10/26-28, 08; 1,203 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 49, McCain 44
This is the nine-day graph of the weighted averages for the 3-day trackers.
which is fairly self-explanatory. In nine days we are now back at pretty much the same place. The number to watch over the next few days will be Obama's support. As long as he continues to track at 50% or higher he is in pretty good shape.
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:20 AM
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:21 AM
Thanks for the graph. I think even voters are getting a bit fatigued by the apparent stability of the race and ready to start voting.
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:26 AM
In your chart BO starts at 50 and goes to 50.5 after 9 days. Sydney starts off at 45 and goes to 45.5 after 9 days. That is not stability. That is undecides splitting 50/50 and 9 days running off the clock. That is dire news for Sydney.
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:28 AM
Trending toward the PREDICTED 51% to 48% "national" finish.
Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia trending even more toward Obama. I voted early in VA and a group of 7 people in front of me were recent registered Lation voters - all supporting Obama.
I also got polled by RAS yesterday and said I was a Dem for McCain - just wanted to tighten the polls to get the vote out!
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:30 AM
New AP/GFK state polls:
Obama 50 McCain 41
Obama 45 McCain 43
Obama 52 McCain 40
Obama 55 McCain 37
Obama 48 McCain 46
Obama 48 McCain 41
Obama 52 McCain 40
Obama 49 McCain 42
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:32 AM
Johncoz, thanks for the daily update. As you sayi it's self explanatory. Would it be possible that the boost in Obama's support with a peak on friday could be due to Powell's endorsment?
i hope the trackers give us better numbers today!
if RAS gets O+4 today you will be responsible for the trolls invasion!!
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:34 AM
"That is dire news for Sydney."
Oh, I agree. Worse is what's been happening in the battlegrounds such as Ohio, Florida and Nevada.
He needs to drag Obama below 49% nationally, and have that move reflected in the key State polling if he is to have a prayer.
Zogby up. BO increases lead by .5. Shows as a full percent but its only .5. Eiter way Nat polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the race. State polls especially in CO, VA, NC, NH, OH and FL are important and BO appears to haveput CO, NH and VA away - - essentially locking in 270+ EVs. If any of IN, OH, FL, MO, NC, NV stay with BO on election day that just adds to the win. Right now NV, OH and FL all look to be O+4 - O+7.
Not sure how the EC turns around on a dime at this point. I wonder if anyone will talk about Sydney funding a terrorist or recklessly running over some kid and having the Navy cover it up. Probably not with the BO infomercial tonight.
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:36 AM
Obama will close the deal tonight.
AP POLLS UP
The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Obama can earn 252 by merely reclaiming states won by John Kerry in 2004. There are only two Kerry states still in contention — Pennsylvania with 21 votes and New Hampshire with four — and AP-GfK polls show Obama leading both by double digits.
Ohio alone has 20 electoral votes. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9 and Virginia 13.
In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling, two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Obama is throwing his time and money into the Sunshine State, which has 27 votes, part of a strategy to create many routes to victory and push toward a landslide of 300 or more electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 votes.
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:41 AM
"Would it be possible that the boost in Obama's support with a peak on friday could be due to Powell's endorsment?"
I think there were a variety of factors, but Powell was almost certainly one. More interesting is the nature of the movement. I suggested about two weeks ago that there would be some back and forward movement of the soft penumbra of support for both. This is likely to continue.
Rasmussen's suggestion last week that "certain" O/M support stands at 48/39 is, I think, a very important statistic
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:43 AM
according to someone who had premium access certain support changed to 46-41 on monday. the 'spread the wealth' and 'guarantee a crisis' gaffes are not helpful!
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:46 AM
"already voted" numbers from ap state polls:
Colorado: 57-34 Obama
Florida: 45-38 Obama
Nevada: 56-33 Obama
New Hampshire: 52-34 Obama
North Carolina: 59-33 Obama
Ohio: 56-28 Obama
Pennsylvania: 65-22 Obama
Virginia: 67-23 Obama
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:50 AM
TRANSCRIPT OF THE OBAMA/KHALIDI VIDEO TAPE JUST RELEASED (AND IT'S BAD, REAL BAD)...
HERE IT IS:
****BEGINNING OF TRANSCRIPT***********
Um….My distinguished guests….ughh….it is an honor to be here…
uhh….It is truly refreshing to be surrounded by such a large group of people in which…uh.. I can truly see eye-to-eye with…uh…and completely agree…
Reverend Farrakhan..ughh…great to see you tonight…you always look great in a yellow bow-tie…and..uhh…tonight is no exception….
Bill Ayers..Bernadine….I see you everyday…so I don’t need to say much…but…ughh…you know I love you….keep doing the work you do….it’s time to start a revolution
Reverend Wright…..ughh…you are the father that I never had….I’ve never missed a sermon…and…uhh….I never will…
Michelle, while I find your frown so beautiful….I hope to one day make you proud of this country..and uhh…happy…and finally see you smile….
uhhhhh…with that being said…If everyone could please hold off from hitting the hookah…I would like to say a toast..to my, and Yasser Arafat’s, best friend….Mr. Rashid Khalidi….
Rashid…..you are my best friend….spiritual compass…..and baby sitter (crowd laughs..and cries)
I want to thank you for your constant indoctrination….I want to thank you for your imput..and..uhhh…reminders…that Israel is a constant sore….and..uhh…needs to be eliminated off the map….
I also want to thank you for introducing me to your many contacts in the middle east…I am sure…uh…that their imput……and uh…money…..will be of great use to me as I run for President of these great 57 states…..
While David Axelrod may be forcing you to move away from me during the campaign….I am confident…that..uhh…our friendship will not only remain..but actually prosper..during our time of absence….
Rashid…you ARE my middle east adviser….and you ALWAYS will be…
Here’s to Rashid……(A chant of Messiah can be heard in the background….also audible…is a voice (thought to be Ayer’s) screaming REVOLUTION…REVOLUTION..over and over…)
**************END OF TRANSCRIPT*************
IN LIGHT OF THE LOS ANGELES TIMES NOT RELEASING THEIR COPY OF THE TAPE….CONSIDER THIS PROBABLE TRANSCRIPT TO BE ACCURATE, AND FEEL FREE TO DISTRIBUTE IT TO ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY SO THAT THEY CAN MAKE AN HONEST ASSESSMENT OF SENATOR OBAMA, PRIOR TO CASTING THEIR VOTE
If any Obamabots object to my writing, please call the Los Angeles Times, and convince them to release the original copy to prove me wrong.
L.A Times Contact Information:
Los Angeles Times
202 W. 1st St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Phone: (213) 237-5000
Fax: (213) 237-7679
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:52 AM
No chance McCain wins in VA -- Webb, Warner, Kaine -- all have campaigned so hard for Obama in the Fairfax, Prince William, Richmond, and Norfolk areas (that is 90% of VA population)...
If you get the chance to listen to Tim Kaine talk policy in detail - you would have wanted him named as the VP candidate. The rally yesterday was off the charts with the trio of Kaine, Warner, Obama...
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:55 AM
During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.
A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank: CPRS" on page 14 of this PDF.)
The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi's group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of "sociopolitical attitudes."
Posted on October 29, 2008 6:58 AM
good early voting splits. but wheredo the remaining votes go 10-15% go? all to mccain? or just a split with people not wanting to say who they voted for?
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:01 AM
Boomy. You are comedy gold.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:02 AM
I was laughing so much at your ridiculous (or is that rediculous) post I lost my train of thought.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:04 AM
you worry too much. chill out and enjoy, or you'll burst a blood vessel before tuesday night and miss all the fun :-)
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:12 AM
Not a happy morning for John McCain.
Doesn't appear to be one for boom either, personally I don't see what he sees in John McCain other than their common interest in skirt lifting!
Back on the poll, useful graph update Johncoz,the key threshold for Obama is the 50%, things are looking stable, if dynamic for Obama, he can really close the deal tonight.
With 6 days togo would you rather be in Obama's position or McCain's?
Entering the home straight as boomshak conceded to me back in September, if obama led by 5% with a week to go he'd win.
Not taking anything for granted GOTV will give Obama an historic landslide and mandate to unite the country in a common purpose of renewal.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:14 AM
The LATimes is going with the "We promised our source we would not release the tape" line of bullsh*t.
Ok, if there is NOTHING BAD on the tape that would hurt Obama, why did the source make them promise not to release it? Why did the source provide something they did not want released to a news organization? How about releasing a full transcript then? Who gives a video tape to a news organization and then say "no one is allowed to see this videotape"?
Answer, they don't. The LATimes is lying. Republicans have been demanding this video tape for months and this is the first we have heard of the "our source made us promise not to" defense.
So, we must ask ourselves, what IS so bad on this tape that it cannot be released? I mean, hell, it's just a party isn't it?
Would the LATimes be so concerned about "keeping their promises" if this was a tape of John McCain at a KKK Rally"? Is the LATimes concerned about releasing Top Secret US Intelligence Data for our enemies to see?
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:16 AM
Wow, things are really going bad for the McCain camp :-)
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:17 AM
Rasmussen down to 3 according to drudge. McCain must have had a great day 2 days ago to drop by 3 there, but it must be starting to stabilize at 4-5 since.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:19 AM
Do you have any idea what a SEXIST comment that was? You are talking about the most popular Governor in America and you imply that McCain's only interest in her is sexual?
You f*cking misogynist.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:20 AM
Huh? McCain has closed to within 2-5 points in most major national polls after being down 12 last week. Obama is 100% on the defensive trying to explain that he is not a Socialist.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:22 AM
I have a feeling a certain little TROLL whose name begins with a "Boom" and ends with a "shak" will not be "pimping" these new AP state polls the way he and other crazy neocons did the AP national poll that showed Obama only up by 1 last week. You see, "Boom" is very selective in the polls he decides to view as accurate, aka write off all of the polls showing any movement toward Obama, and only accept polls that show movement toward McCain... even if they ALL show Obama with a lead, even the ones with 45% of the respondents identifying as "evangelical." Afterall, this is the only accurate way to look at polls... if you are a crazy, bat**** crazy neoconservative.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:23 AM
Obama is 100% on the defensive trying to explain that he is not a Socialist.
in which of your parallel dimensions? I remember Palin having to explain 150K$ clothes and McCain having to explain Palin.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:24 AM
So why are you so desperate? :-)
DAILYKOS POLL TODAY: O 50, M 45 - OUCH!
The new DailyKos poll is out and the moonbats must be going crazy. Even this bullsh*t poll with a 26% Republican Sample has a new one day polling of O+5.
So Obama only leads by 5 in a poll where only 1/4 of the respondents are Republicans. That means that a hell of a lot of Democrats are starting to go McCain.
This poll can't be good news for Obama. he was aheaf by 14 here just last week. Tha's a 9 point haircut!
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:25 AM
DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos DailyKos
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:27 AM
LAT already did a full report on this months ago. All I can say, is nothing to see, move on. As for the provenance of the tape, has it occurred to you it could have come from the Hillary campaign, who would have made the caveat in order for this issue not to be distorted by you guys down the track. In any case, McCain would have some explaining to do about his own connections.
Meanwhile, if sludge is right you are in for a good day with Ras and Gallup. Look forward to the day :-)
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:28 AM
Boom, since you can drop the F-bomb and get away with it, so can I:
Boom****, go **** yourself!
So the poll that shows a candidate up by 5 with 5 days to go "can't be good news" for him. If I thought you were serious I would suggest professional help, but I know you just get your kicks by posting this nonsense
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:30 AM
I just wander what will boomshak say when Gallup comes out with its numbers. Yesterday, the man was Zogby. Rasmussen was on the bad "kid" list. Today Rasmussen is the man and Zogby is on the bad "kid" list. Will Gallup be on the bad "kid" list? We'll see "kids."
Boom. You do know that comparing single night results is point less. Were talking a 363 sample size with a +5.1 moe.
That said it does appear that McCain's soft support is coming home a bit.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:31 AM
Details on AP/GfK.
A word on GOTV. Remember 2004? Apparently everything was going Kerry's way due to a surperior GOTV, until the evening arrived and we really started to figure out what was going on. This is just to say, I know it's not 2004 and I'm pretty sure Obama will win this but you just never know.
Boom, you are a disgrace to your party, state, and country. I am ashamed to be a fellow homo sapien. Of course, you are not sapien so I'll just admit that you're a homo.
PS So as not to cause a flame war for those who don't know latin for my pun: 'Sapien' means 'wise', 'Homo' means 'human'
I wonder how the NEOCON/NEONAZI trolls will spin the new AP battleground numbers?
They loved the AP national poll last week. Now watch them run away from it in horror. Time is quickly beginning to run out for John McCain, boom. Just accept this and begin your work for Romney 2012. At least you wouldn't be wasting your time trying to spin what is beginning to be accepted by many conservatives as a lost cause.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:33 AM
Before boom was cherrypicking one poll a day. Now is cherrypicking on day of a 3 days rolling average of one pollster. By sunday he will cherry pick one phone call of one hour of one day of one (friendly) pollster
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:34 AM
Uhm...DailyKos: see the numbers of Obama: He is at 50-52 for a month...even today. What does it mean? McCain can't win the election because there is no real drop of the Obama numbers.
You are so funny 50-44
Single day yesterday 50-45.
McCain is in quicksand struggling for breath.
How are things in NC?
There's a video tape of McShame with Osama ben laden mollah omar and saddam hussein.
Did you see it?
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:36 AM
I think that the most hillarious thing of all is the polls in PA. Man, doesn't matter how much McCain invest in the state, nothing happens with Obama's support :-)
Quinnipiac Obama, 53 McCain 41
Associated Press/GfK, Obama 52 McCain 40
Franklin & Marshall, Obama 53 McCain 40
Rasmussen, Obama 53 McCain 46
Morning Call, Obama 53 McCain 41
InAdv/PollPosition, Obama 51 McCain 42
Mark my words: Obama will get at least 53% of the vote in PA!!!
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:41 AM
MORE SHOCKING PALIN SCANDAL TO ROCK THE ELECTION
Guys, I don't want to say how I got this info, but there is a HUGE new video tape that Drudge has linking Sarah Palin to CONVICTED Alaska senator Ted Stevens. All I can say is that it involves MONEY LAUNDERING and A SEX SCENE WITH SCREECH FROM SAVED BY THE BELL!
Drudge is releasing the tape today, but only to his boyfriend/lover Zogby. This tape is said to be EXPLOSIVE and will blow the campaign WIDE OPEN! Look for an Obama lead of +500,000,000 in tomorrows polls.
THIS IS A HUGE BREAKING DEVELOPMENT!
CNN, FOX and MSNBC will have more on it at 8 A.M. this morning. Be sure to tune in. Needless to say, it's gonna be a SHOCKING revelation to all the Palin supporters out there!
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:42 AM
Marking your words: How are things down Florida way?
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:43 AM
the best part of McCain going all-in on PA is that they are giving Obama Nevada, Ohio and Florida. In the end, the PA strategy will be considered the biggiest factor in the Obama landslide.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:46 AM
Look Obama just as Kerry and Gore will get around 40% of the white vote in FL. Obama will get virtually all the black vote, which is better than Kerry and Gore. The key will be the Hispanic vote. Right now Obama is doing better than Kerry and Gore among Hispanics, but McCain is here in Miami to campaign among Cubans who are the base of the Republican support in the Hispanic community. So, we don't know if that will be enough to bring those on the fence back to the Republican fold.
Above everything, I think that the keystone of Obama's success in the state will be turnout. Obviously things are going well in the early voting, but there are some things on the ballot that should bring conservatives out to vote. For or against gay marriage? :-)
*Jews are all the way behind Obama, so that should help.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:52 AM
Yep. McCain CONTINUES to trail by double digits in Pennsylvania!
As it's been said on here before, there are no happy mornings for John McCain. Congratulations BoomSHAT, John is going to get 47% of the national vote and Obama isn't going to win the national vote by double digits. Whoopdie ****. He will still win the national vote by more than your current neocon nutcase/war criminal President. A win is a win (except for Florida 2000). Obama support remains rock solid at 50 or above; on-the-fence republicans are returning home to McCain, just as everyone predicted. Woohoo! Go throw yourself a party.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:53 AM
It looks and sounds that it is very very tight again this year.
Much would appear to depend on 2nd generation Hispanics voting Democratic.
Posted on October 29, 2008 7:56 AM
For a Democrat is always close. You've got to understand that Florida is a Republican state. If Hispanics in Florida were like Hispanics in the rest of the country, Florida could be firmly on the Democratic column; however, these people are Cuban and they are staunchly Republican. I don't think that their kids are much more different. Sadly, in the Hispanic community voting patterns and political ideology pass onto one generation to the other.
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:01 AM
Obama SURGES in Zogby!! .4 gain with 6 days to go!!!
The civil war in the McCain camp is finally affecting the opinion of voters.
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:02 AM
Boomshak: Maybe I am just naive, but maybe there is no tape at all showing what the LA Times suggest. In any event: the transcript is obviously satire (and quite funny).
I have been following the US elections with great interest and Pollster has become my most frequented source. I enjoy both the in depth analysis but also the high flying arguments between the "Obamabots" and the "McSame" supporters.
As I am Dutch, my thoughts might not be woth much in this, but want to share it with you nonetheless.
McCain is an interesting candidate. His past shows without a doubt that he cares deeply for the US, a country many of the nations of the world are endebted to, including my own. His record does show that he at times dared to go against his own party and as I understand has taken a more liberal position than many of his party on several issues. His age should not disqualify him. Mitterand was 72 when he was elected president of France for the second time in 1988, and he too had recovered from cancer. And he was elected for 7 years!
What does disqualify McCain is my view is his running mate. I fully admit that this is the result of me being a complete "moonbat". As many Dutch, I am, for US standards, liberal squared. If Obama is a socialist (or even communist), I am more marxist than Marx himself.
In any event: I strongly believe that religion and state should be seperated and that is something which I do not see happening with Palin around.
The US constitution is something to admire. The freedom of religion is a shining example for many other nations. However, If the US wants to bring democracy to the rest of the world, such as in Iraq, it will work in its detriment if it soaks its policies and identity in Christian values. It will only create distrust. Lead by example, as the US did after WWII with the Marshall plan, not by force. I am convinced that force feeds the hatred in the Muslim world, and hatred feeds fundamentalists.
That is exactly the reason why I prefer Obama. He is willing to go down the path of diplomacy, by sitting down without preconditions with people who may be unscrupulous, but who do have power. Peace and prosperity will dry up the drinking well of fundamentalists. Or at least, I believe it will in my naïvité.
Anyway, my two cents worth, if it is that much.
Oh, and to finish off, a nice quote attributed to Voltaire: "I disagree with what you have to say but will fight to the death to protect your right to say it."
That is what freedom of speech is about. But that does not mean that we have to leave common decency at the doorstep. Although I disagree with Boomshak on many things, I regret that many resort to namecalling in their replies to him.
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:07 AM
Well I come from a Democratic family, and I am pleased to say my son is voting for Obama in Texas!
So I don't hold it against the Cubans.
I am really looking forward to Obama's message tonight.
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:10 AM
You are such a loser...dissing Daily Kos for months...now touting them...what a freaking joke you are..exactly why your party in in the toilet
As far as your alleged video...be careful what you wish for:
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:48 AM
Many times many people have asked you to provide us with a path to 270 Electoral College votes for McCain. You have never responded. So I've taken the initiative for you.
Let's look at the McCain path to 270:
If he wins all the Pollster.com dark red states, he will accrue 123 Electoral College votes. Add in the pink states and he is up to 142 EC votes. Add in all the yellow states and he is at 227.
Now we get into Obama states.
If McCain wins all those that Pollster.com has colored light blue, he is up to 266. But he needs more than that to win. In fact, he needs 270 or more Electoral College votes to win, as a 269-269 EC vote goes to the House, and only the delusional think the House would vote for a McCain win. And if it's 269-269, is there ANYONE who thinks the Senate as a whole would vote for Palin as Vice-President?
With 270 EC Votes needed to win the Presidency, that means that McCain needs one of the dark blue states that has more than 3 EC votes (at least an 8 point Pollster.com lead).
Which one will it be if he is to win? Which of the above states will he NOT win? Will that loss mean he needs even more EC votes from the dark blue states than the one that he already needs?
Does he even have a reasonable chance of winning 266 EC votes, how and why?
Instead of all the BS you usually spew out here, how about being an adult, and tell us what path McCain has to go to win 270 EC votes?
We have a different spirit over here on this side of the pond. We have a more self-reliant attitude that doesn't believe the government is the solution to problems, but is most of the time the problem itself. The large support for Obama is primarily because of the economic conditions, which are not solely attributable to either party. But, as Americans are fond of doing, they like to punish the party in the WH when things go bad ... look back to 1980 and the Reagan/Carter election. Ultimately, I think if Obama/Pelosi/Reid push us too far toward the left, the center-right majority of our country will rebel and they will lose their majority quickly.
The real problem is that 99% of Americans are not as engaged in politics and political theory as the zealots (from both sides) that write on this site. The think too generally and think about punishing politicians. They aren't in tune enough to realize that every economy suffers ups and downs. When a policy, like encouraging sub-prime lending, leads to a situation like today, they don't think "we need to make some corrections". Instead, they think "thrown the whole damn thing in the trash heap and start over." It really is ridiculous, but that's just the way we are.
So, this election, much to my dismay, the democrats will be invited in from the wilderness and the republicans will be sent out, but soon, the tides will turn and it will be reversed. Why? Because government is the cause of problems, not the solution, but many people want it to be the solution. Ultimately, every government will fail at that task and so, in a ridiculous attempt to achieve utopia, Americans will continue to revolve the parties in and out of power to no avail. One day, maybe, it will become obvious to the larger part of the American population that if you want it, you're going to have to get there on your own, as it should be. Until then, I assume our government will continue to grown into an even greater monolithic albatross around the neck of our society.
Posted on October 29, 2008 9:02 AM
McCain camp higher ups, have openly said that McCains Healthcare plan would make the problems with our healthcare system much worse if they were put into effect.
McCain camp(Mitt's people) calling Palin a wack job, and Diva.
McCain had to call off a rally in PA on Tuesday, not because of the rain, because no one SHOWED UP. Less them 50 people were there.
On the same day only 50 miles away Obama held a rally where 20,000 people showed up.
Boom Face it man its over.
Sorry man the election is over.
Also This is why McCain will lose.
He is an old gent, in his eighties, but a hale and hearty one, wiry and strong.
Ernie said that he'd never smoked, and drank but little, and watched what he ate.
These all good things, considering that he needed to work, and the work he did required him to lift bags — sometimes heavy, hard-shelled golf bags — for the businessmen who rode his rental car shuttle to and from the St. Louis airport.
He had been reared a Democrat, he said, as had nearly everyone in St. Louis in those days. It was Truman's time in Missouri — a state with more than a dram of Southern Comfort in its blood.
In recent decades, Ernie had voted for Republicans from time to time. But considering recent economic events, he said it was time to return to his ancestral political roots.
And then, in a tone that was as much confession as joy, he told me sheepishly: "I'm gonna vote for the colored boy. I like the way he's talkin'."
I think of Ernie, who I encountered when I went out to St. Louis for the vice presidential debate, when I hear all the talk about the so-called Bradley effect.
Even non-political junkies know the idea: some whites harbor racist beliefs and won't admit to polltakers what they really think, which is that they would never vote for an African-American.
But assuming that there is indeed a Bradley effect (named for the late mayor of Los Angeles), what if there's an opposite?
I'll call it the Ernie Effect — voters, especially older or more conservative voters in Red States, who don't want to readily admit to neighbors (or pollsters) that they plan to go into the voting booth and pull the lever for Barack Obama.
"What usually happens in larger races with an African-American candidate is that undecideds — usually less political, less educated — just break against him en masse," said Democratic consultant Jim Jordan.
But, it's also "conceivable," he said, "that in some parts of the country — the South, the rural Midwest — that there’s a certain stigma, among white working class men, that attaches to an Obama vote."
The Ernie Effect could exist anywhere, but in this election, it’s being most closely watched, naturally enough, in conservative-leaning battleground states.
And Obama’s recent travels in a lot of those states appears to be further evidence that he and his campaign believe in the Ernie Effect – even if they never met the man.
Yes, they are flush with cash, ridiculously so, but these shrewd and meticulous people wouldn't be wasting candidate time and ad money in states such as West Virginia if they didn't think that whatever Bradley Effect there might be canceled out by a possible Ernie Effect.
So on Election Night, keep a close eye on the exit polls as they compare with the actual raw vote. Look for semi-rural or exurban places where Obama is supposed to get his clock cleaned, but where – if I’m right – the senator from Illinois may do better than the exits show.
In particular, look at the toss-up states – all of them red in recent years: North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia – and yes, Missouri.
Then we'll know how many Ernies there really are
Posted on October 29, 2008 9:07 AM
@Mike in Maryland
Here is McCain's path to 270: FL, GA, AL, MS, SC, AR, LA, TN, TX, KY, WV, IN, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, ID, WY, UT, AZ, OH, NC, NV, MO = 252 ... then he has to take either PA, or some combination of CO, NM, VA & NH to get the other 18.
Posted on October 29, 2008 9:10 AM
@DutchO (and not oven)
"That is exactly the reason why I prefer Obama."
Good morning Dutch and thanks for sharing your well-reasoned international perspective. As is the case with you, I too enjoy the in-fighting that takes place on this board with "Boomer??". You know the one here that has this 'man-crush' on McCain. Here in the US, we accept our neocon nuts (bush, mccain, cheney, palin et. al.) reluctantly as fellow countrymen. We are concerned however with the continuing sanity of boomer and the other neocons post election. As evident on this board, we all are expecting boomer to 'blow a fuse' exactly at 12:01AM on the Nov 5th and suggest you keep your computer turned off to avoid any electro-magnetic surge that might be generated when all these nuts go off the deep end all at once.
Anyway, don't know what the immigration laws are for your country but please consider accepting boomer as a candidate. Not certain if he can accept his country in the future with a true leader in the future. We kinda suspect boomer prefers to be lead by the less intelligent types ... you know, the bush/palin types. The thought of being led by an intelligent Black man as POTUS just drives the wingnuts crazy. Think we should all start playing that Gnarls Barkley tune as a reminder of what has been done to the wacko's
Posted on October 29, 2008 9:49 AM
Boom your so stupid... Do you think a left wing slant sight like Daily Kos would report a 5 point lead by McCain and show the polls closing without reason?
Lol, the Kos is working to GOTV dumb arse. The number is at O +19 at this point but that number would make a lot of Dems stay at home. When its at O+5 I can assure you the polls will be a sea of blue come Tuesday.
Look at all the internals. Definitely Vote McCain numbers are in the 60's
I swear You can take the trash out of the trailer park but you can't take the trailer park out of the trash. Boom how many teeth do you still have in your head?
Posted on October 29, 2008 10:22 AM
Whatever 'Keep VA Red' says is from the far right Troglodyte political philosophy. Whatever he/she/it says is the thinking of the political Neanderthal conservatives, and is NOT representative of American political thinking.
The "government is the solution to problems, but is most of the time the problem itself" was one of Ronnie Raygun's favorite sayings, but did not then, nor does today, reflect the thinking of a majority of Americans.
When 'Keep VA Red' said '[t]he large support for Obama is primarily because of the economic conditions, which are not solely attributable to either party', he/she/it is explicitly neglecting to realize that most of the current economic conditions are the result of the deregulation of most markets, and allowing the markets to 'self-regulate'. Even former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, a promoter of government deregulation and supporter of 'self-regulation' admitted last week that the concept of 'self-regulation' didn't work, and was a concept that would NEVER work.
In short, whatever 'Keep VA Red' says is the philosophy of the far right and is nowhere near the thinking of a majority of Americans.
Posted on October 29, 2008 10:55 AM
Dutch O~ I've spent a year in your wonderful nation and admire both the fortitude, generosity, and distinctive culture (and subtly tweaking and often weird humor). Don't worry about us taking away Booms "freedom of speech"...we just want the right to taunt him in kind.
Think of it as being a bit like the folks that go down on Hyde Park corner in London.
The internet has turned into a place where people like Boom can express things that they may never have dared in front of polite company. Or would say in front of mommy. Spanking, washing their mouth out with soap, and other things might ensue.
Keep VA Red,
Thank you for the BS route to 270 for McCain.
Let's see -
Florida is (according to Pollster.com) at 2.8% for Obama today;
North Dakota is at 3.6% for Obama today;
Ohio is at 5.6% for Obama today;
North Carolina is at 1.9% for Obama today;
Nevada is at 4.7% for Obama today;
Missouri is at 1.8% for Obama today.
You think McCain will sweep all those states? ReallY? And even if he does, he will need to win 18 more Electoral College votes.
So let's throw in some more states:
Pennsylvania (21 EVs, enough to take him over 270) but where McCain is down by 10.7%;
or Colorado (9 EVs, short of the 18 needed) is at 6.6% for Obama today;
an/or New Mexico (5 EVs, short of the 18 needed) is at 6.5% for Obama today;
and/or Virginia (13 EVs, short of the 18 needed) is at 8% for Obama today;
and/or New Hampshire (4 EVs, short of the 18 needed) is at 9.3% for Obama today.
So basically, McCain needs Virginia (where he's down 8%) AND Colorado (where he's down 6.6%);
or Virginia (where he's down 8%) AND New Mexico (where he's down 6.5%);
or Colorado (where he's down 6.6%) AND New Mexico (where he's down 6.5%) AND New Hampshire (where he's down 9.3%) to get to 270 by your path.
How delusional and out of touch with reality are you? At boomshat's level?
Posted on October 29, 2008 11:26 AM
Zogby October 29 Internals of note:
West: Obama 49.8, McCain 45.5
Holding base: Obama 84.5, McCain 86.8
Independents: Obama 50.1, McCain 35.4
Already voted: Obama 52.3, McCain 41.5
Males: McCain 46.6, Obama 46.0
Females: Obama 52.2, McCain 42.2
Whites: McCain 52.1, Obama 41.0
Hispanic: Obama 65.3, McCain 30.5
AA: Obama 88.8, McCain 7.8
Moderates: Obama 63.0, McCain 28.7
Posted on October 29, 2008 8:47 PM
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