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US: Obama 49, McCain 44 (Zogby 10/12-15)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/12-15,08; 1,208 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 44

 

Comments
johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for 9 national polls was:

Obama 50.2/ McCain 43/ +7.1

For the 5 daily trackers, the figures were:

Obama 50.5/ McCain 43.65/ +6.7

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows a tiny ray of sunshine for McCain -- his numbers seem to be edging out of the basement and finally approaching 44%.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3175/2945011231_90fcf037c8_b.jpg

Obama's numbers, however, continue to look rock solid -- he went into the debate about 0.5% better off than at the second debate. The full effect of last night will not of course be seen in the trackers until Sunday. But if the instapolls are any guide, don't expect any decline in Obama's election-winning level of support.

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carl29:

See why we shouldn't get all fuzzy for one single day numbers. It's better if we look at the whole picture(the trend), at least 3 days or a week.

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JFactor:

We're going to see fewer and fewer undecideds in the future polls. The debate was another victory for Obama based on the insta-polls so it's likely that the undecideds will break about 50-50 or at least Obama isn't going to get crushed in that sector. So my estimate is that Obama will stay over 50% and McCain rises to about 45-46% in the last two weeks.
________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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boomshak:

POLITICO POLL: MCCAIN WINS INDEPENDENTS BY 9 AFTER DEBATE

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14618.html

Voters are closely divided over which presidential candidate won the third and final general election presidential debate, according to an exclusive Politico/InsiderAdvantage nationwide survey of undecided debate-watchers.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said that Obama won the debate, compared to 46 who believed his opponent, Sen. John McCain, came out on top. The three-point gap separating the two candidates was equal to the poll’s margin of error.

Five percent said they were unsure which candidate had the better evening.

Perhaps the best news for McCain is the rating he received from independent voters. Among respondents not identified with either major political party, McCain was judged tonight’s winner, 51-42 percent.

Obama’s most important lead may have come among Hispanic voters, who said he bested McCain by a 50-36 percent margin.

The candidates were evenly matched among white voters, with McCain posting a narrow 49-46 percent advantage. African-Americans picked Obama as the winner, 88-10 percent.

The poll was conducted over a 15-minute period following the completion of the presidential debate, testing 715 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The sample of uncommitted, likely voters, was selected from a pool of 160,000 voters across the country, and the results were demographically weighted.

“This poll, unlike some others, asked only one question, and that is who won the debate, and then asked the demographic questions in order to process the poll. If we asked any more questions, no one could physically have finished it in time to analyze it in the 11-12 o’clock hour,” said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery. “We went to extraordinary levels to make sure that everyone taking the poll was truly undecided.”

Asked in advance of the debate which candidate they would vote for if they were forced to choose one now, respondents were evenly divided between Obama and McCain.

Though his edge was a narrow one, the reaction to tonight’s debate, held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., represents Obama’s third straight win in post-debate polling. Polls conducted immediately following the previous two presidential debates showed the Illinois senator winning those face-offs.

Polls taken after the first debate by CNN and CBS gave the win to Obama by double-digits. Following the second debate, a CNN survey showed Obama winning among undecided voters, 54-30 percent, and a CBS poll had him winning the exchange, 39-27 percent.

MY REACTION:
I just don't know what to say. McCain just passed on SO MANY opportunities to make Obama look like a fool. i was literally yelling at the TV screen - "John, hit him on the 95% taxcut bullsh*t!", but he wouldn't go there.

God, after 8 years of pussified Republican leadership, it was almost too much to bear.

Grow a f*cking set of balls McCain! This man across from you wants to turn America into a socialist country and you want to be "respectful"? He's hitting you with a rusty pipe while his buddies in the MSM hold you down and you want to fight by Queensbury Rules?

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thoughtful:

@johncoz

in the last 3 months the only time when McCain has really broken the 45% barrier was the Palin/Convention bounce which really does suggest that without something remarkable and really quite unprecedented this close in,45% is the best that McCain can put up nationally.

Then its down to the specific GOTV motivation and organization in each state.

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carl29:

boomshak,

What happened to Fox focus group? When did Luntz turn into a liberal pro-Obama?

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boomshak:

If you look at Zogby the last week or so, it looks pretty much just like statistical noise. It really is remarkable given Obama's advantages that this thing is still this close.

We'll see if the debate had any affect last night. It's funny, becuase who 'won" the debate really matters little.

If McCain managed to plant seeds of doubt into Independents minds, those seeds can grow. By election day, this may be a dead heat.

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maddiekat:

To funny! Joe the plumber was a McCain plant from Cincinnati not Toledo and is not registered to vote. Basically Joe is a skinhead from Ohio who can not even vote.

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boomshak:

@carl29:
boomshak,

What happened to Fox focus group? When did Luntz turn into a liberal pro-Obama?

Luntz has scored two of the debates a win for Obama. He scored the second one a big win for McCain.

At this point, I truly find it hard to believe anyone could find a room full of people who still have no idea who to vote for. Such people surely must be idiots by definition.

Anyway, the debates are over, and as has been shown historically, they have made little if any difference.

We'll see.

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drinkwine247:

hey boomspank

Why is it that you find the only poll out there that shows McCain winning anything, and better yet it is from Karl Rove's boys overs at Politico!! The funniest part is that even the foxnews online polls showed Obama winning! Better luck next time. See you in 2012.

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bmrKY:

You seriously are a certifiable loon, boomshat.

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carl29:

boomshak,

The problem is that you get one single piece of information and make up a whole story out of it. Look, Politico is the only one showing those numbers for McCain, the other news sources, Fox included, saw something different. It could be the case that Politico is the only one right; however, until we can corroborate those findings, everything is just "unknown." We'll see the trends of the polls in the following days. :-)

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boomshak:

@maddiekat:

To funny! Joe the plumber was a McCain plant from Cincinnati not Toledo and is not registered to vote. Basically Joe is a skinhead from Ohio who can not even vote.

Let me get this straight.

McCain sent an unregistered plant to an Obama rally somehow knowing that out of the thousands there, Obama would choose to speak to him, and then Obama would use the now infamous "spread the wealth around" line?

Wow, vote for McCain, he is friggin psychic!

Lol. Fail.

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johncoz:

Boom, I can see your pain -- but it's pretty well all over. As Andrew Sullivan noted, Obama was the Alpha male on stage last night (hence his big edge among women). McCain did not embarrass himself last night, but it is his misfortune to up against a candidate and a campaign that is far superior in every way.

Braying on in ideological terms about "socialists" and "liberals" is not only irrelevant, but counter-productive. The political cycle has turned. The political cycle has turned. Get used to it.

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carl29:

boomshak,

But I remember that in the Biden-Palin debate Luntz focus group went big for Palin. I mean, no one saw such thing, only those crazy/rightwingers.

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boomshak:

@drinkwine247:
hey boomgod

Why is it that you find the only poll out there that shows McCain winning anything, and better yet it is from Karl Rove's boys overs at Politico!! The funniest part is that even the foxnews online polls showed Obama winning! Better luck next time. See you in 2012.

COUPLE OF POINTS:
1. First of all, you think Politico is a right-wing publication? Lol, that automatically discounts you as being mentally qualified to vote. Politico is hard left.
2. FoxNews Online Polls always show Obama winning because they are almost impossible to find. All the moonbats know where to find them so they all vote.
3. The FoxNews Text Message Vote had McCain winning with 88% of the vote and over 1 million votes cast.
4. Drudge has Mccain winning with 72%.
5. AOL Poll shows it tied.

A week from now, this debate won't matter anyway. Let's see how both candidates close.

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DTM:

It is pretty telling when your cherry-picking of polls is forced to become cherry-picking of crosstabs in polls, since you can't find a single poll with the topline result you want.

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bmrKY:

"boomshatWAKEUP:

4. Drudge has Mccain winning with 72%."

Well whooptie ****, I guess that settles it.

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boomshak:

AP DECLARES MCCAIN THE WINNER OF DEBATE!

Analysis: McCain puts Obama on the defensive

http://news.aol.com/article/analysis-mccain-puts-obama-on-the/199497?cid=3272

"WASHINGTON -This time, John McCain kept Barack Obama on the defensive.

The feisty Republican tried hard to find a lifeline Wednesday night, challenging his Democratic rival at every turn over his truthfulness, associations and record.

By that measure, McCain won the last debate of the 2008 campaign..."

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DTM:

Although of course you may be able to find online nonscientific polls to support your narrative. But it is hard to describe that even as cherry-picking--that is more like picking dead leaves and pretending they are actually cherries.

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boomshak:

@bmrKY:

Well hell man, you want me to accept polls from CNN and CBS when they won't even release their samples?

Could two news organizations be any more in the tank for Obama?

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carl29:

I think that the problem with McCain is that whenever he talks about policy/issues he just doesn't seem credible. I mean, it looks like he doesn't even know what he is talking about. He looked "confident" during the first 30min. because he was attacking Obama on taxes and Ayers-Acorn because he believes in all of that; however, when thinks turn to domestic policy issues, McCain didn't look confident anymore. He obviously doesn't believe that it is up to the government to solve or help solve people's problems. You could see it.

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boomshak:

We have now had 4 debates. Altogether, they have had ZERO effect on the race. Obama lead by about 4 before the debates and he leads by about 4 now.

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carl29:

boomshak,

I agree with you that debates make no difference. Remember how well people said Kerry did in the debates back in 2004? What happened? Nothing. People like their candidate no matter what. Unless the candidate makes a huge gaffe, people will stick to their choice. The only good thing that debates bring is media-cycles, which right now has been kidnapped by the economy. We'll see kids :-)

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thoughtful:

McCain needed to win convincingly with MSM. They would like nothing better than a compelling close race.

McCain, as you said yourself had opportunities but frustratingly was to slow and not sharp enough to catch Obama.

Obama didn't even try at any stage to hit McCain hard. He just parried and danced content to stick and jab his way to a points victory. The last 15-20 minutes were painful as McCain had nothing left.

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DTM:

Sidoti's article is a logical mess.

She starts with the claim that McCain won the debate by the measure of whether he attacked Obama a lot. But then she gradually gets around to explaining that McCain's attacks have been backfiring with the voters at a time when he is already far behind in the polls, that Obama "had a ready answer for McCain and brushed aside the negatives," and that "a confident and collected Obama held his own in what amounted to an audition for the chief executive position."

So, in short, McCain has been hurting himself and Obama has been helping himself in these debates. And wouldn't one think THAT was the relevant measure of who is "winning" these debates?

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johncoz:

Absolutely everyone agrees on two points this morning.

1. McCain needed a game-changer from this debate.

2. Last night was not a game-changer (however one might score the "points").

Result: the RNC hardheads will already be moving to funnel their resources into salvaging their congressional slots and away from the presidential race. It's a tough game, politics.

@thoughtful

538's projection of the final popular vote is now 52/46. Such a previously unbelievable result now seems highly credible.

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak

my last remarks were for you.
The debates this time have made a difference avery big difference in re-assuring the American people that Obama is "ready".

The debates have also solidified both camps, more Obama's than McCain's, as the number of voters that think McCain is too old has increased significantly.

Thus Obama is "ready" and McCain is too old.

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DTM:

RCP averages on 9/27 (the last day of polling before the beginning of an effect from the first debate):

O 47.9
M 43.6

RCP averages as of this morning:

O 49.6
M 42.4

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:

If I were McCain last night this is what I would have said:

"Senator Obama, you earned millions last year. How much did you give to charity?"

This would have left Obama hemming and hawwing since he gave a tiny fraction of what the average American or John McCain gave.

Then McCain could have said, "Ok, I think I get it. When you say "spread the wealth around", you are talking about everyone else's wealth. And by the way, when was the last time you spoke to your half brother who is living in abject poverty? I bet he wishes you would spread a little of your personal wealth his way. Maybe you can ask the American Taxpayer to buy him a decent home?..."

But nope, John "won't go there". It's too bad too because that would have really embarassed Obama and made him look like a hypocrite.

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GrampsMcCain:

IBD- no change from yesterday.
Zogby today Obama +1, McCain NC
R2k no change from yesterday

Rasmussen who to me is still the most credible pollster here given as to how he views changes in party id (IE that they change slowly, but not constantly, like Gallup does.)

I checked Drudge (aka Sludge) Report, and haven't seen him post the Ras poll so I don't think McCain gained there. I will say for today
Obama 50
McCain 45
with the caveat that Obama will get to 51/52% in the next couple of days.

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bpd1069:

boomshak is probably working for a PR firm like BM or similar. They are usually hired to astroturf online.....

OR

He's completely delusional...

I'm betting on the latter...

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slegend:

Obama completely destroyed McCain in all the debates. The right wing media plants that dominate the news on all networks have tried to spin the debates toward McCain but the polls show a 2:1 advantage for Obama.

First, Obama looks calm, collected, and talks with a convincing tone that connects to voters. McCain looks like a 4 year old that broke his mother's favorite picture frame and he is trying to lie himself out of the situation. This is the Gore vs. Bush effect that Obama has in his corner.

Second, the exchange on abortion was THE campaign blow for McCain. He fumbled around some crap line about a woman's health. If you go talk to independent soccer moms about this debate, they will talk about abortion and McCain's most pathetic response to right to life.

Third, Obama destroyed McCain on Health Care. McCain allowed the viewers to leave with two thoughts - (1) McCain will tax your health care benefits, (2) McCain will cause you to be dropped from your health care plan at your company.

Finally, Obama destroyed McCain on the issues of Ayers and the attacks.

McCain lost the election last night.

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boomshak:

@GrampsMcCain:

Race is close with Obama priced for perfection. Literally EVERYTHING has gone his way for the last month, yet we are still very very close.

Anything breaks down on the Obama side in the next 3 weeks and this could be a tie going into 11/4.

Also, would expect LV's on Gallup to tighten further today as McCain picked up a full 3 points yesterday.

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thoughtful:

@johncoz
I have a lot of time for Nate and Sean.

In reply to some of our rightwing friends,yesterday, I confided that I am forcasting 52-44% and 395EVs. As we are tightening from my +14% lead as of 2 days ago! Ha, Ha.

I have no reason to revise this morning. Obama got last night really right, he really didn't need to do much more. The temptation is to get argumentative - president's don't - John McCain does. Subblimally I made it Obama's best debate.

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DTM:

I think that abortion exchange may end up being worth as much as a point by itself for Obama. Polls have shown that a substantial number of pro choice swing voters mistakenly believe McCain is pro choice, and not only did he make his pro life views clear, he actually conveyed his contempt for anyone who disagrees.

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carl29:

Boomshak,

The problem with "spread the wealth around" is that it only scores with ideologically-conservative people. It doesn't appeal to non-conservatives. When people hears WEALTH, they think about wealthy people, and right now the wealthy and well connect are not the most popular individuals among the working class, the school teacher, the nurse, the secretary, the shift worker, the firefigther, the policeman...regular individuals. I understand that "spread the wealth around" is such an offense for you guys(the conservatives), but the average people hears: Hey, it's time for the wealthy and well connected to feel the pain.

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boomshak:

AOL Debate Poll:

Who do you think won the debate?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 47%
Neither 6%

Total Votes: 448,535

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:

You do know that Nate is a HUGE Obama partisan right?

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boomshak:

JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 16,000!

Wow, surprising. Look for big rally today. Futures have tripled since the news.

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carl29:

boomshak,

Look at the AOL poll on Palin/Biden:

Who won the debate?

Sarah Palin 46% 261,201

Joe Biden 45% 252,419

It was a draw 9% 48,407

Note on Poll Results
Total Votes: 562,027

=====================================

See who votes at AOL?

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DTM:

Among the many false comforts Republicans are providing themselves these days is the idea that McCain can't possibly continue to do more damage to himself as the race winds up. As last night showed, of course he can. And in fact he has little incentive at this point not to just vent his spleen, since for him a loss is a loss regardless of magnitude. The Party's problem is that for some of the other GOP candidates running this year, the magnitude of McCain's loss may actually make a difference.

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thoughtful:

@boomshak

You are passionate idealogue of the right. I love you to bits as a fellow American though we have a totally different political outlook.

McCain now appears to be one of the worst candidates in our history. A chief Executive, a commander-in-chief, has to be calm in battle and clear in thinking and in action. McCain does not possess those qualities, Obama, forget, the political divide does.

The next President is going to be hugely constricted by the collapse of the American and world economy. Tax & Spend doesn't come into it as profits and earnings are going to be low. Priorities are the order of the day to re-build America's economy and greatness.

McCain is completely oblivious to that daunting challenge.

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carl29:

Who would make a better vice president?

Joe Biden 49% 265,777

Sarah Palin 48% 262,849

I'm not sure 3% 18,074

Note on Poll Results
Total Votes: 546,700
================================

See? Everything is possible in AOL polls. Not even "uncle" Ras' have such good numbers for Palin :-)

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thoughtful:

@boomshak

I don't hold it against Nate that he is a huge White Sox fan! and self confessed Obama fan!

Nate Silver is the go to guy when you figuring out how to beat the bookies!

With regards to Nate also being a huge Obama fan, I don't hold it against himor 60% or so of US voters.

Does Nate have a useful, interesting and compelling web site that sits with Pollster as great sites on the net. Yea!

Is this site and 538 impartial, yes. I consider RCP to be red and Politico to to be light pink. I like Mike Allen's stuff though.

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bigmac:

@boom

Why do news organizations owned by mega-corporations want a socialist to be elected President?

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BOOMFAIL:

AOL online poll is linked from Drudge, so that should tell you something.

All actual polls show that Obama won yet again. Obama Biden going 4-0 this year is pretty remarkable. If you believe that McCain "won" last night, that is your opinion. The only win that matters will be on November 4th, and last night didn't change anything. Well, except make Joe Six Pack the Plummer richer than he already was!

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paradski:

@Boom

You keep saying this thing is close...

well, I guess if you cherry pick your tracking polls, ignore other national polls and ignore all of the state polling then I see your point.

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carl29:

Obama wants to make McCain defend WV:

"Barack Obama is making a play for West Virginia.

The Democrat is launching TV ads in the state that George W. Bush won four years ago.

Democrats say the economic turmoil in this hard-hit state and TV ads Obama has been running in its neighbors have made it competitive"

I don't think that Obama will spend time there, but just make McCain throw some money.

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truebljb1:

Rasmussen

Obama 50
McCain 46

Gain of 1 for McCain

Also,

Without leaners
Obama 47
McCain 44

Certain of Vote (Big Change over the last week)
Obama 42
McCain 42

*It was 45-38 at its hight last week.

Also for the first time in a while McCain leads Obama in favorability

Mcain 55
Obama 54
*Last Week Obama 56 McCain 51

This race seems to have tightened a little, but it will be interesting if the debate changes anything or not. It is not about the "instant" winner, but rather the story you set up for the next 19 days. McCain will now pound on the big spend high tax unchcecked gov't with Pelosi and Reed. We will see if it works. While I ackonwledge Obama is ahead, it surely is not over. He did not close the deal over the last 3 weeks.

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metsmets:

I am beginning to think Boomshak is correct - McCain is clearly gaining and the result is in doubt. The polls are lying as is most of the MSM.

In fact, I'm so impressed with his thoughtful anaylsis, I'm giving him my Los Angeles Dodgers World Series tickets.

What? When did that happen? So because you're behind by four runs after nine innings, they call the game??? Liberal elitist MLB!!!

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huetdebd:

@boomshak

what's the EV count? i think it says 333. how many EV's do you have to have to become president? i think it's 270. even if the polls tighten obama will still win. mccain has no path to victory. explain if you can what states mccain can win that will get him the white house.

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ThinkTwiceTypeOnce:

McCain did very well last night, especially considering what the expectations were. He managed to gain ground on the economy, closing the percieved gap between him and Obama on that issue.

But is that enough? I highly doubt it, because he did lose ground by coming across at some points as somewhat angery and erratic.

And yes, I am one of those undecided voters, although I am strongly leaning towards Obama at this point. We'll just see what the next few weeks brings as the pressure of the end game cranks up.

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