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US: Obama 49, McCain 45 (GWU 10/16, 10/19-22)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/16, 10/19-22, 08; 1,000 LV 3.1%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 49, McCain 45

 

Comments
political_junki:

BOOM:
It was supposed to be 1 not 4 from your prediction right ? :)

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sunnymi:

I think once 10/16 falls off the tracker the lead will increase further. I am waiting for tomorrow's number.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Boom

Just another SWING and a miss...

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sunnymi:

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), a strong supporter of Sen. John McCain, told CNN's Campbell Brown that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin isn't quite ready to be commander in chief.

BROWN: Do you think she's qualified to be president?

SCHWARZENEGGER: I think that she will get to be qualified.

BROWN: She will get there? What do you mean? She's not ready yet?

SCHWARZENEGGER: By the time that she is sworn in I think she will be ready.

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mysticlaker:

Should we buy boom some flowers so he feels better?

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

Boom

Oops, guess not.

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M2:

I just read in the Zogby poll thread this was 44-42 instead of what it apparently is, 49-45. That makes more sense, because there's no way in hell 14% are other/undecided at this point.

Kind of sad when the defense of McCain revolves around lying about poll numbers.

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The_Huntsman:

Under two weeks to go now. The "Obama will be tested" and "Palin's 150K wardrobe" piece hit simultaneously but it looks like the clothes story got more traction.

I think this is it for McCain -- Republicans are starting to gripe that he should just be focusing on helping out with Senate and House races. Even if they start to hit Rev. Wright, now it will just look like desperation. Too late now for a major 527 expenditure too.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Just a little thursday chin up for Boomdunce

http://www.despair.com/stup24x30pri.html

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Atomique:

Aww snap, McSame still can't find his way above that 45% ceiling. Twelve days to go, Senator. The clock is ticking!

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mac7396:

These numbers are incorrect. Boomshak said that GWU is still O+2. And he gets his info straight from the most fair and balanced name in news, The Drudge Report.

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JCK:

Let's play today's Pick the Outlier!

Rasmussen Reports 10/20 - 10/22 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/20 - 10/22 1208 LV 2.9 52 40 Obama +12
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/19 - 10/21 2299 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 10/18 - 10/21 1330 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

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OneAngryDwarf:

Interesting article from a former McCain campaign manager:

Murphy's latest critique of his former boss is a post on Time's Swampland blog offering sarcastic potential responses to the news of Palin's $150,000 makeover:

I saw the RNC statement on Gov. Palin's $150,000 clothing bender on the RNC's tab. This caper is gonna make for a long day at the office for the good folks at the RNC/McCain press operation. Thought I'd offer a little help in a humorous vein; some other possible spin lines for the RNC.

1.) What you sneering critics in the liberal MSM fail to see here is... a Jobs Program! Saks floorwalkers, cashiers, a team of sweating porters to haul the merchandise from the store to the motorcade... chiropractors to treat those porters. Sarah Palin knows how to create jobs!

2.) What's the difference between a Pit Bull and a Hockey Mom? You can feed a pit-bull for 483 years with 150 grand.

3.) Still cheaper than Mitt Romney's hair products. We're saving money here...

4.) William Ayres is a terrorist!

5.) New ad slogan: "Clothes for Gov. Palin? $150,000. Time machine to go back two months to late August and ask what the Hell were Schmidt and Davis thinking when they cooked up this idea and sold it to McCain? Priceless."

Hilarious...

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carl29:

Poor boomy...this morning he was all for GWU/Battleground, and now? I imagine this pollster is on the "bad/biased/failed-pollster" list for the day. Obama/Biden 08'

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Chester:

On the Pollster national trend line the McCain bounce has flopped back into a droppy little sag! Very old-man ish and quite funny!

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

Is it me or is pollster taking a long time to post some of these poll numbers?

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JCK:

@carl29

I'm sure one of the seven or so tracking polls will narrow today. And it will be proof of the Obama collapse/McCain surge.

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Chester:

Okay, so the Big 10 numbers are high.. but consider how tight the race was at their last poll (Sept 19), when it showed a "statistical dead heat" in 7 of the states. If how can we explain trend lines (using the same methodology) that are so pronounced, replicated 10 times, and replicated again by Quinnipiac!

How do we know that today is not simply the state polls catching up to where Obama really is? After all, he plays better in the battleground than he does nationally; a 7-8 point national lead probably should compute to something like this.

http://www.nbc15.com/news/headlines/28612974.html

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Chester:

In the Quinnipiac Fl. poll O leads 77% - 20% among Jews! So much for Jews not backing Obama!

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

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boomshak:

WTF?

Obama 49, McCain 45 is WRONG according to the graphic. Where the hell is Pollster getting this Obama 49, McCain 45 number?

The graphic in the link says 44-42.

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boomshak:

Where the f*ck do they get 49-45? Go to the graphic. It is clearly 44-42. is this yet another Pollster typo?

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carl29:

Shock poll: Obama and McCain tie among rural voters!!!!!!!!!

That's the GOP stronghold :-)!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49M5SF20081023

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carl29:

Boomshak, Real Clear Politics also has GWU/Battleground Obama 49% McCain 45%.

GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1
Obama 49 McCain 45 Obama +4

*I think you are looking at yesterday's numbers. But don't worry, if it makes you happy, so it be. Everyone is wrong: The right number is McCain 44% Obama 42%, like it? :-)!!

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boomshak:

Bizarre. There are two completely different graphics up for the same day.

This one says 44-42 (13% U):
http://www.tarrance.com/files/10.23-Presentation-graphics.pdf

This one says 49-45 (5% U):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102308_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

The first one is from Tarrance Groups website (the group doing the poll). The second one is just some graphic that RCP has.

Bizarre. Which is it?

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carl29:

@boomy,

"Bizarre. Which is it?" The one you like better :-) Don't you see that Obama is just crumbling? OMG!!!!

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boomshak:

@carl29:

But WTF did RCP get their graphic. It is completely different than the graphic on the pollsters website?

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carl29:

boomshak,

You don't get my point: It doesn't matter which one it is. Obama is crumbling don't you see it? Are you getting ready for your party on Nov.4th? OMG!!!!

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DTM:

The chart in the "Presentation Graphics" PDF doesn't show all the tracker data, and ends with the 10/22 tracker data--which was yesterday.

RCP has the 10/23 update.

Hence, the difference.

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mrzookie:

They're 2 different charts. 44/42 is called "unaided ballot" and is only published once a week. Almost looks as if they're doing a weekly poll and a tracker. Dunno.

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andre3000:

@boomshak:

from my reading GWU are asking twice who respondents vote for. The 44-42 number is the answer to "BO or JM?" The 49-45 number is the answer to "BO&JB or JM&SP?"

Someone else can answer why those should be so different...

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DTM:

By the way, my guess is that RCP gets an email with the release of the PDF.

At the website, what we should be looking for is a url like this:

http://www.tarrance.com/files/2-way-ballot-trender-10-21.pdf

But for 10-22 instead of 10-21. So far it doesn't seem to be up, and instead there is the "Presentation Graphics" PDF.

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boomshak:

OK, MYSTERY SOLVED (and this is weird)...

I just called Tarrance Group to clear this up.

The 44/42 number is the result when the Pollster just asks the question: "Who will you be voting for?" (without giving any candidate's names).

The 49/48 number is the result when the Pollster lists the names of all candidate (including 3rd parties) and asks, "Who will you be voting for, Obama, McCain, Barr, etc?"

It's hard to imagine there would actually be a difference but I guess Americans are really that dumb that they don't know who the candidates are.

CONCLUSION:
Anyway, Tarrance Group said that the "unaided" question is stronger because the person can actually name the candidate they prefer without being aided with a list of candidates.

I stand by the 44/42 number as being correct.

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boomshak:

Typo:

"The 49/48 number" should be "The 49/45 number"

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maizelightning:

My two cents on BG this morning, looking at the Public Tables, it looks to me like BG has it O44/42 without leaners, O48/45 WITH leaners.

So, +2 without, +3 with???

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boomshak:
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DTM:

@boomshak

Thanks for the explanation of the "unaided ballot" question.

I'm not sure why someone would think that is the more relevant question, however, since in the voting booth the names will be listed on the ballot.

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boomshak:

I explained it above.

The 44/42 number is when they just ask who you will vote for (unaided). The 48/45 is where they ask who you will vote for from a list of names.

The RCP number is higher, 49/45, because they don't allow 3rd party candidates in their numbers and decided to adjust the TG 48/45 aided number to 49/45 for some reason.

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boomshak:

@DTM:

It just shows greater dedication to a candidate and thus make the voter more likely to actually go out and vote.

If a voter doesn't even know who to vote for without knowing the names, will he stand in line 4 hours to vote?

Anyway, it's 44/42, not the 49/45 bullsh*t.

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cambridge blue:

"Anyway, it's 44/42, not the 49/45 bullsh*t."

Keep moving those goalposts.

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s.b.:

The unaided ballot has a two point spread. With Nader and Barr its 3 points. So any way you look at it, it's less than the four point spread above.

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boomshak:

@cambridge blue:

Do you want to know which poll Tarrance Group thinks is more accurate?

The 44/42 number is on page 2 of the poll (the first poll shown).
The 49/45 number is on page 12.

Which do you think they believe is the correct number?

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DTM:

A pollster's likely voter screen should be sufficient to figure out who will actually show up. Again, voters will in fact have the aid of the names on the ballot, so eliminating that factor just seems to be introducing an unnecessary source of error.

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DTM:

As far as I can tell they use the standard aided question for their daily tracker. They appear to only post results for their unaided question sporadically (about weekly). Presumably they chose what they deemed to be more accurate for the daily tracker.

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Mister H:

Boomshak:

You are now insisting that the "unaided" number is more realistic (likely because it favors your candidate).

But I ask you this:

Where in the great United States is somebody going to vote where they are NOT aided by having a list of the candidates in front of them?

In other words, you are saying that if the candidate's names aren't listed, that is more realistic data. But you can't vote in an election where the candidates aren't listed!

I think what you are failing to realize is that the "unaided" question is just meant to guage those who automatically vote Democratic or Republican, etc...regardless of who is running.

In other words, people are voting for actual candidates this year, as always.

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MancJon:

Who cares about the national numbers anyway? OK, I do, a bit, but it's the state numbers that matter, and Obama is WAY up in nearly all so called battleground states McCain needs to win.

To avoid any confusion, there are three relevant graphs in the tarrance pdf - unaided shows 44-42; aided shows 48-45; and aided (no 3rd parties) shows 49-45. Personally I think the second of these is the most accurate, as Nader and Barr are on most ballots this year, but still, 3 points gap on battleground is pretty good for Obama. Remember, they still had McCain winning by this metric on September 25th.

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boomshak:

@Mister H:
Tarrance Group thinks the unaided number is best. It is the first number they list. The number RCP uses their 12th number.

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MancJon:

@Boomshak:

They probably just list their numbers in the order the questions were asked.

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Mister H:

@Mister H:
Tarrance Group thinks the unaided number is best. It is the first number they list. The number RCP uses their 12th number.


Nice try, Boomshak, but NO.

They list them out based on the ORDER OF THE QUESTIONS.

LOL...You can't ask the question WITH names first, and then try to surprise them with a question WITHOUT them later on. That isn't how it works. You poll first with the idea of gauging the politcal climate....THEN you ask the specific question.

Try again.

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zoot:

Internals (or what I think are internals) are at http://www.gwu.edu/~newsctr/battlegroundoct2008/GWU-BG-Tracking-questionnaire-10-23.pdf

Take a look at D-10 and surrounding questions. We're talking about 45% of the 79% of respondents identifying a church affiliation who identify themselves as evangelicals! Fully 50% of that 79% attend church once a week or more often.Not much question where their sympathies are.

How do these people put together their polling groups? That may be representative of some sections of the Midwest or Colorado Springs, but it doesn't compute nationally.

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cinnamonape:

I would suspect that anyone who would not know who is running in the election by now would not be "Likely Voters".

In fact they wouldn't even know when the election is, where to find their precinct to vote in, and wouldn't even know if by being "registered" meant something about their sex crime status.

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