Pollster.com

Only tracker with Obama below 50.

Drudge cracks me up...

"Ayers, Farrakhan Vote at Same Polling Location as Obama..."

OH NO!!!

Unless Pollster has got it wrong, I read 400 LV. You may as well hold a seance, or throw numbers at a dartboard.

Their vote projection is actually a 1.9% spread. 50-48, and that's with a 6% party affiliation spread. If party affiliation spreads come in at 3%-4%, that could put MCain over the top, or McCain could win the electoral college and lose the pop vote.

400 LVs and 5% margin...uhmmm. I stick with Rasmussen

Interestingly their undecideds went up to 7%. Most of the other pollsters are just assigning undecideds, which I personally have a big problem with. That's voodoo not polling.

Morning s.b.

Yep, I'm sure their 400 interviews are decisive compared with the tens of thousands of samples taken in the past 24 hours.

Since Battleground doesn't poll on Friday and Saturday, they were left with a choice between reporting a tracker with half the data being almost a week old, or reporting a two day tracker with a high MOE. They chose the latter, but neither option seems particularly appealing.

GWU/Battleground:

Obama 49 McCain 44, Obama +5

Rasmussen:

Obama 52 McCain 46, Obama +6

Daily Kos:

Obama 51 McCain 46, Obama +5

I totally agree with these guys. I think it will be Obama around 6%, forget the 10 or 11 points, ain't going to happen :-(

*Let's don't get picky. A 6% win will be more than honorable :-)

The spanish radio in Miami, Republican/Cubans, are reporting that they are seeing a lot of young people in polling places :-)

*Poor Cubans. You can hear the sadness in their voices!!!!

IBD/TIPP is at O+8 today???? What is up with this poll after being at 2-3%? I think most of these polls are rigged until the last day or two then they converge to claim they were right after all.

Their final tally is 50.2% ( BO) vs. 48.3% (JMC)after allocation of undecided ... Interestingly most polls estimate BO b/w 50-55% with most closer to 51-52% ... On the other hand , I think most underestimate JMC and this one ( GW) makes more sense ..

Final tally BO 50.5% , JMC 48.5% , RN 0.7% and BB 0.3% -- When it comes to EVs , it is 75-80% likely for BO , but looking at the final days' numbers JMC has a 20-25% chance of pulling it with EV despite losing the PV ...

Good luck for both candidates and God Bless America, the land of opportunity for all ...

Does anyone knows whether Indiana will begin reporting at 6 PM (when the polls close in most of the state) or at 7 PM when the last polls close?

s.b.,

Here are GWU/Battleground final numbers in 2004:

10/31/04 Bush 46% Kerry 42% Unsure 11%

If found this one in another blog:

Apparently news.aol.com/election had the final election results already posted. I don't know if it his still on, but here is a screenshot:

http://i33.tinypic.com/28vrbmg.png

So, McCain won with 48% of the popular vote and 274 EVs.

If that will be the announced outcome tomorrow morning, there will be a civil war !

Change is coming, my friends! 9 more hours and we may have some very good news from VA, NC, FL, etc. Paint them BLUE!

Lines will be very long, but it will be worth the wait! Be patient, and make sure your voice is heard.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!

1992**
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .64%
19% Perot 18.91%
43% Clinton 43.01%
37% Bush 37.45%
2000***
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .58%
3% Nader 2.73%
47% Gore 48.38%
49% Bush 47.87%
1996
Projected Candidate Actual
2% Other 1.65%
9% Perot 8.40%
40% Dole 40.72%
49% Clinton 49.23%
2004**
Projected Candidate Actual
0.5% Other 0.58%
0.5% Nader 0.34%
47.8% Kerry 47.9%
51.2% Bush 51.1%
Projected Candidate Actual
0.6% Nader ???
0.9% Barr ???
48.3% McCain ???
50.2% Obama ???
Projected Candidate Actual
2008
** Battleground Tracking Poll Projection Closest Result of National Polls
***John Zogby Projection Closest of National Polls (Zogby was also one of the only two who projected Gore victory on popular vote).

Here are GWU/Battleground final numbers in 2004:

10/31/04 Bush 46% Kerry 42% Unsure 11%
Bush +4, final result Bush +3

*Undecided at this point are people who are NOT going to vote.

Here are GWU/Battleground final numbers in 2008:

11/2-11/3 Obama 49 McCain 44 Unsure 7%
Obama +5

1992**
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .64%
19% Perot 18.91%
43% Clinton 43.01%
37% Bush 37.45%
1996**
Projected Candidate Actual
2% Other 1.65%
9% Perot 8.40%
40% Dole 40.72%
49% Clinton 49.23%
2000***
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .58%
3% Nader 2.73%
47% Gore 48.38%
49% Bush 47.87%
2004**
Projected Candidate Actual
0.5% Other 0.58%
0.5% Nader 0.34%
47.8% Kerry 47.9%
51.2% Bush 51.1%
Projected Candidate Actual
0.6% Nader ???
0.9% Barr ???
48.3% McCain ???
50.2% Obama ???
Projected Candidate Actual
2008
** Battleground Tracking Poll Projection Closest Result of National Polls
***John Zogby Projection Closest of National Polls (Zogby was also one of the only two who projected Gore victory on popular vote).

@ carl29 -- incorrect estimate -- please see below ..
2008
Projected Candidate Actual
0.6% Nader ???
0.9% Barr ???
48.3% McCain ???
50.2% Obama ???
1992**
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .64%
19% Perot 18.91%
43% Clinton 43.01%
37% Bush 37.45%
1996**
Projected Candidate Actual
2% Other 1.65%
9% Perot 8.40%
40% Dole 40.72%
49% Clinton 49.23%
2000***
Projected Candidate Actual
1% Other .58%
3% Nader 2.73%
47% Gore 48.38%
49% Bush 47.87%
2004**
Projected Candidate Actual
0.5% Other 0.58%
0.5% Nader 0.34%
47.8% Kerry 47.9%
51.2% Bush 51.1%

** Battleground Tracking Poll Projection Closest Result of National Polls
***John Zogby Projection Closest of National Polls (Zogby was also one of the only two who projected Gore victory on popular vote).

The two sets of numbers for 2004 are apparently Battleground's final poll versus their final projection (where they also allocate undecideds).

In any event, not a single national poll or projection shows McCain winning.

FINAL POLLS IN 2004:

Bush average: +3.2%

GW/Battleground, Bush +4
Rasmussen, Bush +1.7
TIPP, Bush +2.6
CNN/USAT/Gallup, Bush +2
CBS/NY Times, Bush +3
Newsweek, Bush +6

DAZNY,

By general agreement (between the TV newscasts), nothing is projected for any state before ALL the polls in the state have closed.

Very heavy turnout in Pittsburgh, PA.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08309/925196-100.stm

@Carlia

As the man says its on the averages.

Going to be interesting if it is 8%!

FINAL POLLS IN 2004:

Bush average: +3.2%

GW/Battleground, Bush +4
Rasmussen, Bush +1.7
TIPP, Bush +2.6
CNN/USAT/Gallup, Bush +2
CBS/NY Times, Bush +3
Newsweek, Bush +6

FINAL POLLS IN 2008:

Obama average: 7.1%

Marist, Obama +9
Battleground/Democratic (Lake)*, Obama +5
Battleground/Republican (Tarrance)*, Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports, Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby, Obama +11
IBD/TIPP, Obama +8
FOX News, Obama +7
NBC News/Wall, Obama +8
Gallup, Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline, Obama +5
CBS News, Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post, Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy, Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +7
GWU/Battleground, Obama +5
Pew Research, Obama +6

Apparently Tarrance (the Republican participant in Battleground) and Lake (the Democratic participant in Battleground) have split on their final projection. See here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf

WTF is RCP doing???? They've listed:

GWU/Battleground poll
Battleground (Tarrance)
Battleground (Lake)

All three on their GE page ... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

the GWU/Battleground 50/44 gets full weight and the other two are weighted at 50% each to count as 1 poll in the averages.

So Battleground gets 3?!?!?! (counting as 2) polls in the RCP average?

@superknower

LOL. The vote totals are something like 20% below that of 2004 and even less than 2000. AOL must be expecting a really low turnout on both sides!

ahahahaha come on guys, this battleground thing is ridiculous. OK no big deal with RCP average. Are we waiting for a real result of for some partisan guess?
this projection is a guess, no-science behind. So please....

Thatcher,

What happens is that GWU/Battleground is done by one Republican pollster and one Democratic pollster. The overall support is Obama +5, but the pollsters are trying to allocate the undecided. Lake, the Democrat, gives his final result Obama 52 McCain 47. Tarrance, the Republican, gives his final result Obama 50 McCain 48.

@Thatcher

The craziest thing about RCP was that they said they were going to drop all partisan's from their averages. Now we have 2 GWU and yesterday's GWU tracker still on the board.

I think Tarrance is the victim of voter intimidation by Matt Drudge.

LOL on Battleground. I guess it lives up to its name.

IT'S HERE! :)

Check this out. Front page of the NY Post one the most right wing Obama bashing papers in the country

Full page color picture of Obama in a presidential pose with american flag in the background and it reads

ON THE BRINK OF HISTORY

wow didn't expect that

@Windependent

what should we read into the reports from PA?

@carl29 and ricbrig

I understand what you are saying ... I'm just saying that it would be best if they had a consistent reporting/averaging policy and not make up rules as they go along.

Like Mark and the guys here at Pollster. In Mark's morning update today - he says - look, Ohio went yellow because of the math. However, based upon a human review - it's most likely an Obama lean. But they didn't go in and make their math match their gut check. They let the math do it's thing.

If you are going to do "gut checks" and adjust your mapping/averages - Just be honest. Don't say one thing publicly and do another. That's all I am asking.

what time the exit polls will start coming in ?

"If you are going to do "gut checks" and adjust your mapping/averages - Just be honest. Don't say one thing publicly and do another. That's all I am asking."

It indeed fails to pass the smell test.

when and where do turnout stats get published?

@masselo:
what time the exit polls will start coming in ?

For what they're worth, I believe they're being held until 5 p.m.

Look, RCP has known Republican lean. They have no problem excluding certain polls, and including others, based on arbitrary criteria.

I think most of these decisions are made in a seat of the pants fashion, probably in line with the site's political bias. There have been many, many decisions of this nature.

So I wouldn't hyperventilate of their results. This (pollster.com) is a much better site for poll aggregation anyway.

the official exit polls don't get released until the polls close in that state.... there will be rumors and leaks on every blog site but not official exit polls

masselo:

Was it Mark or Nate Silver of 538 on MSNBC last night who said (absolutely) don't trust the exit polls.

@jonny87

Pittsburgh and the inner suburbs are going to go big for Obama. So, people in that area getting up early to wait in lines and vote is good news for Obama.

But my personal word of caution about all of this: we may well see record-breaking participation across the board, among Democrats and Republicans and others alike, so heavy turnout may not necessarily favor one candidate or the other. But that is still great for American democracy.

Yes, don't put too much on exit polls. Exit polls tend to skew the results in favor of Democrats. Remember that big cities are Democratic leaning, but rural areas are Republican leaning. It seems that they don't do a good job in getting enough information accross the board.

thanks, I was worried about that. Nobody will buy such a low turn-out.

@Thatcher
I agree on what you said about their classification, they are vague in it since they probalby take in acocunt past elections to make a guess (i.e. this state has a solid Red history, now leans Blue but somehow it has a memory of its roots, e.g. VA). This site and Nate's one are more math based, which I like. Also note that their averagin has two problems:
1-Is now on a muche broader number of polls, some released at more than 48 hrs of distance.
2-Their average for the all campaign has been at constant polls number and variable time window, this confuses the trend a bit.

So I think this and nate's site are great for math nerds like me, but in the end, I can see through numbers, which is good. RCP is a more mainstream site and they have been loose on strict averaging.

rasmussen said it too. what you have to do is look at exit polls match them up with actual results/trends coming in and then you can make a prediction. Of course if the exit polls are a blowout you can call it right there and then

Leaked prelimary exit polls are useless--worse than useless, in fact, because they can mislead. So try not to see them or read about them if you can.

@radmod:

Was it Mark or Nate Silver of 538 on MSNBC last night who said (absolutely) don't trust the exit polls.

Nate has a piece up about not trusting exit polls - for which he greatly credits Mark. So both.

@jonny87

I can only attest to Pittsburgh, where I live. It looks like there is strikingly high turnout in the "trendy" areas at the outskirts of the city (strong Obama supporters), as well as the north-suburban blue-collar areas that wildly supported Hillary Clinton. I can't predict who will get the Clinton votes.

A friend of mine who lives in a minority district east of Pittsburgh says that he waited in line for 2.5 hours. In 2004, his wait was about 15 minutes at the same time. He said there was a huge, excited minority presence in the line.

I'm not really a credible source of election facts, so take these impressions as you will.

Thank Goodness I will not be watching Mourning Joe (on MSNBC) from now on ..

It's times like this when i miss boom.

@mystic
he is among us, reading...I feel it

what should we read into the reports from PA?

I would think high turnout in the major metropolitan areas of PA is great news for Obama. That's where he's far, far ahead. McCain leads in all of that red area between Pittsburgh, Erie, and Philadelphia. Obama voters need to turn out huge in those big cities to carry PA. For now anyway, that looks to be the case.

@Matt_RI,

I couldn't agree more with you. Joe is just a FoxNews branch. I mean, he can't stop parroting the McCain camp./Republican talking points, and the way that he talks to Mika is just apalling, yuki!!

@Dana Adini:
the official exit polls don't get released until the polls close in that state.... there will be rumors and leaks on every blog site but not official exit polls

Are you sure? Politico says the data is quarantined until 5. Networks may not make calls until polls close, but I'm not so sure exit poll data won't be available somewhere earlier.

I hope this is not happening again.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7725276

intrade

Obama 92
Franken 58
Martin 30
Hagan 85
Obama > 370 EV 30
dem 250-260 seats 40
dem 260-270 seats 36

Intrade predicts Obama electoral votes > 350
but

@Dewey1858

Please could you help some european friends to find a good list of blog to follow the pundits ; rumors etc ...

Thanks a lot

@geraldatwork

My guess is that if they try this, the impeachment machinery will be oiled and ready in January.....

Just sent an email to John McIntyre (cc'ing Mark here at Pollster and Nate at 538). I get obsessed on maintaining policy, guys - sorry.

I understand that GWU/Battleground is the combined effort of Lake and Tarrance - so thereby, they balance each other out and create a "bi-partisan" poll.

However, you have now listed their separate final tallies on RCP's National Average of the 2008 General Election.

Together, they are "bi-partisan" - separately, though, they are partisan. Lake is listed as a "D" affiliated Pollster. Tarrance is listed as a "R" affiliated Pollster. By including their separate analysis of the final GWU/Battleground poll - you have now listed 2 partisan polls - something RCP has stated they would not do after Oct 11.

Their partisan listings are on the Politics Magazine website under the directory for political pollsters:
politicsmagazine.com/resources/the-political-directories/political-pages/polling---pollsters-analysis/

Your Policy:
"Starting October 11, and through the final weeks of Election 2008, RealClearPolitics will only be adding non-partisan affiliated polls to the RCP Poll Averages."

www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/use_of_partisan_affiliated_pol.html

Even though you are giving them each 50% (to average them out) - by listing them at any weight gives the appearance of going against your own stated policy. It would be my request to remove their separate analysis from the average to maintain RCP's adherence to the policy.

Thank you,

(name/address/phone info)

@orange24

I mostly agree with your PA analysis, except I think Obama may surprise people in a few counties outside of the big cities (you could look at something like the Casey-Santorum and Rendell-Swann maps to get a sense of where I mean). It is really a question of whether his PA GOTV effort is successful, plus whether the Clintons, Rendell, et al campaigning for Obama have switched over their supporters.

For those of you on pins and needles, wanna make the time go by until the results, get your asses out there and volunteer on GOTV. I plan to finish my cappucino here and joing the NO on Prop. 8 GOTV effort all day. The idea is to talk the voters into voting NO who are fence sitters....OBma needs us on the phones as well but California is in the bag....the rest of you , go for it!!!

We want a HUGE celebration tonight!!!!!!

@massello re: Exit Polls

read this or go to 538 and Read Nate Silver's post today borrowed From Mark
http://www.pollster.com/faq/faq_questions_about_exit_polls_1.php

@geraldatwork ... and you guys call us conspiracy theorists ... ROFLMAO

@carl29

do not be surprised if nationally it is a +9% for Obama.

@webim:

"Please could you help some european friends to find a good list of blog to follow the pundits ; rumors etc ...

Thanks a lot"

I am definitely not the best person to ask. I think the ticker on the right hand side of the page here pulls in a lot of the info from other sources. I also watch fivethirtyeight.com, as do a lot of people here, and sometimes politico.com. I think both this site and fivethirtyeight plan to blog today. But I'm sure others could give you other - and perhaps better - options.

Nate @ 538 just posted this:

2,077,765 - go to his site to figure out what that number means .... I'll give you a hint - that works out to about 1 in 70 or 1 in 75.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/2077765.html

@webim:

Oh, and also occasionally the National Public Radio site, npr.org.

@Fioreb ... I'm looking at Eisenhower's first election numbers, personally (@ 55.2% +/- 1%).

Keep VA Red:

If the shoe was on the other foot and you felt your candidate lost unfairly I don't think you would be ROTFLMAO.
Stalin said more than once (paraphrase) It is not who votes that's important but who counts the votes that makes the difference.

@geraldatwork: you missed the irony ... Democrats love the words "Right-Wing Conspiracy Theory" ... it is your favorite rallying cry ... yet, you guys rabidly indulge in the same thing ...

Keep VA Red what will you do with a deep blue VA?:)

What an amazing evening it will be. Sigh.

@portland: you do realize that the most recent polls in VA show the race within the MOE, right ...

McCain internals have Pa. dead even. PUMAs are very, very strong there, especially Pittsburgh. Pennsylvania will not be called before midnight.

and that they are guessing at their party allocations because in VA we do not register with a party affiliation ...

I'm really concerned about what may happen tonight in Chicago, especially if Obama is in trouble. They're now expecting a million people. Mix that in with high expectations, alcohol, and not enough "pigs" (Ayers term) and I personally wouldn't want to be in Grant Park tonight. I've advised my two grown children to avoid it.

In my opinion, the scenario of 273 EV and 48% popular vote win for McCain is only possible with cheating and corrupting the machines. I posted last night that the long memo from McCain campaign yesterday regarding the inaccuracy of exit polls sounds like an excuse to justify a huge discrepancy between all the polls and the actual outcome. I also believe that this is the reason for some right wing pollster pushing the idea of a close race (GW??).

McCain is toast! If he was so confident, why is he making two more campaigning stops? And why is he campaigning at midnight rallies if he is confident!

@MaxMBJ

Man, you really got something personal against Obama. Did he bump into you walking down the street one day and make you spill your coffee on yourself or something?

Cheating, eh? Just as I figured. If Obama wins, it's that wonderful, wonderful thing called democracy. The people have spoken.

On the other hand, if McCain wins (which he will), it's cheating, voter suppression, election theft.

Nice, Pat, nice.

you conspiracy theorists need to take a deep breath (and some prozac) ... i can guarantee you whoever wins VA is legit because we voted on optical scan paper ballots and there is a paper trail ...

Internal polls from candidates are about as useful as rolling a dice.

Sorry, but I don't think that McCain will carry PA. I have yet to hear a respectable Republican who thinks he will either. I think that McCain is bleeding to many middle-of-the road-Republicans from the burbs. I will predict that Obama will get as many Republicans as McCain will get Democrats. Obama will take by 15+ the Independent voters.
I put it Obama 52% or 53% and McCain 46% or 47%.

You know me, if I thought that McCain had a chance I would say it. I am painfuly honest. I've said all along, I am very skeptical of Barack's chances in FL. I really doubt it. I will be the first person in the nation stunned by an Obama victory in the Sunshine state. I never let my emotions get in the way of the facts.

@MaxMBJ:

My point is that if McCain wins with 48% of the popular vote and the pre-election polls and exit polls have a huge disrepancy with the actual outcome, it is suspect.

the repubs should not wonder why some dems presume there are some conspirations...think only of misleading robocalls (dems vote on Nov. 5), florida 2000...

To the contrary: internal polls are far more accurate than public polls. Just look at what's happened to the public polls in the last three days: nationally they're all diving for the tall grass -- 7.0 spread -- cause there's safety in numbers. Even TIPP pathetically did this. I mean, really, from a 2 point spread to a 7.2 spread in two days? Hilarious.

What will be more hilarious is when they discover that 2 point spread was more accurate ... and even it short of the mark.

This is the election that will unmask the alchemy of polling for all to see. Last time, it was the exit polls that got the curtains opened on. This time, with these 24/7 so-called pundits basing all their comments on the same polls that you and I can read ... the same polls that the Obama campaign has charmed like a cobra charmer ... this time the mask comes off.

And what's going to be revealed underneath it is a biased bunch of cowardly alchemists who are reaching frantically for those herbs up on the top shelf to sweeten their results.

As Joe the Biden would say, Mark my words.

@carl29, I think your assumption about "middle of the road Republicans" is wrong for several reasons: First, McCain has wisely moved back to a position that W. has forgotten - a balanced budget, which is a big reason many moderates tend to the R side; second - moderate R's will prefer divided government, even if they are upset at the neo-con take over of the party during W's term; and third, they know enough about McCain to know that he will put the neo-cons out to pasture.

@MaxMBJ - Worrying about Chicago tonight?

Shades of 1968 - but this time they'll be dancing in the streets!

MaxMBJ:
"McCain internals have Pa. dead even. PUMAs are very, very strong there, especially Pittsburgh. Pennsylvania will not be called before midnight."

That is what they say the internals show, anyway. Unfortunately, no other poll shows anything like a dead even race in PA.

@MaxMBJ

If in fact they are real and most accurate why not let some reporters see them and their internals? Why not state specific numbers rather than "its close".

Are McCain's "internal polls" kind of like those swirly glass balls in Lord of the Rings? 'Cause they sure sound like it.

The problem with internal polling is that we never know how accurate they are: the campaigns can spin or outright lie about the results and we'll never know.

To say that internal polling is somehow more accurate than the public polling is silly. You have no trustworthy sources of information to base that assumption.

Pat: "My point is that if McCain wins with 48% of the popular vote and the pre-election polls and exit polls have a huge disrepancy with the actual outcome, it is suspect."

So what you're saying, Pat, is that you trust the pre-election polls of samples of 3,000 or less over the actual voting polls of 130,000,000.

Paranoia runs deep in the blue states.

@MaxMBJ and VA

I don't know whereyou guys have been.

McCain has virtually no chance at PA and a very very slim chance at VA.

In terms of winning the whole thing money doesn't lie. I can not place any more money as the books will not accept any more.

Just look at Intrade. Are US elections crooked of course some times they are. I think its ugly but its the truth that Kennedy had some help in '60 and I consider Bush had help in 00 and 04.

@geraldatwork

Man, now you've really got me spooked. One thing that gets me is that most computer geeks, like me, tend to be left leaning and are certainly pro-"make the votes accurate". So why don't we have a bunch of us creating it. The idea of using a "man in the middle" server is just ludicrous. It's actually quite simple.

WARNING: LOST POST NOW

The three chief factors for a voting machine are:
1) Making the vote count and count accurately and verifiably.
2) Insuring that a vote is still 'secret'.
3) Insuring that votes are being bought.

1) I prefer an optical scan ballot. If there are problems the actual ballot can be verified. Each precinct's scanner would have triple redundancy. Each time a ballot is scanned, it is rescanned and the result (unchangeable) is written to at least three separate portable drives. A result is subsequently locked and cannot be changed (use open software to verify). One drive is used to upload the original count. The others are used to verify the count. The problem with this, though, is that there will probably be some variety in the answers.

2) A 'secret' ballot can be maintained since the ballot does not contain your name. However, what the ballot would contain is your polling precinct, your machine and your time. After the scan, a paper ticket is given to you. It does not contain who you voted for, but a series of numbers.

3) Since the series of numbers does not say anything understandable immediately, no one can 'buy' your vote.

back to 1)
It is very simple that after the election, to upload the votes onto a web server (still unchangeable). You could then check your vote by entering in your voter ID on the ticket. If your vote is not what you believed it to be then you would have to present your undamaged ticket to the authorities. The string of numbers printed on the ticket would be an 'hashed' version of who/what you voted for. With the 'key' sequence the authorities could easily determine if there was an error in the machines or if you voted wrong. As a final check, they could retrieve the ballot if necessary.

IMO, this really is a national security issue and overrides state concerns.

@thoughtful ... I never said McCain would win PA ... I said I didn't believe that carl's analysis of the moderate republicans was accurate ... I hope and pray he wins PA, but I don't think it is likely

@Keep VA Red,

Dear, we are 8 hours away to finding out. I say that in PA McCain will bleed as many Republicans from the burbs as Obama Democrats. I've said and I repeat again: I WILL BE HERE since the very first poll closes. I keep my projection in PA, Obama takes it with 52% or 53% of the vote :-)

*If I'm wrong, Keep VA Red I will recognize your political talent without any shyness. I have no problem recognizing my mistakes, period.

@MaxMBJ:

So what you're saying, Pat, is that you trust the pre-election polls of samples of 3,000 or less over the actual voting polls of 130,000,000.

Well, makes as much sense as trusting amorphous "internal polls."
Hypocrisy runs deep in the red states.

If Facebook is anything to go by (and seeing as it has practically become a mirror for society, it is) then the selling out of 'Obama 08' badge gifts, and the continuing availability of 'McCain 08' badge gifts is a likely hint to the outcome of this election.

If you can't trust Facebook, who can you trust?

@Keep VA Red

In VA, IIRC, mostly only smaller precincts are using optical. Places like Fairfax Co. and Henrico Co. are using touch screen machines, or DRE's (Direct Recording Electronic).

For example, in James City County, my precinct and ones of that size are using optical but Williamsburg (the city) are using DRE's.

@Britain - well, I'm a Facebook user and a McCain supporter -- and well, I'm just not spending my money on such silliness ... maybe R's are just more frugal with their money ... D's think BigGov will be there to refuel their supply soon ...

@radmod ... i vote this morning on an optical scan ballot in Fairfax County ...

@VA

On PA I have it at 52%-47% as the best McCain can do there.

My argument is more with MaxMBJ than with you.

It's good to see that you are a sensible Republican in wanting to get the budget balanced after Obama sorts out Bush's mess.

@thoughtful ... this is what I think is going to happen over the next 4 years ... the R's are going to take a thumping in this election and it's going to make them remember the base of their Reagan-era appeal ... strong national defense, fiscal responsibility and low taxes ... while simultaneously, O and the D's are going to revert to Carter-era policies (most of what he proposes except the health-care stuff has been tried and failed) ... and in 4 years we will see a Carter-Reagan rematch with the names Obama-Romney ...

Internal polls have only one reason to exist: to give the candidate an honest look at the electorate. They are not tainted by the need to make profit, they are not tainted by the fear of being the outlier, they are not public and neither should they be.

Internal polls simply have no reason to misstate the situation. If they did, they would cause candidates to misuse resources.

Keep this in mind, my friend: the public polls before the last one can never be tested for accuracy. No matter what one comes up with in September or October, who knows if it was right.

But the November polls -- mainly, the last one -- is the one that actually has to be true. Witness last year Zogby running around revising his last poll three times. Witness the polls this week all diving towards the RCP average.

In previous years -- like back in 48, it didn't matter because there were only two polls. But today, there are dozens of polls, all of them receiving tremendous public display. And the power of the pack is simply too great for pollsters to ignore.

There results are tainted in so many ways. Internal polls only possible taint is smaller samples.

At any rate, we'll know in less than twelve hours.

Rick Davis, on McCain's last minute visits to CO and NM today:

"Campaign manager Rick Davis said the stops were added after polling indicated McCain was surging in Western battlegrounds including Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada."

And the PROPAGANDA never stops...

Keep VA Red you will be right here to chat at 7PM EST right?

Of course if the polls everywhere are systematically wrong about everything, then McCain could win PA.

But otherwise, most of the commentary I have seen from McCain hopefuls on PA just seems to be based on ignorance of the state. Indeed, I personally blame that whole "Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Alabama in between" meme. The state is much more complicated than that.

For example, the band of small cities from Scranton down to about Harrisburg is different from the Appalachian parts of PA (I'd suggest it is more like New Jersey) and has been trending Democratic. Then you have another unique pocket around Erie that is like the Great Lakes parts of Ohio (think Cleveland). That is also trending Democratic. And even in the heart of the Appalachian parts of PA you have pockets of Democrats in places like State College or Johnstown.

And the bottomline in the polling is that so far Obama is doing fine in all those Democratic areas, on top of potentially doing even better than usual in Philly and Pittsburgh. So that is why PA is a case of the polls having to be wrong about pretty much everything for McCain to have a chance.

@carl29
How does Tallahasseee normally vote?

@hou .. I know CO. My wife is from there. The people there (aside from Denver) are quite conservative. If he can take away just 1 or 2% in Denver, he will win. The rest of the state will go largely to McCain. Thirteen of the most conservative political groups in the nation are headquartered in Colorado Springs. Add to that the fact that there is an anti-abortion measure on the ballot and his chances are good. The abortion thing will bring high turnout among the conservatives. My mother-in-law is a staunch Dem and she voted for McCain because she says there is just something about Obama that makes her cringe.

MaxMBJ said: "And the power of the pack is simply too great for pollsters to ignore."

So I take it then it is your belief that pollsters are intentionally skewing results? It seems more likely that internal polls are skewed as they likely oversample their supporters or oversample their opponents and are 'adjusted' according to their own beliefs ("youth votes won't matter", "our GOTV is stronger").

thoughtful:

I am judging Pa. a tossup for the following reasons:

1. Gov. Rendell basically has said as much.
2. McCain's internals say it.
3. The activity there by both sides.
4. PUMA info.
5. Murtha's blunder.

I am not just making this up out of thin air. Yes, the public polls show it 5 or more. But these other factors are like noticing the high cirrus clouds in advance of the coming nor'easter. The weather looks good, the temperature's fine ... how could it snow?

Get out the shovels, boys. The snow is a-comin'.

Republicans better get to these polls! Early voting has put you guys in a deep hole!

@MaxMBJ

You seem to be a reasonable person. Summary -The internals help a campaign resource and devise a winning strategy.

The McCain/Palin Campaign have no internals that vary from the plethora of polls taken in PA.

fed,

That is Leon county, with a big AA population and it votes Democratic :-)

*Why?

@ Keep VA Red:

The badges are free, actually.
But I know Facebook isn't really anything to go by. I'd say it hints that the young vote is mainly Obama's, but then it's a case of wether all those prospective young voters will actually go out and vote or not.

@Keep VA Red:

This just in from Virginia:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/virginia-voting-broken-ma_n_140897.html

At the Math and Science Center in Richmond, Virginia, an early breakdown of electronic voting machines led to a three-and-a-half hour wait to vote on Tuesday morning, according to one poll watcher.

"Some people have been here since 6 a.m., and the first voters are just finishing now," said Judith Browne-Dianis, adding that the Richmond location she was watching did not even have backup paper ballots in case of machine malfunction.

"They didn't even have the paper ballots required by state law," she said. "That's not even something we were supposed to have to ask for. I went inside and asked the polling judge, and he said 'we don't have 'em. They [the Board of Elections] were supposed to give 'em to us, and they didn't.'"

@KEEP VA RED

All of VA does not vote by optical scan. Fairfax County still uses touch screens. Of course, it would be kind of hard to argue those machines favor Rs since they'd be the same machines that delivered Jim Webb his Senate seat.

Watch SW Virginia turnout. That may be the decider.

Rendell is a Politician! He headfaked the entire Republicans. You guys should not trust democrats. Look at the polls coming out of PA. THe ultimate Obama Headfake!!!! lol

hou,

Pretty expensive and exhausting propaganda I'd say for a campaign that had a 72-year-old man making 7 stops yesterday.

You live in a story world that was written by a mainstream media that is going to have a "Sixth Sense" plot twist at the end ... one that even the writers of this narrative don't know about yet.

@PlayingitStraight ... how many times do I have to tell you guys ... Fairfax County ABANDONDED TOUCH SCREENS THIS ELECTION ... I voted TODAY in FAIRFAX COUNTY ... ON AN OPTICAL SCAN BALLOT!!!!

Really is there anybody here or can you please send me a link where I can read an honest hint on the accuracy of the uber-accuracy of internal polls. Everybody wants a clear picture so the intent is the same for campaigns and public. It is true that the public can be fooled but...look at the past elections. Generally speaking the 'public polls' were accurate in predicting who would carry the state.
Now the mythological internals may answer to specific questions of a candidate, for example cover a certain area or demografic to shape a message and so on, but pollsters share a common methodology, called 'statistics' that, when properly applied works the same for everybody.

Keep VA Red:

the Clinton's days(not Carter's) are coming back when Obama gets elected.. and Obama will be reelected in four years just like Clinton ---- get it through your head- you wackoooooo!!!! I bet you were sayin the same Sh**t about George Bush 8 years ago but look where he got us

I will say that if McCain winds up winning VA then something is definitely hinky. Especially if the Senate race is less than a 20+ blowout for Warner. Simply put, based primarily on my county, the evidence of McCain support is abysmally lacking. For example, the "yard sign poll" for my neighboorhood went from being roughly even Bush/Kerry to overwhelmingly pro-Obama.

@masselo, I will not stoop to your level of name-calling and immaturity, but I will note that Clinton's most success came after the Republicans took control of the Congress and forced him to a more centrist position. With Pelosi and Reid, that won't happen.

@KEEP VA RED ...

Funny. I live in Fairfax County too. I didn't vote today. I voted on Saturday and the touch screens were being used for the early voting at least at my location.

So its good if they are using optical scans on election day. But its funny they weren't using them for early voting.

Good turn out in tallahassee acording to a friend of mine

The reason that McCain is going to NM, NV, and CO is because they already know that they won't take PA. McCain problem with Bush states is concentrated in the West, NM, CO, NV. If he keeps those states, that's all he needs. He DOESN'T need IA. Do the math, Bush got 286EV and IA is just 7EV. Actually, McCain could lose IA(7EV) and NM(5EV) and still he wins with 274EV.

*I think that the McCain campaign believes that VA, OH, NC, FL, IN, MO, and all those Bush states will stay red. Up to some extent I agree with them. I think that Obama wins thanks to IA, NM, CO, NV. I am not sure about the other battlegrounds.

I am glad to see the McCain supporters online! It makes the chat fun. It is true that Obama supporters are serious about winning! Hang in their, but based on NC reporting the repubs are not showing up in drobes. Bad Sign!

@radmod...even though I didn't vote for him, Warner's popularity is because he is a very centrist Dem, who sought to be fiscally responsible and keep taxes down. He has a completely different pedigree from O and I think you could easily see O lose the state but Warner prevail.

@Keep VA Red:

Sorry, Fairfax has not "abandoned" touch screens. Fairfax uses two types of machines:
ACCU-VOTE OS - optical scanner
WINVOTE - DRE

The number of DRE machines is 1100 compared to 240 for optical scanners.

@fed,

Good!!! :-)

@Keep VA Red:

YOU ARE WRONG (no matter if you are using all-caps or not)

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/winvote_equip.htm

Fairfax County is using a combination of both touch screen and optical scan

@ramrod ... well that's good news ... we have machines to rig after all!!!! McCain will certainly win now ... guess my princint was one of the converts ...

Every (I believe) large county and city in VA uses touch screens.

Warning!! The following #s are coming from The Patriot Room. These numbers are absolute rot and I am just putting them out there since people are talking about internal polls and such.

http://patriotroom.com/?p=3852

"These purport to be the final internal polls from the McCain camp. I don’t know if they are accurate, I suspect they are, but if Obama wins, the McCain camp deserves to lose, being that far off the mark in predicting the outcome. These numbers portend a blowout for McCain.

PA: MCCAIN 52%, Obama 40%, Undecided 6%

NJ: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 7%

MI: McCain 45%, Obama 44%, Undecided 7%

VA: McCain 53%, Obama 42%, Undecided 3%

CO: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Undecided 4%

MO: McCain 49%, Obama 42%, Undecided 7%

FL: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Undecided 3%"

ooops ... meant "radmod" ...

@DecaturMark

ROFLMAO!!! I'm dying over here! Those numbers are sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo far removed from reality!

@Keep VA Red

Yes, Warner has huge support. What I said was that if O loses VA and Warner gets less than +20% then something is definitely wrong. What I love is that of the few McCain yard signs I have seen, almost half have been McCain/Warner.

went from 311 to 291. now I start to panic....

A couple random thoughts:

(1) I agree that if McCain had consistently run as a budget-balancer he would likely have brought some moderate Republicans and former-Republicans back into the fold. But that really would require him to go back in time and consistently oppose Bush's budgets, including remaining a consistent opponent to Bush's tax cuts. But of course he would never have been the Republican nominee if he had done that. And therein lies another example of the fundamental bind McCain has been in this entire cycle: the Republican "base" demanded of McCain things he could never sell to moderates and independents.

(2) We've seen here on Pollster how easy it is for partisans to cherry-pick the PUBLIC polls to suit their desired narrative. "Internal" polls are no less subject to the same treatment, and moreover are not subject to independent scrutiny. So, the simplest way to spin your internal polls is to only tell people about the more favorable results, and just not talk about the bad results.

And in light of that, it is telling that the most the McCain campaign has claimed is that various internal polls have shown them close in certain states, but never actually ahead. So if you are cherry-picking your internal polls and still can't do better than close, you must not have had much to work with in the first place.

@Thatcher:

I guess they mixed up Obama's name and McCain's name on all the other PA polls. ;>)

Great --- here's yet another voter surpression tactic in Virginia:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/A_fake_email_at_George_Mason.html?showall

Wonder why whomever hacked in didn't want students aged 18-24 to vote .... Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

@Keep VA Red

You wouldn't be the first to call me "ramrod"!
LOL. I've been thinking about changing it - makes me feel macho!!!!!

As for Repubs not showing up at the polls. Here in my very red district of the usually red state Indiana, my son waited 30 minutes to vote this morning at 6:00 a.m. That isn't much by other reports I've heard but it is 30 minutes longer than he's every waited before.

Furthermore, the northwest part of Indy -- a bastion of Repubs -- is packed.

To be fair, the heavily Dem districts around Chicago have been inundated, especially in early voting. Not so sure about today. But I know the Obama people have gotten the vote out. The problem is, they're working in a state that Bush won by 20 last time.

And -- and here is the elephant in the room that no one talks about -- the Repubs are really, really angry about the media coverage of this race. No matter what you may think about the conservatives' anger at media bias (that is, you may think they're kooks, that there is no bias), the undisputeable fact is the there is a huge perceived bias and it has deeply offended the right. I want to say this loud and clear: if McCain upsets Obama and wins this thing, the number one factor will be that ... the anger at the MSM. It is huge, it is palpable, and it is driving those pickups and hummers to the polls.

It went 291 because Ohio is a TOSS UP!

@DecaturMark

I think those "internal numbers" are the ones spouted by an 'insider' several days ago on some radio show. Let me see if I can find them again (someone had posted them here).

@MaxMBJ

You talk a lot about McCain's internal polls for PA. Have you seen them? All we have to go on is the word of McCain staffers, who have a big incentive to stretch the truth.

One telling thing from the McCain internal announcement was an "off the record" comment to Politico that went something like "Pray the internals look like this tomorrow.", then we never heard about McCain internal polls again. And this was around Halloween, which was a bad polling day for everyone.

So in short, if you have McCain's internal polls, please share them with us. This is a poll geek's web site, after all. But if you just want to troll, try FARK.

Okay, lets look at this objectively. You have public polls that are conducted by organizations that have strong incentive to produce accurate results. Their final polls will be judged against the actual vote tallies, and those that are way off will become irrelevant, at least for the next election cycle.
Then you have "internal" polls from a campaign. This campaign's only interest is to get their supporters to the polls to vote, or to supress the opposition's vote. Accuracy isn't important to them, at least in terms of what information is released to the public. The campaign controls the flow of information and they can put out whatever message they think will be most beneficial to their cause.

So, based on this information, which group of polls should we trust? Seems pretty clear to me.

@boquita:

That's because Pollster made Ohio yellow earlier. However, if you read Mark's Morning Update ... he says its the math - but when he looks at the polls, he'd call it leaning Obama.

DON'T PANIC!

42 is the answer

The Question? -- How many friends/family are you calling to make sure they voted today?!

@boquita:
went from 311 to 291. now I start to panic....

Relax. Ohio is officially a toss-up based on some late polls, but Mark the site guru still thinks it is leaning Obama. Meanwhile, the flip side of that news is that Colorado went dark blue, placing it in the strong Obama column and putting his number of "strong" electoral votes over the number he needs to win the election at 273. Feel better?

@ericsp

my thoughts exactly :)

Worried about the youth vote? Hey - this is in PA!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Whc4OmprF2s

At 7 am on Election Day, there was already a line of almost 1000 students to vote at Penn State University, PA.

As for Mark feeling in his gut that Ohio is leaning Obama but the numbers not able to hold that claim ... what are we here for looking here on these polls web sites? Feelings? Or numbers?

Mark did the right thing. You can take comfort in his instincts but if you choose to go that route, you better be aware that the McCain team is decidedly upbeat today. It has been widely reported and it is on their faces.

What's your instinct about that?

@Thatcher:
Worried about the youth vote? Hey - this is in PA!
At 7 am on Election Day, there was already a line of almost 1000 students to vote at Penn State University, PA.

That's because there was a rumor that tickets just went on sale for the Michigan State game.
(sorry, couldn't help myself)

@DecaturMark:

As much as I'd like to believe those numbers, That just seems over the top. While I do think that McCain can squeek out a win(unlikely though), there's no shot of it being by that much.

The polls would have to be +15 off. I could see 3-5pts off, but not that much.

@MaxMBJ:

Look - I was just trying to calm someone down. If you want to be an ass - and not offer pertinent information about what is REALLY going on outside the four walls of your abode - then - why not scootch your cootch over to redstate.com

Thank'ee

Of course there is something deeply cyclical about the right wing fringe's anger at "media bias". Basically, if the media presents a description of the world that disagrees with their sense of how the world should look (e.g., if the media reports that all the polls show Obama ahead of McCain), they get angry at the media and claim it is biased. But then they use that alleged bias as an excuse for ignoring the media, thus cutting themselves off from any independent source of information about the way the world really is.

And so they sink deeper and deeper into the echo chamber of other members of the right wing fringe, and grow angrier and angrier at a media that keeps reporting on a very different world from the real world they think is being hidden. Indeed, part of the appeal to being on the fringe is that very sense that only you and a select few others know the real truth, making you superior to the rest of the "sheep" who have fallen for the "lies" coming from the media. So it is not just anger, but contempt, that drives this cycle, and pushes these people ever-farther from the real world.

Obama's GOTV effort here in Montana is amazing. People are canvassing every street in 40-degree rainy weather.

I'm amazed that anybody takes seriously what the campaign's say about their internal polling.

It's not what they say: it's how they behave that reveals their view on the state of the race. And both camapaigns are behaving pretty much as you'd expect from the public polls.

Here are the comparitive internal polls from obamas camp.....I am entirely making them up myself but they are worth just as much as mcccains:

PA: MCCAIN 42%, Obama 51%, Undecided 6%

NJ: Obama 58%, McCain 38%, Undecided 3%

MI: McCain 38%, Obama 53%, Undecided 7%

VA: McCain 42%, Obama 50%, Undecided 5%

CO: McCain 44%, Obama 50%, Undecided 4%

MO: McCain 42%, Obama 49%, Undecided 7%

FL: McCain 44%, Obama 53%, Undecided 3%"

Zogby has just been on British radio claiming his polling today shows that Florido and Ohio have flipped for McCain.

By the way, I suspect that the McCain camp is feeling at peace today because they are resigned to the likely outcome and feel that they nonetheless did what they could. In fact, speaking from personal experience in various competitive situations, I only felt nervous beforehand when I thought I or my team might win--if I instead pretty much knew I or we were going to lose, I'd mostly just be enjoying the game.

Guys, don't argue about silly things. I think that those people who believe campaign's spin and cite internals will learn an important lesson tonight. We are hours away from finding out :-) Relax!!!

@eric ... the problem with your analysis is you ignore the other possible reason why all the pollsters have gravitated to one number ... if they are all equally as wrong, then they can say there was some uniformily unaccounted for factor at play and they can't be faulted for being with the "in crowd" ... they can't all be irrelevant for the next election cycle.

The facts.

Here are the toss-up states on Pollster.com from strongest McCain to strong Obama

Georgia [15 EV] (traditionally R state)
McCain +2.9

Montana [3 EV] (traditionally R state)
McCain +2.2

Indiana [11 EV] (traditionally R state)
McCain +1.2

North Dakota [3 EV] (traditionally R state)
McCain +0.7

North Carolina [15 EV] (traditionally R state)
Obama +0.4

Missouri [11 EV] (as goes ... etc)
Obama +1.1

Florida [27 EV] (traditionally R state)
Obama +1.9

Ohio [20 EV] (traditionally R state)
Obama +3.1

Even if McCain picked up every single one of these - McCain would LOSE. And show me 1 traditionally D state on that list ... not one.

Democrats - take a deep breath - if you are worried, turn off the computer and go volunteer to help GOTV

Republicans - take a deep breath - if you don't want 4 years of Obama and a strong Democratic controlled House and Senate - Don't even bother turning off the computer and run (don't walk) to the nearest R HQ and volunteer

If you have nothing to substantively add on this site - why are you here?

@jaffacake,

Zogby better hurry up and fix those numbers he released this morning to save the little credibility some people still have in him. I am not surprise because I consider Zogby one of the worst pollsters at STATE level. His nationwide surveys are not that bad, but state surveys are like flipping a coin. No surprise!!

jaffacake,

His website says the opposite? Is he going to update it?

Intrade at 93.3 Obama and 7.7 McCain

@Thatcher ... There is only one poll that actually means anything ... the one being taken in precincts across the USA today ... we'll see what that one shows us ... until the result of that one is known, we can always hope that the American people will make the choice we want and reject big government with its inefficient and ineffective solutions that will inevitably leave us worse off than when we started ...

NOrth Carolina and Virginia is going BLUE!

Don't feed the trolls...

I hope you all realize that the trolls know it is now to late to continue spreading lies and such. Therefore they are only left to try and put doubt in the result of this election.

Relax and enjoy the Obama landslide tonight!

Zogby said that out of the battlegrounds these two seem to have flipped towards Mccain from his polling today.Others remain Obama

DTM:

So you think rightwing perception of media bias is just in their minds? Then explain the Pew research on that that showed a 2 - 1 favored treatment of Obama.

@Keep VA Red -

I have worked (paid) in the campaign business for 10 cycles (my first was working for Brian Baird's successful congressional bid in 1998).

I've campaigned in over 6 different states at every level of elections. I've worked on environmental referenda. For the past 8 years I have been THE database consultant for 2 of the most winningest political mail consulting firms in the United States, plus several other major clients that are players in the industry.

Guess what - I've seen some of the internal polls this cycle. I've seen over 1,000 different pieces of mail for campaigns across the country - I know who they were targeting, where the mail was going and what many of them have for voter support ID's. I have had access this cycle to over a dozen state party's voter contact files and have run queries based upon information gathered by volunteers in those states and paid survey firms.

And I agree with you ... the only poll that actually means anything is the ending today (early voting started a month ago). But I know the demographics ... I know who has voted and what they told the campaigns who they supported.

VA will NOT be red this year (BTW - I was Kris Amundson's (house district 44) Field Director in 99 and her campaign manager in 01 after the redistricting - so I know the area you're from). Nor will many areas across the country that are normally red. It's just not going to happen.

@jaffacake,

No matter whether you like or not what Zogby says, I am for one very, very skeptical of Zogby. If it was for Zogby's state polling, Kerry would have been POTUS.

FLORIDA/Bush carried by +5
Zogby, TIE

IOWA/Bush carried by +1
Zogby, Kerry +5

NEW MEXICO/Bush carried by +1
Zogby, Kerry +3

*I am not saying that he is wrong now. Actually, maybe he is now fixing his numbers. With Zogby you really never know, for he really doesn't know :-)

Oh ... and to MaxMBJ and Keep VA Red ...

And if I am wrong. Then it is because the voters lied continuously. They lied to volunteers, they lied to paid survey companies, they lied to the media, they lied to pollsters. While it is possible for pollsters to be out of whack (they decide the samples they are using) - it is just not possible for everyone to be wrong.

And let me say that the American people are not liars. They haven't lied to the volunteers, they haven't lied to the survey companies, they haven't lied to the media, and they haven't lied to the pollsters. They have no need, no reason, no cause to.

The only ones that need to spin are the campaigns, themselves (and certain members of the "media"). The point of my contention is ... I've seen the data ... and only one side is lying - and it's not Obama's side.

i think zogby forget the stats lesson on margin of error.

@maddie ... thanks for the intellectual conversation and the ad hominem attacks on anyone who disagrees with you ... you lend great credibility to the Democrats' argument that they will govern for everyone and not just themselves ... you clearly demonstrate the respect that you have for those with differing views ... If I'm a troll, I guess that make you an ogre.

@mysticlaker

ROFLMAO

Well, and using Zogby's own national daily numbers for 2 days this past weekend (he announced those 2 days separate results) ... It would have required every single person polled to have been decided upon a candidate (and depending upon the rounding of digits - perhaps more than 100%) to get to the rolling average number he acheived today.

Why are the trolls still spewing their mouths? It's over. Meet me here trolls at 7PM EST. We can talk:)

Lying Republicans. It's always the lying Republicans.

Well, as for voters not lying, you should check out some PUMA sites. I think you'd find something different.

But I don't think lying to pollsters is why the polls will be shown to be wrong. I think there are three reasons they're off:

1. The dynamic nature of this election. It is a fluid as water. To get this one right, you'd need a poll taken just as the actual polls close.

2. The pollsters believed the narrative Obama set forth: that he was going to win and win big, get the youth vote out, all these new voters, etc. and they worked that into their calcualations. This is clearly what happened at Gallup: they even came up with two formulas to cover their rears.

3. Telephone hangups. Nine out of ten calls got hangups or no response. It is not my mere speculation that these would tend more to be Republicans and here's my proof: In 2004 pro-Kerry females skewed exit polls by being more quick to volunteer. This has been well documented. Obama voters are equally more likely to want to be polled, I believe. And thus the skewed polls.

Zogby should shut up, like the other pollsters for today in respect of the election !

They can do polling for scientific use, but nothing should be released until the polls close.

Makes no sense to speculate anymore. We have to wait those hours, although it hurts.

I looked at a PUMA site. It failed to define what they are (except anti-Obama), like what the heck does PUMA stand for?

Trolls, always trolls. And liars.

I agree with Keep VA Red. Name-calling (fancy word: ad hominem attacks) make your side look like intellectually weak.

As for meeting yall here at 7:00, gladly.

BTW, I note that the Obama camp is now trying desperately to tamp down attendance at that ridiculous and dangerous celebration party in Chicago. Good luck with that. I know I for one wouldn't want to be there.

@Keep VA Red

So you think Bob Barr has a shot at an upset? Just kidding (sort of).

@MaxMBJ

As a general point, I don't think it makes sense to talk about the for-profit media as monolithic. The for-profit media is actually functioning in a differentiated product market, meaning different media outlets are catering to different media consumers, and tailoring their output accordingly.

Anyway, as for the Pew study: keep in mind that it would record a story as negative for McCain if it reported "McCain down in Poll X" and as positive for Obama if it reported "Obama up in Poll Y". It would similarly record a story as negative for McCain if it reported "McCain down in polls because of Factor X" and positive for Obama if it reported "Obama up in polls because of Factor Y". And the study found this sort of story dominated political coverage.

So, not surprisingly when the polls turned up for McCain around the Republican Convention, the coverage turned more positive for him and more negative for Obama. When the polls then turned back down for McCain, the coverage turned more negative for McCain and positive for Obama, where it has stayed, since McCain has remained down in the polls as the election approached.

As Pew noted in its writeup of the study, the media thus serves as a sort of poll-reinforcement mechanism: when the polls move a certain way the coverage starts trying to explain those polls, which makes the coverage overall more negative for the person doing relatively poorly and more positive for the person doing well. I'd agree this is not necessarily what would be ideal from a democratic standpoint, but the problem is that apparently this is the sort of coverage that is rewarded in the marketplace.

Guys, let's no argue about hear-say things. No one knows for sure how things will turn out. We can argue about what we know, so I find fair to go back and check Zogby's record from previous elections. About who was wrong or rigth in this election, we will find out in a couple of hours :-) Isn't exciting? OMG!!!

@Portland ... because it's fun to jab sticks at the ogres!

Keep VA Red it stands for Party Unity My Ass. All 5 of them frequent the site.

Why all the excitement over Zogby. Every single national pollster in the United States is in agreement. They are either ALL right or ALL wrong.

VA Red:

Unofficially PUMA means, "Party united my a**." The official meaning is "People United Means Action." It's a bunch of Hillary supporters who took the mistreatment of the Obama campaign very personally ... to the point they are now actively campaigning for McCain.

@MaxMBJ

I already stated that the pollsters could be wrong

And PUMA sites?? Ok ... I've checked hillaryis44.org throughout the entire process ... the same 30-40 users post comments there on an almost hourly basis.

Zogby also said about this time on election day '04 that VA was trending big-time for Kerry. Who the heck tries to do election day polling and claim it means anything? OH and FL are both close. We'll know how they went when they count the votes. You can't "poll" now. How many people are even home now?

@Centrist_Dem: all the R's are at work ... all the D's are playing hooky to toke some and act like they are campaigning for the Messiah, so to answer your question ... not many people are home

PUMAs are the great mystery of this campaign, I think. Hillbuzz is probably their top site and it's over the top in so many ways. I take everything from them with a grain of salt.

But they may really be out there in big numbers. They may well be why Zogby is vacillating now on Florida. I've heard there's a big contigent in Florida and Pennsylvania. Seventy of them actually loaded up the vans and went door to door last week in Ohio and Penn. And I've heard they are manning the phones in Repub headquarters throughout Pa.

There's a Goldwater guy at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95&Itemid=2 who has worked out the entire scenario of the PUMA factor against RCP averages. He presents an interesting case for a McCain win.

But we'll just have to see if this is real or just the delusions of a few angry, jilted Hillarites. No one knows for sure.

Guess hes trying to get himself known in British Media who were impressed by him

@Centrist_Dem: only those who have already voted, or do not vote at all. I think the campaigning should be stopped now

I really don't know what the argument is about after today the Repubs can go about the business of re-inventing themselves.

Obama is going to win fairly comfortably at the very least.

The Dems will have a bigger majority in the House.

Dems will have 58 Senate seats, the Repubs 39, 2 Independents and a run off in Georgia

Can't wait to get into all the actual details. There are over 1.5 million Obama volunteers GOTV as I write.

See you at 7!

Guess Zogby is tring to get known across here in the UK

@Keep VA Red:
@Centrist_Dem: all the R's are at work ... all the D's are playing hooky to toke some and act like they are campaigning for the Messiah, so to answer your question ... not many people are home

So what you're saying is, you were cheating your employer as you typed this.

Guess Zogby is trying to get known here in the UK. By the way its been riveting following this website ... you have all the fun in the states!

@MaxMBJ

In response to your three points above:

(1) Actually, Charles Franklin just posted a chart of undecideds, and their pace of making decisions hasn't been much different from 2000, the last time there was no incumbent running. Also, early voting has served to effectively lock in more voters than usual. Finally, from a broader perspective the polling in this race has been quite consistent, with just a little expected volatility around the conventions. So, I'd actually suggest this race has been, if anything, less fluid than usual, particularly in the last few weeks.

(2) The pollsters favoring new electorate models from the beginning had reasons to do so aside from Obama's rhetoric, including evidence from the 2004 and 2006 elections, the 2008 primaries, registration data, and so on. In any event, of course not all pollsters changed their models, and Gallup even provided both. Yet we have seen a convergence of all these models in the close. As we have discussed before, likely the most major reason for that convergence is early voting removing a lot of uncertainty about the electorate, plus some apparent widening of the enthusiasm gap.

(3) As an aside, exit polls are entirely different from telephone polls, so there really isn't much point comparing the two. Nonetheless, you are right that telephone polls have to struggle with low response rates. However, this is not a new factor in 2008, and pollsters have designed ways to compensate (most notably weighting their respondents to match demographic and sometimes party id targets). Moreover, to the extent this is an issue in the polling in 2008, it may well lead to understating Obama's support (according to PPP, Obama's supporters on average require more callbacks before generating a response, and many polls are doing few if any callbacks).

Anyway, the bottomline is that polling isn't perfect, but I don't actually see much reason yet to believe this year was a far worse year for polling than any other year. And to the extent there are some growing challenges for pollsters, they may well have ended up leading to Obama, not McCain, underperforming in polls, or at least the various effects largely cancelling out.

@MaxMBJ:

He says it will require 1,280,789 PUMAs in 12 states for his prediction to work ... that would be almost 1 in 15 of all 18 million cracks. And if we narrowed that down to just the 12 states - we are looking at probably 1 in 4.

Take a few minutes and let that sink in because while there are still PUMAs ... their aren't 1,280,799 PUMAs in the entire country - let alone in 1/4 of it.

They couldn't get their goal of 1 million to protest the Democratic Convention in Denver. By most reports, they barely broke 100. And this guy expects 1.2 million to exist to create his scenario?

On "PUMAs":

There are cross-over voters in every election. For example, in 2004 something like 2.7 million Republicans voted for Kerry, and 4.9 million Democrats voted for Bush. In 2000 it was about 2.9 million Republicans for Gore and 4.5 million Democrats for Bush.

So the fact that PUMAs (and other Democratic crossovers) exist is not a surprise. Rather, to make this a significant story one would have to show that such crossovers exist in unusual numbers. And what the polls have shown is that gradually Obama has consolidated his support among Democrats to ordinary numbers, and indeed roughly the same as the numbers McCain gets with Republicans.

Max said: "Internal polls have only one reason to exist: to give the candidate an honest look at the electorate. They are not tainted by the need to make profit, they are not tainted by the fear of being the outlier, they are not public and neither should they be."

The problem, Max, is that RELEASED INTERNAL POLLS TO THE PUBLIC serve a singular purpose....to RALLY THE TROOPS, regardless of what they say.

I find it hilarious that you are saying what you did when the conclusion of these internal polls WAS leaked.

Tell me this: How many candidates would purposely announce the results of an internal poll that does their candidate damage? Likewise, what are the odds that ANY candidate is going to obviously say that the internals are completely different than the public perception?

OF COURSE McCain is saying that their internals are showing something different!! WHY WOULDN'T HE????

@hou .. I know CO. My wife is from there. The people there (aside from Denver) are quite conservative. If he can take away just 1 or 2% in Denver, he will win. The rest of the state will go largely to McCain. Thirteen of the most conservative political groups in the nation are headquartered in Colorado Springs. Add to that the fact that there is an anti-abortion measure on the ballot and his chances are good. The abortion thing will bring high turnout among the conservatives. My mother-in-law is a staunch Dem and she voted for McCain because she says there is just something about Obama that makes her cringe.

I actually live in Colorado. And the problem that McCain has is that roughly half, maybe MORE of the vote was reportedly already locked in throught early voting. And I went past a couple a precincts on the way to work today that looked really busy. And I honestly believe that he would need to shave off much more than just 1 or 2% in the Denver metro area.

What seems to be lost is that it's the HISPANIC vote that is hurting McCain so much in Colorado and neighboring states. McCain will do well in the Grand Junction / Durango area. But the polls seem to be suggesting that he is getting punked in the metro area, which accounts for the huge majority of the state's population.

@Mister H:

That and Udall will win the Senate. CO has a Democratic Governor ... AFSCME has sent members there to GOTV ... Glad you live out in CO.

From what I understand 2/3rds of voters in CO have already cast ballots in early voting and from what I've heard Obama leads that group something like 57-41.

That's some very scary stuff from AOL. I'm glad someone posted that link. I bookmarked it. If McCain wins we need to look very carefully at this page to see if that's the numbers they are using to say McCain won. Scary.

Thatcher said: "That and Udall will win the Senate. CO has a Democratic Governor ... AFSCME has sent members there to GOTV ... Glad you live out in CO."

Uh....what is "AFSCME?"

Of course I could be wrong. But I just find it interesting that even a McCain staff member described Colorado several weeks ago as...and I quote...."Gone."

The AA and Hispanic vote in Denver could be huge. And almost every poll out there was saying that Obama had a 5-9 point lead here.

PS: I used to work in the TV news business and I interviewed Udall's opponent, Bob Schaffer, quite a bit in previous races. He is, uh, quite the treat.

His voicemail message when you called his legislative office (he was once in office as a Rep) used to say that he was unavailable because he was "out fighting for freedom."

He quickly became known in our office as "Captain America."

Mister H ... LOL on the "Captain America" ..

AFSCME is the largest single labor union (it's part of the AFL-CIO) and is made up of government employees. They've sent soem of their 'troops' out there to GOTV for Obama and Udall.

For people interested in Historical FACTS and polling:

And for the nervous folks like me, a great read and reality check:)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/pollster-calms-paranoid-d_n_140960.html

What's AOL? (Voter here under 40) LOL

Keep VA Red said "the problem with your analysis is you ignore the other possible reason why all the pollsters have gravitated to one number ... if they are all equally as wrong, then they can say there was some uniformily unaccounted for factor at play and they can't be faulted for being with the "in crowd" "

Once again, the assumption is that the pollsters are out and out lying/skewing their numbers. What is more likely?
a) The McCain camp is skewing their numbers.
b) A secret cabal of competitors has gotten together to intentionally skew their results.

Hmm, tough choice ...

Worried about PA? Check it out ..

http://articles.lancasteronline.com/local/4/229714

Joe the FoxNews Branch was just on CNN making a fool of himself again. Rick Sanchez put him in his place tho. Sure won't miss him after all this is overwith!