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US: Obama 49, McCain 44 (Zogby 10/29-31)

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10/29-31,08; 1,200 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Obama 49, McCain 44



Oh no, Drudge was right! McCain surges ahead! Obama peaked too early! He has no chance now! We're dooooomed!

Seriously though, let's get out the vote, everybody. I'm off to my county Democratic Party HQ to make some phone calls to battleground states.



Big surprise. People with nothing better to do on a Halloween Friday night than answer Zogby's phone calls, favor McCain. If they were answering the front door instead, handing out candy to neighborhood kids, would that make them Socialists?



This weekend will tell the tale. If Zogby's Friday polling is showing anything besides noise, then we'll probably see all the trackers drop 2 points by Monday. Last weekend the same thing happened.

That puts the difference at 2-3% on the day before the election (or, for Chris Matthews', the "erection ... of his heart"). Two points is a virtual dead heat.

Did anyone see Scharzeneggar's intro for McCain in Colombus, Ohio last night? Unbelievable. Let me assure all you Obamaiacs, Republican Ohio will get out the vote, big-time. Watch the video and the enthusiasm will jump out of your computer.




Another, "Look at me!" Zogby poll. There really needs to be some ethical rules set on polling.



What's the margin of error for Friday-only results? To speculate on them seems irresponsible.



I will take it a step further and bet that on a regular basis the daytime portion of the Zogby is more favorable for McCain than the night. Remember each day Zogby takes 1/2 their sample the previous night then the second half during the next day. They combine the two dayparts to equal one day. That means today's numbers are

Tuesday Night
Wednesday Morning
Wednesday Night
Thursday Morning
Thursday Night
Friday Morning

As Nate at 538 points out, this fact makes Zogby a trailing, not leading pollster. Everyone else has moved off Tuesday and is reporting a full Friday, while Zogby is still stuck on Tuesday night, history.

I would also bet that the Drudge/Zogby is the Friday Morning sample which they only broke out to make some news.

Zogby is trying to sell reports nothing more, nothing less.



200+ polling days show Obama with a significant lead. One polling day, from an inaccurate pollster using an outdated sampling methodology who has a distinct pro-Republican bias being paid by a news service to create a story line shows the race a dead heat and we should worry?



Shoot the messenger. That's the cry when they give a number you don't like.

To say Zogby favors the Repubs in his polling is to deny what he did this very week: he jumped the difference from 3 to 7 in one week. Nobody seemed to mind him then.

Now, when he notes a new trend, he's an idiot.

We'll see if he really is picking up something. My guess is it's a combination of noise, the vacillating nature of when in the week the polling occurs, and perhaps a hint of a real trend.

I'll hope for the latter.



Max no shoot the messenger, more laugh at the messenger.

I really do hope this story takes hold, I hope every MSM outlet in the country carries this story. I hope this story scares the crap out of Obama supporters, I really do.

That being said, even you must admit reporting this half sample, why do I say half sample because here is Zogby's quote.

*"McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%"*

As I mention above, Zogby splits his "samples" into 1/2 night + 1/2 next day. Anyway, if you want to beleive a 1/2 sample taken during the day with a MOE of at least 5pts on a daily please feel free.

I agree, McCain is in the lead, Obama is the underdog, democrats if you don't turn out McCain is going to win according to Zogby!!!!

Remind me to send Zogby a thank you card if Obama wins. I don't think the Obama team is upset the race is being played as close, they need this meme for turnout.



I will give any McCain supporter 4-1 odds and you can bet as much as you would like. This race is over, and thats just a fact. Irish bookmakers don't pay off weeks out if they aren't sure. Forget polls, look at Intrade and British Bookmakers who still have obama
1-9. GOP is doing what losing campaigns do at this point, rally the troops. Obama is doing what winners do, staying on message while working the groud with thousands of paid organizers and millions of volunteers. too many Democrats losing their heads over nonsense coming out of rick davis.



"RossPhx:People with nothing better to do on a Halloween Friday night than answer Zogby's phone calls, favor McCain. If they were answering the front door instead, handing out candy to neighborhood kids, would that make them Socialists?"

Actually, I suspect all the McCain supporters were home with their lights off, shouting at kids to "stay off my lawn", and wiring their campaign signs to electrocute any brats that might TP or egg their houses as "tricks" to the grumpy old white guys...who refuse to give out candy to the "freeloaders".



The poll in question was not from Friday night, it was from Thursday night and Friday Day. Zogby splits his daily samples into two days, that's why he is able to report so early and why he is a trailing sentiment pollster rather than leading. He never gets that days nightly news impact always the previous day.



Gallup disagress a little bit with Zogby and tells us 52-42 ...

I'd like to see both in an interview about this ;)

a 10 point lead in Gallup 72 hours before the election? Gallup wouldn't do that if there wasn't something to it, he has a reputation to lose.



AHHHHHH, Drudge is right? Look at this excerpt from the front page

"ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all..."

NASCAR voters? Hahaha, that's the same as polling African American demographic for Obama. Someone's getting desperate...



maybe you should think twice- PA is exactly where the CBC poll said it would be and the states are tightening. And the sample size was an incredible 10,500...Just thought I would point that out...



Zogby has more to win in predicting that Mc Cain will win, than in announcing that obama will win.



And here's Zogby as of Sunday...

Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Data from this poll is available here: http://www.zogby.com/salespage/2008tracking.cfm

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."


Funny. I don't think he put as much emphasis on this "one day does not make a trend"-thing yesterday - actually, yesterday it sounded more like "McCain 1 point ahead!!!"-stuff...


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