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US: Obama 49, McCain 44 (Zogby 10/14-16)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/14-16,08; 1,210 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 44

 

Comments
boomshak:

It should be pointed out that SINGLE DAY POLLING on Thursday, the first day AFTER the debate, had Obama's lead falling to 3.6%.

Odd reaction to a debate Obama supposedly won (according to the MSM).

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Publius:

First night of polling after debate suggests that the race is stable.

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Publius:

Good morning boom. Bet you're surprised the Washington Post endorsed Obama.

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maddiekat:

boobshak

Anyone with eyes could see that Obama won the debate. I put as much stock in one day of Zogby polling as you do the Daily Kos.

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bmrKY:

MUH-KANE TO BE TIED BY SUNDEE! THE TIGHTENING IS HAPPENING! TEH CRAPPY ZOGBY POLL THAT HAS BEEN WRONG FOR 20 YEARS SAYS SO! EVEN THOUGH I CAN'T TELL YOU HOW, AS OF THIS MOMENT, MUH-KANE CAN WIN IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, IT'S STILL OVER FOR BARRY OBAMA, ADMIT IT U UNPATRIOTIC LIBS! SOCIALISM! HE'S A SOCIALIST! SOCIALIST! GD YOU BARACK OBAMA! SOCIALIST! AYERS! SOCIALISM! ACORN! SOCIALIST! MN LATTE LIBERAL YOU R TEH SOCIALIST! U SUPPORT TERROR! SO DO YOU KERRCHDAVIS AND NW PATRICK! IT'S SOCIALISM I TELL YOU! A VOTE FOR OBAMA IS A VOTE FOR SADDAM AND OBL! SOCIALIS... AHH HELP, THEY'RE TAKING ME BACK TO MY PADDED ROOM! NOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Boom/wake FAILS... AGAIN!

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johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for 7 national polls was:

Obama 49.9/ McCain 44/ +5.9

For the 5 daily trackers, the figures were:

Obama 50.3/ McCain 44.1/ +6.1

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows the trend of the tightening, which brought the trolls out in force yesterday: support for McCain has risen steadily over the past week and has breached 44% (as predicted yesterday). That move is now clear and large enough to be interpreted as signal rather than noise.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3056/2947741117_da19318cc2_b.jpg

But support for Obama is still trading within the 50-51% band, so he is sitting on a comfortable 6+ lead at this stage. Volatility in the next few days is likely to be the result of "soft leaners" swapping camps, given the tiny number of undecides left in the two most heavily weighted polls, Gallup and Rasmussen. If Obama can move beyond 51% in this model over the next week, then we are looking at a convincing win. On the other hand, if Obama falls below 50% then he has more of fight on his hands. The post-debate instapolls may not be a reliable indicator of the coming trend, but as of this morning they're all we've got.

Relationship to Electoral Map

Rasmussen notes: "As a practical matter, all of the state-by-state changes are driven by the changes seen nationally ..." Obama's sustained national support at or above 50% has seen all 14 state changes since 9/23 in the Rasmussen State by State Balance of Power move against McCain. It's been one-way traffic. For McCain to even have a chance at 270 EV he would need to entirely eliminate the current 6-point gap -- at a minimum 49/49 given Obama's structural EC advantage.

Finally, this from WP: Plouffe said he thinks Obama is actually stronger in the battleground states than he is nationally, thanks to a months-long focus on building individual campaigns in each of those places. "We believe we are disproportionately strong in the battlegrounds," he said.

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boomshak:

@Publius:

Good morning boom. Bet you're surprised the Washington Post endorsed Obama.

I guess that would explain their 100% positive press for Obama 24/7?

You know, if McCain can pull this off, the entire MSM may commit mass suicide.

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jonny87:

are there usually many state polls on a friday?

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boomshak:

Finally, this from WP: Plouffe said he thinks Obama is actually stronger in the battleground states than he is nationally, thanks to a months-long focus on building individual campaigns in each of those places. "We believe we are disproportionately strong in the battlegrounds," he said.

Well, what is he supposed to say? "Our internal polling shows us we aren't doing nearly as well as the public polls and we are scared sh*tless we might actually lose this thing..."?


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C.S.Strowbridge:

"You know, if McCain can pull this off, the entire MSM may commit mass suicide."

And if he doesn't, I expect right-wing trolls like you to do likewise.

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maddiekat:

boobshak

I am so glad you can read Plouffe's mind! by the way boom all the polls are proving what he just said..

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johncoz:

Morning boomshak,

Plouffe's comment is worthy of note, because it points to the apparent discrepancy between Obama's not-overly-large national lead, and the complete breakout on the electoral map. This is an empirical question to which I will devote some time over the weekend.

Also Plouffe has come out of this so far looking like a political genius, and he is not a big spinner (unlike that idiot Davis). It's worth paying attention.

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Vercingetorix:

"It should be pointed out that SINGLE DAY POLLING on Thursday, the first day AFTER the debate, had Obama's lead falling to 3.6%."

And yet the three-day lead has gone up, yes? Which, even leaving aside the maassive MOE in the one-day sample, must mean that Thursday's post-debate polling was better for Obama than Monday's pre-dabate data which it replaced, doesn't it?

So we're supposed to believe that Obama is doing worse, even though his numbers are improving?

Sheesh. As a long time lurker, I've always thought of this site as a welcome haven of intelligent partisan discussion. It's a shame that Pollster, too, now seems to be drowning in the flood of panicky, blind, know-nothing cheerleading.

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Vokoban:

"It's a shame that Pollster, too, now seems to be drowning in the flood of panicky, blind, know-nothing cheerleading."

Having Alankeys on board must count for something... *g*

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sunnymi:

Does anyone believe Zogby's numbers after he says this?

"Obama widened his lead among independents, where he wins 52% support, compared to 33% for McCain. The two candidates have been battling to a near-tie each day among men, and today they are tied at 46% each. Among women, Obama leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. He led by eight points among women yesterday."

He had said previously Independents were 26% and a 19 point lead among them itself translates to almost 5% lead. He is basically polling the same number of Republicans and Democrats.

BIG FAIL!

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johncoz:

@Vercingetorix

No conclusion can be drawn one way or another from Zogby today. Rasmussen at 9.30 is the poll to watch. But note also that a real effect after the second debate was not detectable until the Saturday, after the last of pre-debate polling fell out of the trackers.

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sunnymi:


What Plouffe is saying has been confirmed by external pollsters like ARG and Hotline several times over.

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jonny87:

johncoz,

even if obama does get a debate bounce(whuich im not sure he will) what use is it if the bounce fades after a week???

....unless people vote early*

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sunnymi:

Letterman: Do you know Gordon Liddy? Did you attend a fundraiser at his house?

McCain: I know Gordon Liddy, he went to prison, and he paid his debt. I'm not in any way embarrassed to know Gordon Liddy.

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carl29:

"Missouri: Obama 52% McCain 46%"

Uncle Ras' is worried about his dear Palin. Have you noticed that he is polling those places that McCain needs to win and is slipping away?

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boomshak:

Fraudulent Votes Cast in New Mexico
Obama’s ACORN Must Be Shut Down Before Election, All Activities Investigated


(Albuquerque, NM) – Public records released in New Mexico today confirm that fraudulent voter registrations are in fact turning into fraudulent votes. ACORN, currently under investigation by the FBI, is now confirmed to be responsible for producing fraudulent voter registrations and illegal votes in New Mexico. An inspection of public records has revealed that illegal votes were cast in New Mexico’s 2008 primary election.

“This is a bombshell. We now have undeniable proof that a significant number of fraudulent voters were cast in Democrat primary races for the New Mexico state legislature as a result of ACORN’s voter registration fraud,” remarked State Representative Justine Fox Young (R-Albuquerque). “No longer can ACORN argue that their phony voter registration forms don’t translate into fraudulent votes. They do and today we can prove it.”

...

“It is safe to say that the number of illegal votes being cast dwarfs the 366 votes that decided the 2000 Presidential election in New Mexico,” said Nina Martinez, Secretary for the Republican Party of New Mexico. “Barack Obama contributed $832,000 to ACORN, organized an ACORN subsidiary, represented them as their attorney, trained some of their members and received ACORN’s endorsement. Obama should withdraw his financial support from ACORN and come clean about what he knows of their activities. Every fraudulent vote cancels out an honest vote. We must ensure the integrity of this year’s election.”

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jonny87:

sunnymi,

zogby weightings

38 D, 36, R....+age, race

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/10/51730/437

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1magine:

Hold on here. Tied among men, leading by 10 among women.... Women make up nearly 52% of electorate - - Helloooo?

Also leading 52-33 among independents? Drop these into a Ras sample and its O+8, at Gallup its O+12. What is Crazy Z's weighting?

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1magine:

Hold on here. Tied among men, leading by 10 among women.... Women make up nearly 52% of electorate - - Helloooo?

Also leading 52-33 among independents? Drop these into a Ras sample and its O+8, at Gallup its O+12. What is Crazy Z's weighting?

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bmrKY:

On a more serious note, I suggest that everyone, regardless of political affiliation, check out Tom Udall's ad "Humbled."

It is one of the most heartfelt, touching, inspiring political ads I've ever watched, and it really puts into perspective how we should DEMAND that our neighbors and politicians really DO put the priorities of our soldiers and veterans first, instead of just saying that they do in a political speech or with a yellow ribbon on the back of their SUV. We really are lucky to have individuals like Tom Udall and Jim Webb in Washington who make it their number one priority to fight for real people instead of just talking about fighting for real people every time they're up for re-election, and it gives me hope that we really will be able to turn things around before it's too late in this country.

Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h12mEegemI0

And more information about the ad and the young man in the ad from Udall's website:
http://www.tomudall.com/PDF/HumbledFactSheet.pdf

The young man in this video is inspirational beyond words. I really wish this was a nationally televised ad because the whole country deserves to hear Erik Schei's story, and should really get educated as to whether or not their senators and representatives are fighting for those who fought for us. Those of you in New Mexico are very lucky to have a soon-to-be elected Senator like Tom Udall serving you (trust me, I live in KY, so I know what two VERY bad senators look like), and you are even more lucky to have a brave soldier like Erik Schei living in your community.

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Vercingetorix:

@johncoz:

"No conclusion can be drawn one way or another from Zogby today. Rasmussen at 9.30 is the poll to watch. But note also that a real effect after the second debate was not detectable until the Saturday, after the last of pre-debate polling fell out of the trackers."

Thank you. I get that for sure.

I fear I allowed my exasperateion to get the better of me, faced by the very special kind of thick-skinned stupidity that allows it's possessor to keep posting such feeble, transparent propaganda without any apparent embarrassment.


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carl29:

"Missouri: Obama 52% McCain 46%"

Uncle Ras' is worried about his dear Palin. Have you noticed that he is polling those places that McCain needs to win and is slipping away?

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jonny87:

carl29,

wow, im suprised at the MO numbers

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sunnymi:


ACORN by law is mandated to return every application it receives. It tries to verify them and places in 3 piles - Good, Unconfirmed and Doubtful before turning them over to the state electoral agency.

If the state authorities then mix them up it is not ACORN's problem.

You guys are really clutching at the straws!

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vmval1:

Boom, you just make sure you look up a *good* shrink prior to election night. It will take years to fix the PTSD that you're going to suffer from this. :)

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maddiekat:

boobshak

Did you get your latest "BREAKING NEWS" for Red States or from Drudge the Sludge.

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bmrKY:

"boomshak:
Fraudulent Votes Cast in New Mexico
Obama’s ACORN Must Be Shut Down Before Election, All Activities Investigated"

Sorry BOOM****, Udall and Obama are going to win in New Mexico, despite all of your ACORN bull****. John McCain said ACORN is what makes America great.

If I were you, I would be looking into what two leaders from your party, Voinovich and Crist, are going to pull in Ohio and Florida.

My guess: more democrats kicked off voter rolls and more barricades put up at polling places in black neighborhoods.

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vmval1:

@boom
Read it and weep.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html

Also, kindly link articles that you cut and paste, just so that we can confirm that they are from an unbiased (i.e. not a crazy right wing nutter) site. What was the link for that Acorn cut and paste that you posted?

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vmval1:

****! This is not good for us... daily Kos
Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/16 44 50 2 2 1 1

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johncoz:

@jonny87

Because time's running out, and voter preferences are now locking down. We know there will be "The Narrowing" on election day, which we can model with mean-regression tests. But in the absence of a catastrophic external event, if Obama is around 51 by Sunday his superior ground game and spending capacity will take over from there.

The other thing to keep in mind is the effect on an already dysfunctional McCain campaign of any Obama bounce: panic, zig-zags, errors. They are already losing more territory than they can defend, and Obama's red-state tour is as much about applying psychological pressure as it is about picking up extra EVs.

These factors played out in last November's Australian election in a very similar fashion when the conservatives were roundly defeated. A very different environment, but very similar dynamics.

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vmval1:

@johncoz:

Are you from Australia?

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jonny87:

vmval1,

you can see the numbers????

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vmval1:

dailykos.com

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Tues, +10 Wed and +6 . Friday's polling will start to reflect the debate, and the +6 Thurs is a significant change, for the first time in days. However, while the one-day Thursday numbers are 50-44, an improvement in McCain's numbers, Obama has been at 50 or more since 9/29 (see top graph). As Tuesday's number drops off tomorrow, the topline number should tighten. Zogby (the other early AM poll) shows no such improvement.

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jonny87:

yikes, ive seen them

am i still a troll for saying there is tightening in the polls and obama did not have a good debate?

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vmval1:

@jonny87:
yeah, what you do is click on the inernals, and then change the date on the URL to 17 rather than 16

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jonny87:

when people say 'a week is a lifetime in politics' they mean it. ive no idea why people are calling this race over, as much as id like it to be.

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bmrKY:

"carl29:
"Missouri: Obama 52% McCain 46%" "

OUCH!

And coming from Ras, DOUBLE OUCH!

If Obama has this kind of lead in Missouri next week, I think BoomWake's head might explode. It's the electoral college, STUPID!

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johncoz:

@vmval1

On Kos, 50/44 is what my little model projects as the "real number" (see above).

And yes, I am in Australia.

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vmval1:

Ras says:

"Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a 35.0 % chance of winning Missouri’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall."

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boomshak:

@Vercingetorix:

"It should be pointed out that SINGLE DAY POLLING on Thursday, the first day AFTER the debate, had Obama's lead falling to 3.6%."

And yet the three-day lead has gone up, yes? Which, even leaving aside the maassive MOE in the one-day sample, must mean that Thursday's post-debate polling was better for Obama than Monday's pre-dabate data which it replaced, doesn't it?

Um, NO. His 3 day lead shrank. What poll are you looking at?

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vmval1:

@johncoz:

Which city?

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MDB1974:

NRSC retreat from CO. Rass has O up by 6 this morning in Missouri. Good morning.

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s.b.:

The polls have tightened over the last week, some significantly. Those that had a large spread have tightened about 6-7%. those with samller spreads less. Anyone who says this race hasn't tightened significantly over the last week is just spewing propoganda. The race has tightened all you Obama howler monkeys love to talk about how old and behind state polls are when McCain is ahead, so I assume you agree the same phenomenon takes place when McCain is gaining. Rasmussen by the way showed a 3 point gain for McCain in two days in Ohio for McCain. The state polls will start to shift as well. Wait for the end of next week to show them tightening.

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boomshak:

OBAMA'S LEAD IN FREE-FALL!

The Daily Tracking, even on the obscenely weighted Kos (26% Rep) Poll, shows a collapse to just +6 from +12 a few days earlier.

This is mirrored by the significant tightening in Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIFF, etc.

McCain, is without doubt, surging ad surging strongly.

Maybe Americans don't want their "wealth spread around" after all?

P.S., Clinton promised a middle-class tax cut in 1992 also. We all know how that turned out. Beware liberals bearing tax cuts...

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mysticlaker:

Here is my take:

Obama is not going into the General election with 10 point national lead, or even a 8 point national lead. I think he goes in with a 3-5% national lead. The polls are all going to start to converaging towards those numbers.

However, in the battlegrounds, in will like be 3-10% leads. That is all the counts. Obama has built up a strategic advantage in the battlegrounds (both with his advertising and ground game), and that is what is going to carry him through election day. The missouri number from RAS is great news...Just excellent. The politico article here on the key counties is much more important that the converging of the national polls:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html

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carl29:

s.b.:

"Rasmussen by the way showed a 3 point gain for McCain in two days in Ohio for McCain."

And now Rasmussen shows Obama doubling his lead in MO.

Now,10/14/2008
46%
52%

Before, 10/12/2008
47%
50%

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johncoz:

@jonny87:
"am i still a troll for saying there is tightening in the polls and obama did not have a good debate?"

Of course not. There has been a tightening; more specifically, McCain's support this week has lifted from unreal low levels, even though Obama's has been stable. This is not entirely unexpected. But we won't know about the debate impact until Sunday.

@vmval1

Sydney. Would you live anywhere else?

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boomshak:

@vmval1:

****! This is not good for us... daily Kos
Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/16 44 50 2 2 1 1

Yep, when you own homer poll with the silly weightings show it tightening that much, you KNOW something is up.

What we may be seeing in the next few weeks is all the lesser polls getting closer to Rasmussen/Gallup as they don't want to be an outlier come election day.

I am hoping Rasmussen tightens one more point today. We'll see.


P.S. You know who the MOST ACCURATE pollster was in 2004? TIFF, who now has the race at Obama +3.

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Schill:

Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Missouri to six percentage points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain is supported by 46%. Earlier this week, Obama was on top 50% to 47%.
Fifty-one percent (51%) believe that raising taxes on those who earn more than $250,000 a year will be good for the economy. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe such a tax hike would hurt.
that contradicts the belief that spreading of wealth statement is hurting.
Anyway, states' polls and counties' polls from inside advantage are showing the troubles of McCain in the days ahead.

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boomshak:

CRITICISM OF MCCAIN:

As far as I can tell and from what i have personally seen, McCain is doing NO ADVERTISING in VA, NC or FL.

I have no idea what the thought behind this strategy could be. I am in Raleigh, NC and I haven't seen a MCcain ad paid for by McCain in a month.

I had heard he had $200 million in the bank. What the hell is he spending it on?

Despite that, the race continues to tighten.

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carl29:

boomy, these are the polls before the election:

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1
Bush 50% Kerry 46% Bush +4

Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/30 - 11/1
Bush 50.2% Kerry 48.5% Bush +1.7

TIPP (936 LV) 10/30 - 11/1
Bush 46.9% Kerry 44.3% Bush +2.6

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31
Bush 46% Kerry 48% Kerry +2

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1573 LV) 10/29 - 10/31
Bush 49% Kerry 47% Bush +2

CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30
Bush 50% Kerry 47% Bush +3

ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30
Bush 48% Kerry 49% Kerry +1

Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29
Bush 51% Kerry 45% Bush +6

These are the closest ones:

Bush 51% Kerry 48%

CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30
Bush 50% Kerry 47% Bush +3

TIPP (936 LV) 10/30 - 11/1
Bush 46.9% Kerry 44.3% Bush +2.6

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Vercingetorix:

"Um, NO. His 3 day lead shrank. What poll are you looking at?"

Quite right. My bad. I was looking at Wednesday's three day result, not yesterday's. But my point remains the same. Looking back at the past seven days of Zogby polls shows 5, 5.5, 3.8, 6.2, 4.3, 6.1 and 3.8 point leads for Obama. And yet you claim to discern a post debate effect here?

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Vokoban:

What is reflected in these polls is the coming out of the religious fascists in red states. They didn't trust McCain to be fascist enough before he insinuated Obama is a terrorist.

That has no meaning for the election, since these people live in states deeply red anyway.

There's no ther way to explain why the state polls are still showing Obama with clear leads.

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jonny87:

johncoz,

obamas support has definetly softened aswell, noted by rasmussen where obama now only has 42% solid support compared to 45% a week or so ago. mccain is gaining amongst some undecideds but he is also definelty making obama voters have second thoughts and im sure this will become more clear in the next few days. staying above 50% is especially important with obama compared to other candidates because his team anticipate him losing late deciders on election day 70/30

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douglasfactors:

According to Zogby, Obama's lead has increased among women and independents and remains stable among men, conservatives, and moderates.

Obama is up 1.1 and McCain .3 from a week ago.

Rejoice, boomshak!

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johncoz:

@boomshak,

"I am hoping Rasmussen tightens one more point today. We'll see."

I never prognosticate on unreleased polls. But you would be well aware that the trackers almost never move in step.

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saywhat90:

the numbers may simply be stablilizing from the economic crisis. that was the bounce obama received. number may hold steady at 4-6 points for obama once economic crisis began to become old news.

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maddiekat:

The Daily Kos only showed Obama with a 6 point advantage last night. Huh, they must of polled Missouri..Lol

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zoot:

Clinton never understood that delegate counts were more important than piling up a massive PV lead, and Boomshak doesn't either. Take a look at the data from key states, including most recently MO, and start counting EVs.

Boomshak, I don't blame you for trying to spin data, but what you're overlooking is the insurmountable advantage Obama's campaign has in strategic planning, not just money. McCain is now forced to fight the battle on turf that should have been his by default, and his road to a victory is exceedingly narrow, turning on some combination of retaining CO, OH, FL and NV while peeling away one or more states that voted for Kerry in 2004.

Sure, that could happen, but using the national polling data to support a McCain surge doesn't provide any meaningful insight into how the EVs will fall. OTOH, strong Obama polling data sits on top of his massive on the ground organizational advantage, as evidenced in strategic state polling..

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douglasfactors:

boomshak:
Maybe Americans don't want their "wealth spread around" after all?

Is McCain proposing to end progressive taxation?

That should go over well.

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jonny87:

johncoz,

tightening on the daily trackers for zogby and (dramatically)daily kos is not a good start though. if id have to one way id say ras would tighten and thats not a good feeling

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johncoz:

jonny87, the soft penumbra of leaners may be a moveable feast over the next week (as I mentioned in my summary post at the head of this board). But I have yet to see any evidence that Obama's leaners are deserting him. Patience.

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Vokoban:

>I had heard he had $200 million in the bank. What the hell is he spending it on?

The obvious conclusion: what you heard is completely wrong. He's broke. Watch him drop out of race after race to fight an increasingly desperate fight in more and more battleground states.
Let Utah vote 250% for McCain. Count their votes ten-fold! It will make you feel good when looking at the nation polls. But it won't hurt Obama.

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Eternal:

@ Boom,

I fully realize this posting is a complete wast e of time but will post anyway.

I wish you would decide which polls you like, which you don't. Your ever changing opinion on the validity of pollsters depending if they produce good news for McCain *that day* makes you appear to lack basic integrity. Make your arguments, make them well but show some, any, honesty in the process.


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jonny87:

zoot,

come on. of course the states are going to move with the nationals(some more than others) i think ohio and florida will move quite strongly with the trackers. indiana will move away once again. NC will look extremely tough

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jonny87:

johncoz,

its much easier to keep leaners if your a boring old white guy. but if your a black guy, with a foreign name, a crazy pastor and everyones talking about whether you were or wernt 'palling around with terrorists' i think its much more difficult to keep those leaners.

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jonny87:

...to add to that the comments about 'bitter' people in small towns and wanting to 'spread the wealth'

he did not offer a compelling case in the debate as to why he is the man for the job on the economy, instead he was just cool and calm. it would of been much better if the post debate analysis was...wow obama really showed the american people why he is the man to turn around the economy, rather than...obama was calm and mccain got a little angry.

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Vokoban:

Letterman knows where the bigots are: they're guests at his own show.

"Letterman asked two highly relevant questions: "Did you not have a relationship with Gordon Liddy?" and "Did you attend a fundraiser at his house?" McCain, looking confused, conceded to having "met" Liddy. After a commercial break, McCain added, "I know Gordon Liddy. He paid his debt, he went to prison.... I'm not in any was embarrassed to know Gordon Liddy."

That's an interesting response. Liddy is, of course, a convicted felon who has "acknowledged preparing to kill someone during the Ellsberg break-in 'if necessary'; plotting to murder journalist Jack Anderson; plotting with a 'gangland figure' to murder Howard Hunt to stop him from cooperating with investigators; plotting to firebomb the Brookings Institution; and plotting to kidnap 'leftist guerillas' at the 1972 Republican National Convention -- a plan he outlined to the Nixon administration using terminology borrowed from the Nazis." Liddy also once famously gave his supporters advice on how best to kill federal officials (he recommended shooting them in the head because they might be wearing flak jackets).

Despite this scandalous past, McCain has accepted thousands of dollars in contributions from Liddy, attended a fundraiser in his honor at Liddy's home, and told Liddy that he's "proud of" him."

(Quoted from http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015229.php)

Vote McCain! Cause Obama is palling around with terrorists.

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maddiekat:

jonny87

At least boobshak has the balls to spin everything in favor of his candidate. You my friend are a troll!

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muckinello:

The race is tightening. R2K/DailyKos has Obama +6 Thursday (after +12 and +10 days). Tomorrow's poll will be much closer.
This was also expected (too nice to think of a runaway). However, this should just push the dems to work harder. We still have the upper hand, let's turn out the vote!
Early voting is going great (2-3 times the previous elections). Let's keep it up for 18 more days!

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jonny87:

maddiekat,

i can live with being called a troll for 3 weeks, but can the american people last another four years of george bush's policies

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johncoz:

jonny, when reading polls one starts with the evidence, from which interpretation may flow. Not the other way around.

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muckinello:

And.. as soon as one thinks there are bad news... Obama +6 in MO (Ras)

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jonny87:

the evidence

pre debate...obama did not show leadership through the financial crisis(he could and should of)...gallup and ras has his lead halving in a little more than a week

post debate...he did not have a great debate...daily kos shows significant tightening and zogby shows some tightening(although zogby should never be taken to seriously)

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mysticlaker:

Diageo/Hotline for 10/16:

Obama - 50
McCain- 40

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jonny87:

johncoz,

just seen the hotline numbers...what were you saying about starting with the evidence before interpretation...lol

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zotz:

Rasmussen reporting Obama up by 6% in Missouri. That doesn't sound like collapsing support to me. If Missouri goes blue that definately indicates a huge Obama victory.

"Fraudulent Votes Cast in New Mexico"
It is very telling that Boom gives us these "reports" without identifying the source.
He gets all his "information" from www.wingnutwacko.com! LOL!!!

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johncoz:

jonny, in psephology evidence means the number, the method and maths used in producing those numbers, and an understanding of the demographics behind those numbers.

Interpretation, or worse unsupported opinion, is about who had a good debate or who showed leadership, etc etc.

There are thousands of talking heads revelling in the latter; precious few doing the former.

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bmrKY:

"s.b.:

The race has tightened all you Obama howler monkeys"

Howler monkeys? You are a pathetic, low-life loser. Almost as bad as BOOM****.

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bmrKY:

"mysticlaker:
Diageo/Hotline for 10/16:

Obama - 50
McCain- 40"

OMG! TIED RACE FOR MUH-KANE BAH SUNDEE BAH GAWD!

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jonny87:

johncoz

explain how this should not be included as evidence...Ras 8 point margin to four, gallup 11 point margin to 6???

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao, the race can tighten all it wants. If McCain can't even win Missouri (O+6) its over.

Colorado 50.4 44.6 Obama +5.8
Ohio 48.9 45.7 Obama +3.2
Florida 49.8 45.0 Obama +4.8
Nevada 49.2 46.2 Obama +3.0
Missouri 49.3 46.8 Obama +2.5
North Carolina 47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2
Virginia 51.8 43.7 Obama +8.1

mcCain needs ALL of them, lol.

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modrat:

These numbers were always expected to tighten. The State number should tighten as well. From most of what I can see the numbers are moving McCain up more than Obama down. McCain is finaly acting normal and doubts about him are easing a bit.

I look to McCain to do something quite eratic again to move the numbers back. But I really do not see any way that Obama will win by more than 3 points nationaly. We are too devided as a nation.

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jonny87:

kerrchdavis,

if the race tightens most of them will be out of play. Virginia though should still be good and CO will not follow the national trends as strongly as other states.

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johncoz:

@jonny87:
"explain how this should not be included as evidence...Ras 8 point margin to four, gallup 11 point margin to 6???"

Please re-read my first post of the day, and look at the graph. McCain has seen a rise of 1.7 points over the course of seven days (as it was bound to do); Obama's support has remained steady. Add MOE (and a few other factors) and it's all clear.

As long as Obama continues to hold his level of support, he wins -- particularly given his advantage on the electoral map.

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Trosen:

jonny87..

your disguise is starting to wear thin.. put a little more rouge on..

As for McCain "catching up." They have accomplished what they really wanted to. They have fired up the base. (Because hate and fear always fire up the far-right GOP base quite well). And so the base has now kicked in a few points. Problem is, as we see today, the crucial states are not swinging wildly McCain's way. In fact, you have some places like MO slipping further away. I still see zero evidence that the majority of this McCain "surge" is anything but really Red states or red "pockets" are consolidating for McCain. As for debate reaction, you won't really get a good feel for that until this weekend's polls. Sometimes it trickles in after a full day of polling, but it usually takes a good 2 or 3, especially in the trackers. And while debate reaction may not thrust Obama back to double digits, it's not gonna help McCain.. you can bet on that.

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tjampel:

GWU Battleground tracking has it
47-40 for Obama.

This is a 5-6 point race. It will tighten to a 3-4 pointer in the next week or so. The test is whether the Ad buys and appearances in battleground states + GOTV will make it a landslide or a semi-nailbiter.

Hard to see the Obama support simply eroding to the point where he'll lose, and you've got to factor in targeted GOTV, enthusiasm, and new registrations in your model. Gallup LV2 does factor in the latter 2 and Nate at fivethirtyeight thinks this is the better model.

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tjampel:

given the downward trend in Ras recently it's a bit surprising that the race stays at +4; must have been a decent polling day yesterday for Obama or a bad Obama number dropping off from Monday

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Mike In Maryland:

jonny87,

How many elections have you observed? Especially Presidential elections?

Personally, I've observed and taken interest in every election since the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon election. That makes 12 past elections, this one is the 13th. I also had a fleeting interest in the 1956 election (moreso the national conventions than the election itself, though). There are important things you can learn about elections the more elections you observe or participate in.

If this is your first, second or third election, then don't get your knickers all wrapped up in a tight bundle. You might damage some important parts of the anatomy if you do.

The most important thing I've learned in all those elections is what I learned in Jr. High School civics - the Presidential election is won or lost by the number of Electoral College votes a candidate receives, NOT by the total raw national vote count. And if you observed the election in 2000, Gore won the popular vote, but Shrub won the Electoral College vote because he won the five most important votes that year - five judges sitting on the US Supreme Court.

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oicu:

@boomshak:

You probably spend all day watching Fox News. McCain wouldn't need to advertise there since it's one long McCain advertisement anyway.

I too am in NC Triangle area and have seen lots of McCain ads as well as getting the idiotic robocalls.

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carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 45

Average: Obama 49.4 McCain 43.6

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7

*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)

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PortlandRocks:

Obama up 6 in MO! Electoral dominance continues!:) You know thugs, the way elections are WON:) HAHA!

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joethedummer:

boomcrack = boring

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KipTin:

I do not watch Fox News, but here is some polling data from Rasmussen yesterday that shows voters actually consider Fox News more "balanced" than MSNBC (did not need a poll for that one) and CNN--

"55% Say Media More Biased This Year in Campaign Coverage"

Asked to rate the three major cable news channels in the latest survey, sizable percentages say the coverage on both CNN and MSNBC is biased in favor of Obama....

MSNBC: Fifty-one percent (51%) say MSNBC’s coverage is biased to help Obama, while 28% say it is unbiased. 52% of unafilliated voters think the network leans toward Obama.

CNN: Forty-six percent (46%) say CNN’s coverage is biased to help Obama, but 33% say it is unbiased. Forty-five percent (45%) of unaffiliateds say CNN is biased in favor of Obama, but 32% says its coverage is unbiased.

Thirty-nine (39%) say coverage on Fox is biased to help McCain, but a plurality of voters (42%) rate Fox News as unbiased in terms of political coverage. Forty-four percent (44%) of unaffiliated voters say Fox favors the Republican, but 40% rate its coverage as unbiased.

Summary of biased/unbiased rating:
MSNBC: 51%/28%
CNN: 46%/33%
Fox: 39%/42%

Note that the unaffiliated numbers pretty well agree with overall polling.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/55_say_media_more_biased_this_year_in_campaign_coverage

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From New York Times:
“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?"

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Jay Leno: "And Barack Obama continues to lead in the polls. Barack said today if it wasn't for Fox News, he might be up two or three more points in the polls. So apparently, five of the six news channel openly rooting for him isn't enough."

------
Bottom line: Obama and Obamanation putting down Fox News is not smart considering voter (and nighttime comic) perceptions.


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mahlers5th:

@ Boomshak: "You know, if McCain can pull this off, the entire MSM may commit mass suicide."

Promise? I'll settle for Olbermann.

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Paul:

Already voted: Obama 69%, McCain 28%

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