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US: Obama 49, McCain 45 (GWU 10/12-16)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/12-16, 08; 1,000 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 45

 

Comments
mandalorianarmy:

I've been reading Pollster for a long time and I've finally decided to sign up and comment.

First of all, it is amazing to me that boomshak can claim that the Hotline poll has been erratic when this poll has just as erratic. Looks like he will be wearing is Red State Colored Glasses for the next two and a half weeks.

Besides that the most important thing to remember is that this is an electoral race not a popular vote race. Remember what happened to Hillary in the primaries? Obama has his eye on the prize and his position in the battleground states is going to be extremely hard for McCain to topple.

If Obama hold all of the Kerry states plus Iowa (which looks extrememly likely) then all Obama has to do is pick up one of the following battleground states to win:

Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri or Indiana.

Obama can also win if he gains Colorado plus New Mexico, Nevada, or West Virginia.

What McCain is doing in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is completely beyond me. Early voting has started or will be starting in most states by next week. As far as the 6 states that can put Obama over the top, according to RCP he is leading in 5 of them. So you tell me who is in a better position to win.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Yep.

National polls become less relevant every day. All that matter are the state polls, which show Obama with several comfortable paths to victory and McCain as a hitorical long-shot candidate.

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muckinello:

Let's work hard Dems!

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1magine:

Ras:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days. The last time McCain was up by even a single point was one month ago today (see trends).

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VivalaRevolucion:

Obama is going down at a vertiginous rate.. Clearly, the curves are forking back in McCain's direction for the last few days ..

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Dan:

Manda ...

You are right that Obama needs to win any one of those states, although VA looks like his best shot. Barring that, NM appears to be in the bag, as does NH, bringing him to 263 (264 if he wins all of ME). NV alone would not be enough, and I'd be really surprised if he wins WV. So, watching the early returns, VA will be the barometer. Since the polls show Obama with the largest lead of any of the battleground states, if he can't win VA, I doubt he'll win OH, FL, MO, NC, or IN. Then we'll have to waint until the mountain polls close.

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MDB1974:

To play the Devil's advocate (the devil being red) for what ever reason state polls tend to follow national polls. Now, there may be an exception to this that Obama is pouring massive resources into the states and letting up nationally. One thing about the National polls though is that Obama is holding his 49-52 percent. McCain has creeped a bit closser but that is by moving higher up in the 40s. It appears that 1-2 (maybe even 3) percent will go 3rd party meaning Obamas been at a winning percentage nationally now for 20 plus days. That is significant. This is not over but McCain's opportunities are dwindling.

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mandalorianarmy:

Dan:

I would be concerned if Obama was losing Virginia on election night but I wouldn't panic. Watch out for Florida on election night. Just because one of the battleground states falls doesn't mean they all will.

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cinnamonape:

The RNSC just pulled out of Colorado today. Given that McCain is struggling with funding and is reliant on the support of National Committees that's tantamount to calling in the chips there.

I think that what we might be seeing regarding some of the fluctuations in these national polls are simply responses in heavily red or blue states where the "base" responds more solidly. Thus McCain might be getting a bit more support from the right (rather than those stating "undeclared" or Barr). But that's simply because Obama is not even challenging in those states.

Why try to influence Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah or Idaho? Sure one could add to one's national poll results by doing so...but it sort of loses the big picture.

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DTM:

@MDB1974

True, the national polls tend to be leading indicators due to sporadic polling in the states.

But to respond to your "devil", one thing to note is that the national polls are actually more just stabilizing around where they were starting last week, as opposed to actually reversing the trends. And obviously if the state polls merely stabilize at around this level as well, that is not good news for McCain. Rather, he needs a large scale reversal of the trends.

Another thing to note is that there can in fact be small shifts in the distribution of national support over time. So, with Obama starting to massively outspend McCain in the "battleground" states, it really wouldn't be a surprise if any gains McCain did make nationally came a bit disproportionately in non-battleground states. That doesn't mean McCain's necessary reversal of the national trend wouldn't show up at all in battleground states, but it does mean that he may need an even greater reversal than he would have needed if he wasn't being outspent by so much.

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DTM:

@MDB1974

Oh, and I should acknowledge you already made essentially the same point about spending, but I wanted to put the point in my own words as I responded to your "devil".

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KipTin:

Read more carefully/do your homework.. cinnamonape.... Nothing to do with McCain.

It says RNSC (not RNC) which is the Republican National SENATE Committee. They were only focusing on the Senate Race in Colorado. And Udall is consistently well ahead.

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