again in the polls. If he does not then even if Obama's numbers come down to a 3-point lead come election day, he will get 300 electoral votes.

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boomshak:

Right, now, Obama loses a point and McCain gains a point and we are at a statitical tie.

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sunnymi:


More from Rasmussen:
--------------------

White women voters, a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago, are evenly divided between Obama and McCain.

Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama has nearly eliminated McCain’s advantage on national security issues and the Democrat is now trusted more than McCain on ten other key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

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Commander_King:

Boomshak hang it up......you're pathetic candidate and his ignorant VP are going to lose big.

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Unbiased08:

Boomshak, your party got two cracks at it and they screwed it up beyond belief. Just accept the fact that the national electorate goes in cycles, and this is a DOWN cycle for the GOP. It will be your turn again later. For now, it's the Dems turn. Just let it go and try to deal with it the way Dems have had to for the last 8 years.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "Obama, with every conceivable advantage, remains 1-2 points above a statistical tie. Pathetic."

This does not sound good from the mouth of a Republican after the 2 squeakers they won over the last 2 presidential elections.
A win by 2 points is still a win, right!

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

Even GW Battleground has flipped.....gotta admit that was the last straw....

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JCK:

"Right, now, Obama loses a point and McCain gains a point and we are at a statitical (sic) tie."

Whatever you say boss. I'm sure Bush really cared that the 2004 election was a "statistical tie," according to the Boomshak School of Statistical Analysis.

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Unbiased08:

Obama at 348 EVs according to rcp. If McCain can figure out away to take 80 EVs away from Obama in one month, then congratulations. He deserves to be President.

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s.b.:

Um, It's 5 weeks to the election people. So McCain's down by 5 points. that is not insurmountable in 5 weeks. It's not insurmountable in 5 days. The stock market crisis will not be front page news for 5 weeks. If Obama were ahead by 15% averaged on RCP there might be something to worry about, even then it wouldn't be insurmountable in 5 weeks. Jimmy Carter lost 27% between September and election day. McCain is slightly behind right now and seemingly coming back a bit, Yawn.

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Eternal:

As I remind the boomster every day. The statistical tie argument is not a one way street. It's just as likely that Obama really leads by 9 in Rasmussen, 8 in Dieago, 8 in ABC, 12 in KOS and 9 in Gallup.

MOE +/- 3 does not mean subtract 3 from the person leading the if you don't like them as the boomster seems to do every day.

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1magine:

Damn BO and his f-in advantages!!! Cursed - that he is right on the economy. That lucky little bastard was and remains right on Iraq/ Afghanistan. And now it turns out ....HE'S BLACK. That's right, this son of a b-, also gets the built in advantage of being black and being able to easily carry states like IO, CO, FL, PA, etc... What more could he get.

He had all the advantages of growing up the son of an admiral and politically connected - what? -oops sorry wrong bio.

But I mean he has the benefit of all these left leaning pollsters like Rasmussen, Gallup and Q to help keep energy...what now? They lean right you say? Oh, well then he has the advantage of ....

Large donors all those hge numbers of wealthy people and corporate lobbyists-- - oh for God sake what is it now? His campaign is funded more than 85% by donations under $200.00. Really? The first time in American history you say. Well - he's advantaged all right. I'll have to get back to you on a specific example - - yes I'll bring an example of JM helping to regulate the markets, and a specific newspaper ...

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Eternal:

@s.b.

Not so yawn, name and incumbent party that came back from -5% in October in the last 40 years. ....

Heck name any canidate that came back from -5% in October except Regan, and McCain is no Regan.

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Mike_in_CA:

haha, you know it's bad when McCain down by 5 is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR McCAIN!


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mysticlaker:

Boom-idiot does not understand when ALL the polls show acandidate leading, there is a significant ADVANTAGE to that leading candidate. That candidate is Obama. It was McCain a few weeks

If polls were all over the place either in favor/out of favor for your candidate, then his arguments of MOE / party weighting might mean something. When ALL the polls show THE SAME thing (Obama up probably by 4-7 points), he becomes much like Palin - incoherent, and maybe an idiot.

Boom, spend some time on fivethirtyeight.com and learn about polling...

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jamesia:

It was never so much an Obama surge as a McCain collapse. If you look at the trendline on RCP, it's pretty clear that Obama's surge is much, much less steep than McCain's collapse. I'm sure that will be spun into "Obama isn't winning, he just isn't losing" ... but we all know the net effect in reality is that Obama is winning.

As for party ID breakdown, I found this interesting.

http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/party-id.PNG

It's from Lombardo Consulting, as in Steve Lombardo of pollster.com.

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jamesia:

Just for a quick history lesson, I found it interesting that voter ID preference has never looked this bad for the GOP.

http://content.cdlib.org/xtf/data/13030/pr/ft158004pr/figures/ft158004pr_00020.gif

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PHGrl:

Boomshak "Obama, with every conceivable advantage, remains 1-2 points above a statistical tie."

last i checked 1-2 points ABOVE a statistical ties is a WIN

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zen:


Boomshak

I admire your "don't give up" spirit....
at least you can enjoy until NOV 4th...

So enjoy for 5 weeks!

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mac_1103:

"statistical tie"

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Or is it really possible to understand the nuanced implications of variations in demographic weighting and yet not have any clue what a 95% CI is?

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Trosen:

If the current map holds, here are the Obama paths to the Presidency based on the current "toss-ups":

Either FL or OH and NO OTHER STATES WON puts him over the top. It's possible, but I still think these stay red. Otherwise:

- MN, CO, and NH
- MN, CO, and NV
- VA and CO
- MN and VA
- MN and NC
- MN, NV, NH, and one other state OR subtract NH and add any 5 EVs
- IN and MN
- IN and VA
- IN and CO
- IN and NC
- IN, NV, and NH

I'm sure there are a bunch of others I'm leaving out but these are some of the main ones. So basically, let's assume the strong and light blue states hold for Obama, which I believe they will. I also believe despite their "toss up" status, MN stays blue, IN and NC stay red. That said, he has so many strategies to close the deal. Either:

a)Dump all resources into FL and OH and game over. This is a risky strategy because the Republican ground machines I believe will deliver these states red no matter what.

b) Go all out on the VA/CO strategy. He's got slight leads in these states. Might be the best scenario.

c) Close the deal in MN and then push hard in either VA or CO and close NH. I think MN holds blue without major resources diverted there anyway.

d) Work off the NC strategy (tempting with the 15EVs).. but that's risky. Hard for me to imagine NC actually goes blue on Election Day despite the recent #s. So what do you guys see as the best Obama closing strategy?

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JCK:

mac,

He knows. But it's all he's got left.

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kerrchdavis:

@JCK

It really is quite pathetic at this point.

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jamesia:

I think Obama will take CO, NM and IA along with the Kerry '04 states. VA might join the party too. I think FL and NV have an equally good chance of going either way. NC and IN are McCain's, but I'm sure the Obama campaign is having fun taunting McCain about them.

Expectations are so incredibly low for Palin's debate tomorrow. Even the tiniest, miniscule bit of comprehension by Palin may be taken as good for her. Certainly not a win of the debate. If she absolutely tanks, which is a real possibility, I think FL will go to Obama.

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Flashlight:

Did you see this??!

"Pew finds that 51% of Americans now believe that Palin is unqualified, up from 37% after her announcement... The gender gap in Pew's poll is huge -- 17 points among women in Obama's favor, and only four points among men in McCain's..."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/on_the_other_hand_new_polls_ci.php

Palin is sinking McCain.

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PortlandRocks:

Boomshak - FAIL.

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PortlandRocks:

From Quinnipac:

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

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carl29:

Time magazine is out with another poll showing Obama at 50%, ahead of McCain by 7%. Women are the reason, how about Sarah?

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gregspolitics:

I dont think Pew reweights by party ID. They just take the poll results as they come on that, of course, subject to MOE. What may be happening is that a lot of McCain supporters who are/have been weak/leaning Republicans are preferring to identify themselves as independents rather than Republicans which could help explain his 46-38 lead among independents in this poll. At the same time, some weak/leaning democrats who might previously have identified themselves as independents may now prefer to identify themselves as democrats.

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rosh400:

Boom: Pew is one of the most respected public opinion survey organizations around. Andy Kohut is extremely well-respected in his field. If you want to be in denial, I can understand that, but don't try to impugn the validity of this survey, especially when it is consistent with most of the daily trackers.

If Obama plateau's here, that would be fine with me. A five percent victory on election day would be huge - definitely an EV landslide. Clinton won both if his races by about 5 percent if I remember correctly.

Finally, I think most honest people would admit that all other things being equal, if Obama was white, he would have a 10 to 15 point margin.

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chgo1:

Very interesting numbers for Obama. I have to say that i am thrilled and I hope the trend continues. As far as the "women's" vote, I can say, being a white female, late 30s with a graduate education that I would stick a sharp pencil in my eye before I would vote for Sarah Palin. She has certainly energized the GOP base but rest assured she has turned off as many women (if not more) than she has solidified. My apolitical friends here in Chicago are pulling out all the stops on a national scale in terms of getting the word out about Ms. Palin and her reactionary views.

I.e. Defenders of Wildlife is running an ad in the battleground states about her love for shooting wolves from an airplane. Do you think that does not affect female voters? If you have not seen it, visit their site, it is positively disgusting.

i.e. According to the New York Times, Planned Parenthood, as of yesterday, has raised donations of $800,000 in the name of Sarah Palin, to run anti McCain/Palin ads.

i.e. The DNC is running an ad about McCain's horrific record on women's issues and his steadfast refusal of equal pay for equal work.

While the economy remains front and center, don't think for a second that many women are not paying attention to these other issues.

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cinnamonape:

boomshak~ There was no "weighting" in this poll (it isn't Rassmussen). The actual Party Preference question is asked on #48-49 of PEWs survey. That's where they get the party identification...but they are not "weighting" the poll by this.

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/456.pdf

If you look there has been a major shift in voter identification to Democrats (and lean Democrat) over the last 2-3 years. That's why the Republicans lost so many of the midterm elections...even in the "Red" South.

McCain-Palin and Bush are doing nothing to help that trend. Neither are you. You guys should have gone with a real moderate...if you could even find one in the party anymore (Arnold, sadly, is ineligible).

What we have here is a case of "denial"

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cinnamonape:

Dear Boomshak (is that "boom" the sound of a head exploding?)...your "statistical tie" is actually a 1/20 shot. Nope, it's even worse that that...you are talking about the probability of ONE poll being back within the MOE to give you a "statistical tie". Here's the problem. There are now almost a dozen polls showing that Obama leads by 6%.

The probabability of them being actual ties (e.g. 47-47)...even if they all dropped to Obama leading by 3...would still be excruciatingly improbable.

Each corroborating poll has a multiplicative effect...increasing the likelihood their unified outcomes as being correct.

But "don't worry...be happy".

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kkpollster:

Hey all you incendiary people. Mclatchy just came out with a poll that had this at plus 3 for Obama. ABC, GALLUP plus 4 for O, and Isop-Maclatchy plus 3 for O. As we have seen in this bizarre election neither candidate seems capable of holding onto their lead. The ABC poll and Ras have some insights, post debate Obama's ready to lead numbers actually went DOWN by five points in both polls. And ABC showed Mac regaining a narrow lead among Independents and White Women. So Obama is leading for sure, but it is in fact getting tighter again.

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