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US: Obama 49, McCain 45 (DemCorps-9/28-30)

Topics: PHome

Democracy Corps (D)
9/28-30/08; 1,000 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

National
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 2, Barr 1, Paul 0

Battleground States
Obama 50. McCain 44, Nader 2, Barr 1, Paul 0

 

Comments
boomshak:

4 to 5 point lead for Obozo. Nothing to see here, move along.

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VermontWisdom:

Nothing to see? Don't you see a rather uniform convergance of results no matter who the pollster? And the larger Battleground state lead for Obama seems to confirm the Q polls of earlier today.

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PortlandRocks:

Yep. Nothing here to see. Just more proof McCain is done:) Nice to see you back Boom. This must be a rather difficult day for the Thugs. Man McCain looks desperate bitching about polls and now releasing negative ads. It's fun to watch.

From Nate:

Quinnipiac broke its sample into two halves: pre-debate and post-debate. For all intents and purposes, these are two separate surveys, and so that's how I list them. Obama gained ground in the post-debate versions in all three states (OH, PA, and FL).

More importantly, however, the polls represent significant gains for Obama since the last time Quinnipiac had been in the field in early September, particularly in Florida, where he had been 7 points behind before.

The McCain camp is going a little crazy over these polls. Usually, when a campaign does something like that, it's worried about morale. But do their complaints have any basis in fact?

Quinnipiac's polls have shown a slight Democratic lean this cycle -- they've been 1-2 points more favorable to Dems than contemporaneous polls of their states. From what I can tell, their head of polling (Peter Brown) has fairly conservative politics, so I don't know that it can be called a partisan lean. But that is the side that the polls have tended to end up upon nevertheless.

At the same time, they are highly-rated polls, use large sample sizes, and have plenty of rich trendlines for comparison. Is it possible that they are outliers to a certain degree? Possibly -- maybe even probably -- but as I intimated yesterday, with Obama's surge nationally it was inevitable that we were eventually going to get an oh sh*t set of state polling for Obama. There clearly seems to have been some movement toward Obama in Florida, as well as in Pennsylvania, where the Morning Call tracker has had him gaining a point literally every day since its inception. Ohio, I am somewhat less convinced about, but InsiderAdvantage also gives him the lead there (as well as a 6-point lead in Virginia).

The most critical point may be that the McCain campaign now faces something of a Hobson's choice. In terms of states where they had hoped to play offense, Michigan began to break away from them a week or so ago, and now Pennsylvania -- which had initially reacted well to Sarah Palin -- seems to be doing the same. But if all they're doing is playing defense, that gives Obama so many scratch-off tickets -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and perhaps Indiana, Nevada, and Missouri -- that it's essentially inevitable that he'll get lucky in one or more of those states, several of which he already appears to have the lead in.

My gut instinct if I were the McCain campaign is that it might be time to pick one of Pennsylvania and Michigan -- whichever state my internals liked better -- and consolidate my offense there. McCain certainly can't be spending time in Iowa, where he spent much of yesterday, but where he has never led a single public poll against Obama.

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faithhopelove:

The battleground numbers (Obama +6) must concern McCain folks--especially given the fact that this group of states includes MT, where McCain has opened up a lead, as well as IN and MO, where McCain maintains modest leads. If Obama leads DC's battlegrounds by 6, then he is almost certainly ahead in most if not all of the remaining states of CO, IA, FL, MI, MN, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

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RussTC3:

Why are they polling for Paul? As far as I know, he's only on the Montana ballot and has endorsed the Constitution Party nominee, Chuck Baldwin.

I wonder how Paul is polling in Montana.

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boomshak:

JUST AS I PREDICTED YESTERDAY:

Gallup Daily: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Slightly closer race now than two days ago
October 1, 2008

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters finds Barack Obama at 48%, and John McCain at 44%, marking a slight narrowing of the race from the 8-point margin Obama held earlier this week.

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mysticlaker:

Boom does not like trends...

Goodbye Boom.

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boomshak:

MY PREDICTIONS YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen: O+5
Hotline: O+5
Gallup: O+4

Only missed on Rasmussen by 1. Man I'm good.

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NYClassicalLiberal:

I really don't think Nader is getting 2%. But to capitalize on this poll, I think it is worth mentioning for the McC campaign to stop going after blue states and try to focus on red states. Obama has a fighting chance in VA, CO, FL, OH, IA, NM, NV, NC, IN, and MO. McCain cannot afford to lose any of those states because the ramifications would lead to a domino effect in that region. McC is wasting his money in Michigan and Pennsylvania, when in the meantime he should be focused on winning just the Bush states. Mark my words, this strategy will be the end of him. This will be the reason why McC loses. Not because of the economy, but because he focused too much on picking up more states than he needs. He only needs Bush 2000 and he wins.

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boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

"Boom does not like trends..."

No, I love them. For the past 2 days, Obama has been trending into the toilet.

On gallup, he is down from about +10 (single day) to probably +2 (single day) yesterday. That's a -8 'trend' in a few days.

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RussTC3:

Gallup's result was obvious. They have done this (up, down, up, down) for the entire year.

It's a good thing there are so many trackers now. Do any of ya remember Gallup from 2000? Wow. Brings back memories.

Regardless, a 4 point lead for Obama is still plenty strong. These 1 pt. fluctuations are just noise.

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Trosen:

I am also dumbfounded by McCain's insistence on pounding the pavement in IA. He has never lead there and Obama's lead has been consistently growing. I can't even remember many recet polls showing McCain within double digits there. Maybe they see it as a central front in the important OH/PA/IA/IN area.. but wouldn't it make much more sense to actually be campaigning and making speeches in a state where he still has a shot?

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boomshak:

@RussTC3:

Gallup in last 3 days:
O+8
O+6
O+4

One point fluctuations? To go from +6 to +4 in one day, Obama must have polled +2 yesterday. Without his one issue (economic fear), Obama is an empty suit.

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RussTC3:

You can't predict individual days for Gallup or Rasmussen or any of the other trackers. Only the Research 2000 tracker breaks down individual days.

You can guess (with accuracy if you know what you're doing), but you're just throwing out numbers.

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boskop:

Next debate:
OOPS, moderator better recuse herself!!

yup, gwen ifill, ms pbs herself is in the tank with obama, (See her new book about to hit the stands)

and she thinks she's not gonna cut off mccain or respond to every little lifted index finger of the superior obama?

even dickie heart lerhrer did this and he hasnt got a shingle hanging out under his chinny chin that he's for obama.

BUT Ifil does!!,. You watch, obama cuts off mccain by signalling with his little digit. mccain gets cut off or hemmed and hawed to cut it.

roll back your tape on the first debate and listen to lehrer do that every time mccain rebutted BUT NEVER to OBAMA THE NUTCH!!

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BOOMFAIL:

Battleground states are all that matters. I'll take a 6 point lead for Obama any day.

Landslide Baby Landslide

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newageblues:

yeah, boombox, you're pretty good (entertainment)

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Batony:

The only problem with Quinn. polls for Obama, is when Obama's numbers come down and they will, everyone is going to state McCain has momentum. Clearly Obama is not up by 15 in Pa, 8 in FL, and whatever it was in Ohio.

I think the Obama camp recognizes this also. Once this bailout passes, and people are not in crisis or panic mode, we will get a true sense of where the race is.

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kerrchdavis:

****, we're in DEEP trouble guys. Obama is only up an average of about 6-7 points at the moment. We're toast. If the election were held today, Obama would win all the Kerry states + NM + CO + IA + VA + FL + OH + NV + NC. This is serious.

What the hell is the Obama camp DOING wrong?

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PortlandRocks:

Boomshak last week McCain would be tied. Now it's SUNDAY. LOL man..you are a pathetic poll. Wow this struck me from the internal of he Time poll...

For McCain, the most troubling sign may come not from the details of the poll, which are grim for Republicans, but from the historical context. No Democrat has crossed the 50% threshold in the general election since before Ronald Reagan was elected, let alone do so a month before the election.

The fact that Obama's numbers are at this level after a bruising year of attacks from McCain and Hillary Clinton appears to validate his strategy of nurturing and protecting his "character" points. The poll found that Obama maintains a 60% favorable rating among all voters, and 61% think his election would restore a sense of hope and inspiration to the U.S.

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Trosen:

boskop,

If you think that's going to get any attention outside the Fox News sycophant realm, you're dreaming. They're running out of red herrings to throw. Not to mention, if the American public saw an obvious moderator bias in a debate, that would Help McCain TREMENDOUSLY. If Ifill is in the tank for Obama as you say, she's certianly smart enough not to do that.

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BOOMFAIL:

Time has Obama up 7%. Internals show: Among the poll's most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican National Convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%.

Intrade has Obama up 31.5% over McCain now. Good time to put money on McSame, hey boombatty?

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Mike_in_CA:

actually, you can't guess with any reasonable accuracy what Gallup's daily numbers are because they do not report decimals. Your daily guesses will have gigantic margin of errors. For example, Obama's support is 48 today. But it could be anywhere from 47.5 to 48.4, so already there is a +/- 0.5 MOE introduced ON TOP of the +/- 2 reported by Gallup. Each day has about +/- 3 MOE, but with decimal rounding, the expounds to +/- 5, not to mention, your actual guess could be off by a full point. Meaning the range of responses last night could span a range of +/- 6

(I realize the math has been oversimplified, but I can supply the necessary work if you want it).

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

"Boomshak last week McCain would be tied. Now it's SUNDAY. LOL man..you are a pathetic poll. Wow this struck me from the internal of he Time poll..."

Dude, you are actually quoting from Time's "Love Letters to Obama"? Face it, take ANYTHING from Tim/Newsweek/NYTimes and just shave 3 to 4 points off it and you just be close to the truth.

As far as I can tell, Time didn't show their weightings. Not surprised.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomfail

lol, yeah, what happened to him referring to intrade constantly?

Must be nice to just pick and choose what you want to see.

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KipTin:

Previous poll:

Democracy Corps (D) 9/22-24/08 1007 LV Obama 47 McCain 44


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macsuk:

The Gallup is not surprising being that the 27th just dropped from the survey and it was a huge polling night for Obama. Bottom line is it is a 5% National lead, Obama has many more ways to win, he also has a much better ground game, they are alreadty voting in Ohio, and he does not have a frigen idiot as a running mate.

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kerrchdavis:

"Dude, you are actually quoting from Time's "Love Letters to Obama"? Face it, take ANYTHING from Tim/Newsweek/NYTimes and just shave 3 to 4 points off it and you just be close to the truth."

Guys, this is a classic play from the boomshak guide to polls. He actually uses 2 or 3 different plays in this one sentence.

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kerrchdavis:

Boomshaks guide to polls:

1) If it doesn't support the candidate I support: fail.
2) If I don't like the internals: fail
3) If the weighting is different from Rasmussen: fail
4) If the weighting is the same as Rasmussen but I dont like it: fail
5) If its conducted by the MSM: fail
6) If it ISN'T conducted by the MSM but also doesn't support McCain: fail
7) If it is conducted by anything OTHER than a rightwinger: fail
8) If it IS conducted by right wingers but I don't like it: fail
9) If it shows any kind of momentum for Obama: fail
10) If there are 10 polls that go against the 1 poll I like, all 10 are outliers and thus: fail
11) All polling does not matter anyway because America is mid/right and does not elect a lefty.

pathetic. fail.

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BOOMFAIL:

@kerrchdavis

Is there even anything left for him to grasp onto?? Seems like there aren't any polls out there that aren't showing a strong shift to Obama. I agree with what another poster in another poll's comments stated about this being similar to Reagan in 1980. Obama has not only met, but EXCEEDED the threshold for being presidential. Let the mass exodus from McSame begin.

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nomorerepubs:

So McCain goes to the midwest and says that if elected he will abolish ethanol subsidies. This cat is just too smart. He's up about 2 in Indiana a state that loves ethonal and to a greater or lesser degree in other midwest states like Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and so forth, all states that he needs. This will not help him keep Indiana and Missouri.

And another tidbit from his speech he referrred to the bailout bill that he took ownership of and didn't pass as a "flawed" bill, those are his words, FLAWED.

He invested his own political capital into champoning a bill he now says was flawed, now that's leadership. McCain-Palin Country Last

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Viperlord:

Boom is failing epically, and continuing to deny the Obama trend, lol. Come on, what reality is he living in? I'm living in the here and now.

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RussTC3:

The MoE for Gallup is 2 points. The results could just as easily be 50/42 Obama, or even a 46/46 tie.

That's why it's important to average ALL the polls.

So, for instance, let's look at the results from 8/24 (the day before the Democratic convention) on a weekly basis (focusing just on the national trackers).

8/24-30
Obama 49.1
McCain 44.8
Obama +4.3

8/31-9/6
Obama 47.4
McCain 47.4
Tie

9/7-13
Obama 47.0
McCain 45.7
Obama +1.3

9/14-20
Obama 49.4
McCain 44.1
Obama +5.3

9/21-27
Obama 49.1
McCain 43.4
Obama +5.7

9/28-10/1 (end of week will be 10/4)
Waiting for the Pollster.com charts to update with Gallup's poll from today, but the trend remains. Obama has been ahead comfortably every since after the Republican convention.

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RussTC3:

'ever' since, not 'every' since.

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chgo1:

Planned Parenthood is beginning to run ads about Ms. Palin's policy as mayor of having sexual assault victims pay for their own forensic exams. This is also being covered by CNN.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/11/post_156_n_125711.html

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kkpollster:

Hey all you incendiary people. Mclatchy just came out with a poll that had this at plus 3 for Obama. ABC, GALLUP plus 4 for O, and Isop-Maclatchy plus 3 for O. As we have seen in this bizarre election neither candidate seems capable of holding onto their lead. The ABC poll and Ras have some insights, post debate Obama's ready to lead numbers actually went DOWN by five points in both polls. And ABC showed Mac regaining a narrow lead among Independents and White Women. So Obama is leading for sure, but it is in fact getting tighter again.

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