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US: Obama 49, McCain 44 (CBSTimes-9/12-16)

Topics: PHome

CBS News / New York Times
9/12-16/08; 1,004 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(CBS story, results; NYT story, results)

National
Likely Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 44

Registered Voters
Obama 48, McCain 43
(9/3: Obama 42, McCain 42)

 

Comments
freedomreigns:

That's quite a shift. Obama + 6 and McCain +1. That is awfully dramatic.

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Wow...What a change in one week!! People are finally waking up!! Obama can win by a landslide in November!

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boomshak:

Oh Good God, are you kidding me?

CBS/NYTimes with Obama ahead by 5? Could their have their collective heads shoved any further up Obama's arse?

This is a 6 point outlier from the Rasmussen Poll conducted by two of the biggest Dem Partisans on Planet earth.

Fail.

Next.

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s.b.:

Yeah NYT enough said. Did Maureen Dowd call them all personally?

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JimGray:

I predict that this trend continues in the coming days.
The best thing McCain can do to stem is falling support is shut his mouth. The more this guy talks, the less convinced voters become.
I also predict that the debates shall prove this point.

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Justin:

An outlier from Rasmussen? What does that even mean? Rasmussen is the only poll currently showing McCain ahead. Wouldn't that make Rasmussen the outlier of anything?

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - There is, generally speaking, minimal evidence that a pollster's political bias influences their polling data. There's no real benefit, in an election like this, to produce false polling data - there's very little evidence that this is a "momentum" election, or, really, that Presidential elections ever are.

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NW Patrick:

Rasmussen will shift in the next day or two. You watch.

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straight talk:

McCain is in trouble! All he has left to hope that Obama is horrible in debates! And hope that Palin can answer media questions effectively and be found innocent in her investigation! Big ifffs! THose are his last options to hold off obama landslide! No dogs in this hunt! But i love the excitement of competition!

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boomshak:

Ok, just back from looking at the poll. What a JOKE!

Here's the PARTY AFFILIATION BREAKDOWN (try not to laugh!)

Dem - 41%
Rep - 31%
Ind - 28%

Ok, let's compare that to Rasmussen's:

Dem - 39%
Rep - 34%
Ind - 28%

So CBS/NYTimes throws Obama a 10 point sampling advantage to Dems? What, did they poll downtown NYC?

Lol, if I were them I would be embarrassed.

P.S., Do you noticed that every single hard-left MSM-based poll gives Dems a 9-10 point sampling advantage even though Rasmussen/Gallup say it should be 3-5 points?

Joke.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak - This is just the beginning. The tide is FINALLY shifting FOR GOOD.

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ronnie:

what's most interesting about this poll is that obama has opened up a 16-point lead among women....that leads me to believe that more and more women are beginning to question the integrity of mrs. palin and the judgement of mr. mccain.

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boomshak:

@Snowspinner:

"boomshak - There is, generally speaking, minimal evidence that a pollster's political bias influences their polling data. There's no real benefit, in an election like this, to produce false polling data - there's very little evidence that this is a "momentum" election, or, really, that Presidential elections ever are."

You are trying to be funny right? No advantage? How bout this - you use this BS poll to lead the whole news cycle and make your guy out to be an unstoppable steamroller. Dude, sometimes I rally have to wonder about you.

I mean, look at the polls showing Obama 4-6 points ahead: DailyKos, CBS/NYTimes.

Why don't we just publish polls put out by the DNC? Also, the sampling advatnage given to Dems in both these polls is utter rubbish.

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vmval1:

I think if the poll was conducted solely on the 16th, a 5 point margin Obama's way would be plausible. The spotlight has only come back onto the economy since the 15th - obviously, this was to Obama's advantage.

Given that 3 out of the 4 days of polling were before the latest meltdown, 5 point seems very very high.

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eugene:

the only way mccain can get back the momentum would be if a terriost attack happens,so dont be suprise if something like that happens in a few days

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boomshak:

Lol, you Obama supporters cannot possibly be taking this poll seriously? If this poll showed McCain with a 6 point lead you would be screaming about bad samples, false motives and God knows what else.

Go ahead and delude yourselves.

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vmval1:

@Eugene:

Given that the terrorists would probably prefer an Obama presidency, I doubt they'll be bombing anything between now and the 4th of Nov

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MNLatteLiberal:

@boomshack

Boom, gotta love the way you dismiss the poll with a "fail". Look beyond the wrapper and at the candy. The tasty nugget within: the CBS poll only highlights the trend of the nation awaking from the Palin daze. Palin/McCain duet has been sliding in all the poles for the last week. You were too busy shouting at us liberals to notice, but others on this site have highlighted the Mc -/Obama+ trends in Ras, Gallup and esp. all other left wing commie pollsters you dismissed (DailyKos, Diageo).
The point is, your batman and robin are sliding down the pole into the batcave of obscurity. And, as the prev. poster commented, every time John opens his mouth, bs inadvertently flies out.

And what about Sara? OMG! did you catch that Palindrome (tm)? On the Daily Show, Stewart highlighted her talking out of both sides of her mouth: "We need more regulation on Wall Street!" with the very next sentence reading "We need to get the government off the business' back!" I call this non-sequitor a Palindrome: when two opposite viewpoints are spouted by a candidate at the same time. When you read it forward it says one thing, when you read it back, it reads the opposite.
Way to go, Palin! Keep it up. Bimbo factor, gotta love it.

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Hope Reborn:

@ boomshack

Sorry, you FAIL

This poll has Obama doing worse among Democrats than last week (83-10 vs. 88-6)

The difference is that it now has him up 46-41 among Independents, whereas last week he was down 29-55... that's the swing here. The love affair with Palin is now OVER.

Apparently white women are finding out how scary Sarah Palin is.

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - I see +2 in party affiliation for the Democrats, -3 for Republicans. From Rasmussen. That's well within the margin of error and disagreement. It's perfectly plausible that two different polls could have numbers differing by that amount. Rasmussen does not have a lock on party affiliation numbers.

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boomshak:

ROFLMAO,

The more I read this poll, the funnier it gets:

1000 voters total polled over 5 days. That is only 200 per day!!!! What is the Margin of Error of this poll, 12 points? Nobody and I mean NO BODY polls only 200 people per day.

LOL, I just checked both publications of this poll. Guess what?

THEY DO NOT EVEN STATE THEIR MARGIN OF ERROR! Unheard of! A major national poll that doesn't state the margin-of-error? I've NEVER seen that!

Do it, go to the pol, and to the story about the poll and search for the word "margin", it isn't there!

Lol.

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Ryguy:

boomshack, i love the way you call this poll an outlier compared to the one and only poll that still has mccain leading (and that poll is a virtual tie). you claim that all of us liberals would be flipping out if it was mccain up by 6, but i wonder how YOU would react? im guessing you would be out here saying "its all over! mccain is on a roll!" your a homer, man, thats ok, but just dont come out here and expect everyone to think that youre looking at this thing with out a strong bias.

i actually agree that this poll is probably a bit high for obama, but its the sign of a trend, wouldnt you agree? or are all polls other than rassmussen outliers?

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Reality Check:

Mcpalin are finally being exposed as the frauds that they are -- they are screwed now that the artificial bounce is dead and buried--kinda like his chances at winning.

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ronnie:

the poll shows a slight Obama lead among white women...mccain was leading this cohort by double-digits not long ago....let's not question the credibility of this poll since the same poll recently showed a 2 point mccain advantage....i think by next friday, we could easily be looking at a 8-9 point obama advantage.

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cmbat:

@boomshak-

I keep telling you this. If you honestly believe that the R/D/I of actual voters is going to be the same as 2004, you are crazy. The Dems will add a couple of points. They were up 7 in 2004. This is the mistake Republicans keep making. They just don't get it.

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The weights applied to this poll seem to primarily weigh down registration. The party id numbers are virtually identical in the unweighted and weighted data (there are 4 fewer Republicans in the unweighted data and 4 more independents).

For voter registration, 88.6% (1004 of 1133) of the unweighted respondents report being registered and 83.1% (942 of 1133) of the weighted respondents reports being registered. For a comparison point, the 2004 Current Population Survey reported that 72.1% of the citizen-voting age population was registered.

Two plausible explanations. The first is that social desirability bias in this high turnout election is inducing some people to respond that they are registered (and perhaps by inference, likely to vote) when they are indeed not. The second explanation is that these people really are registered and intend to vote. If you believe the weighted data, that would put the turnout rate near 70% among the citizen-voting age population, a level we have not seen since 1908. Wow?

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BarackO'Clinton:

Man I love Righties!!

CBS shows a significant Obama lead - a liberal poll that can't be trusted!

Research 2000 - another poll showing a big Obama lead - liberal poll that can't be trusted!!

CNN - always leans left - do not trust!

PPP - more liberal trash! do not trust it!

ARG - crap (unless it shows McCain again).

Rasmussen poll showing McCain with a tiny 1 point lead - Now THAT'S a poll we can believe in!!

I love it. Keep em coming Righties....

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Ryguy:

good point ronnie,

i doubt that the conservatives were crying bloody murder about this poll when it was last taken, showing mccain with a lead.

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boomshak:

People, they DO NOT EVEN STATE THEIR Margin of Error! I mean c'mon.

200 people polled per day? DailyKos polled 362 per day for 3 days and their MOE is 5. Can you imagine the MOE of 200 polled over 5 days?

And then they have the audacity to release the poll without even stating that.

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boomshak:

@cmbat:

"boomshak-

I keep telling you this. If you honestly believe that the R/D/I of actual voters is going to be the same as 2004, you are crazy. The Dems will add a couple of points. They were up 7 in 2004. This is the mistake Republicans keep making. They just don't get it."

cmbat, 7 points in 2004? Lol, hell no! The exit polling in 2004 showed Reps and Dems TIED at 38 with Inds at 26. Where the heck did you get 7 points?

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - The DailyKos MoE is 5 points for a given day. It's 3% over the three days. I'd guess the MoE is similar here, but let's face it, MoE isn't really that important.

That said, if you read the "results" link above, the following sentence jumps out: "The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points."

That would be a MoE of 3.

Stop lying. You're even worse at it than your candidate.

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boomshak:

I have no complaint against a poll that uses a fair sample and weights it honestly, no matter where it comes from.

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Bluto:

"And what about Sara? OMG! did you catch that Palindrome (tm)? On the Daily Show, Stewart highlighted her talking out of both sides of her mouth: "We need more regulation on Wall Street!" with the very next sentence reading "We need to get the government off the business' back!" I call this non-sequitor a Palindrome: when two opposite viewpoints are spouted by a candidate at the same time."

Hey MNLatteLibera- Your post is brilliant

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carl29:

With all due respect "boomshak," I think you are getting a little too "worked up." Man, calm down. You could be right and by the end of the week this poll might look like a joke. Or on the contrary, it could be a sign of a trend that would, in fact, become more and more evident. Time will tell my friend. If I were you, I will take more seriously polls like Gallup, which without a doubt has been trending against McCain in the last few days.

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faithhopelove:

The 5 most recent national polls have Obama +5, +4, +3, +2, and McCain +1. McCain leads only in Rasmussen's tracker. He would not lead in this poll were Rasmussen using the party ID numbers he used last week. Rasmussen's change has masked a decline in McCain's raw numbers in recent days.

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boomshak:

Poll is a sham outlier done on an inadequate sample and a bogus weighting.

Keep in mind that during the same time this poll was taken, Gallup had McCain up by 1 to 3 points and Rasmussen had McCain up by 1 to 3 points.

Fail.

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ronnie:

agreed carl, the gallup has shown a seven point swing in about a week.

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Indiana4Obama:

Boom,
I understand the skepticism. These polls are pretty difficult to figure out. The last CBS/Times showed the race even, and many pundits pointed to a loss of enthusiasm in the Obama candidacy...especially among independents. So I don't think you can have it both ways.

Collectively, the polls seem to signal a shift towards Obama. But this all could change many times between now and November.

I think it's a dead heat 50/50 election that will depend on turnout. If Obama's ground game/organization is as good as advertised and those newly registered Dems vote then he wins. If that's all been overstated, then he loses.

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cjk002:

It's just amazing how every time a poll shows McCain losing, the polling methods are attacked by his delusional supporters.

They act as if employees of the NY Times are actually calling people themselves. The polls are conducted by outside companies, and Democratic registration has been outpacing Republican registration for more than 2 years.

Besides all that, every other poll released today except for the Rasmussen tracking poll has shown that Obama has gained momentum, while McCain has stalled.

You people are just deluding yourselves.

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player:

This is a total BS poll. NYTimes is Obama central.

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ronnie:

i would estimate the obama advantage among women in this poll seems very plausible given other polling data ive seen (which is roughly a 13-16 point lead)...let me point out that kerry only won the women's vote by 3 points in 2004.

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metsmets:

Okay - I took the "left-wing elitist" CBS poll results based on a skewed population (41% D 31% R 28% I) and then converted its voting to the weightings of party support used by Rasmussen, much admired by rightwingers posting here. (39% D 34% R 28% I)

OBAMA 47.3
MCCAIN 44.6

PASS!!!

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sempervirens:

Hey Boomshak -- read the actual poll report. Bottom of page 7 gives a sampling error is +/- 3% for the entire sample, and acknowledges larger error for subgroups.

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d3nnisbest:

@boomshak

Geez, give it up troll. Dismissing polls based solely on who commissioned them is hackery. I know you Republicans don't believe in science, but would you please put a sock in it.

Fact is, the final poll on November 4 is the only one that counts. But, based on the trends I'm seeing here, McCain's chances are fading. Wishing otherwise won't change that.

Here's the deal. McCain got a bounce from a misguided but thoroughly gutsy VP pick. He'll win the South and probably even win Ohio. As many of the smart commenters here predicted, he sliding back down the hill. Mondale-Ferraro were ahead of Reagan in 1984... I think we know how that turned out.

Here's the deal. Obama just needs to hang on to Michigan, win Colorado, and then either get NH or NM. You can't possibly think that the odds are AGAINST this. And if he can get FL or OH, well, then it's over before Letterman comes on. Even a non-scientist like yourself can deny the likelihood of this scenario.

McCain can win if Obama loses the first debate or gets caught picking his nose or molesting a child in the second or third debates. (The VP debate is pointless in terms of shifting momentum. Did Bentson crushing Quayle help Dukakis?)

Barring a surprise, this thing is looking like Clinton vs. Obama did after Super Tuesday. The smart folks know it's over and the media and diehards will get it... eventually.

But please, in the meantime, for all of our sakes, please refrain from attacking or dismissing poll results before you've even tried to analyze them with that pea-sized brain of yours. You did that here.

PS -- And when this over on November 5th and you trolls move on to screaming voter fraud or whatever, I would encourage you place the blame squarely where it belongs... at the feet or your beloved W. You don't get FDR without a Hoover... and you don't get a black liberal in the White House without an incompetent cowboy. Yeehaw!

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bmcavan:

Some salty repugs on this message board...lol.

I would advise both sides not to get cocky because that side will be the one that loses.

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thereisnospoon:

@boomshak,

Boom, Dems had about a 3-5 point voter turnout advantage back in 2004. This year it's increasing. It may not go all the way up to the 10 points predicted here by CBS/NYTimes and dKos/R2K, but it's going to be at least 7-8. Dem voter registrations are utterly swamping GOP registrations, and there's also the enthusiasm factor. True, GOP enthusiasm went up after Palin and reached a peak right after the convention, but it's still dwarfed by Dem enthusiasm.

Dems have more registrations, more feet on the ground, and more intensity of support. The only question is whether that's good for 3 points or for 5 points ahead of 2004. If it's 5 points, the election will be over. If it's 3 points, it might be close, but McCain will have to hold the line everywhere by tight margins.

Barring a flub by Obama in the debates, McCain's chances of winning are around 20% or so.

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TulliusCimber:

cjk002 -- I love folks like player and boomshak. It's all black and white for them. Either you're with them or you're with the terrorists.

Boomshak -- I've been reading your responses for a few weeks now, and I think you should save yourself and us a lot of time. Just have two responses in a word document.

One is:

OOooooo look at that hot McCain poll -- die libs die!!

The other is:

Sorry -- this poll is obviously biased, coming from a MSM source besides Fox News and or the Washington Times. It is .1 percent off the actual party registration of the entire country. Fail.

Then -- just copy and paste the appropriate response.

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bmcavan:

Also, rasmussen and CBS/NyTimes have similar house effects but going in the opposite direction.

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zoom:

Two basic points:

1) The CBS poll does report a margin of error (sorry boomshak, you are incorrect) at the end of the story it states a MOE as +/- 3 for the top line results. MOE does not depend on the number of calls made in a particular night but rather the total number of calls.

2) Pollster's current national trend is Obama +1.9 (just a couple of days ago, McCain was ahead). In a fast moving situation, this trend number is likely to understate the extent of the movement in a particular direction, so Obama may be up by more, but let's assume it is 1.9. So if they at true, then Rasmussen is -3 and CBS is +3 from the actual results, a very reasonable posibility, given MOE.

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player:

@Broomshak:
You are correct. This poll is only trying to minimize the effect of Palin. The NYTimes is becoming unbelievable. They are so biased that their columnists lean left when they walk. I think that the NYTimes building will probably become Americas version of the leaning tower of Pisa. That is unless a Bill Ayers Neo-terrorist doesn't bomb it first.

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Ryan in MO:

Alright... Time for Countdown

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Ryguy:

player,

if this poll is SO biased, why did it show mccain up by 2 last time it was taken?

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Whitetower:

Validity problems again, this time related to oversampling of Democrats: 30% of respondents were Republicans, 40% Democrats. No other crosstabs, but I'm betting that women are probably oversampled as well

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change:

@ player

you and boomshak are really dumb folks for accusing the media of bias open your mouth:
John mcsame: 100+ lobbyist in his camp agreed with bush 90% of the time, biggest de-regulator in congress,- now we face an economic hell because of it! - so how do you expect the media to give mccain a good looking image- retard!

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - You're lying. They state their margin of error as 3% in the report. I quote: "The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points."

Also, the DailyKos MoE is 5% on single day results - it's 3% over the three days.

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illinoisindie:

Rasmussen will begin to come around this week. Just add about 2% to Obama numbers for the rasmussen "house effects". All these trackers suggest is movement in Obama's direction and as one astute poster mentioned earlier, I would definitely rather be Obama's with a tie going into election day... That equates to advantage Obama.

@Boomshak,
so looking at this data objectively and considering all of the polls coming out today what do you conclude

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Paul:

Although you can not see cross-tabs, working backwards the split is 46 (M), 54 (F) which was the exit poll split in 2004.

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Ryguy:

definite sign of a trend in obamas favor. in my opinion 3 things have caused the shift.

1. the honeymoon period is over for palin. the reports about her are no longer being viewed by the majority as attacks. simply, the more that comes out about her, the less popular she becomes. her stock has been plummeting recently for multiple reasons, one of which is that she is in many ways a frightening person, and another reason segways into my next over all reason that this shift is happening.

2. There is too much overwhelming evidence that mccain and palin have simply been lying in order to make their rhetoric sound stronger. what mccain fails to realize, which karl rove DID realize, is that we live in an instant media age. you cant just say things that are factually untrue. rove was good at distorting the truth, but this campaign says things that are completely dishonest, and really cant defend it when its been exposed.

3. The economy... as much as mccain acts as though he wants to have this conversation, he doesnt. its clear that most people believe obama would better handle the economy. now that its become the meat and potatos issue of the election, we're on obama's turf now. republicans have an easier time winning elections when security is the biggest issue, not when the economy is on the line.

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boomshak:

@illinoisindie:

I think that over the last week, McCain has done the equivalent of throwing an interception in the endzone after an impressive drive.

The "abortion" and "lipstick" ads were just silly. They overplayed the sexism card. They chose a hard-core liberal newsman in Gibson to do Palin's first interview. They failed to put out the kinds of ads that can win this thing despite there being a wealth of available material.

add to this that I can about promise you no one in this forum can point to a single negative story in the MSM about Barack Obama for 2 weeks and about 500 stories a day attacking McCain/Palin and I'm frankly surprised the bleeding is not worse.

In every single poll (except the CBA/NYTimes/DailyKos cabal) this is a race in the margin of error. In all those polls, Obama has not been increasing, McCain has been decreasing. Obama is stuck at 47.

No matter, as I have stated before, no Democrat has gotten more than 50% of the vote in the last 30 years. That is because this is a center/right country. When it gets down to brass tacks, will a center/right country turn the keys of the city over to liberals with an untried leader at the helm? Will we grant absolute power to the Hollywood Left in all branches of government?

I think the answer is no and that may be what this all comes down to.

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player:

You Obamaphiles have got to stop it with the name calling. It isn't nice. You can actually blog without retorting to calling people names. You know Muth** F**k!! doesn't have to come out of you mouth on every third word that you speak unless its your culture. You are only hurting yourself. Remember the situation with Moses and the Pharaoh? Look out.

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kerrchdavis:

lol @ Player

Let me guess. Paul begala did this poll too. In fact, the only poll Paul Begala does NOT do is Fox Rasmussen, right?

When Rasmussen flips later this week, you'll be accusing lefties of hijacking that too.

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boomshak:

People, the 800 lbs gorilla in the room on this whole election has little to do with Obama or McCain.

"Will a center/right country grant absolute power over all branches of government to liberals?"

That is the question. After all the ads and all the debates and all the polls, THAT is what it will come down to. If McCain is smart, he will realize that andf start running ads about it right now.

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carl29:

In my opinion, Palin was a good story for a couple of days, the novelty; however, as time has gone by, it seems that people are having second thoughts. That was exactly what I was refering to the other day. Time will tell if Palin stays as an asset to the campaign or turns into a liability.

Just imagine how will the McCain ticket look right now if he had chosen Mitt Romney. Don't you think that in this economic downturn Romney could be the reassuring voice for the nervious American voters? According to Gallup, there has been movement in favor of Obama now that the news are all about the economy. Again, Time will tell. But my sense is that Palin-mania already picked, and voters don't seem too impressed with her depth of the issues.

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vmval1:

I'm not entirely certain what is happening on the RCP electoral map... they've got McCain winning Delaware and Rhode Island...

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boomshak:

P.S., Apparently InTrade is discounting these CBS/NYTimes/DailyKos polls as well. They have this thing dead even.

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player:

This is just the millionaires and billionaires of show business making noise because of unsound investments they lost a lot of money with these financial giants. We know that Barack Obama is such an innocent lamb that he can't possibly be blamed for any of this so McCain is the go to guy. As a matter of fact, you won't be able to find anything that Obama has ever done to blame him for. McCain supporters are just laying low until the hot air subsides.

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boomshak:

Let me ask you Obama people a question?

Why is Obama stuck at around 47% despite absolutely perfect media coverage? I mean, can anyone cite a negative media comment about him in the last two weeks?

The only one I have seen is "he isn't beating up the Republicans enough!"

In the history of politics, has there ever been a race where 1 candidate gets 100% positive coverage while the other candidate gets 100% negative coverage and the thing is statistically a tie (RCP Average)?

Lol, it's funny and I am trying really hard to think of this, but I honestly cannot recall a single negative story about Obama in over a month. Can you? Anyone?

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BOOMISANIDIOT:

Oh NOes McCain is losing....

Hey you know why Palin thinks people lived with dinosaurs? Because McCain was there and told her so.

McCain = Fail

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player:

The fact that one of Hillary's hill raisers and member of the democrat platform committee has endorsed McCain just shows what rational people think of Obama's fitness to be president. I expect more to follow while others think this way but go about their business without saying it.

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carl29:

If I were in the McCain campaign, I will worry about Independents. This poll is showing Obama leading among them; however, right after the Republican convention it was McCain the leader among this group. Partisan voters most probable will stay with the party, but Independents are a real fight.

In 2004 Bush won the election by 2%, spliting Independent voters 49% vs. 48% with Kerry. If Obama becomes the favorite among those voters, he will really improve his odds. Remember that with Independents is not about ideology, it is about issues and priorities.

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illinoisindie:

@Bommshak

Agreed: No recent negative press of Obama, but who's fault is that? Just like the Hillary camp, the McCain camp is failing in the execution of the "campaign". The messages keep changing... One of our honorable miltary men has put himself in the position to be called a liar without integrity. (Mostly McCain's fault). His surrogates are saying dumb dumb things on network like McCain cant run a company. He picks an unknown governor from Mooseville, who no-one is taking seriously anymore and has scandals written all over her. Seriously who's fault is the negative press.

And now that the economy is front and center... I bet Romney is off in a corner laughing somewhere.

This election should have been Change versus Experience... people resist change more than they do experience

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Justin:

ACTUAL Weighted RV

31.6 Republican
40.5 Democrat
27.8 Independent

Actual Democratic Advantage: 8.9

I like how Boomshack rounds 31.6 down to 31, but rounds 40.5 up to 41. Clever.

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boomshak:

There is a famous saying that I have always found to be true:

"The devil always overplays his hand..."

This is true. Based upon this, I think the Obama Campaign is due for at least one colossal F*U* before this thing is done to throw it to McCain.

We'll see.

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boomshak:

@Justin:

"Actual Democratic Advantage: 8.9"

Still a whacked sample.

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boomshak:

This Palin Interview is very impressive. Not to sound like a sexist, but DAMN she is HOT!

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Connor:

Boomshat-all-over-the-rug is right!

This is terrible news for Obama!

These tracking polls, the CNN polls, clearly you'd think "numbers going up" would be good for Obama. But that's just the lib-rallllll meadya playing you!

...

But yes, in all seriousness, there's still time for at least one more "momentum switch."

Here's the thing: if McCain's bounce was solely the work of the Palin-surprise, then yes, McCain will lose. I say "Palin-surprise" and not "Palin" because it's now clear that much of her warm reception was simply due to the fact that people thought it was all so "unexpected" and "neato."

But Palin's favorables are way down. And, what a coincidence: so are McCain's national and state polling numbers.

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StandardDeviation:

@boomshak...the 10 point dem advantage is consistent with other polls' voter models (R2K uses a 9 point edge, Diago uses 9 points, Ras is lower at 5). It's probably reasonable to assume the Dem edge is 5-10 points.

But even if you think the weightings are off, they're using the same weights as the did after the Republican convention which showed McCain up 2.

Said another way: pretend they used your preferred weightings. This would have given McCain a 7 point edge last week which has now evaporated into a tie.

So no matter how you slice it it's still a 7 point swing towards Obama and the McCain camp is going to need a game changer to move this back in their favor.

____________________

boomshak:

Well what we are seeing I think is that some of the "undecided's" that went to McCain for Palin are now back to "undecided" since Obama's numbers are not increasing as McCain's fall.

Undecided's are notoriously flakey so I am sure they can be swayed by the 100% negative media coverage on her.

____________________

Timmeh:

Here's a good rule of thumb: As the economy gets worse, either Obama's numbers will rise in the polls, McCain's will decrease, or both. We've been seeing this for the past several days, as it seems that McCain's convention bounce has diminished almost completely.

____________________

player:

I just watched Sarah Palin's interview with Sean Hannity. I am impressed. She has really learned since she has been in the executive position of government. She is very knowing of investments, taxes, etc. Biden with all of his experience is up against it here.

____________________

boomshak:

As a voter, should I really expect anything unbiased to come out of NYTimes or DailyKos? I mean c'mon.

NYTimes had 6000 words attacking Sarah palin this weekend and nothing attacking Obama.

Sorry, can't be that gullible.

____________________

Anti-Resmuglicrook:

@boomshak

I visit this site often but, thanks to you I had to make an account to throw in my 2 cents.

I admire your passion for your candidate, but do not accuse those with similar passion for their candidate of picking and choosing when you decide to ignore facts and lie in your post about the poll when we can scroll up to the top and see the FACTS.

You said: "People, they DO NOT EVEN STATE THEIR Margin of Error! I mean c'mon.

200 people polled per day? DailyKos polled 362 per day for 3 days and their MOE is 5. Can you imagine the MOE of 200 polled over 5 days?"

IF you would scroll up to the top of the page it says:

"CBS News / New York Times
9/12-16/08; 1,004 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews"

Seems if I read that the way I read ALL other poll info, that the margin is 3% JUST 1% more than the glorious golden child RAS. It is possible that this poll is really O-46 M-47 which is the extreme of +/-3... but its just as likely as it is reported here and ALSO just as likely as RAS is sitting at O-49, M-46 instead of O-47, M-48. SOOO, its still tied(ish) but swinging hard towards rationality. Thanks for listening all.

____________________

marctx:

For the first time I find myself agreeing with Lou Dobbs. I am disgusted with both of these candidates playing politics in a time of crisis. Making jokes about good old boys and the definition of fundamentals. No one with real solutions. I say let the thing crash and everyone take their medicine. I don't want my taxes going to bailout people that bought houses they couldn't afford.

____________________

boomshak:

During tough economic times, will America elect a President who will raise taxes on small business owners to 56%?

____________________

macsuk:

Player
You actually watched Hannity interview someone? HA HA HA HA HA HA

____________________

StandardDeviation:

Here's the big swing from a week ago:

White men (now) 36% 54 (last week) 40% 52
White women (now) 47% 45 (last week) 34% 53

While white men are coalescing toward McCain, white women voters seem particularly winnable by either side...a 21 point swing in one week seems high...but could simply suggest that a good chunk of white women were initially swayed by the Palin pick. A similar short-lived bounce was observed on the Dem side back when Feraro was the VP pick.

____________________

player:

The politicians now have zeroed in on home values going down to use as cannon fodder to feed the faithful. However, they forget to mention that these homes are grossly overvalued. Four years ago I watch a one bedroom condo go from 148K to 325K now. This was because of people taking advantage of the low interest rates to drive up home prices by buying and selling. Home values are as much as 60% over valued. Now it has to come crashing down. It is a mess. Alan Greenspan left the rates at almost zero for too long. Real estate speculation went wild. As soon as Bernanke come in office, he immediately started raising the rates to try to find some sound footing. Too late.

____________________

serpounce:

I here this media bias whine from both sides constantly, it makes me almost feel bad for the media. The only major bias I've seen in the "MSM" is towards sensationalism and the like, not left or right. They're out there to make money, not to shill for one candidate or another.

Now some outlets make money by shilling for a particular candidate like FOX news, and (more and more) MSNBC. But the Times? CBS? NBC? The only bias I've noticed is towards stories that will sell papers or get views.

I think there is something inherent in human nature that moves people towards thinking that "the powers that be" are out to get them. You see this on both extremes, both at Kos and Free Republic, they all think the evil MSM is out to get them.

____________________

zotz:

"I say let the thing crash and everyone take their medicine"

Ignorant- You should read about the Great Depression and President Herbert Hoover.

marctx- You are my biggest example of the dangers of an uneducated electorate.

____________________

serpounce:

hear

____________________

boomshak:

oops! Obama caught in full-blown LIE in new ad. Like I said, "the devil always overplays his hand".

Even ABCNews calls this ad a TOTAL LIE. Check it out and hold your nose, this one's a stinker!

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/from-the-fact-1.html

____________________

boomshak:

I wonder is the hags on The View will accuse Obama of LYING in this ad...hmmmm?

____________________

boomshak:

serpounce,

List for me 3 negative MSM articles in the last two weeks about Obama.

Now name 3 negative articles about McCain.

____________________

Snowspinner:

boomshak - Perhaps Obama hasn't been running negative ads full of lies and picking a woefully underqualified VP candidate in the last month, thus making it harder to write those negative stories.

____________________

player:

Barack Obama should know better than to try to take on Rush Limbaugh. Limbaugh isn't a McCain supporter. As a matter of fact, Limbaugh doesn't even like McCain. However, Limbaugh likes Sarah Palin, and he can make some noise that the public will notice. Lets see if he goes on a full scale attack. I expect him to.

____________________

serpounce:

Boom, for someone who follows polls so closely I'm surprised you would put faith in such a silly exercise. I doubt there is any scientific way to measure the bias of a news organization, which is why the debate is endless.

Your request also reminds me of that excellent Steven Colbert quotation, "the facts have a well known liberal bias."

____________________

carl29:

I get the point with this ad. I am hispanic myself and understand what Obama is doing. He is opening the wounds from the 2006 inmigration debate, when Republicans were seen as the anti-inmigration party. The most beloved figures in the Republican/conservative idealogy, Rush Limbaugh one of them, became the #1 enemy of the hispanic community, along with Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Bill O'relly, Sean Hannity, Lou Dobbs, Pat Buchanan.

The way the message comes across with me is: Remember how those Republicans treated you? Remember all the nasty, xenophobic things they said about you? Don't you think that it is time for us to get even with them? Don't you think that it is time to make them pay for that humiliation? Will you give them your vote, so they can stay in power? Don't you think that it is time for you to stand up?

*I really get.

____________________

boomshak:

@Snowspinner,

No, he was just busy violating the Logan Act in Iraq, which no one seemed to find newsworthy.

Regarding NEGATIVE ADS, Marc Ambinder (no fan of McCain) has shown that Obama has run MANY more negative ads than McCain:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/obamas_run_more_negative_ads.php

____________________

IndependentThinker:

just released
New Mexico SurveyUSA 09/14 - 09/16
Obama 52, McCain 44

I think it's time for the GOP to forget about this state and move on

____________________

boomshak:

@carl29:

Too bad the entire ad is a lie, huh?

____________________

Connor:

@boomshat-all-over-the-kitchen-floor

"Articles"?

"Overeducated liberals" write ARTICLES!

Real men scream and rant on right-wing tv! And right-wing radio! And make up statistics! Like you, boomshat!

Hey, boomshat, put down that suspicious-looking-apparatus and read this: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,2066363,full.story

It's about how George Mason University (THE MOST LIBERAL COLLEGE EVER!!!!!!!) did a non-partisan study and found that, actually, there was way more negative coverage of Obama than McCain at the start of the general election.

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY IS A COMMUNIST-COMMANDO-TRAINING FACILITY.

____________________

zotz:

carl29-
I am glad someone on Obama's staff is thinking about Hispanics. They might decide this election.

____________________

zotz:

"Real men scream and rant on right-wing tv!"

Don't be sexist! Women can scream and rant as good as you can!

____________________

carl29:

Guys, the problem for McCain is that Republicans/Republicans sympathizers sounded very, very anti-hispanic. Maybe because in American mainstream media those issues don't get covered, but in Spanish media they are covered, extensevely indeed. The level of hate crimes against hispanics have increased dramatically since those conservative radio talk show hosts got involved in all this. Those people have done an unimaginable damage to the Republican party in the hispanic community.

If the Republicans want to improve their support among hispanics, they better start changing the rethoric against hispanics. Guys, that is not helping, believe me.

____________________

Connor:

@player

Limbaugh? Are you kidding me?!

Look, I know you're a little kid and all, but lemme explain something to you: when your hero is a fat, bloated, porky-looking drug addict who spews racist bile all over the airways to the dumbest segment of the country...girls aren't going to find that too attractive. Unless you're trying to date a friend of your mom's..then by all means!

But if you're not trying to date a friend of your mom's, you should probably keep that on the down-low.

____________________

marctx:

zotz:

"Ignorant", "Uneducated"??

I graduated from college in the top ten percent of the nation buddy. After hearing about the the second black Monday today, I checked my 401k. I don't have a high risk home loan.

I was smart enough to move my 401k to safe investments a year ago. I watched my friends in Ventura California get 500k interest only home loans and laughed at their stupidity. Now California housing is down 30%. So who's ignorant and uneducated?

____________________

illinoisindie:

I read the article... its not sound bity enough. If Limbaugh gets involved its gets even uglier for Mccain cause Limbaugh is perceived to be an enemy of Latino's. If they are smart they wont bite, bute hey if they want to add another character (Palin, Fiorina & Graham have lifetime memberships) to the sideshow... go ahead LOL.

____________________

zotz:

In three states, CO, NM, NV, Hispanics are a big enough % of the pop. to swing the election to Obama.

I say to all Hispanics, don't get mad at the Republicans, GET EVEN!

____________________

marctx:

BTW - I read today that my all three of my former Dreamworks bosses went to Obama's 30k luncheon. I know how you liberal think. Now that I'm living in Texas, I know how conservatives think. I'm a democrat and Clinton supporter, but it McCain-Palin this year.

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt. You are not ignorant.

YOU ARE STUPID!

____________________

Connor:

Brand-spanking-new New Mexico SurveyUSA poll:

Obama: 52%
McCain: 44%

UH OH! Lemme guess: "OUTLIERRRR!"

Man, it must really suck to be a young Republican.

____________________

PHGrl:

Boomshak,

try adjusting these numbers w/your precious albeit delusional rasmussen assumption...

and obama is still ahead-- 47- 43-- OUTSIDE the MOE...

____________________

player:

@Conner:
I have never heard Limbaugh say anything racist. However, I really don't listen to him. He does have a 100 million a year guaranteed contract for five years.That is a half a billion for five years work. This guy only has a high school education. Call him what you want. Hes still worth more than porky Oprah.

____________________

Connor:

@marctx

Clinton supporter-turned-McCain supporter...Rush Limbaugh-listener...wow...it's so sad and transparent that I don't even know what to say.

In other news, McCain has added SPAIN to the Axis of Evil! Ruh-roh, Renator RecRain! http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/217710.php

I guess we shouldn't be surprised: his favorite book is 'For Whom the Bell Tolls.'

____________________

Tom:

The main reason the polls are moving as of late are as follows;

1. $1,000,000,000,000 of wealth disappeared in the last three days due to declines in the stock market.
2. The current administration acting like socalists trying to prop up the banking industry.
3. Palin's newness wearing off with negative stories.
4. The fading bounce.
5. Aggressinve campaigning by Obama.

____________________

marctx:

zotz:

Thanks. Stupid is much better. Is Mark not watching these personal attacks?

Anyway, I'm Hispanic. I don't support Obama.

Conner:

What are you implying? I listened to all media sources when I voted for Gore and Kerry.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Rush is great!!!! This CBS Times polls was heavy on the dem count about 400 dems to 300 rep.

____________________

Connor:

@player

Oh, I guess "Barack the Magic Negro" was just some good ole fashioned negro-ribbin' on Limbaugh's part!

Tell me, player: were you by any chance an extra on the set of 'Mississippi Burning'? Oh wait, I forgot, you're a 12-year-old-child-whose-politics-are-informed-by-your-right-wing-bigoted-parents! And 'Mississippi Burning' came out in 1988! My bad!

And about Limbaugh's salary: Whoah, that's a lot of MONEY, player! I guess whomever has the most money in the world is:

1. the smartest
2. sexiest
3. most-righteous
4. most-correct

Remember, you don't salute the man! You salute the bank account!

But I guess that's typical of a right-winger. Big Money=porn.

____________________

carl29:

I don't know if you remember back in 2006, when hispanics marched on the streets of major US cities, as family and I did here in Miami as well, our "rallying cry" was:

"Today we march; Tomorrow we vote"

Guys, we were very clear. We wanted the government to help our fellow latino brothers and sisters, and if that didn't happen we would make them pay for it, at the voting booth of course. Simple, eh?

I think that the Hispanic turnout this year is going to be the highest ever. We got fired up in 2006. The idea of waking up the "sleepy giant" and use our power, our votes, to make the difference in this country. So, maybe that sends the message: We are people to be respected.

____________________

zen:


Rasmussen poll doesn't include cell phone users. they are automatic dialing system which is prohibited to call cell phone.
That's why in primary they alwasy polled poorly for Obama.

Check Ras polls in VA, NC, IN, OR and compare with the results.
IF there are a lot of AA population or urban areas or universities, Obama is far better than Rasmussen polls.

Rasmussen was only accrate in the Appalachian states like WV, KY. because there are not so many cell phone users.

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Whats wrong with the 'For whom the Bell Tolls'? I read it. It was a very insightful book. Hemingway did a great job with that book. It was written in a double language that was the trademark of Hemingway. Get a life Connor! No wonder you are an Obamaphile, you don't enjoy the simple pleasures of life.

____________________

Connor:

@marctx

Gore-to-Kerry-to-Hillary-to...McCain.

...hmmm. What happened there, I wonder...

Don't worry about it, marctx. I know all I need to know. For-real. Don't fret. Sorry to disturb you. Please continue. I'll leave ya alone.


____________________

greg in charlotte:

Forget the stupid national polls rigged by cbs,nyt,cnn. Look at he current electoral count. McCain now has OH,NV, and CO. McCain just needs one more state like MI,PA,VA,NM,MN,and is over for Balack Obama.
Bye Bye Barry

____________________

marctx:

All of you so called Obama supporters, did you contribute to a democrat this year like I did. Did you get your DNC contribution letter today and "Vote Democrat" bumper sticker. Well I did. I wrote McCain-Palin 08, Hillary 2012 on it and returned it in the postage paid envelope. At least I can get 30 cents back from the corrupt DNC. Like I heard earlier. I didn't leave the democrats, the democrats left me!

____________________

player:

What is an Obamaphile. Well, lets look at it this way. What is the definition of Phile? It means: lover : one having an affinity for or a strong attraction to. And of course Obama is Obama.
Obamaphile. One who strongly loves Obama; perhaps even overcome by jungle fever.

____________________

slinky:

the term "jungle fever" in this context is blatantly racist

____________________

greg in charlotte:

If I were a Lib I think that I would forget this pollster.com spin machine and go to 538.com and get the real electoral count.
Pollster.com is leaning heavy to the Libs. and not reality

____________________

Connor:

@player

Oh player, one day I hope to tell you how ironic this is...

Wait, player, did you read the book or just listen to the Metallica song? Anyways, well, if you actually cracked open the book, you'd find that it's about, among many other things, Spain! And fighting...Spanish Fascists!

So yeah, that's the connection I was going for there. But keep trying, player!

I'll try not to be such a player-hater!

You clearly are a "player"!

____________________

greg in charlotte:

what is a curiousgeorgeaphile

____________________

illinoisindie:

children...why cant we all just get along... sing with me....

"kumbya meh lord....kumbya!!!"

____________________

Connor:

@player

"One who strongly loves Obama; perhaps even overcome by jungle fever." - player

Okay, ****-off with that talk, okay? You can tease people about liking Obama and such, that's fine. But right there: you just gave us a window into an ugliness and hatred inside of you that none of us would like to see here.

Call Obama a commie, hell, call him a terrorist-sympathizer. But leave the disgusting racist crap out of it.

Really gross.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

Bottom Line white people will not allow obama to win. Thats all you really need to know if you are trying to predict a winner.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

i doubt player cares about your pissy little man comments

____________________

illinoisindie:

@ greg

Wow... the same white people from Iowa you must be talking about...
Okay the abysmal conversation begins now... Im going to bed... se y'all in the mornin

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Really, was that Obama's cave that Robert Jordan went into? What did he find? Did he find fascism or racism in that cave? Were there two women in there or just one? Why did Jordan teach his illiterate helper the Roman Numeral system? You missed it Connor. I am surprised at you. I expected more from an intelligent Obamaphile. I mean no one really wanted to read about fascism in Spain did they? Why not wait for the Bull fights.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

who the hell cares about iowa.....now go to bed before you get your feelings hurt

____________________

carl29:

greg in charlotte: I am totally appalled by such an offensive comment. As a minority myself, I really take offense. From now on I am not longer interested in exchanging opinons with you.

____________________

marctx:

Shut up greg:!

You are obviously an Obama supporter.

Player:

I know you for many months, don't give them stuff they can dust of the race card.

conner:

answer the question. did you get your DNC letter? obviously not. did you get Bill Clinton's last two emails? Let the adults talk.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

carl you are easily offened

____________________

greg in charlotte:

marctx I hate Balack Obama

____________________

player:

@Connor:
Is the movie "Jungle Fever" a racist movie? Newspapers use this phrase everyday to describe some peoples attraction to Obama. Touchy touchy.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

All of you libs are way to sensitive. I bet you are alot of fun at parties.

____________________

slinky:

OK, boys and girls, you are starting to tell the truth about your feelings. I'm OK with them coming out, as long as you acknowledge your racist comments for what they are.

Player, can you really dispute that your jungle fever comment was racist?

Greg in NC, haven't you noticed a little bit of a culture of racism in your fair city; and aren't you perhaps, just a little bit guilty of thinking like those 'rednecks'.

I live in a little redneck town in a state that is very dark BLUE. I know that many of my neighbors are racist. I'm used to it. In spite of that, there are plenty of black people who live just around our corner, so, it doesn't really matter.

But, to you two guys, who I just mentioned, if a black moves in next door (like my neighbors) well, maybe it matters a great deal to you.

Talk about it.

Let's see if you can honestly emote.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

I am a self proclaimed redneck ...so what

____________________

slinky:

And, how do you feel about blacks moving in next door?

____________________

BOOMISANIDIOT:

OMG I can feel the rethug hate...


Your tears are so tasty ...hmmmhmhm

____________________

slinky:

Look, nobody's gonna arrest you for saying that you prefer no blacks move in next to you.

Or that they date your daughter.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

I sell homes to blacks that tell me they do not want to live in a black neighbor hood. Racism is real and there is nothing anyone can do about it. I don't pretend to be arrogant enough to be able to change it.

____________________

zotz:

illinoisindie-
That is my favorite song. I don't know why people make fun of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3MiD_U4CHQ

____________________

player:

@Slinky:
It was Spike Lee's movie " Jungle Fever". He wanted it to be used as a racial provocation against whites. However, Connor did take it as racist. Maybe that was Spike Lee's intentions.

____________________

greg in charlotte:

my favorite to zotz

____________________

boomshak:

A HISTORICAL REALITY CHECK:
According to Gallup, in the last 70 years, the Candidate leading right after both Conventions were completed has won all but 3 times.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110074/Shifts-Last-Two-Months-Election-Uncommon.aspx

That means out of roughly 17 elections, the person in Obama's position (right after the Conventions) has won only 18% of the time. Two of those were Republicans beating Democrats decisively. The only Democrat to win was Truman is a squeaker as you recall.

To win, Obama will need more than 50% of the vote (3rd parties a non-factor this year). Democrats have only done that twice in 60 years and never in last 30 years. During the same time, Republicans have won more than 50% of the vote 7 times.

So can Obama win? Yes, but he will have to turn history on it's head to do so.

____________________

slinky:

ah, yes, real estate in Charlotte.

Charlotte-Meckenberg, as in Brown v. Bd. of Ed., 1954.

OK, Greg, here's my point. I was rude about it last night, but I'll make it as nicely as I can now, because I really would like you to understand it.

People hate what they fear. Dark skin is the basis of a primal fear in white folk. It just is. When first saw a black person, when I was 3 or 4 (I actually remember), I was scared, but also wondered whether they were 'chocolate people' out loud, to my parents. My parents were liberal but they lived in an absolutely segregated white suburban neighborhood, and my dad is a WWII vet, who served in segregated Army. So, they told me not to call them 'chocolate people'; not to be scared, and that the kids were people just like me.

I played with them. But, I was scared.

Later, much later, when I went to an awful and dangerous school, filled with hoodlums, nearly all of whom were black, I learned to hate. I learned to hate because I was scared. And, believe me, those kids wanted me to be scared.

But, many, many years have passed. And, many many different experiences. And, I shared some of those last night. And, I could share more. But, I would confess to you that I am no longer scared. And that a black family lives next door. And, that, although it would be a shock and take some adjustment, I would not be judgemental if my daughter were to date a black man. I just don't have that big a problem there now.

I just don't. I'm not scared anymore.

____________________

marctx:

Greg/Voice:

You overplayed your hand. It's to obvious that you are trying play us. Obama supporters that play into this are playing this same racist game.

GREG IS AN OBAMA SUPORTER TRYING TO INSULT OUR INTELEGENCE!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

slinky:

Oh, and one other thing Greg,

The world changes one person at a time.

____________________

player:

Yea Slinky, That was a good racist barb. A black man is going to date your daughter. Very good Slinky. You might want to look in your closet slinky before you go down that route. Just a word to the wise.

____________________

boomshak:

You know, I have noticed something about this Pollster website. Over in the "Latest Developments" column, the headlines run about 10:1 stories favorable to Obama and negative on McCain.

Either Pollster is showing a bias or it is just because in the MSM, there just isn't anything negative ever printed about Obama and the "Latest Developments" is just reporting that.

____________________

zotz:

That is what great presidents do- turn history on its head.

____________________

slinky:

My closet's a little messy player, but I clean it out pretty often.

____________________

zotz:

player-
I don't know if you are smart enough to understand this but some us ARE black.

____________________

slinky:

Here's what a friend of mine wrote me earlier today. She's working for Obama in two midwestern swing states on weekends:

"This campaign is driving me nuts- there is no sensible reason it should be as close as it is- the republicans have so ****ed up the country, we should win by a landslide, but never underestimate the stupidity and racism of the American people. do I sound bitter? Mostly just anxious."

____________________

slinky:

got it, zotz.

____________________

As I recall Kerry didnt bump up like this at any point after the Repub convention: Gut: McCain on slippery slope. Final score 50%-48%-2%. Too bad for McCain that Bush and Co. ruined the economy and the fiscal standing of the US Government. When McCain talks about the economy he sounds retarded. Palin is so bizarre that half the right wing (Brooks) are terrified that McCain will win. President Palin! Do you really think at days end that a majority of American's are going to trust her with issues of war, peace and prosperity?

____________________

The Democrats have at least a 9% voter affiliation lead among registered voters nationwide. This does not count newly registered voters and first time voters. The Democrats have been registering new voters in the hundreds of thousands. Republicans have lost thousands of registered voters in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

McCain and Palin have no ecomomic plan, and they have no plan to end the war in Iraq. They never talk about real issues because they have no new plan. McCain and Palin flip flop on the issues every day. I don't trust them. They are just more of the same. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

slinky:

Your recall about Kerry is correct. There was no bounce back after being eclipsed. However, Obama has a long, difficult road yet. The debates will be revealing, but so will the ground game in Ohio, Florida (florida has not been surrendered), Minnesota, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, and, surprise, New Hampshire; not to mention Pennsylvania and Colorado.

It is fairly clear that there is going to be an exhausting endgame plan. I have already gotten umpteen emails, and am getting pressure from my friends! (I am in my fifties kids, and my friends are mostly in their fifties), to work for Obama in spare time.

There are going to be more MDs, Ph.D.'s, and J.D.'s canvassing than anyone has ever seen before. It's fascinating, and just a little bit silly.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

The Indianapolis Star just released a poll that shows Obama ahead 47-44 in Indiana. This reinforces today's CNN poll which shows Indiana is a definite battleground state.

The Star is a conservative newspaper, so the findings may be accurate. I live just outside Indianapolis and can tell you that the ground game/organization here is massive. Plus, Obama is flooding television and radio with ads.

It's going to be a state worth watching.

____________________

shells:

The IN poll is true, here's th link............., it all over McRepubs

____________________

shells:

The IN poll is true, here's the link............., it all over McRepubs

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

____________________

Republicans=Ignorance:
____________________

BOOMISANIDIOT:

HISTORICAL FACT BOOM:

There has never in US history in a presidential election had an african american running against a mentally retarded geezer. So zip it!!! LOL

Ah this site is so fun to read.

Polls are stupid and so is statistics.

____________________

Bigmike:

Obama/Biden have indeed made a little headway. More than I thought they would. Everyone else has an opinion why, here's mine.

Back-to-back-to-back big headlines that hurt Repubs. Lehman, AIG, and McCain himself gaffing. If McCain can't do better than his recent statements on the economy, he is getting what he deserves. And all of the scrambling that passes for damage control. "Well, he mean't the American worker is in good shape," or something like that. Eerily similar to 76 and trying to gloss over Ford's debate statement about Poland being free. It all dwarfed what would have been damaging news for the Dem's with the embassy bombing.

Of course President's don't really have that much control over the economy. They are more than willing to take credit when it is good, so that leaves them with the blame for it being bad. But I hope everyone noticed Bernanke and the Fed more or less wrote an $85B check without asking anyone for permission.

Most of you know I am conservative and have McCain pegged as the lesser of two evils for this year. I admit I am disappointed by the latest news. Where is Biden's loose cannon mouth when you really need it? McCain better learn something and get control of Palin in a similar fashion. But first, he needs to get control of McCain.

____________________

player:

@Zotz:
Is you really?

____________________

player:

@Zotz:
I show nuff knows it now. Yes I dos.

____________________

tjampel:

@marctx:
"
Greg/Voice:

You overplayed your hand. It's to obvious that you are trying play us. Obama supporters that play into this are playing this same racist game.

GREG IS AN OBAMA SUPORTER TRYING TO INSULT OUR INTELEGENCE!!!!!!!!!!"

As an Obama supporter I think that, first off I speak for every other Obama supporter here in saying that ...thanks but no thanks...we don't want Greg over on our sideline. He seems quite happy to be part of team McCain's cheerleader squad.

He sounds like a lot of the redstate/freeper crowd that post on abcnews, in particular (you know, the ones who's keyboards are stuck in cap lock. He's just a little more direct and honest about his feelings.

Perhaps he's touched a raw nerve by stating what's in the minds of many, namely, that, when people go into the polling booth something will flash in their mind and they just won't be able to pull the lever for the black man.

What do you base your accusation on? Is it true that NO Republican thinks that white people will be reluctant to elect a black man as President? Is it true that on the partisan websites none post anything like this?

And..do you think he's right? There have been others who keep asking why we aren't factoring the Bradley effect here. Isn't that saying the same thing at a less audible frequency? (BTW, with IVR and recent elections of blacks in Southern states, the current wisdom is that there should be no noticeable Bradley effect; but if there are more people like Greg lurking who knows.

____________________

brambster:

Why are people spending so much time debating boomshak? Ignore him, there is nothing at all to be learned from someone that just simply spins everything, and clearly in a disingenuous way. He will always see things the way he wants to, and like boskop (Google that name), he thinks he is better than everyone else...kind of like David Koresh thinking he was the Messiah.

There's no reasoning with such people. If Rasmussen suddenly showed Obama with a 2 point lead, he would claim that they were part of the liberal media too.

Stop taking these nut-jobs seriously!

'Nuff said.

____________________

brambster:

And regarding greg in charlotte...

This is most definitely Voice_99/brutus/etc.

Let it be known that 99% of liberals disown this guy completely. He hurts his cause by enraging others. He exemplifies the things that Republicans hate about Democrats even though there are very few people that are actually as bad as this guy is. Having him root for your side is like having Lindsay Lohan's support for your campaign. No one wants to be associated with this rude propagandist punk.

You are disowned. For the last time, PLEASE GO AWAY!

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

boomshat wrote...
"A HISTORICAL REALITY CHECK:"

Historical reality check back at you boomshat:

Starting in 1936, if the Washington Redskins won their last home game prior to a Presidential election, the incumbent party's candidate won the election. If the Washington Redskins lost their last home game prior to a Presidential election, the non-incumbent party's candidate won the election.

That held through EVERY election through the 2000 Presidential election.

So what happened in 2004? Green Bay won 28-14. That should have meant that the incumbent party's candidate (Bush) would lose the election, right?

HISTORICAL FACT (until 2004) when it was BUSTED

____________________

player:

intelligence is spelled INTELLIGENCE. No insult intended.

____________________

brambster:

Regarding player who just said the following to zotz when he announced that he was black:

player: @Zotz: Is you really?

player: @Zotz: I show nuff knows it now. Yes I dos.

This is really disgusting. I've called player a racist pig before, but I really thought that it was more muted than this, but in reality it is absolutely over the top.

It's so sad that people like you exist. So incredibly sad. You are a sorry excuse for a human being. You are disgusting.

____________________

player:

@Bambster:
You are the disgusting one. Your friends here name call and use profanity at everyone who differs with them. Oh and what is wrong with what I wrote smart ass? Do you have a problem with it? If so why?

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

brambster wrote...
"Why are people spending so much time debating boomshak?"

I'm not taking time to 'debate' boomshat. Rather I'm taking some time to illustrate his inaccuracies, lies, lack of historical knowledge and perspective, and male bovine droppings in general. The more times I can call him on posting male bovine droppings, the more he can be shown to be an idiot (idiot used in the sense of 'an utterly foolish or senseless person'). Take away some of his cachet of being an intelligent poster, the less probability people will take anything he says as anything but the ramblings of an idiot.

____________________

brambster:

@Mike In Maryland

No one takes him seriously except for his own kind (twisted backwards racists and other foul types).

When you see someone running around the streets at night in their underwear speaking in tongues, do you have to follow that person around pointing at him explaining over and over again that he is crazy? Totally not necessary.

So why bother? Certainly you shouldn't give him, or others like player, boksop, KipTin (and her other ID's), and the rest of the people that are so ****ed in the head that you should just let them be (and there's a bunch of them here as of late). They post less when you don't reply to them, and they stand out more as the idiots they are as everyone else is having constructive and possibly even on-topic conversations.

____________________

player:

@Bambster:
Stop trying to be the RACE POLICE. It makes you look silly. Also, your aren't so smart that you can use a condescending attitude towards other bloggers here. Nuff said.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

player trying to state that some other poster is dumb? A poster whom I think has quite a bit of intelligence, who looks at the situation realistically, and tells us the situation as he sees it, without making denigrating racist comments.

player has sunk to a new low, and now is at the same level as niTpiK, greg from charlotte, boomshat, boksop, and the other lunatic-fringe posters at this site. That level is the lowest depths of the sewer just before it enters the (soon to be named) George W. Bush Sewage Plant in San Francisco.

On second thought, greg from charlotte is the closest to the entry point to the plant, and the rest are just upstream from him/her/it. Since most sewage treatment plants are gravity-fed, that means everyone is at a slightly higher level than greg from charlotte.

____________________

slinky:

yeah, right.

OK, here's the point: Most of the ostensible conservatives, who post on this board, have exhibited racial prejudice.

What you need to do to understand this election is to multiply their numbers by the hundreds of thousands, maybe millions.

That's who's voting for McCain (in part) and that's what's frustrating the Obama Democrats.

It's very frustrating to be told that your candidate is not electable because of things about himself that he can't change.

If that is what the future of America is to be, well, then, America will deserve her future.

____________________

boomshak:

slinky,

Actually, it is lways Democrats who are injecting race into every discussion. All fo the Conservatives I know, and I know a lot, don't give a damn about the color of someone's skin. What we care about is character and competence.

The left claims Bill Clinton was "the first black president". Name for me 5 things Bill Clinton ever did for blacks? How about 3 things? One? Who had more blacks in his cabinet, Clinton of Bush?

The left likes to say Bush is a racist. Can you tell me of a single time Bus made a racist comment?

He has had two Sec of State's in a row, both of which were black.

look up which party spearheaded the Civil Rights movement and you will be surprised to learn it wasn't the Democrats. What was the party of the president who freed the slaves? What is the party of the recent Congressman who was a former member of the Klu Klux Klan?

Republicans aren't racists - we don't care one way or the other about race. Democrats are the racists, constantly bringing it up and demagoging the issue just to gain power.

I'll be looking forward to the extensive and detailed list of all the things Clinton did for the blacks of America besides "feel their pain".

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike in Maryland:

"brambster wrote...
"Why are people spending so much time debating boomshak?"

I'm not taking time to 'debate' boomshat. Rather I'm taking some time to illustrate his inaccuracies, lies, lack of historical knowledge and perspective, and male bovine droppings in general. The more times I can call him on posting male bovine droppings, the more he can be shown to be an idiot (idiot used in the sense of 'an utterly foolish or senseless person'). Take away some of his cachet of being an intelligent poster, the less probability people will take anything he says as anything but the ramblings of an idiot."

Gee, I have cachet? Thanks :)

Mike, I guess you choose not to debate me because my comments are not worthy of debate then, and not because you can't win the argument? Did you go to the "Al Gore School of Debate"? You know, "I won't debate you because they debate is already over" club?

Just think of how dull this blog would be without me here? What fun is a football game when only one team shows up?

Face it, none of us are actually "accomplishing" anything here. We aren't activists, we are political hobbyists, armchair quarterbacks, Sunday warriors. We do this for fun.

____________________

boomshak:

@Mike In Maryland:

"boomshat wrote...
"A HISTORICAL REALITY CHECK:"

Historical reality check back at you boomshat:

Starting in 1936, if the Washington Redskins won their last home game prior to a Presidential election, the incumbent party's candidate won the election. If the Washington Redskins lost their last home game prior to a Presidential election, the non-incumbent party's candidate won the election.

That held through EVERY election through the 2000 Presidential election.

So what happened in 2004? Green Bay won 28-14. That should have meant that the incumbent party's candidate (Bush) would lose the election, right?

HISTORICAL FACT (until 2004) when it was BUSTED"

Mike, you can't be serious. You are comparing some silly non-sequitor of Redskins winning football games to who is actually leading in presidential polls vs. who wins in the end?

One is a silly coincidence and one actually had a causal realtionship.

I'll just assume you were trying to make a joke there and not offer serious analysis.

____________________

vmval1:

Morning Troops

@Boomshak:

Hear Hear!

____________________

boomshak:

Morning vmval,

Let's give these libs a reality headache :)

____________________

vmval1:

I'm lib sometimes too. I just don't like libs that whine and gloat (alot of us) :)

____________________

vmval1:

I also agree that most of us are doing this for the fun of it and it has zero impact on the end result, so really, we shouldn't take ourselves too seriously - well, not here anyway!

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning

I can see whilst I was asleep the tone has definitely heightened.

It looks to me over the next few days that Obama will get to over 50% and put clear blue water between himself and McCain. All Obama needs to do is to be Presidential and appear considerate.

When the GOP/McCain mud and kitchen sink comes flying one word "Liar" second word "disappointing", "lets stick to the issues and do our best for the American people"

Obama needs to be concise.

Going into the debate with Rasmussen on the current ID weighting a 3-4% lead and up to 10 with the other pollsters.

____________________

shells:

Obama up by 4 (National) in Quinnipiac Poll- Change is coming. Guys if this economy continues going downhill, McCain will loose in a landslide.

____________________

vmval1:

Yeah, but chances are people will become desensitized to the turbulence of Wall St by the time the elections are here (as long as Wall St's woes don't hit Main St)

____________________

Timmeh:

I've got it! Marctx is voting for McCain because he is either racist or believes Obama stole the nomination from Clinton. Seriously, what possible reason could you have for not voting for Obama when you:

1. Supported Hillary Clinton

2. Supported Gore and Kerry

3. Apparently are a lifelong Democrat.

What else could it be? It's not experience, because Palin has less than Obama, and Biden has plenty of it. So, either marctx is just very stupid, ignorant, or racist.

Just my two cents here. =)

____________________

zotz:

For the record I never announced that I was black. I said to player "some of us are black". I'm not denying it either. The point is you don't know and nobody should make assumptions. And I definately would never vote for or against someone because of race. That is not who I am.

____________________

illinoisindie:

based on Quinn..looks like Rasmussen is the outlier, he might want to consider readjusting his weightings again...

@vmval1:
We are not yet in the bottom of the trough and it wouldnt surprise me if another bank failed prior to Nov 4th (Wamu) comes to mind...so the economy will continue to be front and center and if Obama is smart (understatement of the year)...he'll ensure that it is in all of the news cycles

____________________

vmval1:

@illinois indie:

I don't disagree with you at all. I'm just saying it mightn't be the worse thing for Obama if the markets have a mini recovery for the next 5 weeks and then collapse again on the 31st of October, as opposed to collapsing for the next 4 weeks and then recovering through the back half of Oct and beginning of Nov.

People have short memories with this stuff. Regardless of how many times and how disastrously markets collapse, you can bet your bottom dollar that the next time there is a bull market, you'll hear the catch cry of 'it's different this time'

____________________

riverrun:

McCain is in deep, bright red trouble.

Obama is ahead in 3 of 4 national trackers; ahead also in all of the three most recent other national polls – up big in the last two.

McCain & Palin favourable/unfavourable ratios are both tanking, as is the Republican enthusiasm level.

Heading into the debates, Mc is incoherent on the one topic everybody will be talking about – the state of the economy & Wall Street.

Pollster, 538, & RCP still show Obama ahead in all Kerry states, Iowa & NM. Recent polls put him ahead also in VA. These will be enough to put him over the top. But there’s more.

Looking ahead, momentum is clearly with team blue; the debates will extend this; Obama has the edge on money, and on the ground game, all of which will further extend his lead on polling day.

The only remaining question is how big will the victory margin be?

____________________

thoughtful:

What is happening is far worse that a few collapsed banks and a huge rescued Insurance company.

How about a couple of Michigan Car Companies collapsing?

The US has been consuming far more than it produces and much of the wealth that has been created over the past 10 years and particularly in the Bush period is illusion. whether in real estate or otherwise.

What is actually happening is a seismic shift of global financial and productive power from The US to the East and the Arabian Gulf States and Saudis.

With regards the election, Experience and TRUST was the big things that 72 year old McCain had over Obama. He lost his lead in Experience with the Palin pick and then being called out on the lies abuse at the convention and post convention.

You know the vast majority of people are thinking of Barrack Obama in the same sort of way that they think in terms of Tiger Woods 21st century American Winner!

____________________

vmval1:

@Riverrun:

You must be deluded if you honestly think that 45 days out from the election.

This is the type of election that could be won or lost in the day before it

____________________

vmval1:

@Thoughtful:

Agree with you on everything except your last point. I think only 47-49% of people think of him as Tiger Woods. :)

____________________

thoughtful:

vmval1 I have noticed that 1 in 4 voters who say they are voting for John McCain say they doing so to vote against Barrack Obama rather than for McCain!

So I think your number of 47-49% may be a little low, but isn't bad at all.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak
Have a nice day!
9/18 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Single day 50-42)

Looks like Ras may have Obama +1 or better today!

Quinn Obama 49 - McCain 44

____________________

illinoisindie:

seriously we need to see a Pennsylvania and an Indiana poll today... Anyone know if someone reputable is putting one out soon... Indiana star does not count

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:
Boomshak
Have a nice day!
9/18 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Single day 50-42)

You can't possibly expect me to take anything from DailyKos even remotely seriously? I'll look up the Rush Limbuagh Poll and give you the latest results, ok? Lol.

____________________

thoughtful:

@BoomShak

more reasons to have a nice day!

New Mexico SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Indiana Indy Star/Selzer McCain 44, Obama 47 Obama +3 Ann Selzer was outstanding in the Primaries - this poll reflects The Obama ground game!


____________________

boomshak:

All of these polls showing Obama up by 4 and more points have a few things in common:

1. Massive oversampling of Democrats.
2. Wild, impossible 15 and 20 point swings by groups, such a women, to Barack in a matter of days. McCain goes from a lead amongst Independets of 15 to 20, to falling behind Obama in a matter of days.

They are all pure BS folks, bought and paid for as talking points for the left.

Watch Rasmussen. As far as I can see, he is the ONLY one using a weighted sample based upon current realities and not some DailyKos fan's wet dream of party affiliation numbers.

I don't really know how Gallup does his weightings, so I can't comment.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

Obama leading in Indiana by 3? lol, what the heck are you smokin friend?

The RCP Average on Indiana for McCain is +5.

I am telling you, the MSM left-leaning bought and paid for pollsters are coming out in force today.

____________________

marctx:

Pa-leezze!

Donald Trump is a racist too???

Trump switched from Hillary to McCain...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13558.html

____________________

boomshak:

Here's what i find amusing. In 2006, Democrats took power promising they would shake up Washington, wash out corruption, keep down gas prices, create jobs and improve the economy.

Since 2006, we have found out Charlie Rangel is cheating on his taxes, yet still retains his position and Committee Chair, gas prices have doubled, jobs have plummeted and the economy is on the brink.

2 years ago, unemployment was under 5%, gas prices were low and the economy was regularly growing at over 4%.

And yet, and yet, the Democrats say NONE of it is their fault. Well if the Democrats in power in washington have NO EFFECT on what happens in America, why are they even there?

If Obama wins, how long into his Presidency will he still be blaming Bush for the bad economy? 2 years? How about 4?

____________________

thirdparty:

Got to admit, I'm extremely amused with boomshak's hysterical insistence that this poll is nonsense. He claims that if this was McCain +6, liberals would be flipping out. Well, from where I'm sitting, the only one flipping out is boomshak. He's made 33 posts in this page in the space of fifteen hours, all of them trying to reassure himself desperately that this poll really is absolute rubbish.

And just yesterday, when I ridiculed the way that the conservative commenters were panning the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, he insisted to me that they were attacking the small sample size of the DK/R2K poll, NOT the fact that Daily Kos is a liberal-leaning blog site. Yet today, he's off on these ridiculous rants about how the "liberal" polls are all showing leads for Obama, whereas the mighty Rasmussen is still showing McCain with a 1 point lead.

boomshak, say what you like, but you're sounding utterly hysterical.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty,

How can you defend polls that give Democrats a 9 to 10 point sampling advantage? Do you REALLY believe only 26% of Registered Voters in America are Republicans? If so, why isn't Obama ahead by 20 points? It's a non sequitor.

Does the TRUTH always sound hysterical to you? I think so.

____________________

marctx:

MOVE OVER, OLBERMANN, RACHEL MADDOW TOPS MSNBC RATINGS!

[AND SHE BEATS LARRY KING, TOO]

CABLE RACE, TUES, SEPT 16

HANNITY/COLMES 3,136,000
O'REILLY 3,060,000
GRETA 2,908,000
HUME 1,977,000
COOPER 1,828,000
RACHEL MADDOW 1,801,000
SHEP SMITH 1,724,000
KING 1,710,000
OLBERMANN 1,635,000
GRACE 1,166,000
DOBBS 1,156,000
HARDBALL 821,000

____________________

Bonzi77:

@boomshak:

I think you're overlooking an important point. The Democrat/Republican/Independent breakdown is based on self-identifieds. Since most people don't feel a written in stone affiliation to either party, it stands to reason that people who support Obama will call themself Democrats and people who support McCain will call themselves Republicans. So the party identification breakdowns are going to be dynamic throughout the election and not stuck on any one particular number.

If a pollster calls a representative sample of the population and gets more people saying they are Democrats, it's probably because that's how people are identifying themselves on that particular day, not any indication of bias by the pollster. So what happened is that a before the GOP convention Democrats had a higher self-identified number, but McCain won some people back to his cause. That led to Democrats complaining about sampling percentages; but then as McCain's bounce wore off, more people are floating back to the Dems, so the numbers are swinging back, leading to complaints like yours from the right.

So in short, party affiliation is a pretty nebulous thing for most people.

____________________

boomshak:

The Democrats have been in charge of the Senate Banking Committee for 2 years now. Can anyone name for me one single thing they have done to head this current crisis off?

Just one. Anybody?

____________________

thirdparty:

boomshak, you already cited the party ID breakdowns for this poll as Dem 41, Rep 31, Ind 28. I have absolutely no idea where you got the idea that this poll shows Republican ID at 26%. Secondly, Rasmussen itself was showing a 10 point advantage to the Dems a few months ago. It's not implausible. Thirdly, Rasmussen does not hold a monopoly on accurate data. It is fairly reliable, but certainly not the MOST reliable and it is not the undeniable authority. Fourthly, Gallup, Diageo-Hotline and now CBS show a lead for Obama. No-one can guarantee this poll's ACCURACY, but is not an OUTLIER. Fifthly, the poll clearly shows that Obama's support among self-identified Democrats has gone DOWN. The real gains have been among independents: Obama was down 29-55 in the previous poll, but is now up by 46-41. Now, I would severely doubt that he was really down by 26 points among independents a week ago, but that's different to the idea that you've proposed, which is that the Dem weighting is responsible for the supposedly wacky data. And sixthly, I just adjusted the party ID to 38-33-29, and it still shows a lead for Obama, of around 3 points.

____________________

The final shoe drops? Today's Rasmussen has it tied at 48%, and this is among the most favorable party id weighting of the polls. I suspect we'll get a partisan reweighting by Rasmussen on Sunday back towards the Democrats now that Palin is palin'.

____________________

riverrun:

Rasmussen, even with its Republican leaning house effect, now shows a tied race.

McC no longer shows lead in ANY national poll conducted this week.

The Indiana poll showing Obama leading was conducted by the pollster with the top grade in 538's pollster ratings.

____________________

SwingVote:

Boomshak

"The Democrats have been in charge of the Senate Banking Committee for 2 years now. Can anyone name for me one single thing they have done to head this current crisis off?"

Roots of this problem goes way back. Subprime mortgages started to be a problem before Democrats took control of the senate.

Come on guys, just accept your party's failure. Call it. Don't blame others. Deregulation and budget deficit due to Iraq war and tax cuts (both done in the name of small government) are the main reasons for this mess. The funny thing is we ended up with big government after the bailouts:) GOP is becoming more and more socialist for the rich.

____________________

FindCleanEnergy:

A friend of mine recently suggested that the so-called shift of like 20% in white women towards McCain might have been due mostly to the manner in which the representative sample was changed after the conventions. Can you guys, who appear to know a heck of alot about this stuff, shed any light on that?

____________________

tjampel:

@boomboom
"You can't possibly expect me to take anything from DailyKos even remotely seriously? I'll look up the Rush Limbuagh Poll and give you the latest results, ok? Lol"

Please do give us the Limbaugh Poll results. If he hired any reputable pollster (such as Research 2000) why expect that the results are going to be so far outside the MOE of the consensus of the last 6 (with Quin and CBS/WSJ added in). You think a pollster is going to stake their reputation and ability to earn money by publicly releasing a polls that, say, surveys only retirees in MS with confederate flags on their porch? You can play with party ID but only to a degree. I think the Kos/Research 2000 poll sets the spread slightly high (at 9, not 10% btw, please learn to read), but even at 5 (which is going to prove low in the coming days...it should be more like 7-8 right now) Obama's still up 3% while even in Ras; so it's kind of fitting that, when equally weighted these two surveys are within MOE of each other at opposite ends of the tracking universe.

Maybe you should channel your boundless energy into writing about why McCain is crash-landing his convention bump in every single poll that we have, especially Ras.

Suggestion:

Palin
Campaign and Stump speech/ town hall Lies catching up to him as they're being reported now
Congress #2 deregulation advocate (teaming with Grahm, his economic adviser as former #1) reaping the seeds he and Grahm sowed
Gaffes (this time the media IS paying attention, unless the 4 consecutive passes he got on Iran sponsoring Al Quaida)
Nasty personality starting to show through on talk shows (e.g. The View
Old media friends turning on him; Elizabeth Drew today, who had written about him so glowingly after his failed 2000 run.

____________________

thirdparty:

Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking shows Obama out to a 6 point lead (last night's sample was Obama +8). To the GOP supporters: say what you like about R2K's small sample size, but whether you think his lead is 2 points or 6 points, the fact is that there IS a lead for Obama, and the momentum IS going his way.

____________________

tjampel:

Whoops...accidentally deleted something there...meant to say that even in Ras we see the McCain convention bump crash landing (not that Ras has anyone up three...it's even with McCain dropping nearly a point each day

____________________

tjampel:

Sorry, another error it should be CBS/NYT, NOT WSJ; sorry

____________________

metsmets:

Serious question: When was the last time "white males" voted for a Democratic Presidential Candidate?

If you compare the white male vote in the last two CBS polls, McCaim has increased his share of the vote. Yet, he falls behind in the poll.

This raises the legitimate question: how did his selection of Palin help if the women are shifting to Obama?

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

boomshak:

How about the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007 that was written by Democrat Brad Miller of NC and passed the House, but was blocked in the Senate by Republicans. The mortgage and banking industries went nuts when this was introduced and used all of their lobbying power to kill it in the Senate. Sorry, got you again.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Quinipac Obama +4. Anyone know about this "battleground" poll? Shows McCain up 3, the ONLY poll as of the last couple days to show it. Even Rasmussen moved into a tie today. Also when I read into the poll, Obama lead on almost every single issue yet trailed in the poll. Insite please?

____________________

marctx:

New state polling data will be released today at noon, 3:00 p.m., and 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports will be releasing results from all 50 states this month. State polling has already been released this week for Wisconsin, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Which states today?

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak guess what? There are something like 12 million MORE registered DEMS than Republicans in this country at this time. YOU SHOULD be worried.

____________________

KipTin:

Today's Rasmussen: Obama 48/McCain 48

Yes, Obama has "gained" in the last three days.

But... "As for the political implications, polling conducted LAST NIGHT shows that 47% trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 45% trust Obama."

Obamanation and MSM are overestimating the "advantage" of a bad economy for Obama.

Further...."The financial crunch provides both OPPORTUNITY and RISK for the candidates. Voters are closely following the story but only one-in-four believe that either Obama or McCain is Very Likely to bring about the changes that are needed on Wall Street."

It looks like the voters are separating Wall Street shenagigans from ability of federal government to control them.

And...."Adding to the complexity for politicians everywhere is the fact that 49% worry that the federal government will do too much while just 36% are more worried that it won’t do enough."

Wow, almost half voters are worried about too much federal involvement. This might explain McCain still running essentially even with Obama on the economy "trust" issue.

P.S. My personal opinion is that Obama is still using too many words to get across his ideas. Yes, sound bites/campaign speak do work in a election. TWO-MINUTE narrative ads do not. Only Obamanation has that long of attention span for their leader. I found myself losing focus while I observed the background details (motel room furniture) and watched his eyes move as he read the teleprompter.

And blaming Bush and the GOP is only playing to his base and not to voters who are concerned with the here and now.

Note that McCain led previous efforts for more oversight/restrictions upon FreddiMac and FanniMae which Democrats protested because it would restrict loans to lower income people. So shall we BLAME the Dems now for this mortgage mess?

How about this silly archaic idea (and policy) of home ownership for every American instead? Maybe we should have a policy that acknowledges that with American plurality goes a diversity of residential-living options. We need to look at "innovative" housing rather than just "affordable" housing... the latter having become "unaffordable" with current policies promoting home ownership.

Source: My own words and ideas... not hype or talking points.

____________________

boomshak:

Rasmussen today has it all tied up. Gallup will probably still show Obama +1 or 2.

If McCain's ads are any indication, he deserves to lose this race. They utterly suck. I mean, who the hell is in charge of cranking out that steaming pile?

There are so many obvious targets to go after with Obama but Mccain keeps putting out the same mindless garbage.

Ugh, frustrates me.

____________________

boomshak:

@Napoleon Complex:

How exactly was it "blocked" in the Senate by Republicans? Democrats control the Senate! - duh.

If it was like most Dem Bills, it probably contained language calling for unconditional surrender in Iraq.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@boomshak:

Have you never heard of the filibuster? To get it out of committee, they would have to have a floor vote. The Dems couldn't get a floor vote, because it requires 60 votes to cut off debate by the Republicans. They only have 50 or 51 votes. Jesus, would you back to high school and take a civics class?

Besides, you asked for one example of what the Dems had tried to do to prevent the current crisis. Now, since you have no legitimate argument, you have to throw in this b.s. about surrending Iraq. Pathetic.

____________________

KipTin:

FACTS:
• In 21 states, voters do not register by party.

• 26 states with registration data show since 2004--
1. Percentage of Democrats has risen in 15 states.
2. Percentage for Republicans has risen in six.
3. The number of registered Democrats fell in 11 states.
4. Republican registration numbers fell in 20 states.
5. The share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states.

• Finally--
1. Voter registration does not necessarily indicate that these people will turn out to vote (largest turnout >60% for Kennedy/Nixon contest and last two elections around 55%).
2. Party registration does not mean that people vote for their party's candidate (e.g. "Reagan Democrats").
3. Independents will most likely decide the Presidential race. And since they are a diverse group, who knows what will happen?

Source: http://freeinternetpress.com/story.php?sid=17858

____________________

boomshak:

@Napolean,

Can you please post a link that discusses the filibuster by Republicans of this bill or are you just assuming they did? What was the final Senate vote count on the bill, hmmmm?

____________________

KipTin:

Uh..Napoleon Complex... To be picky and informative--- They do not have "filibuster" in the House of Representatives. And the Speaker of the House (now Democrat Pelosi) pretty well controls what gets voted upon.

____________________

boomshak:

VA: McCain 48, Obama 39 (CNewportU-9/10-14)

OMG! McCain EXPLODES to 9 point lead in VA! The tide has turned! This thing is OVER! Obama has lost! What a disaster!

____________________

SwingVote:

Kiptin:

"1. Voter registration does not necessarily indicate that these people will turn out to vote (largest turnout >60% for Kennedy/Nixon contest and last two elections around 55%)."


Hillary thought so too. Too bad for her.

____________________

KipTin:

Are you guys still talking about Congressman Charlie Rangel and his committee?

____________________

KipTin:

Hey... SwingVote... You cannot compare apples with oranges with grapes.

Hillary lost the Democratic primary because of Democratic caucuses, and not elections (closed and open primaries) where one votes.

Look at the historical turnouts for GENERAL elections in the last 50 years. Why would this year be different?

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

KipTin:

When did I say there was a filibuster in the House? I was referring to a bill that had already passed the House and essentially died in the Senate Committee.

I realize that the RNC talking point is to try to pin this on the Dems because they technically control Congress. But this speculation bubble has been building for a long time and the Dems, as noted above, haven't have enough votes to do anything about it.

This is basic high school civics.


____________________

boomshak:

Obama Supporters, think about this.

Obama gets 100% POSITIVE coverage in the MSM. 100%. Nobody writes anything negative about him - ever.

McCain/Palin gets savaged, I mean raped and pillaged every single day in the press. It really is hard to find any positive press about him at all.

And yet, this sucker is TIED. It's amazing! How lame of a candidate is Obama that he can't blow McCain out of the water with an unpopular president, a tough economy and Dem momentum up the ying yang.

I mean, seriously. It's like the New England Patriots being tied with Appalachian State in the SuperBowl with a minute to go. It's rediculous.

____________________

boomshak:

@Napoleon Complex:
KipTin:

"When did I say there was a filibuster in the House? I was referring to a bill that had already passed the House and essentially died in the Senate Committee."

Wait, you said it was filibustered, then you said it died in committee? They don't filibuster in committee and the committees are all run by Democrats, SO HOW THE HELL DID IT DIE IN COMMITTEE?

Hmmmm?

____________________

KipTin:

It was the Dems who did not want to LIMIT mortgages to the lower income people that held up oversight and control of the mortgage market (especially FannieMae and FreddieMac). It was the Republicans who wanted to reform them. Where did you guys miss that?

____________________

Justin:

@Napoleon

Boomshak clearly doesn't understand the basics of our government and how it works. If this person has any interest in learning that would be a wonderful thing, but the focus seems to be solely on "I'm right, your wrong" so I wouldn't expend too much energy attempting to teach.

Few things are sadder than the embrace of ignorance we see in so many here in the United States. We have such an opportunity to make this world a better place. If only people would take a step back and think for a change.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

KipTin:

When a bill is passed by the House, it's referred to the appropriate committee in the Senate. If the bill gets stalled in the committee, it can not get out of the committee unless there is a vote on the floor of the Senate. In order to get a floor vote, a majority of Senators must agree to a vote. However, if a filibuster is threatened or implemented, 60 votes are required to cut off debate by the opposing party. If the party pushing the bill doesn't have 60 votes, they can't call for a floor vote and thus the bill "dies in committee."

Don't you guys know how your own government works?

____________________

KipTin:

Few things are sadder than condescending reprimands like those from Justin. And what does this "love and peace" crap have to do with financial markets?

____________________

KipTin:

I sure as hell know better than you. It is already evident from my posts that I thought you guys were still talking about Charlie Rangel.

FYI... When a bill is passed in the House... It is NOT referred to the appropriate house in the Senate. It goes to a special joint (House and Senate) committee where it is reconciled with the Senate bill. The Senate bill may resemble the House bill, but it is NOT the House bill.

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@KipTin;

That's only when there's a concurrent Senate bill. When the legislation is initiated in the House as this was and there's no concurrent Senate bill, it has to be debated and passed by the Senate. Either body can initiate legislation. They don't have to have concurrent bills on the same subject matter.

____________________

boomshak:

Did you guys know that more people were murdered in Chicago last month than died in all of Iraq from violence?

Wow, isn't that Baracks' District?

____________________

Justin:

I'd like to further point out that the weighted numbers in this poll benefit the Republicans. If the raw numbers were used Democrats would have had a 9.7 point advantage instead of an 8.9 point advantage, effectively giving Republicans 0.8 points.


Weighted:
31.6 Republican
40.5 Democrat
27.8 Independent

Democratic Advantage: 8.9

Non-weighted:
30.3 Republican
40.0 Democrat
29.5 Independent

Democratic Advantage: 9.7

____________________

atreides:

Looks like Daily Kos wasn't off mush. Gallup just came in +4 Obama.

____________________

John S:

The 'margin of error' for this poll is 3%. It says it right in the header.

____________________

Clint Cooper:

Hey Boomshak,

just fyi, this is NOT 2004. Since 2004, the Democrats have enjoyed an advantage in voter registration to the tune of about 6 million. And the Democrats will gain an additional 200,000 or so nationwide between now and the election.

When Quinnipiac, Gallup, Research 2000, and CBS/New York Times are all saying Obama is leading by about 5 points, and Rasmussen says it's tied, who exactly is the OutLIAR?

____________________

Clint Cooper:

Hey, BTW, even if you readjust these using Rasmussen's cross-tabs, you get

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

The main point is that Obama is winning Independents now.

____________________

Clint Cooper:

Hey Boomshak why are you ignoring the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls? I guess you only look at the polls you love - like Rasmussen - who is a devout evangelical Christian Republican.

It has been PROVEN that Rasmussen consistently gives Republicans 4% more of the vote than they actually get on election day. Gee, that wouldn't be BIAS or anything would it Boomshak??

____________________



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